Time to discuss some real shitI see a lot of people comparing this area to the 20k top in 2017. During this consolidation period, sentiment has ranged from extremely bullish to extremely bearish with only a small few that I have witnessed, publicly acknowledge the macro consolidation length and what it may mean.
In 2017, we spent 2 weeks grinding the top of the range before plummeting to a 64% drop from peak *63 days* after we topped.
In 2019, we similarly spent 2 weeks grinding the top of the range but have spent the same exact amount of time ranging 35% up and down as it took the the price to drop 64% in 2017.
There are plenty of other marked differences as well, such as the halving timing, in 2017 the halving had already occurred and people were chasing a fundamental event that was already priced in. Additionally, alt coins are not booming like they were in 2017, there are no speculatively fervent bubbles at risk of the needle prick. People who watched the space balloon in 2017 can't process the fact that capital moves cyclically, like in all spaces. Depending on the length of the underlying cycle things can happen fast or slow, regular or irregularly, but eventually a cycle will be found.
I think that a cycle has been found in crypto. Bitcoin leads the market and peaks near 90% dominance before capital has the incentive to move into altcoins. I don't think we've reached this part of the cycle whatsoever. This usually comes after Bitcoin makes new all time highs.
70 days of 30-45% ranging, with plenty of things like the fear and greed index being extremely low and the fear of recession among retail investors with very little experience tells me that people have risked off but will not shy away from re entering this market as risk-on investors as soon as the prices threatens new highs once more. There is still plenty of money to be invested into Bitcoin.
To some this may seem like a moonboi rant of sorts, but I feel the community is far too bearish at this point in time. We have risen in a manner which implies Bitcoin has entered an entirely new cycle. Nothing on the macro level has really confirmed the suspicion of those who anticipate a drop to 6000, 7000, 8000. There are a record number of people who missed the boat in this cycle, and I believe it shows in sentiment.
The people who didn't miss the lows of the cycle and are exposed safely, or have profited and since rebought and sold many times, will not shy away from Bitcoin. The USD is currently undergoing a massive weakening due to its monetary policy and fiat currencies around the world are plunging because of this as well. There is high levels of correlation between all of the paper money in the world and very little collateral behind any of it. When confidence is high, things are fine, but in times of uncertainty people look away from traditional safe havens and find alternatives. Bitcoin is a unique asset because it is versatile. It can be added to the portfolio as a hedge to particular things, even gold. But it is , unlike gold, also able to be considered a risk-on asset and this means that it has the potential to attract many types of investors.
The date is August 30, 2019. The chart to me, shows a massive consolidation that is preceded by a 300%+ rise. Very rarely in history of Bitcoin does it start a cycle of growth and not finish it in a parabolic blow off. If this was that parabolic blow off, I reckon we would have been -64% by now.
What were you doing on August 30? Were you bearish or bullish?
