BTC - Lower Entry on my Previous Mega Short IdeaHere is details for a reentry on my short plan for Bitcoin.
All details and explanations in my previous posts.
Futures
GOLD stabilizes above EMA21 supportOANDA:XAUUSD market could see more volatility next week on news from the Federal Reserve and is expected to signal that it will not be ready to cut interest rates in June.
Although expectations of loosening policy by the US Federal Reserve are fading, gold prices have also increased about 17% since February this year.
Gold's strong performance is linked to central bank buying, and volatile geopolitical tensions.
New inflation data reinforces the view that high interest rates are here to stay for now. The Fed's preferred gauge of core inflation, U.S. PCE data rose 0.3% in March and rose 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month. Figures from the beginning of this year were also adjusted slightly upward.
Worrying inflation data for three straight months suggests progress towards the central bank's 2% target has stalled and suggests the first round of interest rate cuts will continue to be delayed. Investors are expecting one or two rate cuts this year starting in November, but concerns are growing that the Fed may not reduce borrowing costs by 2024.
Fed policy decisions and US nonfarm data will be the macro focus next week
Next Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its April jobs report. If U.S. nonfarm payroll growth slows significantly to below 200,000, that could trigger a sell off the US Dollar and cause an immediate positive reaction to gold prices.
If nonfarm payroll growth is stronger than expected, especially if wage inflation data is hot, that could increase market expectations that the Fed will not act in September and put gold on the back foot. under pressure to reduce prices.
Even if the data does not have a significant impact on expectations for a June rate cut, it could still weigh on the dollar if investors favor a policy change in September.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that the market expects the probability of the Fed keeping policy rates unchanged in September to be 42.6%.
Investors should also pay attention to other data including US ADP and the Fed's Monetary Policy Decision due on Wednesday, and Jobless Claims on Thursday.
Economic data to watch next week
Tuesday: US consumer confidence index
Wednesday: ADP nonfarm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, JOLTS vacancies, Fed monetary policy decision
Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims
Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (NDP), ISM Services PMI, US April Unemployment Rate
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has recovered after a period of sudden correction, taking support from the EMA21 level and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. Note to readers in last week's weekly issue and currently gold is also active at The position is quite positive, above the EMA21 and above the technical level of 2,322USD.
Maintaining activity above the EMA21 level opens up the possibility of gold continuing to recover with last week's target at $2,365 still not achieved.
Currently, the gold price still has all the technical conditions for a possible increase in price with main support at EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. However, gold will also face the possibility of further declines once it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, the downside target level could then reach the upper edge of the price channel, more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, if long, open long positions should be protected behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level.
Gold has a technical outlook that favors the possibility of an increase in gold prices. The technical levels will be noted and listed as follows.
Support: 2,322 – 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD
Resistance: 2,345 – 2,365USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2361 - 2359
⚰️SL: 2365
⬆️TP1: 2354
⬆️TP2: 2349
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2304 - 2306
⚰️SL: 2300
⬆️TP1: 2311
⬆️TP2: 2316
Trading Plan for Friday, May 3rd, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 3rd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bulls maintaining a tentative lead ahead of multiple high-impact market events (Apple Earnings and Jobs Report). Expect extreme volatility and plan accordingly.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5068 (major), 5054 (major trendline - note this level rises daily)
Major Supports: 5028 (major), 5001 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5081 (major), 5102 (major), 5116 (major), 5136 (major)
Major Resistances: 5155-58 (major), 5191 (major), 5208 (major)
Trading Strategy
Earnings and Jobs Volatility: Be prepared for unpredictable, potentially violent price swings triggered by the Apple earnings release (4:30 PM EST) and the jobs report (8:30 AM EST). Prioritize reacting to price action over anticipating.
Capital Preservation: Adopt a cautious approach and consider reducing position sizes or even sitting out the immediate volatility. Focus on protecting your gains from today's squeeze.
Long Opportunities: Due to the heightened risk, avoid direct bids at support. Prioritize failed breakdowns with flushes and reclaims for safer long entries. In the event of a deep flush, consider knife-catches at major supports (5028, 5001).
Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5116 and 5136 for shorts, but only if markets exhibit a strong negative reaction to earnings or positive jobs data. Proceed with extreme caution.
Focus on Levels: Use the provided support and resistance levels to guide your decisions, regardless of the volatility. Pay close attention to failed breakdowns and setups, as they will be the most reliable in this environment.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5054-50 support zone remains crucial.
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5081 resistance zone after any potential sell-off on events, working back towards 5116, then 5136 for further confirmation and a potential sustained breakout.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5054-50 initiates the downside move. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns for potential short entries. Be mindful of whipsaws and traps around major events.
News: Top Stories for May 3rd, 2024
Impact of Monetary Policies:
U.S. Monetary Policy and Global Markets: Contractionary policy affects global financial conditions through various channels.
Responses to U.S. Policy Shifts: Tightening policy induces global deleveraging and affects asset prices and credit flows.
Emerging Markets' Sensitivity: EMs experience volatility and capital outflows due to U.S. policy changes.
Transmission Mechanisms: Policy changes influence dollar-denominated assets, global credit conditions, and bank behavior.
Long-Term Implications:
Global Trade Outlook: Modest rebound in 2024 challenged by interest rates, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions.
Manufacturing Sector Performance: Continued uncertainty with challenges like labor shortages and supply chain disruptions.
Advances in Digital Manufacturing: Adoption of digital twins and smart tech enhances operational efficiencies.
Geopolitical Impact on Trade: Persistent tensions disrupt global trade, highlighting vulnerability of supply chains to political instability.
Trading Plan for Thursday, May 2nd, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, May 2nd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls holding a precarious position at a critical support level.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5048-50 (major - note that this trendline rises daily), 5032, 5028 (major)
Major Supports: 5010 (major), 4968 (major), 4938-42 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5077-82 (major), 5102 (major), 5126 (major), 5136 (major)
Major Resistances: 5155 (major), 5197-5202 (major), 5246-50 (major)
Trading Strategy
Critical Support Test: Vigilantly monitor the critical 5048-50 support zone for signs of breakdown or sustained defense.
Long Opportunities: Due to heightened volatility, avoid direct bids at support. Instead, prioritize failed breakdowns with flushes and reclaims for safer long entries, potentially around 5032 or 5028. In the event of a deep flush, consider knife-catches at major supports (5010, 4968, 4938-42).
Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5126 and 5136 for shorts, but only if a strong bearish reaction to FOMC is evident. Proceed with caution.
Risk Management: Maintain disciplined risk management and tighter stops in this volatile period.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5048-50 support zone is crucial. A failed breakdown with a quick reclaim above 5032-28 could trigger a move higher.
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push back to 5077-82, with a potential retest of that resistance, then onward to the 5126-36 zone for further confirmation and potential breakout.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5048-50 followed by a deeper dip through 5028 initiates the downside move. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns for potential short entries.
News: Top Stories for May 2nd, 2024
Analysis of Stock Market Trends:
U.S. Market Performance: Mixed responses post-Fed's rate decision, with slight Dow increase and S&P, Nasdaq declines.
Interest Rates and Inflation Concerns: Persistent inflation shapes Fed policies, influencing market dynamics.
Sector-Specific Trends: Tech sector drives market, but faces valuation challenges and regulatory scrutiny.
Global Market Influences: European markets resilient; contrasting approaches to interest rates and inflation with the U.S.
Investment Strategies:
Federal Funds Rate Stability: Fed maintains high rate amid inflation concerns, impacting market expectations.
Inflation Trends and Policy: Slow decrease in inflation complicates rate cuts, influencing investment decisions.
Global Impact: Fed's policies affect global markets, especially in emerging economies and those tied to U.S. standards.
Long-term Considerations:
Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts threaten global supplies; Middle East escalation could disrupt oil production.
Economic Slowdown: China's slowdown poses risks globally, impacting markets and economic stability.
Inflation and Interest Rates: Central banks balance inflation control without hindering growth, posing risks.
Technological Transformations: Rapid tech changes create opportunities and risks, transforming labor markets.
Environmental Risks: Growing environmental concerns pose economic consequences, impacting industries.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 4.28 - 5.03Last Week :
Last week Globex opened inside the Value of 5086 - 4925 Range and right away found buying that started pushing us towards VAH. RTH gave us a push out of Value and holds above brought in more buyers to give us pushes to the Edge and attempts at Previous Ranges VAL/Value area but that move was sold back down towards the Edge and back under 5086 brought in the weakness needed to make a push back inside lower range towards VAH which looked promising for continuation since we were under Supply and under Settlement ranges but instead we failed to accept in Value pushed back to the Edge and end of day Spike pushed us over VAL where we spent Friday filling out that area of singles over VAL in a tighter distribution Range after failing to get back under 5112.05 - 07.50.
This Week :
Going into this week we have retail month end to finish up the month, we have new month starting and lots of data dropping this week as well. Our question this week is will we find acceptance back in this 5227 - 5066 Ranges Value ? are there actually bigger buyers in that Spike base to keep us up and start balancing here and continue filling out this VAL / Mean / VAH area ? Area over 5144 still has Single Prints above which are Supply and Volume trapped above them. Or maybe more selling will come in to give moves back under VAL to fill out that Spike Base to see if there are still buyers in that Edge or if we will start working our way under it towards the Value where we were able to transact through the whole thing and put in Time and Volume ?
Friday we tried to make a push over 5144 - 40.25 which was 5159 - 5107 Intrarange Resistance but failed the few attempts and stayed withing the ranges Mean of 5144 - 5125.
If we are to accept in this range and 5112.50 - 07.50 will keep acting as support then we can look to keep trading this current Intraday range of 5159 - 5107 and IF we continue holding over 5129 - 25 we could eventually get enough buying to try and fill out those single prints up to the Key Resistance. We would need to get through 5159.25 - 54.25 to see any higher prices with moves towards above VAH.
If the buying here is not strong and we just continue building up Supply around this current mean and can't fill the single prints up to the Key Resistance above or fill but fail to accept over then we can look for a return back towards the VAL and see a test of that 5112.50 - 07.50 area, if buying at that Spike base doesn't hold then we can see a move back towards the Edge to fill that Spike Base out and test the Edge again to see if there is still buying or if we will get back under the Edge and head for Previous Value.
With lots of news and data it could be a tricky week, Friday ended very slow after volatile action, will the slow theme continue this week ? If so need to be very patient letting things properly set up and show Failures or strength at levels before trying to catch the moves. Market is trying to find a range to start balancing in, I feel like 5086 - 4925 is the HTF Range market wants to be in and our destination is still lower but how fast or slow it will get moving there is the question and for now we are over the Edge which is telling us otherwise while we are inside 5182 - 15 Value... but just something to keep in mind if we don't find acceptance needed in here.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5159.25 - 5107.50
Key Levels for Continuation out 5159.25 - 54.25 // 5112.50 - 07.50
Means 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25
If Accept Below Targets Spike Base and move back to Edge
Means 5095.50 - 92.50 // 5081 - 77.75
Key Area 5065.75 - 60.75
If holds current range and accepts over Key Resistance, above range is 5204.25 - 5154.25
Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50
Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75
IF Find ourself back under 5086 - 66 Edge watch out for continuation towards VAH / Mean and VAL of 5086 - 4925 Range.
GDP and PCE will be two important data for GOLD price trendsThe US Dollar Index is entering accumulation and recovering after 2 days of decline, making gold priced in US Dollars less attractive thanks to direct correlation.
The near-term appeal of the precious metal remains weak as tensions in the Middle East ease and safe-haven demand weakens.
The gold market has been less affected by the escalating conflict in the Middle East as developments have cooled down. What the market is interested in as well as the current trading question is whether this correction in gold prices will create a long-term downtrend, or simply a short-term decline.
Directions and clues about the answer keep the market focused on the Fed and economic data. If inflation data continues to show stubborn, hot inflation could push the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. Originally, the interest rate cut time had been pushed back by the market to September, previously expected to be June. This is not beneficial for gold, an asset that does not yield any yield.
First-quarter GDP and core inflation will provide additional data on when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.
US gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released on (today) Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report will be released on Friday.
US core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to rise at a solid 0.3%, with the annual index falling to 2.6% from 2.8% in the month Two. Gold prices could face a sharp sell-off if core inflation data comes in higher than expected.
Currently, traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates starting at its September meeting. Further signs of sustained price pressure will allow the Fed to maintain its stance of keeping interest rates on hold. at current levels over the long term. Theoretically, this scenario bodes well for the US dollar and US bond yields, while reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is still struggling to maintain activity above the EMA21 level, and despite the recovery from the 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284 USD support levels presented to readers in previous issues, the The recovery levels were quickly defeated and entered a state of accumulation.
Temporarily, the market has not shown any signs of sudden changes to open a new trend structure, while technical conditions are still supporting the possibility of price increases with support from EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.236. % as key support levels.
If gold holds above $2,322 it will be a positive and the target level is then aimed at $2,334, more so than $2,365.
On the other hand, a further bearish cycle will be unleashed once gold sells off below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, so protection levels for open long positions should be protected below the 0.236% Fibonacci level. %.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains supportive of upside with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD
Resistance: 2,322 – 2,334 – 2,365USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2342 - 2340
⚰️SL: 2346
⬆️TP1: 2335
⬆️TP2: 2330
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2267 - 2269
⚰️SL: 2263
⬆️TP1: 2274
⬆️TP2: 2279
The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, GOLD trend conditionsUS GDP data for the first quarter of 2024 was lower than expected, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve may reduce borrowing costs. However, inflation has risen sharply over the same period, which will delay the Fed's interest rate cuts.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, below forecasts. 2.4% growth by economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was adjusted from 3.4% to 3.9%. Other data showed that the initial value of the US core PCE price index in the first quarter after seasonal adjustment was 3.7%, the estimate was 3.4% and the previous value was 2 .0%.
The geopolitical situation also supports gold prices. The Israel Public Broadcasting Corporation reported on April 25 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved a plan to conduct ground operations in the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.
In addition, after a two-week lull, Houthi forces launched attacks on US cargo ships and naval vessels. -According to Zerohedg-
For gold, this price gain comes after a nearly 3% drop this week as markets downgraded assessments of rising tensions in the Middle East.
Fed officials last week including Chairman Jerome Powell agreed, saying: "Recent data shows no further progress in inflation this year."
Currently, as tensions in the Middle East gradually ease, safe-haven demand for gold remains weak in the short term.
Looking ahead, the market will focus on March's core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data, which will guide the next move of gold prices.
If PCE inflation is higher than expected, it will signal pressure on gold prices and it is possible that gold will continue to sell off, while if PCE inflation continues to shrink, lower will be an important support for gold. with gold prices because it helps the case of the Fed cutting interest rates soon become more open.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to recover from the key support area that readers noticed throughout recent publications with key support from the EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level.
The 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284 USD support levels produced bullish corrections and currently the price action position is also more positive for gold prices with price activity above EMA21 and the 2,322 USD technical point. However, for gold to continue to rise further it needs to break the $2,334 technical level to operate above this level and then target around $2,365, which is also the target bullish recovery level. weekly attention in weekly issue publication.
Gold can only become more negative if it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, the downside could then reach the upper channel edge and more to the 0.382% Fibonacci level, so open long positions should be protection behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level and if this level is broken it means losing ground to buy.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still tilted towards the possibility of price increases with the following technical levels being noticed again.
Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD
Resistance: 2,334 – 2,365USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2349 - 2347
⚰️SL: 2353
⬆️TP1: 2342
⬆️TP2: 2337
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301
⚰️SL: 2295
⬆️TP1: 2306
⬆️TP2: 2311
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bearish Outlook & Breakout 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil formed a huge head and shoulders pattern on a daily.
With the release of the yesterday's fundamentals, the market dropped
and sharply violated its neckline and a solid rising trend line.
2 broken structures compose the expanding supply zone.
I will look for shorting from there,
anticipating a bearish continuation at least to 77.8 support.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
$USO Oil targets hit. Sideways plus downside, maybe two weeks Breakout was a success and we saw $80s for a good moment there. Plenty of time to have taken any profit on any positions I had. The pullback in between also happened according to the bar chart. Let’s see if the rest of my pattern can make its way through into a plummet for late May.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 1st, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 1st, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with the potential for sharp swings amplified by the FOMC announcement. Increased caution and focus on capital preservation are paramount.
Key Supports
Major Supports: 5060 (major), 5043-47 (major), 5030-32 (major), 5000 (major)
Additional Supports: 4976 (major), 4938-41 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5066, 5077-82 (major), 5102 (major), 5144 (major)
Major Resistances: 5171 (major), 5200 (major), 5246-50 (major)
Trading Strategy
FOMC Volatility: Expect unpredictable price swings driven by reactions to the FOMC interest rate decision and related news.
Prioritize Capital Preservation: Focus on protecting your account rather than chasing aggressive moves. Adapt position sizing and risk management strategies accordingly.
Long Opportunities: Due to FOMC, direct bids are high risk. Focus on failed breakdowns for better risk/reward. Potentially long at major support levels after flushes and reclaims (5043-47, 5030-32).
Short Opportunities: Due to FOMC, direct shorts are also high risk. Watch for strong bounces and failed breakdowns. Consider shorts at key resistance levels only if the reaction to FOMC is definitively bearish. Proceed with extreme caution.
Level-to-Level Trading: Employ level-to-level scalping techniques and profit-taking, navigating this volatile environment with tighter stops.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5043-47 support zone is crucial for bulls, with 5030-32 as the absolute minimum. Reclaiming resistances like 5066 could indicate buyer strength.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5030, intensified by negative FOMC news, signals a downside move. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns for potential shorts.
News: Top Stories for May 1st, 2024
Global Economic Outlook
Mature economies are stabilizing with a slight growth uptick projected for 2024 and 2025.
Emerging economies maintain stability with growth projections at 4.3% for both 2024 and 2025.
Regional Trends
Asia, including China, anticipates a slowdown, while Latin America expects gradual growth increases.
Inflation and Monetary Policies
Global inflation is expected to decrease, reflecting central bank rate hikes for price stability and growth support.
Geopolitical Impacts
Populist policies and recent elections in the US and EU pose financial policy and market stability challenges.
Transition to a New Monetary Order impacts interest rates, asset values, and lending environments globally.
EU regulatory changes affect financial markets and trading regulations, emphasizing compliance.
Digital Transformation
Focus on digital assets and CBDCs outside the US signals shifts in financial transactions and regulations.
Blockchain technology enhances financial security and transparency, notably in DeFi platforms.
AI integration reshapes financial services, optimizing operations and decision-making processes.
Digital and open banking experiences exponential growth, fostering fintech innovations and collaborations.
RegTech solutions powered by AI help firms manage regulatory obligations efficiently across jurisdictions.
Crude Oil WTI - Long Trade IdeaHello hello,
My bias is still long. I will link that analysis to this one. So, I am looking for a continuation to the upside.
At the moment, everything looks good for a continuation to the upside. The Monthly candle closed above the annotated Monthly SIBI, and a new Monthly BISI was created. What i'm looking now is for price to come into any of those areas, but it will likely enter both. I have annotated 2 POIs for a trade on the Daily timeframes. My "R2F" and "Megaphone" setups are ready to go.
The stoplosses illustrated are standard, so the safest thing to do is to wait for confirmation before solidifying a stoploss. The Monthly candle only JUST opened, and as we know the wicks can paint outside of the lines.
Anyway, I'm looking forward to see how this pans out. I don't usually trade Oil, but futures are generally cleaner than some Forex pairs like USDJPY.
- R2F
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 30th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 30th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, within a consolidation period likely followed by a breakout. Exercise caution and patience with trades.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5127-30, 5121 (major), 5108
Major Supports: 5083 (major), 5067 (major), 5039 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5136, 5150-55 (major), 5176 (major), 5191 (major)
Major Resistances: 5205-5208 (major), 5230, 5246 (major), 5270-75 (major)
Trading Strategy
Consolidation Breakout: Anticipate a breakout from the current 5120-5155 consolidation range. Plan accordingly for both bull and bear breakout scenarios.
Long Opportunities: Prioritize failed breakdowns at 5121 for potential long entries. Focus on bids within the current range and knife-catches on major supports if deep flushes occur (5067, 5039).
Short Opportunities: Due to the potential for a strong breakout, approach shorts cautiously. The 5176 and 5191 levels offer shorting opportunities, but with increased risk in the bullish environment. Utilize level-to-level profit-taking.
Risk Management: Implement disciplined risk management in this potentially volatile period.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5120 support within the current consolidation range is crucial for bulls.
Breakout and Retest: Look for an upside breakout from the 5155 resistance area, followed by a successful retest for further confirmation.
Targeting Higher Levels: A breakout could trigger an upward move, focusing on targets at 5176, potentially extending to 5191.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5121 signals a downward move. Watch for a bounce/failed breakdown as an entry point for a short position, with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 30th, 2024
Market Dynamics and Corporate Earnings
Global Activity: High activity with 1,300 company earnings reports expected; Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting closely watched for rate decision insights.
Sector Highlights: Tech sector leads with major gains by Nvidia and Super Micro; Financials gain on rate cut hopes; Real Estate and Energy sectors lag.
Economic Indicators and Central Bank Decisions
FOMC Meeting: Coming up on 5/1
Jobs Data: Upcoming release expected to influence Fed's future decisions, especially on inflation control.
International Markets
Asian Markets: Mixed responses with Japan's Nikkei up and Shanghai Composite down.
European Central Bank: Anticipated to follow Fed with potential rate cuts amid inflation challenges.
Analysts' Projections and Market Sentiment
Future Rate Cuts: Initially expected in mid-2024, now possibly delayed due to persistent high inflation.
Investor Outlook: Cautiously optimistic but prepared for potential volatility due to uncertain monetary policy outcomes.
GOLD recovers from key support areaOANDA:XAUUSD stabilized after hitting a more than two-week low as concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East subsided, while investors await key economic data to further clarify the timing of US interest rate cuts. America.
Israel stepped up its attacks on the Gaza Strip, its worst shelling in weeks, but fears of a wider conflict eased after Iran said last week it had no plans to retaliate for the attack. apparent Israeli drone strike, financial markets showed signs of increased risk appetite and sold off safe-haven assets.
Markets are also paying attention to signals from the United States, with US inflation data and a Federal Reserve statement suggesting that there may not be an interest rate cut in June.
Recent comments from Fed officials suggest there is no need to cut interest rates immediately, reducing the appeal of zero-coupon gold. Markets now expect the Fed's first rate cut will most likely come in September.
Markets will closely monitor US GDP data on Thursday and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data on Friday for further insight into the US economy and timing.
In previous trading, the S&P Global PMI was weaker than expected, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates.
This month, the manufacturing PMI index fell from 51.9 to 49.9. On the other hand, both the services and composite numbers fell to 50.9 from 51.7 and 52.1.
According to the US Department of Commerce, other data for new home sales increased the most in six months, as building permits remained at a narrow level despite an upward revision of -3.7%. from -4.3%.
The data helps gold prices recover but in general PMI data is not a data that can be used to guide the market so it will only work in the short term.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
After gold fell sharply and gained support from an important technical area for a medium-term uptrend sent to readers throughout the publication at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and EMA21, it had the most recovery. stable and currently trying to hold above the $2,322 level.
$2,322 is also a key technical level and if gold holds above it will likely continue to recover towards another key technical level of $2,365.
Currently, technically speaking, gold still has all positive conditions with a medium-term trend from EMA21 and a long-term trend from the price channel. Meanwhile, the negative (bearish) case could widen further if the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level is broken below and the target level then targets the upper edge of the price channel and beyond the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. . This means the protection levels for open long positions should be placed just behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD
Resistance: 2,334 – 2,365USD
🚂 Bitcoin "Bitcoin represents not just the future of money, but the future of digital asset management, a secure payments system, and decentralized finance."
Trading Plan for Monday, April 29th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 29th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, following a multi-day rally. However, proceed with caution as a period of price discovery and more complex action is likely after the strong movement.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5127 (major), 5117, 5102 (major), 5089 (major), 5082
Major Supports: 5068-72 (major), 5043 (major), 5034 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5150 (major), 5168-5171 (major), 5185 (major)
Major Resistances: 5206-5208 (major), 5230, 5245 (major)
Trading Strategy
Consolidation Anticipated: Expect a period of consolidation and complex price action after the recent surge. Overtrading can lead to losses.
Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5127 or 5102 as potential long entry points. Prioritize bids within the current range for a cautious approach.
Short Opportunities: Target the 5185 level (resistance of the downtrend channel) for possible short positions. Consider level-to-level profit-taking within the range.
Risk Management: Maintain disciplined risk management in this potentially volatile environment.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the 5127 or 5102 major supports is crucial for bulls to maintain control.
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5150/5168-71 zones for a potential run to the next major target, 5185.
Adding on Strength: In an ultra-bull case, look for bull flagging above 5127 to add exposure in anticipation of an upward move.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5102 could trigger a deeper retracement. True bear case resumes with a break below 5033. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 29th, 2024
Equity Market Overview
Global Performance: S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose over 10% in Q1 2024; European and Asian indices also hit highs.
Sector Trends: AI boom fuels tech sector gains; value stocks participate more in market rallies.
Bond Market Dynamics
Interest Rates: Delayed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve impacting bond yields.
Performance: High yield bonds outperforming investment-grade due to favorable risk-return amidst volatile rates.
Key Economic Indicators
Inflation and Sentiment: Persistent inflation concerns; consumer sentiment improves slightly.
GDP and Employment: Strong GDP growth and employment figures support bullish equity market sentiment.
Market Outlook and Investor Sentiment
Short-Term: Continued growth expected, but potential for increased volatility.
Long-Term: Earnings growth modest in sectors like IT, significant in "Magnificent 7" companies.
Federal Reserve Policy and Market Outlook
Fed Stance: Maintains rates; cautious on inflation.
Market Impact: S&P 500's performance influenced by rate cut expectations; market may face limited growth post-rate cuts.
Middle East has few new points, GOLD adjustsDuring the Asian session on Monday (April 22), spot gold had a gap and opened lower, falling to a low of $2,370/ounce as of press time. Gold is mainly under pressure because tensions around Israel and Iran appear to have cooled, which has eased risk aversion, thus putting pressure on gold prices.
On April 19 local time, Israeli Army Radio said Israeli security officials confirmed that Israel had launched an attack on Iran.
Iranian state television on April 19 confirmed that an air defense system specifically designed to intercept drones east of Isfahan, Iran, intercepted three small drones that day.
According to local military officials in Isfahan, this interception did not cause any casualties or damage.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters on January 19 that reports of Israeli attacks on targets in Iran had not yet been confirmed and that Iran had no immediate plans to retaliate against Israel.
According to the report, the above mentioned senior Iranian officials also expressed doubts about whether Israel was responsible. Iran: “Foreign sources about the incident have not yet been confirmed. We have not suffered any external attacks and discussions on this issue are more about infiltration than attack.”
According to Reuters, Israeli leaders and the military remained silent. Iranian media's reaction to the attack was also silent.
There are no new points in the development of geopolitical conflicts, all attacks are just in the media "literally called gangsters". There are no new points and no risk of escalation. Gold will be under selling pressure because it is considered a safe haven asset during market periods with many risks and especially geopolitical risks.
On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data. If US GDP data is stronger than expected, the US dollar could hold its ground and put pressure on gold.
Surveys show that the initial quarterly real GDP rate in the United States in the first quarter is expected to increase 2.1%.
According to CME Group's "FedWatch" tool, there is a less than 20% chance that the Fed will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points in June.
On Friday, the US will release data on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
The core U.S. PCE price index in March is expected to rise at an annual rate of 2.6%, compared with a 2.5% gain in February.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold dropped significantly this morning, it again received support from the technical level of $2,365. Note to readers in the previous issue and was limited by this level. .
Temporarily, gold still has enough conditions to increase in price technically as the short-term uptrend remains stable with the price channel and support level at the technical point of 2,365 USD. Maintaining above 2,365 USD gives gold the ability to retest the 1% Fibonacci level at 2,382 USD.
However, a break below $2,365 would open the door for a broader bearish correction with the target level then likely to be the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.
Support: 2,336USD
Resistance: 2,358 – 2,382 – 2,400 – 2,417 – 2,431USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2414 - 2412
⚰️SL: 2418
⬆️TP1: 2407
⬆️TP2: 2402
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2335 - 2337
⚰️SL: 2331
⬆️TP1: 2342
⬆️TP2: 2347
Risks cool down, GOLD is sold off to a critical pointOANDA:XAUUSD have fallen sharply from recent highs due to the impact of reduced geopolitical risks and a stronger US Dollar. Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, have maintained a hawkish stance on interest rates, which has weighed on gold prices. Sentiment has changed as expectations for a Fed rate cut were revised to a potentially longer than previously expected June date.
Iran downplayed the retaliatory Israeli drone strike on April 19, which was previously seen as an escalation of the conflict.
Federal Reserve officials have made hawkish comments recently. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a lack of progress in fighting inflation is the reason interest rates must stay high for longer.
Chicago Fed President Goolsby also agreed with Powell. Goolsby said progress on disinflation had "stalled".
Notably, Goolsby is one of the most dovish members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Investors now await the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report on Friday for further direction on the outlook for US interest rate cuts.
In fact, in recent times, gold has been deeply affected by major and sudden events. The media war in the Middle East has caused gold to increase sharply followed by news that suddenly cooled the conflict.
Sticking to a rigid trend is a mistake that takes a lot of time to correct. There are some people who have won by following the market risk and making purchases and then receiving certain profits. But when the risk suddenly disappears, not reacting in time or knowing but not accepting the change is a huge mistake that brings heavy losses.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has broken out of a short-term downtrend after breaking below the $2,365 level noted in the weekly edition and is now trading at a very important support area for the uptrend. medium term while maintaining price activity above EMA21.
Meanwhile, if the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level continues to be broken below gold will continue to be at risk of further declines with the target level then at the upper edge of the price channel and more than the 0.328% Fibonacci level. This means if open long positions are taken they need to be protected behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level.
During the day, gold is expected to recover slightly but is not yet qualified for a strong price increase with notable technical levels as follows.
Support: 2,284USD
Resistance: 2,325 – 2,305USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2364 - 2362
⚰️SL: 2368
⬆️TP1: 2357
⬆️TP2: 2352
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2282 - 2284
⚰️SL: 2279
⬆️TP1: 2289
⬆️TP2: 2294
i like a neutral set up leaning buy into mondayfutures have reclaimed some ground at the end of the trading week. i feel good about leaning buy towards the start of next week, as long as were holding a decent level according to this market structure/value area and volume range.
this ai strategy shows that the price is supportive of extending its gains if we hold this momentum to the upside.
Trading Plan for Friday, April 26th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 26th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls maintaining short-term control but facing the after-hours earnings event, which could bring sudden volatility.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5067, 5058 (major), 5048
Major Supports: 5036-33 (major), 5010 (major), 4996-5000 (major), 4935-40 (major), 4904-08 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5080-82 (major), 5092 (major), 5108 (major), 5126-29 (major), 5145-50 (major), 5177-81 (major)
Major Resistances: 5222, 5243-46 (major), 5272 (major)
Trading Strategy
Earnings Volatility: Be prepared for unpredictable price action and adjust your strategy in real-time.
Trading the Range: Expect price to play within the broad 5036-5126 range. Exercise caution and consider bids/shorts within the range rather than chasing direction.
Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5067 or 5058 after earnings. Focus on bids cautiously within the range, prioritizing the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs at major levels.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5126-29, 5145-50, or the major 5177-81 zone if reached. Given earnings, approach shorts very cautiously.
Profit-Taking: Use level-to-level profit-taking on any position taken, given the increased volatility risk.
Bull Case
Holding Support: Defending the current 5036-33 major support is critical.
Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5108 zone for a potential run to the next major target areas of 5126-29 and 5145-50.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5036 triggers the downside move. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for April 26th, 2024
Economic Environment
March PCE inflation report and its impact on the Fed's policy decisions.
Apollo Global's acquisition of US Silica and implications for the materials sector.
Stock Market Updates
Mixed signals from global markets amidst geopolitical tensions.
Bank of Japan's interest rate policy.
Global Market News
Market response to various corporate earnings and announcements.
Additional Market News
Bond market dynamics and potential interest rate cuts.
Gold's performance and investment implications.
Currency market updates and the impact of the Bank of Japan's actions.
Additional Market Insights and News
Economic Indicators and Outlook
US GDP and Economic Growth: Analysis of the latest GDP report and its implications for growth trends.
Corporate Earnings Outlook: Forecasts for 2024 and sector-specific performance expectations.
Inflation and Interest Rates: Understanding the relationship between inflation, Fed policy, and corporate earnings.
Labor Market Dynamics: Assessing the health of the labor market and its impact on consumer spending and corporate profitability.
Technological Advancements and Market Shifts
Generative AI and Business Transformation: How is GenAI impacting decision-making and efficiencies in various industries.
Quantum Computing and Competitive Edge: Exploring the potential of quantum computing in various sectors and its implications for competitive advantage.
Sustainable Technology Initiatives: The increasing focus on green technologies and the integration of sustainability with innovation.
Industry Cloud Platforms (ICPs): Examining the adoption of ICPs and their role in accelerating digital transformation.
Reminder: The after-hours earnings events introduce major volatility risk. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 4.21 - 4.26Last Week :
Last week Globex opened and pushed out of Value of 5227 - 5066 Range, by RTH Open we were able to make a push over 5207.50 the Edge low but we needed acceptance over 5207 - 04 area and instead selling came in which took us through the Mean and right through VAL of that Range without any buyers being at VAL, instead we got covering and buying under Value which gave us the consolidation between the bottom Edge and VAL of that Range until Mid Week. After shorts were done covering and no stronger buying came in to push us back inside Value we continued for the lower Stops through the 5086 - 66 Edge and eventually made a move from the Edge to VAH, Mean and VAL of the lower Range.
This time around we found buying at VAL of the range and we finished Friday with a pulled back to VAH, push above Value and saw selling come in to bring the price back inside Value and close at the Mean of the range, this was perfect scenario to end the week as we know markets like to find areas to balance in and closing inside Value is signaling potential balance.
This Week :
Going into this week we have now accepted in this 5086 - 4925 Range, Month End is upon us, and we have our Settlement Ranges and Supply above VAH and above 5086 - 66 Edge.
Can the market continue lower ? Yes. Can the market get a big bounce and go back over 5050 - 60 - 80s? Sure it's possible. Anything can happen but for now to keep us grounded we have few things that the structure is showing us.
We can clearly see Supply and Sellers above VAH, we can see that around VAL and under Value we have buying or at least SIZE short covering which has and can keep us up, if we didn't have that then Friday we would have kept going and taken that VAL and ON Low which we created on the scary Thursday flush. Of course doesn't mean covering will still be there this week and that sellers will still be over VAH but until it shows us otherwise we can't force for big continuations under Value or hope for big bounces over 5050 areas. One of the scenarios to look for after big moves up and down like we had is for market to find some balance, could this be the Range we will do it in ? If that will be the case then we can spend quite a bit of time around this 5086 - 4925 Range until we see clear moves and acceptances over/under it.
If this will be the case we will look to spend most of our time trading around Value of this Range and pushes outside of Value to find their way back in. This could be the case for more than just this week but for now we will play it week at the time because who knows. We will want to focus mostly on 5066 - 5013 // 5019 - 4967 and 4972 - 20 Intraday Ranges.
Trading level to level catching 10-15 point moves between them is ideal if we start balancing in Value because that tells us we have buyers and sellers, might need to be patient letting the moves properly set up as the volatility has been pretty crazy recently, not a time to be a hero forcing for big moves in my opinion.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5019 - 4967
Key Resistance 5019 - 13.75
Means 5001.75 - 4997.75 // 4988.25 - 84.25
Key Support 4972 - 67
IF Accept Under 4972 - 67
Means 4955.75 - 4952.50 // 4940.50 - 37.75
Key Support and Edge Low 4925.25 - 20
IF Accept Over 5019 - 13.75
Means 5034 - 31 // 5048.75 - 45.75
Key Resistance and Bottom of top Edge 5066.50 - 60.75
EURUSD is at risk after information is revealed about FOMC, SNBOANDA:EURUSD NEWS AND ANALYSIS
- ECB officials eye June meeting for first rate cut, SNB delivers a surprise cut
- Dollar drop appears short-lived as EUR/USD heeds resistance
ECB OFFICIALS EYE JUNE MEETING FOR FIRST RATE CUT, SNB DELIVERS A SURPRISE CUT
Despite the EU and US having different growth prospects, the ECB remains cautious about cutting rates. They are eyeing up the June meeting as significant. Wage growth has been a focus, but it seems the ECB is running out of reasons to delay rate cuts. Today, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25 bps to normalize monetary policy. This decision was prompted by challenges in the external environment, the appreciation of the Swiss Franc, and inflation below two percent expected to continue next year and in 2026.
DOLLAR DROP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS OANDA:EURUSD HEEDS RESISTANCE
Yesterday's dovish Fed announcement led to a decline in expectations of a 25 basis point hike, causing the dollar to drop. As a result, EUR/USD saw gains and tested resistance levels at 1.0942 and 1.0960, which correspond to Fibonacci retracements from the recent decline. The 50 and 200-day simple moving averages and the support level at 1.0830 are important factors to consider.
EURUSD stabilized and recovered modestly over the past few daysAfter enduring notable losses last week, EURUSD steadied and mounted a modest comeback over the past few days, rebounding off the psychological 1.0600 level and pushing past the 1.0650 mark. If the pair continues to recover in the coming days, resistance is expected at 1.0695 and 1.0725 thereafter. On further strength, all eyes will be on 1.0820.
Conversely, should sellers reassert themselves and take charge of the market, technical support becomes apparent at 1.0600. Bulls must vigorously defend this technical floor; any failure to do so could exacerbate bearish momentum in the near term, paving the way for a deeper decline towards the 2023 lows near 1.0450.
EURUSD stabilized and rebounded off the psychological 1.0600After steep losses in recent days, EURUSD stabilized and rebounded off the psychological 1.0600 level on Wednesday, pushing past the 1.0650 mark. If the pair manages to build upon its recovery in the days ahead, resistance lies at 1.0695, followed by 1.0725. On further strength, the focus will be on 1.0820.
On the other hand, if sellers return and regain control of the market, technical support emerges at 1.0600. Bulls must staunchly defend this technical floor; a failure to do so could reinforce bearish pressure in the near term, resulting in a deeper pullback toward the 2023 lows located near 1.0450.
