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Technical Analysis – Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 1H Chart + TRADE PLANThe chart displays a symmetrical triangle pattern, which is a neutral continuation pattern often leading to a breakout in the direction of the prevailing trend. The current price action is at the apex of the triangle, suggesting an imminent breakout. The price is currently testing the lower trendline support, with a visible weakening momentum. Indicators Analysis: VMC Cipher B Divergences: Showing bearish momentum with continued red wave dominance and lack of significant bullish divergence. RSI (14): Bearish territory at 32.51, approaching oversold but no bullish divergence visible. Money Flow Index (MFI): At 28.90, indicating weak buying pressure, leaning toward bearish continuation. Stochastic Oscillator (14, 3, 3): In the oversold zone (1.49), which could indicate a short-term bounce is possible, but not confirmed by other indicators. Volume: Note that the chart mentions volume data is unavailable. Confirmation on volume spikes during breakout is essential to validate any move. Scenarios and Targets Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout (Less probable based on current conditions) Break above triangle resistance (approx. 102,300 USD). Target 1: 107,500 USD (Measured move from triangle height). Target 2: 115,500 USD (Extended target based on historical breakout levels and Fibonacci projection). Confirmation needed: Clear breakout with high volume and RSI recovery above 50. Scenario 2 – Bearish Breakdown (More probable currently) Break below triangle support (approx. 101,300 USD). Immediate Target 1: 97,000 USD (Measured move from triangle height). Target 2: 93,500 USD (Previous major support zone). Confirmation needed: Hourly candle close below support zone and breakdown with increased volume, RSI falling below 30, Stochastic remaining oversold. Trading Plan Bias: Bearish unless invalidated by bullish breakout confirmation. Entry Strategy: Aggressive short entry: On hourly candle close below 101,300 USD. Conservative short entry: On confirmation below 101,000 USD with volume spike. Stop-Loss: Above 102,500 USD, invalidating the bearish thesis. Take-Profit Zones: TP1: 97,000 USD TP2: 93,500 USD Risk Management: Max risk per trade: 1-2% of portfolio. Monitor closely for fakeouts at the apex; symmetrical triangles are prone to false moves. Alternative Strategy: If bullish breakout occurs above 102,500 USD with RSI reclaiming 50, switch to a long setup with: Stop Loss: Below 101,000 USD TP1: 107,500 USD TP2: 115,500 USD Current indicators, price behavior, and chart pattern favor a bearish scenario. Key to execution is waiting for confirmed breakout direction with volume confirmation, especially near the critical apex zone. Stay adaptive, as symmetrical triangles can break either way, and false breakouts are common.
MARKETSCOM:BITCOINLong
by elfabiiani
2
2025-05-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Higher highs and higher lows compared to Tuesday. We are in a triangle and market is refusing to print below 23500. I do think we will see a big move tomorrow. What I don’t think is that we will close Friday at an extreme. If we get to 24000 again, I am very inclined to look to fade it again. Can we close this week below 23000? I gighly doubt that as well. current market cycle: broad bull channel or trading range - doesn’t matter since you trade them the same key levels: 23000 - 24100 bull case: Bulls want 24000 again and I think 23500 is the place where they are happy to scale in. Bears will likely give up tomorrow, if we move above 23650 since they tried 3 times since Monday and market is refusing to go lower. I still think bulls will likely not get much more than 24000. Every time we are in a form of a triangle, I will not write much since market is in balance around it’s midpoint and you should not interpret more into it than it is. We are in a clear bull trend and this sideways correction is better for bulls than bears, since sideways is acceptance and it means bears are not making much money. Invalidation is below 23300. bear case: Bears can not expect 23500 to break all of a sudden tomorrow. If anything, most have to cover if we go above 23650 because we could do 23750 or higher. I don’t have much for the bears. If they somehow break below 23440, it would open up the possibility of 23000 but for now it’s very unlikely. Invalidation is above 24100. short term: Neutral but rather looking for longs than shorts. Clear support 23500 and everyone expects at least a double top or more. medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp. trade of the day: Shorting above 23700 has been profitable all week but I expect it to fail either tomorrow or Friday. Market poked enough at it, that the chance of a breakout above is too big for me to continue to fade against that price.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) ON BINANCE + TRADE PLANTechnical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Market Trend and Chart Structure: The price of Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase as shown in the descending channel pattern formed by the resistance and support lines. The market is moving within this range, but there is a strong possibility of a breakout to the upside based on the bullish divergence forming on the indicators and the overall market sentiment. The chart also shows Bollinger Bands (BB), which are in a squeeze, signaling a potential breakout. Typically, this indicates that volatility is low, and the price could move sharply in either direction once the bands break. Key Indicators and Signals: MACD: The MACD indicator is showing a bullish crossover, which indicates the possibility of a trend reversal to the upside. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 45.78, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This suggests that Bitcoin is in a neutral zone, but with bullish signals from other indicators, an upward move seems likely if momentum continues to build. ArtY Money Flow Index: The Money Flow Index is showing green bars, suggesting that capital is flowing into Bitcoin, which supports the bullish outlook. Stochastic RSI: The stochastic is in the oversold region (currently at 14.99), which usually signals a potential reversal to the upside. Resistance and Support Levels: Resistance: The primary resistance level is located at $105,705. A break above this level would indicate a strong upward move. Support: The primary support level is around $101,600. If the price reaches this level and holds, it could act as a potential bounce point for a reversal. Trading Strategy and Plan: Entry Strategy: Buy Entry: Enter a long position if the price breaks above the $104,700-$105,705 range, indicating a breakout above resistance. A confirmation from the MACD and RSI would add strength to this signal. Stop Loss: Set a stop-loss order at $101,000, below the key support, to manage risk if the market reverses unexpectedly. Target/Exit Strategy: Take Profit Target: A good target is at the $110,000 level, where Bitcoin could face another resistance. A more aggressive target could be at $115,000, but this would require a continuation of the bullish momentum. Trailing Stop: Use a trailing stop as Bitcoin continues to move upward to secure profits if the price continues to climb without retracing. Risk Management: Maintain a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:3, meaning you should aim for profits that are at least three times the amount of risk you take. This will ensure better risk management in case the market reverses unexpectedly. Monitor the market sentiment closely. Bitcoin's price movements can be highly volatile, so being ready to adjust stop-loss and take-profit levels is essential for successful trading. Bitcoin is showing positive signs of breaking to the upside, with support from key technical indicators such as bullish MACD crossovers, oversold stochastic levels, and a neutral RSI. It’s essential to monitor the breakout above the $104,700-$105,705 level, which could signal a strong upward move. However, traders should use proper risk management techniques, such as setting stop-loss orders and managing position sizes carefully. Always stay updated with market news and adjust your strategy based on any significant news or changes in the overall market sentiment.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by elfabiiani
1
GOLD is supported short, trend is bearishThe bargain-hunting wave has supported OANDA:XAUUSD in the short term. In addition, weaker-than-expected US CPI in April, cooling expectations for a Fed rate cut, a fall in the US Dollar Index from a one-month high, and geopolitical concerns have all provided bullish momentum for gold. Spot gold was trading in a narrow range in early trading on Wednesday (May 14), currently trading around $3,245/ounce. Inflation data Data from the US Labor Department, a key indicator of Federal Reserve policy, released on Tuesday showed that the CPI rose just 0.2% month-on-month in April, below the expected 0.3%. This mild inflation report is like a tonic, injecting new life into gold prices. This data will not hinder the Fed's interest rate cut, and the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates again in September. It is worth noting that while inflationary pressures are not high now, inflation could pick up again in the coming months as the impact of tariffs becomes clear. Such expectations are prompting many investors to turn to gold as an inflation hedge. On the same day on Tuesday, Do Nam Trung once again called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates On Tuesday, Trump reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, saying that the prices of gasoline, groceries and “almost everything else” are falling. Geopolitics: “Safe Haven Fire” In addition to economic factors, continued tensions in the global geopolitical situation also provide strong support for gold. The possible face-to-face talks between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin are fraught with uncertainty, and despite a temporary ceasefire in the India-Pakistan conflict, the underlying tensions between the two sides have not changed. These uncertainties mean that gold still has the potential to rise in price once market risks suddenly occur. Looking Ahead: Gold’s Challenges Looking ahead, gold faces three key variables: • First, the further progress of the Sino-US trade talks. Although the two sides have reached a 90-day truce, the comprehensive tariff policy remains in effect. • Second, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. A soft performance in inflation data could pave the way for a rate cut. • Finally, global geopolitical risks, especially the developments in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the India-Pakistan conflict. There is relatively little economic data on the trading day. US Secretary of State Rubio will attend the informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers from May 14 to 16 to discuss NATO security priorities, including increased defense spending and ending the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, several Federal Reserve officials will speak, which investors should pay attention to. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still trading in a narrow range with short-term conditions leaning towards the downside with the main pressure from the EMA21. However, the downside momentum is currently limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, which is also the nearest support. If gold is sold below $3,228, it will have the prospect of continuing to decline with the next target around $3,163 in the short term. For gold to resume its uptrend, the necessary condition is that the price action needs to be pushed above the EMA21 and break above the raw price level of 3,300 USD. Although the main trend from the price channel has not been broken yet, the short-term outlook for gold is bearish, and the notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: 3,228 – 3,200 – 3,163 USD Resistance: 3,245 – 3,292 – 3,300 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3284 - 3282⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3288 →Take Profit 1 3276 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3370 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3165 - 3167⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3161 →Take Profit 1 3173 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3179
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
2025-05-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Can’t get more bullish than this but I am not willing to buy the exact high but rather would wait for a pullback. The only thing that we turn me neutral right now, would be a > -2% down day and close below 20800. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19700 - 20600 bull case: My lowest measured move target is 22350. Market should stay above 20000 if bulls want to get there and that’s likely all that’s important about the nasdaq for now. Clear breakout and follow-through. Bears gave up and we are again at peak euphoria. Invalidation is below 20000. bear case: Bears need a miracle below 20000. That’s it. Could this become a bull trap and an exhaustion gap? Always possible but I think it’s so unlikely that you can not make money betting on those odds. Path of least resistance is up, Opex or not. What I do think is that we could be close to the top of the channel we are in and we go sideways for the next days. I drew potential upper bull channel line but confirmation would only be if we don’t print anything above 21350 tomorrow. Invalidation is above 20400. short term: Neutral. Bulls grinding but for how many more tries? If that is bad English, you can suck my Bratwurst. medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year. trade of the day: Shorting new highs continues to print money.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
Kaspa on Its Path to Glory (TA + Trading Plan) + UPDATETechnical Analysis for KASPA (KAS) Current Price: 0.11268 USD Timeframe: 4-Hour Chart Indicators and Key Observations: Price Action: Kaspa is currently in an ascending triangle pattern, with price action approaching the resistance line, which has been tested multiple times without a clear break. This pattern indicates the possibility of a breakout if the price moves above the resistance line. Support Zone: The support level has been consistent, forming a base near 0.1070 USD. This is a crucial area where buying interest has been observed. Resistance Line: The price is approaching the resistance at around 0.1130 USD. A breakout above this level could signal bullish continuation towards higher targets (potentially 0.1900 USD as indicated by the chart’s blue arrow). Technical Indicators: VWC Cipher B Divergences: The indicator shows bullish signals, suggesting that price might continue to rise, especially if it successfully breaks the resistance line. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is sitting at around 52.96, indicating that the asset is neither overbought nor oversold. This gives space for potential bullish momentum. MFI (Money Flow Index): The MFI is relatively neutral, indicating that there is no immediate imbalance between buying and selling pressure. Stochastic Oscillator: The oscillator shows a potential bullish crossover, with the signal line moving towards the overbought zone. Trading Plan for KASPA (KAS) Entry Strategy: Long Entry: Consider entering a long position once the price breaks and closes above the resistance line around 0.1130 USD. Look for confirmation through a strong green candle to ensure momentum continuation. Target: The primary target for this trade is 0.18 USD, as indicated by the blue arrow in the chart. A second target can be placed near the psychological level of 0.20 USD, depending on market conditions and price action. Stop-Loss Strategy: Place the stop-loss slightly below the support zone, ideally around 0.1060-0.1070 USD, to protect against a false breakout. The stop-loss should be adjusted as the price moves in your favor to lock in profits. Risk-Reward Ratio: The risk-reward ratio for this trade is favorable, as the potential upside (0.18-0.20 USD) significantly outweighs the downside risk (stop-loss below 0.1070 USD). A risk-reward ratio of 2:1 or higher is ideal for entering the trade. Volume Confirmation: Ensure that the breakout above resistance is accompanied by an increase in volume. Low-volume breakouts can lead to false signals, so confirming the move with higher-than-average volume is crucial for a successful trade. Risk Management: As always, never risk more than 2% of your trading account on any single trade. Use proper position sizing and adjust your stop-loss accordingly to maintain a controlled risk profile. Recent News - Crescendo Upgrade 🚀 Today, Kaspa has rolled out its Crescendo upgrade, which boosts the network speed to 10 blocks per second. This is a major leap in scalability, enhancing transaction speed and efficiency. The upgrade is expected to drive greater adoption and increase investor interest, potentially providing additional support for the upward momentum in the KAS market. Kaspa (KAS) is showing signs of bullish momentum, with key technical indicators pointing to a potential breakout above resistance. The recent Crescendo upgrade adds further optimism for the coin's future prospects, making this an exciting trade to consider. Be sure to monitor price action closely and implement strict risk management strategies for optimal results.
CRYPTO:KASUSDLong
by elfabiiani
3
Markets turn their attention to US CPISafe-haven OANDA:XAUUSD fell nearly 3% on Monday (May 12) and continued to decline slightly in early trading on Tuesday (May 13), mainly due to the easing of market risk sentiment after the United States and China announced a temporary “ceasefire” in their trade war. According to a joint statement released by the United States and China on Monday, the United States will reduce the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods in April this year from 145% to 30%, and China will reduce the tariffs imposed on American goods from 125% to 10%. The new measures will take effect in 90 days. Gold prices fell more than 3% on Monday as risk sentiment improved after the US and China agreed to roll back tariffs for 90 days during talks over the weekend. This sent the US dollar soaring to its highest level in more than a month and global stocks rebounding strongly after the US and China reached an interim tariff deal. Meanwhile, gold sold off sharply as market sentiment began to shift back to risk assets, making the yellow metal less attractive. China and the United States announced in Geneva, Switzerland, that they have reached an important economic and trade agreement. Both sides will also further reduce tariffs on each other's goods, with the total reduction exceeding 100%. The breakthrough marks a major turning point in the years-long tariff war between China and the United States. After implementing the measures, the two sides will establish a mechanism to continue negotiations on economic and trade relations, Xinhua News Agency reported. Investors' attention turns to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due out on Tuesday for a gauge of the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Other key US data this week include the Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales. Economists expect the US CPI to have risen by 2.4% year-on-year in April. Excluding volatile items, the core CPI growth rate is expected to have been unchanged at 2.8% year-on-year. While the underlying market is under pressure from positive factors from trade to geopolitics, we (individual investors in the short term) still need to pay special attention to the erratic behavior of Do Nam Trung. A status line that brings tariff risks will push gold to increase strongly again. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, a drop below the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level would be a bullish signal for further downside with a target of around $3,163 in the short term, which is where the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level is located. In terms of momentum, gold is showing bearish signals as the RSI falls below 50 and the next target is the overbought zone, with the current RSI position, gold still has a lot of room to fall. The most important condition for gold to be able to be assessed to increase in price again is that it needs to bring the price activity above the base price of 3,300 USD, then the target could be 3,371 USD. Otherwise, with the current market position and context, the short-term downtrend is dominant. During the day, the possibility of a decline in gold prices will be noticed by the following technical positions. Support: 3,228 - 3,200 - 3,163 USD Resistance: 3,245 - 3,267 - 3,292 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3283 - 3281⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3287 →Take Profit 1 3275 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3369 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3220 - 3222⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3216 →Take Profit 1 3228 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3234
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Two Shots at NQ: Because One's Never EnoughAlright, here’s the game plan – because let’s be honest, the market loves nothing more than pretending to break out, then snapping back just to mess with us. 🔥 The Setup: I’m eyeing the Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (June 2025), and I’m giving myself two shots at this breakout. Yeah, I know – ambitious. But the market’s been playing hard to get lately, so I’m hedging my enthusiasm. 💡 Why Two Long Entries? Because, let’s face it, the first entry will probably get stopped out. I like to think of it as a “testing the waters” trade. If it works, great – I’m a genius. If not, well, it was just practice. First Entry (The Optimist): I’m jumping in if it breaks out, keeping the stop tight – because nothing says confidence like a cautious stop loss. Second Entry (The Realist): If the first entry faceplants, I’ll wait for the market to freak out and then calm down. Then, I’ll slide back in when it looks like it’s actually serious this time. 🧠 Managing the Chaos: Short-Term Target: The last high – because if it doesn’t clear that, what’s the point? Long-Term Target: The equal move – assuming the market doesn’t chicken out halfway. Stop-Loss: Snug and sensible, because I’d rather not watch my account do a disappearing act. Take profit targets are set where the equal move would complete – assuming the market cooperates for once. 💭 The Thought Process: I’m not here to pretend I can predict the future – if I could, I’d be on a yacht, not posting on TradingView. But this setup gives me two chances to be right, which is at least one more than usual. 🔥 Your Thoughts? If you’re also giving your trades a second (or third) chance, drop a comment. Or just let me know how your latest breakout fake-out went – because misery loves company. 😅
CME_MINI:MNQM2025Long
by natron
1
2025-05-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: If you are a bull and longed anything last week and market hit your 24000 target today, you either took profits at the top and were happy about it or you watched them burn. Now what should we expect when the market hits 24000 the next time? Will bulls willingly hold through another pullback, knowing that it could be 500+ points deep again? I highly doubt that. Usually markets reach their targets and spend more time there or overshoot some to run more stops. Today we did not see any of that, which makes me think this could very well be the exhaustive end of the move → exhaustion gap. current market cycle: broad bull channel or trading range - doesn’t matter since you trade them the same key levels: 22000 - 24100 bull case: Bulls need to find acceptance above 23700 and go sideways here. Another strong move below 23500 would mean the bull trend line is broken for good and market could test lower in search of bigger support. I don’t have any targets above 24000 for the bulls and since the pullback was that deep, I am having a hard time believing we could do anything much higher than 24100. With today’s price action, I expect bulls to retest 24000 and maybe some, just to run stops but I do think most bulls will take profits there and bears will short it aggressively again, since it was so profitable today. Invalidation is below 23300. bear case: Bears did good in closing the gap down to 23588, making this an exhaustion gap. They will likely short again above 23800 since it has been profitable all day. Only a very strong move above 24100+ would force more bears to cover and we could accelerate up. Therefor sideways 23000 - 24000 is my expect price action for this week. Could bears push it down further because we have Opex? No idea and you should never try to ask why markets are doing something because you will never know the answer. Below 23400 I expect 23000 to come fast. Invalidation is above 24100. short term: Neutral. 23000 - 24000 is the range I see for the next days or even weeks, until we get better selling pressure. Trade the bull channel until it’s clearly broken. medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp. trade of the day: Long Globex open was the obvious trade but shorting 24000 was the even better one. I did not think the short was obvious and I took too long to realize it’s strength and then my risk was bigger than I was comfortable with, so I let it go down without me. I caught another long afterwards for 120+ points.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 12 - May 16]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 3,210 USD/oz to 3,434 USD/oz, but immediately after that, the gold price dropped sharply to 3,274 USD/oz and closed this week at 3,325 USD/oz. The reason why the gold price was sold off at the end of the week was because the FED said it would not rush to cut interest rates, because inflation is potentially at risk of increasing due to the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration, while the US economy, especially the labor market, is also at risk of decline. This risks pushing the US economy into a state of stagflation. In addition, after the US and UK reached a trade agreement, the US side said that there will be more trade agreements with major economies in the near future. Notably, this weekend, the US and China also entered the first round of trade negotiations under President Trump in his second term in Switzerland. This has made many investors concerned that the cooling of the trade war will reduce the role of gold as a safe haven. Factors affecting gold prices next week: Federal Reserve (Fed) policy: The Fed currently keeps interest rates at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the market is waiting for new economic data (such as May CPI and employment report). If inflation continues to decline or there are signs that the Fed will cut interest rates in the near future, gold prices may be strongly supported. On the contrary, if the Fed maintains a "hawkish" stance (keeping interest rates high), gold prices may be under downward pressure. US-China trade negotiations: Optimism about the possibility of a trade agreement between the US and China (expected to be negotiated in Switzerland) is reducing the demand for safe haven gold. If there is positive news (forecast: tax reduction from 145% to 80%), gold prices may adjust down. On the contrary, if negotiations fail or tensions escalate, gold will increase sharply. Global instability: Geopolitical risks (such as Middle East conflicts, Russia-Ukraine tensions, India-Pakistan tensions) are still the driving force supporting gold prices. If there are unexpected developments, gold demand will increase. 📌Technically, gold prices next week are likely to fluctuate within the range of 3,200 - 3,400 USD/ounce, with the base scenario being sideways or slightly increasing. If gold breaks the trendline and surpasses the resistance level of 3435, the next level is that gold can conquer the old peak or create a new high. Meanwhile, if the support level of 3200 is broken, gold prices are at risk of falling deeply below the threshold of 3,100 USD/oz. However, factors such as US economic data, Fed policy, and developments in US-China negotiations will be the key to determining the trend. Investors need to closely monitor these events and apply flexible trading strategies. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,267USD Resistance: 3,351 – 3,371USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3402 - 3400⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3406 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3215 - 3217⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3211
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Liberation, Altercation & Boom: US China Trade talks CME_MINI:ES1! Pointing to our previously written blog post (Liberation, Altercation or Doom) on March 31st. A mix of all scenarios played out. Global universal tariffs with reciprocal tariffs layered on top. It resulted in a huge sell-off on April 2nd. After months of tit-for-tat tariffs and growing economic friction, the US and China have agreed to hit pause. In a joint statement that’s given markets some breathing room, both countries announced a 90-day suspension on a large portion of their punitive tariffs—an initial step toward dialing back tensions and restarting dialogue. Key Tariff Measures from US-China Joint Statement (90-Day Pause) US Tariff Reductions: Tariffs on Chinese goods were reduced from 145% to 30% for a 90-day period. 24 percentage points suspended, leaving a 10% base tariff in place. China Tariff Reductions: Tariffs on US goods reduced from 125% to 10% for the same 90-day period. China also suspends 24 percentage points of additional ad valorem duties. Retains a 10% baseline tariff on US imports. Non-Tariff Measures: China to suspend or remove all non-tariff countermeasures imposed since April 2. Includes sanctions on certain US companies. Lifts export controls on some critical minerals. Timeline & Commitment: Both parties agree to implement these actions by May 14. Commitment to continue trade and economic talks through a new bilateral mechanism. Talks may be held in alternating locations (US/China) or via third-party venues. No Agreement On: Currency policy. E-commerce “de minimis” exemptions. Sector-specific tariff frameworks. Future Key Dates and Timeline: May - Potential US semiconductor tariffs. May/June - Potential US pharmaceutical tariffs. July 8th - 90-day tariff lowering for "worst offenders" expires. July 14th - US tariffs on Mexican agriculture goes into effect. August 10th - US-China tariff relief expires. Was this really mutual or just a game of chicken? There’s an argument to be made that this is more of a tactical pause than a full reconciliation. With China’s GDP in purchasing power parity terms now surpassing that of the US, and its continued technological advancements across sectors like aerospace, semiconductors, and critical minerals, the balance of economic leverage is shifting. For investors, this isn’t just about tariffs—it’s about the evolving structure of global trade. Geopolitical undercurrents continue to shape the backdrop. China’s strategic influence in regional security, technology supply chains, and commodity access adds another layer to its negotiating position. Recent developments—such as China's reassertion of dominance in strategic corridors and growing control over key mineral exports—suggest its economic posture is becoming more assertive. This, in turn, has implications for US firms dependent on Chinese inputs or facing retaliatory restrictions. In short, the 90-day window presents a tactical opportunity, but the structural story remains complex. Investors would be wise to monitor not just tariff updates, but broader shifts in trade alliances, export controls, and supply chain vulnerabilities—especially in sectors like tech, energy, and defense-adjacent industries. ES Futures: ES Futures and risk on assets are positive across the board following this announcement. Key Levels: Key LVN/ Key LIS: 5861-5837.25 200 Day MA: 5872.99 0.786 Fib Retracement level: 5921.75 0.618 Fib Retracement level: 5688.75 pWkHi: 5741 mCVAL 2025: 5639.75 Expectations for the week ahead: US CPI and Retail Sales data on the docket this week along with slew of FED speakers. Scenario 1: Risk on ES Futures get back above 200-day moving average clearing the key LVN resistance zone and our key LIS, head towards 0.786 Fib retracement level before pulling back and consolidating for the remainder of the week. Example trade: Entry: 5861 Stop: 5837 Target: 5921.75 Risk: 96 ticks Reward: 243 ticks Risk/Reward ratio: 2.5 R Scenario 2: Further consolidation Markets consolidate below the key LVN resistance zone and prior weekly high. Example Trade: Entry: 5837 Stop: 5861 Target: 5741 Risk: 96 ticks Reward: 384 ticks Risk/Reward ratio: 4 R Glossary: VA: Value Area VPOC: Volume Point of Control VAL: Value Area Low C: Composite (used as a prefix: VA, VAL, VAH, VPOC, etc.) mC: micro Composite (used as a prefix: mCVA, mCVAL, etc.) LNV: Low Volume Node LIS: Line in Sand Important Notes: These are example trade ideas not intended to be a recommendation to trade, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions. Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
ChopFlow ATR Scalp Strategy (OBV EMA) on MNQThe ChopFlow ATR Scalp Strategy combines a low choppiness regime filter, on-balance volume with EMA confirmation, and ATR-based exits to capture quick micro-trends on the NASDAQ-100 E-mini (MNQ). Strategy Logic 1. Choppiness Filter: -Calculate the Choppiness Index over 14 bars. - Trade only when chop < 60 (trending or mildly trending market). 2. Order-Flow Confirmation: - Compute OBV and its 10-period EMA. - Long when OBV > OBV EMA and chop < threshold. - Short when OBV < OBV EMA and chop < threshold. 3. ATR-Based Exit: - Exit at a fixed multiple of ATR (stop and profit target both = 1.5 × ATR). How to Trade It 1. Confirm time chart with MNQ , preferably1-min chart. 2. Enable only the 17:00–16:00 CME session. 3. Look for low choppiness (< 60), then wait for OBV cross. 4. Enter with one-contract size, tight 1.5× ATR stops/profits. 5. Monitor DOM for liquidity shifts around entry levels.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by TheFuturesPlaybook
Gold - New All Time High in the making?market context and trend environment This 4-hour chart of Gold (XAU/USD) from OANDA illustrates a strong impulsive structure within a broader bullish trend. Following a sharp upward movement that broke through previous structure, gold formed a swing high before entering a corrective phase. The market has since pulled back and appears to be stabilizing near a zone of high confluence, suggesting potential for a renewed move to the upside. Price has respected key retracement levels, reinforcing the technical strength of this zone. fair value gap and fibonacci confluence A notable feature of this setup is the alignment between a visible fair value gap and the Fibonacci golden pocket zone, comprising the 0.618–0.65 retracement levels. This convergence of technical tools adds weight to the significance of the support zone around the 3,280–3,300 region. Fair value gaps represent inefficiencies in the market caused by strong institutional participation, while the golden pocket is historically known for acting as a magnet for reversals within trending markets. The presence of both in the same area increases the likelihood of price reacting positively here. liquidity sweep and structural reaction Before revisiting this key demand zone, price briefly swept below a local low, which may have served as a liquidity grab to fuel the next bullish leg. This liquidity sweep is followed by a sharp reaction, suggesting that downside pressure may have been absorbed by aggressive buyers positioned at the FVG and golden pocket. Price has since rebounded, and the subsequent price action shows a gradual formation of higher lows, hinting at a shift in short-term order flow back in favor of buyers. projection and bullish scenario The chart projects a potential bullish continuation move, with a series of higher lows anticipated to form en route to a break of structure above recent swing highs. Multiple buy-side liquidity levels (BSL) are marked, representing areas where buy stops are likely to be clustered. These zones offer clear targets for bullish expansion. The blue arrowed projection outlines a methodical stair-step advance, respecting interim levels before ultimately attempting to reach the prior high near 3,530. strategic framework and trader insight This chart offers a methodical roadmap for bullish continuation, rooted in the smart money framework of liquidity, inefficiency, and institutional order flow. The confluence between the fair value gap and Fibonacci retracement is particularly notable and serves as a key validation area for bullish traders. Rather than anticipating immediate breakout behavior, the projection emphasizes a progressive structure that aligns with how larger players tend to accumulate positions before moving the market. Patience and alignment with structure are emphasized as price prepares for a potential continuation move higher.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Louigi_24
99
#202519 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Day and I hope you are well. #btcusd - bitcoin comment: Can’t be anything but bullish. Weekly chart is clear as day and we are in the third leg up. current market cycle: bull trend inside a big bull wedge and we are close to the top key levels: 85k - 100k (if bears somehow manage to get below 85k again, we test 80k next) bull case: Upside will likely be limited to something below 120000 but bulls are in full control until we print below a higher low again. Bulls want 110000 and then some. It’s a clear bull wedge and longs above 100000 are tough because stop has to be at least 97000. It looks like we could accelerate up and get to 110000 faster but betting on it is a bad strategy. Any decent pullback to 100000 or 98000 will most likely be bought. Invalidation is below 96000. bear case: Bears can scalp this at best but tough way to make a living. They are not doing much because most will wait for a new ath or at least let the market get closer to 109000 and see better selling pressure. We are at the top of a potential channel up but until bears print something below 102000 again, it would be gambling to hope for a better pullback to sell. Invalidation is above 112000. short term: Bullish but buying at the very top is tough. Any long 100000 or 98000 is likely good, if it’s not during a crazy strong bear spike. medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-11: I expect a trading range 700000 - 100000 for longer. The current move above 100000 I see as a retest of the ath and it could overshoot but I doubt market can find acceptance there for longer. Only interested in shorts on anything above the 1h time frame.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
#202519 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: Market closed near the high of the week and we made a textbook double bottom below 56. Sometimes it’s not more complicated than that to take a trade. current market cycle: trading range on monthly tf and bear trend on the daily key levels: 58 - 64 bull case: 63 is my first bull target, followed by 64 and above 64.38 we likely test up to the bear trend line around 67. Best for bulls would be to keep the gap 59.8 - 60.3 open. Invalidation is below 58. bear case: If we drop below 58 again, it’s a clear descending triangle and we could do 56 or lower, again. Right now bears don’t have much since last week was bullish and closed at the highs. Best bears could get is a trading range 55 - 65, so they better keep making lower highs or they have to try again around 67 or higher. Invalidation is above 64.4 short term: Bullish for 63 or higher. No interest in selling down here. medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-11: 3 legs down on the weekly chart and market has printed a credible bottom around 55. I think we can test back to 65 over the next weeks.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202519 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: Not much changed last week so I do not change much of what I wrote then. Bulls want at least 20536 now and run all the stops from before the big sell-off. Bears are not doing anything at all, so bulls will likely get it. This could be a breakout-retest and I marked the area for that with the red rectangle. Small chance bears come around next week but for now it’s still too early to short. The bull wedge is about to break out over the next 1-2 days and if bulls stay above 19600, we should expect higher prices. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 19000 - 21000 bull case: 20536 and then 21000. Those are the next targets and bulls are in full control of the market. The measured move from the buy spike at the lows is around 22350 and it’s possible that we get there. I think we need to see a pullback and how deep that will be. If we get only another sell spike and immediate buying for higher highs, we can also assume much higher prices. Above 21100 there is no reason not to go for 23000. Nothing of this changed to last week. Bulls preventing the bears from getting any decent pullback, which is uber bullish. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: Problem for the bulls is, that we have not closed above the weekly 20ema for two weeks now and bears defending the prior lower high 20536. That was and will be my line in the sand next week. Gap close to it, we have no reason not to print a new ath but below19600 I think more bulls will give up, depending on the strength of the selling. As of now, nothing about the chart is bearish but one decent down day > -2% could change that. Invalidation is above 20620ish. short term: Neutral. Market went nowhere and trading on hope and fairy dust is not my thing. I wait. medium-long term - Update from 2024-05-11: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish. Now I assume we will be in a trading range 16000 - 23000 for much longer. Same update as for dax, I guess we could go down and sideways over the next weeks/months and then have another squeeze into year end. Stairs up, elevator down.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
#202519 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: Bull targets are met and we have 4 legs up. 5 even if you count the spikes at the lows. We can do higher but what are the odds? Market is overdue for correction again and given that we easily could do -20% from here, it will be a tough summer. Technically it’s still just bullish but I would not buy up here. Macro-schmackro-wise it’s reasonable to assume that most companies with any US/CN business are worse off than they were before “liberation day”. So my take on this is still a house of cards ready to be blown away by the next small breeze. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 22600 - 24000 bull case: 5 Consecutive bull weeks now. If you buy into this at the high, only God may help you. 24000 is the obvious target and it’s a coin flip if bulls can get it. What would make me turn bull? Nothing. Even if bulls print 24400, I would expect it to crash down in less than 2 weeks. Invalidation is below 22900. bear case: Two very small pullbacks last week and bulls bought it. Market is refusing to go down and we are still making higher highs. Nothing for the bears here until bulls are clearly exhausted and want out. Market turns more neutral with a daily close below 23000 and I think bearish only below 22600. Invalidation is above 24100. short term: Neutral. I wait for clear topping signals and more selling pressure. Long scalps against support if bulls want 24000. medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
Will gold reach an all-time high?Gold (XAU/USD) Market Analysis Trend Environment The 4-hour chart of Gold (XAU/USD) from OANDA illustrates a strong impulsive structure within a broader bullish trend. Following a sharp upward movement that broke through previous structure, gold formed a swing high before entering a corrective phase. The market has since pulled back and appears to be stabilizing near a zone of high confluence, suggesting potential for a renewed move to the upside. Key Levels Support Zone 3,280-3,300 region, characterized by a fair value gap and Fibonacci golden pocket zone (0.618-0.65 retracement levels). Potential Targets Higher lows and break of structure above recent swing highs, with buy-side liquidity levels (BSL) marking areas where buy stops are likely to be clustered. Technical Confluence The alignment of the fair value gap and Fibonacci retracement levels in the 3,280-3,300 region increases the likelihood of price reacting positively. Fair value gaps represent inefficiencies in the market caused by strong institutional participation, while the golden pocket is historically known for acting as a magnet for reversals within trending markets. Bullish Scenario The chart projects a potential bullish continuation move, with a series of higher lows anticipated to form en route to a break of structure above recent swing highs. A methodical stair-step advance is expected, respecting interim levels before ultimately attempting to reach the prior high near 3,530. Strategic Framework This analysis offers a methodical roadmap for bullish continuation, rooted in the smart money framework of liquidity, inefficiency, and institutional order flow. The confluence between the fair value gap and Fibonacci retracement serves as a key validation area for bullish traders. By understanding the technical and institutional drivers of the market, traders can better navigate the complexities of the gold market and identify potential opportunities for growth.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Peter_Wade
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Testing Key Resistance Levels - Weekly ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) is currently attempting an uptrend rally, bouncing up from the April 7th 2025 support level ($488) and weekly support trendline. The current resistance price level is $569 above, and the support price level below is $555. SPY price needs to remain and close above $522 in May 2025 to maintain the current uptrend rally. Resistance price targets above: $569, $578, $600, $610. Support price targets below: $555, $542, $533, $512. Tariff and trade deal news, corporate earnings, government law changes, and consumer sentiment will continue to affect the stock price action of SPY. Support price levels need to hold for an uptrend to continue in 2025.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
GOLD falls sharply then recovers slightly from key confluenceOANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply and recovered slightly, as expectations of more such deals increased after US President Donald Trump announced a “groundbreaking” trade deal with the UK, undermining the metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. The US and UK have reached a deal and markets are expecting more “tariff-free” avenues Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer jointly announce the signing of a trade deal • The UK will reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%; • The US will maintain a uniform tariff of 10% on UK imports; • The UK will further ease market access for US goods. The US and China will continue high-level talks this Saturday US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with top Chinese economic officials in Switzerland on Saturday to discuss the outlook for trade relations. Gold prices have hit record highs in recent months, largely due to global tensions caused by Trump's tariff policies. China's central bank allows banks to buy foreign currency to import gold, signaling potential support The People's Bank of China has approved commercial banks to buy foreign currency in the latest quota to pay for gold imports, supporting the possibility of increased physical gold demand in the market in the future. With the implementation of the US-UK agreement, the recovery of risk appetite in the market and the approaching US-China negotiations, the safe-haven demand for gold has temporarily eased, and technical downward pressure has also emerged. In addition, traders need to pay special attention to geopolitical developments with the focus on Russia - Ukraine when Ukraine has taken actions despite Russia's warnings on May 9. Any escalation of the conflict will immediately support gold's sudden price increase. Analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD technical outlook On the daily chart, after a sharp decline from the weekly target of $3,430, gold's decline has paused and recovered slightly from the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. The area around $3,292 is also an important support area as it is a confluence of important technical support factors, with the appearance of EMA21 (major support), the lower edge of the price channel which is the short-term trend price channel and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. As long as gold remains above $3,292, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, and in case gold falls below this level, it will likely test technical support at $3,267 in the short term, more than $3,245. For the day, with the current position, gold still has a bullish outlook, and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: $3,300 – $3,292 – $3,267 Resistance: $3,351 – $3,371 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3334 - 3332⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3338 →Take Profit 1 3326 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3320 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3259 - 3261⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3255 →Take Profit 1 3267 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3273
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
2025-05-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market closed where it opened, after the early rally from Globex to mid EU session and then another one after the US open bear trap. I could not believe that bulls would do another strong move up after such a rejection above 20250 but meh. Can they really do another tomorrow after yet another strong rejection? Until bears print lower lows, the answer is "probably”. Clear bull wedge and bears need to break below 19970 for more downside. If we stay above 20100 we can do higher highs until we ultimately hit 20536 or higher. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19700 - 20600 bull case: Bulls printed two amazing rallies and they we not enough to make meaningful higher highs and accelerate upwards. Usually that price action would have been enough for more bears to give up but once market began to stall on new highs, bulls vanished and bears overwhelmed them. I don’t have much for the bulls tbh. 5 tries and they are still failing. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: Bears need to break the bull wedge and print below 19970. That’s about it. The rejections from new highs are good but the follow-through is trash. Going below 19600 into the weekend is me next wet dream. Invalidation is above 20400. short term: Neutral. Bulls grinding but for how many more tries? If that is bad English, you can do you. medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year. trade of the day: Shorting new highs continues to print money.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds