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#202511 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Wild week where market reversed the huge selling on Friday and the daily bear bar looks more bullish than bearish. 23k is the battleground right now. If bears keep it a lower high, we could test further down but if they don’t, bulls could try and go for 24k. News certainly help in fueling this right now. current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000 key levels: 22000 - 24000 bull case: Above 23500 we could go for 24000 next week. This did not change since market went nowhere last week. Bulls defended the gap to 22000 and that is as bullish as it get’s. Plan for bulls is clear, keep market above the adjusted bull trend line around 22500 and make new ath above 23500, likely going for 24000. The channel looks still good, so trade it like it’s valid. Invalidation is below 22400 because it would invalidate the channel but only a print below 22000 would change the character of this market. bear case: Bears have shown decent selling pressure for 1200 points but that does not matter if they can not get below 22000 again. I do think it’s not unlikely that the bears have the argument for a head & shoulders, if 23000 proves to be bigger resistance now. I’d still favor the bulls for now but if we fail below 23200 for the next 3-6 days, the bull trend line would be broken and market could test lower, if overall sentiment shifts again after the expected short squeeze. Yes, I do keep in mind that German stocks are likely profiting big time from the spending spree Germany will likely go on but I am a price action daytrader. I read the chart and develop a thesis would could happen and if it does I put on risk. This front-running could very well reverse. Bears only have their confirmation below 22000 and for now market has tested 22147 - 22300 enough that bears gave up. Invalidation is above 23500. short term: Neutral around 22800/23200. Above 23200 we will retest 23500 and above that we likely try for 24000. 22400-22800 is the dead zone and only below 21900 bears have good reasons for lower prices. For now I can’t see any reason why this would fall below 22000 next week. medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202511 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Let’s take this from the weekly chart. Market has not dipped below the 2024-09 low but that was way too much to expect for bears. 14% down in 4 weeks straight selling is beyond unsustainable but it’s also very very unlikely that this was it and we just go up again. My thesis is a new bear trend until proven otherwise. How would bulls do that? Anything above 21100 would be too high for a retracement in a strong bear trend and it would likely fit a trading range narrative. Trading range would mean 2024-04 low at 17900 to 2024-12 ath at 22450. Bear trend is drawn on the chart and would lead to at least the 50% retracement of this bull trend since 2022, down to around 17500. When will we know? If market retraces below or to the 50% around 20400 and strongly reverses down again, I see my theory confirmed so far. For next week I can’t see anything but a big short squeeze to trap late bears. 19140 was such a weird place to reverse and I can only see this already being strong bulls buying the dip and trapping everyone who thought we were going for 19000. current market cycle: strong bear trend but pullback expected key levels: 19140 - 20500 bull case: Bulls have only going for them that this selling is beyond overdone and climactic and Friday' was a very strong bullish day on huge volume. My bear target was 19600 and we almost printed 19000. 20000 is the first obvious target for a pullback but I think a 50% retracement to 20700 is doable, since the daily 20ema is also at 20400. I expect the market to fight the real battle for either the new bear trend or a multi-year trading range around 20000. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: Bears showed more strength and got below my measured move target of 19600 but failed above the 2024-09 low at 18867. Last time bears made this much money was 2024-07 where we corrected for 16.91% to then rally 25.59% higher over the next 19 weeks. Hand on heart I do think it’s much more likely we will see that pattern from 2024 repeated than a new bear trend. A trading range 19000 - 22450 is much more likely than going down to 16000. As of now. Can this change if the US really goes into a bigger recession? Of course but for now this is front-running the possible risk because we got up so much the past years that funds really need to secure some profits this time. For next week I have absolutely nothing for the bears. This selling is overdone and market is so much more likely to squeeze late bears, that I won’t look for any short trades until we see 20000 or higher. Invalidation is above 21100. short term: Heavy bullish bias for 20000 and likely 20400. Above 20500 air would get real thin again, if this was the start of a bear market. For now I think the pattern from 2024-07 is more likely to repeat than the bear trend as drawn on the chart. medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We don’t know if we have printed the W1 of the new bear trend or repeat the pattern from 2024, where we sold of very strong to reverse even more strongly and make new all time highs. Market needs a bounce and around 20000/20500 we will see the real battle for the next weeks. current swing trade: None chart update: Updated the possible bear trend and added a bullish alternative to show what we did in 2024. For now the bullish path is more likely.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202511 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Weekly chart. First green week after 7 consecutive bear weeks. Astonishing eh. Weak bull bar anyhow and sideways is more likely than anything above 70, for now at least. We have now seen higher highs but the 2024-04 highs were not broken and market failed below 80. So the multi-year contraction is still valid. Same for the downside. Lows were not broken for now and bears would need to get below the 2024-09 low to make new ones. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 65 - 70 bull case: Bulls have nothing. Still. They need a daily close above 70 to start having arguments again. For now they just stopped new lows after 7 weeks and any bounce is likely to get sold again. Daily 20ema at 68.4 is their next target and above that they could try for 70. Since we made higher lows and lower highs last week, we are obviously in a triangle, which could break on Monday. Invalidation is below 64. bear case: Bears needed to take profits and reduce risk at these lows that were previous support. For now I see the chance of another leg down as very low so I don’t have many arguments for the bears. If we close strongly below 65, it opens up 64, then 62 but we have so many previous lows (support) down here, it’s just not a good short trade. Invalidation is above 71. short term: Neutral again. No shorts for me down here. Want to see either 70 or 63 next week. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion. current swing trade: None chart update: Minor adjustments to the trend lines.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD nears $3,000 as trade tensions escalateOANDA:XAUUSD have surged to an all-time high, just shy of the key $3,000-an-ounce mark as global trade tensions and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut push them closer to a record high. They have risen nearly 14% this year, following a 27% gain in 2024. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened to impose 200% tariffs on wine, champagne and other alcoholic beverages from France and the rest of the European Union, marking a further escalation in global trade tensions. Trump tweeted Thursday that he would impose import tariffs if the European Union continues to impose duties on U.S. whiskey exports. The EU's move is in retaliation for Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs that took effect on Wednesday. Trump also had harsher words for the European Union. The EU has been one of the United States' closest allies for decades. Trump posted on his Truth Social platform: "The European Union is one of the most hostile and abusive tax and tariff organizations in the world, and their sole purpose is to take advantage of the United States. They just put a disgusting 50% tariff on whiskey. If this tariff is not removed immediately, the United States will soon put a 200% tariff on all wine, champagne and spirits coming from France and other EU member states. This will be a tremendous boon to the American wine and champagne industry." Trump’s trade policy changes have boosted the price of gold, an asset favored by investors during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. In addition, the Wall Street Journal reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin had rejected plans for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, which also contributed to the safe-haven buying of gold. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia will not agree to an immediate end to fighting in Ukraine and called for further discussions on ending the war permanently, The Wall Street Journal reported. Moscow’s military is now advancing rapidly, aiming to push Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region. Putin said any ceasefire at this stage would be in Ukraine’s interests because Russia is winning on the battlefield and there are many issues that need to be resolved before a ceasefire can be reached. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, said its holdings rose to 907.82 tonnes on February 25, the highest since August 2023. Meanwhile, data from China's central bank showed China bought gold for a fourth straight month in February. Over the weekend, data on US consumer confidence and inflation expectations will be less in the spotlight than tariffs and geopolitical headlines. For economic data, readers can find more details in the signature section through brief comments during the day. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is down slightly year-to-date after approaching the important raw price level of $3,000. The current correction is also not significant as the uptrend will still dominate the chart with the price channel as the nearest support at present, the main support is noted by the EMA21 and the other support is the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet risen above the overbought zone, indicating that there is still room for upside. Intraday, as long as gold remains above the price channel and the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level, its main short-term outlook remains bullish. Even if gold falls below the aforementioned support area, it remains in an overall bullish trend, so the current declines should be viewed as a short-term correction or a buying opportunity. Next, the target will be the full price point of $3,000 in the short term and more at the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level. The notable positions for the day are listed as follows. Support: $2,977 – $2,956 Resistance: $3,000 – $3,021 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3037 - 3035⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3041 →Take Profit 1 3029 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3023 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2949 - 2951⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2957 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2963
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2025-03-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls can’t get anything going that’s not sold heavily. I can’t see this not closing at the lows tomorrow. The target is obvious, 2024-09 low at 18867. The tight bear channel started at 22245. This selling without any meaningful bounce is so weird and overdone, it’s hard to grasp. We went from melting higher on literally any news to not being able to close green on a week where news were all in line or not bad. I can not take this as a W1 of a new bear market where my next target is likely 18000 for W3 and 16000 for W5. current market cycle: trading range - only daily closes below 20000 mark the end of this bull trend key levels: 19000 - 21000 bull case: Easy as pie to write. Bulls need anything above 19800. Anything below is much more likely to that we sell hard again, since it’s not stopping. Bulls can not trap any bears and are quick to give up on any selling pressure. Best for bulls would be to stay above today’s low and make another higher low above 19165. Weekly close above 19500 would surprise me big time. Invalidation is below 19140. bear case: Bears are really overdoing it. A 5-10% up move is around the corner I think. Next target below is the September 2024 low at 18867, which aligns somewhat with the current bear channel. The channel is the dominant feature right now, so trade it. My base assumption for tomorrow is another try by the bulls and heavy selling into the weekend. Would not be surprised if we close the week below 19000. Invalidation is above 19600 but bulls need something above 19800 if they want further upside. 19600 is just the break of the bear channel. short term: Can only be neutral for now. Having a bullish bias but bulls are not doing enough for now. I wait. 20k is my first target. Nothing changed. Selling down here is not for me. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Will update this on the weekend. Bear trend has started. trade of the day: Yeah. Globex printed the high of the day early and market could not get above it or 19600 for that matter. I thought a trading range day was much more likely and we had decent two-sided trading but bulls are running for the exists and just want out. 6 x 1h bars that struggled to stay above 19550 was the cue that we likely test down again.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
ES futures trade setup 13/03/'25Hello, In today's trade analysis, I will review potential setups for this trading day. Since the overall trend is bearish, I favor short positions over long positions. I have identified two important zones on the 4H timeframe that align well with the 1H timeframe. 4H supply zone: 5,643 - 5,630 4H demand zone: 5,577 - 5,558 We've seen both false breakouts and breakdowns in recent days, indicating choppy market conditions. My plan is to either go short in the upper 4H supply zone or short a breakdown of the 4H demand zone. For the latter, I'll wait for the candle to close below the zone and set my entry on a retest.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by YungZkittlez
GOLD hits Bullish targets, heading for all-time highAs tariff uncertainty pushed money into safe havens, cooling US inflation kept market expectations of a Fed rate cut intact and optimism over a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine cooled, OANDA:XAUUSD surged and broke out of its recent sideways consolidation trading range. OANDA:XAUUSD surged past the $2,942/oz target on safe-haven demand. Weaker US CPI data also supported expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, pushing gold higher. The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-on-year in February, slightly below the 2.9% expected and down from January's 3.0%. The year-on-year increase in the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, eased to 3.1% from January's 3.3%. Recent news of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine also cooled earlier optimism. British news agency Reuters reported on Wednesday that Russian officials were skeptical about the U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that the Kremlin was still waiting for the United States to announce its proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine. The Kremlin needs to hear the results of the U.S.-Ukraine talks before commenting on whether Russia can accept the ceasefire. Commenting on a ceasefire proposal that has been accepted by both U.S. and Ukrainian officials, an influential Russian lawmaker insisted on Wednesday that any deal must be reached on Russian terms, not U.S. A senior Russian source said President Vladimir Putin would be unlikely to agree to a ceasefire proposal without finalizing the terms and receiving some guarantees. Ukraine accepted a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia on Tuesday in exchange for the Trump administration resuming suspended military aid and intelligence sharing. The deal was announced by US and Ukrainian officials after eight hours of talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. Trump said US officials would meet with their Russian counterparts on Wednesday and he could meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. The World Gold Council (WGC) revealed that central banks continued to buy gold. The People's Bank of China and the National Bank of Poland added 10 tonnes and 29 tonnes of gold, respectively, in the first two months of 2025. Traders will next keep a close eye on the release of the US producer price index (PPI) for February, initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. OANDA:XAUUSD technical outlook analysis On the daily chart, as of the time of writing, gold has achieved all the bullish targets noted by readers in the weekly publication, along with all the conditions for the possibility of a price increase when there is no more resistance ahead other than the all-time high. The short-term price channel is noted as the trend at the moment, along with the Relative Strength Index RSI maintaining above 50, surpassing 61, showing that the bullish momentum dominates the market and there is still a lot of room for price increase ahead because it is still quite far from reaching the overbought area. The most notable supports now are the $2,929 level in the short term, followed by the EMA21 area. Overall, the uptrend is dominating on the daily chart, with notable price levels listed below. Support: $2,929 – $2,915 Resistance: $2,956 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2761 - 2974⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2980 →Take Profit 1 2968 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2962 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2904 - 2906⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2900 →Take Profit 1 2912 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2918
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
What Are Financial Derivatives and How to Trade Them?What Are Financial Derivatives and How to Trade Them? Financial derivatives are powerful instruments used by traders to speculate on market movements or manage risk. From futures to CFDs, derivatives offer potential opportunities across global markets. This article examines “What is a derivative in finance?”, delving into the main types of derivatives, how they function, and key considerations for traders. What Are Derivatives? A financial derivative is a contract with its value tied to the performance of an underlying asset. These assets can include stocks, commodities, currencies, ETFs, or market indices. Instead of buying the asset itself, traders and investors use derivatives to speculate on price movements or manage financial risk. Fundamentally, derivatives are contracts made between two parties. They allow one side to take advantage of changes in the asset's price, whether it rises or falls. For example, a futures contract locks in a price for buying or selling an asset on a specific date, while a contract for difference (CFD) helps traders speculate on the price of an asset without owning it. The flexibility of derivatives is what makes them valuable. They can hedge against potential losses, potentially amplify returns through leverage, or provide access to otherwise difficult-to-trade markets. Derivatives are traded either on regulated exchanges or through over-the-counter (OTC) markets, each with distinct benefits and risks. Leverage is a very common feature in derivative trading, enabling traders to control larger positions with less capital. However, it’s worth remembering that while this amplifies potential returns, it equally increases the risk of losses. These instruments play a pivotal role in modern finance, offering tools to navigate market volatility or target specific investment goals. However, their complexity means they require careful understanding and strategic use to potentially avoid unintended risks. Key Types of Financial Derivatives There are various types of derivatives, each tailored to different trading strategies and financial needs. Understanding the main type of derivative can help traders navigate their unique features and applications. Below are the most common examples of derivatives: Futures Contracts Futures involve a contract to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a specific future date. These contracts are standardised and traded on exchanges, making them transparent and widely accessible. Futures are commonly used in commodities markets—like oil or wheat—but also extend to indices and currencies. Traders commonly utilise this type of derivative to potentially manage risks associated with price fluctuations or to speculate on potential market movements. Forward Contracts A forward contract is a financial agreement in which two parties commit to buying or selling an asset at a predetermined price on a specified future date. Unlike standardised futures contracts, forward contracts are customizable and traded privately, typically over-the-counter (OTC). These contracts are commonly used for hedging or speculating on price movements of assets such as commodities, currencies, or financial instruments. Swaps Swaps are customised contracts, typically traded over-the-counter (OTC). The most common types are interest rate swaps, where two parties agree to exchange streams of interest payments based on a specified notional amount over a set period, and currency swaps, which involve the exchange of principal and interest payments in different currencies. Swaps are primarily used by institutions to manage long-term exposure to interest rates or currency risks. 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For example, a trader might use futures contracts to hedge against potential price movements in commodities or indices. Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives OTC derivatives, including swaps and forwards and contracts for difference, are negotiated directly between two parties. These contracts are highly customisable but may carry more counterparty risk, as they aren't cleared through a central exchange. Institutions often use OTC derivatives for tailored solutions, such as managing interest rate fluctuations. Strategies for Trading Derivatives Traders typically employ derivatives for speculation or hedging. Speculation involves taking positions based on anticipated market movements, such as buying a CFD if prices are expected to rise. Hedging, on the other hand, can potentially mitigate losses in an existing portfolio by offsetting potential risks, like using currency swaps to protect against foreign exchange volatility. Risk management plays a crucial role when trading derivatives. Understanding the underlying asset, monitoring market conditions, and using appropriate position sizes are vital to navigating their complexity. CFD Trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are among the most accessible derivative products for retail traders. They allow for speculation on price movements across a wide range of markets, including stocks, commodities, currencies, and indices, without owning the underlying asset. This flexibility makes CFDs an appealing option for individuals looking to diversify their strategies and explore global markets. How CFDs Work CFDs represent an agreement between the trader and the broker to exchange the difference in an asset's price between the opening and closing of a trade. If the price moves in the trader’s favour, the broker pays the difference; if it moves against them, the trader covers the loss. This structure is straightforward, allowing retail traders to trade in both rising and falling markets. Why Retail Traders Use CFDs Retail traders often gravitate towards CFDs due to their accessibility and unique features. CFDs allow leverage trading. By depositing a smaller margin, traders can gain exposure to much larger positions, potentially amplifying returns. However, you should remember that this comes with heightened risk, as losses are also magnified. Markets and Opportunities CFDs offer exposure to an extensive range of markets, including stocks, forex pairs, commodities, and popular indices like the S&P 500. Retail traders particularly appreciate the ability to trade these markets with minimal upfront capital, as well as the availability of 24/5 trading for many instruments. CFDs also enable traders to access international markets they might otherwise find difficult to trade, such as Asian or European indices. Traders can explore a variety of CFDs with FXOpen. Considerations for CFD Trading While CFDs offer potential opportunities, traders must approach them cautiously. Leverage and high market volatility can lead to significant losses. Effective risk management in derivatives, meaning using stop-loss orders or limiting position sizes, can help traders potentially navigate these risks. Additionally, costs like spreads, commissions, and overnight fees can add up, so understanding the total cost structure is crucial. Key Considerations When Trading Derivatives Trading derivatives requires careful analysis and a clear understanding of the associated risks and potential opportunities. Understanding the Underlying Asset The value of a derivative depends entirely on its underlying asset, whether it’s a stock, commodity, currency, or index. Analysing the asset’s price behaviour, market trends, and potential volatility is crucial to identifying potential opportunities and risks. Choosing the Right Derivative Product Different derivatives serve different purposes. Futures might suit traders looking for exposure to commodities or indices, while CFDs provide accessible and potential opportunities for those seeking short-term price movements. Matching the derivative to your strategy is vital. Managing Risk Effectively Risk management plays a significant role in trading derivatives. Leverage can amplify both returns and losses, so traders often set clear limits on position sizes and overall exposure. Stop-loss orders and diversification are common ways to potentially reduce the impact of adverse market moves. Understanding Costs Trading derivatives involves costs like spreads, commissions, and potential overnight financing fees. These can eat into potential returns, especially for high-frequency or leveraged trades. A clear understanding of these expenses may help traders evaluate the effectiveness of their strategies. Monitoring Market Conditions Derivatives are sensitive to their underlying market changes, from geopolitical events to macroeconomic data. In stock derivatives, this might be company earning reports or sudden shifts in management. Staying informed helps traders adapt to shifting conditions and avoid being caught off guard by sudden price swings. The Bottom Line Financial derivatives are versatile tools for trading and hedging, offering potential opportunities to access global markets and diversify strategies. While their complexity demands a solid understanding, they can unlock significant potential for informed traders. Ready to explore derivatives trading? Open an FXOpen account today to trade CFDs on more than 700 assets with competitive costs, fast execution, and advanced trading tools. Good luck! FAQ What Is a Derivative? The derivatives definition refers to a financial contract whose value is based on the performance of an underlying asset, such as stocks, commodities, currencies, or indices. Derivatives are financial instruments used to hedge risk, speculate on price movements, or access specific markets. Examples include futures, forwards, swaps, and contracts for difference (CFDs). What Are the 4 Main Derivatives? The primary categories of derivatives are futures, forwards, swaps, and contracts for difference (CFDs). Futures are commonly traded on exchanges, while forwards, swaps and CFDs are usually traded over-the-counter (OTC). Each serves different purposes, from risk management to speculative trading. What Is the Derivatives Market? The derivatives market is where financial derivatives are bought and sold. It includes regulated exchanges, like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and OTC markets where customised contracts are negotiated directly between parties. This market supports hedging, speculation, and risk transfer across global financial systems. What Is the Difference Between Derivatives and Equities? Equities signify ownership in a company, typically in the form of stock shares. Derivatives, on the other hand, are contracts that derive their value from the performance of an underlying asset, which can include equities. Unlike equities, derivatives do not confer ownership. Is an ETF a Derivative? No, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) is not a derivative. It is a fund that tracks a basket of assets, such as stocks or bonds, and trades like a stock. However, ETFs can use derivatives, such as futures, to achieve their investment objectives. Is the S&P 500 a Derivative? No, the S&P 500 is not a derivative. It is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 large companies listed in the US. Derivatives, like futures, can be created based on the S&P 500’s performance. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYMEX:CLJ2025Education
by FXOpen
1
GOLD recovers and stays above $2,900, pay attention to CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded, driven mainly by safe-haven flows as trade war concerns dampened market risk sentiment and markets focused on US inflation data. TVC:DXY hit a four-month low, making gold more attractive. Meanwhile, the main event of the week is the US CPI report today (March 12), which could cause major market moves. Positive data could lead to a sharp sell-off in gold, while weak data could give the green light for further gains in gold. CPI is expected to have risen 0.3% in February, according to a Reuters poll. The New York Federal Reserve's latest consumer expectations survey forecasts inflation at 3.1% over the next year, up slightly from 3% in January. Markets are now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, in terms of trend, gold is still in the accumulation phase after recovering from the $2,880 level noted by readers in the previous editions and the break above the $2,900 level provides conditions for further testing of the $2,929 level in the short term. For now, gold is still trading around the EMA21 and is still in a consolidation state, but in terms of technical conditions, it is more likely to increase in price. With the price channel as a short-term trend, and the RSI activity above 50, quite far from the overbought zone, it shows that the bullish momentum is still ahead. However, the technical chart still needs a strong impact to break the current accumulation structure. And during the day, the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 - 2,880 USD Resistance: 2,929 - 2,942 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2961 - 2959⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2965 →Take Profit 1 2953 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2947 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2899 - 2901⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2895 →Take Profit 1 2907 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2913
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Party's OverDow Futures daily forming a downwards channel with price targets potentially down to 34k and 31k. These drops would be about 20-40% which is considered a true market crash. The falling wedge pattern plays out until potentially June of 2027, but wedges from the top of the range are dangerous as they can turn into bull traps. - Economic fundamentals have been disconnected from the financial system for some time but as the underlying economy begins to falter (ex. unemployment wave) markets begin to price in data such as falling retail sales. - President Trump is going through with mass layoffs in the Federal Government which creates unemployment as the private sector has been going through layoffs and has halted actual new hiring since 2023. - As more traders have become accustomed to "bad news is good news," they will most likely be wiped out trying to buy dips or chase false breakouts doing what they have always done. - Tariffs regionalize trade which make global economies and supply chains less interconnected. A global economy that is also very levered up on USD denominated debt needs dollar liquidity to continue to function. By regionalizing trade that liquidity is starved which can lead to financial problems on a global scale if not handled carefully. - Markets are likely to price in these risks over the next 2-3 months leading asset prices and interest rates lower. Expect individual companies to do well at times but then rotate to others while the Dow index itself falls. - Even if the Dow were to play out the wedge during 2026, without significant improvements to the global financial system expect that move to be a bull trap or a best lead to minimal gains without a new wave of monetary inflation.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by CrashoutCapital
2025-03-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears are clearly in control and we have two bear trend lines above us. One around 22600 and the bigger one around 23000. Bulls need to claim 22900 and bears obviously want 22k. Absolutely no idea what we get first. Buying volume increased big time at previous low around 22300 but overall market sentiment has to reverse. I can not see dax rallying 2%+ if us indexes stay at the lows. 22400 is the neutral price, so don’t trade it. current market cycle: trading range - bull trend clearly broken now key levels: 22000 - 24000 bull case: Bulls need to get back above 22800 if they want further upside. For now they have buy new lows and scalp. For bulls to reverse this, they would need to print a clear higher low and trapping late bears. Market can not rally, if we make lower lows the whole time. Not much for bulls here and it could be because they expect 22k to be hit and want to buy that. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears want to finally print 22000 again. last time we did was early February. Problem for them is, we are at huge previous support. Should you bet that the breakout will happen? Never. Wait for it to happen and join along and wait for a bounce to sell higher. Any bounce has to stay below 22600 and then we can continue down. Selling below 22400 is bad, no matter what. Bears remain in control until the current bear channel is broken. Invalidation is above 23600. short term: Neutral around 22400. Bearish above 22500 if we stall too much and bears come around again. If bulls stay above 22300/22400 and print a lower high, I will join them if us markets do the same. I expect a huge bounce soon. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying during the Globex session was fun and then selling above 22800 again, since it was resistance from yesterday. Where should you have sold? Market hit 22835 and then only printed lower highs for 7 15m bars. That was certainly strong enough to cover longs.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD recovers to trade around $2,900, still has a lot of supportOANDA:XAUUSD has stabilized and recovered after falling more than $20 yesterday and is now trading around $2,900. Earlier, investor concerns about a US economic slowdown caused a broad decline in stocks and commodities, dragging down precious metals, especially gold. OANDA:XAUUSD held above $2,880 after falling nearly 1% on Monday. US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that the US economy could get worse before it gets better and that he was adjusting trade policy through tariffs, fueling market concerns about a possible economic recession. When broader financial markets take a hit, investors may sell gold to cover losses in other assets, causing the price of gold to fall in the short term. Gold prices have rallied 10% so far this year, hitting a new high. The rally has been fueled by uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s policies, central bank purchases of gold, and expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates further. Lower borrowing costs typically benefit non-yielding assets like gold. While rising gold prices have dented physical demand in some major Asian economies, inflows into gold ETFs have remained steady. Holdings of gold ETFs hit their highest level since December 2023 as of last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Investors had begun to reduce their exposure to gold ahead of Monday’s sharp market sell-off. Hedge funds’ long gold positions fell to their lowest in nine weeks, according to the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). While this correction appears to be broad-based, the underlying forces will still be a solid support for gold's upside potential, from the geopolitical landscape to Trump's policies creating global trade conflicts to expectations of Fed rate cuts. Overall, gold still has a lot of support. Markets focus on US inflation data and Fed policy expectations Investors are now focused on upcoming US inflation data to gauge whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) – due on Wednesday US Producer Price Index (PPI) – due on Thursday Traders are now fully pricing in the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that it is not yet known whether the Trump administration’s tariff policies will lead to higher inflation. In general, lower interest rates increase the appeal of gold because it is a non-interest-bearing asset, making it cheaper to hold than other assets. OANDA:XAUUSD Technical Outlook Analysis On the daily chart, after gold fell to the support level noted by readers in the previous issue at 2,880 USD, it received support to recover, currently trading around 2,900 USD. A break above the 2,900 USD price level would be considered a positive signal with the next target being the EMA21 area, followed by 2,929 USD rather than 2,942 USD. In the short term, gold has not yet shown a specific trend when entering the accumulation phase, which is described by 2 green trend lines. But in the medium and long term, the possibility of price increase is still very good when in terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index RSI is still above 50. During the day, gold is in the accumulation phase with the main trend leaning towards price increase, the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,880 - 2,868 USD Resistance: 2,900 - 2,929 - 2,942 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2908 - 2906⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2912 →Take Profit 1 2900 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2894 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2857 - 2859⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2853 →Take Profit 1 2865 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2871
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Putting the current pullback from ATHs into context ES FuturesCME_MINI:ES1! Big Picture: ATH on December 6th, 2024: 6,184.50 There has been no significant correction or pullback since the ATH. Currently, the market has pulled back ~8.20% from the ATH. The previous correction (over a 10% pullback, but less than a 20% downturn) occurred after ES futures hit an all-time high of 5,856 on July 15th, 2024. The market bottomed out on August 5th, 2024. Currently, ES futures are trading below the 50% retracement level from the ATH on December 6th, 2024, and the swing low on August 5th, 2024, at 5,719.25. Given the current "risk-off" sentiment, let's review the updated price map for ES Futures. Key Levels: Important level to reclaim if no correction: 5,795.25 - 5,800 Key LVN (Low Volume Node): 5,738 - 5,696 Mid 2024 range: 5,574.50 Key Support: 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 2024 YTD mCVAL (Market Composite Value Area Low): 5,449.25 2022 CVAH (Composite Value Area High): 5,280 Key Support: 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 This zone is important in the event of a 10% pullback, which could lead to a bounce thereafter. On our regular 4-hour time frame, which we use for weekly analysis and preparation, higher lows have been breached, and ES futures are now trading below the lows from November 4th, 2024, January 13th, 2025, and February 28th, 2025. The probable next downside target is the 50% retracement of the 2024 range, which stands at 5,574.50. Unless we see a sustained bounce that reclaims the 5,795.25 - 5,800 zone, the key support level at 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 is likely to be tested, aligning with our expected 10% pullback. Note that a bear market (i.e., a pullback greater than 20%) wouldn't begin until prices drop to around 4,900, which is still about 750 points away from the current price level of 5,650. Considering all the above, what can we expect this week? CPI and PPI data are due this week, and the market is currently in "risk-off" mode. This sentiment is exacerbated by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on needing more data before altering rate path, combined with tariffs complicating the US economy. What price level might prompt policymakers to adjust their stance? The Fed’s dual mandate considers both 2% inflation and low unemployment. With the unemployment rate edging above 4% and inflation remaining high, this upcoming inflation reading is critical. We believe this report may trigger volatility not seen in recent months with CPI releases. We have the SEP and FOMC rate decision coming up on March 19th, 2024. Scenario 1: Soft CPI than expectations Expecting volatile price action, however, a V-shaped recovery given softer CPI reading. Markets go in wait and see Scenario 2: Range bound week In this scenario, we expect a range bound week, with inflation print in line and markets in wait and see mode for FED FOMC announcement. Scenario 3: High CPI print With a higher CPI print, FED will be in a difficult position to cut rates. Will this bad news be bad for the market or good? Mounting risks point to further downside if we do not get any pivot on macro level to support the economy.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
GOLD falls slightly as Dollar recovers, news, main trendsOANDA:XAUUSD has just dropped to around $2,912/ounce, down nearly $10 from the intraday high of $2,918/ounce reached earlier in the session. The recovery of the US Dollar can be seen as the current pressure causing gold prices to slightly decline from the intraday high. Overview of data and event news The Labor Department report showed the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, compared with economists polled by Reuters who expected a gain of 160,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, compared with expectations of 4%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said early Friday that the Fed would take a cautious approach to easing monetary policy, adding that the economy “remains in good shape.” While gold is a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates could reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. The market is now expecting the Fed to continue cutting interest rates starting in June, with a total of 76 basis points of interest rate cuts over the rest of the year. Market attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. In addition, inflation reports and retail sales data will also provide additional guidance for market trends in general and the gold market in particular. On the daily chart, gold is generally still in the accumulation phase with the positioning conditions tilted towards the upside. The short-term trend is highlighted by the price channel, while the nearest support is the EMA21 and the technical level of 2,900 USD. At the raw price point of 2,900 USD, it also created significant price increases in the last 2 days of the weekend. The relative strength index is facing some resistance from the 61 level noted in the previous issue, where once the RSI breaks this level it will continue to head towards the oversold zone which is a signal that will facilitate the possibility of gold price increasing in terms of momentum. In the coming time, as long as gold remains above 2,900 USD, it will still tend to be bullish in the short term, and the target continues to be the all-time high or higher. The notable technical price points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868 USD Resistance: 2,929 – 2,942 – 2,956 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2956 - 2954⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2960 →Take Profit 1 2948 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2942 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2877 - 2879⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2873 →Take Profit 1 2885 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2891
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#202510 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear rejections around 20000 are getting stronger and we could have seen the intermediate lows on Friday. I lean heavily bullish since we have touched the big bull trend line and market reacted there as expected. Bounce up could easily go for 21k again, which is the 50% retracement. Again. Bears need to form a proper wider channel down if they want lower prices. The past 3 weeks of selling were getting climactic and unsustainable. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19500 - 21400 bull case: Very bullish daily bar on Friday and bulls need follow-through to trigger a short squeeze. They want at least 21k again and if bears are not strong enough there, this selling could already be over again. 50% retracement is 21k and two big magnets are enough for me to have this as my main target next week. Bulls have to stay above 20k or they risk more poking at the bull trend line that started 2 years ago. On the monthly chart we are in a perfect bull wedge that has room to the upside and a bounce would fit the structure much more than a break below 19700. Invalidation is below 20400. bear case: Bears have shown strength for 3 consecutive weeks but are they really gonna fight the big trend line before we had a bounce? Selling around 20k is bad, no matter how you look at it. My measured move target for the bears was 19600 and the low was 19766. I really don’t have much for the bears at these lows. Sure we can continue down but it’s very unlikely. Best bears could get is probably sideways movement and if they are really strong, we stay below 20400. Invalidation is above 20400. short term: Neutral until bulls continue. Heavy bullish bias going into next week. I doubt we go much lower than 19766. 21k is my target. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000. current swing trade: None chart update: Updated possible bigger wave thesis for the next months. Until we have a W2 and new lows afterwards, it’s a rough guess.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 10 - March 14]OANDA:XAUUSD have recovered strongly this week, rising from $2,858/oz to $2,930/oz before adjusting to $2,910/oz. The main reason is political tension when US President Donald Trump stopped military aid to Ukraine and threatened to sanction Russia if it did not negotiate a ceasefire. This increased instability, supporting gold prices. However, if Russia and Ukraine move towards peace negotiations, gold prices may face downward pressure in the short term, although the possibility is still low. Furthermore, Mr. Trump’s move forced the European Union (EU) to launch a spending package of nearly 1 trillion euros to strengthen the defense of EU member states. This means that the EU’s budget deficit will become larger, leading to higher inflation and lower growth, thereby increasing the role of gold as a safe haven. The US non-farm payrolls (NFP) figure for February came in at 151,000, slightly below the forecast of 159,000. The unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.1% from 4% in January, but the labor market remains untroubled. As a result, the Fed may maintain its current interest rate. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also stressed that the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates as the labor market remains strong and inflation risks remain high. Rising inflation while the Fed maintains stable interest rates has caused real interest rates to fall, supporting gold prices. In addition, economic instability due to US tariff policies and the complicated developments of the Russia-Ukraine war have also increased the demand for safe haven gold. However, since most of the risks have been reflected in prices, gold may not increase sharply next week and there is a risk of correction due to short-term profit-taking pressure. 🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Inflation will be in focus next week as markets digest a number of key data on US prices and consumer spending. The most notable is the February CPI report on Wednesday, followed by the PPI on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday. Other key events include the US JOLTS jobs report on Tuesday, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision on Wednesday morning, and the US weekly jobless claims report on Thursday. 📌Technically, gold prices will fluctuate in a relatively narrow daily range next week with support at $2,890/oz and resistance at $2,930/oz. If gold prices rise above $2,930/oz next week, they could rise to $2,950/oz, followed by strong resistance at $3,000/oz. However, if gold prices are pushed below $2,890/oz next week, they could fall to the $2,835-$2,860/oz range. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868USD Resistance: 2,929 – 2,942 – 2,956USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2976 - 2974⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2980 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2809 - 2811⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2805
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Markets hesitant, GOLD sideways on NFP data dayIn the Asian trading session on Friday (March 7), the spot OANDA:XAUUSD maintained a very slight decline during the day and the current gold price is around 2,911 USD/ounce. On this trading day, investors will pay attention to the US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to impact the main trends in the gold market. The US non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 160,000 in February. Gold is likely to react more strongly to disappointing employment data than to an optimistic non-farm payrolls report because this will push gold prices higher, ending the period of downward adjustment and subsequent recovery and accumulation in the past. The US will release its February non-farm payrolls report at 20:30 Hanoi time on Friday. Surveys show that the number of non-farm payrolls in the US will increase by 160,000 in February, after increasing by 143,000 in January. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.0% in February. Surveys also show that the monthly increase in average wages in the US is expected to slow to 0.3% in February, after increasing by 0.5% in January. Average hourly earnings are likely to increase at an annual rate of 4.1% in February. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring signs of weakness in the labor market as it tries to balance supporting the labor market and controlling inflation. The slowdown in employment data certainly adds complexity to the Fed’s decision-making process. Review of expected data: A large negative surprise in non-farm payrolls, at 100,000 or lower, could put significant pressure on the dollar and open the door for a move higher in gold to help it end the week on the positive side. On the other hand, if the non-farm payrolls figure reaches or exceeds 180k, the dollar could remain firm and limit the upside potential for gold. Technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still in the process of accumulation before receiving a strong impact of structural change from NFP data released today. Up to now, the upward momentum is limited but short-term price declines are supported from the base price area of ​​2,900 USD, this is considered the closest support to pay attention to readers in the previous publication. Technically, the short-term trend is currently unclear as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also moving sideways in the 60-50 range, indicating that market sentiment is still hesitant. However, considering the overall fundamental and technical picture, my personal opinion is to defend the bullish view, with each decline only being considered a short-term correction or a buying opportunity. During the day, the technical outlook for gold continues to target the technical level of 2,942 USD in the short term, more than the all-time high. Notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 - 2,880 USD Resistance: 2,942 - 2,956 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2976 - 2974⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2980 →Take Profit 1 2968 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2962 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2877 - 2879⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2873 →Take Profit 1 2885 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2891
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading