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#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls see the green support line and want to keep it support and keep the market above 2300/2320. They stalled the market long enough that not enough bears want to push their luck, selling the lows here. They also managed to print 2 bars above the daily ema, which makes the market more neutral. comment: Keeping this very short bc the tl;dr almost covered it all. Trading range and a descending triangle. Huge support 2300 and until either that or the upper triangle bear line is broken, it’s as neutral as it gets. Buy low, sell high and scalp. 55/45 imo that bears get a breakout below but do you really want to bet on those odds? I don’t. current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2385 is broken. key levels: 2300 - 2385 / below 2300 comes 2270 in play bull case: Bulls keeping it above support but can not print consecutive daily closes above the daily 20ema. Will probably see a breakout over the next 1-2 weeks. Invalidation is below 2300. bear case: Bears need a strong break below 2300, that’s it. Invalidation is above 2385. outlook last week: “short term: Play the triangle if the support holds. ” → Last Sunday we traded 2331 and now we are at 2339. Triangle held. Good outlook. short term: Neutral. Play the triangle. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged current swing trade: None and won’t enter. Just scalps for me. Chart update: Made the support more obvious.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Ivory Coast Expects Cocoa Rebound Next Season on Better Weather Country expects to harvest 2 million tons in 2024-25 crop year Futures prices have dipped on improved cocoa crop outlook Ivory Coast’s cocoa output is expected to rebound next season — helping ease a global supply squeeze that pushed prices past records — as the world’s top grower banks on better weather. The West African producer is likely to harvest 2 million tons of the chocolate-making ingredient in the 2024-25 crop year that starts Oct. 1, according to people familiar with the matter, who cited early pod counting. The outlook for the upcoming year compares with the 1.8 million tons the International Cocoa Organization estimates the country will harvest by the end of the current season in September. Ivory Coast’s output averaged 2.2 million tons in the five years before 2023-24. The country has already sold 800,000 tons of the 2024-25 harvest on the forward market, the people said, asking not to be named because they were not authorized to discuss the matter. However, they added forward sales have since been paused by the industry regulator Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao. The CCC plans a combination of forward and spot sales in the future, as part of a marketing reform. A mix of bad weather, disease, and aging trees in top growers Ivory Coast and Ghana drove this season’s slump and saw New York cocoa futures soar past $11,000 a ton earlier this year. Prices have since eased on optimism about improving weather conditions in West Africa. Ghana is also expecting a better crop next season. Ivory Coast is also cracking down on the smuggling of cocoa beans to neighboring countries which will help boost supplies, said the people. An estimated 200,000 tons of beans were smuggled this season, they added. A spokesperson for the CCC declined to comment when contacted by phone on Friday.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOA
by Elite_Forex
GOLD recovers from $2,300, limited with main trendOANDA:XAUUSD recovered after falling to $2,300/ounce and rebounded to operate around $2,330/ounce. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds remained below 4.3% after the latest US data, helping gold prices rise on demand after the US Dollar weakened. OANDA:XAUUSD rose Tuesday after U.S. economic data showed a weaker-than-expected retail sales report led to curbs on consumer spending. This suggests the Federal Reserve could begin its easing cycle this year. The US Department of Commerce released retail sales data for May that improved compared to April. This data revived investors' hopes for an interest rate cut after the Fed signaled at its meeting. most recent meeting that current monetary policy is appropriate. Other data showed industrial production improved in May but was revised downward in April. In addition to economic data, Fed officials also speak at press conferences • New York Fed President John Williams said interest rates will gradually decline if deflation continues toward the Fed's annual core inflation target of 2%. While dodging questions about a September rate cut, he added: "I think things are moving in the right direction." • Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin appeared cautious, saying he would need to see more data before easing policy. Later, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she would not be enthusiastic about improving inflation data, adding that now is not the time to cut interest rates. • New St. Fed President Louis Alberto Mussallem said he needs to see how the deflation process progresses before voting to cut interest rates. He added that he favors raising interest rates if inflation stops, even though that is not his baseline forecast. While most policymakers are neutral, US Treasury yields reflect investors starting to evaluate a rate cut. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.219%. In addition to factors such as Macro Data and Fed officials, readers also need to pay special attention to issues such as geopolitical conflicts and precious metal trading activities of leading central banks, which This idea is always reminded through every publication sent to you. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold again recovered from the bearish price target area noticed by readers in previous publications at the support area of ​​2,305 – 2,300 USD. However, the recovery momentum is always limited by the resistance confluence created by EMA21, the 0.236% Fibonacci level and the upper edge of the price channel with the technical point 2,340 - 2,345USD. As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, its technical outlook remains bearish with the condition that a new bearish cycle will be ushered in once the $2,300 raw price level is broken below then target level. The target will be around 2,286 USD in the short term, more than the 2,272 USD price point of the Fibonacci 0.382%. During the day, the technical downtrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2351 - 2349 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2339 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
2024-06-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. gold comment: Daily ema at 2346 and we closed 2339. Bulls can’t close above it and bears can’t break below 2300. Today was strong enough for bulls to try and get a second leg. Measured move is up to 2375ish. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2300 - 2360 bull case: Bulls first target tomorrow is to stay above the 1h ema and then break above 2350. 2350 is big resistance until broken. If they manage to break it, high probability we see 2360+. Invalidation is below 2300. bear case: Need a break below 2300. No better arguments for their case. Bears kinda tried down to 2304 but market stalled so long down there, that bears just gave up before EU open and market just melted higher. Was this a buy vacuum produced by bears stepping aside, rather than strong bulls buying? Will find out tomorrow. Invalidation is above 2350. short term: Odds favor the bulls for a second leg up but 2350 is big resistance until broken. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long anything after bar 6 broke above the range and the 1h 20ema.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD traded slightly down, main technical trendEntering the first phase of the week, OANDA:XAUUSD decreased slightly due to high US interest rates making gold less attractive. Gold is on the defensive as US Treasury yields rose after Federal Reserve officials maintained a hawkish stance. Even so, the US dollar has not received any significant support, and in foreign exchange trading the Dollar is still weaker than other major correlated currencies. • Fed officials say there will only be one rate cut in 2024, via Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari. Over the weekend, the Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari discussed monetary policy, saying it was "a reasonable forecast that the Fed will ease policy by just 25 basis points (bps) in 2024." That would send US bond yields higher, making holding gold less attractive while the federal funds rate remains elevated. • Fed Harker said that based on his current forecasts, he believes a rate cut this year is appropriate, underscoring the signal that interest rates will likely remain high. “If everything goes as expected, I think a rate cut would be appropriate later this year,” Harker said. The data is fine." So we'll still rely on the data." • Philadelphia Fed President now predicts economic growth will slow but remain above trend and the unemployment rate will increase modestly. He also believes that returning to the Fed's inflation target will be a "long process." • China's central bank paused an 18-month gold purchase, which also put pressure on gold prices. China's central bank's gold holdings held steady at 72.8 million ounces in May. In addition, the market is also paying close attention to upcoming comments from New York Fed President John Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The US will release retail sales data on Tuesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday and preliminary purchasing managers index (PMI) data on Friday. These data are expected to help investors better understand current consumption levels and economic strength. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still trading modestly with a resistance confluence area created by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance at $2,345, the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and the upper edge. The price channel is the main pressure area. Meanwhile, the current technical trend of gold price is still leaning heavily towards the possibility of a price decrease with the main trend from the price channel. In the immediate future, the support levels for gold prices include 2,305 - 2,300 USD. If the original price level of 2,300 USD is broken below, it will open up conditions for a new decline in gold prices with the target at 2,286 USD in the short term. limit and more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level. As long as gold remains within the channel and below the EMA21, its technical outlook remains bearish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,324 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2351 - 2349 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2339 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Bulls got their expected pullback but on the daily it’s an inside bar. We are in a trading range and the market is probing for the fair price currently. Bulls want back to the highs again and bears want a second leg down to test the big bull trend line 19500ish. I expect more sideways price action tomorrow because I don’t think bears want bulls to get above 20000 before a second leg down. Above 20050 I’m wrong and we will probably get a retest above 20200 before another leg down. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 19700 - 20100 bull case: Daily inside bar for the bulls, which means trading range. The buying today was reasonably strong that bulls will try for 20000 tomorrow and if they can get above 20060ish, most bears will probably give up. Current small bull trend line from 19725 has to hold though. Invalidation is below 19830. bear case: Bears shorted new highs and despite the 1% gain, market was two sided. Bears also kept it below 20000 which is the obvious price that both sides will fight for. Bears would need to break the bull trend line from 19725 by either breaking below or sideways out of it. Since bulls are again in massive BTFD mode, sideways will probably the best bears can get tomorrow. If they fail at 20k, I don’t think they will fight for 20080 much harder and they could give up for a quick melt to 20200+ again. Invalidation is above 20080. short term: Neutral 19900-20000, bearish below, bullish above medium-long term: This climactic blow off top was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 16 + 4. Bar 4 was a huge huge bar and you had to get long there.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil comment: Trading range at the highs but bears printing bigger bars and they broke out of the bull channel that started 2 weeks ago. Measured move down would bring us to around the breakout retest price area 78.5 / 78.8. Bulls still want to break above 82 for 83/84 and test the bear trend lines again. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 80 - 82 bull case: Bulls still see this as a second leg of a pullback around the lower bull trend line and they want to start their third leg (W5) up to 83/84. They need to keep it above 80 or bears might get cheeky and want to push it to the daily ema around 78.8, which would also be a breakout retest. Invalid below 80. bear case: Bears are not able to print two decent looking consecutive bear bars on higher time frames. Until they get much stronger or give up again, best they can probably hope for is sideways around 80. Selling today looks like a leg inside a trading range and not a stronger pullback below 80. short term: Neutral 80-82. It’s moving sideways. Don’t make it more complicated. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Clear key levels given
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#BTCUSDT #1D (Binance Futures) Descending channel break & retestBitcoin is pulling back to 50MA daily support after forming a big bull flag, a bounce towards new ATH seems likely next. ⚡️⚡️ #BTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: Binance Futures Signal Type: Regular (Long) Leverage: Isolated (10.0X) Amount: 5.4% Current Price: 66989.1 Entry Targets: 1) 66666.6 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 75891.7 Stop Targets: 1) 62969.2 Published By: @Zblaba CRYPTOCAP:BTC BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P #Bitcoin #PoW bitcoin.org Risk/Reward= 1:2.5 Expected Profit= +138.4% Possible Loss= -55.5% Estimated Gaintime= 1 month
Long
by TradingOn
GOLD fell as the trading week kicked offLast week, world gold prices increased by 1.9% even though the Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of six other major currencies, increased by 0.6%. Gold prices rose after statistics showing softening inflation in the US reinforced the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates in September. After the CPI data dropped slightly, PPI also fell from 2.3% to 2.2% year-on-year, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets as a hedge against inflation. The FOMC maintained its inflation forecast for 2024-2025, but the new dot plot shows at least one rate cut this year, applying some much-needed temporary pressure to gold prices. Net gold positions on the COMEX have gradually declined since a peak on May 21, suggesting waning interest among money managers. XAUUSD retreated from the support zone at around $2,300 with weak momentum and consolidated just below the resistance zone at $2,350. If it sustains above $2,325, the price could test $2,350 and the high set on June 7. However, if it trends below the $2,300 support zone, XAUUSD could drop to the support level. next psychological aid. Support: 2,300 – 2,288USD Resistance: 2,325 – 2,335USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2338 - 2336 ⚰️SL: 2342 ⬆️TP1: 2331 ⬆️TP2: 2326 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2279 - 2281 ⚰️SL: 2275 ⬆️TP1: 2286 ⬆️TP2: 2291
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-06-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Expanding triangle on the 1h tf and that’s a form of a trading range. Big up, big down, big confusion, more sideways likely. 5530 is the most important price currently at about the middle of the range. Did the bears do enough damage today to expect follow through tomorrow? I don’t think so. They barely made another lower low. Selling down here is a bad trade. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 5500 - 5600 bull case: Bulls tried and failed at 5558 which qualifies as a decent lower high. Bulls need to stop the selling above 5500 or risk trading back down to the daily ema around 5460. They still see this as a minor pullback in the huge bull trend. Their problem is, that bears printed 3 consecutive bear bars now and broke the first bull trend line. It’s a bad buy here unless they get strong momentum going tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears doing good and trapping overly eager bulls in buying everything but the selling is not strong enough to question another retest of the highs. Until bears trade below the daily ema, they will be quick to exit shorts that lose momentum. Their next target is 5500 and then 5470, where we should hit the daily ema. If they also somehow manage to get below that level, the bull trend line will be tested next - around 5420ish. Invalidation is above 5560. short term: Neutral between 5500 - 5540, bullish above and bearish below medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Strong buying on bar 36 which was a decent buy since bears could not get below 5525. Triangle bar 37-47 and bar 48 was a good entry bar for shorts. Strong break below the triangle with follow through. Could have closed shorts on bar 56/57 because 4 consecutive bull bars but they had big tails above. If you held, could have been 100+ points.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
MarketBreakdown | Dollar Index, Silver, EURCAD, WTI Oil Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ Dollar Index #DXY daily time frame 💵 Dollar Index nicely respected a key daily horizontal resistance. We see a nice bearish reaction to that today. Because of the absence of important fundamentals, I think that DXY may keep staying under a bearish pressure. 2️⃣ Silver #XAGUSD daily time frame 🪙 The price action on Silver contracts. The market is currently stuck between 2 trend lines, forming a classic symmetrical triangle formation. Before the release of the news, the market will most likely stay within the triangle, respecting its upper and lower boundary. US fundamentals this week can be a catalyst for a breakout. The side of the breakout will indicate you the future direction of the market. 3️⃣ #EURCAD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇨🇦 The market is approaching a significant confluence zone based on a recently broken horizontal support and a trend line. The broken structures compose a supply zone from where we may see a bearish movement. Patiently analyze the reaction of the price to that on lower time frames and look for a confirmation to sell. 4️⃣ #WTI CRUDE OIL 🛢️ The market is currently stuck between 2 horizontal structures within a narrow range. I will wait for a breakout of one of the structures to confirm where the market will go next. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:DXYShort
by VasilyTrader
1
BTC can tap 7,000 to 10,000 and this is WHYDXY is completing a major bearish retest currently - on the minute time frames. This breakdown is a multi-month trendline, and what the DXY / Bitcoin correlation would indicate, is that we can expect an extended bull run of 1-2 years. This rise in bitcoin has been a straight shot up on the high time frames. What this tells me is that this move is a bearish retest. Identifying this trendline on BTC chart - price is underneath the breakdown line at 63,850. There are many large open order gaps on the BTC chart below the current price. These open gaps are filled with long position stop losses. These are leveraged sell orders. It is possible that Bitcoin will drop to hit 8,000 in a very short amount of time. 1. We are underneath the breakdown line 2. There are enough stop loss orders (leveraged sells) to create an automatic chain reaction of a drop to that low level. The lack of retracement on BTC over the last 1.5 years shows intention to leave these order blocks intact so that speed of this move is generated. 3. DXY indicates a justification for this move to occur as reason to drop a bearish pattern over a long term period isn’t showing. I encourage you to stay open minded to this possibility. I logically can see this happening very quickly.
Short
by DickDandy
#202426 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: What do the bears have going for them? Nothing and if anything, pure speculation and low probability stuff. The chart is showing multiple wedges, we are clearly in multiple third pushes up (W5) and volume is drying up. Once the institutions begin taking profits on the magnificent 7, we will see big moves down to end the trend and enter a trading range. The bull trend line around 5300 will be hit in the next 2-4 weeks and afterwards I think we will form a lower high before we will be on our way to 5000 again. As of now I think bears want to see a big climactic bull bar to 5600 before they begin shorting again. comment: Market did exactly what I wrote in my last bear case sentence. Climactic bull bar on Monday with some follow through Tuesday and Wednesday to almost 5600 and then a pullback. Bulls touched the big upper bull trend line which began on 2023-02-02. Bears broke below the very tight bull channel but just so slightly and with tails below the daily bars. I expect the market to retest the highs again before another second leg down, which could then form into a decent pullback, like the one we had in April. Market sentiment is max bullishness from everyone everywhere and the posts about “this time it’s different” have become common. It’s the fomo phase where your Mother asks if she should buy some Nvidia stocks. current market cycle: End of the bull trend is near. Will soon see a bigger pullback. key levels: 5400 - 5600 bull case: Bulls will probably retest the highs or even make a higher high soon. First pullbacks / low 1, is a buy signal in a bull trend. After that retest, I - again, have nothing for the bulls. We are at the peak of this bubble imo and that’s where you get cautious and not even more bullish. Nvidia will touch 100 over the next weeks, if not days. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: The profit taking has begun imo. All bullish targets are met and we are trading at multiple upper resistance lines and prices. The daily ema is 80 points away and will get tested soon. Bears see the 3 pushes up from end of May and now want a decent pullback to the bull trend line around 5400, wich is also the breakout retest. Invalidation is above 5620. outlook last week: No interest in buying here unless it’s a momentum scalp. I will look for weakness and a trade back to a test of the daily 20ema which is around 5400. Bulls are still heavily favored in terms of probability. → Last Sunday we traded 5502 and now we are at 5534. New ath was 5587, so my outlook was good for 85 points. You. Are. Most. Welcome. Compare that to Newsletters who cost 130$ per month and include planetary constellations in their market analysis. short term: Don’t get too bearish too soon. You never want to try to pick a top or a bottom. Let the big bois with endless money do that for you and follow along. Expecting another push for retest of the highs, followed by another leg down, as painted in my chart. medium-long term: Bull trend is in the last legs and this will soon pull back much further and form a big trading range. I gave 5600 months ago and we are close enough to it or will touch it next week. Afterwards the money is made on the downside. 5300 over the next 1-2 weeks, followed by 5000 over the summer. current swing trade: None but will enter new shorts next week. Chart update: This is my best guess on how the next 3-9 months will play out. Two-legged correction down to 5000 over the next 4-8 weeks, followed by a last lower high before the next big bear trend will begin. That’s only price-wise but not time wise. Could get there much faster or much slower.Update: slightly adjusted the bigger two legged correction and added a smaller one.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD limits recovery, after CPI, FOMC and Powell's statementOANDA:XAUUSD fell slightly during the Asian session on June 13, following the US CPI data report and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The 0.236% Fibonacci level limited the recovery momentum of gold price to keep it in the price channel. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) in May increased 3.3% year-on-year, down from the previous value and the expected value is 3.4%; unchanged from the previous month, 0.1% lower than expected and also lower than the previous value. Values ​​slowed significantly to 0.3%, the lowest level since July 2022. Excluding food and energy costs, May core CPI increased 3.4% over the same period, lower than the expected 3.5% and lower than the previous 3.6%, the lowest level in more than 3 years. year; The increase in May increased from 0.3% in April to 0.2%, weaker than the 0.3% expected. These data coincide with a deceleration in core CPI in April and may represent the early stages of inflation returning to a downward trend. However, Fed policymakers have emphasized that they will need to see price pressures abate for several months before considering lowering interest rates, especially as the latest jobs report sparks a debate. discuss the extent of policy limitations. The report was released hours before the Federal Reserve ended its two-day policy meeting in Washington. The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for the seventh straight time on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. The Fed's Dotplot chart shows that it is expected that the agency will only cut interest rates once in 2024. Markets expected the Fed to adopt more supportive policies, but US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers reduced plans to cut interest rates three times in March to 2 times after a 2-day meeting. The committee also signaled that it sees longer-term interest rates higher than previously suggested. The new forecast released after a two-day meeting this week showed inflation still on track to return to the Fed's 2% target, allowing for some policy easing later this year. The statement after the meeting said: "Inflation has eased over the past year but remains high." The only significant change is that the new statement continues to say that "more modest progress has been made in recent months toward the FOMC's 2% inflation target." While the previous statement was "lack of further progress" on inflation. On the same day Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized in a press conference that the Fed was not yet confident in starting to cut interest rates, but also said that no one considered a rate hike an expectation. basic. Powell's statement can be interpreted as keeping interest rates high for longer but ruling out a rate hike. Overall assessment, CPI data has boosted gold prices in the short term, but after the FOMC announcement and Powell's statement reduced the possibility of gold price recovery because the USD became attractive, when the possibility of interest rates The high will last for a longer period of time. The fundamental picture after yesterday's trading day temporarily leans more towards the possibility of creating pressure on gold prices, but traders also need to pay attention to other unexpected impacts from geopolitical news. is still smoldering in many parts of the world. Gold is often supported when geopolitical risks escalate. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold's recovery yesterday, it was capped by key resistance that readers noticed in the previous issue at the $2,340 - $2,345 area, the price range of this level. Fibonacci retracement 0.236%. Gold's fall below $2,324 continues to provide prospects for it to test the $2,300 base and once the $2,300 base is broken below gold will be eligible for a new bearish cycle. with the latter target around $2,286 in the short term, more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level. That said, the original price level of 2,300 USD is also the closest current support worth noting. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish with notable technical levels as follows. Support: 2,300 – 2,286USD Resistance: 2,324 – 2,340USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2338 - 2336 ⚰️SL: 2342 ⬆️TP1: 2331 ⬆️TP2: 2326 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2279 - 2281 ⚰️SL: 2275 ⬆️TP1: 2286 ⬆️TP2: 2291
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [June 17 - June 21]OANDA:XAUUSD maintained a steady recovery before the weekend, but the overall trend remained unclear as US consumer confidence continued to decline and inflation expectations remained high. COMEX gold futures (including electronic trading) closed up 1.31% at $2,348.40/ounce, up 1.01% this week. On Friday, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index fell to 65.6 from a revised 69.1 in May. The data was weaker than expected, with expectations for the index at around 72.1. The new divergence between the Fed's interest rate forecast and market expectations could bring some volatility to the gold market in the short term. The latest economic forecast shows the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates once this year, down from three as forecast in March. The Fed's interest rate forecast, also known as the Dotplot, shows the federal funds rate will be above 5.00% by the end of the year. “Inflation has eased over the past year but remains high,” the Fed said in its monetary policy statement. In recent months, inflation has made some progress toward the FOMC's 2% target. Gold should still receive good support as central banks remain solid buyers despite data from the People's Bank of China showing their gold reserves did not increase last month. China is the main driving force behind the increase in gold prices over the past year, and China's gold purchases have only been assessed as temporary and there has not been any move to show that they have "stopped". could also be a move to avoid paying a record high purchase price. Another piece of data worth noting is US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showing that in the week to June 11, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts decreased by 6,200 lots down to 177,549 lots. Economic data next week will be relatively soft, and the technical price trend of gold will receive more attention. The market will get some preliminary and regional manufacturing data as well as some US housing data. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold recovered from the support level of 2,305 - 2,300 USD that readers noticed last week, in general the recovery momentum is still limited and the downtrend has not been broken. The recovery momentum of gold price is limited by the confluence area of ​​the technical point 2,345USD, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the upper edge of the price channel and the EMA21 moving average. In general, this will be the area where the gold price has all the important technical pressures for a technical downtrend. As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish, while if gold breaks below $2,324 it will have room for more downside with the following target level That's about 2,305 - 2,300USD in the short term. A new bearish cycle is expected to be ushered in once gold breaks below the original price of $2,300, and the subsequent short-term target level is $2,286 more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. Next week, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish with the following notable technical levels. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 📌Short-term trading plan for next week (illustrated chart): In the immediate future, we will consider selling if the price rises to 2365, buying if the price drops to 2260.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-06-20 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Interesting trading day to say the least. Globex rallied 27 points to 5587 where it stalled for couple of hours and then before US opened the floodgates were opened. Just strong selling throughout the day with huge bull spikes in between. Bears accomplished a drop of 23 points from open to close, that’s just weak but Globex high to daily low was 62 points. The 15m 20ema was decent today and bulls kept it above the important bull trend line and still far above the daily ema which is at 5450, so 100 points to go. Market has formed a triangle at the lows, which will probably just break out sideways in the Globex and EU session. Since tomorrow is Globex, I have no opinion on where we close the week tbh. Rough guess is at least a close below 5560 but I prefer a close below the bull trend line and below 5500 but that’s low probability. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 5500 - 5600 bull case: Bulls want to stay above 5540 which is my big orange support line. If they fail here, they will most likely also fail at the bull trend line and then 5480/5500 will come fast. Bulls bought every new low today and made money on lower time frames but they could not close above the 15m 20ema. That will be their first target for tomorrow and then above the 1h ema. I expect a pullback tomorrow and depending on how strong it is, another leg down or total melt up to 5600 into opex. Invalidation is below 5520. bear case: Bears had a decent day today. Naturally they want a second leg down, which would bring us to around 5460/5470, which would be my preferred close of this week. Since we are at bigger support, I don’t have much confidence in the bears. Need to see tomorrows price action in EU session. Invalidation is above 5560. short term: Neutral here between 5520 - 5560, bullish above and bearish below medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting every pullback near the 15m ema was decent.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD will have unexpected fluctuationsOANDA:XAUUSD delivered immediately increased for the second consecutive trading day, gold price once reached 2,320 USD/ounce. Today (Wednesday), the market will receive the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and US CPI data, which is expected to explode the market. The latest big news comes from ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East. An Israeli official said Israel had received Hamas's response to the ceasefire proposal through relevant mediators, but believed that Hamas had revised "all the fundamental content" of the proposal and Change the content of this proposal. The proposal outline was previously announced by US President Biden. Israel took this to mean that Hamas had rejected the ceasefire proposal. This news has helped gold attract some safe-haven buying activities, pushing gold prices higher in the context that the Dollar is still stronger. U.S. CPI Data and Federal Reserve Decisions Coming Soon US May CPI data will be released a few hours before the Fed's decision. If inflation stays stable, that could allow the dollar to start to gain traction first. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will likely be asked about the data at a post-FOMC press conference. On Wednesday, the United States will release the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. US monthly CPI growth in May is expected to decline from 0.3% to 0.1%, but monthly core CPI growth is expected to remain steady at 0.3%. Additionally, US annual CPI growth in May is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4%, while core CPI growth is expected to decline from 3.6% to 3.5%. On Thursday, the FOMC will release its interest rate resolution and summary of economic expectations On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. Given policymakers' stance of "higher interest rates for longer," the market is almost certain that the FOMC will not act at this week's meeting. So the focus will be on the post-meeting statement and the new interest rate forecast. In March this year, the Fed's Interest Rate Dotplot showed that policymakers predicted that the policy rate would be cut by a total of 75 basis points in 2024. An upward revision is possible. That's because most policymakers say they are in no hurry to start reducing borrowing costs. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch" tool, the market expects the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year is nearly 55%. Today is a very important trading day because it is directional from big data such as CPI and FOMC events, first gold and dollar will be affected by CPI data and then FOMC. If CPI data is better, this will boost the US Dollar but then if the FOMC shows the prospect of a rate cut then this will boost gold prices. A rather complicated trading day with two major events in the geopolitical context showing signs of supporting gold prices. Short comments will be sent to you as data and events are released, hopefully in time with your trading timing. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered to above its original price of 2,300 USD, but it is temporarily limited as it has not yet reached the target level at the technical point of 2,324 USD, as noted by readers in yesterday's publication. However, the overall technical chart still shows a bearish picture with all the conditions from the main trend highlighted by the price channel and the main resistance from the confluence area of ​​the upper edge. price channel, 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and EMA21. In case gold falls below the original price of 2,300 USD, the recovery cycle has generally ended with the target price reduction then being around 2,286 - 2,272 USD. As long as gold remains within the channel and below the EMA21, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,305 – 2,300 – 2,286USD Resistance: 2,324USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2341 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2345 ⬆️TP1: 2334 ⬆️TP2: 2329 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2267 - 2269 ⚰️SL: 2263 ⬆️TP1: 2274 ⬆️TP2: 2279
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
2024-06-18 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Nothing fancy to report here either. Market is in balance and bulls poking at 5560. They want a break above for 5600 and will probably get it soon. Bears shorting the resistance at 5558ish and making money but will be quick to give up, if this trades above 5563/5565. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. key levels: 5540 - 5600 bull case: Perfect buying at the 1h 20ema today for another ath 1 point above. Bulls want 5600 next. I leave room for 1 more leg up but that’s it. No more after that. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears need to stop the higher highs and trade below the 1h 20ema. Until they do that, max bullishness. Don’t make it more complicated. Can literally buy every pullback and make money. Invalidation is above 5565. short term: As bullish as one can be. Ride it up. 1 More leg possible to 5600 but that should be it. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 5543 or near the 1h ema or literally every 15m bear candle and scalp.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds