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Dax daily: 07 Jun 2019 Yesterday’s resistance at 12 064 functioned absolutely exemplary. There was even an intra-day high formed at this level and the price bounced some 170 points southward. Dax has eventually found some buyers just before the support retest at 11 861 and closed the day mid-range. Important zones Resistance: 12 139 Support: 11 861, 11 790 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 14:30 CEST – USD – Non-Farm Payrolls Today’s session hypothesis Today’s probabilities are quite strong to close the gap and we estimate this to happen yet in the London trading session. All our zones are relatively distanced so in the end, the price doesn’t need to reach any. From the Price Action perspective, the price is rather to continue long towards 12 139 where the shift of power is likely. Beware of today’s labour market news from the United States and Canada being released at 14:30 Central European Summer Time – CEST, as these fundamental news could trigger some volatility for Dax.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
1
Dax daily: 06 Jun 2019 Yesterday’s session started without a gap and after a short correction, buyers really headed upwards to higher levels. Unfortunately, the momentum wasn’t strong enough to reach our target at 12 064. The session was then closed near it’s open at 11 986. Important zones Resistance: 12 064 Support: 11 861 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 13:45 CEST – EUR – Main Refinancing Rate & Monetary Policy Statement 14:30 CEST – ECB Press Conference Today’s session hypothesis Today’s session opened with a gap sized 34 points. This size of the gap has approximately 50 – 65% probability for closing, so no strong edge here, yet such a scenario would be nice for this morning. For today, we expect a weaker activity up till the ECB rate decision and the Monetary Policy Statement. The more important though will be Draghi’s presser later on at 2.30pm CEST. The ECB’s bias could influence the rest of today’s price action. On the long side, we still target the 12 064 level. On the short side, our focus is on the support level of 11 861.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
1
Dax daily: 05 Jun 2019 Yesterday’s session is a nice confirmation of a clear support level laying at 11 620. After the price broke out of the 11 778 level, Dax shot up to hit 11 860. The momentum was strong enough and that level didn’t slow the price at all. Bulls went even higher to close at the intra-day high at 11 985, which is btw one of the resistance levels we previously highlighted. Important zones Resistance: 12 064, 11 986 Support: 11 861, 11 778 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:15 – 10:00 CEST – Eurozone PMIs Today’s session hypothesis The price opened the day without a gap. It is very likely we see some initial correction of yesterday’s bullish momentum, followed by another upside move. If we go long, we shall target the resistance level of 12 064. This price was important in the past and this confirms the occurrence count there. If bulls are not that strong today, we estimate a sideways price action, along with the 11 860 level functioning as our support zone.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 04 Jun 2019 There was no resistance formed at Friday’s close. On the other hand, the support level laying at 11 620 that we spoke about in previous analysis functioned as expected. We found a new low here and the control was taken back by buyers who took the price towards the resistance at 11 788. This price zone was also mentioned in our yesterday’s analysis and it turned out Dax respected that very nicely too. The price bounced back from there and the session ended at 11 740. Important zones Resistance: 11 788 Support: 11 620 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today’s session got open pretty much without a gap. The price hovers just below the important resistance level at 11 788 and it appears this could be retested again. Should the price go above that, the next target will be 11 860. If the price does not break 11 788, we anticipate the action below this level in the range of 11 620 – 11 788 without any significant volatility.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 29 May 2019 Bulls were facing a sad scenario yesterday as the selling pressures continued through the gap closure. The price stalled lower at the support level of 11 985. In the end, bears broke out that zone and Dax closed on its intra-day low at 11 965. Important zones Resistance: 12 063 Support: 11 861, 11 922 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 41% Macroeconomic releases 09:00 CEST – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks 09:55 CEST – German Unemployment Change Today’s session hypothesis Today, the price opened with pretty much the same gap size as yesterday, but in the opposite direction. The descending gap doesn’t have any strong statistics for closing, but this was very similar yesterday. As support levels, we identified zones laying around 12 922 and 11 861. These levels could have a significance in today’s price action development. If the price goes below 11 922, we estimate the retest of 11 861 with an increased probability. In the opposite scenario, our bias would only be the closure of the gap, targeting 11 965.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 28 May 2019 For yesterday we were more supportive of the buyers, but their strength didn’t last long. The sellers were able to correct the growing movement and eventually, Dax moved sideways. We closed at 12 064. The last trading hours were absolutely without volatility. Important zones Resistance: 12 142 Support: 12 064, 11 958, 11 922 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing the gap is 39% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis Today began with an ascending gap of 41 points. The last two sessions are systematically rising to higher prices and today’s gap is a continuation of this action. Zones from the past analysis are still valid, so the first resistance that we should be careful about is 12 142 price. Today’s probabilities suggest not to close the gap and rather head higher. If the gap is closed, the price of 12 064 will now be a luxurious support level where new buyers can comfortably step in.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 347)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Sawcruhteez Strategies: Comprehensive Trading Strategy - Consensio | Comprehensive Trading Process | How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods Consensio: Fully bullish Patterns: 4h ascending triangle Horizontals: R: $8,171 and $8,300 | S: $7,968 and $7887 Trendline: Bottom of ascending triangle Parabolic SAR: D: $6,258 (recently broke up SAR) Futures Curve: Contango Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.04% BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to be bouncing from support TD’ Sequential: W G7 Ichimoku Cloud: Inside weekly cloud with bullish kumo twist Relative Strength Index: Lower highs and lower lows on the daily Average Directional Index: Has rolled over and continues to pull back. If we are going to get another rally then I would expect this to roll back up above 25. Price Action: 24h: +0.24% | 2w: +15.2% | 1m: +57.18% Summary: Markets have be consolidating for about two weeks. This is when many market participants will get lulled to sleep. During times like this it is very important to remain alert and start preparing for / building the next position. CME Futures expire on March 29th and the markets have had a strong propensity to make a big move shortly after / before the futures expire. This is a 6 month contract and I would expect significant volume to occur over the next few days as position traders cover their positions and / or open new ones. This is a timing indicator that I have found very useful and credit goes to CarpeNoctom. If you do not subscribe to his Youtube channel then i would highly recommend it. He covers these contracts on a regular basis and has a great chart that shows how markets tend to react follow expirations. There are a number of indicators that are currently cooling off from overbought conditions, specifically the ADX and the RSI. The weekly TD Sequential is also only two weeks away from it’s second green 9 in a row. Neverthelss I remain bullish short term and am expecting another leg up. Price has been consolidating inside an ascending triangle over the last two weeks. We have put in two higher lows while volume decreases from the high. Ascending triangles are one of my favorite patterns and they will often occur below major horizontal resistance. This tells me that we are eating away at resistance and putting in higher lows. Each time we put in a higher low support is moving up and resistance is not necessarily moving down in response. On the third test of the horizontal boundary I expect resistance to break. I have starting building a long and have an stop market order to add at $8,451 - which is a little bit above where the ascending triangle confirms. The measured move from the bullish continuation pattern is $9,659 which is closely in line with my next major area of horizontal resistance. If it does reverse then it could be sharp. The funding rates indicate a potential long squeeze. I am setting my stop at $7,444 which is slightly below the recent swing low.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
12
Dax daily: 21 May 2019After closing the gap yesterday, we saw yet another strong selling. Bears dominated till the session end and bulls had no chance whatsoever. The session closed at 12 034 which is now an interesting support level. Important zones Resistance: 12 146 Support: 12 034, 11 958 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Very low probability of closing the gap today – only 32% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis The price is currently hovering in the middle of the range marked by our zones 12 146 and 12 034. After the open, we haven’t seen any significant move so far and today’s statistics are not even inclined towards the gap closure. On the other hand, the zone laying at 12 146 looks very appealing from the price action perspective and we could retest this level. Our major target right now is the price at 12 146. If Dax heads south, we estimate the price may stall around 12 034 which could now serve as a support level.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 20 May 2019 Friday’s session hasn’t really seen much success from the statistical point of view. There were increased probabilities for breaking of Thursday’s high and two support levels nearby to add to the hypothesis. Dax turned downhill on a very lazy pace, buyers reacted with a very slight correction at the first mentioned support level and the second support level hasn’t even been reached. In the end, the session turned out to be a lazy bear, as it often is on Fridays. Today we open with a small ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 376 Support: 12 196, 12 118 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today’s session hypothesis We anticipate continuing in the uptrend that has formed. Dax already filled our first target, which was a retest of 12 190 level. In the upcoming days, we estimate that the zone laying at 12 448 could be retested as well. Buyers could be found around the support zone of 12 196 where we have a nice confluence with the trendline, or even lower at the support at 12 118. Sellers could show their strengths at 12 376.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 16 May 2019 Yesterday’s session corresponded with our analysis. After the open, Dax began to descend towards the support at 12 946 where we haven’t encountered any buyers and the price continued lower. Later in the NY session, Dax unexpectedly jumped up and today we open with a descending gap. Important zones Resistance: 12 097, 12 190 Support: 11 917 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday’s high is 83% Macroeconomic releases 10:15 CEST – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks All day – Eurogroup Meetings Today’s session hypothesis Today, we estimate that the gap could be closed and find some sellers around the resistance zone of 12 097 for a possible correction. However, the probabilities today are more inclined to a buyers favour who could take the price all the way towards 12 190.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Bitmex Funding Rate IndicatorDisclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge I consistently track the funding rates on Bitmex as a way to understand if one side of the trade is too crowed. This can be a very powerful indicator for identifying squeezes, both long and short, before they happen. This is currently the most important indicator for me in regards to the Bitcoin Price Action. Almost every metric shows this market as being overbought over the last couple weeks while it has tested the major area of resistance at $5,800 - $6,500. The majority of people did not expect this rally to get past $6,000 before a significant correction and I was certainly one of them. This is exactly the type of environment when one side of the trade will get too crowded and that appears to be what happened over the past week. The indicator that I'm using can be found under "Bitmex Funding Bars" and it is a great way to illustrate how powerful this tool can be. I drew two horizontal lines which indicate buy and sell signals. The sell signal occurs when longs pays shorts 0.07%+. The sell signal occurs when shorts pay longs 0.08%+. These rates must persist for a week before the signal triggers. The vertical lines represent hypothetical buys / sells based on this indicator. As you can tell it has been a great way to forecast upcoming price movement throughout this bear market. A good confirmation for this indicator is the futures curve. Backwardation occurs when spot is more expensive that the futures and this confirms a buy. If there is Backwardation while getting a sell signal then the entry is not confirmed. The confirmation was not applied to the hypothetical buys / sells in this chart but it is something to consider. This post has been marked as Neutral despite getting a confirmed buy signal. That is because I simply cannot stomach buying after a prolonged markup in the price. I strongly prefer to let the market come to me and therefore am waiting to see what happens when we eventually do correct, even if that means paying a higher price. Nevertheless I thought that this is a great indicator that is very important right now. I have been expecting a correction for weeks, but now I see that there is plenty of gas left in the tank for another leg up, despite being overbought at a major level of resistance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
5
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 307)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: S MA < P < M MA < bullish L MA - M MA attempting bearish cross today Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Seeing a parallel channel forming inside the bear channel Horizontals: S: $3,542 | R: $3,675 Trendline: Bear channel Parabolic SAR: $3,923 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 3.99% spread. Increasing spread is very bullish. BTCUSDSHORTS: Took out local low. I view this as bullish in that I expect shorts to continue to pull back to the 20,000 area which would indicate less selling pressure over next week or two. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.008% TD’ Sequential: Bullish price flip Ichimoku Cloud: Cloud continues to hold as strong resistance. Relative Strength Index: New local low while price stays flat Price Action: 24h: +0.9% | 2w: -6.9% | 30d: +2.8% Bollinger Bands: MA = $3,764 Stochastic Oscillator: Making bearish re cross < 20. Very bearish sign. Summary: The overall picture for Bitcoin is starting to turn more bullish as far as I am concerned. At the same time things are starting to turn more bearish for alts. That has me scratching my head and very interested to see what happens. ETH:USD is getting a death cross with the 9 and 33 MA’s while also forming a h&s looking pattern on the daily. The only reason I did not short at today’s close is because of an expectation for it to pump along with BTC (if that does happen). XRP:BTC appears to be breaking down the symmetrical triangle as well as rolling down the 33 MA. The only reason I feel comfortable holding onto that long is because my view of BTC. However I strongly believe that we will see alts decouple from BTC before this bear market is over. That can only happen in one of two ways: BTC pump, alts flat / dump or BTC flat and alts dump. Just because alts have been pumping harder than BTC over the last few months, when it bounces, does not mean that will continue to happen. I can honestly say this is the first time I have sensed a divergence in the technicals. Will be watching very closely to see how everything proceeds from here.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 302)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: P < L MA < S MA < M MA | Watch out for death cross Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel channel Horizontals: R: $4,070 | S: $3,581 Parabolic SAR: $4,068 Futures Curve: Backwardation with widening spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to pick back up Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1256% TD’ Sequential: R3 Ichimoku Cloud: Price is fighting hard to reenter that cloud. Relative Strength Index: Sticking below 50 Price Action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: -5.9% | 1m: +5.5% Bollinger Bands: Starting to trend bearish with price below MA Stochastic Oscillator: Quickly pulling back to oversold territory. Summary: Very unimpressed with the reaction that we are seeing from horizontal support. I wanted to see an immediate response in order to be confident that the breakdown on Wednesday was a shakeout before a 50%+ dead cat bounce. On the other hand I was watching for a close below yesterday’s low to provide final confirmation to exit longs and start scaling into shorts. Neither of those occured and that has me scratching my head. Bitcoin closed a doji that never fell below yesterday’s lows and that could be viewed as bears running out of ammunition under $3,800. However the longer we stay below the 33 MA (currently at $3,715) the more confident I will be that bears are maintaining control. If we hold here long enough for a death cross to occur then I will be moving very quickly into some short positions. There are a couple reasons why I am remaining tentatively bullish and considering adding to my long position after today’s close and that is the futures curve. Not only is it experiencing backwardation but the spread is increasing from 3% to 3.8% over the last 24 hours. Generally I would stay out of the markets when the waters are this murky. However, I believe that the backwardation with a widening spread is a strong enough indicator in and of itself for me to act on. The risk:reward also favors bulls in this area. Furthermore the funding rates have been very expensive over the past 24 hours for short sellers, about 10X the average. This is as important to me as the BTCUSDSHORTS chart which is showing a lack of short selling. When funding rates are this expensive for shorts then it tells me that BTCUSDSHORTS chart is not painting the full picture.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
4
Bitcoin Daily Update (Day 296)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. Please be advised that I trade on high leverage and am comfortable with the risks. If stop loss is outside liquidation price then I will add to margin or decrease leverage if position moves against me. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: S MA > P > M MA > L MA Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave. Symmetrical triangle. Horizontals: R: $3,879 | S: $3,762 Trendline: Symm triangle Parabolic SAR: $4,180 BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to pull back hard, will it be a leading indicator? Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0165% Futures Curve: Backwardation TD’ Sequential: Price flip Ichimoku Cloud: The one potentially positive thing about a thick cloud is big opportunity on an edge-to-edge trade. Average Directional Index: Ready for volatility Price Action: 1d: -0.7% 2w: -1.5% 30d: +1% Bollinger Bands: Amazing how quickly it is squeezing and how well we have been finding support at the MA. Relative Strength Index: Struggling to stay above 50 for long Stochastic Oscillator: %K is continuing to diverge Summary: Consensio, BTCUSDSHORTS, Backwardation in the futures curve and the Bollinger Band are the main reasons I am leaning bullish. However the risk:reward feels much better for a short. Even though we have fallen this far, I still believe we have further to go and a bunch of built up resistance above. With a daily close below $3,650 I will likely be re entering shorts due to the Consensio guidelines. On the other hand ETH:USD looks almost ready to confirm a cup and handle + ascending triangle pattern that carries a target of $190 - $200. I’ve set a small stop order at $160.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin wants to be freeBitcoin pushing to get a candle close over D3 candle range. I believe it should break upwards and retest. Edit: Daily closed under it while publishing, not too hot. Possibly leveraging long after a close above D3 candle range. TP at 4.8 and shorting 4.9 as a hedge. Would short a bearish retest of 3.8 HVN if price gets there. Otherwise I'm staying mostly flat except for my call options (haha..) Other high cap coins showing confluence: ETHUSD Quanto looking to re-enter range EOSUSD looking at a stronger relief level, but not conclusive DOGEBTC looking to make a rounded top, which may be a bad thing but if BTC bull runs up then the ratio usually lags
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by NeoButane
1
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 269)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: “This is a clear no trade zone for me and I will leave my small orders set at $2,700 - $3,000” Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 Patterns: Broke through bear channel and currently testing it for support Horizontal support and resistance: $4,000 is expected to become support | R: $4,346 BTCUSDSHORTS: Found resistance at the down trendline. Actually surprised that it didn’t pull back much harder from this last pump. Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.2686%! That is almost 1% ROI per day for holding a long on BTC at these prices... Short term trend (4 day MA): Price close above = bullish Medium term trend (9 day MA): Price close above = bullish | Watch for it to flatten and then roll up. Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Trending down and waiting at $5,500 = Bearish Overall trend: Closing above the 9 MA indicates that a return to the 34 MA is to be expected. Volume: If this pump continues then I will be watching for volume to decrease as price rises to provide confirmation of dead cat bounce. FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $,4056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909 Candlestick analysis: Bullish extended range. 4h spinning tops. Ichimoku Cloud: Daily Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen waiting at $4,930 - $5,100 | Watching for 1h cloud to turn into support. TD’ Sequential: Currently on a 4h r9. If daily G2 can trade above the G1 it would also break the SAR. Visible Range: Surprised / disappointed that we didn’t fill the gap before pumping. Means that price bounced before my buy orders filled. Price action: 24h: +8.81% Bollinger Bands: Daily MA is right in line with daily Tenkan-Sen at $4,930 Trendline: Broke through 4h bear channel and currently testing it for support Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Bullish Parabolic SAR: Very, very intrigued by the fact that this pump did not breakthrough the SAR after getting about as close as you can get. RSI: Back above 30. Expecting a return to 50 before more down. Stochastic: Starting to diverge in a bullish manner after a couple false signals. Last Day Rule: Setup day today. Breakthrough of $4,354 would be trigger day and that would be potentially be in confluence with daily green 2 above a green 1 and a parabolic SAR break through. Summary: Love how precise the parabolic SAR has been over the last two candles, perfectly calling the top of each. With the close above the 4 & 9 MA I would be looking for long entries over the next 24 hours by setting orders on the 9 MA. However the SAR holding as resistance has given me a good reason to hold off and wait for further confirmation. If we can breakthrough the daily SAR then that would also be in confluence with the daily TD Sequential which is currently on a green 2 that hasn’t been able to trade above the green 1. It would also be the trigger day for Peter Brandt’s 3 day rule. BTCUSDSHORTS’ being at resistance and paying ~ 20X the normal funding rate is a strong indication that we will see a squeeze. I still think that a bounce to $5,000 - $6,000 is highly likely and will be looking to capitalize on that move. I will be watching for a bullish crossover with the 4 and 9 MA along with a breakthrough of the daily Parabolic SAR as final confirmations to enter.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 251)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis /position: “The price of Bitcoin' is currently at a very crucial crossroads. Can it find support above $6,350 and go on to create a higher high? I remain confident that won’t happen, mainly due to the volume.” / Short ETH:USD from $208.45 and short BTC from $6,354 Patterns: Back below bear trend line and looks like it will retest phase 2 of the hyperwave Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,371 (trendline retest) | S: $6,339 (bottom of the body from today’s candle) BTCUSDSHORTS: At support with reversal dojis after the red 9 Funding Rates: Predicted to be 0.0379% in 7 hours, longs paying shorts (0.01% now) Short term trend (3 day MA): Price below MA, with MA crossing medium and long MAs = full entry signaled Medium term trend (8 day MA): Still above long MA, watch for it to follow with a bearish cross to provide confirmation Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Should act as strong resistance Overall trend: Bearish with full entry signaled Volume: Selling volume from today and yesterday exceed buying volume on breakout FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.382 = $6,559 | 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405 Candlestick analysis: Bottom of today’s body is currently support. Watch for price to violate that at any time to confirm continuation of move Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud has thinned out but is also showing resistance at the trend line TD’ Sequential: Today closed a red 2 below a red 1 and the current candle is a red 3. Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789. Price action: 24h: -1.57% | 2w: -0.74% | 1m: -3.54% Bollinger Bands: Bottom band is in line with phase 2 trendline Trendline: Back below bear trend and testing it for resistance. Expecting phase 2 hyperwave to get retested Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Up: $6,564 | Down: $6,207 RSI: Back in bearish territory below 50 Stochastic: Daily sell signal did a great job Summary: Bitcoin' is back below the bear trend line after breaking out on low volume and selling off on higher volume. BTCUSDSHORTS are at support and coming off a recent red 9. Funding rates are getting very expensive for longs on Bitmex, projected in 8 hours is 0.0387% while the most common in 0.01%. Consensio signaled a full entry with today's close based on my guidelines of price < all MA's and 3 crossing 8 and 30. Today was also a daily red 2 below a red 1. The green trendline is how I am drawing my phase 2 line and I think the action outlined above puts it in serious danger of breaking down. The 1 hour chart is approaching the long MA which is angled down sharply while price retests trendline for resistance. I have scaled into large short positions on BTC’. Funnily enough this is the first time in 2018 that I can remember ETH’ being in a strong position technically that BTC’. ETH’ is still above it’s medium term MA and has not seen the short may making any bearish crossovers as of yet. I do not take this to mean that ETH’ will have stronger support over the coming days and I strongly expect it will continue to fall harder and faster than BTC’ (if we do breakdown). I think this is simply due to over exuberance in alts during the last week. As BTC’ was rallying the alts were rallying harder. I actually take this as another sign that this isn’t the bottom. When alts found their last bottom it was when BTC’ was rallying hard and people were FOMOing out of alts and into BTC’. Alts continued to crash for weeks (months?) while BTC was making all time highs. Therefore I have scaled into a small ETH’ short with intentions to add when the MA crossovers signal entries.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
6
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 249)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis / position: “A clean breakthrough would come on high volume and then would have little trouble supporting a throwback which would create another higher low.” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 with order at 0.97 to cover Patterns: Attempting to break out of 6 month bear trend | 1h had beautiful bull flag that broke down Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,453 | R: $6,493 BTCUSDSHORTS: Current candle is on a 9. Shorts are primed to pick up Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0668% confirming that longs are overleveraged Short term trend (3 day MA): Above longer term MA’s but price is crossing back below. Close below = bearish Medium term trend (8 day MA): Crossing 34 and angling up with price on top = bullish Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Still angled down slightly with price on top = neutral Overall trend: Neutral, could easily flip in either direction Volume: Yesteday’s volume was less than half of what I was watching for to consider this move real. FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.382 = $6,559 | 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405 Candlestick analysis: Shooting star from todays candle with wick = body | Dark cloud cover already forming on current candle, strong indication of fake breakout Ichimoku Cloud: Today’s candle briefly broke into daily cloud and quickly wicked down. Inside 12h and 4h clouds indicates no trade zone. TD’ Sequential: 12h g8 and Daily g7 indicates that this move is exhausting Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789. If the price closes above $6,789 at any point then that would be very bullish . Breaking down below $6,154 would be very bearish (hopefully didn’t need VPVR to tell you that) Price action: 24h: -0.69% | 2w: +0.74% | 1m: -1.62% Bollinger Bands: Finally tested the top band. Sticking close to the top band would indicate an upcoming trend, pulling back sharply with dark cloud cover indicates a likely return to the MA Trendline: Broke through trendline but there are strong indications of a fakeout / bull trap from volume, the bearish wick on today’s candle and the dark cloud cover on the current candle. Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Broke up fractal at $6,488 but is quickly pulling back below RSI: Will daily be able to create another higher low? Bear div on 4h Stochastic: Daily is overbought and posturing for a sell signal. Sell signal on 12h preceded current pullback Summary: In yesterday’s post I briefly outlined what to look for if we rally through the bear trend line to confirm that the move is real: “large volume and a supported throwback which creates a higher low” I wish I would have outlined what to look for to indicate a fakeout / bull trap because we would be checking off every box today. Volume barely exceeding the moving average and not even exceeding the high from the prior two weeks is a very strong indication of a fakeout. (In hindsight) I would consider the 2014-2015 bear market coming to an end on November 2nd 2015. Take a look at the volume that supported that move combined with the volume that preceded it. Bear markets end on low volatility and high volume. That is not an either/or proposition. The demand needs to far exceed the supply at a certain price for a reversal to occur, or else it is highly likely that the prior trend will continue. Outside of volume (most important to me) there are numerous indicators signaling overbought conditions and/or signs of a reversal: The wick on top of today’s candle may or may not be considered a shooting star depending on the exchange (is wick > / = body?), either way that is a bearish wick/candle and reeks of a fakeout. That was quickly confirmed by the current candle retracing 100% of yesterday’s move. The 1h chart was forming a beautiful bull flag, however that recently broke down and that is a bearish signal. The BTCUSDSHORTS’ are at historical support and on a TD 9. This strongly indicates to me that selling pressure will pick up in the next couple days. The funding rates provide confirmation with longs paying shorts 0.0668%. The daily TD’ Sequential is on a green 7 and the 12h hit is green 8. Both are strong indications that the trend is becoming exhausted. The daily and 12h Stochastics confirm. 12h just had a sell signal and the daily is postured to crossover in the next day or two. Yesterday I said that it was anyone’s guess where the price would go today. Now it looks like the bears are taking over and everything I’m looking at points to a reversal within the next two days. Nevertheless I still think it is too early to enter. I will be closely watching the short and medium term trends to be in my favor before re entering a short. If we fall back below the bear trendline then it will be time to start entering.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 247)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis / position: “...everyone foaming at the mouth after the daily candle closed +1.5%. That was an unimpressive move and it came on low volume” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 with order 0.97 to close Patterns: Testing phase 2 of hyperwave Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,360 - $6,380 | R: $6,400 - $6,427 BTCUSDSHORTS: Still falling toward support | TD’ shows two days left to the downside Funding Rates: Longs will pay shorts 0.05% | This is what I am waiting to see...longs get very expensive and btcusdshorts’ at support Short term trend (3 day MA): Cross above 8 & 34 with price below = neutral Medium term trend (8 day MA): Starting to turn up, crossing 34 would be very important for bulls Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Still angled down, one of the main reasons I am a bear and look for shorts in this area Overall trend: bearsih Volume: If you thought yesterday’s volume was unimpressive then todays was even less so (below MA) FIB’s: (Using Oct 15th candle) 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405 Candlestick analysis: Daily hanging man | 12h hanging man both right on the trend resistance Ichimoku Cloud: Tried to re enter 12h cloud and failed TD’ Sequential: 12h has a red 1 and 2 that were very close to being 7’s and 8’s. If they would have close a few dollar higher then this topped on a 24 hours ago. Visible Range: Still below the point of control (POC) Price action: 24h: -0.4% | 2w: -0.2% | 1m: -2.74% Bollinger Bands: Still hasn’t tested top band Trendline: All eyes on the resistance from the bear trend. If we don’t breakthrough on high volume then I expect phase 2 to break down. Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Last move didn’t break up fractal, making that move even less impressive RSI: Watching to see if daily stays > 50 Stochastic: Daily still has room to the upside Summary: That pump did not break the most recent up fractal, it came on low volume and we failed to even test the top of the daily Bollinger Band. Longs are getting expensive and BTCUSDSHORTS’ are falling towards support. The daily candle also just closed a hanging man. In my mind it is highly likely that the bear trendline is going to hold as resistance and that is going to lead to a breakdown of the phase 2 hyperwave trendline. If phase 2 doesn't hold then the target is phase 1, based on the rules of Tyler Jenks' hyperwave. All of that being said I still think it is a little too early to re enter my short position. It looks like there is still plenty of support left from $6,360 - $6,380 and I am going to wait to see how the price reacts when/if we retest it. Another 24 - 48 hours of consolidating inside a ~$50 range seems most likely from here. That should give us plenty of time to watch how the traditional markets react to the election.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
3
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 197)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “BTC’ looks like it has found support and should bounce to the $6,750 area before continuing the downtrend. However, alts are currently breaking down and there is a good chance that they drag BTC’ down with them.” / Short ETH:USD. Took profit on 33% of position improving my average cost basis to $317.37 per ETH. Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,150 - $6,180 | R: $6,290 BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to be pulling back and forming a lower high. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% (first time in a while it hasn’t been shorts paying longs) 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -3.87% | 26 = -5.85% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -8.96% | 128 = -11.55% Volume: Still waiting for volume spike to set off the next move FIB’s: 0.886 = $6,137 | 0.786 = $6,383 Candlestick analysis: Inverted hammer then a doji now a hammer is forming. Indicates indecision and upcoming volatility Ichimoku Cloud: 4h C-Clamp TD’ Sequential: Current candle will price flip if it closes > $6,181. Red 9 on the 4 hour. Visible Range: Currently testing point of control (POC) with 2m - 1y lookback. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = +/- 0 | 1w = -6.52% | 2w = -10.34% | 1m = -0.63% Bollinger Bands: After testing the bottom band a return to the MA at $6,739 is to be expected Trendline: N/A Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Up = $7,426 | Down = $5,866 On Balance Volume: Moving down with price / no div’s ADX: Bear trend Chaikin Money Flow: Pulling back from resistance RSI (30 setting): W = 48.53 | D = 43.88 Stoch: Bearish re cross on weekly. Buy signal on daily. Summary: There is nothing to do at this point other than to wait. Ideally we will get a sharp spike to $6,700 before breaking down. A shakeout before the breakdown would speed up the process and allow for some very good short entries. If that doesn’t happen then we will likely continue to consolidate for days - weeks. Prolonged sideways action can drive traders up a wall and/or put us to sleep. Do not let that happen to you. Set price alerts and regularly check in on the charts. If we get a bounce then be ready to short it. If we continue to consolidate then develop a plan for what you will do if we do not get a bounce. My suggestion is to key an eye on EOS . I am going to be shorting it against BTC' and ETH in the coming days/weeks.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 177)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. 1 day: Very surprised we didn’t retest $6,000 after ETF’s were denied | 1 week: $6,000 retest | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 (will probably need to adjust) | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30 Previous analysis /position: Bearish daily candle, quick rejection from $6,800 and expected ETF rejection gave me very high confidence in a $6,000 retest leading to an eventual breakdown of $5,750 / Short ADA:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC Patterns: Descending triangle + bear flag. Many are labeling this as a head and shoulders. I do not see it that way for the following reasons: I like to trade h&s as a bearish reversal pattern. I would not expect the current bear trend to reverse on a bearish pattern. I am expecting the trend to continue and labeling it as a bear flag continuation pattern makes more sense to me. Furthermore I learned from @PeterLBrandt that h&s’s should not have significant price work to the left of the pattern. This is why he did not call for a h&s in the S&P recently even though everything else was textbook. Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,275 | R: $6,575 BTCUSDSHORTS: Hanging man candle at resistance. Current candle is trying to rally. If it breaks through 39,850 then HM would be invalidated. If breakdown below 35,812 then HM confirmed. Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0446% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 is currently being tested for resistance | 26 = -3% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.79% | 128 = -13.31% Volume: Yesterday was well above MA, which indicates buyers stepping up (more likely shorts covering) and there being ample supply to satisfy all of the demand. Indicates that $6,900 should be strong resistance moving forward. FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,508 | 0.5 = $5,882 Candlestick analysis: Daily shooting star vs weekly hammer. Current weekly candle is forming a doji. Ichimoku Cloud: Acting as resistance on yesterday’s squeeze. Tenkan-Sen moving down quickly, will it be the new resistance at $6,650? TD’ Sequential: Red 3 on weekly. Red 4 on daily. Red 2 on 12h. Visible Range: Low volume nodes from $6,535 to $6,650 with 1d lookback. POC over last 6 months = $6,375 BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -0.43% | 24h = -0.4% | 1w = +2.21% | 2w = +4.87% | 1m = -12.77% Bollinger Bands: Daily is squeezing quickly. Yesterday briefly broke through MA, current candle is testing it for resistance. Trendline: Bear flag Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: 2 up = $6,640 | down = $6,249 On Balance Volume: Following price w no noticeable divs’ ADX: Will be watching the daily closely. ADX is pulling back quickly following +DI making bullish cross with -DI. Chaikin Money Flow: Still showing massive div’ in weekly. Testing prior support for resistance. If it can break 0.15 that would be very bullish. RSI (30 setting): W = 48.81 | D = 45.88 Stoch: Attempt to re cross from yesterday did not amount to anything. Conclusion: “Bear markets end when they stops selling off on bad news.” I am not sure who said this but it has been in my mind since yesterday. We sold off hard on the last ETF rejection. This time all 5 ETF’s were rejected and the price hasn’t flinched. Theory 1: Traders were buying the hype of the last ETF announcement and when the denial came out the price was overbought and needed to correct. This time nobody really expected the ETF to pass and there was no hype to buy into. Theory 2: Sellers are becoming exhausted and bulls are gaining confidence in the support at $5,750 - $6,000. Bitcoin does not need an ETF in order to go on another bull run. Short sellers are at/near their ATH’. Holding support after bad news could cause bulls to gain more confidence and could cause bears to capitulate after a short squeeze. If this is the bottom then I firmly believe that we are in for 3+ months more consolidation between $6,000 - $8,000. Still holding onto my bearish stance and short positions. Tightening stops and taking profit on 20% has me feeling comfortable. If not in a position then I would still say that shorting alt's vs BTC' is the best bet. If wanted to trade BTC' then I would suggest looking at yesterday's post where i outlined entries for the bear flag.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 176)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. 1 day: Today is the day for a $6,000 retest. If not then tomorrow for sure! | 1 week: Breakdown $5,750 | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30 Previous analysis /position: Short sellers nearing all time high combined with expensive funding rates had me concerned. Closed 20% of my short positions and tightened stops due to strong resistance at $6,650 - $6,850 / Short ETH:USD | ETH:BTC Patterns: Descending triangle & bear flag. Bounce was rejected at 0.618 fib which means bear flag is still in tact. Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,500 | S: $6,250 BTCUSDSHORTS: Could be double top. Could also find support and turn into c&h or Bulkowski Big W. Daily candle looks like it will engulf yesterday’s. Funding Rates: longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -0.46% | 26 = -3.54% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -7.33% (was resistance for last squeeze) | 128 = -13.83% Volume: > daily MA. Watching for local high. FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,895 | 0.886 = $6,280 Candlestick analysis: Nasty shooting star on the daily vs weekly hammer. Timeframe outweighs everything but trend, therefore I believe daily shooting star. Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen diverging from Kijun-Sen following the bearish TK’ Cross. TD’ Sequential: R3 < R2 Visible Range: Point of control over last 6 months is $6,382 BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -5.12% | 1d = -2.12% | 1w = +0.95% | 2w = -3.33% | -14.51% Bollinger Bands: Almost tested the top band with that last squeeze. Didn’t take long to pullback below MA. Watch for that to hold as resistance at $6,500 Trendline: Bear flag Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Briefly broke through two up fractals at $6,600 however does not look like we will close above those fractals. Down = $5,863 On Balance Volume: Bear div’ on daily. ADX: ADX pulling back. +DI crossed above -DI and appears to be diverging. Chaikin Money Flow: Still large bull div’ on weekly. However it has started to pull back. Will it create a higher low? Slight bear div’ in daily with lower low. RSI (30 setting): D = 44.47 | W = 48.54 Stoch: Testing 20 on weekly after a second lower high. Surprised 3d hasn’t crossed 20 after last squeeze. Daily looks like it wan’t to make bearish cross after last one was a fakeout. Summary: The daily candle is painting a very clear picture with it’s wick on top being > 2X the size of the body. The price quickly pulled back from the 0.618 FIB after the short squeeze that everyone was waiting for yesterday. Now the funding rates are back to equilibrium (0.01%) with longs paying shorts. I am also keeping in mind the ETF announcement that is expected tomorrow. I think there is < 10% of approval due to a variety of reasons. If we get the bad news i expect while the chart shows such a bearish bias with the bull flag, descending triangle and shooting star then expect a massive sell off to follow. Today is the day I would expect traders with inside information to be positioning themselves and that could be a reason we pulled back so hard from $6,875. If you are not currently positioned then I would consider opening a short before tomorrow morning. A high volume breakdown of the bear flag should provide a great entry. When selling a bear flag I like to enter 1/3 after the breakdown, 1/3 on the throwback and 1/3 on the breakdown of horizontal support. If no throwback then 2/3 on horizontal breakdown. This helps to minimize losses when the position turns against me and makes decision making less stressful when entering a large position.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
4