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Dax daily: 29 Jul 2019 Welcome to the first analysis of the 31st week. Friday's session turned out really nice. We found buyers at a good Thursday close support level and there was an intraday low formed there as well. Besides only one significant short candle at 2pm, Dax was drifting upwards for the whole intraday trading. The price then closed near its high. Important zones Resistance: 12 421, 12 479 Support: 12 354 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking Friday's high is 87% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, we have a high statistical probability of breaking Friday's high, which is also distanced relatively far away. Long trades then have a clear target. Contrary, should the Friday's low be broken, then the previous hypothesis becomes invalid. The chances of having both swings retested are as low as 7%. Taking advantage of shorting today's price, we can use a pullback around 12 421 and then 12 479.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 26 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session started by the gap closure, just as we pinpointed. The resistance at 12 576 was retested twice and then the price action was dominated by fundamentals. The ECB President Mario Draghi hinted a possible rate cut into negative values to tackle Eurozone's economic stagnation. This scepticism influenced the German stock index DAX as well and we saw this reflected by a prudent downfall by more than 250 points. The session was closed at 12 344. Important zones Resistance: 12 437, 12 470 Support: 12 338 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is only 38% Macroeconomic releases 14:30 CEST - USA - Advance GDP q/q Today's session hypothesis Yesterday's volatile activity has dramatically reduced our estimations and today's hypothesis. The moves were caused by fundamental news. The statistical application signifies the gap closure probability of only 38%, yet the price around 12 338 became a balanced consensus for market participants. That's one reason this zone could be retested today as well. Besides, we have enough room for the long correction all the way towards 12 437.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 24 Jul 2019 Our Statistical Application did a great job again. As per the statistical probabilities, it was very likely that Dax would continue its upward move and so it happened. The price went up just to slow down at the resistance level of 12 380 and then went over the roof, making a strong upward momentum for the entire intraday trading. Important zones Resistance: 12 540, 12 576 Support: 12 437, 12 338 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 69% The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 90% Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs Today's session hypothesis Yesterday's session was very bullish. The statistics play for today's continuation as well. The combination of probabilities suggests we could retest 12 541. Another resistance we have lays around 12 576. The start of the session is great as well as the price drops slightly which is a positive key for us as the long trades have a better filling. Let's not forget that although we have a strong bullish confluence, the market might go its own way. Be careful around PMIs releases from Eurozone.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 23 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session was fully dominated by bulls. They managed to grab the momentum taking Dax slightly above the resistance level of 12 330 that we highlighted yesterday. This zone functioned with a slight delay as the price corrected shortly after. The session was closed in black numbers priced 12 293. Important zones Resistance: 12 380 Support: 12 234, 12 200, 12 330 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The gap has 50 points and the statistical probability for closing is only 38% Macroeconomic releases London session - new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will be announced. This might affect mainly GBP, EUR and potentially DAX too. Today's session hypothesis This morning started with an ascending gap. Sized 50 points, this one has a low probability for being closed as the statistics suggest the 38% rate chance from the historical occurrence. We can speculate to see rather a bullish domination. In such a scenario, we'll await the retest of 12 380 which could also function as the buyers target zone and the reversal level for sellers.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 22 Jul 2019 Both buyers and sellers could take good advantage of Friday's session. Dax first headed upwards and stopped at 12 330 where the price sharply reversed. Bears were held down at 12 200, slightly below our mentioned support zone. The session ended near its open priced 12 227. Important zones Resistance: 12 330, 12 380 Support: 12 234, 12 200 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today's session was opened at Friday's close, without any surprise gap. Dax is now edging at the S/R zone at 12 234 and this might be the deciding factor for today's direction estimation. Should sellers dominate right away, the logical target lays as a support level around 12 200. Very straight forward, if buyers are stronger from the beginning, the path is open all the way back to 12 329. Mondays are generally calm from the volatility perspective and same is expected for today as well.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 19 Jul 2019 We welcome all of our readers with this last day of the week analysis. Dax respected our zones perfectly yesterday. Today's price opens at yesterday's resistance zone and with a big ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 380 Support: 12 234 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax opened with an ascending gap and continues heading upwards. The first resistance level where we could find some sellers lays at 12 380. However, it is more probable that bears will first attempt to close the gap between today's and yesterday's sessions. The level of 12 234 is likely to function as our support where bulls could prove their presence and take Dax higher.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 17 Jul 2019Tuesday's session could be characterized as a lazy and boring one for most of its duration. Dax started by closing the gap, followed by the entry of sellers who took the price down to the support level at 12 350. This zone functioned perfectly and the price bounced as expected. There was even an intra-day low formed there. Dax opened with a descending gap this morning, which is already closed at the time we write this. Important zones Resistance: 12494, trend line Support: 12 339 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis If we disregard the Monday's rocket move, Dax is relatively slow from the beginning of the summer holiday. For today, we have three zones nearby which could play some importance in the price action. On the long side, we see a resistance at 12 494. If we find sellers at the trend-line, it is likely the price will slow down inside yesterday's session range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 16 Jul 2019 Monday's session started wild and many traders were facing problems with unexpected volatility. Dax first spiked upwards quite prudently, just to correct itself soon after. If you remember, we suggested not to trade yesterday as the price development was unpredictable. Good to those who took a break. Dax also broke both Friday's low and high, which had a very low probability. Today we open with a smaller descending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12494 Support: 12 350 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 11:00 CEST - German ZEW Economic sentiment Today's session hypothesis Today we can expect the breakout of yesterday's high, which has a slightly increased statistical probability of 64% and then we'll await the retest of resistance zone at 12 494 and closing outside of yesterday's range. We hope to find buyers around 12 350 which is an intraday support level from yesterday. Should the price break yesterday's high and return right into a Monday's range, it is likely Dax will slow down and oscillate.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 15 Jul 2019 Friday's price action ended prematurely, soon after the session opened and Dax fell by some 80 points. Following was a sideway movement and closing in the middle of the intra-day range. Today we open with an ascending gap which might soon be closed. Important zones Resistance: NIL Support: 12 277 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today's analysis will be slightly plain as Dax doesn't provide many clues for any further development. There is one notable support level nearby and this is laying at 12 277. There is no resistance to pinpoint, statistics idle and the price action is dull too. We wish you all a good start to this trading week and be safe in the markets.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 12 Jul 2019 This is the last analysis of the week. As expected, Dax initially declined yesterday and closed the gap. Buyers entered at our support but didn't last long. After some 35 points, buyers were overpowered by sellers again. Following was a retest of 12 328 level which was broken out by some 16 points before buyers flexed their muscles. Today we open with an ascending gap, which is already closed at the time we write this. Important zones Resistance: 12 500 Support: 12 291 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis After today's open, Dax started its downward momentum quite strongly. The first hour already has a range of some 60 points, which is unusual. Beware of some trend reversal signals. We have a nice support zone a 12 290 where we might find some buyers. In any way, it's better to be less aggressive in the long direction today.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 10 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session turned out to follow our hypothesis only partially. Dax started its decline towards 12 391, but buyers didn't use this level to enter the market. Following was a descend towards the second support zone in a row, laying at 12 326, yet this price wasn't reached and Dax reversed upwards. In the end, Dax closed approximately in the middle of its range. The support level of 12 391 functioned properly after a pullback at 2:30pm. Important zones Resistance: 12 500 Support: 12 326 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases USA - 20:00 CEST - FOMC Meeting Minutes Today's session hypothesis Today we have a very high statistical probability for closing the gap. We could also expect the resistance at 12 500 being retested and attracting sellers. Yesterday's high breakout has a probability of 64% . Another nice zone nearby is the support level at 12 326 where we might see a bullish correction. Also, we have a higher probability of 77% for closing inside yesterday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 09 Jul 2019 Yesterday's session was very nice from our point of view. As we highlighted, Dax first went up to close the gap at the resistance level of 12 564. The price then reversed exemplarily and the high intra-day swing was formed as well. Today, Dax opens with a descending gap and so far, the momentum indicates the retest of the support level laying at 12 391. Important zones Resistance: 12 504 Support: 12 391, 12 329 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Right now, we are in the gap territory formed between 28 Jun and 01 Jul. For this reason, we anticipate a move towards 12 391 where we could find some buyers. If the support level of 12 391 doesn't hold bearish momentum, then another suitable buy zone is at 12 326. On the other hand, if bulls dominate the market from the beginning, it is likely the price will bounce off the 12 504 for some nice correction. If that doesn't happen, the probability of breaking yesterday's high is still least likely, with only 9% chance of this happening.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 04 Jul 2019 Welcome to the last analysis of this week. Tomorrow's analysis will be skipped due to a national holiday. Yesterday's statistics for breaking Tuesday's high was successfully passed. Dax rose all day and closed near its intra-day high. Today, we open with a smaller descending gap. Important zones Resistance: NIL Support: 12 597, 12 543 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 90% Macroeconomic releases USA - National holiday of Independence day Today's session hypothesis Today's plan is pretty straight forward. Just as yesterday, we have an increased statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high, hence all the trades have a clear target. We could find some buyers at 12 597 or even lower at 12 543. In case bulls are aggressive enough, it is likely they will start aiming higher right from the beginning of the session.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 03 Jul 2019 Yet another session without a gap. Sellers attempted to retest prices from the last week, yet to no avail. It was just around 12 475 when Dax turned around from its slight downward correction and eventually closed where it opened the daily session. Important zones Resistance: 12 600 Support: 12 391, 12 428 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 83% Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs Today's session hypothesis We'll base our today's analysis on the fact we have a higher statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high. Thanks to yesterday's close, the odds incline the price might go higher, beyond yesterday's high. Our statistical application indicates that such situation happened in 83% of historical occurrences. This is a strong indication that plays for bull traders. Should this scenario happen, we estimate that 12 600 could be targeted as well. If not, the price decline towards 12 475 or even lower towards 12 428 is likely in a reverse situation.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
2
Dax daily: 02 Jul 2019 The resistance zone at 12 601 we mentioned yesterday turned out to function perfectly. After retesting the 12 601 level, Dax went sloping down. The weekend gap has been filled from it's third only and today the price opens without a gap. Important zones Resistance: NIL Support: 12 385, 12 428, 12 508 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis There are quite a few support zones today, yet no resistance. The magnet on the lower prices is still 12 385. On the way down, buyers could enter around 12 428 and 12 385. The support zone at 12 508 could function as a bumper to head for further higher levels. At 12 428, we might see a correction, whereas the 12 385 level might function as a reversal signal. Thanks to a good distance towards 12 385, this hypothesis can be a multiple-day plan.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 27 Jun 2019Yesterday, we've had a higher probability of 83% for breaking the previous day low. Although the odds were in our favour, the breakout of Tuesday's low didn't happen. Instead, Dax shot straight up and we've only found some sellers at the mentioned resistance zone of 12 282. Today, the price opens with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 44 Support: 12 229, 12 191 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability for closing inside yesterday's range is 87% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, our chances are pretty balanced from the Price Action perspective. One thesis suggests finding buyers and head to a resistance level of 12 344, where the shift of powers could happen and the price to return to yesterday's range. On the other hand, we have a pretty similar scenario where sellers could push the price lower to reach the support level of 12 229, where the price is likely to bounce from that zone and retest the 12 344. Should the price reach all the way towards 12 191 and the market participants losing momentum, it is likely Dax would rather slow down.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 26 Jun 2019 We welcome all to a mid-week analysis. The support level at 12 191 we mentioned yesterday functioned perfectly as this was retested right after the open. Contrary, the resistance zone of 12 230 didn't have much significance. Dax found some bearish pressures at a higher price of 12 266 and following was a downside move to a very near intra-day low. Important zones Resistance: 12 282 Support: 12 120, 12 049 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability for breaking yesterday's low is 83% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis For today, our major key for establishing the price projection is the high statistical probability for the breakout of yesterday's low. Hence all sell positions have a clearly defined target. Another target to keep an eye on is the support level around 12 120 where we hope to find some buyers.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 25 Jun 2019 Yesterday's session met our expectations. We've had a very high probability for breaking Friday's low, which eventually happened. Dax was steadily in a slight downtrend for the whole session and the price closed near the support level of 12 219. Today, Dax opened below this zone with a descending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 230 Support: 12 191, 12 120 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today we expect the entrance of buyers right at 12 191, which is now being retested. We target closing the gap too. If there are no buyers at 12 191, the momentum could escalate towards 12 120. Should the market participants stay within yesterday's range, the price action is likely to slow down or oscillate within that range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 24 Jun 2019 Welcome to a new trading week. Friday's session turned out as expected, but unfortunately, our zones didn't get a chance to play a role. The resistance at 12 337 and 12 373 didn't attract any sellers. They entered a bit higher at 12 409 and continued to dominate intra-day price action. Dax then closed just short of the support level laying at 12 219. Today, we open with a strong ascending candle and with a long gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 350 Support: 12 219, 12 191 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking Friday's low stands at 96% Macroeconomic releases 10:00 CEST - German Ifo Business Climate Today's session hypothesis Today we have a very high probability for breaking Friday's low. For this reason, every short signal has a clear target. If and once that happens, we could find some buyers at 12 219 or 12 191. Even though we have such a high probability for a certain market occurrence, don't forget to always manage your risk and don't bet too much on one card.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 18 Jun 2019Monday’s session has seen no success, mainly due to the fact Dax hasn’t moved anywhere and the price was just ranging in a narrow band of 70 points. We haven’t even seen the retest of Friday’s high or low. Today, Dax opens with a small gap which is already closed. Important zones Resistance: 12 148 Support: 11 987 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 11:00 CEST – German ZEW Economic Sentiment Today’s session hypothesis Due to the fact the price hasn’t gone anywhere yesterday, our hypothesis will remain intact. Just as yesterday, the gap has already been closed so we’re short of one daily target. If we find bearish momentum, the price could head lower to retest the weaker support at 11 987. Talking about higher levels, there is one weaker resistance level at 12 148, however, if the price gets all the way there, it is likely Dax will retest the Friday’s high and the zone of 12 200.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 14 Jun 2019 Thursday’s session has been considerably more active compared to the previous day. Dax first headed straight up without stopping at our first resistance zone. The second level of resistance laying at 12 194 functioned perfectly and the price even formed an intra-day high there. Following was a bounce back to our first level, now being a support zone where we found some buyers taking the price slightly up again. Today we open with the gap being already closed. Important zones Resistance: 12 264 Support: 12 121, 12 054 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today, we hope to descend towards 12 121 just to get buyers to take the price higher. In case Dax gets below 12 121, it is more likely the price will slow down in the consolidation area from Wednesday. If bulls are strong, then the first target is the swing high from 11 Jun, followed by a retest of the resistance level at 12 264.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
1
Dax daily: 13 Jun 2019 Yesterday’s session can be characterized as a very lazy one. Dax first took a slight climb towards our resistance at 12 117 where we found some sellers. Following was a 55 points move down. That’s about it, nothing more interesting from the price action perspective as the price was ranging lazily for the rest of the session duration. The overall intra-day range was below the average 70 points. Today’s gap has already been closed. Important zones Resistance: 12 144, 12 194 Support: 12 012 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Due to the fact the price hasn’t moved anywhere yesterday, our zones remain unchanged. If the price reaches 12 144, we expect to see some bearish push towards 12 012. Considering the fact there are no relevant news scheduled for the day, the session might turn out similarly to that of yesterday.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 12 Jun 2019 Our analysis yesterday met our expectations. Dax did not close the gap and went right up towards the 12 207 level where we saw some sellers taking over. There was even an intra-day high formed at 12 207. Following was a descend almost to the open level and today we open with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 144, 12 194, 12 117 Support: 12 012 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today we can expect a move upwards to close the gap, which doesn’t have the highest statistical probability and therefore we hope to find sellers as soon as around 12 117. If Dax goes above 12 144, then the breakout of yesterday’s high has a very small probability of just 7%. In case sellers dominate the market, we could potentially find buyers around a nice support level of 12 012.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO