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GC GOLD Buy BOXBeen a while since posting my thoughts here, I have been working on something that is GOLD. Supply and Demand can often be overlooked. Trading can often be over complicated. Back up and study the basics. Supply and demand characteristics of the market are the most rudimentary but often the best way to creaete a system that brings forth consistent gains. How many traders are actually profitable. Find a system that works for you it could start with a simple supply and demand type strategy. Here we have price reacted perfectly off of the supply zone, (Yes I took that short position from the top and have the screen shot to prove it just ask if you want to see it). Now will we enter a demand zone and reverse. My plan is to simply wait, I took my profits and now I just wait until my alerts are hit and my criteria is met to go the other direction. What will you do? Leave it in the comments I am happy to be back posting and look forward to more!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Verum0
2024-08-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bulls bought the big after hour dip yesterday and had a big rally but damn that was some big and fast selling in the last 2 hours of the US session. What did we learn today? Shift into Dax and DJI, since they just melted again and new ATH on both (dax xetra, not futures though) and rest of the markets made lower highs and lower lows. Still absolutely neutral imo but if bears get follow through tomorrow, the highs are probably in for this bull leg. dax futures comment: 3 clearn pushes up to a new xetra ath and volume is picking up again. Time for a reversal. Can you short this yet? I think so but stop has to be 19050ish and we are still above many bull trend lines. If you want higher probability, wait for bears to make lower lows again. Absolute ripper of a bull leg since early August and given the atrocious volume, had to be a short squeeze. I expect the next 2000 points will be made to the downside over the next 10 weeks. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels : 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls were relentlessly buying this but now with a new ath and all the remaining bear stops hit, market is free to do whatever. Bulls could do a blow-off top 19100/19200 before strongly reversing but i favor a retest of 19000 tomorrow before sideways to down movement. Bulls want to stay above 18800 as long as possible. Invalidation is below 18800. bear case: Bears want to trap as many late bulls as possible but before more bears come around and more bulls begin to take profits, we would need to start breaking bull trend lines and producing consecutive bear bars on higher time frames. The daily chart tells you everything you need to know as a bear right now. Below 18800 bears start to have some arguments but as of now, expect BTFD to continue until it has clearly stopped. Invalidation is above 18800. short term: If you get bullish at a new ath, no one can help you. Trend is your friend and all that but betting on another leg up is gambling at best. Scalp long if the momentum is there but get out early. This can and probably will turn soon. Absolutely neutral as of now and only touching it if one side is clearly in control. Caught a 60 point drop today, very happy with that. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nope but long term shorts are looking juicy. trade of the day: Buying the open was again very profitable. Long above bar 29 was very reasonable. Shorting below bar 72 was also a good trade, one which I took.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-08-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - News again which let the market rip for 285 ticks but above 67.7 we saw bigger profit taking and a decent pullback to the 30m ema. Kinda in the middle of the range and I am not trading there. Also no opinion on where to go next. Around 77 I favor bears to get back down again and around 74 I favor the bulls. Trading range price action. comment : Bulls had the news on their side today and strongly reversed from 74 for almost 3$. I expect another test of 77 tomorrow and there market decides if it wants to break above the weekly high 77.59 or trade back down to 74. Can also very well close exactly at the mid point 75.5. Neutral around 75-76, bearish near 77 and bullish around 74. Fade the extremes as long as market is making lower highs and higher lows. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 74 - 77 bull case: Bulls got near the bear trend line again and found more sellers than buyers. They want at least a retest of 77 and poke the trend line. Since no side has any control for many weeks now, I don’t expect this to change tomorrow. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears stepped aside after the news release but come through near the bear trend line. They defended it and want to keep this below 77 / 77.59. 76 is a bad short, so the closer to 77 they can get, the better the math. Invalidation is above 76.2. short term: Neutral. Bullish above 76.2 for retest of 77 and then wanting to fade the extremes as mentioned in the comment. medium-long term : We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long bar 7 or 8. Very strong bull bars after a climactic bear bar 7 which made a decent double bottom with bar 8 from Wednesday.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Positive technical position, GOLD will pay attention to US PCEFinancial markets in general are closely watching key inflation data from the world's largest economy for clues about the scale of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September. PCE data by The US release on Friday will also be the main data focus this week. With an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September almost certain, attention also turns to the pace of future adjustments, and how intense they will be. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 65.5% chance of the US cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September and a 34.5% chance of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Investors are now awaiting US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data released on Friday. If Friday's PCE data is lower than expected, it could fuel expectations of a more dovish Fed, creating bullish potential for gold. And even if the PCE is higher than expected, it won't change the outlook for a Fed rate cut in September, so a higher-than-expected increase in PCE would only be temporary. limit the upward momentum of gold prices, or create short-term corrections that do not fundamentally affect the main uptrend. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold remains stable with near-term bullish conditions despite a sudden short-term correction yesterday that did not affect the technical uptrend. The structure has not changed with an uptrend in both the short, medium and long term with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). The fact that gold remains above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension is a positive factor for the bullish price target noticed by readers in the weekly publication at 2,531 USD in the short term, more than the level of 2,544 USD. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up but has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still a bit more room for price increases. As long as gold remains within the price channel, declines should only be considered a short-term correction and a short-term buying opportunity. During the day, the technical prospect of gold price increase will be noticed again by the following price levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2521 - 2519⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2525 →Take Profit 1 2514 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2509 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2482 - 2484⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2478 →Take Profit 1 2489 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2024-08-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - The triangle broke above but bears sold it hard for a retest of the minor bull trend line at 2530. We are now in a nested wedge and the bigger but broader bull channel. Market is mostly moving sideways though. Expecting for the wedge to break tomorrow and it could go either way. gold comment: Globex session sold off for 24 points before EU opened. Market went mostly sideways afterwards but stayed below the 1h ema. I consider the triangle broken since we made a higher high again but it does not matter. Now its an ascending triangle and you trade them the same. Advice? Wait for the breakout and do not lose money in trading ranges unless you are super profitable trading them. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2500 - 2570 bull case: Bulls bought the bull trend line and kept it above 2530, which is still max bullishness. No more reading into this trading range at the highs. BTFD is going strong, don’t look for shorts. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Bears trying but failing. Best they can hope for is the market to continue to go sideways until it’s more neutral. Invalidation is above 2570. short term: Neutral between 2530-2570, bullish above and bearish below. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —unchanged for many months. Will do on update next weekend. current swing trade : None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 9 + 13 but only for a scalp. If you weren’t short during Globex, best not to trade afterwards.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
2024-08-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Some decent selling today but tis just a dent compared to the bull rally from the previous 3 weeks. Nvidia numbers were in line but the buyback should have been good enough for more euphoria and instead nasdaq puked for 200 points. I do think bears are favored tomorrow but will need follow through below 19200 on nasdaq. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Market continues inside the bull flag and the longer it goes on the more neutral market becomes. Nvidia numbers were in line but market puked 200 points, despite the 50b buyback. Since it recovered most of it as of now, I think we have to wait for tomorrow’s US session for a clear direction but I do think bears chances are very good that we have seen the lower high at 20025 and we go lower from here. I want confirmation below 19200 tomorrow. If bulls can get above 19500 again, they are favored for 19600 or higher again. current market cycle: Bull flag inside the bigger trading range key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case : Bulls want a new ath but Nvidia earnings did not help their case. Still a bull flag after the insane reversal. I wait for tomorrow’s price action. Bulls need to get above 19500 for more upside. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears hope for armageddon. They need to keep this below 19500 to keep their chances of more downside decent. Getting short between 19350 - 19500 is risky but can work. Validation for more downside is a 1h close below 19200. If bears manage that, we could have a bloody day tomorrow. Invalidation is above 19500. short term: Neutral. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Selling the open was pretty decent I guess. There was no reason to exit until we hit 19400 and after that, market just went sideways.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD is supported, Powell is dovish, geopolitics is complicatedWith the impact of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish comments, the USD continued to be less attractive and gold returned to closing weekly above the original price of 2,500 USD, opening up a positive outlook for the following week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that it is time to adjust policy, signaling that an interest rate cut is imminent. This can be considered the strongest signal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's interest rate cut. And of course that is enough for gold to continue to increase in price. Quoting Powell: "The time to adjust policy has come. Confidence that inflation is heading towards 2% has increased. We do not seek or welcome further cooling in the labor market. We will do so." everything possible to support the labor market and get there." New geopolitical point According to Israeli media reports, an Israeli air force control tower on Mount Melon in northern Israel was attacked by Hezbollah missiles, with one missile fired directly at the facility. Israel has carried out a series of attacks in southern Lebanon in recent times. However, hopes for an agreement faded when Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas blamed each other and failed to reach an agreement after more than 10 months of war in the Gaza Strip. Ongoing geopolitical tensions have reinforced gold's status as a safe-haven asset, and ongoing global instability has prompted investors to turn to gold to seek protection from market risks and fluctuations. As these tensions continue to increase, gold prices will receive even more support. Main basic focus Overall, the gold market is currently fully supported fundamentally, with the USD having a weaker future as the Fed's interest rate cut time approaches, and the cutting cycle will last longer. not ending soon or just a short-term adjustment. On the other hand, geopolitical developments are more complicated with prolonged wars in Ukraine - Russia and the Gaza Strip,... is also a very important factor promoting safe haven psychology, gold is known as a valuable asset. The most effective communication shelter. Overall, in a simpler way, in the long run, gold will continue to have a basic upward trend, even when the geopolitical conflict cools down, which will only create short-term profit taking. In the coming time, the Chinese Central Bank will likely reduce the amount of physical gold purchases in the second half of the year and will focus more on gold ETF purchases, and this should be considered a solid support move when China China is the world's leading gold user and hoarder along with India. Data focus this week The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data next Friday, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Higher than expected data could be seen as a supportive move for the USD in the short term, while lower or equal data is expected to continue to support gold prices higher into the end of next week. Additionally, US GDP data on Thursday could also bring some volatility to the market. The economic calendar needs attention this week Monday: US durable goods orders Tuesday: US consumer confidence Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims, US second-quarter preliminary GDP Friday: US PCE index Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continued to close above the $2,500 raw price after receiving support and a post-corrective recovery from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension and the $2,484 technical level acting as the closest support for short-term uptrend. The overall chart still shows that gold has all the technical conditions for an uptrend in the long, medium and short term with the long-term trend being noticed by the price channel and medium-term support from the EMA21 along with the trend. short-term from the price channel. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, with the weekly close above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, next week's uptrend will be directed towards $2,531 in the short term and more than 2,544USD. The level of 2,544USD will still be the target for price increases in the near future. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up without reaching the overbought level, showing that there is still technical room for price increases to be achieved. the above mentioned goals. In the coming time, the uptrend of gold will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2548 - 2546⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2552 →Take Profit 1 2541 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2536 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2493 - 2495⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2489 →Take Profit 1 2500 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2505
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has corrections near record highs, main trendAfter Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a dovish signal, the market has finished pricing in an interest rate cut in September. At the same time, gold continues to be supported by safe-haven demand Due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine, gold prices are making certain adjustments near record highs. Last Friday, Mr. Powell supported the impending interest rate cut, saying that the continued cooling of the job market would not be positive and this is notable support that is easy to see. for gold in the current situation. Gold is a notable example where geopolitical risk aversion increases investor demand for safe-haven assets. • Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah fired rockets at each other over the weekend in one of the biggest border clashes in more than 10 months. Hezbollah fired hundreds of missiles and drones into Israel early Sunday morning, and the Israeli military said to prevent a larger attack, it used about 100 warplanes to attack. Lebanon. Top US generals said on Monday that the short-term risk of a wider war in the Middle East had diminished following a firefight between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah, according to the latest news at Reuters. • On Monday morning, explosions occurred in many places across Ukraine. Ukraine's military has warned of a large-scale Russian missile and drone attack, following a wave of early morning drone attacks. The Ukrainian military said 11 Russian TU-95 strategic bombers were flying in the air and confirmed they had launched multiple missiles. The Kyiv Post said Russia launched the largest missile attack since the Russia-Ukraine war, and thousands of people in Kiev poured into the metro station. Although gold has adjusted downward, the basic factors still show that the upward trend in prices will continue to dominate the gold market and the basic trend in the near future. With support from policy, interest rate directions as well as geopolitical risks continue to appear new. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is experiencing bearish corrections during the Asian session today, Tuesday August 27 but the technical trend remains unchanged with conditions tilted strongly towards a bullish outlook. In the short term, as long as gold remains above the original price of $2,500 and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it still has bullish prospects with a short-term target of $2,531 and more to the $2,544 level. However, in case the 0.786% Fibonacci level is broken below, the impact of the technical correction could go a little deeper with a target drop to $2,484 in the short term. During the day, the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged and notable levels are listed as follows. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2548 - 2546⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2552 →Take Profit 1 2541 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2536 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2493 - 2495⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2489 →Take Profit 1 2500 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2505
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD could still rally, even if PCE is higher than expectedThe weakening US Dollar, dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and geopolitical developments will still be the main driving forces driving gold prices to increase in the near future fundamentally. Last Friday, Mr. Powell said “it is time to adjust policy,” sending a strong signal about cutting interest rates. Rising tensions in the Middle East are also creating momentum for gold prices to recover. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated over the weekend and concerns that the conflict could widen will be a factor in boosting gold prices. On Tuesday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the United States believes Iran is “ready” to take retaliatory actions against Israel, so the United States has increased its military deployment. in the area. The US message to Iran is not to retaliate against Israel and there is no reason to escalate the situation or provoke a regional war, but if Iran attacks Israel, the US is ready to defend Israel. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders see a 65.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September and about a 34.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. The market is now awaiting the release of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the key inflation report and the Fed's preferred inflation measure, on Friday. A surprise higher-than-expected inflation data could impact Fed policy expectations, but the Fed will certainly cut interest rates in September and could cut rates again this year. . Therefore, even if data shows a return of inflation, it will not be considered a pressure on gold, and may be an opportunity for a short-term correction in gold prices, opening up opportunities for those who wait buy. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is correcting gently in early Asia today (Wednesday, August 28) to 2,517USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of about 0.29% as of the time of writing. However, the technical structure does not have any changes with the tendency to increase both the value in the short term and on average over a number of periods. In the short term, the gold zone remains above the 0.786% Fibobacci extension level, it still develops a bullish outlook towards the target of interest when you read the weekly output at 2,531USD in the short term, more Another 2,544 USD. There aren't any negative signs for gold prices and the intraday bullish trend will be noticed by the following notable devices. Support: 2,503 – 2,500USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2561 - 2559⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2565 →Take Profit 1 2554 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2549 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2482 - 2484⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2478 →Take Profit 1 2489 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
NVDA New ATH Inbound Technical reasons for a move to the upside are as follows 1 - 1 Fib Extension gives us $155 TR Pocket pull gives us $154 - $157 for more confluence, and finally we have Pivots at $152. All aligning in the same region I expect price to eventually gravitate to the upside . Not necessarily all on earnings day but never say never . Market structure is also in a bullish uptrend HTF. With that in mind we have these strong technicals/confluence to expect all time highs to be taken out $140.76.*ATH come Earnings Release. I dont advocate blindly longing up here though as the last opportunity to long was back in July but if you trade the INDEX Futures then you can use this as a potential compass into taking a Long * NQ for example . I dont look at Fundamentals but it was brought to my attention that the CEO has been selling vast amounts of stock which is publicly displayed if you care to investigate . So its possible that he knows something that we dont and maybe the results that are announced tomorrow dont meet expectations . if thats the case then of course be prepared for a move to the downside before continuation to the upside but bear in mind that NVDA have beaten expectations 4 X previously and have lucrative partnerships in the tech space and AI is still in its infancy so anything can happen . I remain bullish on the sector and NVDA especially Results are announced after market close Wed 29 Share and Like to support my work
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by SJTRADESFUTURES
2
2024-08-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yeah I spare you your time. Markets have no idea where to go right now but I think Nvidia earnings can move it for good. Absolutely no opinion on those earnings and how market will react. I don’t like to gamble on such things. sp500 e-mini futures comment: I won’t conjure much words today for a market inside a 50 point triangle. Clear support and resistance visible. Either scalp it to both sides or wait for the breakout. No opinion on which side the breakout will happen. Both sides have arguments and I won’t try to guess it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5600 - 5670 bull case: Bulls want to get above 5670 and to make the bears give up so they can print a new ath or at least 5700 again. I do think many bulls will give up below 5550 but that’s far away for now. Currently no more magic to it. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: Bears coming through with selling spikes rather than consecutive bear bars or sustained selling. I think many stops will be around 5675-5680 and market would probably print 5700 fast then. If Nvidia misses and market pukes, below 5580 I will heavily favor the bears to reverse the madness. Invalidation is above 5675. short term: Neutral as it gets. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap at the open anywhere below 5619. Second best was any long around 5628 since market is trying hard to show you this is support for now. Selling 5649 was also decent. Trading range with clear support and resistance. Buy low, sell high and scalp.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Morning and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Breakout above happened as written in my weekly update. Only looking for longs now. Want 79 and then 80 before I expect a more complex pullback. quote from my weekly update: short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower. comment : Bulls just continued on Monday and my 75.1 target was easily passed through. That trade was good for 200+, hope you made some. We are now at a minor bear trend line around 77.6 and I’d be surprised if we can just melt through that as well. The 1h ema was not touched once since Thursday’s US session. Very strong move by the bulls and decent chances we see 79 this morning. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 75 - 79 bull case: Bulls did what I expected in my weekly outlook and their next targets above are 79 and then 80. I do think 80 can happen today or tomorrow. If bulls can break above current August high 78.99, bears will probably step aside enough for 80 to come fast. Invalidation is below 76. bear case: Bears did not want to fight this after their leg down and market move’s freely higher without any fight. News weren’t on their side either yesterday. Where could we expect a bigger pullback? 78 is a big maybe. 79/80 is where I expect it more but do not look for any fades until bears closed a bear below the 1h ema. You would be trying to short a strong bull trend and that’s mostly gambling. Invalidation is above 78. short term: Bullish for 78 and most likely 79/80 as long as we stay above the 1h 20ema. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Longing the breakout above 75.1 as I wrote in my weekly update. Was good for 200+.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Morning and I hope you are well. No update yesterday after hours since I was so sick I just had to sleep. That was the first miss since almost a year ago or 202 publishes if you will. Update would not have been any different since Globex did not move anything much. tl;dr Indexes - Most markets moved sideways so I will not pretend there is much value to extract out of the price action. We will have a bigger breakout soon and I have absolutely no idea to which side since I am not a fortune teller or a social media jack who posts pictures with a Lambo. They seem to be very sure of every move the market makes. You decide which is more reasonable. dax futures comment: Market is staying above 18600 but 18700 is resistance. Will probably see a breakout today or tomorrow. No deeper meaning in this sideways chop. I lean slightly bearish to get below 18600 again. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls are too weak to push above 18700 but keeping it above 18600 makes the market completely neutral. Bulls want to stay inside the bull channel which leads to 19000. Not much more to it. Play the range. Invalidation is below 18600. bear case: Bears also too weak to get below 18600 and currently the 1h 20ema is big support. Bears need a strong close below 18600 to have any argument on their side. Invalidation is above 18720. short term: Overall more bullish than bearish but the 100 point range is as neutral as it gets. I scalp and wait for the breakout. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Buying near 18600 since it was support many many times.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
WTI is less affected by conflictAs tensions in the Middle East continue to emerge, oil prices may continue to be supported by short-term geopolitical risks. However, this sudden impact is gradually easing. Next, crude oil traders should still pay attention to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision and further developments in the Middle East. Ceasefire talks in Cairo between Israel and Palestinian militia Hamas went ahead as scheduled on Sunday, showing relative calm after the exchange of fire. Israel eased security restrictions in the country on Sunday evening, hours after previously declaring a state of emergency and closing the main airport. Although the Middle East supplies about a third of the world's crude oil, oil market fundamentals have not been significantly affected by this conflict. Mainly for crude oil traders, they will still need to pay attention to the principle of supply and demand in the market "usually regulated by OPEC", and monetary policies related to USD when WTI crude oil is traded. priced in USD. Geopolitical risks and expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next month combined to push WTI crude oil prices to a recovery late last week. In a speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave the clearest signal yet that the job of containing inflation is complete, saying “the time has come for change.” policy", reinforcing market expectations of a possible interest rate cut next month. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL is still limited by pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and is still in a falling price channel. Although WTI crude oil has recovered significantly, current technical conditions are still more bearish than bullish, with a new bearish cycle possibly being ushered in as it falls. below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, and the latter target is 72.32 in the short term and above that is 71.68SUSD. Meanwhile, for WTI crude oil to have enough bullish conditions, it would at least need to break above the technical level that acts as horizontal resistance at 77.58USD confluence with the upper edge of the price channel, then the short-term target is around 78.11USD and more than 79.62USD. The relative strength index (RSI) is showing signs of bending after recovering to the 50% level and this should be seen as a signal that there is still further downside ahead. During the day, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil is more bearish and notable levels are listed below. Support: 74.71 – 72.32SUSD Resistance: 75.66 – 76.59 – 77.58USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bears answered last weeks question on Monday but bulls kept the market two sided and bears gave up at the double bottom below 72. Bulls are creating decent bull bars again and last time they did this we went above 78. Above 75 odds favor the bulls for more upside to at least 77 but we are still low enough for bears to come around and test 72 again. Leaning bullish if market stays above 74. Quote from last week: comment : Bull and bear legs alike get shorter, market is contracting further. Triangle is valid since 2022. We are in the last weeks of it. If we get a huge event where we see Oil prices skyrocketing over the next 3-4 months, you read it here first. Play the range is the name of the game. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 70-80 bull case: Bulls printed a nice double bottom around 71 and are on their way up again. They want at least 77.5 and test the minor bear trend line starting from 2024-07-18. The last two reversal from prices below 72 both went without any pullback on the daily chart so I expect this one to just go up as well. No side is currently fighting the other too much. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears got their early move below 74 and just went for 72 again. No bigger fight for 72 so bulls are doing the reversal again. There is a low chance that bears come around and want to keep it below the daily ema at 75 but i doubt it. If they do, best they can hope for is a test of 71.5 again. Above 75.1 I expect an easy and fast trade up to at least 77. Invalidation is above 75.1. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Again. What can you do. → Last Sunday we traded 75.54 and now we are at 74.83. Low of the week was 71.47 and my target was 71/72. Hope you made some. short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 70 and 80. No more updates until market makes higher highs or lower lows again. current swing trade: None chart update: None
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
1
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Bulls bought the first pullback and I expect bears to try again. Market went sideways which shows strength by the bulls to keep it above 2500. Next week will be important because so far the highest monthly close was 2472 and a monthly close above 2500 would confirm the breakout again. Bears need consecutive bear bars below 2500 and bulls a daily close above 2550. Neutral going into next week. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls got a new ath but the highest monthly close so far was 2473 and there is no reason to expect a huge breakout above 2550 with follow through. If it happens, hopp along but odds favor the bears for another reversal like so many times in the last 4 months. No matter how you interpret the patterns on the chart, all favor a reversal and betting on a breakout after 4 months of trading range price action is a losing strategy in the long run. I am neutral and wait for bears to show strength but will join the bulls on a strong breakout above 2550. comment : Did we learn anything from a sideways week? We have a bullish pattern and a technical textbook pullback a bit above the ema. Bulls bought it and that is bullish. But only a break above 2570 is confirmation. Resistance is always that until it breaks, no matter how strong you think the trend is/looks/feels and this trend inside a 5 month trading range is not strong so far. Bulls are trying the breakout and the monthly close will be the most important for them. If they manage their first close above 2500, it would be a confirmation and buy signal going into September. What could be a potential target above? Since the trading range was mostly between 2300 - 2500ish, we can do a measured move up and that would bring us to the ballpark around 2700. current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged key levels: 2400 - 2550 bull case: Bulls raised their odds of this breakout being real last week. Next week is their do or die moment for this. It’s either break above 2550 and get a daily close above or fail again and trade back down to the lower bull wedge or even 2300. I do think 2540-2570 is a dead zone for trading long. If we get near 2520-2530 I consider buying but not above. Odds currently favor the bulls slightly. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Nothing changed for the bears. Either stop the bulls below 2570 or give up for 2600 and potentially 2700 over the next weeks. Bears need a 1h close below 2500 badly. That’s it. If you are short Gold right now, don’t come to me hoping for bear porn. I’m long past that phase in Gold. Do I still think this is overvalued and can crash below 2000 again? Bet. Will this save your underwater shorts? Hell naw. Get out now or latest at 2571. Invalidation is above 2571. outlook last week: short term: Neutral until bears come around or strong break above 2550. If bears build good selling pressure, I want a retest of 2500 first and lower i look for 2470. → Last Sunday we traded 2537 and now we are at 2546. Bulls got above 2550 but big rejections only. Neutral outlook was perfect since we closed 9 points above last week. short term: Exactly the same as last week. Bears had a pullback and bulls bought it. Inherently bullish but only if bulls can break above 2570. Neutral until bears come around or strong break above 2570. If bears build good selling pressure, I want a retest of 2500 first and lower i look for 2470. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May current swing trade: None. chart update: Added bull wedge trend line and measured move target #1.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: 53 points to a new ath is a small spike at this point. Whenever a market is this close to an obvious magnet, it’s reasonable to assume that it will get there. Will it be a big difference if the high stays below 5700 or goes above 5721? Not really. You simply can not short this and put your stop a tick above the previous ath. Bulls are in control and until bears print consecutive bear bars below 5600, it stays that way. Quote from last week: comment : Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. comment : Bears produced the first bigger bear bar after almost 10% in 10 bars. It was also the first pullback (price goes below the previous bar low) in this bull trend inside the bigger trading range. As I wrote for dax, I can not be anything but neutral going into next week since we are at previous resistance after a very climactic move up. Bulls want a new ath and bears to keep it a lower high. Volume is picking up again and bears build some decent selling pressure on Thursday + Friday. On the 4h chart you can see 5 legs up without much of pullbacks. Will find out next week how many bulls are interested in buying above 5600. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls closed the bear gap and are free to print a new ath. Bears are not doing enough to make more bulls take profits, so naturally they keep on buying any small dip and pushing it higher. Technically we have two bull trend lines pointing to higher targets above 5721 with one even going to 5900-6000. Can this happen? For sure. After this climactic down than even more climactic up, everything is possible. Is it likely? No. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. They know the market is overdue for a bigger pullback again and they will add higher, even if we print a new ath. If they can keep this a lower high and print below 5600, I do think we could see more bulls covering their longs. For now bears can mostly hope for a sideways market and stopping the advance. On the monthly chart bears produced a decent doji in July and they want this months bar closing near 5500 to not generate a good buying signal for September. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. → Last Sunday we traded 5578 and now we are at 5652. 5600 was no bigger resistance. Bulls printed a green week but bears came around and starting making the market more two sided again. short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. I don’t think bears want July to close above 5600. medium-long term : Can’t be too bearish after the reversal but same as dax again. Even if we do a new ath, I expect at least 5200 to be hit again this year but probably 5000. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed bear gap and added the possible 5 wave series and a potential bigger two legged correction but that is pure speculation as of now.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [26 August - 30 August]This week, international OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase quite strongly from 2,485 USD/oz to 2,531 USD/oz. After that, the gold price dropped to 2,470 USD/oz, then increased to 2,518 USD/oz and closed at 2,512 USD/oz. Gold prices continued to rise sharply this week because FED Chairman Powell signaled his readiness to cut interest rates in the upcoming meetings at the Jackson Hole Conference. Mr. Powell said that it is time for interest rates to be adjusted downward to support economic recovery. Although Mr. Powell did not specify a specific timeline or scale of interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, he emphasized that FED officials are laying the foundation for looser monetary policy. In the context that the FED will certainly cut interest rates in the upcoming meeting, many experts believe that short-term gold prices may continue to increase even higher. However, it may be difficult for gold prices to avoid times when investors take profits, causing gold prices to have downward corrections. Next week, the gold market will focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) for July; GDP in the second quarter; Consumer confidence... In particular, PCE is expected to increase only 0.2%; GDP remains at 2.8% as initially forecast. If as predicted, these data will not have much impact on gold prices next week. 📌Technically, technical indicators are still showing an upward trend in gold prices in the short term. Accordingly, the important support level for gold prices next week is at 2,470 USD/oz. Meanwhile, if it exceeds 2,530 USD/oz, next week's gold price will widen its path towards the 2,590-2,600 USD/oz range. The trading plan for next week will be to sell around the 2590 mark and buy if the price drops to 2442. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.470USD Resistance: 2.600 – 2.530USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2441 - 2443⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2437
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered after adjustmentOANDA:XAUUSD spot has adjusted down below the original price mark of 2,500SUSD and is trying to recover. This trading day, investors will have new information from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, which is expected to cause a major fluctuation in the gold market. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday showed that the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of August 17 was higher than expected and previous figures. . Data from S&P Global showed business activity remained steady even as US manufacturing activity fell for a second straight month. US manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0 again in August; Services PMI increased to 55.2, exceeding expectations. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield in particular rising 6.5 basis points to 3.865%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the USD against six other currencies, rose and profit-taking could be the main reason gold prices fell below $2,500/ounce ahead of Trump's speech. Powell. Previously, the minutes of the final meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday unexpectedly showed that the "vast majority" of FOMC participants supported easing policy at the September meeting. if the data matches expectations. The minutes show that policymakers are increasingly convinced that inflation risks are tilted to the downside, while risks to achieving maximum employment have increased. The "Jackson Hole Symposium", the annual meeting of global central banks, will be held starting Friday and the market focus will shift to the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech Jerome Powell at today's meeting (Surday). Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole is expected to lay the foundation for monetary policy direction for the remainder of 2024. Today (Friday), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole. Traders need to pay close attention to this event, because it will bring much stronger volatility. In a context where the market is unpredictable and increases and decreases of 2-3% are no longer strange or rare, traders need to be prepared for scenarios of price movements of 2-3% in the short term. short time. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has corrected below its original price of $2,500, the downside momentum has been limited and recovered from the 0.618% trend-following Fibonacci extension above $2,484, continuing support from the support level of 2,484USD towards a short-term increase at 2,500USD. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still tends to increase in the short term, while the long-term trend is fixed by the price channel and medium-term support from EMA21. In the immediate future, the target will be 2,500 – 2,503 USD, the area of ​​​​the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. Once gold breaks the 0.786% Fibonacci level it will continue to qualify for a bullish outlook with the next target after that at around $2,531, more so than $2,544. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains unchanged with the main trend being bullish and notable points are listed as follows. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503 – 2,510USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2502 - 2500⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2506 →Take Profit 1 2495 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2490 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2461 - 2463⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2457 →Take Profit 1 2468 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2473
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
4
2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Strong day by the bears for most markets and on higher volume too. After climactic moves, many traders keep tight stops and won’t let the market run too much against them because they want to secure their profits. Does that mean the market is reversing? Probably not. But deep pullbacks are always possible. In trading rangs the daily 20ema and the 50% (midpoint of the range) are always magnets, so always mark them on your chart. For tomorrow I expect more volatility since we have BOJ Ueda + FED JPOW speaking. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Huge day for the bears by closing below 5600. I do think it would be fitting if we close the week with a huge bear reversal candle below 5550 or even 5500. Can we get there? Unlikely but not impossible. Could we also close above 5721? You bet. No one knows where we are going because market has moved in such extremes the past two weeks, that absolutely everything is possible tomorrow. Odds still somewhat favor the bulls to close the week above 5600 but just slightly. Daily ema is around 5500 and that are two good reasons for market to test that price. Anything above 5640 would surprise me tbh. current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls tried to fight it today but the down moves saw a big increase in volume and bulls could not keep the market above 5600. They need to stay above this price or risk much more downside because I do think many stops will be around 5580-5595 tomorrow. Their first target is a 15m bar close above the ema and then the 1h ema to turn the market neutral again. 50% pullback from today is 5625 and that is also a magnet for tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: Bears surprised me today because the strength of the selling was not expected. Market grinded higher first but since the US open we just saw big selling coming through and every rip was sold. If bears do not keep the momentum going tomorrow, they risk another reversal and potentially another meltup to a new ath but that will strongly depend on Jpow and Ueda and how the market will interpret their speeches. Can you forecast this? Don’t bother. Mark key levels on your chart and hop along on the breakout tomorrow. Invalidation is above 5670. short term: 5600 is neutral and I wait. Bears need follow through selling below 5580 and bulls a strong reversal. Above 5625 I will consider longs. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Sell US open. No reason not to and no reason to exit until 5600 where market stalled too much.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - Bears created a pullback but could not even touch 2500. It’s a little less bullish as of now because the bull trend line broke but market is still above 2500 and the daily 20ema so odds favor another the bulls. If bears create follow through below 2500, I turn bearish for 2450 or lower. comment: Neutral again at 2520 because we are right above the bull trend line from early August and near 2500, which is huge support for now. Odds favor the bulls to test the upper bear trend line around 2540 again. If bears manage to go into the weekend below 2500, this bull leg is most likely over again and we will test back to 2450 or lower. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2500 - 2570 bull case: Bulls still see this above 2500 and inside a trading range at the highs. They are trading above the daily ema and the bull trend line is still valid. I do think the bears will not fight them for 2500 on the first try, so odds favor the bulls to stay inside the current expanding triangle and test back to the upper trend line around 2540. A weekly close above 2540 would be max bullish. Invalidation is below 2490. bear case: Bears finally produced more selling pressure and closed at the lows. Whenever bears printed consecutive bear bars above 2500 over the past 4 months, market was not able to hold above and sold off again. Bears expecting this time to be the same, despite the new ath. They want a reversal to 2400 and their target for tomorrow is a close below 2500. Invalidation is above 2550. short term: Neutral between 2500-2520, bullish above and bearish below. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500 current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling below bar 8 was decent. Stop had to be above bar 3. Market held below the 1h ema and there was decent selling pressure before.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds