BOE may still warn of inflation, GBPUSD raises new targetThe British pound (GBP) will continue to outperform after the Bank of England signaled that it will maintain its restrained approach to interest rate cuts.
Bank of England Governor Bailey said the central bank needs to be careful not to cut interest rates too quickly or too much. He also said that since the August meeting, inflationary pressures in the UK have continued to ease and overall economic performance is in line with expectations.
The Bank of England certainly seems not to be on the Fed's side and will not send a signal to lift its inflation warning. The British pound will likely continue to perform well in the near term, based on fundamentals.
On the daily chart, OANDA:GBPUSD in the main uptrend with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 level as the main support.
The current position of GBP/USD above the 0.50% fibonacci extension shows that it could still continue to increase briefly in the near term with the 0.618% Fibonacci level, 1.33717 price point as the target.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up but has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still a bit of room for price growth ahead.
As long as GBP/USD remains within the price channel, the main outlook will remain bullish and in the short term notable levels for a bullish outlook are listed below.
Support: 1.33009 – 1.32301
Resistance: 1.33717
Futures
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Bulls got a clean breakout but they need follow through on Monday/Tuesday. The current channel fit’s nicely but we only know market is respecting it when we see a pullback. If this breakout is strong, bulls would not let the market fall below 2600 again. A weaker trend would pull back to the daily ema around 2600 before continuing. As long as we hold above the daily ema there is a very good chance we will see 2700 next. Small chance this trend is accelerating and breaking above the drawn channel and we would see 3 strong legs up which could lead to 2800.
Quote from last week:
comment: Finally the breakout above and the 2600 print. All bullish targets are now met for me so no interest in buying this high. I think the odds that bulls break above the wedge and start a new bull rally are very low and much more likely is a trap over the next 1-5 days and then a reversal down to at least 2540. That’s all I have to write about this right now.
comment: I always think about wrong outlooks much more than about right ones. In this case, was the “no interest in buying this high“ the right call here and I would come to a yes in every scenario. Of course it was wrong and market made another 50 points but risk reward was so off, not taking it was the right move for me. Anyhow. Bulls confirmed another bullish structure and we have a bull wedge inside a very bullish channel upwards.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 2570 - 2700
bull case : Bulls had the fastest and most shallow two legged pullback there is on Tuesday/Wednesday and continued with max bullishness for 2650. By now every bear has given up and we will truly find out how high this can go over the next months. As of now my preferred pattern is the bull channel and since we are at the highs, bulls would need another strong bar like Friday to break above it. Can they get it? Absolutely. Am I betting on it? No.
Invalidation is below 2570.
bear case: No idea where and how strong they come around. Will most likely be more bulls taking profits rather than strong selling. Lower bull trend line is 50 points lower and I doubt we hit it on Monday. Buying 2640 is a bad trade and bears know it but I rather wait and see where we go. On the 1h tf we have not traded below it since Thursday’s Globex session. Currently very hard for bears to make money so make your life easier and look for longs.
Invalidation is above 2660.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. I need to see bear strength before selling this. No interest in longs above 2600.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2610 and now we are at 2646. Meh outlook because bulls were much stronger and broke above again but I also advised against shorts until bears come around. They did not.
short term: Neutral. I won’t be buying 2646. Need a pullback.
medium-long term: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Added bull wedge.
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Similar structure to dax. Nested bull wedges inside a big broad bull channel. The current bullish structure has a potential to lead to much much higher prices but I favor the trading range continuation more. The bull wedge will break over the next 2-3 days and we will likely have an answer on the next direction. Bulls need a strong break above 5800 and bears below 5670.
Quote from last week:
comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well.
comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels: 5670 - 5850
bull case: We are trading around the ath. Will the market find more buyers to push this even higher? We are inside nested bullish patterns and bulls are favored but buying near the ath without a better pullback is not the best trade you can do right now. On lower tf you can find reasonable longs but not on the daily. I’d rather wait for a breakout of the smaller wedge and see where the market wants to go. I do think bulls can print 5800 and some next week. Most outrages target I have on sp500 is 6144 but I will only address this once bulls close a weekly bar above 5800.
Invalidation is below 5670.
bear case: Bears want the breakout below the wedge and test the daily ema around previous support 5670. If they are strong, they could hit 5600 next week but as of now the bears have nothing to support this but hope. Best they can probably get is some sideways around 5760.
Invalidation is above 5810.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5629 and now we are at 5762. I leaned bearish but only if… If never came true since bears could not get a lower low all week. My read that above 5670 it’s a long, was good for 110.
short term: Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Only bullish pattern left and added an outrages measured move target.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 23 - Sep 27]This week, after opening at 2,579 USD/oz, the international gold price dropped to 2,546 USD/oz, but then continuously increased sharply beyond the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz to 2,625 USD/oz and closed the week. at 2,622 USD/oz.
International gold prices increased sharply because the FED cut interest rates by up to 50 basis points and signaled that it would further cut interest rates by about 200 basis points in the next 2 years. FED Chairman Powell said the FED will not rush to sharply loosen monetary policy and noted that the FED is currently in the process of readjusting its monetary policy.
Mr. Powell's comments show that the FED will not be too hasty in cutting interest rates, but will adjust monetary policy according to a specific roadmap. This may somewhat cause confusion among investors, causing them to take profits from gold investments that have yielded large profits, causing gold prices to adjust and accumulate in the short term. However, with the FED's roadmap to cut interest rates, gold prices are expected to continue to increase sharply in the near future.
📌Technical analysis indicators, such as MACD, RSI... are showing that gold price is in the overbought zone in the short term. However, the upward momentum of gold prices is still there, with no signs of reversal. The attractive area for gold prices seems to be the round block of 3,000 USD/oz, corresponding to the Fibo level of 261.8 calculated according to the Weekly chart.
From a narrower perspective, looking at the H4 chart, in the immediate future, the gold price may continue to maintain its upward momentum to conquer the next resistance level around 2,690 - 2,700 USD/oz, before decreasing and adjusting again.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.595 – 2.600 – 2.610USD
Resistance: 2.645 – 2.624USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2691 - 2689⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2695
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2519 - 2521⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2515
GOLD surpassed the 2,600 USD/oz markOANDA:XAUUSD increased sharply in the trading session on Friday (September 20), with spot gold prices officially surpassing the important barrier of 2,600 USD/oz for the first time in history. The possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continuing to cut interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East act as direct catalysts for this breakthrough in gold.
At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market increased by 36.3 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of 1.4%, closing at 2,622.4 USD/oz.
The Fed's move to lower interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday is "fueling" gold prices. This precious metal is a non-interest bearing asset, so it benefits in a falling interest rate environment.
According to data from CME's FedWatch Tool, interest rate futures traders are betting on a 100% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in both its November and December meetings.
In addition, this year, global investors are also actively buying gold to hedge against lingering geopolitical risks in the Middle East and some other places. The trend of net buying gold by central banks to diversify foreign exchange reserves away from the USD also contributed greatly to the increase in gold prices.
Israel announced that it had killed a senior commander and important figures of Hezbollah in an airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, raising concerns about the risk of widespread war in the Middle East. However, US President Joe Biden still believes that the possibility of reaching a ceasefire agreement for the Gaza Strip is realistic.
Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased 26%, the largest increase in a year since 2010. Some analysts believe that this record increase in gold prices may soon turn into a correction state.
The Dollar Index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six other major currencies, increased 0.12% on Friday, closing at 100.74 points. However, the index has decreased 0.37% this week and decreased nearly 4.8% in the past 3 months - according to data from MarketWatch.
GOLD continues to be strong, geopolitical tensionsOn Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, starting an easing cycle and gold prices rose accordingly. Traders are ignoring the rise in US Treasury yields, which are inversely correlated with gold, and gold is still aiming for $2,600 raw price or perhaps a new all-time high. grand.
Readers can review the Federal Reserve's policy analysis in yesterday's publication linked below.
Tensions in the Middle East and ceasefire negotiations are positive for gold
“Gold is considered a safe haven in times of political and economic uncertainty, and because gold is not subject to interest, it often thrives in low interest rate environments.”
The Wall Street published an exclusive report on Thursday, local time, The Wall Street said senior US officials had said a ceasefire and hostage release was within reach, but now here they admitted that they did not expect Israel and Hamas to attend.
"There is no chance of achieving this now," the Saudi official said shortly after the pager attack on Hezbollah. "Everyone is waiting and watching to see what happens after the election. Conclusion The results will determine what the next government can do."
Failure to reach an agreement will harm the "job" of current President Biden. According to Gaza's Health Ministry, the war has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, mostly women and minors.
According to the latest report by Agence France-Presse, Lebanese Minister of Public Health Firas Abyad said that communication equipment explosions occurred in many places in Lebanon on September 17 and 18 local time. , leaving 37 people dead and nearly 3,000 injured.
On September 19, Hamas issued a statement thanking Hezbollah for its support in Lebanon. Hamas said that Hezbollah's resolute stance in Lebanon "has undermined Israel's efforts to sabotage the resistance movement in the Gaza Strip."
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
After adjusting and recovering, gold currently has all the conditions to aim for the target increase at the original price point of 2,600 USD that was previously achieved.
In the short term, $2,600 will remain the target resistance, however once gold breaks above the $2,600 base price it could continue to rise another $12 to test the 0.786% Fibonacci extension.
The uptrend will still be the main trend with the price channel and support from EMA21. As long as gold remains in the price channel, price drops should only be considered short-term corrections without damaging the main trend. .
Maintaining above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension is also a positive signal for gold prices in the short term technically.
During the day, the bullish outlook will be noticed by the following levels.
Support: 2,582 – 2,575 – 2,561USD
Resistance: 2,600 – 2,612USD
In the current trading environment, large fluctuations often occur. It can be said that these fluctuations are so large that looking for so-called optimal entry positions too close will bring the risk of being "swept out". "
Therefore, along with finding reasonable entry locations, optimization also needs to be emphasized in the process of controlling volume and transaction density.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2616 - 2614⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2620
→Take Profit 1 2609
↨
→Take Profit 2 2604
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2564 - 2566⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2560
→Take Profit 1 2571
↨
→Take Profit 2 2576
2024-09-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Big news first. There is no reason why markets could not continue higher.
Tis what I wrote yesterday. So you have been warned I guess.
Indexes - Huge gap up and go on most markets during the Globex and EU session. Right now we are mostly trading between the 15m and 1h 20ema and that’s my absolute worst spot to trade. Markets held at the highs and closed there, so bulls have all the arguments on their side, yet tomorrow is Opex and those max bullish options probably won’t be green at the end of tomorrow. So now bullish outlook from me after today.
dax futures
comment: Another one. Gap up today and market kept going. 19000 (xetra) is a nice round number and we could stall here or reverse. Another higher target would be 19260 (big green bull trend line on the daily chart). This would also align with the futures ATH at 19204 while futures are trading around 30 points above xetra. Long story short, don’t sell this yet. After such a strong day you simply can not hold a bearish bias.
current market cycle: broad bull channel but also a big trading range on the daily chart on futures
key levels: 18800 - 19200
bull case: Bulls had an amazing day. Futures ath from May is 19204 and there is no reason we can not get it. Tomorrow is opex and those days are always special. Don’t get trapped tomorrow and only take AAA setups.
Invalidation is below 18600.
bear case: Bears gave up during the globex session. They would need a strong 1h close below 18900 and then a gap close to 18730 to have better arguments. On the 1h tf we are currently in the C of the two legged correction and right at the 1h 20ema. It’s a buy signal if bulls reverse and we could go sideways overnight. Don’t get trapped into taking those kind of bad shorts. Some bears argue that we are at the top of the trading range on the daily/weekly chart and at the top of the current bull channel on 1h chart. Is this enough to sell this? Not after such a strong day today. You need confirmation below the 1h ema.
Invalidation is above 19100.
short term: Neutral but mostly looking for longs until bears trade below 18900. Bulls are in full control but that does not mean I want to buy high in hopes of going higher.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Market held strongly above 18800 with many tries to get below. Bar 32 was a give up bar by the bears and a decent buy signal. You were then buying high in a trading range but the context was good enough to expect at least 18920 but market never looked back. 19040 was also clear resistance and shorting this price was profitable many times today.
ES, SPX - Santa Rally could trigger Cup & Handle patternA strong end to Q4
Window dressing by fund managers who were underweight equities
would trigger a cup handle pattern
breaking the trendline of the pattern is around 4600 on the #ES
I could also make an argument for HVF pattern we have a high 3 in place
A recession will no doubt rear it's head at some point ...
but a blow off top first to hand bears a beating is definitely a scenario I have shared before.
After Powell's speech, GOLD prices plummetedAfter the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery soared to 2,600.15 USD/ounce, reaching a new era record high. But after Powell's speech, gold prices plummeted, currently trading around 2,563 USD/ounce. Powell said at the press conference that the 50 basis point rate cut “is not a fixed pace of new rate cuts.”
On Wednesday local time, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting in Washington, lowering its target range. target the federal funds rate down to 4.75%-5%. This is the first time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates since March 2020.
Fed officials expect interest rates to fall to 4.4% by the end of 2024 and to 3.4% in 2025. This decision to cut interest rates was not supported by all FOMC members.
The statement shows that one person voted against the 50 basis point rate cut and Fed Governor Bowman, who voted against it, supported the 25 basis point rate cut.
Thus, Bowman became the first Fed governor since 2005 to vote against the decision of a majority of FOMC members at the FOMC interest rate meeting.
Summary of Jerome Powell's speech
Powell said: "We are recalibrating our policy stance; nothing in our (economic) forecasts suggests that we are rushing to act; Fed economic forecasts are basic forecasts; the actual actions we take will depend on how the economy develops. If appropriate, we can speed up or slow down the pace of interest rate cuts , or even choose to pause; this 50 basis point cut does not mean we are rushing to act.”
“I don't see any signs right now that the likelihood of a recession has increased,” Powell said. I don't see that. You will see the economy growing at a steady pace, see inflation decreasing. You'll see the workforce, the market remain at a very stable level, so I don't see that right now."
Powell's indication that if appropriate, the Fed could speed up or slow down the pace of rate cuts, or even choose to pause this 50 basis point rate cut, does not indicate the Fed is ready to act. This has damaged market sentiment that the Fed will cut interest rates more aggressively in the future, which has weakened gold prices. But it does not mean a basic trend because the basic trend will still be bullish, because the path to cutting interest rates by the Fed is still very long and data will continue to be the next catalyst.
The reason to say that the path to cutting interest rates is still very long is that readers can pay attention to the details that "in the shortest term", Fed officials expect interest rates to drop to 4.4% by the end of 2024. and down to 3.4% by 2025.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold corrected significantly on yesterday's trading day after renewing its all-time high in the $2,600 area, this was also the target increase that readers noticed in the weekly publication.
Technically, the adjustment from the original price level is not an unusual sign of the trend. The current trend of gold price is still bullish with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 as the main support.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, the technical outlook remains bullish. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up, showing that momentum and room for price growth are still ahead.
Once gold breaks above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension it will be in position to retest the all-time high once again and gold sustaining price activity above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension is a positive signal for the trend. short-term upward trend.
During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price points.
Support: 2,561 – 2,546 – 2,540USD
Resistance: 2,582USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2586 - 2584⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2590
→Take Profit 1 2579
↨
→Take Profit 2 2574
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2524 - 2526⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2520
→Take Profit 1 2531
↨
→Take Profit 2 2536
gold idea hidden orders sitting a bit higher $$$ #BookMap "Your income is directly related to your philosophy, not the economy." — Jim Rohn
This emphasizes the importance of mindset and attitude in achieving financial success.
We have orders sitting at the the top, you probably could see them if you were using book map
so I would buy and set a trailing stop loss as price rises up
VWAP will help us enter and exit so no need to list entry and exit
THanks and out
- Trade God
2024-09-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Bull trap above the bull wedge as I wrote. Bears confirmed it with the close today. I look for shorts tomorrow and expect 2560 or lower to be hit tomorrow. Anything below 2540 would be a huge surprise and we could see an acceleration down to 2500. If bulls reverse this and trade back above 2610, bears will most likely give up until we hit 2700.
comment: Another spike and new ath but huge rejection. I do think the rejection was strong enough to expect follow through and test the lower bull wedge trend line around 2550/2560.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 2550 - 2630
bull case: Bulls tried to break above the bull wedge and failed. Odds now favor a retest of the lower trend line (daily ema is also there), where I expect buyers to step in more strongly again. If bears somehow fumble this again, bulls would need a reversal of the huge 1h bar and get back above 2600. The longer bulls can stay around 2600, the better.
Invalidation is below 2540.
bear case: Bears want to keep the momentum strong tomorrow (after the 50+ point rejection from the new ath) and test down to 2550. If they somehow manage to break below 2540, we could see an acceleration down to 2500/2520 but I highly doubt that. Since we had a spike up and then a huge spike down, the dominant pattern is still the bull wedge and there is not much more magic to it than what I described. Bears absolutely need to keep it below 2600 to have a chance of lower prices.
Invalidation is above 2605.
short term: Neutral until bears get follow through below 2570 or 2600 is clear resistance now.
medium-long term: 7 consecutive months where Gold barely went below previous month’s low. Strong buying on the monthly chart but also the third push up we are currently in. I highly doubt bulls get another one so if it continues, it’s without me. I am waiting for a bigger correction.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: How could you predict those spikes today? You can’t. How can you trade them? Only viable could have been shorting the spike above 2620 but those are hard to take. You would need a wide stop and scale in. One time you short it correctly and make the trade of the week and next time you blow your account if you are not humble enough. Today was no obvious good trade to be honest.
2024-09-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment : Look at the daily chart and then you can’t be anything but neutral after yesterday and today. Consecutive doji bars with huge tails above and minor tails below. I don’t care about the new ath on the cash index since I trade the chart in front of me and that’s where the ath was in July and due to contract switch it’s now at 5782 while today hit 5756. The high was high enough to qualify as a tripple top now and we can sell off or make a new one above 5800. The dominant feature is the bull wedge and we are kinda closer to the middle than to the top or bottom. I can see this going either way to be honest. Ask yourself this, has the market a reason to sell off right now after the big rate cut? Answer was no before and definitely no after the cut. Does not mean it can not happen anyway.
current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge)
key levels: 5660 - 5800
bull case: Bulls made another higher high and a higher low. Does not look that good for bulls to buy the close 5680 but it sure as hell does not look bearish. As long as support and resistance are holding, I lean bullish and scalp long. Market is still trading above the 4h 20ema and obviously the daily, so bulls remain in control. Obvious targets above are 5782 and then 5800.
Invalidation is below 5665.
bear case: Bears need a lower low below 5665 and that’s they only target for now. Until they can achieve that, they have no good arguments on their side. I do think market will spend some more time in this area before we see another breakout. If bears would get below 5665, their next target is the daily 20ema at 5640 and below that is the bull trend line around 5570.
Invalidation is above 5810.
short term: Neutral between 5665 - 5782. Big range but that’s today’s range where we wildly went up and down multiple times.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying 5690 and selling 5720 but you needed wide stops to trade this.
NQ idea $$$ no need for MapBook "Perseverance is not a long race; it is many short races one after the other." — Walter Elliot
I predict will be heading back to the support level where market makers left sellers looking very sad.
(19415 area)
If you were looking at Bookmap which I am not 9 times out of 10 it would show there are orders waiting in at area.
They have to drop price and come back and get that liquidity they left down in the 19415 area. (W) formed
Thanks and hopefully this information benefits you .... like share and follow chat !!!!
#TradeGod
Triple Your Trade Accuracy with This Simple Trick Like a PROGood Morning Tradingview,
Apologies for the delay in my recent posts over the past two days. Unfortunately, this was due to an oversight on my part. I missed a key detail in the trading platform's rules and mistakenly included my watermark on the charts. As a result, several of my posts were removed, and I was temporarily unable to post for 24 hours. I completely understand and respect the platform's guidelines, but I wanted to keep you informed and ensure you're not left wondering about my absence.
Here’s a breakdown of potential entry points and trade management based on the chart I've shared, aligned with multi-touch confirmation and The Trinity Rule. We'll focus on how to approach both the bullish and bearish scenarios with structured decision-making:
1. Bullish Scenario (Green Path):
The price currently appears to be testing a weekly trendline (third touch), which often signals a potential bullish continuation after the third touch confirms a reversal or trend continuation.
Here's how to structure the trade:
Entry Point:
Wait for a Breakout: If the price breaks and closes above the upper consolidation zone, look for a confirmed breakout with momentum. Avoid entering prematurely, as false breakouts can occur.
Confirm with Retest (Higher Probability Entry): After the breakout, wait for a potential retest of the consolidation zone or the top of the ascending wedge. A retest that holds (with rejection wicks or bullish engulfing patterns) adds confirmation for a long position.
Reduced Risk Entry: You can enter with a smaller position on the breakout and add to the position on the retest, increasing exposure as the price confirms your bias.
Stop-Loss Placement:
Place the stop-loss just below the consolidation zone or below the retested area. This level serves as your risk threshold, accounting for potential fakeouts.
If you are entering after the third touch of the trendline, the stop-loss can be placed below this key level to minimize risk.
Take-Profit Targets:
First Target: Aim for the next key resistance zone at around 2,576 based on historical price action.
Second Target: If momentum is strong, hold a portion of the trade for a larger move toward 2,592 (upper resistance). Trail the stop as price continues to move upward.
2. Bearish Scenario (Yellow Path):
If the price fails to break above the current consolidation and rejects the trendline, it indicates a potential bearish reversal. The descending path might target the 1-hour liquidity zone around 2,541, where you can expect the price to react.
Entry Point:
Breakout of Consolidation: If the price breaks below the consolidation, this signals a bearish continuation. Enter on a confirmed breakout, with a strong bearish candle close below support.
Aggressive Entry: You may consider entering on the third rejection at the top of the consolidation, especially if there's a clear bearish reversal pattern (e.g., shooting star or bearish engulfing).
Reduced Risk Entry: Wait for the price to break below the consolidation and enter on a retest of the broken support, confirming the bearish momentum. This provides a lower-risk entry with better confirmation.
Stop-Loss Placement:
Above the consolidation or the most recent swing high where rejection occurred, giving enough room for market fluctuations. Ensure that the stop isn’t too tight, as you could get caught in price noise.
Take-Profit Targets:
First Target: The 15-minute liquidity zone around 2,560 is a reasonable first target, where you may partially close your position.
Final Target: The key 1-hour liquidity zone at 2,541 is the more substantial target for a full bearish continuation. Be mindful of how price reacts near this zone; you may want to take profits before a reversal happens.
Management Tips:
Scaling In and Out: Whether bullish or bearish, consider splitting your position into smaller entries. This allows you to enter part of the trade with confirmation and add more as price action continues in your favor.
Use of Flags for Re-entries: After the initial breakout in either direction, look for flags or continuation patterns to re-enter the trade or add to an existing position. For example, after a bullish breakout, wait for a flag and enter on the next wave up.
Regular Monitoring and Adjustments: As the price moves in your favor, trail your stop-loss to lock in profits. This is especially important during strong momentum moves to avoid giving back profits to the market.
Psychological Considerations:
Avoid FOMO: Don’t rush into trades if you're unsure about the breakout or failure of a level. Let the price action confirm your bias.
Avoid Overtrading: Stick to your Rule of Three guidelines. Ensure at least three confirming factors align with your analysis before entering.
GOLD recovers from support at $2,561, Fed decisionOANDA:XAUUSD decreased and recovered after the US announced retail sales figures for August. This is the last important US macroeconomic data released before the Fed's decision today (Wednesday).
Gold price touched 2,560 USD in yesterday's trading session. As of the time of writing, spot gold is at 2,573 USD/ounce.
Data from the US Census Bureau showed US retail sales increased 0.1% month-on-month in August, compared with a revised 1.1% increase in July. higher than expectations of a 0.2% decline.
Meanwhile, US retail sales (excluding autos) increased 0.1% after increasing 0.4% in July. This figure was lower than expectations for 0.2% growth.
The data slightly reduces the likelihood of a 50 basis point Federal Reserve cut at its September meeting, which would have an impact on gold's near-term gains.
Fed decision upcoming
Today (Wednesday), the market will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Fed Chairman Powell's press conference, which is expected to create a major volatility in the gold market.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut was 67% before the data was released, but after the data was released, the probability fell to 65%.
This would be the Fed's first rate cut since 2020, and financial markets have priced in the possibility of the Fed acting aggressively, as indicated by rates on CME's FedWatch tool.
Since gold does not yield interest, a low interest rate environment can reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold, which is more beneficial for gold.
Gold buying power will decrease if the Fed only cuts 25bps this time, however, gold will be supported and rise even higher once the Fed cuts 50bps.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold corrected yesterday, it received support at the 0.50% Fibonacci extension. Note to readers in the previous issue.
The current price point of 2,561USD is the nearest support level, while the price point of 2,582USD is the nearest resistance and is also the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci level.
For gold to have enough conditions to increase in price technically, it needs to break the level of 2,582 USD and maintain price activity above this level, then the target is still the original price point of 2,600 USD in the short term rather than the level of 2,612 USD. Fibonacci price point 0.786%.
During the day, the uptrend of gold prices is still dominating with the main trend from the price channel, and notable levels will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,561USD
Resistance: 2,582USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2606 - 2604⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2610
→Take Profit 1 2599
↨
→Take Profit 2 2594
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2544 - 2546⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2540
→Take Profit 1 2551
↨
→Take Profit 2 2556
2024-09-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Strong second leg up (daily tf) and bulls even tried to break above the bear flag but for now I doubt the breakout will be succesful. We are right in the middle of the broad bear channel and odds are 50/50 for either side. Above 72 odds rise for the bulls and below 69.5 I favor the bears again.
comment: In my weekly outlook I wrote that if 65 holds, bulls are favored for 73 or 74. High today was 71.92. I doubt bulls are strong enough to break above the bull channel and make the pullback even steeper. 50% pullback from the selloff since 77 is around 71.5, so we are right in the middle of the broad bear channel. Odds favor the bears to test the lower bull channel around 70.5 again. If bulls fail there and bears can break below, we will likely see a retest of 67 or 66.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 66 - 74
bull case: Bulls got decent follow through and they want an endless pullback for the bears and keep going until they hit the upper bear trend line around 74.5. They are trading above the 4h 20ema and every touch of it is bought. As long as they keep it above 70, higher prices are expected.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears see this bear flag with 3 pushes up as done and the 50% pb is high enough to try for a continuation of the bear trend. Don’t be among the first to join them. Confirmation would be a 15m bar close below 70 and a break below the bull channel.
Invalidation is above 72.
short term: Neutral around the 50% pb 71.5. Bearish below 70 and bullish above 72.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Buying the 4h 20ema is profitable again.
2024-09-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Many new highs but also a deep pullback and we closed around the middle of the daily range. Are we smarter than yesterday? We know that bulls remain in control since we are trading above most higher tf ema but bears also sold off for 1% today on the sp500. I keep my neutral stance and wait for the FOMC debacle to be over with. No one knows where markets will go on either 25 or 50bps. Be more like Elsa, let it go. You don’t have to gamble away hard earned profits on max confused and undecided markets.
dax futures
comment: Bulls got above my given target 18750 in my weekly update but got rejected for almost 200 points. Market is still neutral imo and I don’t expect this to change until some hours after FOMC. Since the market is so confusing and no one knows where rates might go, we can expect traps before and after FOMC. I refuse to trade much tomorrow.
current market cycle: big bull wedge on the daily tf and bull channel on the 1h tf
key levels: 18600 - 18900
bull case: Bulls printed 18800 and this could have been it before FOMC. We are 270 points below the ath (xetra) and we could easily get there. That’s also the only target left for the bulls. As long as the bull channel holds, they are in control and favored for higher prices.
Invalidation is below 18600.
bear case: Bears reversed much of today’s gains and did so in a fast manner. Bulls still bought it again, like the previous week. Bears need to start making lower lows again or bulls continue to btfd. Bears first target is to get below 18600 which would also break the bull channel. If you look at the daily chart we have many tails above and below bars. Bulls are grinding higher but it can reverse quickly imo. 1h ema is pretty flat, so don’t get trapped selling low or buying high.
Invalidation is above 18820.
short term: Neutral. Only scalping small positions until we know how market thinks FOMC is to be interpreted.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Globex lows held and the long after the double bottom around 18680 was good. Also selling the second try by the bears when bulls failed at 18800 (double top) but it’s hard to be this flexible on bigger swings. If you took one of those, you probably had an amazing day.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Detailed Support and Resistance Analysis
Here is my latest structure analysis and important key levels
to pay close attention to on WTI Crude Oil.
Vertical Structures
Vertical Resistance 1: Falling Trend Line
Horizontal Structures
Resistance 1: 71.46 - 71.90 area
Resistance 2: 73.80 - 74.30 area
Resistance 3: 76.00 - 77.60 area
Resistance 4: 79.60 - 80.16 area
Support 1: 63.80 - 65.70 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Important data, GOLD traded quite narrowly ahead of FOMCOANDA:XAUUSD there are many fluctuations but still maintain the main uptrend, on this trading day the market will receive US retail sales data, this data will have a certain influence on the decision of the Federal Reserve (FED) this week.
Today (Tuesday), the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for August.
Economists expect US retail sales to fall 0.2% monthly in August, after rising 1% in July.
US retail sales data typically has a greater impact on financial markets, potentially influencing the trend of assets such as the US dollar and gold.
August data is expected to be lower than July's positive data and is expected to guide the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts, favoring a 50 basis point cut instead of a 25 basis point cut. copy. Of course, this is negative for the US Dollar and positive for gold.
While retail sales data will be the primary focus today, the focus this week is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due to be announced on Wednesday.
According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has jumped to 67.0%. Less than a week ago, the market believed the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while only 25% believed the Fed would cut interest rates by 50 basis points. This is a signal that the possibility of a 50bps cut on Wednesday is becoming more solid.
Since gold does not yield interest, a low interest rate environment can reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold, which is more beneficial for gold.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Temporarily, gold is still trading in a fairly narrow range but the main uptrend has not changed technically with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 moving average as the main support.
Gold's short-term uptrend is limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci extension, which readers noticed in the weekly publication on Sunday. For gold to have enough conditions to increase in price further, it needs to bring price activity above 2,582 USD, and this is also the current closest resistance level.
Even if gold has not been able to break the $2,582 level to reach the next short-term target level at the original price point of $2,600 and beyond the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it still has a bullish bias.
However, corrections can still occur because the technical principle is that the market will not be able to move in a straight line, and the immediate correction in the short term will be limited by the Fibonacci 0.50% price point of 2,561. USD, this is considered the closest support level currently.
During the day, gold's uptrend may encounter short-term corrections with notable price levels listed below.
Support: 2,575 – 2,561USD
Resistance: 2,600 – 2,612USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2606 - 2604⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2610
→Take Profit 1 2599
↨
→Take Profit 2 2594
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2544 - 2546⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2540
→Take Profit 1 2551
↨
→Take Profit 2 2556
2024-09-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Since today was a very slow day, my weekly update is more interesting than today’s daily update (in case you haven’t read it).
Indexes - Disappointment for the bulls was my assumption for today and that we got. Boring sideways movement in tight trading ranges. DJI was the only market with strength, printing a new ath but closing below 41700, so probably mostly a liquidity grap. Wednesday we have FOMC and I don’t expect markets to move far away from their current ranges.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Small green doji on the daily chart. Not much to comment about. Market closed 11 points above the open price and mean reversion was profitable today. I expect the triangle on the daily to hold until FOMC.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 5400 -5670
bull case: Please see my weekly update.
Invalidation is below 5540.
bear case: Bears got 1 decent bear bar on the 1h chart and bulls bought it. Until bears can print 3-4 consecutive bear bars on the 1h tf, they have nothing going for them. Best they can hope for is to stay below 5670
Invalidation is above 5670.
short term: Neutral between 5600-5670 and I don’t expect a break of this range until FOMC.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying bar 39 low was perfect but any bar from 39-46 was ok. Market clearly did not want to go lower then open price is always an obvious magnet on ranging days.
WTI recovered insignificantly, bearish factors prevailedWest Texas Intermediate TVC:USOIL opened down to 68.94 USD/barrel as of the time this article was completed.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last Thursday that global crude oil demand is cooling while output outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies ( OPEC+) continues to increase.
According to IEA data, the organization predicts non-OPEC+ crude oil production will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2025.
The fact that supply is continuously expanding while market demand is not enough to compensate is the most noticeable pressure on the oil market at the present time.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell about 15% this quarter on concerns about falling demand. The International Energy Agency said that global consumption growth in the first half of the year reached its lowest level since the epidemic. In that context, OPEC+, an organization of oil producing countries, postponed plans to relax supply restrictions, and Libya's oil output continued to decline.
About supporting factors
With the recent conflict in Libya and a series of geopolitical crises in recent years, the market is not without upside potential, although these factors have not yet had a profound enough impact on the market. common school.
Combined with the fact that the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates at its meeting next week after the labor market showed signs of slowing and traders are more optimistic that policymakers policy will cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Lower borrowing costs could support economic growth and increased energy demand.
These may provide negligible fundamental support in the near term. However, the oil market needs to pay more attention to Supply - Demand and OPEC+ factors.
Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL
On the daily chart, WTI crude oil recovered but remained in a long-term downtrend noted by the price channel and pressure from EMA21.
Crude oil's fall below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart would open the door for a new bearish cycle with the target then at $67.25 in the short term, more so than $65.2.
On the other hand, as long as WTI crude oil remains within the price channel, the downtrend remains dominant, but maintaining price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci level will be the factor that pushes it to recover a little further with resistance near highest at 70.9USD.
Looking at the overall picture, the trend of WTI crude oil is to decrease in price with technical levels that will be noticed again as follows.
Support: 68.74 – 67.25USD
Resistance: 70.28 – 70.90USD
GOLD continuously sets new peaks, conditions for 2,600 USDEnd of last trading week, OANDA:XAUUSD Spots hit a new all-time record high, building on the strength and momentum received from Thursday, as the market bullishly priced in the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. .
Gold prices have surged this year, driven by the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, central bank buying and strong safe-haven demand from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. pushed up gold prices.
Safe-haven demand has pushed gold up more than 24%, driven by geopolitical crises and economic uncertainty, as well as strong central bank buying. Last week, the World Gold Council said global physical gold exchange-traded funds saw capital inflows for the fourth consecutive month in August.
As the Federal Reserve's next meeting on September 18 approaches, markets are paying close attention to the possibility of the US cutting interest rates for the first time since 2020. Low interest rates tend to support gold and creating pressure on the USD.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows investors now see a 50% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut next week in US interest rates.
Looking ahead, the gold market this week will focus on important events such as the Fed's interest rate decision and the revised Dotplot chart, comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the post-FOMC press conference, expected will create big fluctuations in the market.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold achieved the target increase sent to readers in the issue at the 0.618% trend-following Fibonacci extension and the upward momentum slowed, narrowing below this level.
Looking at it comprehensively, gold is still completely capable of continuing to increase in price as the Relative Strength Index points up with a large slope but has not gone above the overbought level, showing that there is still room for upward momentum. still ahead.
In the short term, as long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, its trend remains bullish and pullbacks that do not break these supports should only be considered technical corrections without change trend.
In the immediate future, if the gold price is pushed above the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will have enough conditions to continue to increase to the original price of 2,600 USD and more than the 0.786% Fibonacci price point of 2,612 USD.
The uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,561 – 2,567USD
Resistance: 2,590 – 2,613USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2601 - 2599⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
→Take Profit 1 2594
↨
→Take Profit 2 2589
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2553 - 2555⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2549
→Take Profit 1 2560
↨
→Take Profit 2 2565
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Neutral. Big triangle on the daily chart and we are 40 points below the previous big resistance. Resistance is just that until clearly broken. Sideways movement between 5400 - 5670 is more likely than a new ath above 5721. If bulls break above 5670, a new ath becomes more likely and bellow 5550 I think the bears are favored again, at least for 5400.
Quote from last week:
comment: Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts.
comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 5400 - 5700
bull case: Traps on both sides and 5630 is a very good place to trap bulls again, like they did 2 weeks ago. Not much more to say other what I wrote in my comment. Bulls are slightly favored here until bears come around again but buying above 5600 right now is a bad trade, no matter how you put it. If bulls get follow through on Monday, I join them but no earlier.
Invalidation is below 5500.
bear case: Bears need to keep this a lower high or probably face a new ath test. Since bulls printed a 5 bar micro channel last week, bears have no good arguments until they print a bear bar on the daily chart. Market is undecided and erratic, don’t overstay your welcome to either side. If we see 5700+ next week, I will think deeply about when and where to short. Last time we hit 5700, market spent 5 days around that price before turning down hard for 10%.
Invalidation is above 5670.
outlook last week:
short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5419 and now we are at 5629. I warned against being bearish at the lows and wait for a pullback. Pullback was way stronger than expected so meh outlook.
short term : Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed the ABC correction and added the bull wedge.