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Predicting the next Bitcoin bubble with Fibonacci time zonesUsing Fibonacci time zones it is possible that the peak of the next Bitcoin bubble might occur after Fall 2014 and before Spring of 2015. The Gann fan shows that in order to make this forecast come true the price needs to start increasing by November 2014. "Fibonacci Time Zones are vertical lines based on the Fibonacci Sequence. These lines extend along the X axis (date axis) as a mechanism to forecast reversals based on elapsed time. A major low or high is often chosen as the starting point. Distances start relatively small and grow as the Fibonacci Sequence extends. Chartists can extend the Fibonacci Time Zones into the future to anticipate potential reversal points." stockcharts.com The red line is the cumulative Elastic Volume Weighted Moving Average (eVWMA). Which is "a statistical measure using the volume to define the period of the moving average. The eVWMA can be looked at as an approximation to the average price paid per Bitcoin. It can be approximated using cumulative sum of volume (...)"
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ChartArt
10
A new Bitcoin bull market - or the beginning of the endBitcoin is at the crossroads - again. Are we finally staying on this level above 550 US Dollar and slowly going up again. Or is this just the start of a much larger downtrend? At least the accumulation/distribution indicator is showing an uptrend and the Keltner channel and weighted moving average shows we might get stable and could still bounce - before we face a multiple month long downtrend. I'm still very skeptic based on most other indicators. Fun fact: We are now 1088 days away from the first Bitstamp BTC price chart data since 2011-08-19 and today is 2014-08-12.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ChartArt
6
The real reason Bitcoin is doomed in Summer 2014It’s been a happy couple of weeks in May, June and July 2014 for Bitcoin enthusiasts like me. Sadly we didn't break out of the overall downtrend since falling from around 1200 US Dollar per Bitcoin in December 2013 so far. I was very enthusiastic in June 2014 that the yearly price increase pattern (bubble) repeats very soon. But 600 US Dollar is only the 50% retracement from the last all-time-high, which opens the risk possibility that the BTC price goes lower than the 0.5 retracement in the coming weeks. The recent move from 560 US Dollar to 607 US Dollar (Bitstamp price) was a bull trap and will therefore turn out as a dead cat bounce on the way down (UPDATE: The price has already fallen from 592 down to 585 since I published this chart 4 hours ago). The Stoch RSI indicator already shows the beginning of a larger downtrend. Lacking bull power, if the Bitcoin price doesn't break out above 700 US Dollar that would mean that the price is in a position to continue the downtrend in the summer. And if Bitcoin stays below 600 US Dollar (current price is around 590 US Dollar) then I expect the price to test the last support area, which is around 400 US Dollar (maybe we bounce of 425 US Dollar or 450 US Dollar). If you need another reason for the current downtrend then check the volume. Here is an example by TerryKinder: The next Fibonacci retracement at 0.618 (61.8%) would mean the BTC price visits 500 US Dollar again. The following lower Fibonacci retracement at 0.764 (76.4%) would bring very critical Bitcoin price support at 350 US Dollar. My analysis is based on many indicators besides the Stoch RSI, maybe I will post all the other signals I found so far as updates in the comments of this chart. However the Stoch RSI alone is very reliable in the weekly chart. I once made a comparison for myself with the MACD vs StochRSI and I would have made much more money (around double the amount) using only the Stoch RSI as indicator in the weekly chart to determine entry and exit since 2012 than if I had used only the MACD. Bullish outlook: If the price goes only down to 500 US Dollar and some very good news brings in much more new Bitcoin users - in that case the downtrend might reverse into a uptrend. Based on the (hypothetical) very good news we could see a new Bitcoin price rally, when we finally break the resistance at 700 US Dollar. That uptrend would then bring us back to test 1000 US Dollar. But we are not there yet. First the price has to clean up in the Summer the overall downtrend from the last all-time-high at 1200 US Dollar. I created this chart as response to the bullish chart created by ItisCalvin: Make sure to visit "related ideas" (see below) where I added my last downtrend corresponding charts. --------- "The point about a prediction is not that it’s true. A prediction is either a warning or a hope. Predictions should never claim to be true. But you can claim they are possibilities that there is something you ought to think about.” - Freeman Dyson
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ChartArt
35