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#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 2.16 - 2.21Last Week : Sunday Globex again opened on a gap down just like previous week but this time it opened right at lower VAH and got a push back into over 6074 - 54 Edge. Holding over 6050s and inside/over the Edge meant stability for the market which brough in more buying but as we can see it took us a whole week of consolidating under VAL before we were able to push into upper Value towards the end of the week. We pushed into the Mean right up against our previous Supply area and that served as good resistance to keep us in small balance to finish the week on Friday. This Week : Tricky spot we find ourself in this week, on higher time frames like Monthly we are having inside month, weekly we are still holding sideways/up trend inside this 6230s - 5950s balance but one thing to note is we have mostly been back and forth between this balances Mean area and the low, so far dips under the low kept getting bought but we are not really getting any upside or holds over the Mean areas which could mean no acceptance inside it to cause continuation towards the top. On Daily TF we have been holding over between the Daily upper Edge of 6073 - 43 and upper Daily VAL of 6144 - 25 where we found balance to end the week on Friday. Going into this week we are again inside the Value of this 6074 - 6195 Hourly's range and there are few things we can watch from here. If the market has truly accepted inside this range then we may hold inside the Value which will mean ranges will tighten up and we look to balance inside Current Intraday Range of 6155 - 6114, we have supply over 6144 so any pushes over it towards 6155 could find their way back into the Mean and we could see covering under 6125 over VAL. BUT something we have to watch out for is IF we again fail inside this Value and get into/under VAL this will be our first signal for a failure which can bring in weakness towards lower Edge, IF that happens and we find ourself inside lower Edge under 6074 - 60s that would confirm the failure and may bring in more weakness for market to try and go find Value lower, we do have lots of HTF stops lined up under us which would keep bringing weakness if we start taking them. We don't have any market moving data until Fed on Wednesday which could mean a slow start to the week and we must be careful forcing for downside IF we are holding over VAL because that keeps us stable. Of course IF we do again open on a gap down like we did last 2 weeks then that could change things BUT this time around IF we do then we need to be careful looking for a full return back like we had last 2 times. For more strength out of this Value we would want price first show us holds over 6144 AND find stronger buying that can take us into/over upper VAH, until this happens we really need to watch out over 6140 as we may finish this month either inside +/- month inside this Value under 6160s OR since its our 3rd month in these areas without any upside, we could see size sell us back down towards Monthly balance lows which are down at 5950s.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#202507 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: No bigger opinion on this trading range. 70 holds, we chop until a bigger news event pushes us above 74. Below 70 we could flush to 69 and then 67. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 70 - 75 bull case: Bulls preventing meaningful lower lows but we have a clear bear trend line. Bulls are still favored going into next week to buy around 70 and test back up to at least 72. They want to break above the Tuesday high 73.67 and make the market more neutral again. If they get it, we could test 75 next. Invalidation is below 69.7. bear case: Bears have closed the week near the lows and they want to poke at 70 until it fails. I have no idea how likely that is next week but for now it’s support and if we see decent buying pressure tomorrow, bulls are favored. Volume is also trash again. Below 70 we test 69 and then 67. Invalidation is above 75. short term: Neutral for now. Still no interest in this tbh. 70 should hold but the last thing I want to do is buying this. Nothing has changed since last Sunday. Play the range or trade something else. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202507 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Yeah I won’t make stuff up this week either. Range is the same and we saw some expansion last week but barely. Targets for both sides remain the same and if you don’t like trading ranges, stop reading here. I have no idea where the next breakout will happen but a slightly bearish bias due to this market going sideways 12k points below ath while nasdaq is pumping. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 90k - 110k bull case: Bulls printed another lower high and have nothing to show for after this week. They need daily closes above the 20ema and 100k to gain control again. Same stuff as last week. Invalidation is below 88k. bear case: Market is totally neutral. If bears start closing bars below 90k we can talk bear targets again. For now it’s nested triangles. Invalidation is above 110k. short term: Neutral. Play the range until broken. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good. We are in a big trading range until it’s clearly broken. Bearish targets will only happen once we get a strong move below 90k. current swing trade: Nope chart update: Added the smaller triangle as well.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
BTC/USD Futures: High-Probability Setup with 2.8R PotentialBitcoin is presenting a compelling trading opportunity with a clearly defined risk-reward setup. The current market structure, supported by volume profile analysis and EMA alignments, suggests a high-probability long entry. Entry Strategy: Entry Price: $97,727.6 Take Profit: $98,838.1 Stop Loss: $97,300.3 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.8 (favorable for position sizing) Technical Confluence: The entry point at $97,727.6 aligns with: Rising EMA support cluster Previous resistance turned support Positive MACD momentum crossover Strong volume node support zone Target Analysis: The $98,838.1 target is justified by: Clear price inefficiency above $98,400 POC Historical reaction zone Minimal volume resistance until this level 1.13% potential upside from entry Risk Management: Stop placement at $97,300.3 provides protection while: Sitting below key structural support Allowing sufficient room for normal market volatility Representing contained risk of 0.44% Volume Profile Context: Two major POC levels ($98,200 and $98,400) act as stepping stones toward our target, potentially providing intraday support during the move up. #Bitcoin #BTC #TechnicalAnalysis Trade Management: Consider partial profit-taking at POC levels ($98,200 and $98,400) while moving stop to breakeven after first target is reached. Note: This analysis represents a snapshot in time. Always conduct your own due diligence and adjust position sizing according to your risk management rules.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PLong
by FXCapitalClub
WHEAT - Testing a major resistance zoneCAPITALCOM:WHEAT is testing a major resistance zone that has previously led to significant bearish reversals. The recent bullish momentum into this area increases the likelihood of seller interest. If the market shows bearish confirmation through rejection wicks, bearish engulfing candles, or increased selling volume, a move toward 579.9 seems likely. But, a breakout above this resistance may suggest continued bullish strength. Just my take on key support and resistance levels—remember, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage risk wisely.
PEPPERSTONE:WHEATShort
by TrendDiva
Are sugar futures ready to extend further up?Looking at the technical picture of sugar futures, we can see that we have approached a key area of resistance. In order to get comfortable with further upside, a break of that territory is required. However, if we see the price struggling to move above all the EMAs on our daily chart, maybe the upside might off the table, at least for now. MARKETSCOM:SUGAR ICEUS:SB1! 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:SUGAR
by Marketscom
Profit taking action, GOLD decreased significantlyOANDA:XAUUSD fell significantly as investors took profits after hitting record highs, but remained optimistic as US President Donald Trump's new tariffs raised fears of a global trade war. Trump has sharply increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 25% with "no exceptions or exemptions," a move he hopes will help struggling U.S. industries but could also spark a trade war on multiple fronts. Traders will need to keep an eye on US inflation data today (Wednesday) for fresh clues on the outlook for interest rates in the world's largest economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates because the economy is "strong overall" and inflation remains above its 2% target. Powell's comments were part of an opening statement he prepared for a Senate Banking Committee hearing. Inflation data is in focus this trading day, and higher-than-expected inflation data could extend the Fed's pause on interest rate hikes, which could lead to a slowdown in gold's performance in the short term. The impact is also reversed if inflation data is lower than expected, which further boosts market sentiment about the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates next quarter. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates will reduce the appeal of this non-yielding asset. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold corrected sharply but in general the position and technical structure still support the possibility of price increases. While the trend from the short-term price channel remains stable and the Relative Strength Index has not provided a clear bearish signal. At the same time, the support levels from the 0.382% and 0.236% Fibonacci extension positions are also slowing down the correction momentum. As long as gold remains within the price channel, the short-term technical outlook remains bullish. The current downward corrections should be seen as an opportunity to buy. Notable locations will be listed as follows. Support: 2,881 – 2,869USD Resistance: 2,900 – 2,909USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2931 - 2929⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2935 →Take Profit 1 2923 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2917 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2859 - 2861⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2855 →Take Profit 1 2867 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2873
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD rises above $2,900 with further upside targetsUS President Donald Trump vowed to impose "retaliatory tariffs" on all countries that impose duties on US imports as early as Wednesday evening (February 12) local time, raising concerns about the expansion of the global trade war and possibly accelerating US inflation. This is beneficial for gold to recover quickly. Trump's latest round of tariffs unsettled markets comes just as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to visit the White House on Thursday. The Trump administration has complained that India's high tariffs have hindered U.S. imports. Economists generally view tariffs as an inflation risk, with data released Wednesday showing U.S. consumer prices rose the most in nearly a year and a half in January. OANDA:XAUUSD jumped $45 from Wednesday's low After the release of stronger-than-expected US CPI data on Wednesday, spot gold prices fell sharply to $2,864 per ounce in early New York trading on Wednesday. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% month-on-month and 3.0% year-over-year in January. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected the data to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-over-year. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year in January, while economists expected increases of 0.3% and 3.1%, respectively. Economists have generally raised their inflation forecasts since Trump was elected out of concern that his policies, especially tariffs, could spark price pressures in the economy. Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but because gold does not earn interest, a higher interest rate environment reduces its investment appeal. However, fueled by safe-haven demand, gold prices have recovered strongly from lows. During the New York trading session on Wednesday, gold prices jumped above the original price of 2,900 USD and as of the time this article was completed it was trading at around 2,909 USD/ounce, up 45 Dollars compared to the level from yesterday's trading day. Central banks' gold demand has increased as the World Gold Council (WGC) reported that central banks bought more than 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024. According to the World Gold Council, central banks' gold purchases increased more than 54% year-on-year to 333 tons after Trump won the election. Gold's recent rally has come alongside an influx of money into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by the metal. According to Bloomberg calculations, global gold ETFs have grown more than 1% this year, reaching their highest level since November last year. Technically on the daily chart, after OANDA:XAUUSD took support from the Fibonacci extension confluence with the upper edge of the price channel, it quickly recovered above the original price point of 2,900 USD. This was noted to readers in yesterday's edition. Given its current position, it has room to continue rising with a target of around $2,927 in the short term, more than $2,952. As long as gold remains within the price channel, the short-term uptrend will still prevail, while the Relative Strength Index has not shown any clear signs of a potential correction. During the day, gold's uptrend will be noted again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,900 – 2,891 – 2,869USD Resistance: 2,927 – 2,952USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2931 - 2929⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2935 →Take Profit 1 2923 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2917 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2878 - 2880⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2874 →Take Profit 1 2886 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2892
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2025-02-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: As expected after yesterday’s cpi reversal, bears are not strong enough and bulls wanted a higher high badly. Now a new ath is much more likely than prices below 21800. Max bullishness would be if we stay above 22k but everything above 21900 is ok for the bulls. We have a decent channel on the 1h tf but it’s not steep enough to get to 21400 tomorrow. So it’s probably best to pay more attention to the lower trend line and not looking to short the upper one. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21800 - 22500 bull case: Bulls now only need to keep it above 21900 and bears can’t hold shorts on this. We could easily print 22500 or higher tomorrow. Today we had wild swings on smaller time-frames so I doubt many bulls would want to buy the highs but we should know an hour into the Globex session if we can expect sideways to down first or if bulls just keep it above 22k in fear of not getting enough points to the upside. Odds are good for a max long day tomorrow. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears can scalp short on new highs but the risk of getting trapped if we break above was never higher this week. If they somehow manage to get below 21900 again, the bull case would be in trouble but for now we are making clear higher highs and higher lows. Could bears stay below 22100 tomorrow and break sideways out of the channel? Yeah but we closed at 22094. If Globex sells-off hard, might happen but I doubt it. Bears do not have much here. Invalidation is above 22150. short term: Clear plan. Stay above 21900 and long for 22400+. Dip below and see if bears can generate follow-through. Leaning heavily bullish though. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-09: Another lower high but also higher lows. Bears are not doing enough, so we are in a trading range below the ath. We are close to it that there is always the possibility of printing a higher high again. Bears need lower lows below 20600 before we can talk about 20000 again. trade of the day: Strong selling on the open but by now everyone knows bears are only getting trapped this week, so buying around 21750 was where market found support late yesterday and we dipped only 6 points below the low from yesterday evening. Market refused to go down after the early EU session selling was done, so long it was. The pullback from 22000 down to 21890 was deep and holding longs through it was tough but if you look at the 1h chart at the end of the day, it was much more bullish than lower time-frames suggested.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
2025-02-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: CPI was the gift to the bears and what was the perfect setup for continuous selling to the lows of this bigger trading range, became the ultimate bear trap. Bears now have only 2 daily bear bars during the past 8 trading days and today printed a really nasty reversal bar. We are still making lower highs but if bears can’t stay below 21900 tomorrow, I think we could see a bullish breakout above for a retest of the ath. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21500 - 22000 bull case: Bulls probably burned enough bears today that many will give up until we see bigger selling pressure instead of single sell spikes. That opens the possibility for the bulls to print higher highs above 21900 and test the previous monthly high at 21967. If bulls are strong enough tomorrow, it could setup the next impulse higher to retest 22450. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Likely that bears are done with these reversals and they could give up tomorrow because market clearly rejects lower prices. Bears now had 5 big spikes down in the past 8 trading days and all were rejected hard. Above 21967 I highly doubt bears will fight this if we get above 21967. What would the bears need to keep this another lower high and go down? Yeah right. Neither trade war stuff nor the hot cpi print could bring this down. If somehow bears manage to get strongly below 21750 tomorrow, there is a small chance of more downside to 21670 but at this point it’s very low probability. Invalidation is above 21970. short term: Can’t be bear after such a trap today. Bulls need something above 21967 and if they get it, it’s a clear buy signal and we likely melt higher. Bears having more arguments if they strongly go below 21760 again but it would likely turn the market neutral at best. Middle of this range is still 21700. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-09: Another lower high but also higher lows. Bears are not doing enough, so we are in a trading range below the ath. We are close to it that there is always the possibility of printing a higher high again. Bears need lower lows below 20600 before we can talk about 20000 again. trade of the day: I am always flat into bigger news releases, so shorting into cpi was out of the question. Could you buy the big cpi print near 21500? Well, I would not and I did not. Why? Of course bulls reversed most this week but the spike was so huge, it could have easily become a risk-off event. Biggest question today was, when should you have joined the bulls and when did it became clear that bears can not retest the lows again? Bar 19 had a huge tail below, bears tried to test down to 21500 but failed. Bulls then printed another very strong 5m bar and if you did not want to go long like me, it should have been at least the death for bearish price action for that moment since if bears would have been strong, those big bull bars would have never happened or would have at least been followed by a bear bar and bulls just printed consecutive bull bars.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
Highlights of J.Powell's monetary policy testimony1. Interest rate outlook: Reiterating that there is no need to rush to adjust interest rates. If the economy remains strong and inflation does not get close to 2%, policy can remain prudent for longer. If the labor market weakens unexpectedly or inflation falls more than expected, policy could be loosened modestly. 2. Inflation situation: Long-term inflation expectations appear solid. Inflation is close to the 2% target, but still a bit high. Focus on achieving your dual goals. The Fed's framework review will not focus on inflation targeting. 3. Labor market: Unemployment rate remains low and stable. The labor market situation has cooled after the previous overheating period and remains solid, not becoming a source of inflationary pressure. The labor market situation in general remains balanced. 4. Banking supervision: Commit to adjusting banking supervision activities, avoiding creating excessive burdens for banks. It is necessary to reconsider the "non-bank" issue. Committed to the ultimate goal of completing Basel III. 5. Long-term interest rates: The Federal Reserve cannot control long-term interest rates, and the reason long-term interest rates are high has nothing to do with Federal Reserve policy. Long-term interest rates are determined by supply and demand in the bond market. 6. Tariff issue: I still maintain my previous view that countries implementing free trade will have faster economic growth. The Federal Reserve declined to comment on the Trump administration's tariff policy. 7. Housing issues: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may lower mortgage rates. Even as interest rates fall, the housing shortage continues. It is unclear whether interest rate cuts will lead to a reduction in housing inflation. 8. Other highlights: If the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is shut down, there will be a gap in consumer compliance protections. There is no possibility of launching a central bank digital currency.
TVC:DXY
by Xayah_trading
Are coffee futures starting to show some signs of correction?With coffee futures soaring this year due to supply issues, we are finally seeing some signs of a possible slowdown in the upwards movement. Is this just a temporary correction, before another possible leg of buying? What do you think? MARKETSCOM:COFFEEC 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:COFFEEC
by Marketscom
GOLD skyrocketed then corrected down, main trend structureOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading fluctuated strongly, sometimes soaring to a record high, but then plummeting nearly 40 dollars to the highest level. However, gold prices still increased during the day. On Monday local time, US President Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States. Trump said there will be "no exceptions or exemptions" to these requirements. Trump also said he is considering imposing tariffs on cars, french fries and medicine, and will hold meetings on cars, medicine and french fries over the next four weeks. During the Asian trading session on Tuesday, gold prices soared to 2,942.72 Dollar/ounce, setting a new record high. But then the price of gold suddenly dropped sharply, to the lowest level of 2,905.10 Dollar/ounce. Gold prices then recovered and are currently at about 2,922 Dollar/ounce, up 0.49% on the day. A stronger dollar, coupled with overbought conditions on the daily chart, has prompted some gold profit-taking. However, Trump-related worries seem to be limiting the downside of gold prices and is still the most potential support at present, which can impact gold's price increase at any time. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend congressional hearings on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the market is also paying attention to whether Powell's policy stance will affect gold price trends. Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on February 11. Testify before the House Financial Services Committee the next day. This is the first time he has answered questions from congressional delegates since July last year. Powell's speech will be closely watched for clues about the Fed's interest rate cut roadmap, which will in turn affect the short-term dynamics of the US Dollar and create new directional momentum for gold prices. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has initially achieved the conditions for a new bullish cycle by breaking above the rising price channel, with a price action above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level that will help it potentially move towards the $2,950 – 2,952 level which is the area of ​​the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. For the Relative Strength Index RSI, there is still no signal indicating the possibility of a downward correction. The signal for a downward correction is that the RSI bends and falls below the 80 level. During the day, as long as gold remains in/above the price channel, the main outlook remains technically bullish. Notable levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,909 – 2,900USD Resistance: 2,927 – 2,950 – 2,952USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2955 →Take Profit 1 2944 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2939 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2861 - 2863⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2857 →Take Profit 1 2868 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2873
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2025-02-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: What did we learn today? Market is digesting any newsbombs quicker and quicker but we still have deep pull-backs. Today the volume was atrocious so I don’t think the bullish daily bar is all that important. If bulls get follow-through above 22000 tomorrow, I am clearly wrong and we test 22100 next and afterwards there is no more resistance until 22400. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21300 - 22000 bull case: Bulls only objective is to print higher highs above 21967. Until they achieve that, market is in a triangle and bulls are not favored when buying the highs. They have prevented another much deeper sell-off below 21400 but given the low volume today, I don’t think many will be thrilled to buy above 21800 tomorrow. Above 21967 we go for 22100 next and after that is no more resistance until 21400. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears were fine with the gap down and did not fight the buying today. I do think tomorrow will be very different. Every bear who sold above 21800 made money since end of December. The price action is not bullish enough to make more bears doubt that we will strongly break above this triangle. First target is today’s open, 21760. Then we have the midpoint of this triangle around 21700, followed by last weeks close 21588. Below that is Globex low 21453 and then 21200. Invalidation is above 21970. short term: Bearish. Stop for shorts is 22110. If I’m wrong here, so be it but structure is neutral and odds favor the bears to keep making lower highs now and we test back down to at least the midpoint of this triangle around 21500. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the big Globex gap down and then market did not print one single bearish signal until bar 45 and that was the first, so you can not sell it.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Feb 10 - Feb 14]This week, rising Treasury yields and the threat of a global trade war are contributing to a stagflation environment, causing investors to rush into gold, and spot gold prices at one point climbed as high as $2,886/oz. US President Donald Trump has launched trade war 2.0 with the imposition of strong tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China. The 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico were postponed for a month, but the 10% tariffs on China took effect. China responded with 10-15% tariffs on US energy and agricultural products, effective from February 10, 2025. Trade war 2.0 expands in scope compared to 2018, includes many major trading partners and takes place in parallel with the US-China technology war. Countries with large trade surpluses with the US face the risk of becoming new tariff targets. If negotiations between the US and its partners fail to reach an agreement, retaliation could escalate, disrupting global trade, weakening economic growth and creating inflationary pressures, leading to stagflation, thereby boosting gold prices. On the contrary, if the Trump administration "cools down" the trade war by reaching an agreement after imposing tariffs, gold prices may decrease due to weakening shelter demand. Some economic data affecting gold prices next week: Tuesday: US Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee. Wednesday: US consumer price index (CPI), FED Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee. Thursday: US producer price index (PPI), US weekly unemployment benefit applications. Friday: US retail sales 📌Technically, gold prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium and long term. However, downward corrections can occur at any time considering shorter time frames such as H4, D1. On the H4 chart, the price can adjust to around the hard resistance level which is also the dynamic resistance level around 2790 before entering an upward trend again. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,844 – 2,834USD Resistance: 2,869 – 2,886 – 2,891USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2911 - 2909⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2915 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2789 - 2791⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2785
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
Market Update: Tariffs, Trade Shifts & Bitcoin's Next MoveCME:BTC1! News and Economic Calendar Update President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, effective Monday, with reciprocal tariffs to follow on Tuesday or Wednesday. As Trump has shared, “if they tax us, we tax them the same amount.” This move is expected to reshape global trade relations, with China reportedly considering probes into U.S. tech firms such as Broadcom (AVGO) and Synopsys (SNPS), according to WSJ. Japan's PM Ishiba remains optimistic about avoiding higher U.S. tariffs, while Australia and India are negotiating exemptions and trade concessions. Meanwhile, the EU has hinted at retaliatory measures should new tariffs be imposed. The U.S. dollar strengthened following Friday’s jobs report and fresh tariff announcements, while the Japanese yen under-performed. The EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.03 before rebounding, and the British pound remained stable ahead of comments from BoE’s Mann. U.S. Treasury yields were unchanged, while European bunds edged higher amid rising trade concerns. Gold surged to an all-time high above $2,900/oz, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets due to tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, crude oil reached session highs, and European natural gas prices climbed to a two-year peak due to colder temperatures and tight storage. Looking Ahead Key upcoming data releases include Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, U.S. CPI data, Chinese M2 Money Supply, and U.S. retail sales. Additionally, multiple central bank officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, providing further insights into monetary policy direction. Macro Update: Trade War 2.0 and Tariff Shifts Impact Markets. The latest reciprocal tariff announcements from Trump, in our view, presents a strategic opportunity for the U.S. This approach enables negotiations for lower tariffs on U.S. exports with individual trading partners, fostering a more flexible and targeted trade policy. This shift aligns more with global trade integration and could provide a more balanced framework for U.S. exporters. Gold continues to exhibit renewed strength as a safe-haven asset, marking fresh all-time highs amid market uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bitcoin—often referred to as "digital gold"—has lagged behind, struggling in a climate of risk-off sentiment. However, it remains within its post-election trading range, signaling resilience despite broader market volatility. At the fiscal level, U.S. House Republican leaders are proposing federal spending cuts ranging between $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion, according to Punchbowl sources. These cuts are expected to focus heavily on Medicaid spending. However, the effectiveness of government spending adjustments remains in question—whether such measures will enhance efficiency or simply reduce overall spending is yet to be seen. In addition, extending President Trump’s tax proposals could cut revenue by $5-11T over a decade, potentially pushing U.S. debt to 132-149% of GDP by 2035. Senate Republicans propose $342B in border and defense spending, with offsetting cuts. Meanwhile, Musk’s DOGE Service aims to automate government functions, reduce the federal workforce, and slash spending. Bitcoin Big Picture: Bitcoin has been consolidating after making new all time highs post US elections. Although price action and consolidation points towards further bullishness. We remain cautious and prepared for any of the scenarios that may happen as a result of many different factors influencing risk assets and market sentiment. To better manage your exposure to Bitcoin, consider using CME’s Micro Bitcoin and Bitcoin Friday Futures . Additionally, you can take part in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, allowing you to showcase your Micro Bitcoin trading skills in The Leap —risk-free. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Yearly Hi: 110,920 mCVAH: 104,400 Dec 2024 mid range: 101,570 Jan 2025 mid range: 100,610 mCVPOC: 98,075 mCVAL: 93,730 Key Bull Support: 92,505 - 90,000 Scenario 1: Further chop and acceptance In this scenario, we may see price action remain range bound. Traders look for clarity on how policy may affect market sentiment before further committing capital. Scenario 2: New ATHs Price attempts to create new ATHs which marks a significant move. Although bitcoin created new all time highs in January 2025, these were rejected and price action pointed towards market top. Scenario 3: Souring market sentiment Scenario 2 and 3 requires remaining alert to all developments as fundamental and macro news is turning ever so significant in driving short-term volatility and price action. Any further hint towards tighter monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy may send BTC prices lower very quickly.
CME:BTC1!
by EdgeClear
GOLD recovered strongly, Trump stimulated risk aversionDuring the Asian trading session on Monday (February 10), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot has recovered strongly after a short decline. Gold price has now recovered to about 2,874 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of about 15 USD during the day. US President Donald Trump said on Sunday local time that he would announce a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum on Monday. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that the tariffs would apply to metal imports from every country. He did not specify when the tariffs would be applied. Trump also said he would announce corresponding tariffs later this week for countries that impose tariffs on U.S. imports. These comments stimulated the market's risk aversion, the Asia-Pacific stock market and the US stock futures market fell, and the two safe-haven assets, the US dollar and gold, recovered together. On the daily chart, OANDA:XAUUSD recovered after receiving support from the upper channel edge, and in terms of technical structure nothing changed from previous releases with a bullish bias dominating the technical chart. Maintaining price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci extension provides the conditions for continued upside with the next target being at $2,891 the 0.382% Fibonacci extension, more so than the original price point of $2,900. With the price channel making a short-term uptrend, along with the Relative Strength Index providing no signs of a strong downside correction, gold is expected to continue searching for new all-time highs. The positions will be noted as follows. Support: 2,869 – 2,844 – 2,834USD Resistance: 2,891 – 2,900USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2906 - 2904⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2910 →Take Profit 1 2899 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2894 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2829 - 2831⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2825 →Take Profit 1 2836 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2841
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Crude Oil Analysis near resistance areaAs the market continues to react to various economic indicators and geopolitical developments, Crude Oil prices are currently at a pivotal point. Below are two potential scenarios based on the current market conditions. Current Analysis: Crude Oil is currently facing a critical resistance zone between $71.5 and $72.8. Based on the price action and market sentiment, I foresee two potential scenarios: Scenario 1: Bearish Reversal Resistance Strength: The resistance at $71.5 and $72.8 is strong. Expected Movement: If the price fails to break through this resistance, I anticipate a rebound, leading to a decline towards the $68-$69 area. Action Plan: Entry Signal: Monitor for bearish price action signals, such as a Shooting Star or a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, indicating a potential reversal. Entry Point: Enter a short position upon confirmation of the bearish signal. Target: Set a target at the $68-$69 range. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $72.8 to manage risk effectively. Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout Resistance Strength: The resistance at $71.5 and $72.8 is weak. Expected Movement: If the price successfully breaks above this resistance, I expect it to rally towards the $77-$77.5 area. Action Plan: Entry Signal: Wait for a confirmed close above $72.8, ideally accompanied by a strong bullish candle (preferably a long green candle) to validate the breakout. Entry Point: Enter a long position upon confirmation of the breakout. Target: Set a target in the $78-$79 range. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $71.5 to protect against potential reversals. Summary The key levels to watch are $71.5 and $72.8 for potential reversals or breakouts. I will wait for confirmation through price action signals befare takeing a decision.
NYMEX:CL1!
by dPEngineering
#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: RUN IT AGAIN. Lower highs, higher lows. Body gaps above (small though) and big bull gap below 21200. Market is in balance around 21500 and I do think for now market will spend more time between the given key levels until bigger news change that fact. Play was selling Friday, big gap down Monday and then sideways to up until late Friday. Let’s see if we repeat the cycle. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20500 - 22100 bull case: Bulls want to stay above the weekly 20ema which is currently around 21200. They are fine with this trading range above 20000 because that’s still really bullish if you think about it. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears get spikes and that’s it. They are deep, so they are making money but it’s a tough way to make a living to wait for some news and be quick with the sell button. I do think they are heavily favored to continue down below 21600 and test 21500 and hopefully 21200 again. What I can’t see happening is a lower low below 20940 though. We have a big body gap from 21405 to 21566 and it would be good for the bears if they can close it tomorrow. Invalidation is above 22000. short term: Bearish. I want to see 21200 next week. For now all stops for shorts have to be 21970. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-09: Another lower high but also higher lows. Bears are not doing enough, so we are in a trading range below the ath. We are close to it that there is always the possibility of printing a higher high again. Bears need lower lows below 20600 before we can talk about 20000 again. I still think 20000 is doable in February. current swing trade: None but will decide on futures open tonight if I want to get short with stop 21970. chart update: Added triangle and bull & bear gap.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds