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2024-07-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes all read except DJI. Given the overbought conditions especially for the russel, tis was expected. Tech selling continued and is accelerating. For Nvidia all but 1 remaining bull trend line are broken and if bears can close the gap down to 114, they can probably print 100 over the next weeks. My measured move target 96 is from 2024-07-06. Selling today was strong enough to expect more tomorrow, especially going into the weekend. Commodities - Gold printed a rather neutral doji on the daily chart after a new ath 2488. Will we sell off from here or can they go 2500? I don’t know. 2500 is an obvious magnet but Opex is around the corner and maybe too many yolo’d into 2500 calls. Oil got the expected bounce to 83, which I have been writing about since Sunday. Buying was strong enough for follow through tomorrow but bears need to keep it below 84 or this is not a pullback anymore. Bitcoin - Market has still not touched the 4h 20ema since Saturday. Very strong buying by the bulls but it gets weaker. I don’t know if they can break out above again without a deeper pullback first. It’s also very bullish, that nasdaq sells off while btc stays above 62000. Should only look for longs as long as market stays above the 4h ema. dax comment: Will change from dax cfd from EasyMarkets to dax futures from now on. Market opened below y close and quickly filled the gap before bears took over and grinded it down. 18500 was bought as expected but the two legs up were so strong, that bears did not try to force another test of 18500 and market went mostly sideways, which is a neutral signal going into tomorrow. The bear channel is holding properly but bears would need a weekly close below 18500 for more selling next week. Market has formed a triangle with the bull trend line and the most recent bear channel resistance line and market will break out tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle) key levels: small range 18500 / 18900 - If 18500 is broken for good, next support is 18360 bull case: Bulls bought where they had to and stopped a bigger sell off. They need to break the bear channel for another test of 18900 or higher. They bounced at the daily 20ema yesterday and today they closed above it again, which means that bulls are technically still in control but if they do not reverse it tomorrow, it’s night night. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears now had 3 decent legs down to 18500 and market then oscillated around the 50% pullback from the recent bull trend, which is 18570. As long as the bears keep it mostly below the 1h 20ema and inside the bear channel, they are good and market will continue down. Their target is a weekly close below 18500, which would make most bulls cover and it would be a strong sell signal going into next week. Invalidation is above 18720. short term: Neutral between 18500 - 18650. Bearish below and bullish only on a strong break above the bear channel. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged trade of the day: Longs from the strong open were decent but you had to think fast. After the gap close market quickly reversed and since it reversed right at the 1h 20ema, that was your hint to look for shorts next time market gets near it.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
BTC will surge direct 72500$ Hi folks, as usual we are sniping a golden entry on btc Bitcoin tested the support area and grabbed liquidity from there. The price will pump hard due to the FOMo coming with news, The resistance area is $62,800, and the support area is $63,900 Don’t forget to boost and support our Ideas to receive more Analysis We are using LEET ALGORITHMIC CONCEPT (LAC) a revolutionary new trading concept developed by LEET TRADERS COMMUNITY and based on the reasoning logic of the most powerful trading algorithms that control all financial markets . very high accuracy, No psychological factor or stress, the only rule is to follow the steps of the checklist until you reach the target
Long
by LEETRADERS
BTCUSDT, Wed 17 Jul, Bitcoin price movement since 1st of July! From the study of this process according to ICT concepts, it can be seen: - The price has entered the discount zone and has touched the 62% level. - And the price has been reversed. - EQL formed near the 50% level and all bystops above it have been cleared. Therefore, I predict that we will have a sharp downward movement on Thursday. The entry point or low-risk trigger will be below the QL and below the open price on Monday, July 1st. And I will expect a target price of 58,200 or even 57,200. The above content is just a theory and does not constitute any offer to buy or sell or trade. Wish for a low-loss trade
Short
by kevin13433
2024-07-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: In my weekly post I expected a pullback to the bull trend line and that bulls would buy it again. That happened and then some. Very strong buying and market is right under prev ath 2477.1. It’s strong enough to expect more upside and we can probably print 2500 tomorrow. Where are the bears? Gone and waiting for bulls to start profit taking. You will see consecutive big bear bars and know when they appear. Will be a decent tripple top to short. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2300 - 2500 bull case: Bulls want a new ath and all the stops too close above it. 2500 would be a nice round number to reach. After that I don’t have anything for the bulls. It’s a trading range since April and such big trading ranges happen before the final flag and this one here is probably it. I would not bet on another strong bull trend above 2500. Invalidation is below 2400. bear case: Bears stepping aside enough and letting the higher high happen. They will probably wait for the bulls to begin the profit taking before shorting aggressively. Since the highest monthly close is from May and below 2350, I don’t have much arguments for the bulls until they close a month above that price. Invalidation is above 2510. short term: Bullish af. Don’t look for shorts. Go long on strong momentum and see how high this can go. 15m 20ema is my stop on any long as long as it holds. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500 current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long anything around the 1h 20ema.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-07-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market closed near the open, so neutral. Bulls printed another ath but got another big rejection for 50 points. Bears need lower lows and follow through selling or we continue inside the broad bull channel. Friday’s and Today’s daily bar look bad enough for the bulls so I think bears are favored slightly to get to 5640 or lower tomorrow. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 5500 - 5720 bull case: Bulls buying every dip and staying near or above the 1h 20ema. Despite the many rejections above 5700, bulls are in control and poke higher each day. Clean broad bull channel and until bears break below and make lower lows again, bulls are heavily favored. Invalidation is below 5600. bear case: Big up, big down, market went nowhere today, despite another ath. Bears desperately need lower lows below 5600, otherwise every dip is bought. First bear target are consecutive closes below the 1h 20ema and then a retest of 5640, which is Friday’s open and near the bull channel line. Invalidation is above 5720. short term: Neutral and fading the extremes. Selling above 5700 continues to be profitable. Not interested in buying this. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”. trade of the day: Shorting above 5700 was good for 48 points. Was previous resistance and still is. Daily close above 5700 would change that.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 14th —>July 19th)Market Forecast (Updated 07/14/2024) **SPX**- As we predicted last week, market was bullish, We also saw lower than expect CPI and PPI data which pushed the chance of a rate cut to 88% in September. Due to the chance of rate cut actually happening, we are seeing rotation into small cap stocks and industrials. Next resistance $5626 and $5655 Next support $5490 and 5385 Weekly Sentiment = Slightly Bearish **Chart Analysis:** () **Dollar Index:** DXY- As rate cut chances increase and JPY FX started to increase, we are starting to see weakness in the dollar. Next resistance $105 Support $104 Sentiment = Oversold **Put to call Ratio: 1.56 —> 1.31 Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024** **Fear & Greed Index: 54—>56**
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 08 - July 12]After gold retested the $2,364 level it broke this technical level over the weekend and headed towards the original price point of $2,400. As sent to readers in recent publications, in terms of technical factors, gold price still has enough conditions for a bullish outlook with the main support being noticed at the EMA21 moving average line, The fact that gold prices are operating above the 21-day moving average makes this moving average a reliable support. On the other hand, in the short term the 0.236% Fibonacci level is also a notable support point; Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up without reaching the overbought level, showing that the upward price momentum is still widespread. In the immediate future, the target level will still be noticed at the original price point of 2,400 USD, this is an important price point where the gold price can make short-term downward adjustments here. However, once the original price level of 2,400 USD is broken, gold will continue to move towards 2,449 USD in the short term. The bullish outlook for gold prices will be highlighted again by the following technical points. Support: 2,364 – 2,350 – 2,345USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,449USD 📌The trading plan for next week will be to buy if the price returns to test around the 2335 barrier, and to sell if the price approaches the 2440 area.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD moves closer to 2,370 USD, pay attention to CPIIn the Asian market today, Wednesday (July 10), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased rapidly in the short term, gold prices approached the mark of 2,370 USD/ounce. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not give a clear signal that an interest rate cut was imminent. In testimony before Congress on Tuesday, Powell said that inflation "remains above" the Fed's 2% target, but it has improved in recent months, so if the Fed wants to start cutting rates productivity, they need more good data to support its plausibility. Powell also noted that the labor market has cooled, adding that “we now have bilateral risks” and can no longer focus solely on inflation. But Powell did not offer the dovish stance some market participants were looking for. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. This hearing was Powell's last public address to Congress before the United States presidential election. Following Powell's congressional speech, the market's focus is on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released on Thursday. Recent data shows US CPI data starting to decline from unexpectedly high levels at the beginning of the year. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 95.3% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 26.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 70.0%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 3 .3%. When interest rates are low, the attractiveness of gold tends to increase and boost gold prices. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to try to recover from the downward correction earlier this week and is heading towards the price area that was the resistance target noted by readers in yesterday's publication, at the price point of 2,377. USD. The fact that gold maintains price activity above 2,364USD is considered a positive technical signal. Meanwhile, once gold breaks the resistance at 2,377 USD, it will have enough technical conditions to continue towards the subsequent target level at the original price point of 2,400 USD. In terms of the overall technical chart, gold has all the bullish conditions with the main trend from the price channel, the nearest support is noticed at the technical point of 2,364 USD and the support confluence of the price channel, Fibonacci retracement. 0.236% and EMA21 moving average. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, the near-term technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,364 – 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,377 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2384 - 2382 ⚰️SL: 2388 ⬆️TP1: 2377 ⬆️TP2: 2372 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2337 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2333 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2349
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD corrects and recovers, pay special attention to today's CPIOANDA:XAUUSD eased after a significant rise on Wednesday and started to recover in early Asian trading today (July 11). Powell's testimony hinted at expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a stronger dollar and rising bond yields, while investors await June U.S. inflation data to come. announced this weekend. A clearer picture of the path of US interest rates after the release of CPI and PPI data. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said Wednesday local time that current monetary policy is restrained and the neutral interest rate has increased, at least in the short term. Usually when Powell talks about a higher neutral interest rate, it means a higher long-term policy rate. Powell said policy rates have been kept high for longer than initially expected because inflation and the labor market have been slow to respond. But Powell added that this is an issue the Fed will consider in its next policy review, which begins later this year, so it could have an impact on long-term interest rates going forward. Powell reiterated on Wednesday that more good data is needed to strengthen his stance on loose monetary policy. On inflation, Powell said Wednesday that he is not yet confident that inflation will fall sustainably toward the 2% target. However, there is no need to wait for inflation to drop to 2% to cut interest rates. Regarding the prospect of cutting interest rates, Mr. Powell said the Fed does not need to wait until inflation falls below 2% before cutting interest rates. Regarding interest rate cuts, no specific inflation value (standard) is noted. The Fed has made great progress in shrinking its balance sheet, but there is still a long way to go. According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the market expects a 74.1% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and another rate cut in December. Market focus is now shifting to US CPI and PPI data released on Thursday and Friday respectively. Recent data shows that US inflation has eased from unexpectedly high levels earlier this year. Pay special attention to CPI data that will be published at 7:30 p.m. Hanoi time today, Thursday (July 11). If inflation data continues to shrink, this will continue to be a fundamental factor in favor of gold prices. On the other hand, if inflation is higher than expected, it will boost the Dollar and cause gold prices to face the possibility of a correction. significantly reduced. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold prices have adjusted downward after increasing significantly in yesterday's trading session, the general trend has not changed with factors supporting the possibility of price increases. In the immediate term, sustaining above $2,364 provides gold prices with the closest support and once it breaks $2,377 it will have room to continue bullish with a target then at the 2,400 raw price point. USD in the short term. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, the bullish technical outlook will not change, on the other hand, the RSI pointing up without reaching the overbought level suggests room for further upside. The technical side remains on the daily chart. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical points. Support: 2,364 – 2,350USD Resistance: 2,387 – 2,393 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2401 - 2399 ⚰️SL: 2405 ⬆️TP1: 2394 ⬆️TP2: 2389 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2337 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2333 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2349
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls got the breakout again, retested it and held above 82.74. I do think the high is here in the price area below 86 but market will probably have to spend more time here before bears can potentially trade it back down. In April we spent 14 days at the highs until market broke below, retested and went down for good. I expect the same pattern. comment: Outlooks and chart drawings do not get better than the oil chart posted below. Changed nothing for 2 weeks and still holds up. Next week could be the breakout for the bears. Decent enough rejections above 83 and even if bulls touch 84 again, I think we will trade down over the next weeks/months. current market cycle: trading range inside the big triangle. Market should stay below 86 or this take is probably wrong. On smaller tf we are still inside the bull channel. key levels: 80-86 bull case: Bulls were rejected a third time above 83.5 and even though they are in control above the daily 20ema, the selling pressure gets bigger and at some point they want a deeper pullback to buy. Invalidation is below 81. bear case: Bears have all the arguments imo. Market at big resistance 84 after bulls having 3 clear legs up. Bears now want a deep pullback to 80 and then keep the bounce below 83 and form a proper channel down. Invalidation is above 85. outlook last week: “short term: Bearish but I wait for bull channel break and bigger selling pressure. Can come fast or take the whole week. All bullish targets are met and as I wrote last week, next 10 points will probably be made to the down side.” → Last Sunday we traded 83.16 and now we are at 82.21. High was 83.74 and low was 80.81. outlook was good for 200+ points. short term: Bearish. All shorts have stop 86.35 so trade small. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. current swing trade: Short since 82.58. Would add to shorts above 83.5 if we get there. SL 86.35. chart update: Nope.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls got the breakout above and 2 good looking bull bars above the daily 20ema. Above 2407 we can expect bears to give up and a retest of 2460 or higher. Market is amazingly symmetrical. 3 tries to drop below 2300 and we are probably seeing the 3rd try at printing above 2477 over the next days. It’s a big trading range and I will long this above 2407 for 2460+ and will short this above 2460, once market turns around again. Maybe bulls can print a higher high or maybe they don’t, it does not matter since you wait for the clear reversal before shorting again. comment: Bears tried to bring it below the daily 20ema and failed again. Bulls got another smaller higher high which was also a perfect breakout, retest and long again. So bulls are in full control but they are also not very strong or the market would not pull back each time after 1-2 good looking bull bars. Same reasoning as last week. Can bulls print a higher high or will this become a right shoulder? Probably the latter. Bulls are at 2 good resistance lines and buying above 2400 has not been profitable for more than 2 days in this market ever. current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2407 is broken. If bulls break above, trading range is expanded again up to 2480 key levels: 2300 - 2480 bull case: Bulls keeping it inside the bull wedge and channel and as long as we stay in them, it’s bullish af. Bulls are mostly buying dips and not highs, otherwise market would print more consecutive bull bars. Targets for the bulls are obvious, retesting 2477 or making a higher high. Invalidation is below 2370. bear case: Bears only need 2 consecutive bear bars to reverse the market to below 2350 again. They are selling new highs inside the channel/wedge and so far it was profitable at least for scalps. They want this leg up to become the right shoulder and finally break the neckline on the next leg down and get below 2300. Invalidation is above 2510. outlook last week: “short term: Neutral until break above 2407. Bullish above” → Last Sunday we traded 2397 and now we are at 2420. 23 points higher… I mean… That’s pretty neutral to me since we also traded 30 points lower during the week. short term: Bearish for a pullback at least to the lower bull trend line again where I expect bulls to buy it again. No opinion after that. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged current swing trade: Went long but cut it early. It’s not bullish enough to buy up here. Will only look for shorts once we break the bull trend line. Chart update: Adjusted the bull wedge and added bull channel with last recent highs but just minor things. Trading range price action and patterns are weak at best.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: Don’t know what to tell you here. Market can obviously go much higher for longer and we can print a couple of higher highs. But I will never join the “this time it’s different” crowd. The only sure thing before bubbles popping is that markets print more and more ridiculous highs while more and more people say “it’s really different this time” and they always popped and always will. That’s the nature of the game. Am I saying you should short this right now? No. Do you want to buy this at 5621? If your answer is yes, I do hope you make money, enjoy my letter and take something from it. comment: Was I wrong about the highs? Yup. SP500 made a higher high by 1 tick. Do I care? Nope. Still convinced this here is the top and I give the market room to prove me wrong again. Have your stop loss in place and live with it if it gets hit. Part of the game. For me the odds of this being the high for the next weeks to months is greater than markets continuing up. current market cycle: Bull trap and the end of this trend is near. Will soon see a deeper pullback and we will form a trading range where the low is 5000. key levels: 5500 - 5700 bull case: Bulls printed another higher high and want to stay above the big bull trend line from 2023-01 and inside the bull wedge which could lead to 5800. If bulls actually manage to do so, no reason they can not print 6000 then but that is as low probability as it gets. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: On the weekly and monthly chart this will probably become a bar with a huge tail above, showing a clear rejection above 5600 and market will stay inside the bull wedge that has been going on for 16 months. Bears want to trap bulls who bought above 5600 and they need a strong daily close below 5550 next. Invalidation is above 5708. outlook last week: short term: Most likely outcome for me is a bull trap above 5600 and we will see a correction over the next weeks. I wait for bear strength before shorting. I will only continue to buy quick momentum scalps if we continue upwards. → Last Sunday we traded 5621 and now we are at 5664. Bad outlook but still think it will become a bull trap over the next week. short term: Bearish. Called the top and will stand by that call. If bulls do another higher high and close above 5708, so be it. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see a bigger correction down to at least 5450 in the near term and likely also 5300. Still think 5000 will be hit in 2024. current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”. Chart update: Nope.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
Deep Dive into ENS: Full Review of the Project and ENS V2📅 Let's move on to today's analysis. Today, I want to analyze the ENS coin, which is part of the Ethereum ecosystem. With this project, you can buy a domain for your wallet. 🗂 ENS v2 Update : Recently, ENS published an article and introduced the v2 update of the project, announcing that they have added a series of new features to their platform. By collaborating with L2 projects, they aim to reduce fees, increase flexibility, utilize multi-chain capabilities, and make their service more accessible, user-friendly, and cost-effective for everyone, playing a more significant role in the web3 space. ⚙️ How the Project Works : Let's dive deeper into the project and visit its website. The first image you see on the site is a very beautiful landing page. By clicking on "Launch App," you can enter the main space of the platform. 🧩 After launching the app, you need to connect your wallet to the site and search for your desired ID in the search bar. If the domain is available, you can purchase it. If it is registered, it means someone else has already bought it before you. As you can see in the example I searched for, "parham96.eth" has already been registered, but "parham96.box" is still available and hasn't been purchased yet. 🛍 After finding your desired domain, you need to confirm the transaction sent to your wallet. Currently, the cost of this operation, considering the Ethereum network fee, is about $6 for a one-year subscription. According to the project, after the v2 update, these costs will be lower. 🎈 After purchasing, to access the details of your purchased domain, click on the "My Names" section (I prefer not to show you an image of this section due to the privacy of my wallet). You can: 👤 Add a profile picture for your wallet, write a bio, and connect your social media accounts from the profile section. ⚡️ Add another address to your domain from the record section. 🎲 Change the owner of the domain or renew it from the ownership section. 🌐 Create a subdomain for yourself just like websites from the Subname section. ⚓️ Use the permission and more sections to apply other desired settings to your purchased domain. 🌱 Usefulness of the Domain : For example, the "parham96.eth" domain is mine. In this case, I don't need to send my wallet address to someone who wants to transfer to me for each transaction. Just replacing the destination wallet address with the "parham96.eth" phrase will direct the funds to the same wallet. If you search for this domain on Etherscan, you can see it is registered on the blockchain and that the ownership of the domain is also viewable as an NFT in your wallet. 🔄 Renewing the Domain: Click on "Extend," then click "Next," followed by "Open Wallet" to create a transaction. Confirm the transaction through your wallet to renew the domain. ✨ ENS Coin : The ENS project also has a very well-known coin named ENS, which is among the top 100 coins in the market with an $800 million market cap. It is listed on all reputable exchanges, making it a successful project that can achieve even greater success with the launch of ENS V2. 🔍 Technical Analysis : In the daily timeframe, after the price reached a peak of 27.61, the market entered a range, with the price oscillating between 16.58 and 27.61. Following Bitcoin's significant drop, this coin also dropped to the 12.24 area. However, with the announcement of ENS V2 and collaboration with L2 projects, it started an upward movement and returned to the 27.61 area, even briefly breaking this level before returning below it in a fake breakout. 💥 Current Momentum : The price currently lacks momentum. After the fake breakout, there should have been a bearish momentum, but nothing has happened, and the market is still ranging. 📊 Volume Analysis : The volume clearly supports the buyers, as the buying volumes significantly exceed the selling volumes. In the recent bullish candles, the selling volume has significantly decreased. 🧲 Indicators : Due to the ranging market and lack of momentum, I am not using SMAs. However, a break below 43.36 on the RSI would confirm bearish momentum entering the market. 🛒 Long Position : The price has tested the 27.61 resistance six times so far, with increasing buying volume. Given the positive sentiment around ENS V2, it is possible that a few days before the launch, the price will stabilize above this level with a large bullish candle, leaving many behind. 🛎 Short Position : On the other hand, buyers may lose interest in breaking this resistance after six attempts, allowing sellers to enter the market and push the price down. ⚖️ Investment Strategy : If you believe ENS is a good project and that ENS V2 can generate bullish momentum in the market, consider adding this coin to your portfolio and purchasing it according to your strategy. 🎯 Target Prices: If the project succeeds and gains more hype, the initial target prices are 38.10 and 49.27, with the next target being the ATH of 75.80. 👨‍💻 Futures Trading : 📈 For a long position, a candle close above 27.61 in the 4-hour timeframe can confirm an upward trend. You can look for an entry trigger in the lower timeframes like 1-hour, with a target of 32.83. 📉 For a short position, a break below 23.30 and a candle close beneath this level can confirm a downward trend, with a target of 18.94. ♟ Personally, I will try to open a long position on this coin once the price stabilizes above 27.61. For short positions, I prefer to trade a coin with negative news and lacking a strong upward trend like ENS. 🧠💼 Always remember the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Stick to strict capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, ensuring an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
Long
by itsparham96
2
GOLD correction, nearest support level, main technical trendDuring the European market trading session on Monday (July 8), spot gold tended to adjust significantly intraday since the 6-week high reached last week. The current gold price is about 2,372 USD/ounce, down more than 18 USD during the day. Gold prices adjusted gently mainly due to the recovery in Bond Yields, with the 10-year US Bond Yield at 4,308 recovering 0.61% on the day. In addition, China's suspension of gold purchases for the second consecutive month in June put pressure on gold prices. Official data released Sunday showed China's central bank's total gold holdings were unchanged at 72.8 million ounces as of the end of June. In May, China's central bank decided to pause the increase in gold reserves, ending an 18-month gold buying spree that was seen as a support that had helped gold prices rise to record highs. Currently, the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 73.8%, slightly reduced from the 74% probability after the release of US nonfarm payroll data on Thursday. Six weeks ago, according to FedWatch data provided by CME group. On the daily chart, as noted by readers in the previous issue, the current correction in gold prices has not yet reached the first support level at 2,364 USD and as long as gold remains above the level 2,364USD, the ability to adjust will still face many limitations. Instead, the support level at $2,364 is noted as a near-term support level that could push gold prices further towards the original price point of $2,400. In case the gold price continues to be sold below 2,364 USD, it has conditions to adjust further with a target level of about 2,340 USD, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci level. However, in the overall technical picture, the technical trend of gold price is still more inclined towards the possibility of price increase with the following price points being noticed. Support: 2,364 – 2,360USD Resistance: 2,392 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2411 - 2409 ⚰️SL: 2415 ⬆️TP1: 2404 ⬆️TP2: 2399 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2359 - 2361 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2366 ⬆️TP2: 2371
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD recovers after correction, main causes, and trendsOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading recovered after falling sharply on Friday, once approaching $2,350 and is now reported at $2,367/oz, a gain equivalent to 0.36% on the day as of press time. Gold prices fell more than 1% in the US trading session yesterday (July 9), due to the rise of the US stock market and profit-taking activities of investors. In addition, China, the largest consumer of gold, did not buy gold; This is the second consecutive month this year that the Central Bank of China has not increased reserves. These are the main reasons for the expectation of a downward adjustment in gold prices sent to you in yesterday's and Sunday's editions. Official data released Sunday showed China's central bank's total gold holdings remained unchanged at 72.8 million ounces as of the end of June. In May this year, China's central bank decided to temporarily stop increasing gold reserves, ending an 18-month gold purchase period. When China's central bank released data on buying pauses in May. Last week's US nonfarm payrolls data showed a weak labor market, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve is about to start cutting interest rates. The market currently predicts a 77.1% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Investors this week will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's semi-annual congressional testimony, a series of speeches by Fed officials and US CPI data released on Thursday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, Gold is recovering slightly after a downward correction yesterday and overall the correction in gold prices is still limited. During the term, the price area around $2,364 will still be the closest support, and even if gold moves below this level it will be limited by the confluence of EMA21 support and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. %, the price area is about 2,340 - 2,345USD. The relative strength index (RSI) points up but is still far from the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price growth. Technically and intraday the trend of gold prices leans more towards conditions for bullish expectations. Technical points will be noted again as follows. Support: 2,364 – 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,377 – 2,392 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2373 - 2371 ⚰️SL: 2377 ⬆️TP1: 2366 ⬆️TP2: 2361 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2341 - 2343 ⚰️SL: 2337 ⬆️TP1: 2348 ⬆️TP2: 2353
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Get ready for big data, GOLD rises to retest 2,364USDOANDA:XAUUSD is mostly flat as the market awaits important news from US non-farm data to be released today (Friday). Fed rate cut expectations are based on this data. At the same time, affected by the US holiday, market trading volume decreased and gold prices found it difficult to maintain Wednesday's gains, fluctuating in a narrow range but still above 2,350 USD/ounce. Recent U.S. economic data has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin easing policy sooner than expected, but policymakers remain cautious and want to see deflation progress. further development. Data released by the US showed initial jobless claims last week and ADP data showed private hiring activity fell in June compared to May. Additionally, US PMI data ISM service industry shows that business activities in the service industry have fallen into a decline zone. Earlier this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said deflation had resumed but emphasized that more progress was needed before interest rate cuts could be considered. He added: “Because the American economy is strong and the labor market is strong, we can take our time and get the job done.” At the same time, the US Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes of its June meeting showing that most participants believe that current policy is very restrictive but leaves the door open for interest rate hikes. Policymakers acknowledge that the economy is cooling and could respond to unexpected economic weakness. Today (Friday), the United States will release its nonfarm payrolls report for June, which is expected to show that the US labor market added 190,000 jobs, down from 272,000 in May. Of course, if NFP data declines, it will be beneficial for gold because it increases the possibility that the Fed will soon cut interest rates, making the US Dollar less attractive. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%, unchanged from the previous figure, while average hourly earnings (AHE) are expected to fall to 3.9% from 4.1 %. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 72% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September, up from 63% on Tuesday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold was limited by the $2,364 level that readers noticed in the previous issue, it is now rising to test this important technical level. In the short term, once gold breaks $2,364 it will have room to continue rising with a target then noted at the original price point of $2,400. On the other hand, on the overall technical chart, gold still has all the technical factors for a possible price increase. With the nearest support level at the 0.236% Fibonacci point and main support from the 21-day moving average (EMA21). The relative strength index (RSI) is gradually moving up but is still very far from the overbought area, showing that the room for price increases is still very wide. During the day, the technical trend leans heavily towards the possibility of an increase in the price of gold and it will be noticed by the following points. Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,364 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2394 - 2392 ⚰️SL: 2398 ⬆️TP1: 2387 ⬆️TP2: 2382 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2334 - 2336 ⚰️SL: 2330 ⬆️TP1: 2341 ⬆️TP2: 2346
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
Nasdaq's Stellar Returns, Potential Risks AheadThe Nasdaq-100 has been a stellar performer since its debut in 1985, rising 22,900% (with dividends reinvested) for a 14.8% compounded annual total rate of return. By comparison, the S&P 500 returned 7,200% over the same period with dividends reinvested, an 11.5% compounded return (Figure 1). Figure 1: Since the inception of the Nasdaq-100 index in 1985, it has outperformed the S&P Source: Bloomberg Professional (XNDX and SPXT) However, the Nasdaq’s outperformance can partly be attributed to higher risk levels. It has been consistently more volatile than the S&P 500 (Figure 2) and has been subject to much greater drawdowns. On March 28, 2000, Nasdaq began a drawdown that reached -81.76% on August 5, 2002 (Figure 3). The total return index didn’t hit a new high-water mark until February 12, 2015. It also had a sharper drawdown during the 2022 bear market. Figure 2: The Nasdaq-100 has nearly always been more volatile than the S&P 500 Source: Bloomberg Professional (XNDX and SPXT), CME Economic Research Calculations Figure 3: From 2000 to 2002, the Nasdaq-100 fell by nearly 82% and didn’t recover until 2015. Source: Bloomberg Professional (XNDX and SPXT), CME Economic Research Calculations A large part of the reason for the Nasdaq’s greater overall return, higher volatility and its heightened susceptibility to deep and long drawdowns is its dependence on one sector: information technology. Since at least the 1990s, Nasdaq has been nearly synonymous with the tech sector. While nearly every sector has at least some presence in the Nasdaq, since its launch in 1999 it has always had a near-perfect correlation with the S&P 500 Information Technology Index (the basis for the S&P E-Mini Technology Select Sector futures launched in 2011). That correlation has never fallen below +0.9 and has sometimes been as high as +0.98. In the past 12 months the correlation has been +0.95 (Figure 4). Figure 4: The Nasdaq-100 has always had extremely high correlations with the tech sector Source: Bloomberg Professional (NDX, S5INFT, S5UTIL, S5ENRS, S5FINL, S5HLTH, S5CONS, S5COND, S5MATR, S5INDU, S5TELS) The preponderance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq is largely a function of history. Nasdaq was founded in 1971 as the world’s first electronic stock market and it began to attract technology companies, in part, because it had more flexible listing requirements regarding revenue and profitability than other venues. Over time the technology ecosystem settled largely on this market and came to dominate the Nasdaq-100 Index. Those who need to minimize tracking risks with respect to the S&P 500 Information Technology Index can do so with the Select Sector futures. However, those who wish to increase or decrease exposure to the technology sector more generally, and for whom tracking risks is a less of a concern can easily increase or reduce their exposure with the Nasdaq-100 futures. Also launched in June 1999 were E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures, which are now turning 25 years old. The contracts caught on quickly, and today trade at more than 668K contracts or $60 billion in notional value each day. E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures offer capital-efficient exposure to the Nasdaq-100 index, and allow investors to trade and track one NQ futures contract versus 100 stocks to achieve nearly identical exposure. These futures also help mitigate risk against the top-heavy nature of the Nasdaq-100 index, where the so-called Magnificent Seven companies—Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Google-parent Alphabet and Tesla—have dominated recently. Broad exposure to this index acts as a hedge if the Magnificent Seven stocks decline. The Nasdaq has also correlated highly in recent years with consumer discretionary stocks as well as telecoms. By contrast, it has typically low correlations with traditional high-dividend sectors such as consumer staples, energy and utilities which tend to be listed on other exchanges. The exception to this rule is during down markets, when stocks tend to become more highly correlated. The Nasdaq also has very different interest rate sensitivities than its peers. For starters, high short-term interest rates seem to benefit the Nasdaq-100 companies as many of them have large reserves of cash that are earning high rates of return by sitting in T-Bills and other short-term maturities. This is a sharp contrast to the Russell 2000 index, which has suffered as Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes have increased the cost of financing for smaller and mid-sized firms, which borrow from banks rather than bond holders and don’t usually have substantial cash reserves. By contrast, the Nasdaq has shown a very negative sensitivity to higher long-term bond yields. Many of the technology stocks in the Nasdaq-100 are trading at high earnings multiples. Some have market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion. Higher long-term bond yields are a potential threat because much the value of these corporations is what equity analysts might refer to as their “value in perpetuity,” meaning beyond any reasonable forecast horizon. Typically, such earnings are discounted using long-term bond yields and the higher those yields go, the lower the net present value of those future earnings. Additionally, higher long-term bond yields can also induce investors to switch out of highly volatile and expensive equity portfolios into the relatively less volatile, fixed- income securities. The Nasdaq’s high sensitivity to long-term bond yields may explain why the index sold off so sharply in 2022 alongside a steep fall in the price of long-dated U.S. Treasuries, whose yields were rising in anticipation of Fed tightening and due to concerns about the persistence of inflation. By contrast, the Nasdaq has done well since October 2022 despite the Fed continuing to raise short-term rates through July 2023 and subsequently keeping those rates high. On the one hand, many of the cash-rich Nasdaq companies are benefitting from higher returns on their holdings of short-term securities. On the other hand, they are also benefitting from the fact that higher short-term rates have steadied long-term bond yields by making it clear that the Fed is taking inflation seriously. This isn’t to suggest that the Nasdaq is immune from downside risks. History shows that the risks are very real, especially in the event of an economic downturn. In the 2001 tech wreck recession, the Fed cut short-term rates from 6.5% to 1% but long-term bond yields remained relatively high, which was not a helpful combination for the tech sector. In addition to its 82% decline during the tech wreck recession, it also fell sharply during the global financial crisis, though not as badly as the S&P 500, which had a far larger weighting to bank stocks. This time around, potential threats to the Nasdaq include: The possibility of an economic downturn which could crimp corporate profits. Rate cuts which would reduce the return on cash positions. Large budget deficits and quantitative tightening which could push up long-term bond yields. Possibly tighter regulation of the tech sector in the U.S. and abroad. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by CME_Group
6
#BTCUSDT #4h (OKX Futures) Descending trendline break and retestBitcoin just regained 50MA support and is pulling back to it, looks ready for short-term recovery towards 200MA resistance, especially after that bullish hammer. ⚡️⚡️ #BTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: OKX Futures Signal Type: Regular (Long) Leverage: Isolated (5.0X) Amount: 4.9% Current Price: 57886.5 Entry Targets: 1) 57738.1 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 62483.9 Stop Targets: 1) 55359.4 Published By: @Zblaba CRYPTOCAP:BTC OKX:BTCUSDT.P #4h #Bitcoin #PoW bitcoin.org Risk/Reward= 1:2.0 Expected Profit= +41.1% Possible Loss= -20.6% Estimated Gaintime= 1 week
Long
by TradingOn
2
GOLD slight correction after reaching 2,364 USDOANDA:XAUUSD rallied sharply to test the $2,364 technical level as US economic data performed worse than expected, pressuring the dollar and driving gold prices higher. In addition, tensions in the Middle East showing signs of increasing also stimulate money flows into safe haven assets, and gold is the top choice. Economic data released by the United States was weaker than expected, increasing market bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in September. Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows business activity in the US services sector softened after reaching its highest level since August 2023. Along with a rise in the number of Americans filing Jobless claims and hiring by private companies were lower than expected, and employment data weakened, prompting markets to reprice the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Data released Wednesday showed that in the week ended June 29, adjusted initial jobless claims in the United States were 238,000, above market expectations of 234,000. In the week ending June 22, the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits after adjustment in the US was 1.858 million people, higher than market expectations and setting a new high since November. 2021. The ADP jobs report showed private sector employment rose by 150,000 in June, falling for the third straight month and hitting a new low since January, below the 163,000 expected by economists. forecast. Federal Reserve minutes released Wednesday showed officials at the June policy meeting had differing views on how long interest rates should remain high. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) interest rate meeting that ended June 12 showed that while "some" officials emphasized the need for patience, "some" participants especially noting that continued weakness in the job market could lead to higher unemployment rates. According to the minutes, officials reiterated that a rate cut would not be appropriate until more data reinforced their belief that inflation was on target. Despite recent signs that some progress has been made in fighting inflation, some policymakers maintain a willingness to raise interest rates if inflation remains high. Traders' attention turns to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report as US markets will be closed on Thursday for the Independence Day holiday. Geopolitical risks Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement on July 3 saying at least 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon toward northern Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon announced a missile attack in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon that day that killed a senior commander of the organization. The Israeli army issued a statement early on the morning of July 3 confirming that Nasser, a core figure of Hezbollah in Lebanon, was killed in an Israeli airstrike. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after increasing in price to reach 2,364 USD, please note that in yesterday's publication, gold is temporarily limited by this level, which is also the target price increase that For gold to open a new bullish cycle it needs to break the technical level of 2,364 USD. Although the upward momentum of gold prices is limited, the overall picture still shows that gold prices have all the conditions to increase in price with major support except the EMA21 moving average and the nearest support level at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. . As long as gold maintains its price performance above the EMA21, it still has a bullish technical outlook in the short term, and once it breaks the $2,364 technical point, gold has the potential to resume its uptrend at the target level. Initial spending is about 2,400 USD. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical points. Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,364USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2394 - 2392 ⚰️SL: 2398 ⬆️TP1: 2387 ⬆️TP2: 2382 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2334 - 2336 ⚰️SL: 2330 ⬆️TP1: 2341 ⬆️TP2: 2346
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
75: Post-Liquidation Strategy for Nasdaq Mini FuturesAfter liquidating longs at the low, we aim to hold the level of 20,712 in the Nasdaq Mini Futures market. Recent market movements have shown increased volatility, making it crucial to identify key support and resistance levels. Staying informed about macroeconomic events and earnings reports is essential as these factors can significantly impact market direction. Bullish Scenario: If we maintain this level, we will wait for a gain at 20,713 and then look for new highs around 20,752. Bearish Scenario: When losing this level (20,712), we will shift our focus to 20,686 and wait for new scenarios to develop. Staying vigilant and adaptable in this volatile market environment is key to navigating potential trading opportunities and risks.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Soldi75