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USDJPY took a breather on ThursdayFollowing a robust rally earlier in the week, USDJPY took a breather on Thursday, displaying a lack of clear direction but maintaining a steady position above 155.00. If gains resume, resistance looms at 158.00 and 160.00 thereafter. Traders, however, must view movements towards these levels with caution, as Tokyo may step in again to support the yen, which could precipitate a swift reversal. On the flip side, if the bullish scenario fails to materialize and prices begin to head lower, the first support to keep an eye on appears at 154.65. On continued weakness, all eyes will be on 153.15, followed by 152.30-152.00, an important technical range, where the 50-day simple moving average aligns with a medium-term ascending trendline.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY surged to multi-decade highs around 154.80Earlier in the week, USDJPY surged to multi-decade highs around 154.80 before retracing slightly from those lofty levels as the weekend approached. If the downward reversal gains traction in the upcoming trading sessions, support looms at 153.20 and 152.00 thereafter, with 150.80 possibly becoming a focal point if these price thresholds are breached. On the flip side, if USDJPY resumes its climb, resistance is likely to materialize near 154.80, followed by 156.00, the upper boundary of a short-term rising channel in place since December of last year. While the pair maintains a bullish outlook, it's essential to proceed with caution given the overbought market conditions and the increasing probability of FX intervention by the Japanese government.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY rebounded from Fib0.618% levelOn Friday (July 5), data from the US Department of Labor showed that US nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 jobs in June. The May data was revised sharply downward to show an increase of 218,000 jobs, compared to the previous value of 272,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, slightly above expectations of 4.0%. Friday's nonfarm payrolls report showed US jobs growth slowed slightly in June while the unemployment rate rose, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates capacity in September. Data-wise it is not favorable for the USD and this creates some pressure on USD/JPY. But the general picture is that USD/JPY still tends to increase fundamentally because the interest rate difference between the Fed and BOJ is still very large. On the daily chart, after OANDA:USDJPY correction since testing the edge on the price channel (a), the correction also received support from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. Note to readers in the previous issue. The 0.618% Fibonacci level acts as short-term support, while the EMA21 moving average and trend price channel (a) act as main supports and are also the main trend of USD/JPY. In the short term, as long as USD/JPY remains above the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will remain supported and the possibility of a downside correction will remain limited and the target level in the near term is aimed at the 0.786% Fibonacci level. In case USD/JPY falls below 160.204 it has room to correct a bit more with EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.50% as targets. However, during the day the uptrend of USD/JPY will still be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 160,204 – 159,896 Resistance: 161,951 – 162,464
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered strongly by IndiaOANDA:XAUUSD Strong recovery, Gold price reached 2,418 USD/ounce during the Asian trading session on July 24. Spot gold ended a four-session losing streak as India's move to cut import taxes on gold and silver is expected to boost global gold demand. India plans to significantly reduce import duties on gold and silver The Indian government on Tuesday announced plans to reduce import tax on gold and silver from 15% to 6%. The move could boost retail demand and help curb smuggling in India. “To increase the domestic value addition of gold and precious metal jewellery, I propose to reduce customs duty on gold and precious metals,” Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in her budget speech on Tuesday. silver down 6%.” Increased gold demand in India could push up global gold prices because India is the world's second largest gold consumer. In addition to news from India, falling US bond interest rates is also a positive signal for gold. Gold prices recovered, due to falling US Treasury bond yields. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.5 basis points to 4.24%, which is a positive signal for gold. Traders are awaiting key US economic data, including June inflation and Q2 GDP, to gauge the Fed's next move. According to CME Group's "FedWatch" tool, the market expects a 96.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Since gold does not earn interest, cutting interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby making gold more attractive to investors. Pay attention to important US data The focus this week will be on US second-quarter GDP data on Thursday and the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday, as this is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. A weaker PCE is expected to be positive for gold, mainly because the market will be more confident that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, up to now, gold is having its second day of recovery since profit-taking pressure caused gold prices to adjust to the important support area around 2,390 - 2,400 USD. Attention readers before. Gold prices also achieved the initial target recovery level at the $2,416 area noted in yesterday's publication and with the current momentum, the next target level will be around $2,430. If gold breaks the 2,430 USD level, the bullish outlook will continue to open up with a new cycle and the subsequent target level of about 2,465 USD, the price point of the 0.328% Fibonacci extension. As long as gold remains above EMA21 and within the trend price channel the main trend remains bullish and the bullish structure is not affected, pullbacks do not take gold price below EMA21 then it should only be considered as short-term adjustments. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,420 – 2,430USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2434 - 2432 ⚰️SL: 2438 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2422 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2372 - 2374 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2379 ⬆️TP2: 2384
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
2024-07-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Lower low again after market formed a perfect double top with Globex high, which was couple of ticks above Globex open. Market is going down but barely. Bears taking profits at new lows and wait for market to go higher again before they sell it. 1h 20ema is a roller coaster. Need to trade small, have wide stops and wait for decent pullbacks. current market cycle: trending trading range or broad bear channel, whatever you prefer to call it key levels: 74 - 78 bull case: Bulls buying new lows and making money. That’s about it. They are too weak to push to make new highs and bears will probably stop at bigger resistance which I think is below 74. Invalid below 73. bear case: Bears in control but they are taking profits at new lows and thats why the channel down is so broad and we have two sided trading. Play the bear channel until it’s clearly broken. Do not try to be a rocket scientist here and start with macro schmackro stuff about oil. It’s going down, look for shorts. Be Forest Gump and not Cathie Wood. Invalid above 78. short term: Bearish. Play the channel. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday current swing trade: Still short since 82.69. trade of the day: Selling the double top Globex and EU high at 77.6. Had to get short latest at bar 42 but better 41 since it was also a head & shoulders or the top of the trading range. More than enough reasons to sell.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by priceactiontds
2024-07-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Decent selling by the bears today. I expect follow through tomorrow but mostly sideways markets going into US close tomorrow. Earnings is a gamble imo and I don’t do that. I’m playing the bear channel and will be flat once market stalls. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18200 - 18700 bull case: Bulls also bought new lows here and scalped. They bounced at the 50% pb from last week and now they want to go mostly sideways to break out of the bear channel. I don’t think they want to die on that hill. They had a decent pullback last week and know that bears want at least 18300 again. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears did ok today but closed barely below Friday’s close. They want to continue the channel down to 18300 but I don’t think many traders want to have big positions going into tomorrow’s US close given the earnings releases. Play the channel until it breaks. Invalidation is above 18560. short term: Bearish as long as the bear channel holds. 1. Target below is 18300 medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: 400 points in profit, will take most off around 18000-18100 and see where Market wants to go. —unchanged trade of the day: Trading range from Globex until US opened. Best trades were shorts from EU open bar 28 for gap close and can exit bar 37. Next best short was bar 52, follow through selling after a two legged pullback right below the 15m 20ema.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 28th —>Aug 2nd)**DIYWallST Weekly Recap & Market Forecast** --- Hello Investors! 🌟 This week was marked by significant economic and political developments, driving volatility in global stock markets. Let’s dive into the key events that shaped the financial landscape. 📈 **Market Overview:** The week began with a surprise rate cut by China’s PBOC, but this was quickly overshadowed by President Biden’s announcement that he was dropping out of the race. The Democratic Party swiftly rallied around Kamala Harris, with endorsements pouring in from state governors and, ultimately, the Obamas. By the end of the week, Harris appeared to have secured the nomination. The political developments contributed to a 'Trump-trade' sentiment, with small-cap value stocks continuing to outperform mega-cap technology shares. The cool June CPI and subsequent soft data points have also fueled expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year, underpinning this market rotation. The US yield curve steepened notably, with the 2-10 year spread popping above -15 bps, while the VIX rose sharply through Thursday. A letter from former NY Fed President Dudley may have increased investors’ expectations for a Fed rate cut. The Bank of Canada cut rates for the second straight meeting, while global PMI readings indicated some softening, particularly outside the services sector. Pulte’s home orders fell short of analyst expectations, and June existing home sales missed targets despite rising supply levels. Richmond Fed data was weak, and several major industrial and chemical companies cut their outlooks. June PCE data indicated “further progress” for the Fed, echoing concerns about discretionary spending and a softening consumer pushing back against price hikes. **Stock Market Performance:** - 📉 S&P 500: Down by 0.8% - 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 0.8% - 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 2.1% - 📈 Russell 2000: Up by 3.3% **Economic Indicators:** - **US Yield Curve:** Steepened significantly with the 2-10 year spread popping above -15 bps. - **June Existing Home Sales:** Missed expectations despite rising supply levels. - **Richmond Fed Data:** Indicated economic weakness. - **June PCE Data:** Showed progress in cooling inflation. - **Bitcoin Prices:** Climbed ~5% ahead of Former President Trump’s appearance at a crypto conference. - **Dollar and Yen:** The dollar remained steady, while the Yen rose amid speculation of a potential BOJ rate hike. **Corporate News:** - **Google and Tesla:** Earnings reports did little to curtail volatility. Tesla missed estimates and Google’s YouTube ad revenues fell short, leading to a decline in AI enthusiasm as Google's AI monetization efforts didn't meet investor expectations. - **Ford Motor:** Shares tumbled after a significant earnings miss, with the company continuing to lose money on each EV it produces. - **3M:** Shares surged after posting a big earnings beat, despite noting softness in consumer discretionary demand and mixed industrial end markets. **Looking Ahead:** Next week will feature several key events: - **Fed Rate Decision** - **Powell Press Conference** - **U.S. Jobs Report** - **Earnings Reports:** Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ), Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), Meta ( NASDAQ:META ), Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), Intel ( NASDAQ:INTC ), ExxonMobil ( NYSE:XOM ), Chevron ( NYSE:CVX ), Boeing ( NYSE:BA ), and McDonald's ( NYSE:MCD ). As we look forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟 ### **Market Forecast (Updated 07/28/2024)** **SPX** - TSLA reported poorly on their earnings + weak guidance from GOOGL drove the market down. Money continued to Rotate into Small Caps from tech sector last week. With FOMC this week, we could potentially see a bottom in the market by Friday as we are pretty oversold at this point. Next resistance $5505 and $5653 Next support $5423 and 5285 Weekly Sentiment = Oversold **Chart Analysis:** () **Dollar Index:** DXY-Currently, the market is looking at 2-3 rate cuts by the end of the year, But we should get a clear picture from FOMC chair this week on exactly what they are thinking. JPY is also starting to gain strength, Both of these things could weaken the DXY. Next resistance $104.78 Support $104 Sentiment = Crossover to downside **Put to call Ratio: 1.15—> 1.28 Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024** **Fear & Greed Index: 49—>45** ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) **BTC:** Crypto market has been pretty strong and testing resistance, Trump spoke very highly of crypto as well but he also flip-flops a lot. The key thing to watch here is the Dollar index, if that continues to drop, we could see btc test new highs. However, we have a huge trendline at 68k and if we can break over it, it could start a bigger bull run as well. Google our "DIYWALLST 2024 Crypto Forecast" for our favorite alt coins.
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
The market focuses on GDP, PCE, GOLD recovers around $2,400OANDA:XAUUSD fell below its original price of $2,400 on Monday (July 22) as the dollar strengthened slightly, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while markets waited for more data US economists and Federal Reserve officials commented this week to clarify the interest rate cut schedule. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 97.4% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 5.8%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 91.7% and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 2. 4%. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable gold, and are an important support for gold prices. Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he would withdraw from the US presidential race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party candidate in the November election. But it forced a reassessment of risks in the markets. financial markets, affecting gold prices on Monday. As noted to readers in yesterday's edition, if Trump is re-elected, gold will be under certain pressure in the short term because Trump has a harsh tariff stance. But there will not be fundamental pressure because gold will still be supported by the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) gradual interest rate cuts. Markets are currently focused on second-quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) data released on Thursday, as well as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data released on Friday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold fell to levels around the original price point of $2,400, an area that will be noted as a very important support area. The area around 2,400USD is a very important support area because this is the confluence of many technical indicators from EMA21, the lower edge of the medium-term rising price channel and the 0.236% Fibonacci level. If gold can recover to maintain price activity above its original price of $2,400, then overall the bullish structure has not been broken and there is still upside potential. The upward momentum will become clearer if gold can bring price activity above 2,430 USD, at which point the target level will be around 2,465 USD in the short term. As long as gold remains above EMA21 and within the price channel, the medium-term technical outlook remains bullish, which means long protection levels should be placed behind EMA21. During the day, the prospect of recovery with the main uptrend will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,416 – 2,430USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2434 - 2432 ⚰️SL: 2438 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2422 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2372 - 2374 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2379 ⬆️TP2: 2384
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears made another amazing trade selling above 2440 and since this was the third time, they are confident they can push the market lower to at least 2300 again. The selling was strong enough for a second leg and right now a measured move would bring us exactly to 2300. Coincidences huh. Every time someone tells you technical analysis does not work, just nod and make money. It’s not worth the discussion. comment: Bears got their second leg down and the buying has been lackluster at best. Leaning heavily bearish until bulls trade strongly above the daily 20ema again. It’s a tight channel down and already much stronger than the previous sell offs from > 2400. As long as the channel holds, I’m full bear. No deeper analysis needed. current market cycle: trading range on the daily chart but small bear trend inside, which could bring us to 2300. key levels: 2300 - 2488 bull case: Bulls are very weak. The pullbacks they printed so far were doji’s and inside bars. Until they can print a big bull bar closing on it’s high, they have no reasonable arguments for a reversal. 2300 is much more likely than a strong breakout above the bear channel. Expecting more buyers to step in around 2300/2310. Invalidation is below 2290. bear case: Increased volume on the sell off and every rip is sold. Play the channel as long as it holds, bears have every argument on their side. The odds that we break below 2300 this time are decent, since market now tried 3 times to hit 2500 and market will only try one thing so many times until it does the opposite. Invalidation is above 2436. outlook last week: “ short term: Full bear mode if we close below 2360 over the next 1-2 days. At least down to 2300 but decent chance we drop lower this time and start a new bear trend.” → Last Sunday we traded 2399 and now we are at 2381. Low of the week was 2352, outlook was good for 47. short term: Full bear mode continues as long as the bear channel holds. Look for shorts near the top and take profits at new lows. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May current swing trade: None. Will short on weakness on Monday. chart update: Added bear channel.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Increased volume on the down move is telling you that this one is the real one. Over the next months, market will test down to the bull trend line from 2023-10, which is also where the weekly 20ema is. Friday we stopped around the smaller bull trend line and it’s a decent place to expect some pullback before we be on our way to 5400/5450 comment: Low of the week was 5432 and I wrote 5400/5450, +121 points. For most letters/rooms/subscriptions you have to pay good money for those outlooks, if you even get them this accurate. Hope you made some. current market cycle: Bull trap triggered. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600 key levels: 5400-5600 bull case: Lower lows and lower highs. Bulls stopped the selloff where they had to and their last bull trend line before only the one from the covid low remains. I do think the two legged correction is good for now for the bears and a bounce is due. Since both sides have reasonable arguments, I think it will come down to earnings. If the mag7 report good and their outlook stays good, we bounce higher. If they fail or some fail, we move sideways. Slightly favoring a higher bounce to form a proper channel downwards. Decent chance bulls might close both bear gaps. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below. Invalidation is above 5600. outlook last week: short term: Bearish but also expecting a pullback first. Same as dax. → Last Sunday we traded 5553 and now we are at 5499. Low was 5432. Bearish was right. Pullback was right. Hope you made some. short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move. medium-long term: First target for this section was 5450 and that will be hit over the next days or 2 weeks. After that is 5300 over the next 3-8 weeks and 5000 could be hit again in 2024. —update: 5450 was hit mid July. Next comes 5300 over the next 2-6 weeks. current swing trade: Took profits on the swing short from 5700. Will add again above 5550. chart update: Added my preferred bear channel for the next weeks.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls and bears alike knew the recent high at 18900 was a bad buy and they tried to save their bull case on Tuesday but once Wednesday came around and 18700ish was resistance the third time, they gave and we only produced lower highs since. Best bulls can hope for now is to keep it above 18000 and bounce at the weekly 20ema which is exactly right under Friday’s close and that the bull trend line from April will hold. Market expects a pullback and bulls want it to go above 18600, which increases the odds of this being a continuation of the triangle, rather than a new bear trend. comment: Bulls got to 18774, which was way too high for it being a pullback in a bear trend. Market is in a descending triangle where the support is 18200ish. Since we are in the middle of it, worst place to trade. Both sides have reasonable arguments for Monday but this pattern will break next week to one side or the other. Given the many upcoming earnings, I won’t predict them, nor gamble on a trade before market is showing the direction. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 5 month trading range. —update: 5 months now instead of 4. Will break soon. key levels: small range 18000 / 18900 bull case: Bulls had a two legged pullback which got higher than the bears would have liked, which increased the odds of a continuation of the trading range. No side is strong enough to keep the market above or below the daily 20ema, so we are neutral af. You don’t need to analyse it further. Save your mental capacity on other markets and wait for a clear breakout. Invalidation is below 18147. bear case: Bears lost control on Tuesday where they allowed the market to go 200 points above the daily 20ema. They got a strong reversal from above 18700 down to 18200 but there they took profits again and the range continues. 18500 is a bad spot for everyone. Maybe strong bears will respect the minor trend line we formed and trade back down from here to retest the lows but that’s a weak argument at best. The other bear trend line around 18400 is a more reasonable expectation. If we get there, I expect bears to show strength again, just as bulls will probably buy 18200 again. Below 18200 comes 18000 and 17840 in play. Invalidation is above 18785. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode. Will try to catch the bounces as good as one can but the big money will be made to the downside over the next months. Short term we will see a bounce that should stay below 18500/18600 and from there I expect another big leg down to 17800. → Last Sunday we traded 18298 and now we are at 18535. High of the week was 18774 and the low was 18200. Said we get a bounce to 18500/18600 and the high was 18774. Almost perfect outlook since the downside was not as deep but we will get there in the next days/weeks. short term: Neutral. Can see this going both ways and I don’t gamble. No bigger interest in buying this but rather waiting for weakness above 18600 to short again. medium-long term: Time to update this section. I called for 17000 for couple of months now and I said, any short around or above 19000 is amazing. The highs held and now we will see how low we can get in 2024. 17100 is still my first bigger target and should be reached in 2024. At this point it does not make sense to call lower targets. —unchanged since 2024-07 current swing trade: Took some profits on my shorts at 18300 and would add above 18600 again. Chart update: Added minor bear trend lines and adjusted the lower bull trend line but I don’t think market is respecting it that much. Support around 18200 and a descending triangle is more likely.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
Joe Biden, gives up re-election, USD is temporarily supportedUS President Joe Biden on Sunday abandoned his difficult re-election bid under growing pressure from members of his Democratic Party and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed him as party candidate on November 11. Biden will face Republican candidate Trump in the presidential race in the November election. If officially nominated, Harris, 59, will become the first black female presidential candidate of the major parties in American history. “Kamala Harris, as a potential Democratic presidential candidate, her policy ideas cover many areas such as tech regulation, big tech companies, climate and energy. quality as well as artificial intelligence.” If former US President Trump wins a second term, Trump's tariff stance will have a major impact on the market (Trump is known as the US President with a harsh tariff stance, demonstrated by his term in office). Trump had a trade competition with China, which had a deep impact on the market and major fluctuations continuously occurred. During this period, the admin also had to monitor each status line of "this President, very tired".) 1. If Trump is elected, precious metal gold and silver may come under temporary pressure as the Dollar strengthens from Trump's harsh tariff stance. In this context, the Dollar should be considered a safe haven and continue to be promoted. 2. Even if Trump is elected, gold prices are still unlikely to sustainably decline or, more accurately, have a long-term fundamental downward trend by central banks such as the Federal Reserve and Banks The European Central Bank, along with many other major Central Banks, will enter a cycle of cutting interest rates. For this orientation, gold may be temporarily under pressure because the possibility of Trump being elected is very high. According to Bloomberg, Trump's success rate of returning to the White House is more feasible than most other candidates. . In a context where Joe Biden, the representative of the Democratic Party, has given up his difficult re-election effort. However, this impact is not a long-term impact because the Fed's interest rates will have to be cut gradually, and of course this is beneficial for gold prices in the medium and long term. The gold price target will continue to be focused on the $2,500 mark, and technical analysis and more market information readers can review in the weekly publication linked below.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big down, big up, big confusion. Market closed 60 points above where it opened but still a bear day. Since we broke below the shallow bull trend line on the daily chart, this is no longer a triangle and bears increased their chances of making new lows below 17844 over the next days. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18200 - 18700 bull case: Bulls bought the new lows and rallied for 270 points. Tells you that bears are fine with taking profits at new lows and bulls still in btfd mode. Bulls want a second leg up, like they did on Monday & Tuesday. Measured move up would bring us exactly to the high of the week 18774. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears need to trap bulls buying the dip there under 18500 or they risk another high above 18700. Since bears closed the us session below the 1h 20ema, I give the better odds to the bears for follow through selling below 18200. A weekly close below 18000 would be amazing for the bears. Invalidation is above 18500. short term: Neutral until I see follow through selling below 18350. Both sides have reasonable arguments and the market was two sided all week, with big swings in both directions. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: 400 points in profit, will take most off around 18000-18100 and see where Market wants to go. trade of the day: Tricky day again. The bing selling began 3 a.m. CET so long before EU opened. I joined the bears at around 7 a.m. and caught a 80 point ripper down. There was no bullish price action and just selling going on. Then came the hard part below 18300. It was obvious market was trying to bottom and to exit shorts but taking the long was hard. You have to be really mentally flexible to take the other side after such a strong move. Trade of the day was the long bar 13. Bar 9 was strong enough but bar 10 did not trade above it. Bar 11 + 12 were good signal bars and 13 was the follow through. That was good for 200 points. I missed it.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: A trading range after a strong move is more often than not the final flag. Yesterday we formed a late trading range and bulls had a strong move up today, which makes me believe that the sell into the close was the final flag, rather the start of another leg down. Market is at huge support with the bull trend line from October and no one expects it to break on the first try. Can we dip below before a stronger pullback? Sure. Odds still favor the bulls for a pullback, at least to the 4h again, like the bull spike today. I have drawn 2 potential paths forward but as always, wait for the market to show its direction and not guess it and most certainly do not trade before it’s happening. current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. But bubble has popped. Enjoy the ride down. key levels: 5400 - 5560 bull case: Bulls got a strong bounce to the 4h 20ema today. Tomorrow they want to defend the bull trend line from 2023-10 and keep the market above 5500, which is still max bullish if you look at higher tf. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears are in control of the market and in full STR mode. The bounce today was strong but bears reversed it even harder. They are trading below all important ema and their only target for the rest of the month is to break the big bull trend line, which would put bulls in panic mode. Such important trend lines mostly have to be poked at a couple of times before market can break through. If they step aside for another pullback higher, they need to keep it below 5533 or market will test 5560/5570 again. Invalidation is above 5533. short term: Slightly bullish with a clear invalidation price of 5430. Odds slightly favor the bulls for a second leg up and go sideways around 5500. If bears manage to break below the bull trend line, next support is at 5300. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Closed my swing short from 5700 at 5450. I expect a pullback and will short it again. trade of the day: Buying the opening reversal from 5432. On the 5m chart bears just quickly gave up and market made 97 up. Very strong 3 bar reversal and difficult to take after the 40 point drop from the open. Taking the short afterwards was probably easier and better. Market turned at the 4h 20ema and only spent 1h at around 5520 before bears printed a strong 15m bear bar which was strong enough to go short as it closed. On the chart it was bar 13
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
Copper (HG) - Look for Longs?While the decline in copper persists, @HG is nearing areas of previous demand on intermediate-term timeframes. Specficially, we will be watching the industrial metal's action between the prices of 4.1130-4.0605 (with hypothetical stop lower @ 4.0250). Given the current momentum and potential add'l downside per larger timeframes, we recommend watching for micro-TF trend violation/reversal confirm signals before establishing positions. This idea is bolstered by a backdrop more broadly of metals having pulled back and a AMEX:USD that looks vulnerable vs. physical assets over the longer-term. Of course "Dr. Copper" is more closely linked to the global economy vs. GC (which we like better), but price, ultimately, remains undefeated + copper will become a value buy at some point... Godspeed, JHart
COMEX:HG1!Long
by JHartCharts
GOLD adjusted down significantly, the basic trend did not changeAlthough market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September continued to increase, gold prices remained very volatile and had a significant correction session. Gold prices hit a record high of $2,483 on Wednesday amid positive interest rate cut expectations, but failed to hold on to gains as investors booked profits. This, along with the increasing possibility of former US President Donald Trump being elected, has stimulated capital flows into the US Dollar, creating some additional pressure, causing gold to adjust downward. US jobs data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed more people than expected applying for unemployment benefits, indicating slowing economic growth. Coupled with a flurry of data last week showing inflation moving toward the Fed's 2% target, the data is starting to attract policymakers' attention. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed a larger-than-expected increase in first-time unemployment claims in the United States last week, but there were no significant changes in the markets. labor. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that in the week ending July 13, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US increased to 243,000, higher than The expected number is 230,000 and also exceeds 223,000 last week. The most active gold futures contract on COMEX was 636 lots traded immediately within one minute from 07:03 to 07:04 Hanoi time on July 19, with a total contract value of 155 million USD. Overall, the basic picture has not changed much with positive factors still supporting the possibility of gold price increases. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD As noted to readers in yesterday's edition, gold has suffered a downward correction after the Relative Strength Index operated in the overbought area, indicating that the room for price increases is no longer too great. large and require adjustments after a long period of price increases. Currently, gold is also operating quite low but does not affect the main trend of price increase with the price channel as the short-term trend and long-term trend. In the short term, the fact that gold can recover to maintain above the technical level of 2,430 USD will be a good sign for it. On the other hand, if gold recovers back above $2,449, it will mark the end of the downward adjustment cycle. During the day, gold could continue to correct further once it is sold below $2,420 with a subsequent downside target of around $2,400. The downward correction cycle from the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,420 – 2,400USD Resistance: 2,430 – 2,449USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2466 - 2464 ⚰️SL: 2470 ⬆️TP1: 2459 ⬆️TP2: 2454 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2409 - 2411 ⚰️SL: 2405 ⬆️TP1: 2416 ⬆️TP2: 2421
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers after correcting from record level, trend stabilizOANDA:XAUUSD revised down from record highs but growing optimism about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September and a weaker US Dollar still stimulated gold demand. On the economic front, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey showed the U.S. economy growing at a modest pace entering the third quarter. The latest edition of the “Beige Book” was compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond based on information collected on or before July 8. Wage growth was moderate or modest in most jurisdictions, but the rate of price growth is generally moderate. There was little change in consumer spending and almost every jurisdiction cited retailers cutting prices or consumers buying only essentials. Although gold prices have eased from record highs but remain at record highs, expectations of a Fed rate cut getting closer and yields continuing to gradually decline, coupled with a weaker US Dollar, remain. will continue to be the main support factor for gold prices. Many Fed policymakers said they were increasingly confident that price increases were on track and returning to the Fed's target level after stronger-than-expected price data earlier this year. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the time for the Fed to cut interest rates is "near," but uncertainty about the direction of the economy makes it unclear when short-term borrowing costs might fall . According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 98.1% chance that the US will cut interest rates in September. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable gold and put pressure on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold had a downward correction yesterday to retest the support area that readers noticed in the previous issue around the 2,449 USD area, the gold price has recovered and continues to stabilize with the trend. increase. In the short term, the technical structure does not show any notable resistance, while the Relative Strength Index is also approaching the overbought area, showing that the room for price increases is no longer too large. The fact that the room for price increases is no longer too wide, pushing gold prices to enter the accumulation phase after the recent strong increase cycle. However, the main trend for gold prices will still be an uptrend with notable technical levels listed as follows. Support: 2,449 – 2,431USD Resistance: 2,483USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2474 - 2472 ⚰️SL: 2477 ⬆️TP1: 2467 ⬆️TP2: 2462 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2429 - 2431 ⚰️SL: 2425 ⬆️TP1: 2436 ⬆️TP2: 2441
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
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