Futures
GOLD setting a new highest peak in historyOANDA:XAUUSD market continues its unstoppable trend, hitting a record high and up nearly 5% from last Friday. Gold prices continue to benefit from escalating geopolitical tensions, although the US March jobs report lent support to the USD.
Gold prices reached a new high despite strong US nonfarm payrolls data. The report showed an increase of 303,000 jobs in March, surpassing expectations. This suggests the Fed may be patient in fighting inflation. Although gold prices initially decreased, they later recovered and rose by over 1.5%. The market's short-term reaction indicates a demand for shelter.
The main factors driving gold price increases are starting to take effect more and there is more room for the next price increase. Issues such as rising tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine have increased the appeal of gold. Gold prices had their third consecutive weekly increase, after a series of recent records.
As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heat up, gold's safe-haven function will gradually become more effective.
Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that for the week ending April 2, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased by 20,493 lots to 178,213 lots .
Notable economic data & events next week
Wednesday: US Consumer Price Index (CPI), Bank of Canada monetary policy decision
Thursday: ECB monetary policy decision, US core PPI, US weekly initial jobless claims
Friday: University of Michigan preliminary data on consumer sentiment
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold continuously creates new all-time highs. After gaining support from the 2,265 USD level, gold continued to break the peak and also broke the important resistance level at the Fibonacci 0.786% price point of 2,311 USD. Note to readers in the previous issue.
Gold now qualifies for a new bullish cycle as the next technical level in focus could be towards the $2,356 price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension.
The $2,311 – $2,300 level becomes the closest support after the above break, and a bearish correction is possible only if gold manages to bring price activity below the 0.786% Fibonacci level, even in the case of a bearish correction. Gold price will also be limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci level and the price point of 2,265USD.
In the coming time, the main trend of gold price will still be the upward trend from price channel in the short term and price channel in the long term.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,311 – 2,300 – 2,275
Resistance: 2,346 - 2,356
Gold rebounded after falling at the beginning of the sessionGold price today April 8, 2024 on the world market increased dramatically, reaching a new record level of nearly 2,342 USD/ounce after adjusting downward in the morning.
Gold prices set a record thanks to high trading volume after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that recent data will not change the overall economic situation. The US economy continues to grow positively, experts say the Fed still maintains its view on adjusting interest rates this year.
Strong money flows are flowing into gold. Technically, gold prices may decrease next week. But according to this expert, the technical chart has no meaning right now, central banks continue to buy, which causes gold prices to still increase.
In addition, increasing tensions in the Middle East also boost the demand for safe assets such as gold.
Strong buying by central banks and speculative activity are supporting gold prices.
GOLD new all-time high, technical area can make correctionsOANDA:XAUUSD continues to make new all-time highs, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated that recent job growth data and higher-than-expected inflation data will not materially change the the general situation of economic policy this year (the Fed is expected to start its interest rate cutting cycle in June).
Fed Jerome Powell
Powell said that “if the economy expands as we expect,” he and his colleagues at the Fed largely agree that lower policy rates would be appropriate “sometime this year.” ”.
Speeches from Federal Reserve officials, strong jobs data and a decline in business activity in the services sector weighed on the dollar. A slight decline in the US Dollar will create a boost for safe-haven precious metals.
Investors still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time at its policy meeting on June 11-12, although recent strong economic data has tempered expectations. Overall, it doesn't have much impact.
Gold, a hedge against inflation and a safe haven in times of political and economic uncertainty, has risen more than 11% year to date, thanks to strong Federal Reserve buying and demand. safe haven.
Macro data
The ADP report showed that U.S. private companies last month saw their biggest hiring gain since last July, led by the leisure and hospitality industry.
Job growth was strong in all industries, but employment fell in professional services.
US ADP employment increased by 184,000 people in March, the largest increase since July 2023.
“ADP data is not a game changer.” Along with the upward revision to February's data, this is another small piece of evidence that the US economy continues to grow, which should continue to support rising yields. Even in the case of better data than gold, there is still a lot of momentum, and we can even see the dollar market and bond yields rising along with gold.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said the US non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 51.4 in March from 52.6 in February. This is the second consecutive month of decline. continued since the index recovered in January. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.
Services inflation is also falling due to slowing demand. The survey showed that the input price index fell to 53.4 in March from 58.6 in February, the lowest since March 2020. Data last week showed inflation in the services sector, excluding energy and housing, cooled sharply in February after accelerating in January.
The geopolitical situation drives the need for shelter
Early on the morning of April 4 local time, the deputy governor in charge of security in Sistan and Baluchestan province in southeastern Iran said that military headquarters in the province's Rask and Chabahar cities were attacked by terrorists. The terrorist organization "Army of Justice" participated in this terrorist attack.
The deputy governor in charge of provincial security said that in Lask city, terrorists tried to break into the Revolutionary Guard base but were unsuccessful and the conflict is still ongoing.
It is known that 3 Iranian soldiers were killed in the battle with the terrorist organization "Army of Justice".
Iran blames Israel for the deadly airstrike on its consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus on Monday. The attack killed seven officers.
Tehran on Tuesday pledged to retaliate for the attack, seen as a major escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian war.
Geopolitical risks are becoming increasingly prominent, which is beneficial for safe-haven demand, especially assets sensitive to geopolitical instability such as gold.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
In terms of technical structure, the gold price still has all the bullish factors. All-time levels are continuously refreshed and currently gold slows down to reach the original price of 2,300 USD and the area near the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, this area is expected to create short-term corrections first. as the main uptrend continues.
Since gaining support from the $2,265 level, readers noted in yesterday's edition gold has increased significantly with a break above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension making this level support. Current nearest support.
The gold market is likely to receive downward corrections as the Relative Strength Index reaches overbought levels, a short-term price decline that could retest the support area of the upper edge of the price channel and the 0.618% Fibonacci extension.
In the short term, the main trend of gold price is still an uptrend and may adjust in the short term. Notable technical levels are listed below:
Resistance: 2306 - 2315 - 2320 - 2330 - 2335
Support: 2297 - 2288 - 2282 - 2266
Gold boom, reversal or new record ahead?Gold price today (April 9), the world market reversed and increased sharply again compared to the previous trading session. Rising demand and high expectations of investors have pushed gold prices up despite positive economic developments.
A series of positive US economic information shows signs that the world's No. 1 economy is recovering well. Therefore, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) still maintains its stance of tightening monetary policy until inflation falls to the target level of 2%. Market forecasts for the Fed to lower interest rates next June have decreased from over 70% to over 60%.
Gold has reached multiple record highs this year, mostly in the past two months. Surprisingly, its usual negative correlation with U.S. real rates has significantly weakened, causing concern among investors.
Gold prices are reaching new record highs due to geopolitical concerns and a strong safe-haven demand. Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have contributed to the recent surge, and as the situation is expected to persist, the demand for gold will continue.
Support: 2328 - 2313 - 2303USD
Resistance: 2348 - 2354 - 2360USD
Trading Plan for Monday, April 8th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 8th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish with potential for volatility as CPI data approaches.
Important Note: CPI data will be released later this week. Expect outsized moves and potential traps. Prioritize risk management and adaptability.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5246 (major), 5230-34 (major), 5221, 5212, 5207, 5203 (major), and others.
Major Supports: 5196, 5191 (major), 5181, 5179 (major), 5172, 5162 (major), 5155, 5144-46 (major), and many more.
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5255 (major), 5263, 5270 (major), 5279, 5287, 5292 (major), and others.
Major Resistances: 5302, 5308 (major), 5311, 5316, 5321, 5329-32 (major), and more.
Trading Strategy
Defending Support: The 5230-34 zone is crucial for bulls. Holding this level signals potential for an upwards move toward 5287-92, with possible profit-taking dips along the way.
Long Opportunities: Focus on the 5230-34 zone (if today's high remains unbroken). In case of a breakdown, use extreme caution and target major supports like 5203 and 5191. Look for failed breakdowns and reclaims as potential long entry signals.
Shorting with Caution: Shorting into strength within bull markets is inherently risky. If considering shorts, the best area is the 5287-92 zone (red downtrend channel), with another potential reaction at 5270.
Bull Case
Holding Strong: As long as 5230-34 support holds (ideally with a minor dip promptly bought below 5203), the path is open to 5287-92. Expect another dip there before potentially reaching new all-time highs.
Ultra Bullish Scenario: If bulls hold above 5246 and buy any small dips, this signals strength and could lead to potential adds.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: If 5230-34 fails, the bear case activates. Since most breakdowns trap, look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider short entries with level-to-level profit targets.
News: Top Stories for April 8th, 2024
Stock Market Outlook
S&P 500 hits record highs, strong Q1 performance increases bullish sentiment.
Reduced recession fears and potential Fed pivot drive positive outlook.
April historically favorable for the S&P 500.
Analysts forecast strong earnings growth with significant upside potential.
Corporate Earnings
Intel's Q1 2024 financial results release set for April 25th.
Perion Network updates guidance, increases share buyback.
Economic Indicators
Q4 GDP growth remains solid despite high interest rates.
Bond market signals potential Fed rate cuts as early as June.
Trade deficit widens, while manufacturing data shows strength.
Technology Sector
Modest growth expected in 2024, with IT investment plans.
AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity to drive tech spending.
Other Corporate and Market News
Nvidia's strong performance continues in AI chip market.
Tesla faces challenges in China, automotive growth slows.
Boeing impacted by quality control concerns.
Upcoming Events
Tech conferences including Google Cloud Next and ODSC East.
Women in Tech Global Conference highlights industry leaders.
Reminder: The CPI release this week will likely cause significant volatility. Adapt your trading accordingly, with an emphasis on reacting to price action and prioritizing risk management.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Gap Should Be Filled 🛢️
We see a nice gap down on WTI.
As always, there is 80% chance that the gap will be filled.
I already see an intraday price action confirmation.
Goals: 86.6 / 87.4
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GOLD in March marked a record month of increaseWorld gold price stood at 2,259 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 26 USD/ounce compared to last week's closing session.
MARKET RECAP: NEW RECORD IN THE BOOKS
Gold broke its previous record and crossed the $2,200 per ounce mark in an exceptional first quarter. This surge was mainly driven by investor expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy outlook. Following a period of significant interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023 in many developed economies, investors anticipate central banks like the Fed to start easing restrictions as economic growth and inflation stabilize.
The future potential for gold's upward movement may be limited due to the already priced-in transition to a more relaxed stance. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to adopt a more dovish posture, which is necessary for significant gains, given recent guidance and inflation risks. If the FOMC delays action and shifts towards a more hawkish direction, gold could face turbulence. Gold typically benefits from lower Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar, which are associated with the Fed reducing borrowing costs.
BEYOND THE FED: GEOPOLITICS, CENTRAL BANK DEMAND
The impact of global interest rates on gold's trend is not the only factor to consider. Ongoing conflicts, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war, have already increased the geopolitical value of gold and could provide further support if tensions escalate in the next quarter.
In addition, strong purchases of physical gold by central banks will contribute to market strength. In 2022 and 2023, central banks acquired more than 1,000 tonnes of gold each year, signaling a historic pace. The Central Bank of Turkey and the People's Bank of China were among the active buyers.
Central banks are buying gold in record amounts due to its safe-haven qualities, stability as a store of value, and diversification benefits. As global power dynamics shift and U.S. dominance becomes less certain, central banks are strategically reallocating their reserves away from heavy reliance on the U.S. dollar. Limited data for 2024 shows strong demand for gold, with January's central bank acquisitions of 39 tonnes and projections suggesting continued robust demand throughout the year. This could provide a buffer against potential losses in a bearish market correction.
THE OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL WITH A WATCHFUL EYE
The second quarter may see consolidation for gold after its strong gains in the first months. A significant price surge is unlikely unless there are unexpected changes in global inflation and monetary policy. Investors should monitor economic data, central bank communication, and geopolitical developments for insights into gold's future. The upcoming U.S. presidential election could bring increased volatility and potentially benefit gold prices as a defensive investment. However, this is not expected to dominate the market in the second quarter yet.
Assessing the outlook, it is estimated that gold price can easily reach 2,300 USD/ounce or higher in the second quarter of 2024.
Resistance: 2260 - 2265 - 2270
Support: 2250 - 2245 - 2235 - 2225
GOLD decreased slightly after the session set a new recordWorld gold price decreased by 3.7 USD to 2,247.8 USD/ounce. After rising sharply to a new record high in the first trading session of April, thanks to expectations of US interest rate cuts and the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, metal prices This quarter has slightly adjusted this morning.
Market watchers are currently expecting the FED to cut interest rates in May or June. However, many investors are still cautious about the pace of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (FED) in the coming months. this year and how long it will take for the FED to bring inflation to its target level of 2%. On March 29, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that economic growth is still strong and inflation is still higher than the target level.
By June, the gold market will see gold prices increase due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the FED. Experts believe that, no matter how quickly or slowly the US Central Bank cuts interest rates, the agency will still reduce interest rates this year.
Breakout: 2265 - 2230
Resistance: 2257 - 2175 - 2280
Support: 2245 - 2235 - 2222 - 2212
GOLD continuously set new recordsWorld gold price stood at 2,282 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 33 USD/ounce compared to the same hour yesterday morning. This continues to be the highest price in world gold trading history.
Gold prices continue to increase sharply due to the need for a safe haven amid increasing tensions in the Middle East. The increase in strength of the USD and expectations of US interest rate cuts have almost no impact on the rise in gold prices.
Gold has increased steeply, reaching a new record, although at the same time some overbought conditions appeared, leading to a slight correction. However, gold's recent declines have been insignificant in nature, as potential investors are willing to wait for better entry points.
In addition, strong demand from retail investors and central banks around the world is also a factor that helps prolong the rise of this precious metal. The combination of factors has helped gold bullion prices increase nearly 10% from the beginning of the year until now.
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 01 - April 05]This week, international gold prices rose sharply from 2,163 USD/oz to 2,236 USD/oz, closing at 2,233 USD/oz. The increase is attributed to positive US economic growth in Q4 2023, although it slowed compared to previous quarters. Inflation is also decreasing, leading investors to anticipate interest rate cuts by the FED from June onwards.
The forecast for March 2024 non-agricultural employment (NFP) is 198,000 jobs, down from the previous period's 275,000. If this forecast is accurate, it will support the expectation of an interest rate cut by the FED, causing gold prices to rise. However, if NFP exceeds expectations, it could negatively impact gold prices. Additionally, the tone of the Fed Chairman's speech next week is uncertain.
Gold prices are expected to rise in the long term due to the slowdown of the US economy and the potential recession risks. The inverted bond yield curve indicates that the FED will likely implement three interest rate cuts this year. Central banks buying gold will also support its long-term prices. However, there is a short-term risk of profit-taking by investors, particularly ETFs.
📌According to technical analysis, gold prices are still in an uptrend and may reach $2,300/oz. If economic data is negative, prices may face profit-taking pressure with support levels at $2,150-2,100-2,080/oz. Trading plan: sell at $2,300 and buy at $2,150.
CL Chart Idea - 3/27/2024 - Bearish for next few days/weekOil Chart Idea - 3-27-2024
Bearish for next few days/week
IMO, It should retest the 0.382 (81.44 to 81.62) region and then goes back down to get liquidity from golden pocket (79.97 to 79.68).
Trading Plan for Friday, April 5th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 5th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Extreme volatility expected due to the recent selloff and NFP data release. Caution and adaptability are crucial.
Important Note: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) was released at 8:30 AM (EST). Expect outsized moves and volatility. Avoid predictions, and look for failed breakdowns as potential trade entry points.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5203, 5196, 5190, 5181-84 (major), 5177, 5171 (major), 5163, 5155 (major), 5146, 5142 (major), 5136, 5127 (major), 5115, 5102 (major).
Major Supports: 5171, 5142 (important for long positions), and 5102 (major).
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5212 (major), 5221 (major), 5230, 5235, 5240 (major), 5250, 5257, 5266 (major), 5274, 5279, 5288 (major), 5294 (major), 5302.
Major Resistances: 5257, 5266 (major), 5288 (major), and 5310 (major).
Trading Strategy
Knife-Catch Mode: Exercise extreme caution and use small position sizes. Longs ONLY at major supports, prioritizing 5181-84, 5171, and especially 5142. Consider longs after a failed breakdown and reclaim.
Bullish Reclaims: If bulls regain 5212, watch for acceptance above this level before adding longs. Target level-to-level profits.
Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of the 5235-40 zone as potential shorting areas, as it hasn't been fully retested from below.
Bull Case
Support Holds: Bulls need to reclaim 5241 to maintain control and set the low. Moves towards 5265 and 5288 are possible if this occurs. Short-term, reclaiming 5212 is essential.
Downside Magnet: If bulls make a strong move, 5143 is a significant downside target to watch.
Bear Case
Resistance Rejections: If bulls fail to retake 5212, expect a retest and rejection. This could open up a move towards 5194 for potential short entries (only if a bear flag establishes between 5212-5196).
News: Top Stories for April 5th, 2024
U.S. Jobs Report
Strong March jobs report with 303,000 positions added.
Unemployment rate down to 3.8% shows continued labor market resilience.
Impact on Fed's rate decisions uncertain, as wage growth easing.
Corporate News
Johnson & Johnson's $13.1 billion acquisition of Shockwave Medical announced.
Updates on Telecom Italia financing and China Oilfield Services operations.
Market Performance
S&P 500 hits all-time highs in March, strong Q1.
Nasdaq-100 projections point to good performance for 2024, with specific stock highlights.
Global Economic Indicators
Japan monitors volatile Yen movements.
Disappointing German factory data raises slowdown concerns.
India's strong economy leads to stable interest rates.
Energy Sector
Oil dividend stock recommendations for April.
Shell's gas output exceeds guidance.
Monetary Policy & Inflation
Fed remains inflation-focused, considering mid-2024 rate cut.
Developed market inflation expected to ease toward 2024 end.
Geopolitical Concerns
Questions emerge about reliance on U.S. nuclear capabilities.
U.S. strategic moves in managing China's growing power.
Technology & Disinformation
Chinese AI-powered campaigns targeting U.S. voters & Taiwan.
Market Outlook
J.P. Morgan sees a challenging 2024 ahead due to economic slowdown potential.
Overall positive 2024 outlook for U.S. stocks, experts discuss valuations and rate forecasts.
Reminder: Expect high volatility tomorrow due to NFP data and the recent sell-off. Adapt your trading size accordingly (1/4 size recommended). Focus on reacting to price action over any predictions.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bullish Continuation After Pullback 🛢️
Crude Oil set a new local higher high higher close on a daily,
violating a key horizontal resistance.
It opens a potential for a further growth to 89.0 resistance.
I would suggest looking for entries after a pullback.
The safest zone to watch is a demand zone based on a broken structure
and a trend line of a rising channel.
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ES_F Updated chart for 04.01 - 04.05 Didn't post this weeks prep since last weeks was still in play but wanted to post an updated chart for a better visual of PA around the levels and structure we have been forming since last week. As mentioned we had this area under the Mean to fill out once we had the supply to do so, it took some time but we created the Supply for it and now are trading around these areas under the Mean filling it out.
Some notes going into rest of the week :
5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support at VAL has been holding all night, no continuation towards the Edge unless we accept under and more selling comes in to push us that way. If selling is not strong we can stay balancing in this VAL area around 40 - 60s with 5264.75 - 60.75 being our Intrarange Resistance if we build up enough we could try to push over towards 5275.25 - 79.25 Level to fill some of that Gap we have created above but need to be careful as we still have T2 and Supply above that Mean area which tells us any pushes over 64.75 could be met with selling once buying runs out and price can keep coming back inside VAL. We are currently inside 5244.75 - 5295.50 Range with Supply above so if we do hold this range for now we can expect to trade around the lower parts of it while supply is coming out. As mentioned Size shorts will be covering down at VAL and under it which can hold us up until they are done and then we will see if there is still Supply to take us towards the lower Edge or selling runs out and we try to head back inside the Mean for Supply but this can take time to play out.
Levels to Watch :
Key Support 5249.75 - 44.75 Need acceptance under AND stronger volume to try and push to lower targets if no volume then can keep trading around it.
Lower areas just in case are 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75
Key Edge bottom and Supports 5207.50 // 5204.25 - 5199.75
Current Intrarange Resistance 5264.75 - 60.75
There is GAP above which means Supply, pushes over could be weak while still have selling but areas to watch above would be 5279.25 - 75.25
Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Price Action Analysis & Trading Plan 🛢
Detailed technical analysis for WTI Crude Oil.
Price action & important key levels.
Daily/4h/1h time frames analysis.
Bearish outlook explained.
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Trading Plan for Thursday, April 4th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 4th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as traders weigh consolidation signs against the underlying bullish trend.
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (consolidation phase, earnings, Fed uncertainty)
Key Supports
Support Levels: 5266, 5257(major), 5246, 5241 (major), 5235 (major), 5231, 5222 (major), 5212 (major), 5208, 5203, 5196, 5192 (major), 5181 (major), 5171, 5163 (major), 5155, 5148, 5137 (major), 5126 (major), 5120, 5115, 5109 (major), 5105, 5092-95 (major)
Key Resistances
Resistance Levels: 5274, 5279 (major), 5285 (major), 5294, 5298-5302 (major), 5308, 5315 (major), 5322, 5329 (major), 5341, 5347, 5354 (major), 5363 (major), 5372, 5380 (major), 5392, 5400, 5408 (major), 5416, 5423-26 (major), 5435, 5447 (major)
Trading Strategy
Consolidation Zone: We're likely in a consolidation phase between 5241 and 5279. This requires flexibility and adaptability – overly aggressive trading will likely be punished.
Supports: Look for potential long opportunities at 5257 (if today's high isn't broken), with stronger plays at 5246 or the 5241-35 zone. Be cautious with longs above these levels.
Resistances: Shorting resistance areas carries risk in a bull market. Consider shorts near the 5298-5302 zone, primarily for scalps.
Breakdown Watch: A decisive break below 5235 activates the bear case, triggering breakdown setups. Remember, breakdowns often trap traders – patience is key. Look for a failed breakdown (rejection and recovery), then consider shorts with level-to-level targets.
Bull Case
Holding Support: As long as 5241-35 holds, bulls maintain control. Consolidation between 5241-5279 likely, followed by a potential breakout above the 5298-5302 zone. This could lead to retesting 5315+.
Expect Consolidation: We may not immediately reach new all-time highs. Be prepared for an extended consolidation period before the next push higher.
Bear Case
Key Breakdown Level: A strong break below 5235 signals a bear move. Look for failed breakdowns and bounces as shorting opportunities. Exercise caution due to the potential for traps.
News: Top Stories for April 4th, 2024
Federal Reserve Outlook
Fed signals continued focus on rate stability rather than immediate cuts.
Concerns remain about the potential impact on equities in the long-term.
Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics
Bitcoin surpasses $70,000 with continued bullish momentum.
Approaching Bitcoin halving sparks interest in the sector.
Global Economic Indicators
Eurozone growth strengthens, while major economies like Germany & France lag.
Inflation remains a concern, influencing the potential for rate adjustments.
Financial Services Sector
Outlook remains positive for financial stocks, with specific recommendations.
Increased focus on weathering rising interest rates & long-term market resilience.
Additional Market Updates
Risk-off sentiment following natural disasters in Asia.
Eurozone inflation data signals the potential for ECB rate cuts.
Warnings & Opportunities
Analysts express caution regarding select financial stocks before a potential crisis.
Technology continues to disrupt finance, with evolving focus on AI and blockchain within the space.
Important Reminder: Despite the potential for short-term pullbacks, the main trend remains bullish. Consolidation is likely. Prioritize adaptability, risk management, and reacting to the price action rather than relying solely on predictions.
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series] 5 Ways that you can trade Forex!Hello Fellow traders!
Welcome to another bite sized Mini series on forex!
I hope that these info can open up your interest in forex trading and understand more about forex market!
Trading in the forex market offers various opportunities for investors to capitalize on currency price movements and profit from exchange rate fluctuations.
One of the most common ways to trade forex is through the spot forex market , where currencies are traded for immediate delivery at the current market price. Spot forex trading involves buying one currency while simultaneously selling another, with the aim of profiting from changes in exchange rates.
Another popular method of trading forex is through currency futures , which are standardized contracts traded on regulated exchanges. Currency futures allow traders to speculate on the future price of a currency pair and hedge against currency risk (if any). These contracts have predetermined expiration dates and are settled at a future date based on the difference between the contract price and the market price.
Thirdly, venturing elsewhere , we can take a look at Currency Options !
Currency options provide traders with the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a currency pair at a predetermined price within a specified period. Options offer flexibility and limited risk, making them attractive for traders seeking to manage their exposure to currency fluctuations. Options can be used for hedging purposes or to speculate on future price movements.
Forex spot betting , also known as spread betting, is a derivative product that allows traders to speculate on currency price movements without owning the underlying asset. Instead of trading actual currencies, traders place bets on whether the price of a currency pair will rise or fall within a certain time frame. Spread betting offers tax advantages in some jurisdictions and allows traders to leverage their positions.
In addition to these methods, forex trading can also involve other financial instruments such as contracts for difference (CFDs) , which allow traders to profit from price movements without owning the underlying asset. CFDs offer leverage and the ability to trade on margin, enabling traders to amplify their returns but also increasing their risk exposure.
Overall, trading in the forex market offers a diverse range of opportunities for investors, with various instruments and strategies available to suit different trading styles and risk preferences. Whether trading spot forex, currency futures, options, or derivatives like CFDs and spread betting, traders should conduct thorough research, develop a solid trading plan, and employ risk management techniques to enhance their chances of success in the forex market.
Thank you for your time and hope you have enjoyed the content and if you do so please leave a thumbs up or a comment if you have any suggestions to make this better!
Do check out the other links if you missed out on the other parts of this Forex Mini Series i put up for all (FREE)!
GOLD solid gains, extending positive momentumOANDA:XAUUSD Q2 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Gold kicked off the first quarter of 2024 with solid gains, extending the positive momentum established in the latter part of 2023. During this upturn, XAU/USD soared to new all-time highs, decisively breaking past the $2,150 mark, and eventually reaching a peak of $2,235.
While bullion’s technical profile continues to be bullish, with a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, caution is advised, with the 10-week RSI indicator signaling possible overbought conditions. When markets become overextended in a short period of time, corrective pullbacks often follow, even if they turn out to be temporary or relatively minor.
In the event of a bearish shift, support can be identified at $2,145, followed by $2,070, as displayed in the weekly chart attached. Bulls will need to vigorously defend this technical floor; failure to do so may result in a retracement towards the 200-day simple moving average near $1,985. Further down, attention will turn to channel support at $1,920, then to $1,810.
On the other hand, if the bulls maintain control of the steering wheel and look to push prices higher in the coming days and weeks, a successful breakout could add further bullish pressure, paving the way for a move towards resistance. channel at $2,255.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 3rd, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 3rd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery after pullback in a strong uptrend.
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery, earnings season, potential FOMC pivot implications)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5245-5242 (major), 5235, 5232 (major), 5219, 5210-12 (major), 5203 (major), 5190, 5183, 5175-77 (major), 5171, 5162, 5155 (major), 5147, 5142, 5134-36 (major), 5126 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5259, 5267-69 (major), 5274, 5282-84 (major), 5293, 5300(major), 5307 (major), 5311, 5315 (major), 5321, 5329-33 (major), 5342, 5345 (major), 5352, 5357 (major), 5364, 5370 (major), 5380-82 (major), 5389, 5400 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Support & Resistance: Focus on potential bounces at support levels, notably 5242-5245 (triangle backtest) and the major support zones. Look for short opportunities at resistance levels, especially 5267-69 and 5282-84.
Knife Catch Mode: If sharp declines continue, be extremely cautious with longs, prioritizing major support levels only and following your rigorous knife-catching strategy.
Long Opportunities: Exercise patience if considering longs. Bids at 5242-45, with more confidence after a failed breakdown and reclaim, are possible. Consider potential adds above 5255.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting within the strong uptrend carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Target level-to-level profits.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action.
Bull Case
Triangle Backtest Hold: A successful hold of the 5242-45 triangle backtest, particularly if 5255 can be reclaimed, would signal potential for a rebound. This could lead to retests of 5267, a basing period, followed by a test of 5282-84, and potentially a move back toward 5300-07.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5232 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. First significant short target is likely around 5219.
News: Top Stories for April 3rd, 2024
Fed Policy Outlook:
Fed's report highlights financial sector vulnerabilities.
Markets expect a potential first interest rate cut in June, with an April cut possible.
Recent inflation data has moderated expectations for rapid easing of monetary policy.
Stock Market Performance:
S&P 500 reached new all-time highs in March, ending with its best first quarter since 2019.
Index gained 3.2% in March and is up 10.6% year-to-date.
April historically strong for the S&P 500, investors remain optimistic.
Economic Indicators:
Fourth-quarter GDP growth of 3.4% indicates resilience to rate hikes.
Bond market predicts the Fed will hold rates near-term, with potential cuts by June.
Global Developments:
China's service economy posts 15th consecutive month of growth, signaling recovery.
Cooling Eurozone inflation opens the door for potential rate cuts by the ECB.
Corporate News:
Agilent Technologies highlights new cancer research and diagnostics solutions.
Endeavor Group Holdings acquired by Silver Lake in a $13 billion deal, the largest in the media and entertainment sector.
Investment Considerations:
Earnings season may bring caution despite overall bullish market sentiment.
Potential pullbacks would be normal within the larger uptrend.
Climate Risk & Regulation:
The U.S. Federal Reserve has reportedly blocked a proposal to focus global banking regulations on climate risk.
Cryptocurrency & Blockchain:
Interest in cryptocurrency and blockchain technology remains high, with discussions on top investment opportunities and sector-wide adoption.
Remember: The market is reacting to a key support test within a strong uptrend. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
GOLD skyrocketed, the world reached a new peakThe world gold spot price is around 2,233 USD/ounce, a spike of 42 USD/ounce compared to the transaction at the same time yesterday morning. Closing last night's session, the world gold spot price in the US market stood at 2,233 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of more than 38 USD/ounce, equivalent to an increase of 1.74% compared to the previous session's close.
Yesterday, the global financial market received more positive economic information in the US, the USD increased well but the price of gold - a capital security asset still increased too strongly to an unprecedented high.
Specifically, the US announced that its gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 3.4% over the same period, higher than the previous forecast of 3.2%. First-time applications for unemployment benefits in the US last week were at 210,000 applications, lower than the 212,000 applications forecast previously and last week.
PCE price is an index measuring the price change of consumer goods and services exchanged in the US economy in the fourth quarter of 2023, increasing by 1.8% over the same period, much lower than the level achieved in the previous quarter. 2.6%.
Thus, closing data on US gross domestic product increased compared to the same period last year, initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased, showing that the US economy is recovering positively. The decrease in PCE prices shows that the price of personal consumption goods has decreased, which will contribute to reducing inflation in the US.
According to market rules, the USD enjoyed a very good increase in the session last night - early this morning. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the greenback compared to 6 major currencies, increased quite well by 0.28% to 104,217 points.
Normally, positive economic information and the USD will cause gold prices to drop sharply. However, investors believe that when factors related to inflation decline deeply, such as PCE, it will promote the process of reducing interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) soon.
Tonight, the US will announce the PCE price index for February. Current forecasts are that all indicators of PCE in February are higher than last month. In particular, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech. Investors will look for more clues about when to cut interest rates, as well as the health of the US economy from Mr. Jerome Powell.
Currently, 71% of market forecasts are that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in a series of high interest rate days in June this year. Experts say that if the PCE price index falls, it could be gold. prices will increase sharply. Because it is predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates soon to support the economy. If PCE increases, the Fed may delay cutting interest rates after June as forecast.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Important Key Levels 🛢️
Here is my latest structure analysis and important key levels to watch on WTI Crude Oil.
Resistance 1: 85.20 - 85.85 area
Resistance 2: 89.10 - 89.90 area
Resistance 3: 93.75 - 95.00 area
Support 1: 82.50 - 83.10 area
Support 2: 80.00 - 80.60 area
Support 3: 76.80 - 77.80 area
Support 4: 75.50 - 76.20 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 2nd, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 2nd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, tactical trading within a range, price discovery in the context of a strong uptrend.
Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery in a new zone, potential chop)
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5294, 5286 (major), 5278-80 (major), 5274, 5267 (major), 5262, 5256, 5249, 5243-46 (major), 5235, 5230, 5225 (major), 5221, 5213-15 (major), 5207, 5203, 5191-95 (major), 5181, 5177, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5150-55 (major)
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5300-02 (major), 5307 (major), 5311, 5315 (major), 5321, 5328 (major), 5337 (major), 5340, 5348, 5353 (major), 5359, 5363-66 (major), 5374, 5379, 5390 (major), 5398, 5403-05 (major), 5413, 5417, 5422, 5426, 5445 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Tactical Range Trading: The market appears to be in a consolidation range between 5267-5316. Focus on level-to-level trades, taking profits regularly, and adapting quickly to changing price action.
Failed Breakout: The failure of the breakout above last week's high suggests a period of range-bound trading or a potential dip before resuming the uptrend. Trade accordingly.
Long Opportunities: Exercise caution and consider bids at 5286, with preference for testing 5278-80 support and reclaiming today's low. Partial longs at the 5267 support are an option, with more on a potential reclaim. Below 5262, be more selective with entries, favoring major levels.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting still carries significant risk within the strong uptrend context. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Target level-to-level profits.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action.
Bull Case
Range Trading: ES could consolidate within the 5267-5316 range, building out structure before continuing the upward move towards 5328, 5337, then 5366. Level-to-level trading is key.
Direct Move Higher: A decisive hold of 5285 could lead to a direct rally back to 5316, with re-tests of 5300 possible. Longs above 5300 with acceptance would be viable.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5267 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. First significant short target is 5262.
News: Top Stories for April 2nd, 2024
Stock Market Gains: Review the positive Q1 performance of global stock markets, focusing on the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and MSCI EAFE. Discuss the bond market's challenges.
Cryptocurrency Updates: Explore the anticipation surrounding the Bitcoin Cash halving and the upcoming Bitcoin halving, their historical price impact, and the overall sentiment in the crypto markets.
Regulatory Scrutiny: Examine the ongoing investigation of BlackRock and Vanguard over their stakes in American banks and the implications for passive investing regulations.
Economic Signals and Monetary Policies: Analyze the strong U.S. manufacturing report, its inflationary implications, and the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Discuss China's possible monetary policy expansion.
IPO Market and Earnings Outlook: Highlight the upcoming IPOs and the start of the Q1 earnings season. Discuss expectations for financial results and their potential insights into the overall economic outlook.
FOMC Meeting: Emphasize the importance of the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential to shed light on the Fed's plans for interest rate cuts.
International Economic Trends: Cover Japan's economic recovery, rising interest rates, inflation in South Korea, and Australia's balanced economic risks.
Commodity Market Movements: Examine the factors influencing the palm oil market and OPEC+ output policy discussions.
Remember: The market is in a range-bound phase within a larger uptrend. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
