GOLD follows geopolitical trendsOANDA:XAUUSD fell on Friday (October 4) after a better-than-expected US jobs report dampened expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, boosting the dollar. However, geopolitical risks related to Israel and Iran supported gold prices, limiting the downward adjustment.
The U.S. labor market added more jobs than expected in September, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, reflecting the job market outlook, the U.S. Department of Labor reported last Friday. much stronger than expected.
New U.S. nonfarm payrolls totaled 254,000 in September, above August's revised 159,000 and better than market expectations of 150,000. The unemployment rate decreased 0.1% month-on-month to 4.1% in September. The market expects the unemployment rate to stabilize at 4.2%.
As a key indicator of inflationary pressures, annual wage growth increased to 4% from 3.9% in August, a monthly increase of 0.4%, in line with August data, The labor force participation rate was unchanged from the previous month at 62.7%.
After strong employment data, the market expects that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December, while lowering expectations for interest rate cuts at the next four Fed meetings to less than 100 basis points.
According to CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool", the market currently predicts the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 97.4% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 2.6%. .
Israel does not guarantee not to carry out retaliatory attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities
On Friday (October 4) local time, a senior US State Department official announced that Israel has not assured the Biden administration that it will not carry out retaliatory attacks against facilities. Iran's nuclear program.
Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening a new, much more dangerous front in the war raging across the Middle East.
The US official added that it was difficult to know whether Israel would launch a retaliatory strike on October 7, the first anniversary of a major attack by Hamas on Israel.
Israeli officials say Israel will launch "retaliation" in the next few days after a major Iranian missile attack, possibly targeting oil production facilities and other strategic locations in Iran - according to Axios reported Wednesday.
Iran threatened Tuesday to launch another attack if Israel responded with force following the launch of nearly 200 missiles.
Axios also reported Israeli officials saying that if this happens, all options will be on the table, including an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
This week, the US will release inflation data, initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index. At the same time, the geopolitical situation will continue to limit the decline in gold prices. An escalation in the conflict involving Hezbollah, Iran, Israel and the United States would be expected to provide potential support for new highs in gold prices.
Economic data to watch out for this week
Wednesday: Minutes of September FOMC meeting
Thursday: US Consumer Price Index(CPI), Weekly Jobless Claims
Friday: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold had a highly volatile trading week but overall remained stable with an uptrend, and all downward corrections recovered quickly when reaching support levels of interest to readers at 2,624 - 2,645 USD.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down from the overbought level, but the slope is not large and does not create any significant decline, showing that the market sentiment does not want to short-sell gold and the selling motivation is very weak.
The trend of gold price will still be stable with short-term price channel and EMA21 as main support. As long as gold remains in the price channel, its technical outlook is still bullish.
The target level is fixed at 2,672 USD, which means the nearest resistance is at 2,672 USD followed by the previously established all-time high of 2,685 USD.
In the coming time, the gold price outlook will be shaped by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,645 – 2,634 – 2,624USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2673 - 2671⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2677
→Take Profit 1 2666
↨
→Take Profit 2 2661
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2629 - 2631⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2625
→Take Profit 1 2636
↨
→Take Profit 2 2641
Futures
US30 H4 - Sell SignalUS30 H4
When the markets opened, we saw a large gap to the upside. Following another 30-60 minutes, what would have been our SL would have been knocked. That being said, we wait patiently for the markets to settle before then deciding how we are going to take out trades. We are still very much focussed on this same trading zone, hence the analysis remains the same.
I'll be looking for price to reject this 42,300 price again and test the underside for us to consider and measure entries. Lets see what unfolds, but this setup is still on the cards.
US100 H4 - Sell SignalUS100 H4
Working from the slightly larger timeframes at the moment, as we are trying to block out the market open gaps/noise and surrounding factors. If the dollar is looking to trade closer to 103.000 we could see NAS fall in the short term and continue, but we could also see the correction unfold for the dollar.
At the moment, we are in no mans land, we are neither confident in longs or shorts, we are merely just waiting for a little bit more confirmation on where we are heading, so we can then try and measure opportunity accordingly. Hopefully we can see something for consideration around the time of US market open.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 07 - Oct 11]In the beginning of last week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 2,624 USD/oz to 2,672 USD/oz due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Immediately afterwards, international gold prices dropped to close to 2,631 USD/oz after US non-agricultural employment figures for September were announced at 254,000 jobs, much higher than the forecast of 147,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also decreased to 4.1% from 4.2% in August. In addition, wages increased more than expected when they increased by 0.4% last month. This reduces expectations that the FED will continue to cut interest rates by 0.5% next month. However, concerns about the escalating Middle East conflict pushed gold prices up to 2,670 USD/oz, then closed the week at 2,653 USD/oz.
This week, the US will release the minutes of the FED meeting and inflation indicators, such as the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI). Previously, the FED paid more attention to labor market data. Now the escalating geopolitical conflict threatens to push oil prices up even more, putting pressure on inflation, so CPI and PPI will receive special attention from the market. If these two figures increase sharply, the FED may delay, or only cut interest rates by 0.25% next month. This will have a negative impact on gold prices next week, possibly pushing gold prices below the 2,600 USD/oz area.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, the gold price moves sideways and accumulates in a triangle model. If the 2630 support zone is penetrated, the gold price will adjust to below 2600. However, if the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates strongly, it is possible that next week's gold price will break its peak. 2,700 USD/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.600 – 2.625USD
Resistance: 2.700 – 2.676USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2711 - 2709⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2715
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2585
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: 2640 - 2700 is the range. Play it. Bulls bought the trend line on Friday and are free to continue the meltup. Above 2680 I expect another try of 2700 and a possible 3rd leg (W5) up to 2800 or higher. Bears need something below 2640 for maybe retesting 2600 (the bigger bull trend line is around that price) but for now I can’t see this happening. The rally/bubble is in full force and market is finding buyers on any pullback. Weekly chart gives a good picture. Last time market stalled 3 weeks before another strong leg up.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls hit 2700 as expected and we pulled back some. I do expect this pullback to become a great buying opportunity but I don’t know how far down bears can get it. Obvious magnets are the breakout price 2630, daily 20ema or the bull trend line around 2620.
comment : My bearish target was 2630 and low of the week was 2646, I do think that is as good of an outlook as it gets. We are still low enough to justify buying 2667 but your stop would have to be 2640. Until the bull trend line and daily 20ema are broken, market is max bullish, so look for longs.
current market cycle: very strong bull trend
key levels: 2640 - 2710 (will probably break above again)
bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side and all patterns are as bullish as it gets. Bull trend line held and a buy is a decent trade right now for 2700 or higher. My target for W5 is around 2780. If bulls fail at this smaller bull trend line, the next bigger one would be around 2600 and that is probably the absolute best bears could get over the next days/weeks.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears want to break below the minor bull trend line and the daily ema. We have not touched the daily 20ema for a month so don’t expect the first touch to be a strong break below. Bears do not have good arguments for more weakness and I won’t make some up. Anything below 2640 would surprise me and odds would rise to test down 2600 but right now it’s low probability.
Invalidation is above 2710.
outlook last week:
short term : Neutral and I will only look for longs in Gold. If bears show strength, I might try a small short scalp and hope for 2630 or lower and then I wait for bulls to come around again. Making money on the long side here is the way to go.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2668 and now we are at 2667. Outlook. Was. Perfect. Hope you made some.
short term: Neutral around 2640 - 2670 but favoring the bulls to break above 2670 for 2700 and higher. If bears show strength below 2640, it would be a reasonable trade to try a short for 2600.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bull gaps to highlight the bullishness..
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.06 - 10.11Last Week :
Sunday Globex held the Edge after open which gave us an attempt at above VAL into Mondays RTH Close. We pushed above the distribution balance, consolidated under next ranges VAL and sold back to Balance low. We spent the whole week filling out that area under the Edge with sells into VAH but we never got clear acceptance under 730s which is what was needed for any more downside from there, instead we would look under distribution balance low and come back towards the middle. After getting no continuation lower we got short covering on Friday before the weekend which drove prices back to balance top with a close over the Edge.
This Week :
Close over the Edge could be seen as strength and could bring in more buyers if we hold over it or at least over 780s, but we have to be careful over 800s because until we accept over VAL and start transacting inside next ranges Value then price may want to keep coming back inside and under the Edge of current HTF Range which is 5772 - 5650+/-.
If we do get a push above but again fail to hold/get over VAL then we would look for a return back into the Edge and from there possible sells into the Supply towards balance low/VAH.
IF we do return back into/under the Edge and will have enough supply built up which may take some time this week to built up we could attempt a push into lower Value and that's an IF as we may have another sort of inside week inside the distribution balance.
For strength to come in and start thinking of higher prices from 800s we would need to start holding over the Edge and start transacting over VAL over 830s until then we can stay around distribution balance building Supply to bring back inside lower Value cost basis to fill the buyers there, may still need time to build up for that.
Until then balance.
GOLD decreased slightly after the US employment reportOANDA:XAUUSD fell in the trading session on Friday (October 4), when traders almost stopped betting on the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates by 0.5 percentage points in next meeting. Interest rate expectations moved strongly after the market received the US September employment report much better than expected.
At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market decreased by 2.2 USD/oz compared to the closing level of the previous session, equivalent to a decrease of 0.08%, to 2,654.3 USD/oz - according to data from the exchange. Kitco translation. For the whole week, spot gold price decreased by 4.6 USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of 0.17%.
A report from the US Department of Labor shows that the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector in September reached 254,000 jobs, far exceeding the forecast of 150,000 new jobs that economists made in a survey by Dow Jones news agency. The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1% instead of remaining at 4.2% as forecast.
The USD increased sharply after the above report was published, and bets on a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut at the Fed's November meeting almost disappeared. All of these movements put downward pressure on the price of gold - the asset is priced in USD and does not carry interest.
The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the USD compared to six other major currencies, increased nearly 0.5%, closing Friday at 102.49 points, the highest since mid-August.
This week, the Dollar Index increased by 2.1% due to a sharp drop in expectations for a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut by the Fed, not to mention the need to hedge against Middle East geopolitical risks, which encouraged investors to buy the currency. greenbacks and US treasury bonds. In the past month, the index has increased nearly 1.3% - according to data from MarketWatch.
2024-10-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
oil - Continues to be wild. Got stopped out too many times today and wanted to hurt myself. Huge tails on daily bars above and today a 350 (5%) tick ripper. Bulls just melted through the bear trend line. Can absolutely be a bull trap and we see another giant pullback but for now I would not short it. If anything, I am not touching this for couple of day I think.
comment : Market was very two sided until the spike above 72.20 happened. Market also did not accomplish anything after that spike, which leaves us not that much smarter going into tomorrow. It could very well see a big pullback or even proving to be a bull trap near the bear trend line.
current market cycle : trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart. If bulls continue above 74, it’s likely a new bull trend and could get us to 78.
key levels : 66 - 74
bull case: Bulls let it drop below 67 and still managed to rip 300 ticks higher. Wild times currently. If you are a bull and want to buy this, you need really wide stops or wait for insane pullbacks. Not easy to trade. Bulls want a breakout above the bear trend line and hit 75. Above 75 is most likely no resistance until 77. Since the pullbacks are so deep, I doubt there are many bulls who want to buy 74 in hopes of breaking the trend line but I am open for surprises.
Invalidation is below 70.4.
bear case: Bears have the do or die moment at 74. Defend the bear trend or give up until we hit the next big bear trend line around 78. Given the erratic moves, bears are alive and well, mostly anyway. Anything below 71 would be a huge win for the bears tomorrow. Daily 20 ema is also flat, decreases the chance for the bulls.
Invalidation is above 74.2.
short term: Neutral around 74. Bearish below 73 for 70 again. If bulls can continue above 74.2, we could see more giving up by the bears and another strong move to 76 or 78. Very low probability though.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Not going there today. You can’t expect this spike. Don’t fool yourself.
Natural Gas at Key Resistance: Rejection or Breakout?Hey traders! Natural Gas (GAZ) is currently testing a strong resistance level. There’s a chance we could see a rejection here, with the price pulling back toward the support level. If this happens, we could also see a gap fill at the support, making it a potential target zone.
Here’s the setup I’m watching:
Resistance Level: Price is testing resistance; we could see a rejection soon.
Support Level: A pullback could take us down to support, with a potential gap fill in that area.
Target Zone: Watch for price action around support as a potential entry point.
Stay sharp and trade wisely!
ADP exerts pressure, but geopolitics is the main influence nowOANDA:XAUUSD is trading quite stable during the Asian trading session on October 3, as of the time this article was completed, spot gold was trading at 2,655USD/oz.
After the release of stronger-than-expected US ADP data the previous trading day, the US Dollar strengthened and gold prices plummeted to 2,640.91USD/ounce. However, affected by tensions in the Middle East, gold prices have recovered strongly from low levels.
Although the "small non-farm" ADP data stimulated a rise in the US Dollar and US bond yields, which was not good for gold prices, tensions in the Middle East supported gold prices, which is very easy to see recently as news and breaking points from the Middle East cover the market.
U.S. ADP private-sector employment rose by 143,000 in September, more than an expected gain of 125,000, according to Wednesday's economic data. The previous value was an increase of 99,000.
Israel will carry out “massive retaliation” in the next few days
Israeli officials say Israel will launch "significant retaliation" in the coming days to Iran's major missile attack on Tuesday, which could target oil production facilities and other strategic locations in Iran, the American news website Axios reported on Wednesday.
Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening a new, much more dangerous front in the war raging across the Middle East.
Iran threatened Tuesday to launch another attack if Israel responded with force following the launch of nearly 200 missiles on Tuesday.
On Wednesday local time, Iranian President Pezeshyan visited Qatar and held talks with Qatari Emir (Head of State) Tamim. Pezeshchiyan said in a press conference after the talks that Israel's military operations against the Gaza Strip, attacks on Hamas leader Haniyeh in Iran and military attacks against Lebanon forced Iran to respond. pay.
Pezeshchiyan warned that if Israel carries out retaliatory attacks on Iran, Iran will respond more forcefully.
In times of political uncertainty, gold benefits from its safe-haven nature and can benefit from a rate-cutting environment because it does not generate interest.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has almost moved sideways in the last few trading sessions, and every time corrections occur it always recovers quickly and maintains the main uptrend from the price channel.
The fact that gold is trading above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension provides the possibility of continued price increases with a fixed short-term target at 2,672 USD, which also means that the technical point of 2,672 USD is currently the closest resistance. at, then at 2,685USD.
There is no change in the technical structure with bullish conditions dominating the daily chart.
During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,645 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705
→Take Profit 1 2694
↨
→Take Profit 2 2689
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2615
→Take Profit 1 2626
↨
→Take Profit 2 2631
2024-10-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax - 3 clear legs down and today’s selling could not reach the lower bear trend line, which showed weakness by the bears. We are close enough to the daily 20ema to expect bulls scaling into longs and hoping for a retest of 19400/19500 or higher. 1h 20ema held today too but I expect it to be broken tomorrow. Below 19200, 19000 will come fast.
comment: Not happy with the currently drawn bear channel, since market has only 1 touch of the upper trend line. I expect sideways to up movement tomorrow until we touch it and there bears have to defend it for another try at 19200. I am neutral around 19300 and can’t see bears doing another strong leg down tomorrow.
current market cycle: bull trend (big trend line is currently at 19000, minor bull trend line got hit today)
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls bought the minor bull trend line that started 2024-09-11 and probably also the daily 20ema which is only 200 points lower. It was also the August high 19217. Bulls want to make 19200 support that was previously resistance before market broke strongly above it for a new ath. Bulls know that this is the first pullback in an otherwise very strong bull trend and high 1 are almost never working strongly for bears. Bulls see this as a pullback and scaling into longs, that is why we have tails below the prior 2 daily bars. Next they want to break above the 1h 20ema and retest today’s high 19428 - above that price comes 19500 probably quick because I expect many bears to have their stops there.
Invalidation is below 19190.
bear case: Bears had 3 legs down and today’s leg was weaker than before. Not good for them. They need to defend the 1h ema or risk a test of 19428. They do not have many arguments besides trading below the 1h ema. We are still above the daily ema and both bull trend lines. Either bears show strength tomorrow or bulls will take control again. Don’t. Short. The. Hole.
Invalidation is above 19430.
short term: Neutral around 19300. Bullish above 19430 and bearish only below big bear bars below 19200.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Shorting 1h 20ema again. The selling down to 19200 was weirdly strong.
2024-10-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Bulls now touched the bull trend line that started 2024-09-11 and market is making higher lows and lower highs. Means contraction and we will see a breakout tomorrow. I favor the bulls to retest 2700 or higher. Only bearish below 2645.
comment : Bears tried and failed. Bulls bought the bull trend line and above 2685 I don’t expect 2692 to hold and we go for 2700 or 2708, if not higher, again. There is always the possibility of me being wrong and patterns failing. So below 2660 the bears are favored to test 2646 and below that bulls have to defend the minor bull trend line which is close to the daily 20ema 2630-2640.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 2645 - 2700
bull case: Bulls in full control, still. Decent pullback on the daily chart, which was bought and bulls are free to trade higher again for the third leg up. Not more magic to it.
Invalidation is below 2545.
bear case: Bears tried multiple times but bulls bought it all. Next stage is giving up. Most bears have stops 2685 or latest 2695. If they somehow manage to get below 2660, they want a retest of 2646 and I really can’t see them breaking that price without touching 2700 again. If bears were strong, we would have seen it by now. Obviously an event can always happen but you can’t bet on it. Right now it’s technically still a contracting triangle and we could test 2665 again.
Invalidation is above 2685 and above 2695.
short term: Max bullishness if we stay above 2660
medium-long term: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 2665 after market showed it does not want to go lower at bar 2.
EURUSD: Dollar going stronger than EuroThe orange circle, shows the exact moment where, at the same time, ICEUS:DX1! crossed over CME:6E1! and the 200-sma was in the middle of this crossover.
The Dollar futures are gaining stregth while on the other hand, Euro futures are falling in price.
After the crossover, a strong bearish candle cross the support, the price remain in congestion with yesterday price closing at 1.10533.
Today the price is already below a support during early september and a resistance in the week after.
Indicators: Besides the 200sma. The RSI is projecting to go overbought or at least close, while DMI- is increasing the direction and ADX is confirming the trend strength.
GOLD soars, attention to the Middle East and dataAffected by tensions in the Middle East and falling US bond yields, demand for safe havens increased and gold prices achieved the target increase at 2,672 USD. Note to readers in the publication issue Before gold fake correction,. Gold prices are still hovering below recent record highs after the Fed Chairman hinted at smaller interest rate cuts in the future.
As fears of an all-out war in the Middle East increased after Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, gold prices rose due to safe-haven demand.
Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for Israel's actions against its Lebanese ally Hezbollah.
Salami, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Iran fired 200 missiles at Israel in an operation Tuesday night local time.
• White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan called Iran's missile attacks a “significant escalation,” but said they were ultimately “defeated and ineffective,” in part because the US military helped shoot down several incoming missiles.
• Sullivan emphasized that the attack will have consequences and that the United States is consulting with Israel on next steps or possible responses.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran made a big mistake and will pay the price.
This series of launches was the largest missile attack on Israel in Iran's history.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed that 90% of their missiles successfully hit targets in Israel. As of now, no casualties have been officially reported.
Israel's emergency services have lifted all restrictions and people in Tel Aviv have emerged from bomb shelters and returned to the streets.
Iran's president says he does not want war but will resolutely fight any threat from Israel.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is considered a safe haven asset in times of economic and political turmoil. Gold posted its best quarterly gain since 2020 last quarter after the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle in September with a 50 basis point cut.
Major banks expect gold to continue its record price increase in 2025, due to a resurgence of large capital flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and expectations of further interest rate cuts from major banks. major central banks, including the Federal Reserve.
Gold has risen nearly $577 year to date, or more than 28%, which would be the largest annual gain since 2010.
Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast in early 2025 to $2,900/ounce from $2,700/ounce, citing a gradual increase in ETF inflows as Western and Chinese interest rates cut and central banks increased strong buy.
Next, the market will pay attention to this week's US labor force data, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials, for further guidance on the US's policy stance.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold recovered and reached its target gain at $2,672 yesterday. Temporarily, the upward momentum of gold prices is also limited by the above technical level.
Although the upward momentum is limited, the uptrend still dominates the daily technical chart. Once the $2,672 level is broken, gold will be eligible to increase further with a target level at an all-time peak established. Previously at 2,685USD.
There is no possibility of any significant price decline, as long as gold remains within the price channel it will remain bullish in the short term. Price drops that do not break below the price channel should only be considered short-term corrections.
During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,645 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705
→Take Profit 1 2694
↨
→Take Profit 2 2689
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2615
→Take Profit 1 2626
↨
→Take Profit 2 2631
2024-10-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bears tried and sold off for decent points but the close was not bearish enough to hurt the bulls or make them nervous. Bears are only able to get spike selling going but no or bad follow through. Neutral going into tomorrow since most daily bear bars have big tails below them. Bulls are still in BTFD mode and we could easily test the highs again.
sp500 e-mini futures
bear case: Bears Need a lower low below the previous daily bar. Once they start getting that and make the market go sideways instead of up, they can start talking. Good for them is, that we barely move higher but we sure as shit are not moving lower either. Once bulls stop buying the highs, a decent pullback can easily get us to the daily ema down to 5730.
From my weekly update
comment: I promised an early breakout this week and we got one. Bears sold off decently today but the close was not strong enough. We almost touched the daily 20ema at 5725 and it’s more likely it will produce another pullback than breaking on the first or second try after such a strong rally the past 3 weeks.
current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge - minor bull wedge broke and we have the bigger one left)
key levels: 5700 - 5800
bull case : Bulls want to keep the market two sided and stay above 5700. They are still in BTFD mode and happily bought the first touch of the daily 20ema for 3 weeks. Their next target is to trade above the sell spike at 5815 because most bears will have their stop around that area.
Invalidation is below 5700.
bear case: Bears either keep it below 5780 or many will give up and will only try around 5800 again. The 50% pullback from today is around 5772 and bears stepped in again around that price. If bears can keep the 1h 20ema resistance, it would help their case a lot but they only have confirmation below 5733 and today they only got rejected big time below 5750. The selling was certainly strong enough to expect a second leg and a measured move could get us to 5670ish and near the lower bull wedge trend line.
Invalidation is above 5785.
short term: Neutral for now. I hope for a second leg but the 1h bars today were not good for the bears.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: US open was almost the high tick of the day. Happens not that often. Selling around the open was strong enough but most of the time you get an opening reversal. So overall very trick to sell this today while the spike was happening. Buying 5740 was profitable 4 times and the easier trade.
2024-10-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Bullish outside bar with big tails above and below. Still a strong day by the bulls but they could not get above last weeks high 72.39 which shows they are not that strong. 50% pb is around 68 so market is neutral there. We are at 70 and I expect it to be bigger resistance. Bulls want 73 to test the upper bear trend line.
comment: Bull spike was big enough to expect a second leg. Bears tested the lows enough from a technical perspective and I do think the pain trade is up. One measured move target is 74, which would be around the upper bear trend line and that is my preferred target for the bulls as of now.
current market cycle: trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart
key levels : 66 - 74
bull case: Bulls should not let it drop below 68.5. If they keep it above the 1h 20ema, their odds continue to be great for a second leg to 73 or higher. There is a small chance that the pullback already happened to 69.76 and we move higher from here. Will reevaluate tomorrow morning before EU open. Bulls are favored.
Invalidation is below 69.5.
bear case: Bears need to keep it a lower high below 72.4 or market will likely move to 73/74 with force. The 71.5 price is roughly the 50% pullback for the last bear leg and market continues to find sellers in that area. As long as that is the case, we will likely continue sideways between 66 - 72.
Invalidation is above 72.4.
short term: Bullish above 69.5, expecting a second leg up.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08 : Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: 67 was previous support and market got to 66.32 before we got a decent pullback. Could you have anticipated the spike? Maybe. The buying below 67 was strong enough to expect a second leg up and maybe retest 68. I’m happy for everyone who caught it.
Pay attention to Powell's statement, GOLD corrects and recoversOANDA:XAUUSD There were 2 consecutive sessions of price decline at the end of last month, mainly due to profit-taking activities without affecting the uptrend both fundamentally and technically.
From a monthly perspective, gold prices rose more than 6% in September, reaching a peak of $2,685.42 last Thursday, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point cut, stimulus measures China's preferences and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Today (Tuesday), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech at the National Association of Business Economics, which is expected to cause violent fluctuations in gold prices. Gold traders will pay close attention to Powell's comments for further information on the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy.
• If Powell signals a stronger interest rate cut, gold prices will certainly have to be pushed higher, because lower interest rates often reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, making them more attractive to investors.
• However, if Powell is cautious and signals a slower pace of interest rate cuts, gold may face downward pressure.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 36.7% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November.
In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, which has supported gold prices.
Over the weekend, Israel continued to attack Lebanon and claimed to have killed a senior figure of Hezbollah following the murder of the organization's leader Hassan Nasrallah. Iran, which backs the powerful rebel group, vowed to fight back and noted that Nasrallah's killing "will not go unanswered".
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold's downside correction, it recovered from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension and the current corrections still do not affect the main technical trend.
The short-term uptrend is noticeable because the price channel remains stable, and as long as gold remains in the price channel, its short-term trend and outlook are still bullish.
In addition, if gold breaks above the 2,645 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it will have room to increase further with the goal of returning to the 2,672 USD area. This means that $2,645 is the closest resistance currently.
During the day, the technical bullish outlook remains unchanged and notable levels are listed again as follows.
Support: 2,624 – 2,610 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,645 – 2,650USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2676 - 2674⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2780
→Take Profit 1 2669
↨
→Take Profit 2 2664
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2594 - 2596⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2590
→Take Profit 1 2601
↨
→Take Profit 2 2606
Jobs data week, GOLD corrects with steady trendOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded slightly this past weekend on Friday (September 27) as traders received the latest US data, but gold also hit a new all-time record this past week due to Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further.
Although the latest US consumer spending and inflation data reinforced expectations that the US central bank will cut interest rates further in the coming months, it also failed to provide clarity on the question. How deep will the Fed cut?
The US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed inflation rose just 0.1% in August, below market expectations. This data increases market confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue to implement easy monetary policy.
However, the data gap compared to the same period is not really large, this makes the market begin to divide into two directions; How much will the Fed cut interest rates in the upcoming FOMC period, 50bps or 25bps.
As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold becomes more attractive in an interest rate cutting or low interest rate environment, which has pushed gold prices up about 14% this quarter, the best quarter since 2016.
The latest consumer spending and inflation data from the US were the main economic indicators influencing the gold market last week. Inflationary pressures have eased, signs of growth in consumer spending suggest the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further for the rest of the year.
Currently, the market is expecting the Fed to cut another 75 basis points over the remainder of the year. This expectation has become the main driving force to help gold prices continue to increase this week, and looking into the future, this is still important support for gold's fundamental uptrend in the near future.
At the same time, global geopolitical tensions have added to market uncertainty. Uncertainties about the Middle East situation and the US presidential election have increased market demand for safe havens, further supporting gold prices.
This week will be a trading week with a lot of important macro data from the United States, the focus will be on non-farm employment data (NFP). It is expected that gold will have another turbulent trading week. market government.
Economic data to watch out for this week
Monday: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the NABE meeting
Tuesday: European CPI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Employment
Wednesday: ADP jobs report
Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims, ISM services PMI
Friday: Nonfarm payroll report
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold corrected from $2,672 as target resistance, it recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci extension support point noted by readers in the previous issue.
Although gold has corrected, structure and bullish conditions are still dominating the daily technical chart, with a short-term trend from the price channel and key support from the EMA21 and trend from the price channel.
However, the Relative Strength Index is falling from the top of the overbought zone, if it falls below the 80 level this could be seen as a signal for bearish space ahead.
With gold having increased for many days, it is very normal for a technical correction to occur. As long as gold remains in the price channel and above the EMA21, the trend and outlook are still bullish. In case gold is sold below 2,645 USD it will tend to decrease further to retest the 0.618% Fibonacci level without affecting the main uptrend.
Looking ahead, the trend and prospect of gold is technically bullish and the notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,645USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2696 - 2694⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2700
→Take Profit 1 2689
↨
→Take Profit 2 2684
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2620
→Take Profit 1 2631
↨
→Take Profit 2 2636
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Intraday Bearish Confirmation
Update for WTI Crude Oil.
Earlier, I share a very bearish setup on a daily.
Analyzing the intraday time frames today, I spotted
a strong bearish confirmation on an hourly.
Retesting a recently broken horizontal resistance,
the price dropped and violated a support line of a rising wedge pattern.
It is an important sign of strength of the sellers.
With a high probability, the price will drop at least to 67.15 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Fundamental factors have the main impact on the WTI trendTVC:USOIL ended up slightly higher last Friday but fell more than 3% for the week as markets gauged expectations for increased global supply and considered new stimulus measures from major countries in Asia, which import leading crude oil exporter.
- On one hand, OPEC+ plans to start increasing production in December, which has been particularly suppressive on oil prices and was the main negative factor for the oil market last week.
- On the other hand, the withdrawal of many stimulus policies by major powers, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further and the escalating conflict in the Middle East still provide some support for oil prices.
Central banks of major Asian countries cut reserve requirements and interest rates last Friday, and governments of major Asian countries are launching a final round of stimulus to boost growth. The economy returns to the target of about 5% this year.
Israel said it bombed Houthi rebel targets in Yemen on Sunday (September 29) and continued airstrikes in Lebanon, expanding its alliance with Iran in the region two days after killing the leader of Hezbollah. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah during the confrontation.
On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL Currently trading quite stable after recovering from the support level of 67.26USD. Note to readers in the previous issue. The recovery momentum is also being limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and the horizontal resistance level of 69.31USD.
However, looking at the overall technical picture, WTI crude oil is having more bearish conditions with the main trend from the price channel, pressure from EMA21 and weak recovery momentum when the RSI Strength Index turns down. price reduction signal.
In the near term, if WTI crude oil continues to be sold below the important technical level at 67.26USD it is likely to continue to decline more with a target level of 65.25USD. Even if WTI crude oil recovers further, it will still be limited by the EMA21, the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level and the upper edge of the price channel.
The bearish trend in WTI crude oil dominates the daily technical chart, and notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 67.26USD
Resistance: 68.74 – 69.31USD
USD & Gold Market Review September 30, 2024Analyze Macroeconomic News with USD Chart
The situation is that the Market is quite uncomfortable because it has been 2 weeks, but the USD still has no clear direction for itself. Looking at the event chart above, you can see that the negative psychological price mark is 101.5
- FOMC – interest rate cut by 50 points.
- Manufacturing PMI conflicts, but can still be assessed as bad.
- Shigeru Ishiba puts pressure on the USD, as JPY may get stronger.
- PCE is a bad personal inflation index.
==> A lot of big bad news below the 101.5 mark but the USD still moves sideways up and down, not moving strongly to the number 9x.xxx
==> Although the USD has lowered its closing price WEEKLY, it still causes discomfort because of bad news, such a decrease is not right. Is there a time when USD will suddenly turn over???
What's on this week???
- In early October, at dawn on October 1, 24, Powell spoke
- Friday has employment and NONFARM data
SPDR Gold Trust Analysis
Daily chart of Gold prices and Gold Reserves
- SPDR reduced reserves by 5.18 tons last Friday. However, just a 1-day reduction doesn't give much information, so that's all we know for now.
- The LONG SHORT index of retail traders shows that traders are afraid of SELLing and have the psychology of changing to BUY, so the Market's ability to Kill Sellers is reduced, meaning it is limited in pushing prices up further.
GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) stock chart vs. Gold price
The GLD chart is a stock active in the US session, it coincides with the gold price chart when the US stock session opens.
Looking at price behavior with volume on the GLD chart, we see that most of it is bearish behavior, like profit taking at the peak.
=> So in my opinion, the 246 price mark of GLD corresponds to the 2660-65 price range of the gold price, which is a psychological pivot for GLD (SPDR Gold Trust stock).
Analyze the Gold Future Market Volume chart
Price areas with converging Volume on the H4 chart include: 2660, 2625, 2580. Prices are often easily attracted and rotate around these price axes.
Currently on Chart H4 and H1, it can be seen that Gold has a bearish channel and is below the 2660 mark at the end of last week.
Conclude
Pay attention to the BULL BEAR 2660 position pivot price range
BULL faction
- The BULL side should only join the fight when the price has increased past 2660, and there is action to create price support above 2660.
- Or the price drops completely to 2625 to consider further recovery behavior of BULL.
BEAR faction
- Because the trend is still up, Sellers also need to be careful because there is not much Bear support.
- Currently, there is a downward price channel below the 2660 mark, so Sellers should embrace this current price channel to enter orders and minimize risks.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 30 - Oct 04]Last week, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise to a new peak at 2,685 USD/oz. However, after that, profit-taking pressure caused the international gold price to drop to 2,643 USD/oz and close the week at 2,658 USD/oz.
Gold prices continued to increase strongly this week mainly due to the FED cutting interest rates by 50 percentage points in last week's meeting. Notably, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index for August announced this week only increased by 2.2% over the same period last year, down from 2.5% in July. and is the lowest level since February 2021. PCE in August was close to the FED's target of 2%. This further strengthens expectations that the FED will continue to sharply cut interest rates in the near future.
In the current context, the FED's biggest concern is to revive the labor market, which has been stagnant in recent times. Next week, the US will announce non-agricultural employment (NFP) data and the unemployment rate for August. According to forecasts, NFP in August will only reach about 144,000 jobs and the unemployment rate may remain at low levels. 4.2%. If these data are as predicted, it will also increase expectations that the FED will continue to cut interest rates in the coming period, thereby positively affecting gold prices next week.
📌However, the problem that many investors and experts are concerned about right now is that the gold price is deep in the overbought zone, clearly shown through the MACD, RSI... Therefore, the possibility of pressure cannot be ruled out. Profit taking will increase again, causing gold prices to suffer another correction next week at the current high price range.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.645 – 2.624USD
Resistance: 2.685 – 2.672USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: 50% pullback is around 68.20 and we are at 68.18. I favor the bulls that they printed a higher low major trend reversal here and 67 will hold. The pattern on the 1h looks like market is forming a round bottom which could lead to a big cup & handle pattern. If they get above 69 on Monday, I do expect 71.5 quickly after an likely a hit of the bear trend line around 72.5. Below 66.8 bears are favored for retest of 65.
Quote from last week:
comment: Low effort comment last week. Deal with it. Bulls have formed a small pullback bull trend from the 64 low and bears selling below 67 are still trapped. Bears have not gotten one daily bar below the prior bar during the past 8 days. No reason to expect this to change all of a sudden.
comment: Bears finally came around last week and got a decent pullback to the 50% pullback from the recent bull leg. At 68.20 market is in total balance and I can’t be anything but neutral. I do think bulls are slightly favored and the 67 low could very well hold. Above 69 I favor the bulls, below 67 the bears.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 64-74
bull case: Bulls want this to be a higher low major trend reversal and 67 to hold. If they manage that, they can print up to 73 to test the bear trend line starting mid July. As of now, we are at the 50% pb and the pattern does not give you any confirmation. You have to wait for it or trade in the probability with a potentially higher reward if you take the long here. Bulls need to stay above 67 though.
Invalidation is below 67.
bear case: Bears printed decent bear bars Wednesday & Thursday and it’s reasonable to expect more sideways movement because they want to retest 65 or lower. Same argument for the bears as for the bulls, we are at the 50% pb and there is no confirmation for either side. Below 67 bulls could have their stops and would wait for 64/65 before longing this again.
Invalidation is above 69.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish near the 4h 20ema until it stops working. Take profits at new highs unless bulls show even bigger strength.
→ Last Sunday we traded 71 and now we are at 68.18. 4h ema buy worked on Monday but then it stopped on Wednesday. Meh outlook.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 69 and bearish below 67.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Bears channel is the main pattern right now but bulls are trying to test the upper trend line. There we will see if the bear trend is has another leg down or we move sideways. There is an argument that the spike below 69 was a trap and we continue inside a range 69 - 75/77.
current swing trade: None
chart update: removed broken bull trend lines