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#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 300 point range last week and we closed near the middle of it. Bulls buy new lows and bears sell every rip close or above the 4h 20ema. Bear channel is still valid but it’s getting weaker. We have also touched my bull trend line from 2024-09 and market has formed a triangle with a nested bear wedge. No big moves, both sides make money. So either scalp the range or don’t look at this. Update after crypto reserve news spike: Bear channel could still hold and if it does, the move down will be even more violent because of so many new trapped traders. Above 97k the bear channel is dead and we continue sideways inside the previous range 90k - 110k. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 72 bull case: Bulls have to be content with buying new lows and scalping a couple of points. Every rip is sold and they just can’t catch a break. Until they have a daily close above 72 again, there is nothing going for them. Sure they keep new lows shallow and the bear trend is getting weaker but that does not help any bull if they don’t make higher highs again. Very low chance that bulls see this as a very broad bull channel where this leg down was a test of the breakout price 70. If you look at a weekly chart, we are still making higher lows and higher highs. Invalidation is below 67.8. bear case: Bears fear that the bull trend line from September is bigger support and the bear trend is getting weaker. That is likely a reason why we will probably see more sideways movement now and less new lows. Bears are still favored until we have higher highs above 72 again. Shorts below 71 are bad, no matter how you put it. Invalidation is above 72. short term: Neutral. Shorts close or above 71 are fine and longs below 69. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion. current swing trade: None chart update: Updated bear channel.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 03 - March 07]OANDA:XAUUSD this week were under pressure to take profits. After opening this week at 2,934 USD/oz, gold prices rose to 2,956 USD/oz, but then continuously dropped to 2,832 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,858 USD/oz. Thus, gold prices this week dropped sharply after 8 consecutive weeks of increases. The reason why gold prices dropped sharply this week is because the USD continued to increase strongly compared to many other major currencies. Market sentiment changed slightly after the US announced the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) for January 2025. Accordingly, PCE increased by 2.5% over the same period last year, thus down from 2.6% in December 2024 and in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, core PCE, excluding fluctuating food and energy prices, also increased 2.6% year-on-year, but down from 2.9% in December 2024 and in line with forecasts. Notably, in the recent meeting, US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had many disagreements and could not reach any agreement to contribute to an early end to the war between Russia and Ukraine. This is a factor that may increase gold's role as a haven, but it is unlikely to push gold prices up sharply next week, perhaps just a slight recovery before adjusting again. There will be a lot of data released next week, but the US February non-farm payrolls (NFP) report will be of particular interest to investors. According to forecasts, NFP is expected to reach 156,000 jobs, compared to 143,000 jobs in January. If NFP reaches the forecast level, it will not affect the Fed's interest rate policy direction, unless NFP increases far beyond the threshold of 200,000 jobs. Therefore, NFP news is likely to have little impact on gold prices next week. In addition, investors will also pay attention to the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision, which could have an impact on gold prices next week. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again next week, which could partially support the USD, thereby negatively impacting gold prices next week. 🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Next week, the market will focus on jobs data, with the US February non-farm payrolls report released on Friday morning. Other key economic events include the Eurozone FMCG and US ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday, the ADP jobs report and US ISM services PMI on Wednesday, and weekly unemployment data on Thursday. The other big event of the week is the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision on Thursday, with many experts expecting the ECB to make another interest rate cut. 📌Technically, gold prices next week may continue to adjust, with the level of 2,790 USD/oz being an important support level. If next week's gold price stays above this level, it will increase slightly to 2,900 USD/oz. On the contrary, if gold prices fall below 2,790 USD/oz next week, there is a risk of a deeper correction. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,814 – 2,835USD Resistance: 2,900 – 2,868USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2955 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2739 - 2741⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2735
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Feb 24 - Feb 28]OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase for the 8th consecutive week, marking the longest increasing streak in many years. Opening the week at 2,886 USD/oz, gold price peaked at 2,955 USD/oz and closed at 2,936 USD/oz. The main reason is concern about US tariff policy causing economic instability, increasing global gold demand. In addition, many central banks, especially in the BRICS bloc, are also actively buying gold. Gold prices will have more room to rise higher due to the ongoing geopolitical and geo-economic instability, including the Trump administration's tariff policy and the risk of political instability in Europe. Additionally, demand for investing in gold-backed exchange-traded funds is also growing. The US PCE inflation report, released next Friday, may affect gold prices through FED interest rate adjustments. If PCE increases, the FED may delay cutting interest rates, which is detrimental to gold prices. On the contrary, if PCE drops sharply, the gold price could exceed 3,000 USD/oz. SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Tuesday morning will see the February US Consumer Confidence report, followed by January New Home Sales data on Wednesday. On Thursday, markets will receive preliminary reports on US fourth-quarter GDP, January Durable Goods Orders and weekly jobless claims, followed by US pending housing contract data later in the morning. However, the most important event of the week will be the US core PCE index on Friday, along with the January personal income and personal spending reports. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, helping gold traders gauge the outlook for interest rates in the near term. 📌Technically, although the gold price is still maintaining an uptrend, however, on the Weekly and Daily charts, some technical indicators such as MACD show signs that the price has diverged, the moving average lines (EMA34,89) are quite far from the price line, this shows that the gold price next week may face adjustment pressure before continuing to increase again, unless there are fundamental factors that have a strong impact on the gold price. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,922 – 2,915USD Resistance: 2,946USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3001 - 2999⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3005 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2834 - 2836⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2830
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD is under great pressure by the US DollarThe US Dollar Index soared again, which put pressure on OANDA:XAUUSD adding momentum to the adjustment momentum taking place in recent days. Bloomberg said that after US President Donald Trump confirmed he would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week, currency traders bought the US Dollar, while currencies other than the USD were negatively affected, with the Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso being hit the hardest. The soaring US Dollar is also detrimental to precious metals, commodities and digital currencies. Trump said 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect on March 4. He stated on his "Truth Social" account: "Drugs are still flowing into our country from Mexico and Canada in unacceptable quantities. We cannot let this scourge continue to hurt the United States, so until it stops or is tightly controlled, tariffs are proposed." with Canada and Mexico) scheduled to take effect on March 4 will actually take effect as planned." Trump also said he would impose "reciprocity" tariffs of 25% on cars and other European goods. OANDA:XAUUSD In recent times, it has still been going fast and strong, although fundamentally there are still many existing support risks, mainly due to profit-taking activities after a long period of price increases and the strong increase in the price of the US Dollar. Thanks to the influx of money into safe havens, gold prices hit an all-time high of $2,956.15 an ounce on Monday after a rapid downward correction. Gold prices are clearly fluctuating, short-term fluctuations and some profit-taking are just a normal part of the cycle Since the presidential election on November 5 of last year, the Dollar Spot Index has gained 6.62%. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD The medium-term uptrend of gold price is threatened when the sell-off momentum brings gold price below the price channel and EMA21, these are negative signals with the next support level being noticed at the price point of 2,835USD, more likely is the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, the $2,880 level is the previous support turned resistance with the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement becoming the nearest resistance. On the other hand, the RSI tests the 50 mark. Once the RSI passes the 50 mark, this will be a warning of continued price decline because there is still room to fall with the RSI quite far from the oversold level. As noted to readers in previous publications and short comments during the day, the downward correction will not stop easily before the original price point of 2,900 USD, so you must always be ready for stronger corrections when gold has had a very long period of technical increase. Although gold has not yet formed a clear downtrend in the medium term, there is still room to fall ahead and notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,850 – 2,835 – 2,814USD Resistance: 2,868 – 2,880 – 2,900USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2911 - 2909⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2915 →Take Profit 1 2903 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2897 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2849 - 2851⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2845 →Take Profit 1 2857 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2863
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
The downtrend dominates, the focus needs attentionGeneral crude oil market and WTI crude oil technical chart TVC:USOIL Still in a downward trend. Trump revoked Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela, which has fueled supply-side market concerns and supported a recovery in oil prices, but they are still on a downtrend and trade policy uncertainty has limited a recovery in demand expectations. The focus of the crude oil market will still need to pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation, the US Dollar index, and the Trump administration's trade policy. Notable technical levels are as follows. Support: 68.52USD Resistance: 70 - 71.43USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis & Trading PlanBitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis & Trading Plan – February 28, 2025 Market Overview The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price is currently trading at $79,770, showing a -0.74% decline in the latest 4-hour candlestick. The chart illustrates a falling wedge trading pattern, which is considered a bullish reversal signal. The price is approaching the lower boundary of the wedge, signaling a potential breakout to the upside. Technical Indicators & Key Observations Falling Wedge Pattern: The price has been making lower highs and lower lows within a falling wedge formation (red and green trendlines). A breakout above the upper boundary of the wedge could trigger a strong bullish rally. Support and Resistance Levels: Immediate support: $76,665 Major support: $67,679 Key resistance levels: $88,671 $91,271 $95,497 $108,329 (Major long-term resistance) Momentum Indicators: RSI (Relative Strength Index): 22.26 (oversold), indicating potential upward momentum. Stochastic Oscillator: 16.14, also in the oversold region, confirming a possible reversal. Money Flow Index (MFI): Showing weak inflow, but a reversal at these levels could indicate increasing buying pressure. Cipher_B Divergences: Potential bullish divergence forming, adding confluence to the breakout scenario. Professional Trading Plan Entry Strategy Aggressive Entry: If Bitcoin closes a 4-hour candle above the wedge's upper trendline (~$80,500), an early entry can be considered. Conservative Entry: Wait for confirmation above the $82,000 level with strong volume before entering a long position. Profit Targets First Target: $88,671 (previous local high) Second Target: $91,271 (psychological level) Third Target: $95,497 (strong resistance) Ultimate Target: $108,329 (major long-term resistance) Stop-Loss Strategy For aggressive traders: Below $76,500 (recent low) For conservative traders: Below $74,000 to reduce risk exposure Risk Management Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3 or higher (entry should be calculated to maintain proper risk-reward) Position Sizing: Allocate 2-5% of capital to this trade, considering volatility. Conclusion Bitcoin is currently trading at a critical support level within a falling wedge. The RSI, Stochastic, and MFI indicators suggest oversold conditions, indicating a potential bullish breakout. Traders should watch for a confirmed breakout above the wedge with strong volume before entering a position. Targets remain between $88,000 and $108,000, with well-defined stop-loss levels to minimize risk. 💡 Recommendation: Monitor price action closely, especially in the next few 4-hour candles. If BTC breaks above the wedge, prepare for a bullish move towards resistance levels.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by elfabiiani
1
2025-02-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears showed strength once again and we have made new lows. Now comes the most important part tomorrow. They need a very strong monthly close below 20600 to close below the January low. Bulls want any close closer to 21000. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 21700 bull case: Bulls see this as the climactic ending on the 4h tf after 3 legs down. They now want to close the month more neutral around 21000 and most likely above. They probably are beginning to scale into longs again since 6 consecutive red days are so unusual, that the odds of a decent pull-back are good. We are also around 300 points away from the big bull trend line and there is absolutely no reason why this should break on the next hit. If we stay above 20500, I favor the bulls for a bounce up to 20800 or 21000 before I turn full bear again. Invalidation is below 20500. bear case: Bears are overdoing it and they could get squeezed tomorrow. Bounces this week were between 200-400 points and that would bring us to 21000 where I expect another strong try down by the bears. If we even get there. Bears want to keep this max bearish and continue with the 15m 20ema being resistance. Today’s selling was strong enough that we could potentially reach 20000 tomorrow but it’s far. We have two bear channels now. One you can see on my 4h chart and then another on the 15m or 1h chart. The smaller one has to stay intact if bears want another big bear day tomorrow. Invalidation is above 21100. short term: Need a bounce to sell this. Monthly close around 20000 is possible but bulls have been buying new lows all week and we should hit at least 20800 or even 21k. But there I do think we will close this month at the lows and hopefully below 20500. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000. trade of the day: Selling on the open was strong enough to expect the gap close down to 21200. We did more but 21000 was expected to be huge support. The second leg down started slow and accelerated. Where should you have shorted on the second leg? Market failed exactly at the 15m 20ema and after the third consecutive and increasing in size - bear bar, shorts were necessary. Could you have known the extend of the sell-off? Never while it’s happening but you should keep runners and hope to catch such a 400 point move down.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
Qualified for increases, but be careful with adjustmentsOANDA:XAUUSD remains in the rising channel after a significant downward correction since the recent record price rally and investors are focused on inflation data due out later this week and the latest developments on US President Donald Trump's tax plans. OANDA:XAUUSD was trading at nearly $2,905/oz as of press time, about 60Dollar below the all-time high reached on Monday after Trump announced his administration would impose 25% tariffs on the European Union without clarifying whether the tariffs would affect all EU exports or be limited to certain products or industries. At the same time, Trump also announced US tariffs on Mexico and Canada would take effect on April 2, delaying the original March 4 effective date. Late Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed he will maintain 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and added the European Union to the list of countries he will punish American consumers for importing goods from. Trump added that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect on April 2. Market participants will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump's next tariff policy. Tariff uncertainty could spur flows into safe assets, benefiting precious metals. Since Trump returned to power, his comments on the timing, scale and targeting of tariffs have often confused global markets and raised questions about his policies. This instability, coupled with geopolitical changes, highlights gold's role as a store of value in times of uncertainty. Gold prices have also been supported in recent days by weak U.S. economic data, which has traders expecting the Federal Reserve to make just two 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year. Lower borrowing costs typically favor gold because the metal doesn't pay interest. On the other hand, Trump's plan to raise tariffs could raise the Federal Reserve's concerns about inflation, which could convince the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. This may limit gold's rise. Looking ahead, investors will analyze Friday's core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favored measure of inflation, for more reading and anticipation of the direction of monetary policy. Basically, gold still has a lot of potential support as the recent decline was mainly due to profit-taking and partly affected by the cooling situation in Ukraine, which was brought to the attention of readers through daily publications and short comments. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold continues to decline as the recovery fails to take gold price above the POC Volume Profile and the Fibonacci point extends 0.236%. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also pointing down with a significant slope, showing that the price momentum is overwhelming because profit-taking activities in the market are overwhelming. It is very likely that gold will continue to decline more with a target of around 2,865 USD, this is also the confluence position of the lower edge of the price channel with EMA21, this support position is very important for the uptrend of gold prices in the medium term. Once gold is sold below $2,865, further downside will be noticed at $2,835 – $2,790 in the short term, so long protection levels should be placed behind this price point. Regarding the current position, gold still has enough upside conditions and notable levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,865USD Resistance: 2,933 – 2,946USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2941 - 2939⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2933 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2927 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2869 - 2871⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2865 →Take Profit 1 2877 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2883
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Dow Jones Bullish Setup for a Friday Dump?We've swept today's lows while also establishing a new high. This sets the stage for a strong buyback toward the 44,000 level, where we previously dumped last Friday. I am eyeing the areas around 43,470 & 43,562 as potential opening structures. With high-impact news closing out both the week and the month, we should see some solid volatility—presenting prime opportunities to capitalize on market moves. Let’s lock in⚡ Its too early to tell, but I am anticipating a crazy dump on Friday that will take us back to 2025 Open price.
CBOT_MINI:MYMH2025Long
by GeneralJWS
1
GOLD recovered after a 1.3% correction, paying attention to PCEOANDA:XAUUSD rose slightly on Wednesday (February 26), after a sharp 1.3% drop in the previous trading day, as traders took profits from a new record high set by gold. Spot gold prices fell to their lowest level in more than a week yesterday as investors took profits after a period of gold prices reaching record highs amid ongoing concerns about instability caused by US President Trump's tax imposition plan. OANDA:XAUUSD traded at nearly 2,915Dollar.oz, about $40 below the all-time high set on Monday. Gold prices have been supported in recent days by weak U.S. economic data that raised expectations the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in July, while President Donald Trump's growing tariff threats have increased safe-haven demand. In addition, gold is also receiving renewed attention from gold ETFs. Last week ETFs saw their largest net inflows since 2022, according to Bloomberg data. - The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its gold holdings by 0.29 tons compared to the previous day and the current gold holdings are 907.82 tons. - The world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust reduced its holdings by 73.62 tons compared to the previous day and its current holdings are 13,655.67 tons. Meanwhile, investors and economists expect the Fed to respond “robustly and systematically” to changes in inflation and the labor market, according to research released Monday by the San Francisco Federal Reserve. Rising inflation could force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold. Uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's use of tariffs as a negotiating tool has caused traders to become risk-averse. On Monday, Trump hinted that tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada would take effect next week, even as both countries work to combat fentanyl and illegal immigration. This week, key US data also includes durable goods orders, revised fourth-quarter GDP and the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After a shock correction in yesterday's trading session, gold recovered to maintain price activity above the original price level of 2,900 USD, which can be considered a positive signal when the downward momentum is limited. Downside corrections can occur at “shock” levels, which have come to the attention of readers in many publications whenever the market has been up for a long period of time and the Relative Strength Index enters the overbought area. This can be considered normal market activity, because any type of asset that increases or decreases in price does not move in a straight line. On the current daily chart, Gold still has bullish conditions with support from the trend channel and EMA21 as key support, on the other hand price activity above the $2,900 level also plays a positive role. As long as gold remains in the price channel, above EMA21, its main prospective trend is still bullish, price drops should only be considered short-term corrections. During the day, important positions will be highlighted as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880USD Resistance: 2,938 – 2,946USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2941 - 2939⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2933 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2927 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2876 - 2878⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2872 →Take Profit 1 2884 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2890
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Nasdaq volatility ahead into close of week!Wonderful opportunity to extract profits from the markets on current Nasdaq futures setup. Pay close attention to those buy-side & sell-side liquidity zones relative to the doji candle established on the 15min tf. Expect that range to be tested once again into London/NY sessions. Sell-side liquidity target expected to be reached at 21075-21090 levels, corresponding to 1.272 fibonacci extension target on sell structure. After that, I anticipate a strong buy sequence to 21440's buy-side target
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by DaveTradesLive
1
2025-02-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Very important day tomorrow. Bulls made a new high and higher lows. A breakout above would certainly open the path to the ath-retest 23000. Bulls have defended the bull trend line so far and if bears just step aside enough, we could print a big green day. Bears need lower lows below 22280 to keep this neutral and continue sideways. They would also then have a chance of breaking below the bull trend line and testing down to 22000. Important this day was. Bulls followed-through as expected but came short of 22900 and a new ath above 23000. Again we have clear invalidation prices for both sides. Above 22750 bulls could try again and continue inside the current bull channel. Below 22550 the bull channel is broken and 22500 has to hold or we flush to 22400. Below 400 is 22k and I do think there is a decent chance we could close February below 22000. Be prepared for some EU trade war news and this could become a risk-off event tomorrow. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22100 - 23000 bull case: Was this a lower high major trend reversal? Bulls keep the bull channel alive if they stay above 22550ish. If they do, they remain in control and we could try another run at 22900 or a new ath. Biggest problem for them sits in the White House and we can expect some trade war related news tomorrow, which could be a big trigger for another sell-off. Invalidation is below 22550. bear case: Bears have a good setup to crash this down. Double tops on multiple time frames and a news event that could be a huge risk-off event. I have given invalidation prices for both sides, set up notifications and trade accordingly. Invalidation is above 22750. short term: Neutral until prices break above or below my given targets. I dream of a February close below 22000. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long above 22600 as given yesterday. Was good for 280 points.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
NEARUSDT on a bullish climb! 🚀 The price BINANCE:NEARUSDT.P is moving steadily inside an ascending channel, testing *3.080 USDT* resistance. If the breakout holds, we could see a push toward higher levels! 🔑 *Key Levels:* **Support:** *3.051 USDT* – main level keeping the trend intact. *3.000 USDT* – deeper support if retracement kicks in. **Resistance:** *3.094 USDT* – key breakout point. *3.150 USDT* – potential next stop for bulls. 🚀 *Trading Strategy:* *Long Entry:* After confirming a breakout above *3.094 USDT*. *Stop-Loss:* Below *3.051 USDT* – protecting against fakeouts. *Profit Targets:* *3.120 USDT* – quick scalp target. *3.150 USDT* – solid take-profit zone. *3.200 USDT* – full bullish extension if momentum builds. 📊 *Technical Outlook:* Price respecting the channel = continuation likely. Volume picking up – signals increasing bullish interest. Failure to break resistance could lead to a pullback to support. 💡 *What to Watch?* Watch for volume confirmation on breakout! If resistance rejects, look for a retest at lower support before re-entering. Bulls in control, but risk management is key. Are we heading for a breakout or a pullback? Drop your thoughts! 🚀🔥
Long
by Max_Pr0fit
1
2025-02-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Very important day tomorrow. Bulls made a new high and higher lows. A breakout above would certainly open the path to the ath-retest 23000. Bulls have defended the bull trend line so far and if bears just step aside enough, we could print a big green day. Bears need lower lows below 22280 to keep this neutral and continue sideways. They would also then have a chance of breaking below the bull trend line and testing down to 22000. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22100 - 23000 bull case: Bulls give up above 22600 and we sold off on every touch since Thursday. If bulls want to retest 23000, they need to break strongly above 22600 and trap bears who are selling that price for 4 days now. The daily chart still looks bullish enough that bulls remain in control. We are above the daily ema, above the bull trend line and we still have a bullish gap from 22000 - 22300. Plan for tomorrow is to either get a strong breakout above 22600 to buy or look for longs around 22400 and continue with the higher lows. Invalidation is below 22300. bear case: Bears need lower lows again or bulls will become more aggressive for a ath retest. If 22600 continues as resistance we will likely go down to 22400 and there we will likely get a decision tomorrow. If we print higher lows again, the next touch of 22600 could get the breakout. Below 22400 the bull trend line could have become weak enough that we might do lower lows again and test down to 22200 or 22170 (last weeks low). Bearish plan is to wait and see if 22600 is still resistance and join the bears down to 22400 but keep a tight stop. I won’t bet on lower lows. Invalidation is above 22650. short term: Neutral. Clear plan given, mark the prices and set up alarms. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 22600 was the trade that worked since Thursday. Buying the EU open was also decent since 22300 has been support since Globex open on Monday.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
Targeting a new era peak, risks blanket the marketOANDA:XAUUSD hit another all-time high as U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs increased market fears of a global trade war, boosting safe-haven demand. Trump's tariff policy and global market reaction Trump said on Wednesday that he would announce new tariffs on lumber, autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals "next month or sooner." Since taking office on January 20, Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on imports from China and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. As trade risks increase, global central banks are likely to continue buying gold, which is one of the key supporting factors for gold prices. Ukraine situation and the possibility of gold correction in the short term Trump also criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as a "dictator" on Wednesday and warned that Ukraine must quickly reach a peace deal with Russia or lose the country. If a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is reached, geopolitical tensions could temporarily ease in the short term, which could put pressure on gold prices. However, gold still has enough fundamental support and the long-term uptrend could continue. Fed policy and Swiss gold exports soar Minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting released Wednesday showed that Trump's early economic policies have raised concerns about rising inflation. This reinforces the Fed's stance on maintaining the current interest rate policy. According to foreign media, Swiss customs data showed that Swiss gold exports increased significantly year-on-year in January, with gold exports to the United States reaching their highest level in at least 13 years. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold reached the target level of 2,946 USD, readers noted in the previous issue that the price point of the Fibonacci extension was 0.382%, it broke this level to renew its all-time high. With the current position, if gold takes price action above the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level once again, it will have conditions to continue to increase with a target then around 2,971 USD in the short term, more than 2,996 – 3,000 USD. The relative strength index also does not indicate any possibility of a downward correction in terms of momentum. During the day, the short-term uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by trend, and as long as gold remains in the price channel, it still has a main bullish outlook, declines should only be considered as short-term corrections or a buying opportunity. Notable locations will also be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,922 – 2,915USD Resistance: 2,954 – 2,971 – 2,996USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2971 - 2969⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2975 →Take Profit 1 2963 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2957 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2909 - 2911⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2905 →Take Profit 1 2917 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2923
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Minor correction, GOLD renewed its peakOANDA:XAUUSD spiked to a record high on Monday as concerns about Trump's tax plans fueled safe-haven demand, and inflows into the world's largest gold ETF also provided further support. Although there have been adjustments as of the time this article was completed, this price decrease is insignificant, currently gold is trading around 2,940USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of 0.41% on the day. OANDA:XAUUSD hit an intraday high of $2,956.29 an ounce on Monday, a record high and the 11th all-time high refresh this year. The US Dollar Index (Dxy) hit its lowest since December 10 last year in intraday trading on Monday, making gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Another positive news for gold was that the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 1 basis point to 4.443%. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, announced its gold holdings rose to 904.38 tons last Friday, the highest level since August 2023. Trump says tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be imposed on time US President Donald Trump said on Monday that comprehensive US tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will take effect as scheduled after a one-month reprieve ends next week. Trump signed an executive order on February 1 imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. However, on February 3, Trump announced that new tariffs would be postponed for 30 days as Mexican President Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau both pledged to increase border enforcement. According to Trump's announcement, tariffs on Canadian goods will be deferred for 30 days, while tariffs on Mexican imports will be deferred for one month. Markets generally believe that these tariff plans will cause inflation and potentially trigger a trade war, thereby increasing demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although on the daily chart, the RSI shows that the buying force is "exhausted" with price activity in the overbought area, the corrections that have occurred are not significant because the RSI has not yet gone below the 80 level with its steep slope. Looking at the technical chart, staying above $2,940 is a bullish factor and if gold continues to trade above the 0.382% Fibonacci extension it has a bullish outlook and a target then around $2,971 in the short term. The trend will still act as a short-term trend, even in case it breaks below, the main outlook for gold is still bullish with the price channel and EMA21 as main support. However, the market will not move in a straight line, so traders must always be ready for large downward corrections that can occur when RSI operates for a long time in the overbought area. In terms of trading, trades should be trend-based with support and resistance positions noted again as follows. Support: 2,922 – 2,915USD Resistance: 2,946 – 2,956 – 2,971USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2971 - 2969⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2975 →Take Profit 1 2963 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2957 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2909 - 2911⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2905 →Take Profit 1 2917 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2923
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2025-02-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears have turned 21650 (last weeks low) resistance, which is a huge sign of strength. Their problem is, that they could not break below the previous bear trend line and as long as that holds, we could have another bounce from 21400 up to 500 or 600. It’s a clear bear wedge and I think the next push down would bring us much closer to the bull trend line around 21200. For now I still don’t have any confidence in the bears to make new lows below 20900. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 21700 bull case: Bulls bought the dip but it keeps dipping. They failed to get above Friday’s low 21650 and after 2h of trying bulls gave up and we closed at new lows. Bulls now need to keep the bear wedge alive and buy 21400 to test back up to 21500 or 600. Market is respecting the trend lines and 1h ema. So don’t bet on a breakout of either. Wait for it to happen and tag along. Bulls can only turn this neutral with consecutive 1h closes above the 20ema. Invalidation is below 21300. bear case: Bears did amazing, which is surprising to me. They have no erased 2 weeks of gains in 3 days. Interesting to say the least. Lower targets are 21200, followed by 21000 and 20940. The bear wedge is valid until broken and I wait for the Globex open to see if bulls buy 21400 or bears want blood. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect the trend lines to hold and chop some up to at least 21500 and getting closer to the 1h ema before we can have a third leg down. Invalidation is above 21700. short term: Bearish near the 1h 20ema or upper bear wedge line. Would be amazing to see 21000 this week but for now I still have doubts. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000. trade of the day: Buying the Globex open obviously and then shorting 21600 once we broke below the 15m ema again at bar 52 or 53.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds