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#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: The big bull trend line from 2022-01 + 2022-07 is valid so far and forms a broad bull channel with the April + August low. We are at the top and until bulls can not break strongly above 5800, that price is resistance. Bears not doing enough, so I am neutral until one side gains momentum. Also continues inside nested bull wedges and the smallest will break out next week. Quote from last week: comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it. comment: Second week in a row where bears could not get a single daily bar below the previous daily low. Small pullback bull trend where we slowly grind higher. We are again at the highs of multiple patterns and betting on a breakout is a bad trade. You can literally buy any pullback and make money and until this changes, buy them. Just make sure to have tight stops at the highs. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5750 - 5850 bull case: Not much different to last week, since we are only 30 points higher. Bulls need a very strong daily bar above 5840 to make more traders believe in a breakout above. For now it’s very low probability they get it. Bulls are in full BTFD mode on every small dip and you should join them until they start making lower lows. Invalidation is below 5770. bear case: Bears Need a lower low below the previous daily bar. Once they start getting that and make the market go sideways instead of up, they can start talking. Good for them is, that we barely move higher but we sure as s*** are not moving lower either. Once bulls stop buying the highs, a decent pullback can easily get us to the daily ema down to 5730. Invalidation is above 5840. outlook last week: short term : Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout. → Last Sunday we traded 5762 and now we are at 5791. Neutral was very good since we barely moved. Not doing anything here is also very decent. short term: Neutral. Next breakout will come soon. I expect Monday/Tuesday since the small bull wedge has no more room to go and we are at the upper bull trend line for the bigger one. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know which side it will break out to. You don’t have a magic mirror either so just be prepared for the breakout and wait for it to happen. You never ever want to be the first in a trade. The odds are so stacked against you in the long run, you can not make a living being the first as a retail trader. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None chart update: None
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD fell as investors took profitsOANDA:XAUUSD fell in the trading session on Friday (September 27) due to pressure from profit-taking activities, but are on track to complete the strongest quarter increase in 8 years thanks to the prospect of lower interest rates globally, especially is the monetary policy pivot in the US. World gold prices have continuously set records in the first 4 trading sessions of this week. In particular, the all-time peak of spot gold price is 2,685.42 USD/oz recorded on Thursday session. In the third quarter, gold prices increased by 14%, the strongest increase in a quarter since the first quarter of 2016. This year, gold prices have increased 29%, the strongest increase in a year in the past 14 years. In the last session of the week, investors received positive data on inflation, data points that could provide additional reasons for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue cutting interest rates. A report from the US Department of Commerce only showed that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) - the Fed's favorite inflation measure - increased by 0.1% in August, consistent with economists' forecasts. out in a survey by Dow Jones news agency. Compared to the same period last year, PCE increased by 2.2%, lower than the forecast of 2.3%. After the report was published, the market slightly increased bets on the possibility of the Fed continuing to sharply reduce interest rates at its November meeting. According to data from the FedWatch Tool of the CME trading floor, traders are Betting on the possibility of more than 54% of the Fed choosing a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut in the next meeting, and nearly 46% betting on a 0.25 percentage point reduction. However, gold prices still had a falling session as many investors realized profits at record prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yesterday I promised you the breakout on Thursday and boi did we get one today. Problem for the bulls is, that they could not trap bears and they also could not close at the highs. That means, that the directional probability up or down is once again 50/50 (neutral). Most bull channels and wedges are still valid but if bears would have given up, we would not have seen 50-75% retracements of the leg up. Still bullish until bears print lower lows. dax futures comment: Big breakout, no more guessing about the direction. Now it’s a matter of how high can it get? It’s obviously a short squeeze and a stupid rally based on nothing but bear pain. Does that help you trading? No. There are several measured move targets and the next best one I have is 19600. Does not mean we have to get there but it also does not mean we can not hit 20000. Yes. 20000. Why are you still doubting this madness? current market cycle: broad bull channel key levels: 19000 - 19600 bull case: Bulls did it again. Most of the move happened during Globex and probably left many traders out of the market and had them chasing a second leg all day, which they got. Bulls did 4 clear legs up and that should be enough for now. Bulls kept buying the 15m 20ema all day and they also closed the EU and US session at their respective highs. You have absolutely zero reason to assume the highs are in. Look for pullbacks to get long until bulls clearly have no interest in higher prices. Invalidation is below 19250. bear case: Bears are in a world of pain. Every macro schmackro indicator points to a German recession and the auto industry is giving out warnings on earnings. Nothing makes sense from a “logical” standpoint. Welcome to trading. The sooner you realize this is a giant casino, the quicker you learn to let go and don’t care about this stuff. You have to trade your strategy and manage risk. Bears have nothing going for them and would need to get below 19250 before they have any case. Can this be a giant bull trap and we reverse strongly over the next 1-5 days? Everything is possible. Can you short this? Only if you want your account to be blown. Invalidation is above 19500. short term: Max bullishness if we stay above 19250. 19600 is my next best target before we can talk about the most insane of all targets, 20000. medium-long term: Can not hold any bearish outlook on this breakout. Need to see the next pullback to calculate new targets. current swing trade: None trade of the day: The buying during Globex did not stop and the 15m 20ema held all day. Not one pullback dropped below the previous one. Just a very strong bull trend day and you can buy anywhere and make money if you hold. Sounds easier than it is, I know.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yesterday I promised you the breakout on Thursday and boi did we get one today. Problem for the bulls is, that they could not trap bears and they also could not close at the highs. That means, that the directional probability up or down is once again 50/50 (neutral). Most bull channels and wedges are still valid but if bears would have given up, we would not have seen 50-75% retracements of the leg up. Still bullish until bears print lower lows. nasdaq e-mini futures comment : Current narrative is that hedge funds are continuing to sell tech. You don’t need to know that. You can see it on the chart. The bear gap got smaller but is still open while other markets making daily new ath. Given the current overall market environment, I doubt bears can keep this selling up and market below 20600. Bulls printed the 4th consecutive daily bull bar. At some point one side will give up and I heavily favor the bulls. Bulls had the strong Globex bull breakout but the selling spike from the US open was unexpected and a big surprise in strength. Bulls pulled back exactly to the 50% retracement afterwards. Key level for more upside or more downside. current market cycle: Most dominant pattern is the broad bull channel and the nested bull wedge with the August and September lows. key levels: 20000 - 21600 bull case: Bulls want the retest of 21215 and have all the arguments on their side, once they close the bear gap to 20670. We are in W3 of this current bull trend and the measured move from W1 is around 21000. If you only look at the daily chart, do you honestly go “I want to sell this”. Ofc not. You want to get long. Only below 20000 many bulls will begin to doubt the strength of this move up. Invalidation is below 20000. bear case: Bear gap is the last argument for the bears but it’s so weak, I expect a give up bar tomorrow to close this week max bullish and have a clear buy signal going into next week. Not saying bears can not have a miracle reversal like they did on 2024-07-11 or 2024-08-22. Invalidation is above 19670. short term: Max bullish if we stay above 20000. Targets above are 19700 and then 21000/21215. medium-long term: Outlook was wrong. Bulls are currently having another shot at retesting the peak bubble highs to make another one. If we get there, it could be the short of a decade opportunity. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day : Long during Globex obviously where market held above the 5m 20ema for 270 points. Selling the US open was obviously the best trade but difficult imo. Market rallied so hard, that strong of a reversal is not common.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
USDJPY recovers, although USD loses support from interest ratesAccording to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 62.2% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at its November 7 meeting, up from 37% a week ago, and a 37.8% chance of a cut. reduce interest rates by 25 basis points. In the future, if the market continues to maintain high probability expectations about the level of interest rate cuts of the US Dollar, the US Dollar will still be under pressure. This trading day is an important trading day when many key Fed officials speak with US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The content of these statements will affect the Dollar and the exchange rate. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut will then fundamentally affect USD/JPY. Looking at the daily chart, USDJPY is still on the recovery path and is achieving certain bullish conditions by breaking above the trend price channel and breaking above the 21-day moving average (EMA21). On the other hand, if USD/JPY continues to maintain price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level it will tend to continue to increase further towards the next Fibonacci level at 0.382% price point of 148.113. In addition, the Relative Strength Index rising above the 50 level also shows that there is still quite wide room for price increases ahead towards the 80 level. OANDA:USDJPY also forms a short-term trend price channel that is noticed by the price channel, and the short-term trend is leaning towards the bullish trend, and notable technical levels will be listed below. Support: 142,941 – 141,531 Resistance: 148.113
by Xayah_trading
GOLD steadies as Powell and Fed shake up trading day todayOANDA:XAUUSD is still trading quite stable in the early Asian session today (September 26) with both fundamental and technical uptrends being maintained. Currently, the gold price is around 2,660 USD/oz. This trading day, gold traders will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, which is expected to cause major fluctuations in gold prices. Traders await Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech and US PCE inflation data for more details on the direction of interest rate policy. Today (Thursday), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will pre-record a video to deliver the opening address of the New York Fed's 2024 Treasury Markets Meeting. Last Wednesday local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in a press conference that the 50 basis point rate cut “is not a new pace of rate cuts.” In addition to Powell, several key Fed officials spoke today (Thursday). Today (Thursday), Fed Governor Bowman will give a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy today (Thursday), New York Fed President Williams will give a speech; Fed Governor Barr will also speak at the same time. In terms of US economic data, on Friday the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. state. So this data needs to be closely watched and it is expected to bring significant volatility in the financial markets as a whole. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold's upward momentum is temporarily limited by the $2,672 level, the resistance point noted by readers in previous publications. However, the trend and technical structure remain unchanged, still leaning completely towards the uptrend with the price channel as the short-term trend and EMA21 as the most important support. However, the price increase is slowing down combined with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) being at the peak of the overbought area, showing that there is not much room for price increases and is consistent with the expectation of a downward adjustment without change the trend. In the immediate future, gold may adjust down to 2,645 USD, the price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension or more than the 0.618% Fibonacci level. It must be noted that a correction is different from a long-term trend, because the main trend of gold prices is bullish so open positions taking advantage of the possibility of a correction should also be closed in the short term. During the day, the uptrend with the expectation of a correction in gold prices will be noticed by the following levels. Support: 2,645 – 2,624USD Resistance: 2,672USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2691 - 2689⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2694 →Take Profit 1 2684 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2679 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2607 - 2609⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2603 →Take Profit 1 2614 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2619
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Unlock Trading Success with These Proven Chart PatternsTechnical Analysis of the Trade: The chart you provided highlights several patterns and levels, which I'll break down into different components for a clear analysis: 1. Market Structure: Ascending Channel: The price is moving within an upward-sloping channel, indicating that the market is in a bullish structure. An ascending channel like this represents a controlled trend higher with occasional corrections, providing potential buying opportunities on pullbacks to the lower boundary of the channel. Trade Implication: As long as price remains within this channel, the overall bias is bullish. A break below the channel, however, would signal a shift in momentum, suggesting a potential sell-off. 2. Bull Flags: Bull Flag 1 (Lower on the chart): This flag formed after a strong upward move, followed by a tight consolidation, which is a classic bullish continuation pattern. The breakout from this flag has already occurred, leading to a further upward push. Bull Flag 2 (Upper on the chart): Similar to the previous one, this bull flag formed after another sharp move up, indicating a potential continuation. The price is currently in the process of consolidating in this flag, which makes this an area of interest for a potential entry on a breakout. Trade Implication : Both flags suggest that the market is in a bullish phase. You could consider entering on a breakout above the upper bull flag, aiming for continuation to the upside. 3. Support/Resistance Zones: 1-Hour Liquidity Zones (LQZ): The chart shows two 1-hour liquidity zones: Upper LQZ (Around 2660): Price is consolidating just below this area. This zone could act as short-term resistance but would be a strong area for a breakout and continuation move higher. Lower LQZ (Around 2640): Should the price reject from the upper bull flag, this area is the next potential support zone where price could find liquidity and buyers might step back in. 4-Hour Liquidity Zone (Around 2622): This lower level is a major support area. If price retraces significantly, this could be a high-probability area for a reversal or continuation of the overall bullish trend. Trade Implication: If the price breaks above the 1-hour LQZ (Upper), it could trigger a bullish continuation. If rejected, you might look for a retracement back to the lower LQZ or even the 4-hour LQZ for a potential buying opportunity. 4. Pattern Confirmation & Confluences: Multi-Touch Confirmation: The price has interacted with significant levels multiple times (ascending channel, bull flags, and liquidity zones), strengthening the idea that these levels are respected by the market. This gives added confidence in the patterns you are trading off of, such as bull flags and support levels​​. Trinity Rule: Before entering a trade, ensure you have at least three confluences. In this case, potential confluences include: Price staying within the ascending channel. Bull flag formation at the current level. Proximity to key liquidity zones. With these three factors, you can confidently look for a continuation to the upside​​. 5. Price Action Signals: Correction vs. Impulse: If the market continues to move upwards impulsively, it supports the bullish continuation thesis. However, if it begins to correct, expect a pullback towards the lower boundaries of the liquidity zones or the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Trade Implication: If you see a sharp impulse (breakout of the upper bull flag), it could be a signal to enter long positions, while a slow corrective move might indicate waiting for a better entry lower. 6. Risk Management: Stop Placement: Place your stop loss below the lower boundary of the second bull flag or below the most recent swing low. For a safer trade, consider setting the stop just below the lower 1-hour LQZ (2640), where price may likely find support. Trade Implication: This gives the trade room to breathe while protecting against a deeper pullback. Take Profit: Based on the bullish pattern, your first take profit should be just above the upper 1-hour LQZ around 2660, with the next take profit near the next liquidity zone or potential resistance levels further up. 7. Probable Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: If price breaks above the upper 1-hour LQZ and the current bull flag, it could rally towards the next significant resistance level (around 2670-2680). Bearish Scenario : If price rejects from the upper bull flag and falls below the lower 1-hour LQZ, it could retrace to the 4-hour LQZ around 2620. This area would then offer a high-probability long entry. Summary of the Trade: Bias: Bullish (based on the ascending channel, bull flags, and liquidity zones). Entry Strategy: Enter on a breakout above the upper bull flag, with the price moving above 2660. Alternatively, if the price retraces, enter near the 2640 (lower 1-hour LQZ) or 2622 (4-hour LQZ). Stop Loss: Below the lower 1-hour LQZ (2640) or the recent swing low within the bull flag consolidation. Take Profit: Around 2670-2680 (based on the next potential resistance and liquidity zones).
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Adlercon333
2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Sideways. I won’t write much about this. Markets refuse to go lower but also not much higher. Best now is to wait for the clear breakout that will likely happen this week. I have zero bias to which direction it will go. I am not a fortune teller. Both sides have reasonable arguments, despite this being one of, if not the biggest asset bubble in history. comment: Market continues to contract. Many lines on my chart but all of them are valid until broken. Will see a bigger breakout tomorrow and or Friday. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19000 - 19200 bull case: Bulls are somewhat very slightly favored since we are making higher highs and higher lows but barely. Not much changed since last Thursday. We are near the ath and market refuses to go down. Structure on the daily chart has potential for a breakout above. Wait for it to happen or scalp small. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears try but once market begins to stall they are out. Their only objective is to keep the market below the ath or near it. Not much more to say until they print something below 19000 again. Everything below 18800 would be amazing for the bears and would probably end this bull move. Invalidation is above 19250. short term: Neutral and waiting for the breakout. Bulls want above 19250 (roughly 19100 on xetra) and bears below 18800. Everything in between is a dead zone where market is in balance. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 19000 or shorting near 19100. Bear trend line from 19195 was decent to short.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
Data and the risk of widespread conflict, GOLD finds new peaksAs tensions in the Middle East and US consumer confidence worsen, increasing gold's safe-haven appeal OANDA:XAUUSD , along with falling US Treasury bond yields and a weakening US Dollar, gold prices have once again renewed their all-time record high. In terms of data The Conference Board reported Tuesday that U.S. consumers' views of the economy worsened in September as concerns about jobs and business conditions grew, with the index Consumer confidence recorded its largest drop in more than three years. The Conference Board reported that the US consumer confidence index fell sharply to 98.7 in September from 105.6 in August, the largest monthly decline since August 2021. Survey of Dow Jones had forecast the number to be 104. Iran's President warned Israel to conduct heavy air strikes Israel announced that it launched a large-scale airstrike against "Hezbollah targets in Lebanon" on September 23, hitting more than 1,600 targets. Israel continued to conduct new air strikes in many places in Lebanon on September 24. According to Britain's Reuters, on September 23 local time, Iranian President Pezhiziyan said in New York, USA that Israel hopes to draw the Middle East into the conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah that has lasted nearly a year. past, by provoking Iran into "total war" and warning that its consequences would be "irreversible". Asked whether Iran would retaliate after Hamas Politburo leader Haniyeh was killed in an attack in the Iranian capital Tehran in late July, Pezeshizyan said: "They will respond in the appropriate way." at the appropriate time and place." As fighting between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and the Israeli military escalated sharply, Hezbollah has urged Iran to launch attacks on Israel in recent days. A direct Iranian attack on Israel would significantly further destabilize the region and could draw the United States into war. The US Federal Reserve's beginning to loosen monetary policy also pushed up gold prices because gold does not generate interest and lowering interest rates can reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Major investment banks expect gold's record price increase to continue through 2025 due to large capital inflows into gold ETFs and expectations of further interest rate cuts from central banks the world's largest. The basic picture has not changed as gold is still a comprehensively supported choice, both in terms of macro data, monetary policy and geopolitical developments that are increasingly new and complex. more complicated with the risk of spreading. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is having its fifth consecutive day of price increases, the next target level will be the $2,672 mark as the $2,645 price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension was quickly broken during the trading day. Yesterday. It is difficult to trade at the present time even though the main trend is still bullish with the price channel as the short-term trend. However, the Relative Strength Index has peaked in the overbought area, suggesting that there may not be much room left for the price to rise. In principle, the market will not move in a straight line, so during this time there is a basis to expect a short-term correction without changing the trend. The correction will likely be limited by support points from the 0.786% Fibonacci in the short term, and more so the 0.618% level. However, it must be reiterated that all technical and fundamental conditions are pointing in the same direction of price increase, and the uptrend with the expectation of short-term adjustment and of gold prices will be noticed by high levels. following technique. Support: 2,645 – 2,624USD Resistance: 2,672USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2691 - 2689⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2694 →Take Profit 1 2684 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2679 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2607 - 2609⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2603 →Take Profit 1 2614 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2619
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2024-09-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - Bull channel from my weekly update was not steep enough. 2700 next. Only look for longs. Can’t stop, won’t stop. comment: Gold broke above my drawn patterns, again. Unreal strength but not unexpected. In my weekly I wrote you should only look for longs. How high can this get? 2700 is almost a given at this point and big round numbers are always decent for a pullback or some stalling. Any long would need a stop 2645 as of now. Can wait for pullbacks to long this. last 10 days has 1 bear bar. Don’t try to be smarter than the market and short it. Although it’s becoming climactic and a pullback is expected, it can go further, so don’t pick tops. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 2645 - 2700 bull case: Bulls in full control. New low would be below 2645 and that’s far away. I look for pullbacks near ema to long it. Invalidation is below 2540. bear case: Bears want a pullback but will probably have to wait for 2700 now. Best they currently get is to stall the market and make it go sideways. I expect this around 2700 next. There is absolutely no reason to look for shorts on this. Invalidation is above 2710. short term: Max bullishness. medium-long term: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 2650. There were 4 chances where market clearly showed support around that price. Don’t long the first touch of such levels but above the second is good.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
GOLD is still looking for new peaks, PCE is the focus this weekAt the end of the last trading week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased above 2,620 USD/oz, continuing the existing upward momentum due to expectations that the US will continue to cut interest rates and increasing tensions in the Middle East. On Wednesday (September 18) local time, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut after concluding a two-day policy meeting in Washington. , lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.75%-5%. This is the first time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates since March 2020. Fed officials expect interest rates to fall to 4.4% by the end of 2024 and to 3.4% in 2025. In a statement, policymakers said they would consider “adjustments “addition” to interest rates based on “upcoming economic data.” They also noted that inflation "remains high" and that job growth has slowed. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in his post-FOMC press conference that the 50 basis point rate cut “is not a new pace of rate cuts.” Next week, several Fed officials will speak and it is expected that these statements will have a short-term market impact. • Next Monday, Bostic, the FOMC 2024 voting committee and Atlanta Fed President, will speak on the economic outlook. • Next Tuesday, FOMC 2026 voting committee member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will give a speech. • Next Thursday, Boston Fed President Collins will host a virtual meeting on central bank supervision and financial inclusion, and Fed Governor Coogler will attend. • Next Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will broadcast a video to open an event. • Next Thursday, the FOMC permanent voting committee and New York Fed President Williams will speak. Federal Reserve Governor Barr will speak next Thursday. • Next Friday, FOMC 2026 voting committee and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will have a conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Barr Next Friday, FOMC 2025 voting committee, Boston Fed President Collins and Fed Governor Coogler spoke. Next week's data focus will be on August's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Next Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for August, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. If the core PCE price index rises 0.3% month-on-month or above expectations, that could boost the dollar and put pressure on gold. On the other hand, weak data could put immediate pressure on the USD and support gold prices to rise further. Economic data to watch next week Monday: S&P Flash PMI Tuesday: US consumer confidence Wednesday: New home sales in the United States Thursday: Durable goods orders, third quarter GDP, weekly unemployment claims; US pending home sales Friday: US PCE Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to find new all-time highs with conditions tilting towards the upside. From the long-term price channel and the EMA21 line, they point towards an increase in price. Using Fibonacci extension to follow the trend, gold temporarily closes weekly below 0.618% and this is also the confluence point with the upper edge of the price channel. Once this level is broken, gold will tend to increase further towards the 2,645 USD area, the price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. The relative strength index RSI is pointing up with a large slope without showing signs of weakening from the overbought area, showing that there is still room for price growth ahead although not much. However, in the current trading environment, strong corrections can still occur quickly with the levels of 2,610 - 2,600 - 2,595USD being the closest current supports. Finally, gold's uptrend will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,610 – 2,600 – 2,595USD Resistance: 2,631 – 2,645USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2586 - 2588⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2582 →Take Profit 1 2593 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2598
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Geopolitical tensions escalate, GOLD is heading to a new peakOn the Asian market on Tuesday (September 24), spot gold continued its recovery trend. The current gold price is at around 2,634USD/ounce, close to the historic high reached the previous trading day. According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 48.6% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 51.4%. The market is pricing in a higher likelihood of a 50bps interest rate cut by the Fed in November, which weakens the US Dollar and supports gold prices in terms of correlation. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks stem from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, as well as U.S. political instability ahead of the November election and recession concerns. The economy will support the safe haven price of gold. Gold is known as a traditional safe haven whenever risks appear in the market, while currently political and economic instability appears. dense. Therefore, the basic trend of gold prices will still be upward. Israel launched airstrikes on so-called Hezbollah weapons sites in southern and eastern Lebanon on Monday, killing nearly 500 people and raising the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East. The Pentagon said Monday that the United States will send more troops to the Middle East as violence increases in the region, the Associated Press reported. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is supported by the trend from the short-term price channel and is currently continuing to recover after a slight correction yesterday. Currently, gold is moving towards the initial target increase noticed by readers in the weekly publication at 2,645USD which is the confluence of the edge on the price channels and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. At 2,645USD, it is expected that there will be certain adjustments but will not affect the main short-term trend of price increase. The relative strength index (RSI) is in the overbought area on the daily chart so there may not be much room left for the price to rise and is in line with expectations of a downward correction from the aforementioned confluence. Notable technical levels for the day are listed below. Support: 2,624 – 2,613 – 2,610 Resistance: 2,634 – 2,645USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2586 - 2588⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2582 →Take Profit 1 2593 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2598
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
China's policies, Middle East developments support oilWest Texas Intermediate TVC:USOIL reached over 72 USD/barrel supported by the Chinese Government's lightning-fast policy support for the economy and the situation in the Middle East is very tense. All of these geopolitical factors are driving oil prices even higher. In addition, natural conditions also threaten supply from the US, the world's largest crude oil producer, pushing oil prices up. China's massive stimulus policy Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced a series of stimulus measures at a press conference in Beijing today (Tuesday), a clear sign of the broadest effort yet by the Policymakers aim to achieve an annual growth target of around 5% this year. This is the largest stimulus measure since the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic. The measures announced today include: boosting bank lending to consumers and businesses and cutting the People's Bank of China's key short-term interest rate, which will support growth and energy demand in the world's largest oil importer. New developments in the Middle East Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon on Monday, Lebanese authorities said air strikes killed 492 people and forced tens of thousands to flee their homes. Oil prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts because this region (Lebanon) plays an important role in oil production. The attack risks bringing OPEC oil producer Iran, which backs Hezbollah, closer to a conflict with Israel and could trigger a wider war in the Middle East region, which in turn could continues to push for support for crude oil as supply is threatened. In particular, this conflict could completely involve Iran, a major member of OPEC, and could further disrupt crude oil supplies from the Middle East. Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is showing the initial conditions for a bull run with the RSI steeply upward sloping past 50, along with price activity moving upwards. the 21-day moving average which acted as resistance previously. However, WTI crude oil will need to temporarily break the 72.65 USD level to fully confirm the technical conditions for a bullish cycle with a short-term target level of around 74.39 USD. In the short term, the trend of WTI crude oil is more inclined towards price increases with notable positions listed as follows. Support: 70.90 – 70.49 – 69.37USD Resistance: 72.65 – 74.39USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
2024-09-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - 230 ticks surprise downside by the bears but bulls prevented the ugly daily bar, which leaves us with a neutral bear bar. Market closed above the daily ema and right at the bull trend line that was broken earlier. Selling was strong enough to expect a second leg but anything below 69 would surprise me. comment: Finally some decent selling again. Bears need to keep it below 71 to trap many late bulls buying too high. I have a measured move target around 67.2 but for now I doubt we get that low. Selling today was strong enough to expect a second leg. Given the fast move upwards, I would not look to buy this dip and wait until market has found a better bottom than 69.5. current market cycle: trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart key levels: 69.5 - 72 bull case : Bulls bought the lows but need to get above 70.60 to stay inside the bull channel. They would also need to close the current bear gap to 70.8ish to have better arguments to trade back up. They prevented the worst by closing above the daily ema and not letting the bear bar looking too good so market is pretty neutral going into tomorrow. Above 70.7 I favor the bulls for 71 or 72 again. Invalidation is below 69.5. bear case: Bears want a second leg down to 68 or lower. If they can generate strong follow through tomorrow, many bulls could cover their longs and the selling might accelerate. For now it’s low probability and more likely is more sideways movement and some oscillating around the daily ema. Invalidation is above 70.7. short term: Neutral between 70-71, bearish below 69.5 and bullish above 70.7. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade: None trade of the day : I was in denial of the strength of the selling. 2m ema was not touched and that could have been the trade of the month. Bar 41+42 formed a double top with the bars 2-4 and bar 43 was strong enough to flip market always in short. Very bad trading on my end to not take it.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2024-09-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Talk about pinning at a specific price. Most markets moved inside tight trading ranges between last week’s close and today’s open price. Was it bulls scaling into longs because we will rip higher (accumulation) or bears selling the highs because we crater soon (distribution)? Yes. We have learned nothing today and you can move on now. dax futures comment: Dax was the anomaly today and surprised me with the strong close. Market refused to go down while most others chopped in tight ranges. The 50% pb from Friday’s selling is 19030 and we closed at 19000. Anything above 19100 would be very bullish but I favor the bears to retest at least 18900 tomorrow. That outlook is somewhat low probability until bears can break outside of the current bull channel on the 15m tf. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18800 - 19200 bull case: Market refused to go down after the EU open reversal and we had a spike and channel bull trend day. As long as the bull channel is alive, bulls are fine. Their targets above are 19100 and then 19200 obviously. Given the atrocious pmi data earlier today, this rally feels off and is likely a squeeze. Does that help with trading? No. Can go much higher than anyone expects but right now anything above 19100 would surprise me, again. Invalidation is below 18970. bear case: Bears tried a couple of times today but were not strong enough to even retest the open price after we went above 18980 during the EU session. We are near the 50% pb and it’s possible that they come around tomorrow and try to get down to 18800 but as of now they don’t have good arguments. Their first target is to make the market go sideways and break out of the bull channel. Then they need a strong close below 19000. On the daily chart nothing changed after today. Invalidation is above 19100. short term: Neutral and bearish once the bull channel is broken for at least a retest of 18900. Bullish above 19100 for 19200 or higher. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 18850 was profitable on Friday and so today. Bar 29 was a perfect signal bar and 30 the entry bar. Stop 1 tick below the signal bar and that was good for 200+ points. I was too busy looking for shorts that I did not take many good long setups. Bad trading on my part.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Short
by priceactiontds
BOE may still warn of inflation, GBPUSD raises new targetThe British pound (GBP) will continue to outperform after the Bank of England signaled that it will maintain its restrained approach to interest rate cuts. Bank of England Governor Bailey said the central bank needs to be careful not to cut interest rates too quickly or too much. He also said that since the August meeting, inflationary pressures in the UK have continued to ease and overall economic performance is in line with expectations. The Bank of England certainly seems not to be on the Fed's side and will not send a signal to lift its inflation warning. The British pound will likely continue to perform well in the near term, based on fundamentals. On the daily chart, OANDA:GBPUSD in the main uptrend with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 level as the main support. The current position of GBP/USD above the 0.50% fibonacci extension shows that it could still continue to increase briefly in the near term with the 0.618% Fibonacci level, 1.33717 price point as the target. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up but has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still a bit of room for price growth ahead. As long as GBP/USD remains within the price channel, the main outlook will remain bullish and in the short term notable levels for a bullish outlook are listed below. Support: 1.33009 – 1.32301 Resistance: 1.33717
Long
by Xayah_trading
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Bulls got a clean breakout but they need follow through on Monday/Tuesday. The current channel fit’s nicely but we only know market is respecting it when we see a pullback. If this breakout is strong, bulls would not let the market fall below 2600 again. A weaker trend would pull back to the daily ema around 2600 before continuing. As long as we hold above the daily ema there is a very good chance we will see 2700 next. Small chance this trend is accelerating and breaking above the drawn channel and we would see 3 strong legs up which could lead to 2800. Quote from last week: comment: Finally the breakout above and the 2600 print. All bullish targets are now met for me so no interest in buying this high. I think the odds that bulls break above the wedge and start a new bull rally are very low and much more likely is a trap over the next 1-5 days and then a reversal down to at least 2540. That’s all I have to write about this right now. comment: I always think about wrong outlooks much more than about right ones. In this case, was the “no interest in buying this high“ the right call here and I would come to a yes in every scenario. Of course it was wrong and market made another 50 points but risk reward was so off, not taking it was the right move for me. Anyhow. Bulls confirmed another bullish structure and we have a bull wedge inside a very bullish channel upwards. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 2570 - 2700 bull case : Bulls had the fastest and most shallow two legged pullback there is on Tuesday/Wednesday and continued with max bullishness for 2650. By now every bear has given up and we will truly find out how high this can go over the next months. As of now my preferred pattern is the bull channel and since we are at the highs, bulls would need another strong bar like Friday to break above it. Can they get it? Absolutely. Am I betting on it? No. Invalidation is below 2570. bear case: No idea where and how strong they come around. Will most likely be more bulls taking profits rather than strong selling. Lower bull trend line is 50 points lower and I doubt we hit it on Monday. Buying 2640 is a bad trade and bears know it but I rather wait and see where we go. On the 1h tf we have not traded below it since Thursday’s Globex session. Currently very hard for bears to make money so make your life easier and look for longs. Invalidation is above 2660. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. I need to see bear strength before selling this. No interest in longs above 2600. → Last Sunday we traded 2610 and now we are at 2646. Meh outlook because bulls were much stronger and broke above again but I also advised against shorts until bears come around. They did not. short term: Neutral. I won’t be buying 2646. Need a pullback. medium-long term: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None. chart update: Added bull wedge.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Similar structure to dax. Nested bull wedges inside a big broad bull channel. The current bullish structure has a potential to lead to much much higher prices but I favor the trading range continuation more. The bull wedge will break over the next 2-3 days and we will likely have an answer on the next direction. Bulls need a strong break above 5800 and bears below 5670. Quote from last week: comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well. comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5670 - 5850 bull case: We are trading around the ath. Will the market find more buyers to push this even higher? We are inside nested bullish patterns and bulls are favored but buying near the ath without a better pullback is not the best trade you can do right now. On lower tf you can find reasonable longs but not on the daily. I’d rather wait for a breakout of the smaller wedge and see where the market wants to go. I do think bulls can print 5800 and some next week. Most outrages target I have on sp500 is 6144 but I will only address this once bulls close a weekly bar above 5800. Invalidation is below 5670. bear case: Bears want the breakout below the wedge and test the daily ema around previous support 5670. If they are strong, they could hit 5600 next week but as of now the bears have nothing to support this but hope. Best they can probably get is some sideways around 5760. Invalidation is above 5810. outlook last week: short term: Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get. → Last Sunday we traded 5629 and now we are at 5762. I leaned bearish but only if… If never came true since bears could not get a lower low all week. My read that above 5670 it’s a long, was good for 110. short term: Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None chart update: Only bullish pattern left and added an outrages measured move target.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 23 - Sep 27]This week, after opening at 2,579 USD/oz, the international gold price dropped to 2,546 USD/oz, but then continuously increased sharply beyond the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz to 2,625 USD/oz and closed the week. at 2,622 USD/oz. International gold prices increased sharply because the FED cut interest rates by up to 50 basis points and signaled that it would further cut interest rates by about 200 basis points in the next 2 years. FED Chairman Powell said the FED will not rush to sharply loosen monetary policy and noted that the FED is currently in the process of readjusting its monetary policy. Mr. Powell's comments show that the FED will not be too hasty in cutting interest rates, but will adjust monetary policy according to a specific roadmap. This may somewhat cause confusion among investors, causing them to take profits from gold investments that have yielded large profits, causing gold prices to adjust and accumulate in the short term. However, with the FED's roadmap to cut interest rates, gold prices are expected to continue to increase sharply in the near future. 📌Technical analysis indicators, such as MACD, RSI... are showing that gold price is in the overbought zone in the short term. However, the upward momentum of gold prices is still there, with no signs of reversal. The attractive area for gold prices seems to be the round block of 3,000 USD/oz, corresponding to the Fibo level of 261.8 calculated according to the Weekly chart. From a narrower perspective, looking at the H4 chart, in the immediate future, the gold price may continue to maintain its upward momentum to conquer the next resistance level around 2,690 - 2,700 USD/oz, before decreasing and adjusting again. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.595 – 2.600 – 2.610USD Resistance: 2.645 – 2.624USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2691 - 2689⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2695 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2519 - 2521⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2515
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD surpassed the 2,600 USD/oz markOANDA:XAUUSD increased sharply in the trading session on Friday (September 20), with spot gold prices officially surpassing the important barrier of 2,600 USD/oz for the first time in history. The possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continuing to cut interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East act as direct catalysts for this breakthrough in gold. At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market increased by 36.3 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of 1.4%, closing at 2,622.4 USD/oz. The Fed's move to lower interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday is "fueling" gold prices. This precious metal is a non-interest bearing asset, so it benefits in a falling interest rate environment. According to data from CME's FedWatch Tool, interest rate futures traders are betting on a 100% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in both its November and December meetings. In addition, this year, global investors are also actively buying gold to hedge against lingering geopolitical risks in the Middle East and some other places. The trend of net buying gold by central banks to diversify foreign exchange reserves away from the USD also contributed greatly to the increase in gold prices. Israel announced that it had killed a senior commander and important figures of Hezbollah in an airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, raising concerns about the risk of widespread war in the Middle East. However, US President Joe Biden still believes that the possibility of reaching a ceasefire agreement for the Gaza Strip is realistic. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased 26%, the largest increase in a year since 2010. Some analysts believe that this record increase in gold prices may soon turn into a correction state. The Dollar Index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six other major currencies, increased 0.12% on Friday, closing at 100.74 points. However, the index has decreased 0.37% this week and decreased nearly 4.8% in the past 3 months - according to data from MarketWatch.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading