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2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Markets went mostly flat today. Dax sears tried and were rejected again and sp500 and nasdaq made higher lows and lower highs. Markets are forming triangles which means we are in breakout mode again. No surprise moving into CPI and FOMC this week. I expect more sideways movement until then. Commodities all green, while Gold is flat, Oil continued the pull-back big time to get back to 78. Bulls strength surprised me tbh. The pull-back is already too strong for the bear trend to continue much further. Oil trading range is probably 72 - 80 for the next weeks. wti crude oil comment: Don’t long at the top of a expanding triangle and after a huge buy climax. In my weekly outlook I wrote that we will hit the daily ema at around 77 again but I obviously did not expect it to be done so fast. Oil was still in a trading range until the breakout above 76.23 but bulls kept at it and the 15m ema held into US close. Since we are at the top of the expanding triangle, I am not interested in buying up here. A pull-back is reasonable here but as of right now, bulls are in full control until bears break below the 15m ema and one should not short into such a strong trend. 78 should be bigger resistance. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 72 - 80 bull case: With today the bear trend concludes imo, since the move was too strong to be part of the bear trend. The 72.48 low could be retested over the next days to weeks but the downside is probably limited to around that area. Bulls want the strong momentum to continue and get most bears stops above 80. It would be insanely strong, if they could break above the bear channel in one giant move over two days. It’s very low probability that this will happen. If it does, we are probably facing an macro event over the next days. Invalid below 70 bear case: Bears gave up above 76.3 and market moved fast to 78. If bears can not keep it below 78, we will probably melt more up to 80. My line in the sand for bears was around 77-77.5 but bulls melted through. Not many arguments for the bears here until they get below the 15m ema and stop the market from making higher highs. short term: Bullish af. If this continues, we see 80 soon. If we see 79 in Globex, the chances of an event are big imo. Something is up. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday current swing trade: None trade of the day: I had no interest in buying above 75.5 and under 76.3 but missed the big breakout. Bad trading on my part. Had to get long since bar 9 or latest bar 10.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and monthly bar more buying than selling signals. You could argue that we are building a similar structure to April, where we had the double top and then only lower highs until bears finally accelerated it down big time and we got below 5000. Could this happen here too? Of course. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday. comment: Monday and Tuesday were bullish dojis on the daily chart but bears finally gave up on Wednesday where we did all of the points gained for last week. I said that the bear case was weak at best and that stays the same, until bears will get below the breakout bar and price of 5300. That levels needs to become resistance, for bears to have a shot. I do think the price action speaks more of a leg inside a trading range and we just made a higher high, but if bulls can get above 5400, that take is wrong and we are in W5 which could bring us to 5500/5600. current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. It’s unclear. We do not get consecutive bull trend bars on the daily chart since first half of May. The daily chart makes higher prices but only through spikes, followed by pull-backs or dojis. This is not behaving like a leg in a strong bull trend. key levels: 5300 - 5400 bull case: Market refuses to go down but it’s not as bullish as it seems. A deeper pull-back is around the corner imo. Bulls are still in full control and could get another spike up, if market chooses to front-run the events or interpret the news as bullish. Chart is clear imo, W5 can lead to 5500 or higher but for that to happen, bulls need a strong break above this wedge top. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears gave up on Wednesday after trying on Monday and Tuesday. The only thing they had going for them over the last 15 weeks was, that they kept weekly closes below 5300, which should have been bigger resistance. Looking at the weekly and monthly chart, it’s just bullish, despite the up moves getting weaker and bulls only get single spikes and no follow through. No matter if we get a W5 up, market will have a deeper pull-back like the one from April to below 5000. We will at least touch the bull trend line again over the next couple of weeks, if not break it. Bears need consecutive daily closes below 5300 for that to happen. Invalidation is above 5400. outlook last week: “ Neutral until bulls get follow through. I do think bulls are favored but we are right at the upper bull flag line and it’s a weak bear trend inside this bull flag until bulls stop the lower lows and make higher highs again. ” → Last Sunday we traded 5295 and now we are at 5355. 5260 was my target for the bears and the weekly low as 5246. The lows held and bulls pushed it above 5350, which was my bullish target. So both prices I laid out got hit. short term: Bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500 or higher but only if it happens until end of Tuesday. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500/5560. —unchanged current swing trade: Not interested in buying up here, except intraday scalps. If CPI comes in hot, I will initiate new long term shorts. Chart update: Removed the bull flag, that’s it.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears sold 80 again and will probably take profits here at 77 or try to get 76 again. If they get a breakout below, we will probably test 75, which is a price I thought we would test for 5-7 weeks now. It’s a bad sell here at 77 for bears so best they can get is sideways movement. comment: Fair to say that bears surprised me big time on Monday with the huge follow through selling through previous bigger support. 72 stopped the fall and created an expected bounce. I do think this was W5 and my bearish targets are all met for now. Market should move sideways to up from here. On Friday we got a perfect retest of the breakout price of 76 and that was resistance for now. Worst case scenario for bulls would be to stay below 76. The bull trend line will get retested and should hold for now. current market cycle: Bear trend which could transition into a trading range here key levels: 72-78 bull case: The best the bulls can hope for, is for the lows to hold and to move sideways and hit the daily ema again. They failed at keeping it above 75, which was huge support. Last bear leg inside this bigger trading range was 11 weeks long from high to low and we are currently at 9 weeks. Bulls will want to find support here around 70-72 and trade back up to at least 78 over the next 8-12 weeks. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Huge bear surprise imo on Monday and bears want to keep it max bearish and they will do that by keeping the market below the breakout price around 76 and below the daily ema. They want a retest of 72.5 again and poke the bull trend line enough for bulls to give up there. If they actually get an acceleration of this bear trend, which is the low probability thing, they could retest 70 next and below 70 comes 67 as support. Invalidation is above 80.5. outlook last week: “R:R is on the bull side here at the bottom of this range. I wait for confirmation on Monday before going long for 80 again. Below 76 we could get to 75 but that would require strong momentum for me to go short down here.” → Last Sunday we traded 76.99 and now we are at 75.53. High of the week was 77.52 so the uber bearish price action, was surprising to me. I did not advise you to be bullish, unless there confirmation for the bulls and obviously that did not happen. So my bearish target of 75, if we go below 76, was alright but way too short of 72.48. Not a good outlook. short term: Neutral because I think we will hit the daily ema again and a retest of 72.5ish. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know which comes first. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 83. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. Market will probably move more inside this big range until we get a new big cycle to either side. current swing trade: None chart update: Added my pretty bear channel, adjusted 5-wave series and added a two-legged pullback, which we are probably in as of now. The red ABC is how I imagine it to play out price-wise, not time wise. We should see a retest of the lows as well as the daily ema. I don’t know which comes before what or when. Also adjusted the big bear trend line from 2022.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - goldGood Day and I hope you are well. old futures Quote from last week: bear case: The smaller bull trend line was clearly broken and retested and the higher time frames also give more sell than buy signals. It’s a two-legged correction here to the ema and that is a perfect sell signal. They want follow through on Monday for target 2300. comment: This market behaved as I said it would. The high of 2406 was a bit higher than expected but overall read was perfect. We are in W3 which should lead a bit lower to around 2270ish before we get another sideways to up movement. If W4 stays below 2350, W5 should bring us to at least 2200. That is a 120 point move in Gold for you. Let’s see how it will play out. Small possibility that 2300 stays support and we move more sideways. Would reevaluate my take on this then. current market cycle: trading range until break below 2300 , which would confirm a bear trend, probably down to 2200. I favor the bears heavily here but leave room for 2300 being stronger support than I think it is. key levels: 2300 - 2400 / below 2300 comes 2270 in play bull case: Bulls continued in the expanding triangle and got their retest of 2400, just to be violently sold by the bears. Twitter and news salespeople want you to believe it was due to news that China won’t buy any more Gold. But how do they explain the W1 from 2477 down to 2334? That started 2 weeks ago. Only objective now for the bulls is to keep it above 2300, otherwise 2270 comes next. Invalidation is below 2300. bear case: My bear channel tells how you I feel about Gold. Now bears need to print lower lows and keep the pull-back for W4 mostly sideways and under 2350. I fully expect to hit 2200 over the next weeks and then we will find out how many people want to buy Gold again. Invalidation is above 2360. outlook last week: “Still preferring that second leg down to 2200. Bearish below 2340 and neutral 2340-2390.” → Last Sunday we traded 2345 and now we are at 2325. My target to the EMA was on point and good for about 30 points and my downward target to 2270 is still valid. Good outlook. short term: Bearish. Big bear surprise on Friday and I expect follow through. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —unchanged current swing trade: Short from 2374. SL is 2406. Chart update: I like my new bear channel. I trade it and I made money so far with it. Hope you can make some too with it.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
GOLD continuing downtrendOANDA:XAUUSD reached a peak of $2,450 in May but has since fallen over 4%. This shift indicates a change in investor sentiment, with bullish investors likely seeking other opportunities. The weakness in gold may persist due to factors like inflation and the US central bank's restrictive stance. Traders watching short positions should pay attention to the $2,335 support zone. This area combines important technical indicators, such as a key trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-May rally. If the price decisively falls below $2,335 with above-average trading volume, it would be a strong selling signal. If the price drops below $2,335, the next important level to watch is the 50-day simple moving average at $2,325. Breaking this support could lead to a further decline, with potential downside targets around $2,265, which is a critical Fibonacci level near this month's lowest point. If bulls regain control and prices rise, resistance at $2,365 and $2,377 may pose a challenge. However, surpassing this level could change bearish sentiment and potentially lead to a rally towards $2,420. Further strength could even bring the all-time high back into play.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD moves sideways ahead of Fed's favorite inflation dataDuring the trading session on the Asian market on Friday (May 31), spot gold decreased slightly, currently at 2,339 USD/ounce. On this trading day, investors will receive the most important economic data of the week, US PCE inflation data, which is expected to stimulate the market trend. Gold prices recovered some of Wednesday's losses on Thursday after the US gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy was slowing. US GDP data has revived hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later this year. Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that the US quarterly real GDP rate in the first quarter was 1.3%, below the previous baseline value of 1.3%. .6%, reflecting lower-than-expected consumer spending. Personal spending, the main growth driver of the US economy, increased by 2.0%, compared to the previous initial value of 2.5%. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that 219,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the week ended May 25, compared with expectations of 218,000 and a previous figure of 215,000. U.S. economic growth was slower than in the fourth quarter of last year, suggesting that higher borrowing costs set by the Federal Reserve are having an impact on the economy. Meanwhile, the US Department of Labor revealed that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is increasing. These two factors have weakened the Dollar in the short term. Today (Friday), US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for April will be released. Surveys show that the US PCE price index in April is expected to increase 0.3% monthly and increase 2.7% year-on-year. In terms of more important core data, surveys show that the US core PCE price index for April is expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. . As the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, year-over-year changes in the core PCE price index have a larger impact on policymakers which in turn impacts the underlying trend of gold prices. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Technically, gold is still mainly moving sideways due to the lack of a fundamental impact to create a surge, but overall, it has the conditions to decrease in price due to price activity below EMA21 and an uptrend. in the medium term was broken before. Although the recovery from the technical level of 2,324 USD was noticeable to readers in yesterday's edition, it is also limited by the EMA21, and for gold to be eligible to continue its recovery, it needs to at least reach Price activity is above the 21-day moving average (EMA21). On the other hand, gold is likely to fall more towards $2,305 – $2,300 once $2,324 is broken below. During the day, the technical trend of gold price leans more towards the possibility of price decline with notable levels being listed as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,345 – 2,353USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2376 - 2374 ⚰️SL: 2380 ⬆️TP1: 2369 ⬆️TP2: 2364 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2306 - 2308 ⚰️SL: 2301 ⬆️TP1: 2313 ⬆️TP2: 2318
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GBPZAR rise strong but momentum is near oversold levels The British Pound strengthens against the rand, trading above 24.00 once again. Similar to USD/ZAR, it is also trading above the 200 SMA and approaching the February swing high of 24.59. However, caution is advised as the RSI indicator suggests a potential pullback due to previous instances of oversold conditions. Considering the ongoing coalition talks, a negative outcome could lead to further depreciation of the rand. Resistance is at 24.59 and support is around 23.54 (200 SMA).
by Xayah_trading
2024-06-06 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500 e-mGood Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Very similar to nasdaq so if you are a regular reader, I won’t bore you with a long talk about trading ranges. Bears showed some strength from bar 36 - 53 but bulls are still in BTFD mode and as long as that is profitable, this is what they will continue to do. Bulls are in full control and found acceptance at the highs today. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5320 - 5373 bull case: I think the first time I calculated the 5560 target for sp500 was in February or something. I did not believe we could get there but here we are. If bulls get another break above the current ath and 5400, we can absolutely get there rather sooner than later. Bulls will continue to try buying every dip and it’s just a matter of bears giving up again. Bull trend lines are alive and well and there is no reason for bulls to exit longs. I think they want to keep it above 5350 or bears might think they have a chance. Invalidation is below 5320. bear case: Bears tried and failed, twice. Two-legged moves inside trading ranges are the norm, so everything was in order today for the bulls. Bears are in pain and if bulls can get another strong momentum rally above 5373, we can see capitulation again. If bears manage to somehow break the drawn bull trend line and get strong closes below 5350, we could see 5300. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: Full bull until clear trend-line break and prices below 5350. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: 5370 was rejected many times today, was good for short scalps. Other than that, very tricky day. Buying bar 49 was reasonable but bar 53 was a very big surprise which got many stops. Losing is part of this game, accept it and make peace with it.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
Get support from Middle East, GOLD recovers, bound by EMA21Complicated geopolitical developments are counterbalancing the Fed's recent stance to support gold prices. On the one hand, the Fed strengthens the Dollar compared to other major currencies. On the other hand, gold is also supported. Support when potential market risks are likely to flare up and increase the attractiveness of Precious Metals that do not generate yields. Notable news in the Middle East According to the British news network "Middle East Eye", citing Israeli media on May 27, Egyptian and Israeli soldiers exchanged fire at the Rafah border gate on the border between Egypt and the Gaza Strip that day. An Egyptian soldier died in the fire. The incident was first reported by Israel's Channel 13 and Channel 14, which they called "unusual". Regarding details of the incident, it was reported that Egyptian soldiers opened fire on an Israeli truck at the Rafah intersection and Israeli soldiers returned fire. But this statement has not been officially confirmed. Amid the deteriorating situation in Rafah, this news sent safe-haven gold rapidly higher. However, gold also needs more of these types of impacts to reach its original price of $2,400. Egypt's independent English-language newspaper Daily News cited sources as saying Egyptian soldiers were affected by last Sunday's "Rafa massacre", in which Israeli bombings destroyed a refugee camp in Rafah, killing 45 Palestinians. The Israel Defense Forces said a "shooting incident occurred" on the Egyptian border early Monday morning and that it was investigating the incident and that "dialogue with Egypt is ongoing." A spokesman for the Egyptian Armed Forces also confirmed the exchange of fire late Monday, saying that an Egyptian soldier was killed in the incident. In addition to closely monitoring the situation taking place in the Middle East, traders also need to pay attention to developments from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, etc. Basically, traders need to pay attention to everything. Regardless of any major geopolitical developments happening globally, gold is an asset that easily reacts to sudden news on the market. In recent history, the US-China Trade War, developments in the Middle East at the end of 2019, the Ukraine conflict, and now continuing the war in the Middle East... have all created huge mutations in the world. gold market. During this trading year, we “traders” need to get used to gold moving 2-3% or more in a day, which will happen even more frequently in the near future. Every time a conflict shows signs of escalation, the price of gold creates a new era peak! Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is trying to operate around the EMA21 level as it recovers from the technical level of $2,324, which readers noticed in last Friday's edition. However, the recovery momentum is limited with EMA21. For the gold price to technically qualify for upside, it would at least need to break out and return to operating above the trend and near-term target level followed by the 0.236 trend-following Fibonacci extension %, more than the original price of 2,400USD. Meanwhile, gold is at risk of a further decline if it sells off below the $2,324 support level with a target then around $2,305 – $2,300. Therefore, open long positions should be considered protecting behind the $2,324 level as a reasonable position. During the day, the trend of gold price is neutral with price activity intentionally sticking around the EMA21, and the technical levels of interest will be listed as follows. Support: 2,345 – 2,324USD Resistance: 2,384 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2389 - 2387 ⚰️SL: 2393 ⬆️TP1: 2382 ⬆️TP2: 2377 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2345 - 2347 ⚰️SL: 2341 ⬆️TP1: 2352 ⬆️TP2: 2357
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
TFEX S50 FuturesTFEX S50 Futures looking down in all 3 Trend Primary trends Secondary trends Minor Trends At the moment it is at the -2SD support level of the Volume Normal distribution and POC of Regression Trend Now Volume Profile of last Degree move down to the bottom that might bounce. If looking down, wait for a bounce and then open a short at the POC resistance level or wait for a reversal at the upper edge. If you look up and don't care about the trend, open Long at the support level, set Stop Loss at Low. However, There is a target of going down in the Range Volatile month and 3rd month At 800 it is still the first target. Trade with faith in your beliefs and follow your own plan. C.Goii SuperTrader
TFEX:S501!Short
by CoachGoii_SuperTrader
1
GOLD recovered to EMA21, Middle East situation tense On the Asian market on Monday (May 27), gold was delivered immediately OANDA:XAUUSD increase rapidly in the short term. Gold price touched 2,347 USD/ounce, setting a session high and increasing strongly by more than 13 USD during the day. OANDA:XAUUSD The gains were supported by a weaker US Dollar and rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Tuesday's speeches by Fed officials Bowman, Mester and Kashkari will be closely watched. Affected by the Memorial Day/Spring Bank Holiday, US and UK stock markets will be closed for one day on May 27; CME Group's U.S. crude oil futures and precious metals trading will be suspended at 01:30 Hanoi time on May 28. Gold will get more data from speeches by Fed officials on Tuesday, including those from Bowman, Mester and Kashkari. The US's first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) released on Thursday will be the focus, with GDP expected to grow 1.5% in the first quarter. Stronger-than-expected data could boost the Dollar and continue to pressure gold, whereas weaker-than-expected data would see gold supported and the Dollar weaker. In terms of the fundamental picture, gold is receiving some support that could be transformative as the geopolitical situation becomes complicated again. Previous lessons show that every time the geopolitical situation becomes complicated and escalates, gold sets a new all-time peak. The Israeli army has conducted many air strikes! Killed about 200 people Early on the morning of May 27 local time, the Gaza Strip Media Office issued a statement saying that in the past 24 hours, the Israeli army conducted 10 attacks on 10 areas in the Gaza Strip such as Jebaliya, Nusayrat, and City. Gaza, and northwestern Rafah. Air strikes targeted evacuation centers run by multiple United Nations agencies, killing a total of about 200 people. A day earlier, the Qassan Brigades, an armed faction affiliated with Hamas, said it had launched a "massive rocket" attack on Tel Aviv, Israel, in response to the "massacre of civilians by the regime". Zionism". Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, receiving support from the $2,324 gold level rose quickly to test the $2,345 EMA21 price point which is also the short-term target recovery level sent to you in the weekly publication. Now, with the geopolitical situation becoming more complicated, once gold breaks out of the 21-day EMA and moves above the 21-day moving average and returns to the trend, it is well placed to continue. Technically bullish with a short-term target then aiming for the 0.236% Fibonacci extension and more to the original price of 2,400USD. On the other hand, EMA21 is also the nearest resistance, which provides expectations for the possibility of a price decrease with a target level at 2,324USD, more at 2,305USD. During the day, the technical outlook is still leaning towards the possibility of a price decrease in the case of qualifying for the above increase. Notable prices are listed below. Support: 2,324 – 2,305USD Resistance: 2,384 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2380 - 2378 ⚰️SL: 2384 ⬆️TP1: 2373 ⬆️TP2: 2368 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2306 - 2308 ⚰️SL: 2302 ⬆️TP1: 2313 ⬆️TP2: 2318
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD down 0.17%, focus on GDP and Williams' speechThe benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield increased more than 1% yesterday and is currently in the Asian trading session today May 30, also increasing 0.09% and surpassing 4.6%. , causing gold prices to lose support and continue to decline. Gold spot price OANDA:XAUUSD currently reported at around 2,334USD/oz, a decrease equivalent to 0.17% on the day. After the price of OANDA:XAUUSD reaching a new all-time high, it encountered a sell-off and fell back to more than 120 US Dollars an ounce from a high of 2,450 USD/ounce. The recent trend of the United States maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time will support the US Dollar and high US bond yields, putting some pressure on the precious metals market. However, from a more general perspective if the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates in the future, it will significantly support gold prices. In addition, with the support of factors such as central banks continuously increasing gold purchases and the increasing instability of the global geopolitical situation, the potential for gold prices to increase in the near future still remains. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have made hawkish comments, stimulating demand for the dollar recently. As a result, market sentiment worsened and the US Dollar increased in value. Traders were still absorbing hawkish comments from Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari on Tuesday. He said Fed officials are not ignoring interest rate hikes, adding that they could cut rates up to twice by the end of 2024 in case they do. This week, traders are preparing to release April's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Core PCE is expected to increase 2.8% year-over-year, while overall PCE is expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month. If data shows a rise in inflation this will boost sentiment to keep interest rates high for longer. This situation is negative for gold prices because the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding assets such as gold is increasing. This scenario will be beneficial for interest-earning assets and US Dollar yields. During this trading day, traders should also pay attention to the US GDP Index data, Initial Jobless Claims and Speech by FOMC member Williams. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After the gold price failed to break above the trend (a) note to readers in previous issues it came under pressure and fell back to test the initial notable support level at 2,324 USD. It is worth mentioning that the gold price has fallen below the EMA21 level, providing favorable conditions for a bearish outlook in the near future. If gold falls below the initial support at $2,324 it could continue to decline towards $2,305 – $2,300 in the short term. The relative strength index (RSI) is still pointing down without reaching the oversold level, which shows that there is still technical room for downside. Only when gold moves above the trend will it have enough conditions to continue to recover and increase in price. For the rest of the day, the technical outlook for gold prices leans towards the possibility of a decrease in price with notable positions being identified. listed as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345 – 2,353USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2379 - 2377 ⚰️SL: 2383 ⬆️TP1: 2372 ⬆️TP2: 2367 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2306 - 2308 ⚰️SL: 2301 ⬆️TP1: 2313 ⬆️TP2: 2318
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 06.02 - 06.07Last Week : Last week market opened up outside of Value, build some more supply then started the correction lower, we were able to move down to VAL where we found our first Support where we were able to do some covering but eventually we broke, held under and go continuation towards the Lower Edge, we were able to test its bottom where we ran out of Supply and got a sharp reversal back inside Value for a big move from VAL to VAH. This Week : Going into this week if we look at Structure we can see we did a look below VAL and fail which gave a return trip to VAH which we tagged, build more supply under and Failed which gave another round trip back to VAL and this time we tagged Key Support at 5249.75 - 44.75 and it acted as proper Key Support giving another big bounce all the way back towards Key Area and as we can see end of day push over 5295.50 - 90.25. Globex consolidated over Key Area but was not able to hold and we got a flush back inside the Means of 5295.50 - 44.75 Range. This to me screams balance, and I think market will want to stay around these areas going forward until we will build up enough supply to accept under VAL or get stronger buyers to give us acceptance over VAH. My bias is that we might not see higher prices over 5320-40s for some time but of course we never know and have to trade what market gives, for now I believe this current intraday range can finally become our balance range which we haven't gotten in some time, we have been moving ranges back and forth without spending too long in each and I think its about time we get some good balance action that can last a while. The way I will be trading this we have our intraday range means at 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 this is the area where price might want to keep returning back into, pushes out of them can go towards the Key Edges of 5295.50 - 90.25 as our Resistance and 5249.75 - 44.75 but this is the time to be careful with looking perfect tags or too much continuation outside of Key Edges because if we have found balance we will look for any pushes out of the Means to return back either from failures at/above/below Key Support/Resistance or we could even see pushes out of means that will consolidate above/below without tagging Key Edges and then return back in, and when price is between this will be our balance/build up area. Will continue trading this range until we can see clear acceptance Over or Under Key Support/Resistance and holds over/under VAH/VAL. Levels to Watch : Current Range 5295.50 - 5244.75 Means 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75- 60.75 Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support 5249.75 - 44.75 IF we do happen to leave balance and accept under/over the ranges would be Above : 5341 - 36 Key Resistance 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means 5295.50 - 90.25 Below : 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75 Means 5204.25 - 5199.75 Key Support
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
The franc recovered its lost ground, sending EURCHF lowerThe Swiss National Bank's departing Chairman, Thomas Jordan, believes that a weaker Swiss franc could affect inflation. His remarks led to the franc gaining strength and the EUR/CHF exchange rate dropping. The SNB was the first major central bank to cut interest rates in March, causing the franc to depreciate. However, this depreciation halted in May with the emergence of an evening star pattern. Currently, the EUR/CHF pair is biased towards a decline and has broken below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The next points of interest are the channel support, followed by 0.9694 and the 200 SMA at 0.9565.
by Xayah_trading
MNQ 8H Sell to Buy Idea 4/26/24Since price didn't close above the mid-point of the consolidation zone & an 8H inverted hammer formed at market close, I am looking for price to run bearish at market open and then continue back bullish at some point. Personally I'm not looking for full sells OR actual bearish structure until around 17476 where the current lows in price are at. **This is for educational purposes only and this is not financial advice because I am not a financial advisor.**
CME_MINI:MNQ2!Long
by cecedidit
GOLD fell last week, the market will pay attention to PCEAlthough central bank buying and strong Asian demand have created a long-term fundamental bullish trend for gold, OANDA:XAUUSD , but uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy continues to create large short-term fluctuations, mainly with mixed pressure to strengthen the US Dollar's position. Gold prices rose to a record high above $2,450 an ounce earlier this week as the market began to consolidate expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year. However, the breakout to create a new all-time high was short-lived as gold prices fell more than $100 this week. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed hawkish sentiment, with the central bank reluctant to cut interest rates as inflationary pressures remain high. The meeting minutes stated: "Participants noted that first-quarter inflation data were disappointing and that various indicators pointed to strong economic growth. They estimated that it would take a long time." than previously expected to get inflation closer to 2%.” The minutes also noted that some committee members were willing to raise interest rates if inflation continued to escalate. This news has delayed interest rate cut expectations and November could replace September as the date for the first rate cut. This change has pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher and the U.S. dollar stronger, thereby hitting non-yielding precious metal prices. Gold market OANDA:XAUUSD will be very sensitive to inflation data next week The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, will be released next Friday. Signs of easing price pressures could revive hopes of a Fed rate cut, pushing gold prices higher. If the PCE report is higher than market expectations, it will continue to provide another source of "energy" that has a negative impact on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, causing gold prices to fall even more. While Friday's inflation data will be the main focus in the economic week ahead, broader financial markets will also be closely watching the latest US GDP and consumer confidence data. Notable economic data and events next week Tuesday: Conference Board consumer confidence index Thursday: Preliminary US Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims, pending home sales Friday: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and US Personal Income and Expenditures Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although the gold price has recovered from the technical level of 2,324 USD noted by readers in the last issue, the recovery momentum was soon defeated by the horizontal resistance level of 2,345 USD, the price point marked with moderate attention. horizontal resistance and also the price point of EMA21. As long as it cannot break and move above EMA21, it is still not technically eligible to increase in price. For gold price to be eligible to increase in price, it at least needs to operate above EMA21 and return. above the trend line again, this is also considered resistance, creating technical pressure on gold prices at the present time. In case the aforementioned resistance confluence area is broken above, gold has the opportunity to rally further and head towards the 0.236% Fibonacci levels and the $2,400 level in the short term. On the other hand, if the $2,324 horizontal support level is broken below gold could continue to decline more to the 2,304 level and more to the $2,300 raw price level in the short term. Technically, the gold price is in more favorable conditions for the possibility of a price decrease, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing down without reaching the oversold level, this shows that gold still has room to fall. Notable prices will be listed as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,304 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2371 - 2369 ⚰️SL: 2375 ⬆️TP1: 2364 ⬆️TP2: 2359 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2289 - 2291 ⚰️SL: 2285 ⬆️TP1: 2296 ⬆️TP2: 2301
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
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