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2024-06-17 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nqGood Evening and I hope you are well. Nasdaq. 20000. What else can you say. The AI bubble will be in the history books and Michael Lewis will write a book about the insanity that’s going on. I sincerely hope they bring the exact cast back from the big short. You can quote me on this one. Over the next months, you will read about companies cutting back on spending, especially on AI since it’s expensive af and not bringing in any money. Nvidia will probably be halved somewhere in 2025/2026 so stock should hit around 65ish. Monthly ema is at 60. I looked that up after I wrote the halving part. comment: Let’s review this weekly painting, now that we finally reached 20000. All bullish targets are met, the upper bull channel is broken and I expect this to be a bull trap rather than a breakout above with follow through. If nq trades above 20100, I am obviously wrong. Last two times we reached new highs we sold off for a couple of weeks and this is what I expect this time as well. Market will most likely pull back from here and then retest the ath again before we trade back to the smaller bull channel around 18500 or lower. current market cycle: 20000. Get a tattoo of that. key levels: 18000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls outdid themselves on this one. One for the history books. Can they get higher? Sure but I doubt it. Have nothing for them in this section. Move on. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Let’s see if they appear tomorrow. We should see a decent pullback to at least 19500 over the next days, follow by a retest of the ath, which should fail. A bigger two-legged correction should get us down to 18500 over the next days/weeks. On the bigger time frame all my bullish targets are met and all wave series ended between 19000 and 20000. Got nothing for the bulls here. Invalidation is above 20100. short term: Who buy’s this above 20000? Let’s see tomorrow. If they actually do, no idea where it can go. I expect a pullback to 19500 and the daily 20ema. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. current swing trade: Short 20000 until bulls manage to break 20100 or big profits. I will take profits and add to this position along the way. Chart update: This is my best guess on how the next 3-9 months will play out. Gave all the reasons above.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds
3
GOLD recovers, but technical conditions lean bearish OANDA:XAUUSD recovering to above the price of 2,300 USD as of the time this article was being completed. The previous trading day, gold prices reached their largest decline in 3 and a half years due to data released by China and the United States. Gold prices fell about $83, or 3.5%, last Friday, the biggest one-day drop since November 2020, after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report dampened hopes for a interest rate cut in September, while news that China's central bank is delaying gold purchases caused the market to reduce bets on demand from China, one of the world's biggest gold buyers. . Market focus has shifted to the US consumer inflation report, released on Wednesday, the same day as the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The Fed is not expected to make any changes this week, focusing on comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and changes to policymakers' economic forecasts. On the daily chart, gold is trying to recover above the $2,300 base price and a daily close above this base price would be a positive signal. To confirm, gold should maintain price activity above $2,305, a technical level noted by readers in Sunday's weekly edition. On the other hand, if gold moves below the original price level of 2,300 USD again, it will continue to be under technical pressure with the target level possibly aiming at the price point of 2,272 USD, the location of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. Holding above $2,305 would strengthen the case for a recovery with a target then around $2,324, a position that was also brought to the attention of readers in the weekly publication. During the day, the technical trend is still leaning more towards bearish possibilities, positions will be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,300 – 2,286 – 2,272USD Resistance: 2,314 – 2,324USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2341 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2345 ⬆️TP1: 2334 ⬆️TP2: 2329 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2267 - 2269 ⚰️SL: 2263 ⬆️TP1: 2274 ⬆️TP2: 2279
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Four Factors Driving Gold Prices Relative to Silver2600 years ago, the Anatolian Kingdom of Lydia minted the world’s first gold and silver coins. In doing so, the Lydian King Alyattes and his successor Croesus introduced the world’s first exchange rate: the gold-silver cross. Like any cross rate, the amount of silver that can be purchased with an ounce of gold is driven by both demand and supply-side factors, and the cross rate is anything other than stable. Sadly, we don’t have the time series of the gold-silver ratio dating back to ancient times, but we do have data going back to the launch of gold futures on December 31, 1974. Since the mid-1970s, one ounce of gold bought anywhere from 17 ounces to as many as 123 ounces of silver (Figure 1). Figure 1: The amount of silver an ounce of gold can buy has been highly variable In addition to the impact of monetary policy, which we have covered here, the gold-silver ratio appears to be governed by four other factors: Relative volatility and the silver beta Fabrication demand and technological change Gold’s use as a monetary asset Supply-side dynamics Relative volatility and beta To borrow an expression from the equity markets, silver is the high-beta version of gold. First, silver and gold prices usually have a strong positive correlation. Since 2004 the one-year rolling correlation of their daily price moves has hovered around +0.8 (Figure 2). Second, silver is more volatile than gold. As such, when gold prices move up, silver tends to move up more, thereby lowering the gold-silver price ratio. By contrast, during bear markets, the gold-silver ratio tends to rise. Figure 2: The correlation of gold and silver price changes has hugged +0.8 since 2004. For example, when gold and silver prices peaked in September 2011, one ounce of gold bought fewer than 32 ounces of silver (Figure 3). In the ensuing bear market, the ratio rose to as high as 124 ounces of silver per ounce of gold. The ratio snapped back to 64 in 2020 as gold and silver rallied early in the pandemic. In 2024, as both metals have rallied, silver has outperformed, rising 23% in the first five months of the year compared to 12% for the yellow metal. Figure 3: Positive correlation plus much higher volatility give silver a high beta to gold Fabrication Demand and the Impact of Technological Change What is curious is that while gold and silver have rallied thus far in 2024, gold broke to new record highs of nearly $2,500 per ounce whereas silver prices remain 40% below their twin 1980 and 2011 peaks despite having outperformed gold since 2020 (Figure 4). The reason may lie in technological advances. Figure 4: Gold has hit records in 2024 while silver is still 40% below its 1980 and 2011 record highs Even before the Lydians minted the first gold and silver coins around 600 BCE, both metals had been used to make jewellery: silver since around 2500 BCE and gold since 4500 BCE. Some things don’t change. Even today, the primary use of both metals is to make jewellery. Yet, thus far this century, silver has been buffeted by two sets of technological developments: the digital revolution and the energy transition. Both have impacted the relative gold-silver ratio. In 1999, photography used 267.7 million troy ounces of silver which accounted for 36.6% of that year’s total silver supply. By 2023 photography used only 23.2 million ounces of silver or about 2.3% of 2023’s total supply due to the rise of digital photography. Meanwhile, silver’s use in electronics and batteries grew from 90 million ounces to 227.4 million ounces or from 12.3% to 22.7% of silver’s total annual supply, partially offsetting the decline in traditional photography, which may partially explain why silver has struggled to hit new highs in recent years even as gold has set records. The good news for silver, however, is that it is finding new use in the energy transition. Over the past few years silver has seen strong growth coming from solar panels, which accounted for 20% of 2023 silver demand, up from essentially nothing in 1999 (Figure 5). Solar panels may explain in part why silver has recovered relative to gold since 2020. Figure 5: Battery and solar panel demand have grown as photography demand has shrunk If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By contrast, gold fabrication demand has shown itself to be immune from recent technological developments and is still overwhelmingly dominated by jewellery demand, with electronics, dental and other uses absorbing just 17% of annual gold mining supply (Figure 6). The differences in silver and gold fabrication demand underscores that gold is considered the purer of the two precious metals. Figure 6: Gold fabrication demand has remained little changed Gold and global monetary policy Indeed, central banks around the world treat gold as money while they largely ignore silver (Figure 7). They hold a combined 36,700 metric tons of gold, the equivalent of 1.2 billion troy ounces or 13 years of global mining output. Moreover, central banks have been net buyers of gold every year since the global financial crisis. Figure 7: Central banks have been net buyers of gold since the global financial crisis Central bank buying of gold since 2009 contrasts sharply with their tendency to be net sellers from 1982 to 2007. Central banks’ accumulation of gold suggests that they want a hard asset to complement their foreign exchange reserves of dollars, euros, yen and other fiat currencies, a view that appears to have been reinforced by on-and-off quantitative easing since 2009 and increased use of financial sanctions. Central bank buying impacts gold prices directly, but only boosts silver prices indirectly via the gold market. The supply side of the equation Central bank gold buying reduces the amount of gold available to the public. Over the past decade, central bank buying has removed the equivalent of 8%-20% of new mining supply from the gold market each year (Figure 8) which may also explain why the gold-silver ratio rose significantly from 2011 to 2020 and why, even today, it remains at 2x its 2011 level. Figure 8: Net of central bank buying, gold supply has stagnated since 2003 Total gold supply net of official purchases has stagnated since 2003. Meanwhile, silver mining supply peaked in 2016 and gold mining supply peaked the next year (Figure 9). The fact that new supply is arriving on the market more slowly than in the past may be bullish for both gold and silver. Figure 9: Gold and silver respond negative to changes in each other’s mining supply. Our econometric analysis shows that gold and silver prices are negatively correlated with changes to one another’s mining supply. A 1% decrease in gold mining supply, on balance, boosted gold prices by 1.9% and silver by 3.0% from 1974 to 2023. A 1% decease in silver mining supply boosted the prices of the metals by 1.3%-1.6% (Figure 10). Secondary supply appears to respond to price rather than drive it. Higher prices incentivize more recycling, but recycled metal doesn’t appear to depress prices as it doesn’t bring any new metal onto the market. Figure 10: Secondary supply responds to price rather than drives it What connects the two markets is jewellery. Because gold is 70x as costlier than silver, when prices rise, demand for gold jewellery falls while silver’s jewellery demand is relatively unresponsive to price because it costs much less. Gold and silver can be seen as a sort of binary star system where the two stars orbit a common center of gravity or barycenter. Gold is the larger, more stable and more influential of the two, but it is by no means immune from silver’s pull. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CME_Group
4
AUDUSD continues to benefit from the return to risk assetsAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR ( OANDA:AUDUSD ) ANALYSIS - Australian inflation eases less than anticipated in March and Q1 as a whole - AUDUSD continues to benefit from the return to risk assets AUSTRALIAN INFLATION EASES LESS THAN ANTICIPATED IN Q1 Monthly, quarterly and yearly inflation measures showed disappointing progress towards the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target. The monthly CPI indicator for May rose to 3.5% versus the prior 3.4% to round off a disappointing quarter where the first three months of the year revealed a rise of 1%, trumping the 0.8% estimate and prior marker of 0.6%. Generally higher service cost pressures in the first quarter have made a notable contribution to the stubborn inflation data – something the RBA will most likely continue to warn against. The local interest rate is expected to remain higher for longer in part due to the sluggish inflation data but also due to the labour market remaining tight. A strong labour market facilitates spending and consumption, preventing prices from declining at a desired pace. Markets now foresee no movement on the rate front this year with implied basis point moves all in positive territory for the remainder of the year. This is of course likely to evolve as data comes in but for now, the chances of a rate cut this year appear unlikely. OANDA:AUDUSD CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM THE RETURN TO RISK ASSETS After escalation threats between Israel and Iran appeared to die down, markets returned to assets like the S&P 500 and the ‘high beta’ Aussie dollar. AUD/USD subsequently reversed after tagging the 0.6365 level – the September 2022 spike low and surpassed 0.6460 with ease. Upside momentum appears to have found intra-day resistance at a noteworthy area of confluence resistance – the intersection of the 50 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The move could also be inspired by reports of Israel preparing to move on Hamas targets in Rafah, which could risks deflating the recent lift in risk sentiment. US GDP data tomorrow and PCE data on Friday still provide an opportunity for increased volatility and a potential USD comeback should both prints surprise to the upside, further reinforcing the higher for longer narrative that has reemerged. All things considered, AUD may be susceptible to a sifter end to the week.
by Xayah_trading
AUDUSD has mainly oscillated between 0.6680 and 0.6580The Aussie dollar lost ground in the week gone by. AUD/USD has mainly oscillated between 0.6680 and 0.6580 with prices testing the lower bound this week before lifting off it. Australian GDP is due next week as well, with estimates for Q1 suggesting a stagnant start to the year with 0% quarter-on-quarter growth. AUD/USD could continue to drift lower next week due to recent upward momentum in the US dollar and a complicated growth outlook for Australia.
by Xayah_trading
GBPCHF tries to find resistance after recoveryPOUND STERLING OANDA:GBPCHF ANALYSIS - Enough US data to go around this week: ADP, services PMI and NFP - GBP/CHF attempts to find resistance as the pair recovers from overbought territory THERE’S ENOUGH US DATA TO GO AROUND THIS WEEK There is a lack of UK data this week, but it shouldn't be ignored for sterling-related pairs. FX movements increased in Q1 and central banks are now considering interest rate cuts. The question is when will they have the confidence to start. In contrast, US data has been plentiful. ADP data added to the strength seen in the job market. US services PMI data contributed to the dollar's short-term pullback after declines in "new orders" and "prices" in March, resulting in a moderate headline reading of 51.4. There is significant Fed speak today, with Jerome Powell standing out. OANDA:GBPCHF ATTEMPTS TO FIND RESISTANCE AS THE PAIR RECOVERS FROM OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY Now that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets with a 25 basis point cut in March, the Swiss Franc appears vulnerable. However, since the SNB meeting, GBP/CHF has failed to trade above the March 21st high, witnessing long upper wicks which ultimately fell short of the mark. The pair also attempts to recover from overbought territory and so there may be room for a shorter-term pullback should bears pile in from here. The gold overlay is the yield differential for the pair (GB 10 year bond yield -Swiss 10 year yield) and has helped, to some degree, explain the path of the pair. Support sits at the recent swing low around 1.1345 with resistance at 1.1487.
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY [June 10 - June 14]On the daily chart, gold has lost almost all of its technical points to a bullish structure, instead with a weekly close below the $2,300 base point opening up expectations for more downside with a target level. Short-term target is aimed at the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down but has not yet reached the oversold level, this shows that there is still room for price declines and the Fibonacci level of 0.382% may be suitable for a short-term upward correction when which RSI reached the oversold level. In the near future, if gold recovers to above 2,300 USD, it will have the necessary conditions to recover more with the target levels when moving above 2,300 USD being 2,324 - 2,345 USD. Thus, the original price of 2,300 USD is also the closest resistance currently. 📌The trading plan for next week will first consider selling if the price returns to around 2342, buying around the support mark of 2195.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Day and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and monthly bar more buying than selling signals. You could argue that we are building a similar structure to April, where we had the double top and then only lower highs until bears finally accelerated it down big time and we got below 5000. Could this happen here too? Of course. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday. comment: My take last week was, that as long as bears keep it below 5400, we could be in a trading range. Bulls used the pullback on Tuesday for a new ath and got a strong follow through on Wednesday to pulverize that previous ath and trade above 5500. That target price was my first measured move target from early 2024 and it could continue up to 5600. Market refused to print a bear bar on Thursday and Friday which leaves the market maximum bullish going into next week. The big issue with that long trade is, you are buying right under the ath in a buy climax, in multiple wedges, far far above any ema. This trade risk:reward equation is as bad as it gets but the probability is high. But what is your target? You can join momentum but all of my calculated targets end at around 5600. Buying pullbacks is the reasonable thing to do until it stops working. My final thoughts on the market this week is the following chart, which speaks for itself. This is peak bubble behavior and the next 1000-2000 Points will be made on the downside. So given the current pattern of the s&p500 I do think we are in the last blow-off top of this bull cycle and will enter a trading range which will evolve into the new bear trend once we break below 5000. This market is made up of 7 stocks which get all the liquidity. My best guess on the path forward over the next months is in the weekly chart below. We will probably spend more time between 5000 - 5600 to form a credible top. A head & shoulders top would be the most probable outcome. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory again. Will end over the next weeks. key levels: 5400 - 5600 bull case: Bulls buying it all on the 7 stocks. Volume on this up move since May is absolute atrocious but that does not help anyone so far. It’s only going up and as long as bulls keep making money literally buying every dip, we continue up. I have 3 wave series leading up to 5500-5600 and all end there. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: What do the bears have going for them? Nothing and if anything, pure speculation and low probability stuff. The chart is showing multiple wedges, we are clearly in multiple third pushes up (W5) and volume is drying up. Once the institutions begin taking profits on the magnificent 7, we will see big moves down to end the trend and enter a trading range. The bull trend line around 5300 will be hit in the next 2-4 weeks and afterwards I think we will form a lower high before we will be on our way to 5000 again. As of now I think bears want to see a big climactic bull bar to 5600 before they begin shorting again. Invalidation is above 5620. outlook last week: “Bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500 or higher but only if it happens until end of Tuesday.” → Last Sunday we traded 5355 and now we are at 5502. 5500 was my target if bulls trade above 5400 and I hope you made some of those 100 points. Good outlook it was. short term: No interest in buying here unless it’s a momentum scalp. I will look for weakness and a trade back to a test of the daily 20ema which is around 5400. Bulls are still heavily favored in terms of probability. medium-long term: Bull trend is in the last legs and this will soon pull back much further and form a big trading range. 5600 could be hit but the next bigger points are made trading back down to 5300 and 5000 over the next weeks/months. current swing trade: None Chart update: This is my best guess on how the next 3-9 months will play out. Two-legged correction down to 5000 over the next 4-8 weeks, followed by a last lower high before the next big bear trend will begin. That’s only price-wise but not time wise. Could get there much faster or much slower.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#LTCUSDT #1h (OKX Futures) Descending trendline breakoutLitecoin printed a dragonfly doji on 50MA support, looks bullish for the days to come. ⚡️⚡️ #LTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: OKX Futures Signal Type: Regular (Long) Leverage: Isolated (9.0X) Amount: 4.8% Current Price: 78.97 Entry Targets: 1) 78.32 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 81.98 Stop Targets: 1) 76.49 Published By: @Zblaba CRYPTOCAP:LTC OKX:LTCUSDT.P #Litecoin #PoW litecoin.org Risk/Reward= 1:2.0 Expected Profit= +42.1% Possible Loss= -21.0% Estimated Gaintime= 2-3 days
Long
by TradingOn
DXY - Long Trade Idea (ICT)Hi guys! I feel like the Dollar Index is primed to move higher. It has so far been acting how I have anticipated, respecting institutional order flow. Let's breakdown what has happening, and my thought process around it. In May, price retraced after a consolidation, engineering equal highs. This bodes well for my bullish outlook. Price bottomed it's retracement on the 7th June 2024. If you check the Dollar futures chart took out buyside liquidity and created an SMT divergence on the DXY chart. Because of this, I am more confident in price not coming down to take out the relative equal lows below. Price expanded from there, and retraced into a weekly wick CE coupled with a daily bullish Orderblock, halting in its tracks and expanding higher again. The sudden drop and equally sudden recover adds additional confluence to my bullish outlook, not because of the "strength" but because of the manipulation of sentiment. Now we are re-entering a previously used weekly SIBI for the potential of using it as an iFVG. We did not close the weekly conventionally higher than the actual iFVG, as I would usually like, but the bullishness of the previous week's candle leaves the idea open of us expanding higher in the coming week with little retracement below it's open, therefore creating a BISI that may or may not be used later. As for targets, first is the previous month's high that is coupled with equal highs. The two other targets are a weekly swing high that goes way back, and a New Week Opening Gap which is deeper into the general liquidity void residing above. If you enjoyed this analysis, leave a like or a comment. If you want to learn how to analyze like this, check out my profile for more videos and information. Happy Trading! - R2F
TVC:DXYLong
by Road_2_Funded
2024-06-12 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment What a time to be alive. Bulls got another huge breakout to the upside which opens new targets above. There is a reasonable chance that this bubble continues much further than anyone could ever dream of, just like all the Nvidia employee’s who sold their stock < 100. Couple more days and half of the sp500 will be made of 7 companies. Bears are not getting any help from the news side and bulls are just peak euphoric. Buying everything anytime is making money, so this will continue until it stops. Dax, Russel2000 and DJI are not participating which speaks to the concentration of the price advances to a small basket of stocks. Commodities had big reversal days, producing bad looking bull bars on the daily chart. Gold was rejected at the daily 20ema and Oil reversed after peaking above the bear trend line from April. I expect more weakness tomorrow. sp500 e-mini futures comment: My daily chart is ugly, yes i know. Works though. I have painted 3 wave series for you, which all end around 5500-5600. I won’t write more about this. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 5300 - 5600 bull case: Bulls did it again. A minor pull-back is expected though. Given that tomorrow is Friday, I would not be surprised if we do another 1-2% day to just get this bull trend over with. Straight melt up. Anything below 5360 would be a huge surprise. Invalidation is below 5360. bear case: CPI came in soft and the FED is not having any effect on markets currently. Melt up was inevitable. Bears not doing anything and waiting for more bulls to show signs of exhaustion and profit taking. 5500-5600 is where I expect selling pressure to rise again. The 38 point drop from ath 5454 was a bit unexpected tbh but the 1h ema held. Invalidation is above 5460. short term: As long was the 1h ema holds and market stays above 5400, it’s max bullishness. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Just higher lows since Globex, market showed signs of knowing the CPI print, because it went max long into the release and every one tick dip was bought.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
Should I buy Axis Bank in FNO for positional trade?It is said that RSI has the power to fool you... There is a bearish divergence in the daily chart of Axis Bank Fut but if you notice, RSI has gone up tin the overbought zone multiple times but hasn't broken the 30 mark on the downside. RSI basically indicates strength and it not breaking the oversold range at 30 means that the stock has strength and that the divergence may be false. Secondly, the candles are trading comfortably above 21 and 50 EMA which is again a buy signal. Now, let's talk about Fibonacci retracement. The stock in in an uptrend and there was a retracement as expected. The prices went down and took support at 0.382 (1092.95) and bounced right back up and easily crossed not only 0.50 (1122.50) and 0.618 (1152.05) but looks like it is holding strong above it. Now, if this continues, the upside can easily be around 1247.70 and 1315.80 but then there is selling pressure as well so I will watch the support at 1122.50 which is the 0.50 level because 50 EMA stands above it at 1169.93.
NSE:AXISBANK1!Long
by travellingtradermumbai
#ES_F Day Trading Prep for Week 6.09 - 6.14Last Week : Last week it looked like we found balance inside the Value of 5368 - 5207 Range and I was early trying to call a potential Intraday balance range to be spending time around, instead market pushed back into VAH which was the spot where many were shorting the first time around and most likely the spot where a lot were shorting on that move inside Tuesday Globex/Wednesday RTH expecting a bigger move down but instead market failed to get back under VAH and pushed out trapping and squeezing shorts into the upper Edge again. We spent Thursday and Friday Globex building Supply inside it which got flushed back down under the Edge and Key area of 5341 - 36 but that was all the supply we had for now and we were able to get back inside 5386.50 - 36 Intraday Range and find balance inside it as we pushed above the Edge hit Key area and came back inside the Means of the range to close inside the Edge. This Week : Maybe this will finally become our range to find longer term balance in ? Market has been ripping up and down through intraday ranges back and forth without spending too much time in each, it has been a while since we had longer term balancing action and after big moves and everyone getting used to expansions to the upside and downside I think Market needs that and has been looking for a place to do that. Of course we have to be careful and adapt if things change but so far what the structure is showing us is that we are at ATH and at Key HTF Area, we don't have strong size buyers up here who want to keep pushing us higher as we saw from fails at and over this 5368 area, we can see that buyers most likely put together their cost inside lower Value above VAL after we flushed it and came back in, meaning here smart long will be sellers but for now this is the only supply that we have since are at ATH which means for any bigger back fills or moves lower we either need SIZE sellers which we might not get up here since its Summer time and they don't see any structure or build up of enough supply which they could later use to cover lower with if they would sell up here since market ran out of Supply lower. IF this is the case then this will potentially be our Balance area here between above VAL and VAH of lower HTF Range, this tells us that any moves to or under Key Supports could find their way back inside the Edge and moves above the Edge top and above 5386 - 81 Key Resistance that don't find acceptance in or above VAL would find their way back inside the Edge as well. We are in a new month and this area could be our balance for some time, and we have to be careful with looking for too much continuation above or below these areas for time being. To see acceptance higher we would need to see market build up over Edge top and take out VAL and balance around 5397 - 5412 area without coming back in, and to find acceptance lower again we would need to be able to hold under Key Support and push back into VAL without coming back over, until then will be looking to trade 5386.50 - 36 Intraday Range. Levels to Watch : Current Range 5386.50 - 5336 5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance 5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means - where price will want to keep returning towards and balance between 5341 - 36 Key Support IF Accept over Key Resistance, range is 5432 - 81.50 5432 - 27 Key Resistance 5401.50 - 5397.50 // 5416 - 12 Means IF Accept under Key Support, range 5341 - 5290.25 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Middle East heats up, GOLD recovers despite USD strengthDespite the strength of the US Dollar, spot gold OANDA:XAUUSD still increasing strongly and stably. Growing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and falling US bond yields have provided bullish momentum for gold prices. In addition, tensions in the Middle East have stimulated gold prices to attract safe-haven buying. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 3 basis points to 4.297%, the lowest since April, after the U.S. ADP jobs report was weaker than expected. Data released Wednesday showed U.S. companies added fewer jobs than expected in May, consistent with a recent cooling trend in the labor market. Data released Wednesday by the ADP Research Institute, a subsidiary of private employment agency ADP, and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab show the number of private sector jobs in the United States. rose 152,000 in May. The median forecast of economists surveyed was for a rise of 175,000. Markets speculate that the slowing economy will create conditions for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. Traders in the federal funds futures market are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by about 50 basis points by the end of the year. Iran's latest threat: Israel must "pay with blood"! Summary of content related to the situation in the Middle East: Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, threatened to retaliate against Israel on Wednesday (June 5). Earlier this week, Israel launched an attack in Aleppo, Syria, killing an Iranian adviser. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to recover from the technical level that served as support noted by readers in the previous issue at $2,324. However, the upward momentum is temporarily limited by EMA21, an important technical point that is currently acting as the nearest resistance. For gold to have enough technical conditions for a wider price increase in the near future, it needs to surpass the EMA21 level and then the target level is noted at the original price point of 2,400 USD. Currently, the trend of gold prices is mainly to increase with the above conditions for price increase. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,358 – 2,344 – 2,340 – 2,324USD Resistance: 2,375 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2381 - 2379 ⚰️SL: 2385 ⬆️TP1: 2374 ⬆️TP2: 2369 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2338 - 2340 ⚰️SL: 2334 ⬆️TP1: 2345 ⬆️TP2: 2350
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2024-06-11 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Dax continues with daily new lows in a two-sided market. Nasdaq made another ath 48 points higher and broke above it’s wedge. Mixed markets going into tomorrows CPI and FOMC releases. I expect nothing less of a firework to either direction. For sp500 and nasdaq I expect a complete blow-off top if CPI is not really hot and then only Jpow can save the bears. For nasdaq at this point the 20000 target is absolutely reasonable and in reach. If the numbers align tomorrow, we will see more bear slaughter. Commodities had a trading range day. Gold is trying to grind higher but new highs get sold off hard on bigger volume and oil is keeping it above 77, which is very bullish imo. Bulls can probably get another leg up to 80 again. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Bulls got their big leg up to a new ath again. It’s still not breaking clearly above 5400, which would make all bears capitulate so we can melt to 5500 or higher. It’s a clear trading range with small higher highs. Everything below 5340 is bought, so you know exactly where to buy. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5330 - 5387 bull case: Again, I can not go full-bull because we are still inside the trading range. Tomorrow will bring a big move to either side. Bull targets have been in my weekly chart for many months now. On the daily chart you can draw multiple bull wedges and market broke above the smallest today. Confirmation would be above 5400. Invalidation is below 5360. bear case: Bears had a rather strong EU session but bulls gave em the finger with bar 10 and a 40 point reversal. They need to keep it below 5400 or I think many stops will be triggered and bears will give up. If bears get help from CPI or Jpow tomorrow, 5300 is the obvious first target and below that comes last week’s low 5200. TBH I can see a move down to 5155, which is the 50% pb from this trading range 4935 - 5385. If CPI prints hot and Jpow hammers on top, the market will have to react because it is not positioned for any risk what so ever. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: Bearish here at 5386 for at least 5355 again. Invalid above 5400. Don’t trade tomorrow’s news events. It’s mostly gambling. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long 5340 or since bar 10. No if’s or buts. Has worked the last days so expect it to work again until it clearly stops working.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
EURGBP eyes support ahead of UK CPI printEURGBP initially began the year in a fairly well-defined trading range but showed bullish impetus after breaking out of the consolidation pattern. However, bullish momentum appeared lacking, as the pair struggled to maintain a steady directional move and has since shown a penchant towards mean reversion. 0.8635 proved too high to handle for the pair previously but the most recent bullish advance fell short of that, finding resistance around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) before heading lower. The current spate of selling is showing signs of fatigue as the pair attempts to trade higher after four successive days of losses. The pair could find itself propped up by trendline support, which caught the bottoms in April and earlier on in May. Keep an eye out for UK CPI tomorrow where there is an expectation of a notable move lower from the prior month. With such optimism, comes the potential for disappointment if the actual data fails to reach the low levels anticipated which may see sterling lift in the moments after the print. April data has the potential to surprise to the upside as this is the month when annual price rises and index-linked increases are implemented. On the other side of the equation, if the CPI data prints inline or lower than consensus estimates, EURGBP may rise off support as markets clear the way for a Bank of England cut sooner rather than later.
by Xayah_trading
Published weekly, PCE cools down but does not yet support GOLDAlthough PCE data shows inflation has cooled, gold prices OANDA:XAUUSD Still reversed Friday's gains and fell to close at $2,327/ounce. PCE data was in line with market expectations, but core PCE data was below analysts' expectations, suggesting inflation in the US is cooling faster than the market expected. So fundamentally the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates sooner rather than later increases. Lower interest rates tend to be positive for gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and precious metal prices increase following data releases. However, gold prices marked their weekly decline as the weekend trading session ended. Data that Fed officials received this week confirm that inflation remains on a bumpy but downward path, but policymakers are unlikely to change their view and are expected to continue continues to emphasize that they need to see more evidence of this. Government data released Friday showed the Federal Reserve's favored measure of core inflation cooled in April and rose at its slowest pace this year. First-quarter GDP growth was revised downward, with data showing a surprise drop in consumer spending in April. The reports painted a picture of the economy slowing, in line with what policymakers want to see, dispelling concerns that prices are rising rapidly, but officials may want to More such evidence in the coming weeks. Only then will the decision to cut interest rates have many prospects of being fundamentally realized. U.S. monthly headline PCE in April was in line with expectations at 0.3%, while annual headline PCE was also steady at 2.7%. Monthly core PCE fell to 0.2% in April from 0.3% in March and annual core PCE was unchanged at 2.8%. Personal income fell to 0.3%, down from 0.5% the previous month. Personal spending decreased from 0.7% to 0.2%. Chicago's PMI in May was 35.4, lower than the previous value of 37.9, significantly lower than the forecast of 41. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fed Watch tool, federal funds futures pricing data shows a 45.2% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September and a 25% probability of a rate cut. basis points (bps) is 47%. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that during the week of May 28, net long positions in COMEX gold held by speculators fell by 14,751 contracts to 179,221 contracts. Fundamentally, it is clear that gold has certain conditions that support its ability to increase in price while macro data is still supporting the Fed to cut interest rates sooner. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of precious metals, especially gold. Noteworthy data and events next week Monday: US ISM manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Wednesday: US ADP Employment Change, Bank of Canada interest rate decision, ISM services PMI Thursday: European Central Bank interest rate decision, US initial jobless claims Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Data Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has had multiple recovery sessions from technical levels that acted as support for readers' attention throughout the previous issue at the price point of 2,324USD; but recoveries are limited by the 21-day moving average (EMA21), and EMA21 is also the current closest technical resistance. The weekly close was also right at the nearest support level at $2,324, a support level that has powered previous rallies but it has also been tested quite a few times and once it broke below, gold There are conditions to continue to reduce more with the target level then being around 2,305 - 2,300 USD. The RSI strength index is pointing down without reaching the oversold area, which shows that there is still technical room to the downside so the best possible area to start buying should be around 30% of the index. this newspaper. The case where the gold price has enough conditions to recover further is when it can surpass the EMA21. In the near future, in terms of technical factors, gold will lean more towards a bearish outlook. And the notable technical levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,353USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2346 - 2344 ⚰️SL: 2350 ⬆️TP1: 2339 ⬆️TP2: 2334 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD rises but limited by EMA21, pay attention to ADP and NFPThe US manufacturing industry lost more momentum and increasingly fell into a state of contraction. This data led to an increase in interest rate cut expectations, the US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields fell, and the gold market regained momentum and remained around 2,350 USD/ounce. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced that the US manufacturing index fell to 48.7% in May, down from 49.2% in April. The data was weaker than expected, with consensus predicting the index will improve slightly to 49.8. The gold market has seen some initial buying momentum as it recovers from lows, disappointing economic data has created fresh buying in the market. Markets increasingly expect that the slowing economy will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, even as inflation remains relatively high, higher than the Fed's target of level 2 inflation. %. The market expects an 82% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in November. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank will almost certainly cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.75% on Thursday, likely potentially become the first major central bank to cut interest rates this cycle. Investors are now looking forward to the ADP jobs report on Wednesday and US nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered again and maintained price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which can be considered a positive signal. However, the recovery momentum is also limited by the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As noted to readers in previous publications, in order for the gold price to have more basis for its rising prospects, it needs to bring price activity above EMA21, then the short-term target level is noticed. at original price of 2,400 USD. Temporarily, at the present time, the gold price is not yet qualified to increase in price, but on the other hand, the short-term technical trend is more inclined towards the possibility of price decrease. And notable technical points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,340 – 2,324USD Resistance: 2,353USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2376 - 2374 ⚰️SL: 2380 ⬆️TP1: 2369 ⬆️TP2: 2364 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2324 - 2326 ⚰️SL: 2320 ⬆️TP1: 2331 ⬆️TP2: 2336
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1