BUY CAUUSD | GC1!You can buy on XAUUSD | GC1! after that we got a reversal at the end of the bearish movement and the beginning of an uptrend. Use same SL and TP as mine.
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Futures
GOLD rebound and limited, trading week with ChristmasUS economic data shows inflation is slowing. Supported by the weakening of the TVC:DXY and US Treasury bond interest rates, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase on Friday (December 18). However, the Fed's hawkish interest rate outlook caused gold prices to fall 0.9% last week.
The Federal Reserve's headline inflation index (PCE) showed price pressures eased last month.
According to data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.1% over the previous month. in November, slower than the 0.3% increase in October. The increase was slightly lower than economists' expectations of 0.2%.
On a yearly basis, core PCE rose 2.8%, matching the increase in October and below Wall Street expectations of 2.9%. Overall PCE increased 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in October.
Earlier this month, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and gas prices, showed prices rose 3.3% year-on-year in November, marking the fourth straight month of increases.
Meanwhile, the core Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks price changes across companies, showed prices rose 3.4% year-on-year in November. The increase was higher October's 3.1% increase also exceeded economists' expectations of 3.2%.
At a press conference following Wednesday's interest rate decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the final phase of the Fed's response to inflation will be more difficult than initially expected.
“We were forecasting inflation at the end of the year, but as we got closer to the end of the year, the forecast was off a little bit,” Powell said. “I would say that's probably the biggest factor, inflation is once again missing expectations.”
So far this year, inflation has slowed but remains above the Fed's 2% target, pressured by recent unexpectedly hot monthly "core" price growth data.
According to the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed expects core inflation to peak at 2.5% next year, up from a forecast of 2.2% in September and falling to 2.0%. 2% in 2026 and 2027 to 2.0%.
Higher inflation expectations, coupled with a slower pace of interest rate cuts next year, have weighed on markets.
On the other hand, the election of Donald Trump as the next president has added to this uncertainty, with some economists suggesting that the United States could face another surge in inflation if Trump makes his move. True to his campaign promises.
Policies proposed by Trump such as imposing high tariffs on imported goods, cutting taxes on businesses and restricting immigration could have an inflationary effect. These policies further complicate the Fed's future interest rate path.
Data and events this week
The market will also welcome the Christmas holiday this week, traders will focus on important events such as "where to get money to buy gifts for bears, where to go so as not to eat dog food, or open the door." Is it a pan or a greeting, honey,... I don't know but I wish you all a happy Christmas and good health hehe." However, some important economic data will be released.
Economic data to watch out for this week
Monday: US consumer confidence
Tuesday: US sustainable goods, US new home sales
Wednesday: Christmas break
Thursday: US weekly unemployment claims
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci level during the weekend trading session, but the recovery is also limited after testing the target resistance level noted by readers in the previous issue at the confluence of the upper edge. price channel and Fibonacci level 0.618%.
Currently, the closing position still supports the possibility of a technical bearish price for gold, with the price channel as the main trend price channel, resistance from Fibonacci 0.618% and pressure at Ema21.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is still operating below the 50 level, quite far from the oversold area, which shows that there is still quite a lot of room for price decline ahead.
As long as gold remains below EMA21, within price channel, it still has a bearish technical outlook and the notable points are listed below.
Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD
Resistance: 2,634 – 2,656USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2650
→Take Profit 1 2639
↨
→Take Profit 2 2634
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2604 - 2606⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2600
→Take Profit 1 2611
↨
→Take Profit 2 2616
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: I know it’s an ugly chart, bear with me.
Gold spent 2020 - 2024 inside a 570 point range and started the recent bull trend with the breakout in 2024-03. Since then Gold has made 30%, which is more than unusual to say the least. From 2018 to 2020 it made 50% but only because it lost 36% from 2011 to 2018.
Market is much less obvious on higher time frames than I’d like. Both sides have reasonable arguments going for them. For bulls it’s that the bull trend is ongoing while bears could see the leg down from 2826 down to 2566 as the first in the new bear trend. Bulls would like a third leg up which could lead to 3000. Both are valid and that is why it’s most likely that the market will move sideways rather than trend big time to either direction. My favorite path forward would be a trend down to 2300 and then sideways inside a big range 2300 - 2600.
current market cycle: Bull trend is ongoing until bears can close consecutive weekly bars below the 20ema, which is at 2640 right now. Could the new bear trend have started with W1 from 2826 down to 2566? Yes. Both can be valid at the same time.
key levels for 2025: 2500 - 3000 (if 2500 breaks, 2300 would be the next big target below)
bull case: Bulls want a W5 up to 3000. Easy as pie is that read and seeing it on the chart. Hard part, as always, is giving probabilities to it and as of now, I won’t make any. The market is in balance around 2650 and I would need prices above 2760 or below 2560 to have a stronger opinion about it. That’s short but all I have to write about it for now. Can’t make stuff up where there is none.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Bears see the move down from the ath as a W1 of the new bear trend which could lead down to my biggest bear goal for 2025 at 2200ish. Here are the big bear targets in order. First is the 50% retracement of the recent bull trend at 2500. It’s also the breakout price from the W1 high and the old ath from 2011-08. Second bigger target would be 2300 which is a measured move down from the bearish W1 from the ath, the 2023-05 high (breakout-retest) and it would close the big bull gap the market left behind. Third and final target, which is the most unreasonable one for now, is 2200 which is the 50% retracement from the whole bull trend since 2018.
Invalidation is above 3050.
short term: Neutral. Lower highs and higher lows. Market is in a triangle again and in balance around 2650.
medium-long term: Will only give one above 2760 or below 2560.
current swing trade: None
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: For the sp500 the start of the bull trend is a bit less clear as for dax. My take is that it started with the 2023-10 low and before that was still the big trading range the main pattern. Does it matter if my wave thesis is off for W1 or where W4 ended? I don’t think it does. My targets (obvious magnets) would still be the same. We have a bull trend that went up a pretty perfect measured move from the Covid low to the 2023-10 low. This will be my biggest target for 2025. We then have a perfect magnet down to the previous ath from 2022-01 at 5300, which is the 50% retracement of the bull trend from 2023-10 to the ath. 5300 will be the first and most important target for the bears in the medium-term. Depending on how we get there, we can estimate on if and how we could get down to 4400. As of now, it is unlikely that we will see 4400 in 2025. Something bigger has to happen and markets need to change drastically. A liquidity event would certainly help.
current market cycle: Bull trend from 2023-10 has likely ended already and we are transitioning into a trading range or new bear trend. By the end of January we will know for sure what it will be.
key levels for 2025: 5000 - 6200
bull case: Since the bigger western indexes are highly correlated, many arguments for them are the same. Past two years gave the bulls 55+% in gains while the biggest pull-back was 10% in 2024-08. The bulls have made money buying the weekly 20ema for a year and they don’t want to stop because this time it surely is different and valuations are boomer metrics for poor people who did not get in on the latest fartcoin pump. I don’t have anything more to say in this section.
Invalidation is below 4400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 4000 again.
bear case: Long ongoing climactic bull trend and every new high got smaller. Bears know the bulls have to take profit at some point, especially after a prolonged period without pull-backs. Once the profit taking get’s going, this will accelerate downwards to find bigger support. The first target for the bears is a daily close below 5900 and then a test of the nearest bull trend line around 5800. We can only expect more sideways once we get there. When bears finally break it, 5500 is the next obvious magnet and we then have only one more big bull trend line left, which is the one from the Covid lows. As mentioned above, the 50% retracement for this trend is as perfect as it get’s the previous ath near 5300 and for now this will be my biggest target to hit in 2025. Again, depending on how we get there, we can either estimate lower targets or expect the market to move sideways in a bigger range.
Invalidation is above 6300.
short term: Same argument for year end rally as for dax. Highest I can see this going for 6250 (give or take) and then we will test the first bull trend line around 5800 over the next weeks. 5500 in Q1 is my estimate as of now.
medium-long term: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None but same argument as for dax. Short ETF until we hit 5300 is reasonable.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 12.22 - 12.27/24Last Week :
Last week we had contract roll and Fed week, for over 2 weeks price kept holding around/over 6074 - 54 HTF Edge which also happened to be Daily Edge as well which makes it a significant area. We kept holding at/above it but we would not get any pushes or acceptance inside new Value and instead we kept seeing sells from every push attempt into new VAL. Contract roll came again giving us a gap in prices which put new contract inside the Value of new HTF Range where we were able to balance while waiting for the Fed. After the Fed announcement we got a sell down towards the lower Edge and filled the Roll Gap we created, but we also took out the Edge fully which had over 2 weeks of Supply built up over it and it caused more aggressive selling which gave us a HTF Edge to Edge move to finish up that Day which put back in 6074 - 5913 HTF Range where we have previously found acceptance in. Thursday we didn't get continuation under the Edge, instead we had selling from Ranges Value which closed right into the Edge. Friday Pre-Market price got under the Edge and made a push for lower Value but we didn't quite make it to take the swing stops which were under 5860s and instead we ran out of supply, rotated back above accepted Ranges Edge and pretty much got short covering before the weekend/holidays to take us all the way back up to the upper Edge where we failed under with price settling back inside Ranges Mean.
This Week :
We have last week of the year pretty much, Holidays coming up and we had some crazy moves up and down last week that gave us big ranges after we spent quite a bit of days going back and forth inside smaller ranges, so what can we expect this week ?
It could definitely be a tricky week, as there are always chances for more continuation to the downside, chances to keep rotating higher so we have to be on the look out, but from what structure and price so far is telling us is that we have found acceptance back inside 6074 - 5913 HTF Range, we are back under Daily Edge with Supply still above us, with shorter Holiday weeks coming and end of year, will we get more crazy action or will things possibly slow down again as we will have much fomo from the flush down and from the rally up that was probably missed by many. Price is currently back inside 6023 - 5973 Intraday Range where it found some balance before, IF we don't get the volume selling or buying then we could see price to balance inside/around this Intraday Range and stay around this current HTF Ranges Value, after failing at VAH we could still target moves towards VAL and if there is enough Volume we could even see it try to push out of VAL but we have to be careful because if we don't find acceptance on pushes over VAH or under VAL then we could continue seeing price come back inside the Value and continue balancing around it. Careful for ranges to become smaller again which means its not time to be greedy and focus on good entries and smaller profit targets.
If we do get acceptance over or under the Value we would need to see good moves into or through the HTF Edges for us to see attempts to move into different Ranges Values.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 22 - Dec 27]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD fell quite sharply from 2,664 USD/oz to 2,582 USD/oz, then recovered to 2,631 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,622 USD/oz.
The reason gold prices dropped sharply this week is because the FED cut interest rates by another 0.25% as predicted. However, what caused disappointed investors to sell off gold was because the Fed chairman said he would only cut interest rates two more times in 2025. Previously, in September 2024, the FED predicted four more cuts. interest rate next year.
In the same context, the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index in November increased by 2.8% over the same period last year, unchanged compared to October, but still much higher than the target. of the Fed is 2%. This also strengthens the possibility that the FED will reduce the current monetary easing cycle.
Furthermore, Donald Trump is about to take office as US President for his second term. If Mr. Trump implements a fiscal expansion policy and sharply increases tariffs with America's trading partners, it will significantly reduce the country's trade deficit, meaning the supply of USD will decrease sharply, pushing the currency This increases, thereby negatively affecting gold prices. Furthermore, Mr. Trump's tax policy also increases inflation, forcing the Fed to delay cutting interest rates, or even raise interest rates again if inflation skyrockets.
Next week's gold price is likely to be torn between FED's monetary policy and geopolitical instability. However, next week, most international investors will be on holiday for Christmas and New Year 2025, so gold trading volume will decrease sharply, causing gold prices next week to only fluctuate within a narrow range.
📌From a technical perspective, next week's gold price will likely continue to adjust and accumulate. Accordingly, if next week's gold price still trades above the threshold of 2,582 USD/oz, it will continue to move sideways within the range of 2,585 - 2,665 USD/oz before the holiday. On the contrary, if next week's gold price is pushed below 2,582 USD/oz, there is a risk of falling to 2,530 USD/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD
Resistance: 2,623 – 2,634 – 2,656USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2666 - 2664⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2670
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2529 - 2531⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2525
NQ Weekly and Longer term Bias (We were fire last week, check)hey guys just my weekly chart and levels going into the week. everyone expecting a santa rally, not so positive... i could see it mooning from here, don't get me wrong. im much more bullish this week than last now that we got some sort of correction (check last weeks analysis for real, read the chart and play the thing for the week, we cooked, hope you all did too, all 3).
anyway a lot on there, i think it's downward, people buying the wrong dip in my opinion, much more liquidation to come.
good luck
HBAR. From $0.23 to the Moon? Hedera’s Growth Potential!BYBIT:HBARUSDT
The asset looks promising during a correction, as it is being heavily accumulated at the $0.25381–$0.23456 level, which supports price growth. I believe it has strong potential for upward movement.
HBAR is the native cryptocurrency of the Hedera public network. Hbars are used for powering decentralized applications, peer-to-peer and micropayments, as well as securing the network—Hedera employs a proprietary protocol with elements of Proof-of-Stake.
DYOR.
ADA. Correction Opportunity: Don’t Miss This Entry! 12/20/24BYBIT:ADAUSDT
The market experienced a pullback, and the price returned to the lower boundary of the range before breaking through its support and moving toward a high-volume level, where a strong buyer was present. We also saw a proper Fibonacci correction, which might indicate a potential reversal and a good entry point for a spot position.
I'm entering with 0.5% of my deposit and will add another 0.5% in case of further correction.
DYOR.
NEON Set to Explode? Don’t Miss Out! 12/20/24Previously, #NEON peaked at $3.8.
Currently, the market is in an accumulation phase (where investors gradually buy assets), and the price occasionally rises in small bursts—#NEON is a perfect example of this trend.
I recommend gradually buying #NEON on the spot market and adding to your position over time. A solid move could be on the horizon.
DYOR.
Bitcoin technical analysis + trade planThe chart shows a clear falling wedge formation. This is a bullish reversal pattern that suggests a potential upward breakout.
Price is nearing the wedge's apex, indicating that a breakout might be imminent.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels:
$88,671.83 (near-term critical support)
$86,000.00 (strong psychological support)
Resistance Levels:
$95,497.11 (short-term resistance near breakout zone)
$108,329.96 (target resistance post-breakout)
Indicators:
VWMC Cipher B Divergences:
Bullish divergence appears on the indicator, aligning with the falling wedge's bullish potential.
RSI:
RSI is below 30, indicating oversold conditions, which often precede a rebound.
Money Flow Index (MFI):
MFI is oversold, suggesting incoming buying pressure.
Stochastic Oscillator:
Stochastic is in the oversold region (<20), showing high potential for a bullish reversal.
Market Sentiment:
Given the oversold indicators and bullish pattern, the market is primed for a potential upside movement. However, confirmation of the breakout is critical.
Trading Plan:
Entry Strategy:
Enter long near the wedge's lower boundary (~$90,000), with a tight stop loss below $88,000.
Conservative Entry:
Wait for a breakout above the wedge's resistance (~$96,000) and enter after confirmation with a retest of the breakout level.
Stop-Loss Placement:
Place stop-loss below the nearest support level:
Aggressive traders: $87,500
Conservative traders: $92,000 (post-breakout retest failure)
Profit Targets:
First Target: $108,329.96 (major resistance level post-breakout)
Second Target: $114,000 (psychological level, based on historical price action)
Risk Management:
Risk no more than 1-2% of your portfolio per trade.
Use position sizing to balance risk-to-reward ratios (minimum 1:3).
Monitoring
Volume: Ensure the breakout is accompanied by increased volume.
Candle Structure: A solid close above $96,000 validates the move.
Invalidation:
If the price falls below $88,000, the wedge pattern is invalidated, signaling further downside.
Alternative Scenario (Bearish):
If Bitcoin breaks below $86,000, expect a test of lower levels. Potential targets include $82,000 and $78,000.
Bitcoin is poised for a significant move. The falling wedge, oversold indicators, and strong support levels suggest an imminent bullish breakout. However, patience for confirmation is key to minimizing risk and maximizing gains. Adjust your strategy dynamically based on market conditions.
2024-12-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Bears confirmed the sell-off and bears are hoping for a second leg down. I lean to closing tomorrow near 20000 instead of a big second leg down tomorrow but I am open to surprises. Anything above 20150 would surprise me.
comment : Bear confirmation and I got 2 measured move targets between 19750 and 19800. Can we get there tomorrow? Possible but not likely I think. We saw decent buying above 19900 and I think it’s more reasonable to expect a close of the week around 19950 - 20000. If bear gap from 20100 - 20200 stay open for the whole 100 points, it would show great bear strength and we could expect a bigger second leg down. Base case for me tomorrow is chop from hell.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19800 - 20200
bull case: Bulls tried multiple times and market still closed the US session at the lows. Best bulls can hope for tomorrow is to prevent the second leg down and stay above 19900.
Invalidation is below 19900.
bear case: Follow-through selling by the bears which is nice. For now I think it’s more reasonable for bears to take profits going into quad witching and that’s probably why we saw a bigger trading range today. Look at the 1h 20ema and if it continues to be resistance.
Invalidation is above 20200.
short term: Neutral around 20000 and very bearish below 19900. I expect this week to close a bit below 20000 and anything below 19900 would surprise me.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Chop chop. Best trade was probably selling the double top bar 54 (prev high was bar 35).
2024-12-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Bearish. I doubt we can close the week below 2560 but we now have a giant bear gap between 2615 - 2652. No interested in selling this tomorrow but if we close the week below 2600, the bull trend is gone for good.
comment : No matter what you think China is doing with Gold, this market is going down. We are 200 points below the ath and the bull trend is most likely over. If we close this week below 2630, it would be the second close below the weekly 20ema since January.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2590 - 2640
bull case : Bulls are in pain. Every rip is sold hard and we have a clear bear channel. Hard to come up with arguments for the bulls right now. Best they can hope for is to stay above 2600 but this market is as weak as it gets since last week.
Invalidation is below 2595.
bear case: 2566 is their main target and I am not confident they can get it tomorrow. I expect more chop near 2600 over the next 2 weeks but for Q1 I have wet dreams about 2400. If you want to trade this, look for shorts near the 3h or 4h 20ema and longs only if 2600 continues to be bigger support.
Invalidation is above 2642.
short term: Neutral. I don’t expect this to go into the weekend far from 2600 but for next 2 weeks I have 2 measured move targets below 2570.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-19: No bigger opinion on this for the rest of 2024. Market is in balance until we see a new impulse. Likely close around 2600.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: selling near the 4h 20ema or bear trend line.
Ethereum Fibonacci Retracement SetupThis ethereum setup I use is on the 15 minute chart. The signals are SMA crossovers of the 13/55. And the moving average plots are using Golden Ratio numbers to forecast near term price movements. Lastly I use a sessions indicator to show the New York & Tokyo sessions. As well as a tick value indicator to show me how much the tick value of the futures contract for Ethereum.
Crossover Signals:
Long - SMA 13 > SMA 55
Short - SMA 13 < SMA 55
Golden Ratio Plots (SMA):
111 - White
233 - Red
610 - Green
Timeframe :
15 minute
2024-12-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion. Can the selling continue and accelerate? Yes. Can we also see a bigger bounce from 20000? Also yes. Not as easy to trade as you might think because bounces can be big and you have to trade really small. Huge volatility is not the time to swing for the fences. 19802 is the next target for bears (breakout retest) and chances are good that we get there. 20000 is a very important number and that is why the path leading down to 19800 could be choppier than your account is comfortable with.
comment : Bull trend is likely over and I will give my bigger outlook on the next weekly update. US session closed it around 20000 and that price is the obvious magnet. 1h close below brings 19800 in play but it’s also possible that we bounce from here. Selling was strong enough that the best bulls can get over the next days is some sideways movement. Don’t short the hole. We have quad witching this week and markets can always do a huge pullback.
current market cycle: bull trend is very likely over - expecting more sideways until end of 2024 before the real selling can begin
key levels: 19800 - 20400
bull case: Bulls could be running for the exits to secure the profits. It’s hard to tell in quad witching weeks because prices tend to get distorted. In any case the upside will very likely be limited now. Best bulls can hope for tomorrow is sideways around 20000. Any bounce above 20200 would surprise me.
Invalidation is below 19800.
bear case: Huge day for the bears and they want to accelerate this down to trap many late bulls. 19800 is the breakout retest and their next target. If we drop below, this could get really nasty. 19600 is close to the big bull trend line and other markets have already broken theirs, so it could happen this week. If you still have long positions, I would not hope for a huge year end rally and just get out.
Invalidation is above 20400.
short term: Neutral around 20000. Bears need follow through down to 19800 and they can get it but always remember, markets can have huge pullbacks and huge volatility comes with big risk, so trade small.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Choppy EU session and it closed near the open. FOMC totally changed the markets and now it comes down to tomorrow’s follow through by the bears. No trade of the day. You could not have known what Jpow says and how markets react. Don’t fool yourself.
2024-12-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Selling was too strong to be just a pullback in this bull trend. Best guess is that the trend is over and we are in a huge two-legged correction down to 5800 or lower. 5927 was the low from my W2 and we can expect sideways to up around this price. The lower bull wedge trend line should get a retest.
comment : Bull trend is over. We are likely in a trading range the next weeks until we begin a new bigger bear trend. Bulls can still make a higher but it has gotten very unlikely after today’s selling. Huge follow-through would be down to 5800 but that’s a bit much for now. A bounce could retest the lower bull wedge line around 6000-6050, depending on when we get there, if we get there.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5800 - 6050
bull case: Bulls might be running for the exits. Very interesting day tomorrow if bears can close another one below 6000 or if we trade back up. I would only take longs on very strong momentum. First target for bulls is 6000 and then 6050ish.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears with a huge surprise bar, changing the market character and ending this rally. Now their target is to keep the market below 6000 and then they have a chance of selling down to 5800. It is still somewhat unlikely to see bigger follow-through selling during these weeks of the year but it could happen. Right now it’s best to be flat and wait if bears want more blood.
Invalidation is above 6100.
short term: Neutral. Only small scalps for me to either direction. Can have bigger swings going into Opex on Friday. Expecting a bigger bounce going into the last 2 weeks of December and then much bigger selling in Q1 2025.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Nothing. Don’t gamble FOMC or other news releases.
TQRGET REACHED ON CRUDE OILEarlier I posted to buy on CL1! | USOUSD | CRUDE, after that I posted to sell and reverse the position, now the market reached our target which was the LQ Level, 2 good trades today!
Follow for more daily trades!
TP REACHED ON NASDAQMinutes ago I posted to sell on NASDAQ and the market reached our TP, a small quick trade to start the day with.
Follow for more!
SELL CRUDE OILI'm sharing with you another trade today and this time on CL | USOIL | USOUSD, you xan sell targetting the same level as mine with the same SL.
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SELL NASDAQ I'm sharing with you a quick trade on NASDAQ, you can sell and target the same level as mine.
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GOLD is neutral on the most important event day of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery decreased under pressure from the US Dollar and US Treasury bond interest rates increased sharply. Strong US retail sales data caused gold prices to plummet to a week low of 2,633 USD/ounce yesterday trading day. Today (Wednesday), markets will focus on the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year.
About economic data
US retail sales rose more than expected in November, fueling rising inflation data in recent months and suggesting the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in January next year.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in November, the highest growth rate since September and above the 0.6% gain. expected.
Retail sales data for the first two months of the year was revised upward and October data was revised from a monthly increase of 0.4% to 0.5%.
The most important event this trading week
On Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate resolution and summary of economic expectations. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Investors will need to pay close attention to the meeting statement and the press conference held by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell after the meeting to further assess future policy trends.
The Fed's updated economic forecasts and Dotplot charts are also the focus of market attention as they could reshape expectations about the trajectory of interest rates in 2025 and 2026.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. What Powell "breathes" out will create big fluctuations in the market.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch Tool" shows traders see a 95.4% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Additionally, investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points by 2025.
So the question is whether the Fed will be more hawkish or dovish than the market expects. Because of Trump's victory, the market will have to reassess the Fed's interest rate expectations, and may need to be more cautious about further interest rate cuts at this time.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold attempted to recover after testing the 0.618% Fibonacci level, a position that readers noticed in the previous issue.
Temporarily, the trend of gold prices is noticed by the price channel, however the position is quite neutral with price activity around EMA21 and the Relative Strength Index also sticking around 50.
Perhaps, the technical chart needs a sudden impact to create a trend, and considering the current position, gold could increase in price if it breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level then the target level is about 2,676USD In the short term, more than $2,693.
On the other hand, if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement support level, it could open a new bearish cycle with price activity returning to the price channel and the target then being around 2,591USD in the medium term.
During the day, the technical trend is neutral and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,634 – 2,603 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2684
→Take Profit 1 2673
↨
→Take Profit 2 2668
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2617
→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2633
ETH. Ethereum’s Potential Surge to $7,000. 12/18/24BINANCE:ETHUSDT
The current price of Ethereum is nearing a level historically associated with resistance to further growth. Specifically, ETH is attempting to surpass the $4,095 mark, and it will be intriguing to see if it succeeds. Should the price break through this resistance, a powerful upward movement could follow.
I recommend using the current chart and the $4,095 price level as a reference point for analyzing other altcoins. If Ethereum manages to break this level, it may influence the performance of other cryptocurrencies as well.
The all-time high is $4,868, and if the current resistance level ($4,095) is breached, the next growth target will be this historical peak.
Locally, we might witness a correction to around $3,800, followed by a rebound and further breakout to $4,000. In the case of a more significant correction, I plan to add to my position at the $3,618 level.
My targets for Ethereum in Q1 2025: $6,000–$7,000. Keep this in mind. Ultimately, what you decide to do is entirely up to you.
DYOR.
NOT 1D. Why I Avoid High-Risk Altcoins: Lessons from NotcoinBINANCE:NOTUSDT
Before investing in altcoins, it's crucial to thoroughly analyze them and understand the associated risks.
In classical investment strategies, two key factors are always relevant: buying at a good price and selling at the right time. For example, with Notcoin, after 114 days, the token price returned to the $0.007076 support level and showed only minor growth. In the same timeframe, Bitcoin and many altcoins have already doubled in value since August 2024. Let that sink in.
In my opinion, buying altcoins like Notcoin may not be advisable, as their growth is often less significant compared to Bitcoin and other major altcoins. This makes such investments risky, at least in my subjective view.
If you hold tokens obtained from airdrops, it’s essential to sell them when prices hit their peak (ideally at swing highs), as these tokens are likely to see a sharp decline after reaching their maximum value during overhyped periods.
Specific Outlook for #NOT:
I expect a correction to the $0.007076 support level, followed by a rebound to the $0.017544 resistance level. At that point, I plan to withdraw my initial investment and might even lock in some profits from my main position.
Overall, I urge you again to avoid taking excessive risks with altcoins. Diversify your portfolio and aim to sell these types of assets at their peak.
DYOR.
