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🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 13 - May 17]Gold prices surged to a three-week high of $2,375 an ounce on Friday due to weak U.S. economic data. The University of Michigan's preliminary May consumer confidence index fell to 67.4, lower than expectations. Additionally, there was an unexpected increase in initial jobless claims, reaching the highest level since last August. Investors are now awaiting next week's US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could greatly affect gold prices and the financial market overall. If inflation data released next week shows a slowdown, it could lead to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Financial markets expect the Fed to begin easing monetary policy in September, which could increase the appeal of gold due to lower interest rates. Traders currently see a 25% chance of a 0.5% rate cut in July, rising to nearly 49% in September. Changes in these expectations could impact gold prices. Data from the CFTC shows a decrease in gold futures contracts in the week ending May 7. Financial data and economic events next week: - Tuesday: US Producer Price Index (PPI), Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak in Amsterdam, Netherlands; - Wednesday: US Consumer Price Index (CPI), US retail sales, New York Fed Empire State Survey; - Thursday: US weekly initial jobless claims, US housing starts, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. 📌Gold broke out of an accumulation triangle and has shown two days of significant increases on the daily chart. It surpassed EMA21 and the price channel edge, signaling a potential breakout. If it breaks the bearish channel and goes above $2,366, it could enter a bull run. To confirm bearish conditions, gold would need to fall below EMA21 and stay below $2,330. The current support level is $2,330. The trading plan for next week will consider buying if the price returns to around the 2320 barrier, and selling if the price rises around the 2400 barrier.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
The GOAT Returns - pt1: SPX to 4800I've been away refining my method and have returned to deliver a series of important predictions for the coming weeks. The first is a look at the general market using S&P futures. Here is a summary of this chart: ** 2 key levels (above and below): 5163 was the breakdown level from back in April - a retest of this level for resistance is very bearish, but if it breaks back above it can continue higher to 5260 where it will run into even greater resistance (dashed green path) 5040 is an equilibrium level that needs to hold as support if bulls want to keep this afloat. A direct break below 5040 is bearish. Expectation : A rejection at/around 5163 in the coming week OR a direct break below 5040 will initiate a selloff to 4800 by May 22nd, 2024. Depending on when we get either of the bearish signals outlined above, the earliest the drop to 4800 could occur is by 5/13/2024. ~We are completing a B-wave and the drop to 4800 will be the C wave in this corrective cycle off the April high. The extent of this B-wave will be determined by the parameters listed above (estimated B-wave will be from current peak 5140 to upper resistance 5260, 5140-5163 is the most likely ) ~Major distribution over the past month. I'm out of all longs and waiting for my signal to enter short positions. Not Financial Advice.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by JerryManders
35
Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but cautious given the 8 consecutive green days. The risk of a sudden pullback increases as the market becomes more overbought. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5235 (major), 5221-17 (major), 5210 (major) Major Supports: 5192 (major), 5174-76 (major), 5144-47 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5262 (major), 5272 (major) Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5327-29 (major), 5400-05 (major) Trading Strategy Chop Zone Management: The 5235-5262 zone is a chop area, making it difficult to trade with high conviction. Avoid overtrading and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5235 or 5210 for long entries. Prioritize reactions at these levels, ideally with quick recoveries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at 5192, 5174-76. Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. For those inclined to counter-trend shorting, consider 5272 or 5302 as potential levels, but proceed with extreme caution. Bull Case Uptrend Continuation: As long as 5235 holds (or any breakdown is quickly recovered), the bullish trend remains intact. Focus on a potential base building within the 5235-5262 range, followed by an upside breakout targeting 5272, 5290, and ultimately 5302. Ultra Bull Case: No dip below 5235, with continued basing above it. Reclaiming 5245 could be a signal to add exposure, but only with acceptance and no break above 5262. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5235 would trigger a potential correction. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5231, 5221-17, and 5210 for short entry opportunities, but prioritize a more significant level like 5192 for confirmation and to avoid traps. News: Top Stories for May 14th, 2024 China's Strategic Bond Sale: China initiates a substantial bond sale, aiming for $140 billion to combat its property crisis and stimulate economic growth through infrastructure projects. Russia's Economic Resilience: Despite Western sanctions, Russia's economy shows unexpected strength, with GDP projected to outpace the U.S. This resilience is attributed to increased non-oil revenues and strategic fiscal management. Indonesia's Nickel Boom: Western car manufacturers are flocking to Indonesia for its nickel resources, crucial for electric vehicle batteries, highlighting Indonesia's growing importance in the global EV supply chain. Meme Stock Mania Returns: The meme stock phenomenon resurges, with GameStop and AMC Entertainment experiencing significant price volatility following social media activity by influential traders. Global Economic Concerns: Leaders from Serbia, North Macedonia, and Georgia express apprehensions about the requirements for joining international economic communities, potentially impacting regional economic policies. China's Bond Sale and Global Implications: China's upcoming bond sale aims to bolster its economy and could influence global interest rates, foreign exchange markets, and international bond market dynamics. Meme Stock Resurgence and Market Volatility: The return of "Roaring Kitty" to social media sparks a renewed frenzy in meme stocks, leading to dramatic price swings in GameStop, AMC, and BlackBerry.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Three Factors Keeping Oil Prices in CheckAT A GLANCE: Despite ongoing geopolitical conflict, oil prices and volatility are relatively low A rise in U.S. crude production and weak demand in China are helping oil inventories maintain average levels Considering many factors like the Russia-Ukraine war, OPEC+ cutting production by 3.6 million barrels per day and conflict in the Middle East, many traders might be surprised to find out that oil prices are only around $82 per barrel and that implied volatility on crude options are trading at relatively low levels below 40%. Inventories Remain at Average Levels So why are crude oil prices not higher and more volatile? Part of the answer lies in inventories. Crude and product inventories are right around their seasonally adjusted averages for the past five years. This suggests that at least some cushion exists in the event of a supply disruption. Given that oil production is about 3.5% lower globally than it would have been without OPEC+ production cuts, how is it possible that oil inventories are still at average levels? There are two reasons. First, a boom in U.S. production has replaced about one third of what OPEC cut. The second reason is weak demand. China buys about 10 million barrels per day in the international markets, and its economy has been growing much more slowly than it was a few years ago. Slow growth in China often hits oil prices with a lag of about 12 months and may be among the factors preventing a further rise in global crude prices. Higher Prices Expected? That said, traders are displaying some signs of nervousness. The skew on CME Group’s WTI CVOL index is quite positive at the moment, suggesting that some traders are buying out of the money call options to protect themselves from the possibility of much higher prices. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by CME_Group
2
GOLD enters accumulation when there is little fundamental impactThe story in financial markets focuses on when the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy after releasing weak economic data. The U.S. Department of Labor said that nonfarm payroll employment in April was 175,000, lower than expected and lower than March's upwardly revised figure of 315,000. After the data was released, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September increased to 64.8% from 55% before the report. However, the US Dollar has been boosted by recent hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Nir Kashkari, who said the Fed could continue to raise interest rates and set the stage for higher federal funds rates. if inflation does not continue its downward trend. This week's economic calendar will mainly focus on news from Federal Reserve officials, as well as initial jobless claims for the week ending May 4 and a preliminary release of the index. University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers. In general, throughout this week there was no data or events of a very sudden nature, so gold is also less subject to fundamental impacts and is suitable for the current state of narrow range movement. Gold keeping its price activity below EMA21 gives it more room to fall. However, with the current market context, without many fundamental impacts, gold prices may continue to move in a narrow range and enter accumulation. The accumulation area is noticed by EMA21 and the Fibonacci 0.236% level, in which EMA21 is the resistance and Fibonacci 0.236% is the support. If gold falls below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, it will open a new downtrend with the short-term target level being the upper edge of the price channel and more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level. On the other hand, even if price activity rises above the EMA21 level, gold price will still be limited by the 2,365 level and the upper edge of the price channel because the current technical trend is still down in the short term. During the day, gold has a technical outlook of moving sideways and accumulating with notable technical levels as follows. Support: 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,322 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2364 - 2362 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2357 ⬆️TP2: 2352 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2289 - 2291 ⚰️SL: 2285 ⬆️TP1: 2296 ⬆️TP2: 2301
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD accumulates and shrinks,the market lacks fundamental impactScarce U.S. economic data will keep investors focused on Federal Reserve officials in the week following last Friday's U.S. jobs report. Gold prices are trading around 2,312USD/oz after reaching a daily high yesterday of 2,321USD/oz. The story in financial markets focuses on when the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy after releasing weak economic data. The U.S. Department of Labor revealed that nonfarm payroll employment in April was 175,000, lower than expected and lagging March's upwardly revised figure of 315,000. "Lack of progress" in inflation has pushed back expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut from July to September. However, the market still expects three interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points. in this year. The report said that the lack of progress since the beginning of this year means that it will take longer for Fed policymakers to believe that inflation is continuing to fall toward the 2% target. They expect 3-month and 6-month annualized core PCE to be "near or below" 2% by the end of the year, in which case it would be "too late" to wait until after September to cut rates . This week's economic calendar will take a closer look at news from Federal Reserve officials, as well as initial jobless claims for the week ending May 4 and a preliminary release of the index. University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is generally still entering the stage of accumulating attention from readers in previous publications. However, gold prices are also becoming more narrowly accumulated as depicted by the green triangle on the chart. In terms of overall factors, gold prices are more likely to decline because the main trend has not changed, noticed by the short-term downward price channel and the latest pressure from the 21-day moving average EMA21. As long as the gold price remains below the EMA21, it still has enough room to fall in the short term. Meanwhile, gold could open a new bearish cycle if it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, then the target level is aimed around the lower channel edge and upper channel edge, more likely to be the 0.382 Fibonacci level %. Temporarily, gold prices will continue to tend to accumulate without much macroeconomic impact on the market. But the technical conditions still favor the possibility of price reduction as mentioned above. During the day, notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,330 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2351 - 2349 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2339 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2268 - 2270 ⚰️SL: 2264 ⬆️TP1: 2275 ⬆️TP2: 2380
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought and due for a pullback. Traders are advised to exercise extreme caution and prioritize protecting gains over chasing further upside. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5236 (major), 5225, 5213 (major) Major Supports: 5202-04 (major), 5186 (major), 5155 (major), 5112-15 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5261 (major), 5272 (major), 5303 (major) Major Resistances: 5329 (major), 5354 (major), 5398-5400 (major) Trading Strategy Pullback Anticipation: Expect a pullback after 7 consecutive green days. Be prepared for a sudden reversal and adjust your strategy accordingly. Long Opportunities: Prioritize failed breakdowns at 5236, then 5213 for long entries. Look for bounces and reclaims, especially if price dips below 5209. Consider deeper longs at major supports (5186, 5155) only if the market shows substantial weakness. Short Opportunities: While avoiding shorting green candles and breaking trends is advised, monitor back-tests of 5272 and 5303 for potential short entries. Proceed with extreme caution and be prepared for sharp reversals. Consolidation Zone: Focus on the 5236-5261 range as a potential consolidation zone. Monitor the price action closely within this range for clues about the next directional move. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5236 holds, continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range is likely. This would suggest a pause before a potential breakout toward 5272, 5285-88, and ultimately 5303. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5236 and continue building a base overnight for the most bullish scenario. This could trigger a move higher without a significant dip. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5236 triggers a dip, targeting 5213 initially, with potential to extend to the 5186-5115 zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 13th, 2024 1. Corporate Earnings Surge Details: A notable rise in Q1 2024 earnings has been reported among S&P 500 companies, with a majority exceeding analysts' expectations. Impact: This upsurge signals a strong corporate sector potentially boosting market confidence and influencing stock prices. 2. Central Bank Stances on Interest Rates Context: With persistent inflation, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are cautiously maintaining current interest rates. Implications: This strategy aims to control inflation without disrupting economic stability, reflecting a delicate balance in monetary policy. 3. IMF's Global Growth Forecast Forecast: The IMF projects a global growth rate of 3% for 2024, with potential long-term economic challenges. Significance: This modest growth underscores global economic sluggishness, necessitating strategic economic measures. 4. Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Impact Developments: Tensions in the Middle East are intensifying, affecting global markets and commodity prices. Consequences: These geopolitical issues are critical for financial stability, influencing both market volatility and investor sentiment. 5. Key Economic Indicators Release Upcoming Data: Major economic indicators like consumer price indexes and retail sales are scheduled for release this week. Relevance: These indicators are crucial for assessing the economic health of major economies and will influence forthcoming monetary policy decisions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
DXY(Dollar Index):🟢Possible scenarios🟢(Details on caption)Well hello, traders. Here is my view on the DXY daily chart. As you can see the price left the buy-side liquidity which formed as an equal high, and then respected to the 50% of bullish FVG which is internal range liquidity. In this condition usually, the price seeks to the external range liquidity. So the first scenario is bullish and I follow this scenario (High probability scenario) The second scenario is bearish, if the price respects the bearish order block or mean threshold of this order block we will see the price move down. All in all, if the bearish order block can not hold the price we will see a bullish week, and if the price respects the bearish order block the weekly candle will be bearish. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️01/05/2024 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
TVC:DXYLong
by VahidTradingCR
1
Recovery from Fib0.236%, support and pressure factors for GOLDRisk appetite improved as bets increased that the Federal Reserve could begin easing policy sooner than expected. This comes after Friday's nonfarm payrolls report showed the economy continued to create jobs, albeit at a slower pace. Basic support for OANDA:XAUUSD Market participants continue to digest the latest data from the United States as the April nonfarm payrolls report was weaker than expected. If the next inflation report is weaker than expected, market expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later in the year will be confirmed (certainly). Fundamental pressure on OANDA:XAUUSD The latest news comes from ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East. On May 6, Hamas issued a statement agreeing with the ceasefire proposal in the Gaza Strip proposed by mediators. This information has cooled the market's risk aversion, putting gold prices under pressure to adjust. Hamas said in a statement that Hamas Politburo leader Haniyeh informed Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed and Egyptian General Intelligence Director Abbas Kamal about the decision by phone that day. An Israeli official said Israel received Hamas's response to Egypt's ceasefire and agreement to release detainees. Israel Defense Forces spokesman Hagari issued a statement on May 6 saying that Hamas had accepted the ceasefire proposal mediated by Egypt. The Israeli side is carefully considering every content of the proposal and making every effort to promote related negotiations and "all possibilities" to release the detainees. At the same time, the Israeli army will continue military operations in the Gaza Strip. According to Cairo News TV on May 6, citing sources from the Egyptian intelligence agency, the Egyptian delegation responsible for mediating the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that day received a "positive response" from Hamas and Israel. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to recover from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level but the upside recovery is also limited and is under pressure to react to the downside from the 21-day moving average EMA21. On the other hand, the short-term trend of gold price is still an uptrend from the price channel, as long as gold is still operating below the EMA21 and within the price channel, it still tends to be down in the short term. Currently, gold is technically at $2,322 and if it breaks below this level gold could continue to decline to test the 0.236% Fibonacci level once more. In case the gold price continues to sell off below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, it will open a new bearish cycle with the maximum target level at the 0.382% Fibonacci level. During the day, the technical downtrend of gold prices is noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,322 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2364 - 2362 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2357 ⬆️TP2: 2352 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2303 - 2305 ⚰️SL: 2299 ⬆️TP1: 2310 ⬆️TP2: 2315
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD still has the ability to recoverAfter the release of US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data lower than market expectations, gold quickly increased in price, reaching 2,320 USD/ounce. However, this high level did not last long due to profit-taking pressure and gold quickly fell to close weekly at 2,301 USD/ounce. Although the easing cycle may be delayed, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made clear that interest rates will not go higher. “I think it's unlikely that the next policy change will be to raise interest rates,” Powell said at a news conference. I would say that is unlikely to happen.” Adding to gold's volatility was Friday's jobs data, which showed the US economy created 175,000 jobs in April, significantly less than expected. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and wage growth fell short of expectations. While the jobs report supported interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pushing up gold prices, uncertainty about timing continued to dominate market sentiment and investors were likely to Take advantage of the recovery to take profits. In the coming time, gold traders still need to pay attention to macro data and Fed speeches to have more data to guide their assessment of when the Fed will cut interest rates. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for longer and upbeat market sentiment have become key factors weakening safe-haven demand for gold. However, at the latest FOMC meeting the prospect of a less hawkish Fed led to widespread dollar weakness and helped limit gold's decline, so caution is warranted. A basic direction for gold prices leans towards the possibility of a price decrease. Data to watch out for is data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showing that speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures fell by 9,018 contracts to 167,139 contracts for the week ends April 30. Next week, the market will also witness the sudden appearance of a number of central bank governors. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak in New York; Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak at an event in South Carolina; New York Fed President John William James will speak at a conference in California; and Chicago Fed President Austen Goolsby will speak at the Minnesota Economic Club. Meanwhile, investors will focus on data on consumer confidence and inflation expectations later this week. Economic data to watch next week Wednesday: 10-year bond auction Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision, weekly jobless claims, 30-year bond auction Friday: Preliminary data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Last week, gold performed quite stably with a short-term bearish structure from the trend price channel. Stay within range with nearest support from 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and resistance at $2,322 in the short term and beyond at EMA21 and $2,345. Although the expected recovery at 2,365 USD continued to fail last week, maintaining above the original price level of 2,300 USD and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level should be considered positive conditions for recovery expectations. continues to appear next week. As long as the bearish does not break below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it still has room to recover with a target level of around $2,365. However, in case the 0.236% Fibonacci level is broken below, it could cause the gold price to drop even more with a possible price drop to 2.223 or more to the 0.382% Fibonacci level. Therefore, if the 0.236% Fibonacci level is broken below, it is not advisable to open long positions, it is also time to protect open long positions around 2,284USD. The point of complete breakout of the 0.236% Fibonacci level should be determined by price activity below the lower edge of the price channel. Next week, the prospect of a bullish recovery inside the price channel will be noticed again with the following technical levels. Support: 2,284USD Resistance: 2,322 – 2,345 – 2,365USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#ARPA - Long Strategy (Swing Position - Futures)We have surpassed the decision level, which is the black line, from the weekly classic pivot points in the “Arpa” token. Currently, we are above the decision level. The trend appears positive on a weekly basis. The decision level at the 0.6633 region should continue to be monitored. In summary; ▪️ Our upward targets are 0.07423 - 0.07887 - 0.088657. ▪️ The figure we need to follow as the decision level is 0.06633. ▪️ Our downward targets are 0.06162 - 0.055399 - 0.04930. ⭕️ The blue-painted area is a dense selling zone. If a position is entered around these levels, profits should definitely be realized upon contact with the blue shaded area. The price may reverse. Please consider market conditions.
Long
by ByCentralTrader
Trading Plan for Friday, May 10th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 10th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but with a cautious undertone after a significant multi-day rally. Expect potential profit-taking and a reduction in aggressive buying activity. A period of consolidation is highly likely. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5235-37, 5228, 5209 (major), 5203 (major) Major Supports: 5177-79 (major), 5155 (major), 5120 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5268-72 (major) Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5326-28 (major), 5395 (major) Trading Strategy Capital Preservation Focus: After a strong multi-day rally, prioritize protecting your gains. Adopt a defensive posture and consider reducing position sizes. Limited Long Opportunities: Due to the overbought conditions and the potential for a pullback, look for very selective long entries if at all. Focus on failed breakdowns at 5228 or 5203 for potential long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying dips at major support levels, with 5209 or failed breakdowns at 5203 offering potential opportunities. Short Opportunities: While your personal trading rules discourage shorting green candles and breaking trends, monitor back-tests of 5246 and 5268-72 for potential short entries with tight stop losses. Proceed with extreme caution. Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels with strict discipline. Let price action develop, be patient, avoid emotional trading, and prioritize minimizing risk exposure. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5203-5209 zone remains crucial for sustaining bullish momentum. Holding above this level would indicate a continuation of the breakout, targeting 5246, then 5268-72. Ultra Bullish Scenario (Unlikely): A parabolic move overnight pushing through 5246 would be required for a continuation without a proper dip. Monitor overnight basing above 5228 and below 5246 for clues about strength. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5203 would signal a potential pullback and retest of lower supports. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5228 or 5203 for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 10th, 2024 Global Stock Market Trends: U.S. Market Performance: Modest gains seen in U.S. stock indices, reflecting optimism despite mixed April performance. European and Asian Market Dynamics: Positive movements noted in European and Asian markets, driven by solid economic data and central bank easing. Impact of Economic Indicators: U.S. labor market easing influences market expectations regarding potential rate cuts. Sector-Specific Movements: Technology sector experiences volatility, while energy sector sees potential stabilization. Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook: Cautious optimism prevails amid anticipation of rate cuts and easing inflation, alongside geopolitical risks and trade negotiations. Assessment of Inflation and Interest Rate Policies: Global Inflation Trends: Persistent inflationary pressures challenge central banks' efforts to meet targets. Central Banks' Stance: Cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments observed globally. Economic Implications: High interest rates may slow down consumer spending and business investments. Inflation Expectations and Future Policies: Central banks closely monitor inflation expectations to inform future policy decisions. Impact on Global Economic Stability: Corporate Financial Developments and Deals: Companies announce financial results and engage in strategic transactions, reflecting market dynamics and regulatory changes. Forward-Looking Corporate Statements: Companies adjust strategies to navigate current market conditions and regulatory environments effectively.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
COFFEE - Futures - 4/1/2024This Trade was taken as net positions hit the highest amount this year at 16/4/2024 we had the highest positions in a 26 week period at -78,835 net positions, this was followed by a price action signal for a short trade. please know at this current time, We had a very dry season in Brazil and in vietnam which caused a massive price spike through out all year. The COT report shows us the net positioning being the highest as well as commercials are loading up on the sell side of the market.
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEEShort
by insanemalin
Trading Plan for Thursday, May 9th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, May 9th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but with increasing uncertainty as the market enters a consolidation phase. Expect choppy trading within a defined range. Prioritize patience and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5203, 5194 (major) Major Supports: 5177 (major), 5155 (major), 5131-36 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5213 (major), 5219 (major), 5229-33 (major) Major Resistances: 5246 (major), 5263-66 (major) Trading Strategy Consolidation Mode: Recognize that the market has shifted from a strong trending environment to a choppy consolidation phase. Adapt your trading strategy accordingly, focusing on small gains and disciplined risk management. Long Opportunities: Focus on failed breakdowns at 5203 or 5194 for long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying the retests of the 5177, 5155, and 5131-36 breakout zone or knife-catches for quick scalps. Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the inherent risk of shorting against strength in a bull market, avoid aggressive short positions. Monitor back-tests of 5229-33 or 5263-66 for potential short entries, targeting level-to-level profits. Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels with strict discipline. Let price action develop, be patient, and avoid emotional trading. Overtrading within a tight range can lead to losses. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5194 level and ideally the 5131-36 breakout zone remains crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. Holding above the lower range boundary would indicate a healthy consolidation and base for potential continuation higher. Base Building and Rebound: A period of consolidation within the 5194-5219 range followed by a rebound off the lower zone would set the stage for further advances, targeting 5229-33, 5246, then 5263-66. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5194, more significantly below 5177 would signal a deeper pullback and a potential retest of the 5131-36 breakout zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 9th, 2024 Global Stock Market Trends: Varied Performance: Mixed responses observed in Asian markets; Wall Street experiences second consecutive day of lull. Influence of Geopolitical Events: Ongoing geopolitical tensions impact investor confidence and market stability. Recovery Post-COVID-19: Economic recovery contributes to increased positive correlation among global stock markets. Technological Advancements and Stock Market Analysis: Complex Network Analysis: Studies highlight increased interconnectedness among global stock markets. Geopolitical Impact: Geopolitical unrest continues to pose risks, affecting capital flows and commodity markets. Future Outlook: Predicted trends focus on sustained recovery and nuanced understanding of market interdependencies. Overview of International Trade and Currency Fluctuations: Currency Fluctuation Dynamics: Currency values influence international trade competitiveness and economic policies. Role of Economic Indicators: Inflation rates, interest rates, and GDP growth significantly affect currency valuation. Risk Management Strategies: Businesses employ hedging strategies to mitigate currency fluctuation risks. Government Policies: Monetary and fiscal policies play crucial roles in stabilizing currency values. Impact of Central Banks' Policies on Global Economy: Economic Stabilization: Central banks manipulate monetary policies to address economic fluctuations and crises. Influence on Inflation and Interest Rates: Adjustments in interest rates affect global economic conditions. Effects on Financial Markets: Central bank policies directly impact asset prices and investment flows. Response to Economic Shocks: Central banks provide monetary lifelines during economic crises to stabilize financial systems.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Fed keeps interest rates, GOLD increases but limitedAfter the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the sixth time and announced it would slow down the pace of balance sheet shrinkage, gold prices rose sharply above the $2,300/ounce mark and remained above this key price level. , and also achieved the target adjusted increase in publishing the previous issue sent to you. Market news and reviews The Federal Reserve is determined to achieve its 2% inflation target and kept interest rates unchanged for the sixth time in Wednesday's trading session. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a news conference that cutting interest rates until they are confident that inflation is moving toward the 2% target is inappropriate, adding that this year's inflation data “does not give us greater confidence.” They will decide monetary policy “meeting by meeting,” adding that slowing the pace of balance sheet contraction “will ensure a smooth transition in currency markets.” Powell added that the Fed believes monetary policy will be restrictive enough to contain inflation and ignored the possibility of raising interest rates when he made the call. The Federal Reserve has chosen to maintain the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%. In their statement, they noted that the risks associated with achieving the Fed's dual mandate of focusing on employment and inflation have become more balanced over the past year. While acknowledging progress on inflation, they also acknowledged that recent data suggests progress has stalled. The prospect of interest rates remaining fundamentally high is bad news for gold because it increases the opportunity cost of investing in gold. However, the following news is considered the FOMC's mark when Powell said that the next step is unlikely to be raising interest rates, which also makes this press conference much less hawkish than market expectations, at least Most interest rate increases are not considered. This statement caused the Dollar to plummet and stimulated gold prices to skyrocket. Additionally, Federal Reserve policymakers announced major changes to their balance sheet policy. Starting in June, they reduced their monthly holdings of U.S. Treasuries from $60 billion to $25 billion, marking a change in their approach to balance sheet normalization. Macro data ADP Jobs Change reported an increase of 192,000 jobs in April, beating estimates of 175,000 but still falling short of March's upwardly revised figure of 208,000. Additionally, JOLTS job openings fell to 8.488 million in March, the lowest level of job openings in the report, down from 8.813 million. US economic data continues to be mixed. Last week, gross domestic product (GDP) did not meet expectations. However, inflation data tied to the first quarter of 2024 is sounding the alarm that price trends are on the rise, which could prevent the Fed from easing policy sooner than expected. On May 3, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to release nonfarm payrolls data for April, which is expected to be 243,000, down from 303,000 in March. Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 3.8%, while average hourly earnings are likely to remain unchanged at 0.3% month-over-month. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold received support from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level highlighted by readers in the previous issue, it rose to reach its target recovery level of around $2,322, along with With that, it is also limited by the technical level of 2,322 USD and maintaining price activity below EMA21. The current price position still does not bring many positive technical prospects as gold is still in a short-term falling price channel and under main pressure from EMA21, more consistent with a short-term bearish outlook. Overall, recovery expectations are complete and over, then in terms of the technical picture, gold has more chances to fall than to rise. As long as gold remains below the EMA21, it will remain under pressure in the short term, with price activity returning below the $2,322 level opening the way for gold prices to fall back to the 0.236% Fibonacci level. For gold prices to increase more, it is important for it to break above EMA21, then the target level is around 2,365 USD in the short term. During the day, gold's technical outlook leans bearish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,322 – 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2343 - 2341 ⚰️SL: 2347 ⬆️TP1: 2336 ⬆️TP2: 2331 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2259 - 2261 ⚰️SL: 2255 ⬆️TP1: 2266 ⬆️TP2: 2271
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Looking ahead to NFP, GOLD's technical structure remains stableOANDA:XAUUSD is still trying to operate above its $2,300 base price after Thursday's wild swings, with the market focusing particularly on non-farm payrolls data to be released on this trading day. ADP jobs data exceeded expectations in April and March data was revised upward, suggesting the US labor market remains strong and stable. The US ADP jobs report released on Wednesday showed that US ADP employment increased by 192,000 in April, above expectations of 180,000. The value before March was revised up from 184,000 to 208,000. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that 208,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 27, compared with expectations of 212,000 and a previous figure of 207,000. The gold market's focus has shifted to Friday's nonfarm payrolls data, which will provide the latest data for the market to further assess the state of the US labor market and the outlook for employment. monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Surveys show the U.S. nonfarm working population is expected to increase by 243,000 in April after seasonal adjustments, compared with a gain of 303,000 in March. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8% in April. Investors will also be watching data on wages and workforce participation. The survey found that average hourly wages in the United States in April are expected to increase 0.3% monthly and 4.0% annually. The US labor force participation rate in April is expected to be unchanged at 62.7%. If Nonfarm Payrolls data is weaker than expected, or just as weak, this should be seen as a positive for gold prices as it will resonate with the Fed's less hawkish stance during the meeting. The recent FOMC made the US Dollar less attractive and boosted precious metals. On the gold price technical chart, after gold reached the technical level of 2,322 USD, it was under pressure to fall again but the temporary decline is also limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point. In terms of technical structure, not much has changed compared to yesterday's issue, so readers can check back here. Notable prices are also listed as follows. Support: 2,284USD Resistance: 2,322 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2321 - 2319 ⚰️SL: 2325 ⬆️TP1: 2314 ⬆️TP2: 2309 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2259 - 2261 ⚰️SL: 2255 ⬆️TP1: 2266 ⬆️TP2: 2271
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 8th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 8th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but increasingly cautious in the overbought market. Consolidation is ongoing, and a deeper pullback is likely before further advances. Maintain disciplined risk management. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5209 (major), 5202, 5188-91 (major) Major Supports: 5143-36 (major), 5067-69 (major), Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5224 (major), 5246 (major), 5265-70 (major) Major Resistances: 5302-06 (major), 5328-30 (major) Trading Strategy Post-Breakout Dip Anticipated: The market is overdue for a healthy pullback after the recent strong surge. Long Opportunities: Focus on failed breakdowns at 5202 or 5188-91 for long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying the retest of the breakout zone at 5143-36 or knife-catches at 5168 for quick scalps. Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5246 or 5265-70 for short entries, targeting level-to-level profits. Proceed with extreme caution and be ready to cut losses quickly. Remember, shorting against strength in a bull market is inherently risky. Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously. Let price action develop, be patient, and avoid emotional trading. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5143-36 breakout zone remains crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. Holding above this level would indicate a healthy dip and a potential continuation higher. Rebase and Bounce: A period of consolidation around 5190-5224 and a rebound off these supports would set the stage for further advances, potentially targeting 5246, then 5265-70. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5188-91 would signal a potential pullback and could lead to a retest of the 5143-36 breakout zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 8th, 2024 Global Stock Market Trends: Varied Performance: Asian markets show resilience despite Nikkei 225 drop, influenced by mixed corporate news. U.S. Economic Indicators: U.S. jobs report and Fed's interest rate decisions continue to influence global markets positively. Geopolitical Tensions: Market responses to geopolitical unrest remain muted, highlighting diversified global economies' resilience. Company Earnings and Forecasts: Earnings Performance: Uber reports Q1 loss; Thomson Reuters shows strong revenue growth. Financial Forecasts: Taboola expects significant YoY growth; Thomson Reuters adjusts full-year outlook. Sector-Specific Insights: Technology and financial services sectors demonstrate strong growth potential despite operational losses. Analysts' Perspectives: Setting Market Expectations: Analysts forecast earnings based on economic indicators, trends, and company guidance. Implications for Investors: Earnings reports influence market sentiment and investor confidence, impacting stock prices. Impact on Currency Values: Political Events: Geopolitical tensions historically impact currency fluctuations, yet recent responses remain subdued, reflecting diversified global markets' resilience.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro