#BTC. TOP PREDICTION FROM A TRADING GURU! REVIEW FROM 17.01.2025BINANCE:BTCUSDT
#BTC 1D
Hey lovelies! 🌸
With inauguration day approaching, all the negativity should play out before January 20th. Until then, I don’t expect any significant movements.
What’s Next?
If the market cooperates, we could soon see a breakout of the trendline and horizontal resistance.
In that case, consider the range of $102,466 - $104,705 to close your #BTC and other futures positions. It’s better not to take unnecessary risks, as increased volatility is expected on January 20th.
My Advice:
It’s always better to lock in solid profits now and maybe catch the FOMO if the market continues to rally, rather than panic during a potential drawdown. Trust me, the market will provide great entry opportunities after January 20th.
As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and trade wisely! 💖
Hugs,
Your crypto girl
Futures
#XRP. THE GROWTH STORY WILL CONTINUE! REVIEW FROM 17.01.2025BINANCE:XRPUSDT
#XRP 8h
Hey lovelies! 🌸
XRP is making waves, breaking into the top-100 global assets by market capitalization! 🚀 Today, XRP hit a new ATH at $3.4, surpassing companies like BlackRock, Siemens, and Booking in market value.
What’s Happening?
1. SEC Appeal
It was also reported today that the SEC has filed an appeal against the court’s decision in the Ripple case. The regulator submitted the appeal on the last possible day, avoiding an automatic closure of the case. Despite this, XRP is holding strong near the $3.1 level.
2. XRP Outshines Bitcoin
According to Google Trends, the search term "XRP" is now more popular than "Bitcoin"! This reflects the impressive growth and heightened activity surrounding XRP, which hit $3.4 today. However, increased interest in the token also suggests heightened risk, so trade cautiously.
My Expectations
I’m personally expecting a pullback to the $3.0 - $2.9 zone for:
- A retest of the horizontal resistance,
- Stop-loss hunting for long traders, and
- Trapping short traders.
After this, I anticipate a bounce toward $3.8 - $4.0.
However, if the $3.0 - $2.9 support fails, we could see a deeper correction to $2.4.
What to Watch For
Given the current positive narrative around Ripple, we might not see the desired correction, and XRP could rally directly to the target zone. Either way, I believe Ripple will eventually reach $4, but I don’t recommend entering at current levels.
If you’re looking to invest or add to your spot position, consider an entry near $3.0, and be prepared to average down near $2.4 if needed.
I’ll be patiently waiting for this setup to play out – no rush, just following the plan! 💖
As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and trade wisely! 💖
Hugs,
Your crypto girl
GOLD is close to the target level of 2,730 USDIn the Asian trading session, today's weekend January 17, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintains a strong trend, gold price is currently around 2,716 USD/ounce, close to the previous target increase at 2,730 USD/ounce.
OANDA:XAUUSD rose to a more than one-month high on Thursday as the latest U.S. economic data weighed on U.S. Treasury yields and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 11 increased by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted level of 217,000. Economists had expected 210,000 initial jobless claims last week.
Slightly weaker-than-expected US core CPI data led to a sharp fall in real yields, which should support further gains in gold prices on inflation fears and repricing of taper expectations interest rate.
Federal Reserve officials said data showed inflation in the US was continuing to slow, but they also noted growing uncertainty in the coming months as they wait for early policy signs. from the incoming administration of US President Donald Trump.
Potential tariffs from the Trump administration could exacerbate inflationary pressures.
The dollar fell, moving slightly from recent highs, as cooling US inflation data pulled bond yields down, continuing to support gold prices. And this is what we can most easily see about the alignment in these correlations in the market.
Meanwhile, geopolitically, the ceasefire and hostage agreement between Israel and Hamas has weakened demand for gold as a safe haven asset.
Last year, as tensions in the Middle East increased, gold hit several new highs on safe-haven demand and expectations that major central banks like the Federal Reserve would ease monetary policy further. again.
But this is not enough because geopolitical factors can have a sudden impact, but they are never sustainable long-term causes.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has continued to break out, approaching the target level of 2,730 USD. Note to readers in the previous edition the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Along with that, the uptrend is still dominating the daily chart, the uptrend price channel is highlighted by the green price channel, and the uptrend RSI maintains its above activity. The 50 level is still quite far from the overbought area, showing that there is still wide room for price increases ahead.
The main support is still at the POC Volume Profile level and the EMA21 line. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, it still has the potential to increase in price in the near future.
Currently, the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level has also become the closest support currently.
During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following notable technical levels.
Support: 2,700 – 2,693USD
Resistance: 2,730USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2736 - 2734⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2740
→Take Profit 1 2729
↨
→Take Profit 2 2724
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2684 - 2686⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2680
→Take Profit 1 2691
↨
→Take Profit 2 2696
Supported by data, GOLD skyrocketed with room to increaseDue to weaker-than-expected US core inflation data, the US Dollar TVC:DXY weakened and the market also rekindled expectations that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may not be over yet, gold prices increased sharply. Technical factors also continue the upward price structure.
US inflation is lower than expected
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month in December, slightly above the 0.3% forecast. of economists. The overall CPI inflation rate increased by 2.9% over the same period last year, in line with expectations.
Core CPI inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.2% year-on-year, slower than November data and below economists' median estimate of 3.3%. economic survey by Dow Jones.
Gold prices were supported and jumped by weaker-than-expected US core inflation data, causing US Treasury yields to fall sharply.
Core CPI was slightly lower than expected. This is a positive signal for gold because the corollary is that the Fed will not necessarily rule out cutting interest rates, although the possibility of cutting interest rates in January is not high, but some rate cuts Capacity is still expected before the end of the year.
Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but because it earns no interest, its appeal to investors diminishes in higher interest rate environments and vice versa in low interest rate environments.
Focus on key US economic data
Today (Thursday), financial markets focus on US retail sales, data on initial jobless claims and speeches from Federal Reserve officials.
Economists expect U.S. retail sales to rise 0.6% month-over-month in December, down from 0.7% in November. Initial jobless claims are expected to rise from 201,000 to 210,000 in the week ending January 11.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after ending the technical correction and receiving support from the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level that readers should pay attention to in previous publications, gold has continued to increase to continue. current bullish cycle.
With an active position above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level gold is likely to continue rising with a subsequent target at around $2,730 upon breaking the $2,700 base price.
In the short term, gold has achieved its target increase at 2,700 USD, however, the room for price increases is still quite wide ahead with the Relative Strength Index pointing up, operating above 50 and still at quite far from the overbought level.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still bullish with notable points listed as follows.
Support: 2,693 – 2,676USD
Resistance: 2,700 – 2,730USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2725
→Take Profit 1 2714
↨
→Take Profit 2 2709
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2672 - 2674⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2668
→Take Profit 1 2679
↨
→Take Profit 2 2684
OUR TRADE TODAY ON NASDAQAs I said in the previous post, I didn't share today's trades, since my clients and I focused on recovering the losses silently without sharing the trades to public.
Our entry was after we got a reversal point in which we entered and targeted the PVL inside of the liquidity zone.
Follow for more!
OUR TRADE TODAY ON USOILMy clients and I today too 2 trades, one on Oil and the other one on Nasdaq, we entered after that the market gave us a reversal point to target the liquidity level, which the market filled later in the day.
I didn't post it since we had to focus on recovering the losses silently, since we did, I'll be reposting again.
Follow for more!
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: The bull channel is clear and valid until broken. I do think a bigger pull-back is overdue but until then, bulls are in control.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2670 - 2770
bull case: Bulls want to print above 2761 and make a new high above the December high. If they can get it, we could see more upside to 2800 since there is no more resistance afterwards. the bull channel is tight and no matter how you count it, we had at least 3 legs up and betting on a 4th is a losing strategy in most cases.
Invalidation is below 2700.
bear case: Bears doing not enough and if they fail at 2761, we will go 2800+ again. Not much to interpret here. We are still in a bull channel on the 1h tf and bears would need a 1h bar close below the 20ema for a start. The previous times we got above 2740, we printed huge bear reversal bars and I am hoping for another one tomorrow. Bears are also seeing this as at least 3 legs up and they want another decent pull-back for at least 50 points like the prior ones.
Invalidation is above 2765.
short term: Neutral. Waiting for bears to come around here at big resistance. If they fail, we see 2800 soon. No bigger interest in buying this.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 1h tf at 2722 before EU open. Otherwise just any pullback to the 1h 20ema.
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: After hours selling was strong, especially on nasdaq. Sp500 is still well above 5950, which is my line in the sand for bulls. Below the odds for the bears increase big time. I still lean bullish for a retest of 6000 and I do think bears need stronger selling (spike + channel) to trap late bulls. Today was a trending trading range where all bars overlapped big time. The odds that we break below such a day after that rally are very low.
current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf)
key levels: 5900 - 6030
bull case: Bulls want to chop around 6000 to find more acceptance and break above the big bear channel. Their next target is the prior high 6068. On the previous short squeeze we melted to 6068, pulled back hard for 60 points and then print a lower high. I still expect bulls to get a lower high closer to 6000, if not the breakout above.
Invalidation is below 5950.
bear case: Bears want to get below 5950 and then test the breakout price of 5918. The 50% retracement is also there at 5913. For now I don’t think today’s price action was that bearish but the after hours selling is weird to say the least. It’s a bad spot for both sides to trade at 5960ish.
Invalidation is above 6020.
short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. Again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting 6000 was decent many many times.
#CYBER. BUYING FOR SPOT WITH BIG FUTURE!! REVIEW FROM 16.01.2025BINANCE:CYBERUSDT
#1D
Hi lovelies! 🌸
Right now, the asset is moving sideways, hovering near the lower boundary of its structure, which also happens to be a strong support level. We’ve already seen a bounce off this zone, indicating the presence of a strong buyer pushing the price upward – definitely a positive signal! 💎
In the mid-term, I expect further upward movement, possibly after a slight correction to the $2.6 area. Overall, I think the $3 - $2.6 range is an excellent entry point for spot positions.
Targets:
- Nearest target: $5
- On a bullish market rally, this token could soar to $10 - $15. No doubts about its potential during a bull run! 🚀
As always, stick to your risk management rules and follow your own trading strategy!
I’ll be patiently waiting for this setup to play out – no rush, just following the plan! 💖
As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and trade wisely! 💖
Hugs,
Your crypto girl
GOLD recovers to original target, paying attention to US CPIOANDA:XAUUSD recovered strongly and is currently traded quite narrowly. US PPI data has reinforced investor confidence in the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further this year. In addition, Trump's report on tariffs also affected the USD, helping push gold prices higher. On Wednesday, investors are focused on the US CPI, which is expected to cause a big swing in the markets.
US PPI data and Trump's tariff report influence the USD
US PPI unexpectedly came in lower than expected in December, driven by lower food costs and firm service prices, which may help ease concerns about persistent price pressure.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the U.S. PPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in December, an increase less than the 3.5% expected. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.5% year-on-year, below expectations of 3.8%.
US PPI increased 0.2% month-on-month in December, lower than the 0.4% increase in November and below market expectations of 0.4%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged from the previous month, missing economists' expectations of a 0.3% increase and the previous month's 0.2% increase.
After the US PPI data was released, the US Dollar fell again. A weaker US Dollar makes gold more attractive.
Bloomberg reports that members of US President-elect Donald Trump's incoming economic team are discussing gradually increasing taxes month by month to increase their negotiating leverage incrementally, while also helping to avoid rising inflation. mutation.
One idea is to build a progressive tax schedule with monthly increases of about 2% to 5%, said people familiar with the matter. The plan would also need to rely on executive powers granted by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. This news also affected the US Dollar, causing gold prices to recover.
Pay attention to US CPI
Investors are now waiting for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday to analyze the Fed's policy direction.
The US CPI is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.9% in December, higher than the previous month's 2.7% increase, while the month-on-month CPI increase in the month 12 is expected to be 0.3%. .
If Wednesday's US CPI report is lower than expected, it could increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will ease policy this year, which would benefit gold. And of course the opposite effect is if the data is higher than expected.
Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but due to its non-interest-bearing nature, a high interest rate environment weakens its investment appeal.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is still trading very narrowly but as mentioned to readers in previous publications that gold has achieved the initial technical conditions for a possible price increase.
With the short-term trend formed by the green price channel and support from EMA21, POC Volume Profile.
After the previous correction, gold has also recovered from the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level to reach the initial target at 2,676 USD, the next target will be around 2,693 - 2,700 USD. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index maintained above 50 is a positive signal for an uptrend in the near future while still quite far from the overbought area.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bullish, notable points will also be listed as follows.
Support: 2,664 – 2,650USD
Resistance: 2,676 – 2,693 – 2,700USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705
→Take Profit 1 2694
↨
→Take Profit 2 2689
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2645
→Take Profit 1 2656
↨
→Take Profit 2 2661
2025-01-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral around 6000. Market is close to the daily 20ema, bear trend line and big round number 6000. I won’t even think about longing this but it’s obviously wrong to short too early. As long as bulls keep it above 5950, they are good and in full control of the market. Targets above are 6030 and then 5050. If bulls break above the bear trend line, there aren’t many reasons why we could not just melt to 6100+.
comment: Huge bull day but right at multiple prior resistances. Bad buy no matter how you put it. I would actually not be surprised if we trade below 5950 or lower tomorrow. We have been going wildly up and down in this bear wedge/channel and that pattern is valid until clearly broken.
current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf)
key levels: 5900 - 6030
bull case: Bulls got the big move from the CPI news and they want to test the bear trend line and break above it. It’s just not a good buy and hoping for a breakout. I won’t make stuff up here. If bulls break above 6020, next target is 6068 and then 6100.
Invalidation is below 5795.
bear case: Bears need anything to stop the rally. They have good arguments with the daily ema, bear trend line and big round number 6000. They came around the prior weeks and until that bear trend line is broken, I expect them to keep this a lower high as well. It would be pretty funny if we completely reverse today before we go into the weekend.
Invalidation is above 6030.
short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 15m chart around 5956 was good.
MNQ CPI News Drop Rallies the marketLooks like price has seen an impressive Bullish reaction today from the 0830 news drop that took out the past days highs that was housing a ton of BSL. Conveniently, price seems to be drawing into the D SIBI and is in close proximity to the High from Wed 08 Jan 2025. I can see price trading into the SIBI and finding some sort of rejection.
Now to go forward does this make my Bias Bullish leaving the focus on the SSL at 20640.00? No not just yet because I would like to see how price trades and respects the three Premium Arrays being the D -OB, D Volume Imbalance, and the D SIBI. If price is Bullish then it should see little resistance from the CE level and the MT of the D -OB but if price is Bearish then we will see it respect a Premium Array and then continue lower.
So far there is a nice sweep on SSL and the CPI rally could be the Displacement and MSS that price needed to make to turn things around to become Bullish and start to hunt the Highs for BSL from the Mon and Tue highs of last week.
#ETH. HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF! REVIEW FROM 15.01.2025BYBIT:ETHUSDT
#ETH 2D
Hi lovelies! 🌸
The current chart for Ethereum reminds me of a familiar pattern we saw back in Spring 2024 (marked on the chart). It feels like history is repeating itself! ✨
In my opinion, the $3058 - $2856 range is a key zone where buyers are likely to step in. This level has proven to be strong support in the past, with buyers repeatedly holding it, which then sparked upward movements. And guess what? We’re already starting to see that happen now! 💎
If a new uptrend forms, the nearest resistance levels are $3954 - $4096, where the price may face some selling pressure and potentially pull back.
Oh, and let’s not forget the exciting "Pectra" update coming in Q1 2025! This major network upgrade will introduce improvements like enhanced Ethereum Virtual Machine (EOF) and 11 new EIPs, boosting network efficiency and performance. 🚀
Once again, I want to highlight the positive potential for Ethereum. I truly believe that 2025 is the year of green Ethereum!
Personally, I’m aiming for $5000 - $6000, but let’s see how it all unfolds. 💖
As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and trade wisely! 💖
Hugs
Your crypto girl
MNQ Continued Bearish Bias OutlookMy directional Bias for MNQ remains Bearish with the expectation on price to trade lower into the D BISI and take the SSL from the double bottom around 20640.00 I also like how price wicked the CE level of the D BISI that could indicate lower prices since price cant even make it through the inefficiencies 50% CE level. Now price may not make the move lower all the way and could just trade as low as the D Discount Wick 50% level which is also conveniently placed in CP to the D BISI CE level as well but lets see what price gives us.
2025-01-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral. Strong by the bulls to keep the Globex gap open to 20326 but they failed at finding acceptance above 20420. We continue sideways until one side clearly gives up. We are still close to the middle of the bigger triangle so shorts need a stop 20622 and that’s far away. I still slightly favor the bears to rather trade back down to 20200ish than above 20500.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20200 - 20500
bull case: Bulls want to stay above 20300 and continue upwards to test 20500. They are in control as long as the Globex gap stays open. Bulls are also above most important 20ema and that means they are in control of the market. Their issue is, that they can’t find more buyers above 20400 and all daily bars since last week have decent tails above them. Bulls will only try so many times before more give up and want to short lower again.
Invalidation is below 20300.
bear case: Bears have a decent head & shoulders pattern that could break down over the next days. The measured move target is around 20150 which was Monday’s low. First target for them would be to close the gap to 20320 and close a 1h bar there. Bulls have bought every touch of the 1h 20ema and until that changes, we continue sideways to up. Problem for the bears is, that we could go up to 20500 or even 20550 to hit the bigger bear trend line. That stop is far away and likely a reason why bears scalp out near support.
Invalidation is above 20500.
short term: Neutral 20300 - 20400. Bears need a strong move below 20320 and bulls need to find acceptance above 20420.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: Scaling in and out of shorts. In above 20450 and out where market shows support (currently 20350).
trade of the day: Buying close to the Globex gap was good for many longs. Also selling close to 20500 was a no-brainer since market went mostly sideways before and we had huge prior resistance 20500 and above.
#XRP EXPECTING ANOTHER ALL-TIME HIGH FOR RIPPLE! FROM 14.01.2025BINANCE:XRPUSDT
1D
Hey lovelies! 🌸
Currently, the price of #XRP has formed a "symmetrical triangle" pattern – a classic technical analysis structure indicating a trend where the price moves within two converging trendlines. Right now, the breakout from this triangle has occurred upward, signaling potential further growth for XRP. 📈
Why the Growth?
Despite my mixed feelings about the coin, XRP’s current growth could be linked to positive news, such as a potential decision by the SEC to ease its pressure on the cryptocurrency industry.
Additionally, the active support of Ripple’s community may continue to drive the price upward, creating strong momentum for further growth.
My Position:
We previously accumulated Ripple at $0.50, and I personally plan to hold it at least until the ATH. 💎 If you’re looking for entry points, I recommend placing three pending buy orders (marked on the chart) with a target of $3 and higher. This coin still has huge potential! 🚀
Let’s see how this plays out, my loves! 💖
As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and trade wisely! 💖
Hugs
Your crypto girl
#BTC. BEST OVERVIEW, EVERYONE TAKES AN EXAMPLE! FROM 14.01.2025BINANCE:BTCUSDT
#BTC 6H
Hey lovelies! 🌸
This morning, the market saw over $450 million in liquidations. While most of these positions have already been closed, new positions worth over $1 billion have appeared, indicating high activity and continued risks.
Market Overview
As we can see on the chart, the $92,000 support level has been broken, which could signal further downward movement. While I can’t say for sure what will happen, it’s clear that we’ve hit the first buy zone from my previous analyses, with #BTC touching $89,000 in the moment.
Investors are now predicting that the Fed will NOT cut interest rates in 2025 (based on market expectations). Additionally, major stock indices have been declining for two consecutive weeks as recent U.S. macro data exceeded expectations, signaling a hawkish monetary policy from the Fed.
Concerns about a potential resurgence in inflation are also growing.
Key Levels to Watch
- The $88,700 low has not been broken yet. If it is, we could see further declines. This level is now a key marker for future decisions.
- On the upside, the important volume resistance level is at $94,233.
While I believe the market could see a short-term bounce, there is still a larger probability of further price declines in the broader picture.
Entry Points
If you’re looking for specific entry points, consider the $91,000 - $85,000 range for opening a futures position or accumulating on spot.
Let’s see how this plays out, my loves! 💖
As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and trade wisely! 💖
Hugs
Your crypto girl
USD soars, GOLD corrects but conditions remain bullishAfter last week's surge, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading suddenly suffered a fierce correction and the upward momentum was limited. US bond yields soared, the US Dollar strengthened and investors' profit-taking activities affected the trend of gold. In addition, news of a ceasefire in the Middle East also negatively impacted gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD fell again as US Treasury yields rose to their highest since November 2023. The US Dollar Index surpassed 110.00 in trading on Monday, pressuring gold prices.
The dollar index rose to its highest since November 2022 after the US jobs report emphasized the strength of the economy and clouded the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A rising Dollar will make gold less attractive.
The latest New York Fed survey shows one-year inflation expectations at 3% and interest rate futures traders are pricing in a Fed rate cut this year of less than 25 basis points. copies, or less than once.
Because gold does not generate interest, a high interest rate environment reduces its appeal to investors.
A ceasefire in Gaza could take place as early as this week
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told Bloomberg on Monday that the Biden administration believes a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached as early as this week. He added that there was no guarantee that all parties would agree to such a deal.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Sullivan said US President Joe Biden's administration has contacted Trump's newly elected team and is looking to form a united front on this issue before the transfer of power in Washington on January 20.
Previously, Britain's Reuters quoted officials familiar with the negotiation process as saying on Monday that mediators had submitted a draft "final agreement" to the warring parties on a ceasefire and the release of children. believe. Officials said that in addition to delegations from both Israel and Kazakhstan, current US President McGurk and President-elect Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff were also present at the peace talks. hosted by Qatar Prime Minister Mohammed in Doha.
Reuters said the talks achieved a breakthrough after midnight on Sunday and mediators led by Qatar immediately submitted a draft ceasefire agreement to Israel and Kazakhstan.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold has adjusted down significantly from the important confluence level, readers should pay attention to previous publications at the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% confluence with the upper edge of the green price channel and one side of the triangle. purple price. But the downside correction was also limited after reaching target support at the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Currently, gold is recovering from the 0.50% Fibonacci level, but first it needs to break the technical point of 2,676 USD, then the target is around 2,693 - 2,700 USD in the short term.
Up to now, gold still has conditions to increase technically with supporting factors from EMA21, POC Volume Profile and the green short-term rising price channel.
Along with that, the Relative Strength Index maintained its activity above 50, also quite far from the overbought area, showing that there is still room for price increases ahead.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bullish with notable points listed as follows.
Support: 2,664 – 2,650USD
Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2688 - 2686⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2692
→Take Profit 1 2681
↨
→Take Profit 2 2676
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2644 - 2646⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2640
→Take Profit 1 2651
↨
→Take Profit 2 2656
S&P ES Short setup target 5811 / Put SPY target 574Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) has already found resistance at the Fib level 78.6% (6057.75) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 7) has closed below retracement Fib level 38.2% (5963.75). My Down Fib guides me to look for CME_MINI:ES1! to eventually go down to hit first target at Fib level -27.2% (5811.50).
S&P CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 5811.50, Target 2 at -61.8% (5731) and Target 3 at -78.6 (5691.75)
Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (5991.25).
Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart (Down Fib from 602.48 to 580.50) shows price to go down to Target 1 at -27.2% (574.52), Target 2 at -61.8% (566.92) and Target 3 at -78.6 (563.22)
Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (591.50).
GOLD has bullish conditions, pay attention to inflation dataOANDA:XAUUSD is accumulating upward momentum, rising to a new multi-week high above $2,680 an ounce. The technical outlook shows that gold prices have shifted to an uptrend in the near future. Next week, key economic indicators from China and the US inflation data will likely drive gold price movements.
The US government on Friday released a nonfarm report showing 256,000 new jobs were created last December, far higher than the expected 160,000 and the biggest increase in nine months. The unemployment rate in December was 4.1%, also the lowest with an expected value of 4.2%.
Reasons for OANDA:XAUUSD The recovery after Friday's decline was due despite stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls data, reducing the likelihood of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. However, the Trump administration's upcoming policies have brought uncertainty, increasing gold's safe-haven appeal.
It can be quite certain that, as soon as Trump takes office, a series of major changes in US economic and foreign policy will suddenly change and gold will always benefit in an economically unstable environment. geopolitics.
Gold investors will wait for US inflation data
Early next week, investors will pay attention to China's December trade balance data. A significant increase in China's trade surplus could support gold prices during the Asian session next Monday.
Next Wednesday, US December inflation data could trigger gold's next big move. The market expects the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 0.3% month-on-month in December, but core CPI to fall 0.1% over the same period.
If CPI is higher than expected, the immediate market reaction could boost the USD and cause gold to fall. On the other hand, negative data could make it difficult for the USD to find demand and help gold maintain its position or push gold prices higher.
Gold investors will wait for US inflation data
Early next week, investors will pay attention to China's December trade balance data. A significant increase in China's trade surplus could support gold prices during the Asian session next Monday.
Next Wednesday, US December inflation data could trigger gold's next big move. The market expects the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 0.3% month-on-month in December, but core CPI to fall 0.1% over the same period.
If CPI is higher than expected, the immediate market reaction could boost the USD and cause gold to fall. On the other hand, negative data could make it difficult for the USD to find demand and help gold maintain its position or push gold prices higher.
China's fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data could influence gold trends during the Asian trading session next Friday. Analysts expect China's annual GDP growth rate to reach 5.1% in the fourth quarter, higher than the 4.6% growth rate in the third quarter. A positive surprise could help gold prices edged higher, while disappointing GDP data could weigh on gold prices.
Market participants will also pay attention to new developments surrounding Trump's tariff strategy. While gold benefits from risk aversion, a sharp rise in US Treasury yields could limit gold's gains.
The economic calendar needs attention next week
Tuesday: US PPI
Wednesday: US CPI, Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Thursday: US Retail Sales, Philly Federal Reserve Survey, Weekly Jobless Claims
Friday: Housing construction starts and construction permits in the United States
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, gold has achieved conditions for a short-term uptrend although the upward momentum is being hindered by the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. And once gold breaks above $2,693 it will be ripe for upside with a target of around $2,730 in the short term.
In terms of support factors, the POC Volume Profile level will be the closest support, combined with the EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.618% creating a reliable support area for each correction to ensure that, as long as gold does not If it breaks below the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it still has the potential to increase in price in the near future.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is also pointing up from level 50, still quite far from the overbought level with a significant slope, this is a signal for room for price increases in the near future. On the other hand, an uptrend price channel has also just been formed.
In the coming time, the technical outlook for gold tends to increase in price with notable levels listed as follows.
Support: 2,676 – 2,664USD
Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2711 - 2709⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2715
→Take Profit 1 2704
↨
→Take Profit 2 2699
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2663⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2657
→Take Profit 1 2668
↨
→Take Profit 2 2673