Get started

Futures

Fib level 2.618%, GOLD is under pressure before the FOMC meetingOANDA:XAUUSD spot faced strong selling pressure and fell to a one-week low ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell for the third straight month in April, falling to 97.0 from a downwardly revised 103.1 in March. Pessimism prevails ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged amid lingering signs of inflationary pressures. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates higher for longer and send a hawkish message. Gold investors' attention turns to FOMC and Nonfarm Payrolls The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep policy rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is about a 91.6% chance that the Fed will choose to leave policy unchanged again in June. On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April jobs report. A sharp decline in nonfarm payrolls (NFP) growth could cause an immediate dollar sell-off . Even if the data doesn't have a very profound impact on expectations for a rate cut in June, it could still weigh on the dollar if investors favor a policy change in September. The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are pricing in a 53.3% chance that the Fed's policy rate will be unchanged in September. On the other hand, nonfarm payrolls data is stronger than expected, especially if it goes coupled with higher wage inflation data, could increase expectations that the Fed will take no action in September and cause gold prices to fall sharply this weekend. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold fell sharply in yesterday's trading session after breaking the $2,322 level and now this technical level becomes the closest current resistance. Along with that, gold is also stopping its decline when approaching the 2.618% Fibonacci extension level, and this is also the current closest support level. If gold continues to sell off breaking below the 2.618% Fibonacci extension it will likely experience further selling pressure with no chance of a recovery towards the upper channel edge and beyond the 3.618 Fibonacci level. %. Therefore, for protection levels open long positions should be installed behind the 2.618% Fibonacci extension level. On the other hand, the fact that gold still holds above the Fibonacci retracement level still "raises hope" for those who opened long positions to see a recovery to retest the level of 2,322 USD. However, currently, in the short term, gold does not have enough conditions to increase in price as price activity is in a short-term downtrend from the price channel and price activity is below EMA21. During the day, the technical outlook of gold price is noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,284USD Resistance: 2,300 – 2,322USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2326 - 2324 ⚰️SL: 2330 ⬆️TP1: 2319 ⬆️TP2: 2314 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2259 - 2261 ⚰️SL: 2255 ⬆️TP1: 2266 ⬆️TP2: 2271
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 7th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 7th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but increasingly cautious following a strong breakout. The RSI is deeply overbought, increasing the risk of sudden pullbacks. Proceed with heightened awareness of volatility. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5186-88 (major), 5163 (major) Major Supports: 5144-46 (major), 5060-65 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5214-5218 (major), 5246-50 (major) Major Resistances: 5272 (major), 5302-04 (major) Trading Strategy Post-Breakout Cautiousness: The market is in overbought territory following today's strong surge. Prioritize capital preservation and maintain disciplined risk management. Avoid chasing longs or aggressively shorting against strength. Long Opportunities: Due to the overbought conditions, focus on failed breakdowns at 5186-88 or ideally 5144-46 for long entries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at 5163 for quick scalps. Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5214-5218, 5246-50, or potentially 5272 for short entries, targeting level-to-level profits. Proceed with extreme caution and be ready to cut losses quickly. Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously. Let price action develop, be patient, and avoid emotional trading. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5144-46 breakout zone remains crucial for bulls. Holding above this level would indicate a healthy dip and a potential continuation higher. Consolidation and Bounce: A period of consolidation and a rebound off 5186-88 or 5144-46 would set the stage for further advances, potentially targeting 5214-18, then 5246-50. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5186-88 would signal a potential pullback and could lead to a retest of the 5144-46 breakout zone. A breach of 5144-46 would be a more significant bearish development. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 7th, 2024 Federal Reserve's Influence: Interest Rate Decision: Fed keeps rates steady at 5.25% to 5.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting, reflecting concerns about inflation and labor market conditions. April 2024 Jobs Report: Economy adds 175,000 jobs in April, below expectations, potentially alleviating inflation pressures. Commercial Real Estate Midyear Outlook: Despite high-interest rates, commercial real estate sectors show resilience, suggesting less sensitivity to monetary policy. Global Economic Growth Forecasts: World Bank and OECD predict below-average global GDP growth for 2024, influencing market sentiments and central bank policies. Impact on Market Dynamics: Bond and Equity Markets: Higher rates increase Treasury yields, shifting investor preference towards bonds and contributing to equity market volatility. Housing Market Effects: Housing prices respond swiftly to policy adjustments, driven by changes in mortgage rates, impacting affordability and market health. Influence on International Trade: Stronger dollar affects trade balance by making exports costlier and imports cheaper, potentially moderating domestic inflation. Future Outlook: Market sentiment remains cautious, with analysts not expecting rate cuts until at least 2025 if inflation persists, influencing investment and consumer behaviors.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, BITCOIN, CRUDE OIL, EURGBP Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ #EURUSD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EURUSD is trading in a bearish trend on a daily. The price is falling steadily within a falling wedge pattern. With a recent correctional movement, the price reached the resistance of the range. A trend-following movement may initiate soon. Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the resistance of the wedge will trigger a trend reversal. 2️⃣ #BITCOIN daily time frame ₿ After a very bullish movement on Friday, the market violated a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern on a daily. It is the important sign of strength of the buyers. Looks like the market may keep growing. 3️⃣ #WTI CRUDE OIL 🛢️ As I predicted, Crude Oil keeps falling. The price is very close to 2 significant demand clusters. Probabilities will be high to see a pullback from one of these structures. 4️⃣ #EURGBP daily time frame 🇪🇺🇬🇧 The price nicely respected a key daily horizontal demand zone and bounced from that. With a clear strength of the buyers the pair may keep growing easily. Do you agree with my market breakdown? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
BTC/USD Long Signal: It's NOT over yet! Bullish Flag PatternWe're spotlighting a LONG opportunity for BTCUSD (Spot & Futures) Trading Signal Entries: 63.5k (Market Orders), 67k (Conditional Limit Orders) Stop Loss: 57.9k to safeguard your trade (Limit Sell) Profit Targets Target 1: 82k, adjust to breakeven Target 2: 89k Target 3: 102k Helpful Tips Save Money: Use limit orders instead of market orders for lower fees. Stick To Your Plan: This is key for making progressive gains! Control Your Risk: Your stop-loss order protects you against unforseen market reversals. We aim to provide high-quality signals that guide you to success. Happy trading! Please make sure to Boost this idea & follow this account if you want to see more of this content. We appreciate it!
Long
by Swiss_Signals
EURUSD rises after US PMI shockEURO ( OANDA:EURUSD ) ANALYSIS - Flash PMI data provides unflattering US outlook, Europe improves - EURUSD rises after US PMI shock FLASH PMI DATA PROVIDES UNFLATTERING US OUTLOOK, EUROPE IMPROVES German and EU manufacturing remains depressed but encouraging rises in flash services PMI results suggest improvement in Europe. UK manufacturing slumped well into contraction but also benefitted from another rise on the services front. It was the US that provided the most surprising numbers, witnessing a decline in services PMI and a drop into contractionary territory for manufacturing – weighing on the dollar. OANDA:EURUSD RISES AFTER US PMI SHOCK EURUSD reacted to lackluster flash PMI data in the US by covering recent losses. The euro attempted to break above the 1.0700 level after recovering from the oversold zone around the 1.0600 low. The pair has maintained a longer-term downtrend reflecting the different monetary policy stances adopted by the ECB and the Fed. A strong labor market, robust growth and rising inflation have forced the Fed to delay plans to cut interest rates, which has strengthened the dollar against G7 currencies. Surprising US PMI data suggests the economy may not be as strong as initially predicted and some weakness could emerge. However, it will take more than one quick data point to reverse the story. If the bulls take control from here, 1.07645 becomes the next interesting upside level, followed by 1.0800 where the 200 SMA lies. On the other hand, 1.06437 and 1.0600 remain support levels. Interesting support if the long-term trend continues.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD bounced back on MondayAfter a subdued performance late last week, the EUR/USD bounced back on Monday, challenging overhead resistance at 1.0725. A successful clearance of this technical barrier could pave the way for a move towards 1.0755. Further strength from this point onwards would shift focus to the 1.0800 handle, where the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages converge. In the event of a market retracement, support is expected near the psychological level of 1.0700, followed by April’s swing lows around 1.0600. Prices are likely to establish a base in this region during a pullback ahead of a possible turnaround. However, if a breakdown occurs, the possibility of a rebound diminishes, as this move could lead to a drop towards the 2023 trough at 1.0450.
by Xayah_trading
2
Trading Plan for Monday, May 6th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 6th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls seeking further confirmation after exceeding a major resistance level on Friday. Consolidation and complex, level-to-level price action are likely. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5145-50 (major), 5136, 5116-13 (major) Major Supports: 5082-77 (major), 5067 (major), 5060 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5176-86 (major), 5213 (major) Major Resistances: 5245 (major), 5272 (major), 5302-05 (major) Trading Strategy Consolidation Anticipated: Expect a period of price discovery and complex, potentially choppy price action following Friday's strong breakout. Prioritize level-to-level trading. Long Opportunities: Due to the heightened risk, avoid chasing direct bids at support. Look for failed breakdowns of 5136 (ideally with a reclaim) or 5116 for potential long entries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at major supports (5082, 5067). Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5213, or potentially 5176-86 (riskier) for short entries. Proceed with caution and be quick to take profits. Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel increases volatility and requires a disciplined approach. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5113-16 breakout zone remains crucial, with 5060 as the broader support floor. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5150 and potentially establish a base around that level for further confirmation. Breakouts above 5176-86, and ultimately 5213 would provide further bullish signals. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5113-16 would signal a failure of Friday's breakout, inviting a deeper retracement. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns around 5136 and 5116 for potential short entries. A breach of 5060 would be a significant bearish development. News: Top Stories for May 6th, 2024 Impact on Stock Markets: Immediate Market Reactions: Markets react swiftly to news events, with geopolitical tensions often inducing volatility. Economic Indicators Influence: Market sentiment is shaped by economic indicators like employment rates and inflation reports. Central Bank Announcements: Decisions by major central banks, such as interest rate changes, heavily influence global markets. Corporate Earnings Reports: Quarterly earnings reports impact stock prices and market indices. Geopolitical Events: Events like elections and conflicts can increase market uncertainty and volatility globally. Economic Policy Changes: Shifts in Industrial Policies: Increase in protectionist measures raises concerns about global growth. US and EU Policies on China: Alignment in economic security policies aims to reduce dependency on Chinese goods. Global Trade System Reconfiguration: WTO conference could reshape trade policies and impact global GDP. Regulatory Changes in Digital Trade: US withdrawal from digital trade agreements affects multinational corporations and data management. Environmental Regulations: International trade agreements mandate sustainability measures, transforming global operations.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
NAS100-Weekly Setup/ideaAfter an ugly couple of weeks, the NQ has been able to recover flawlessly above all support levels, and is looking poised to continue higher here. If the Nasdaq can continue to hold onto 17000 in the future, expect a test of 18080-18200 in the near future. Anything above 18500 would open the door to higher targets at 18650/19000/19200/19550 and higher. If the NQ cannot hold onto 17000 this week, expect a move lower to test supports at 16500-15600/15250. Anything under 15250 and targets would be 15000/14750/14500/14250-14000 in the future.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by ghost_marketsavage
Eyes on Fed, GOLD in narrow range with bearish conditionsMarket attention turns to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on May 1 and upcoming nonfarm payrolls data. Data released last week showed US gross domestic product fell short of target, while the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, stagnated at growth of 2.8% year-on-year for the second consecutive month. Key data due for release this week include European inflation and US labor market indicators, while the Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a two-day meeting on Tuesday and Friday. is expected to keep the basic interest rate unchanged but with a hawkish tone. The last time Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke, he said policymakers would likely keep borrowing costs high for longer than previously expected, citing a lack of progress in inflation falls and the labor market continues to be strong. Despite the Fed's postponement of interest rate cuts, gold prices are still up more than 13% this year and reached a record high earlier this month. The rise in precious metals prices over the past two months has been linked to central bank buying, strong demand in Asian markets, especially China, and rising geopolitical tensions from Ukraine to the Middle East. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD The current gold price range is still quite narrow and has not changed much compared to what was published in the weekly issue published on Sunday. Technical conditions remain bullish in the short term with the closest support coming from the EMA21 level and the $2,322 technical point followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. A more negative case for gold prices can only be clearly seen when it sells off below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, at which point the target level could reach the upper edge of the price channel and beyond the 0.382 Fibonacci level. % in short term. So, for open buy positions should be protected behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level. On the other hand, gold holding above the EMA21 level will be a necessary condition to continue aiming for the short-term targets of 2,345 USD and more to the level of 2,365 USD. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is bearish with the following notable technical levels. Support: 2,315 - 2,284USD Resistance: 2,345 - 2,365USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2361 - 2359 ⚰️SL: 2365 ⬆️TP1: 2354 ⬆️TP2: 2349 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2304 - 2306 ⚰️SL: 2300 ⬆️TP1: 2311 ⬆️TP2: 2316
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
📈Insightful Analysis: ALGO Coin's Potential Moves🔥🔍Let's dive into today's market analysis. Compared to yesterday, the market hasn't made any significant moves, prompting us to zoom in on the daily timeframe for a broader perspective. Today, our focus is on ALGO coin, presenting intriguing opportunities for both short and long positions. Let's dissect the price action to identify optimal entry points for futures and spot positions. 💎First and foremost, let's analyze the candlesticks. Candlesticks serve as the primary market data, providing invaluable insights into market behavior. While indicators such as RSI offer secondary derivations, they serve as confirmatory tools rather than primary signals for entry. Hence, our strategy hinges on understanding and interpreting candlestick patterns to gauge market sentiment effectively. 📈ALGO coin embarked on its bullish journey since September 2023, displaying sharp and oscillating upward movements, eventually reaching the resistance at $0.3196. Along this trajectory, it established robust support at $0.1591, acting as a pivotal level amid market corrections. The resilience of such key supports signifies market strength, yet a breach serves as a potent confirmation of trend reversal, albeit a challenging feat due to strong buy-side pressure. 📉Now, onto strategy. For short positions, a break below the central RSI line at 50, coupled with a significant candle confirmation, presents an opportune entry point. Setting stop-loss below $0.1591 ensures prudent risk management, while potential targets include $0.1305 and $0.1055, reflecting downside potentials. Conversely, for long positions, a break above $0.2113 serves as a trigger, with subsequent targets at $0.3196 and beyond, provided strong candle confirmation. 🛒As for spot positions, holders may consider liquidating upon daily candle closure below $0.1591, ensuring capital preservation. Alternatively, reducing exposure to initial investment while retaining potential upside allows for flexibility amid market uncertainties. For those seeking entry, a break below the ascending trendline, followed by a confirming candle, provides a compelling opportunity, with $0.1591 as a viable stop-loss level. 📝In conclusion, ALGO coin presents intriguing prospects for both short and long positions, contingent upon meticulous risk management and strategic entry execution. The market awaits, ripe with opportunities for those who dare to seize them. 🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
by itsparham96
GOLD stabilizes above EMA21 supportOANDA:XAUUSD market could see more volatility next week on news from the Federal Reserve and is expected to signal that it will not be ready to cut interest rates in June. Although expectations of loosening policy by the US Federal Reserve are fading, gold prices have also increased about 17% since February this year. Gold's strong performance is linked to central bank buying, and volatile geopolitical tensions. New inflation data reinforces the view that high interest rates are here to stay for now. The Fed's preferred gauge of core inflation, U.S. PCE data rose 0.3% in March and rose 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month. Figures from the beginning of this year were also adjusted slightly upward. Worrying inflation data for three straight months suggests progress towards the central bank's 2% target has stalled and suggests the first round of interest rate cuts will continue to be delayed. Investors are expecting one or two rate cuts this year starting in November, but concerns are growing that the Fed may not reduce borrowing costs by 2024. Fed policy decisions and US nonfarm data will be the macro focus next week Next Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its April jobs report. If U.S. nonfarm payroll growth slows significantly to below 200,000, that could trigger a sell off the US Dollar and cause an immediate positive reaction to gold prices. If nonfarm payroll growth is stronger than expected, especially if wage inflation data is hot, that could increase market expectations that the Fed will not act in September and put gold on the back foot. under pressure to reduce prices. Even if the data does not have a significant impact on expectations for a June rate cut, it could still weigh on the dollar if investors favor a policy change in September. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that the market expects the probability of the Fed keeping policy rates unchanged in September to be 42.6%. Investors should also pay attention to other data including US ADP and the Fed's Monetary Policy Decision due on Wednesday, and Jobless Claims on Thursday. Economic data to watch next week Tuesday: US consumer confidence index Wednesday: ADP nonfarm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, JOLTS vacancies, Fed monetary policy decision Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (NDP), ISM Services PMI, US April Unemployment Rate Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered after a period of sudden correction, taking support from the EMA21 level and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. Note to readers in last week's weekly issue and currently gold is also active at The position is quite positive, above the EMA21 and above the technical level of 2,322USD. Maintaining activity above the EMA21 level opens up the possibility of gold continuing to recover with last week's target at $2,365 still not achieved. Currently, the gold price still has all the technical conditions for a possible increase in price with main support at EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. However, gold will also face the possibility of further declines once it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, the downside target level could then reach the upper edge of the price channel, more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, if long, open long positions should be protected behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level. Gold has a technical outlook that favors the possibility of an increase in gold prices. The technical levels will be noted and listed as follows. Support: 2,322 – 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,345 – 2,365USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2361 - 2359 ⚰️SL: 2365 ⬆️TP1: 2354 ⬆️TP2: 2349 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2304 - 2306 ⚰️SL: 2300 ⬆️TP1: 2311 ⬆️TP2: 2316
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Friday, May 3rd, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 3rd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bulls maintaining a tentative lead ahead of multiple high-impact market events (Apple Earnings and Jobs Report). Expect extreme volatility and plan accordingly. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5068 (major), 5054 (major trendline - note this level rises daily) Major Supports: 5028 (major), 5001 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5081 (major), 5102 (major), 5116 (major), 5136 (major) Major Resistances: 5155-58 (major), 5191 (major), 5208 (major) Trading Strategy Earnings and Jobs Volatility: Be prepared for unpredictable, potentially violent price swings triggered by the Apple earnings release (4:30 PM EST) and the jobs report (8:30 AM EST). Prioritize reacting to price action over anticipating. Capital Preservation: Adopt a cautious approach and consider reducing position sizes or even sitting out the immediate volatility. Focus on protecting your gains from today's squeeze. Long Opportunities: Due to the heightened risk, avoid direct bids at support. Prioritize failed breakdowns with flushes and reclaims for safer long entries. In the event of a deep flush, consider knife-catches at major supports (5028, 5001). Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5116 and 5136 for shorts, but only if markets exhibit a strong negative reaction to earnings or positive jobs data. Proceed with extreme caution. Focus on Levels: Use the provided support and resistance levels to guide your decisions, regardless of the volatility. Pay close attention to failed breakdowns and setups, as they will be the most reliable in this environment. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5054-50 support zone remains crucial. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5081 resistance zone after any potential sell-off on events, working back towards 5116, then 5136 for further confirmation and a potential sustained breakout. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5054-50 initiates the downside move. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns for potential short entries. Be mindful of whipsaws and traps around major events. News: Top Stories for May 3rd, 2024 Impact of Monetary Policies: U.S. Monetary Policy and Global Markets: Contractionary policy affects global financial conditions through various channels. Responses to U.S. Policy Shifts: Tightening policy induces global deleveraging and affects asset prices and credit flows. Emerging Markets' Sensitivity: EMs experience volatility and capital outflows due to U.S. policy changes. Transmission Mechanisms: Policy changes influence dollar-denominated assets, global credit conditions, and bank behavior. Long-Term Implications: Global Trade Outlook: Modest rebound in 2024 challenged by interest rates, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions. Manufacturing Sector Performance: Continued uncertainty with challenges like labor shortages and supply chain disruptions. Advances in Digital Manufacturing: Adoption of digital twins and smart tech enhances operational efficiencies. Geopolitical Impact on Trade: Persistent tensions disrupt global trade, highlighting vulnerability of supply chains to political instability.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Thursday, May 2nd, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, May 2nd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls holding a precarious position at a critical support level. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5048-50 (major - note that this trendline rises daily), 5032, 5028 (major) Major Supports: 5010 (major), 4968 (major), 4938-42 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5077-82 (major), 5102 (major), 5126 (major), 5136 (major) Major Resistances: 5155 (major), 5197-5202 (major), 5246-50 (major) Trading Strategy Critical Support Test: Vigilantly monitor the critical 5048-50 support zone for signs of breakdown or sustained defense. Long Opportunities: Due to heightened volatility, avoid direct bids at support. Instead, prioritize failed breakdowns with flushes and reclaims for safer long entries, potentially around 5032 or 5028. In the event of a deep flush, consider knife-catches at major supports (5010, 4968, 4938-42). Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5126 and 5136 for shorts, but only if a strong bearish reaction to FOMC is evident. Proceed with caution. Risk Management: Maintain disciplined risk management and tighter stops in this volatile period. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5048-50 support zone is crucial. A failed breakdown with a quick reclaim above 5032-28 could trigger a move higher. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push back to 5077-82, with a potential retest of that resistance, then onward to the 5126-36 zone for further confirmation and potential breakout. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5048-50 followed by a deeper dip through 5028 initiates the downside move. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 2nd, 2024 Analysis of Stock Market Trends: U.S. Market Performance: Mixed responses post-Fed's rate decision, with slight Dow increase and S&P, Nasdaq declines. Interest Rates and Inflation Concerns: Persistent inflation shapes Fed policies, influencing market dynamics. Sector-Specific Trends: Tech sector drives market, but faces valuation challenges and regulatory scrutiny. Global Market Influences: European markets resilient; contrasting approaches to interest rates and inflation with the U.S. Investment Strategies: Federal Funds Rate Stability: Fed maintains high rate amid inflation concerns, impacting market expectations. Inflation Trends and Policy: Slow decrease in inflation complicates rate cuts, influencing investment decisions. Global Impact: Fed's policies affect global markets, especially in emerging economies and those tied to U.S. standards. Long-term Considerations: Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts threaten global supplies; Middle East escalation could disrupt oil production. Economic Slowdown: China's slowdown poses risks globally, impacting markets and economic stability. Inflation and Interest Rates: Central banks balance inflation control without hindering growth, posing risks. Technological Transformations: Rapid tech changes create opportunities and risks, transforming labor markets. Environmental Risks: Growing environmental concerns pose economic consequences, impacting industries.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 4.28 - 5.03Last Week : Last week Globex opened inside the Value of 5086 - 4925 Range and right away found buying that started pushing us towards VAH. RTH gave us a push out of Value and holds above brought in more buyers to give us pushes to the Edge and attempts at Previous Ranges VAL/Value area but that move was sold back down towards the Edge and back under 5086 brought in the weakness needed to make a push back inside lower range towards VAH which looked promising for continuation since we were under Supply and under Settlement ranges but instead we failed to accept in Value pushed back to the Edge and end of day Spike pushed us over VAL where we spent Friday filling out that area of singles over VAL in a tighter distribution Range after failing to get back under 5112.05 - 07.50. This Week : Going into this week we have retail month end to finish up the month, we have new month starting and lots of data dropping this week as well. Our question this week is will we find acceptance back in this 5227 - 5066 Ranges Value ? are there actually bigger buyers in that Spike base to keep us up and start balancing here and continue filling out this VAL / Mean / VAH area ? Area over 5144 still has Single Prints above which are Supply and Volume trapped above them. Or maybe more selling will come in to give moves back under VAL to fill out that Spike Base to see if there are still buyers in that Edge or if we will start working our way under it towards the Value where we were able to transact through the whole thing and put in Time and Volume ? Friday we tried to make a push over 5144 - 40.25 which was 5159 - 5107 Intrarange Resistance but failed the few attempts and stayed withing the ranges Mean of 5144 - 5125. If we are to accept in this range and 5112.50 - 07.50 will keep acting as support then we can look to keep trading this current Intraday range of 5159 - 5107 and IF we continue holding over 5129 - 25 we could eventually get enough buying to try and fill out those single prints up to the Key Resistance. We would need to get through 5159.25 - 54.25 to see any higher prices with moves towards above VAH. If the buying here is not strong and we just continue building up Supply around this current mean and can't fill the single prints up to the Key Resistance above or fill but fail to accept over then we can look for a return back towards the VAL and see a test of that 5112.50 - 07.50 area, if buying at that Spike base doesn't hold then we can see a move back towards the Edge to fill that Spike Base out and test the Edge again to see if there is still buying or if we will get back under the Edge and head for Previous Value. With lots of news and data it could be a tricky week, Friday ended very slow after volatile action, will the slow theme continue this week ? If so need to be very patient letting things properly set up and show Failures or strength at levels before trying to catch the moves. Market is trying to find a range to start balancing in, I feel like 5086 - 4925 is the HTF Range market wants to be in and our destination is still lower but how fast or slow it will get moving there is the question and for now we are over the Edge which is telling us otherwise while we are inside 5182 - 15 Value... but just something to keep in mind if we don't find acceptance needed in here. Levels to Watch : Current Range 5159.25 - 5107.50 Key Levels for Continuation out 5159.25 - 54.25 // 5112.50 - 07.50 Means 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25 If Accept Below Targets Spike Base and move back to Edge Means 5095.50 - 92.50 // 5081 - 77.75 Key Area 5065.75 - 60.75 If holds current range and accepts over Key Resistance, above range is 5204.25 - 5154.25 Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75 IF Find ourself back under 5086 - 66 Edge watch out for continuation towards VAH / Mean and VAL of 5086 - 4925 Range.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
GDP and PCE will be two important data for GOLD price trendsThe US Dollar Index is entering accumulation and recovering after 2 days of decline, making gold priced in US Dollars less attractive thanks to direct correlation. The near-term appeal of the precious metal remains weak as tensions in the Middle East ease and safe-haven demand weakens. The gold market has been less affected by the escalating conflict in the Middle East as developments have cooled down. What the market is interested in as well as the current trading question is whether this correction in gold prices will create a long-term downtrend, or simply a short-term decline. Directions and clues about the answer keep the market focused on the Fed and economic data. If inflation data continues to show stubborn, hot inflation could push the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. Originally, the interest rate cut time had been pushed back by the market to September, previously expected to be June. This is not beneficial for gold, an asset that does not yield any yield. First-quarter GDP and core inflation will provide additional data on when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates. US gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released on (today) Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report will be released on Friday. US core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to rise at a solid 0.3%, with the annual index falling to 2.6% from 2.8% in the month Two. Gold prices could face a sharp sell-off if core inflation data comes in higher than expected. Currently, traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates starting at its September meeting. Further signs of sustained price pressure will allow the Fed to maintain its stance of keeping interest rates on hold. at current levels over the long term. Theoretically, this scenario bodes well for the US dollar and US bond yields, while reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still struggling to maintain activity above the EMA21 level, and despite the recovery from the 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284 USD support levels presented to readers in previous issues, the The recovery levels were quickly defeated and entered a state of accumulation. Temporarily, the market has not shown any signs of sudden changes to open a new trend structure, while technical conditions are still supporting the possibility of price increases with support from EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.236. % as key support levels. If gold holds above $2,322 it will be a positive and the target level is then aimed at $2,334, more so than $2,365. On the other hand, a further bearish cycle will be unleashed once gold sells off below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, so protection levels for open long positions should be protected below the 0.236% Fibonacci level. %. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains supportive of upside with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,322 – 2,334 – 2,365USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2342 - 2340 ⚰️SL: 2346 ⬆️TP1: 2335 ⬆️TP2: 2330 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2267 - 2269 ⚰️SL: 2263 ⬆️TP1: 2274 ⬆️TP2: 2279
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, GOLD trend conditionsUS GDP data for the first quarter of 2024 was lower than expected, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve may reduce borrowing costs. However, inflation has risen sharply over the same period, which will delay the Fed's interest rate cuts. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, below forecasts. 2.4% growth by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was adjusted from 3.4% to 3.9%. Other data showed that the initial value of the US core PCE price index in the first quarter after seasonal adjustment was 3.7%, the estimate was 3.4% and the previous value was 2 .0%. The geopolitical situation also supports gold prices. The Israel Public Broadcasting Corporation reported on April 25 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved a plan to conduct ground operations in the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. In addition, after a two-week lull, Houthi forces launched attacks on US cargo ships and naval vessels. -According to Zerohedg- For gold, this price gain comes after a nearly 3% drop this week as markets downgraded assessments of rising tensions in the Middle East. Fed officials last week including Chairman Jerome Powell agreed, saying: "Recent data shows no further progress in inflation this year." Currently, as tensions in the Middle East gradually ease, safe-haven demand for gold remains weak in the short term. Looking ahead, the market will focus on March's core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data, which will guide the next move of gold prices. If PCE inflation is higher than expected, it will signal pressure on gold prices and it is possible that gold will continue to sell off, while if PCE inflation continues to shrink, lower will be an important support for gold. with gold prices because it helps the case of the Fed cutting interest rates soon become more open. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to recover from the key support area that readers noticed throughout recent publications with key support from the EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. The 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284 USD support levels produced bullish corrections and currently the price action position is also more positive for gold prices with price activity above EMA21 and the 2,322 USD technical point. However, for gold to continue to rise further it needs to break the $2,334 technical level to operate above this level and then target around $2,365, which is also the target bullish recovery level. weekly attention in weekly issue publication. Gold can only become more negative if it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, the downside could then reach the upper channel edge and more to the 0.382% Fibonacci level, so open long positions should be protection behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level and if this level is broken it means losing ground to buy. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still tilted towards the possibility of price increases with the following technical levels being noticed again. Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,334 – 2,365USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2349 - 2347 ⚰️SL: 2353 ⬆️TP1: 2342 ⬆️TP2: 2337 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 1st, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 1st, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with the potential for sharp swings amplified by the FOMC announcement. Increased caution and focus on capital preservation are paramount. Key Supports Major Supports: 5060 (major), 5043-47 (major), 5030-32 (major), 5000 (major) Additional Supports: 4976 (major), 4938-41 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5066, 5077-82 (major), 5102 (major), 5144 (major) Major Resistances: 5171 (major), 5200 (major), 5246-50 (major) Trading Strategy FOMC Volatility: Expect unpredictable price swings driven by reactions to the FOMC interest rate decision and related news. Prioritize Capital Preservation: Focus on protecting your account rather than chasing aggressive moves. Adapt position sizing and risk management strategies accordingly. Long Opportunities: Due to FOMC, direct bids are high risk. Focus on failed breakdowns for better risk/reward. Potentially long at major support levels after flushes and reclaims (5043-47, 5030-32). Short Opportunities: Due to FOMC, direct shorts are also high risk. Watch for strong bounces and failed breakdowns. Consider shorts at key resistance levels only if the reaction to FOMC is definitively bearish. Proceed with extreme caution. Level-to-Level Trading: Employ level-to-level scalping techniques and profit-taking, navigating this volatile environment with tighter stops. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5043-47 support zone is crucial for bulls, with 5030-32 as the absolute minimum. Reclaiming resistances like 5066 could indicate buyer strength. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5030, intensified by negative FOMC news, signals a downside move. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns for potential shorts. News: Top Stories for May 1st, 2024 Global Economic Outlook Mature economies are stabilizing with a slight growth uptick projected for 2024 and 2025. Emerging economies maintain stability with growth projections at 4.3% for both 2024 and 2025. Regional Trends Asia, including China, anticipates a slowdown, while Latin America expects gradual growth increases. Inflation and Monetary Policies Global inflation is expected to decrease, reflecting central bank rate hikes for price stability and growth support. Geopolitical Impacts Populist policies and recent elections in the US and EU pose financial policy and market stability challenges. Transition to a New Monetary Order impacts interest rates, asset values, and lending environments globally. EU regulatory changes affect financial markets and trading regulations, emphasizing compliance. Digital Transformation Focus on digital assets and CBDCs outside the US signals shifts in financial transactions and regulations. Blockchain technology enhances financial security and transparency, notably in DeFi platforms. AI integration reshapes financial services, optimizing operations and decision-making processes. Digital and open banking experiences exponential growth, fostering fintech innovations and collaborations. RegTech solutions powered by AI help firms manage regulatory obligations efficiently across jurisdictions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro