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GOLD Fed in spotlight – Bullish explosion or crash ahead?OANDA:XAUUSD OUTLOOK - Gold prices retreated this week but are still up more than 5% in March - The Fed’s monetary policy announcement will take center stage in the coming week Gold prices (XAU/USD) fell 1.05% this week to $2,155 due to higher U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. However, gold has maintained strong bullish momentum in March, with a gain of around 5.5% and recent all-time highs. Earlier this month, gold prices surged as investors anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The rally further intensified after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that policymakers were close to gaining confidence in the inflation outlook. However, recent consumer price data suggests that progress on disinflation may be stalling or reversing, causing a shift in the market sentiment for gold. With inflation risks emerging and reflected in recent CPI and PPI reports, the central bank may adopt a more cautious stance, indicating the need for patience in removing policy measures. This could result in fewer rate cuts than initially expected. The Federal Reserve's plans will be clarified next week when they announce their March decision. While policy settings are anticipated to remain unchanged, there could be revised guidance and forecasts based on new macroeconomic information, as data-dependency is a key principle. In the latest Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed hinted that it would deliver 75 basis points of easing this year and market pricing has converged to this estimate of late. If policymakers were to indicate an intention to deliver fewer cuts than what’s currently discounted, we could see bond yields and the U.S. dollar push higher. This should be bearish for gold prices. OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices fell this week, but managed to hold above support at $2,150. Bulls must actively protect this technical zone to prevent an escalation of selling pressure; failure to do so may trigger a pullback towards $2,085. In case of further weakness, the spotlight will be on $2,065. On the flip side, if buyers regain decisive control of the market and spark a bullish reversal from the metal’s current position, the first obstacle lies at the record peak established earlier this month at $2,195. Further upward movement will draw attention to trendline resistance near $2,205. Resistance: 2160 - 2165 - 2173 Support: 2146 - 2135 - 2125 - 2100
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 18 - March 22]After increasing to 2,195 USD/oz last week, this week's gold price continuously adjusted from 2,188 USD/oz at one point to 2,150 USD/oz and closed at 2,156 USD/oz. Gold prices have increased sharply in recent times mainly due to purchases by central banks and investors buying gold in anticipation of the FED reducing interest rates next June. Therefore, the rising inflation data has reduced this expectation, causing them to sell gold to take profits to hedge against risks. Next week will be a big challenge for gold prices when the FED will meet to discuss monetary policy and make economic forecasts. Any rhetoric to push back interest rate cuts could create some selling pressure on gold prices next week. Although at next week's meeting, the FED may not continue to postpone the interest rate cut date beyond June, it may be difficult for gold prices to avoid continued adjustment pressure due to the possibility of ETFs. will continue to sell gold, while investors also make similar moves to hedge against risks before the FED meeting. 📌Technically, on the D1 technical analysis chart, the price is starting to show signs of a correction, and this correction may find its way back to the support area of 2090-2100, around the 50 Fib mark of the Fib Retracement, also around moving average EMA34 D1. The trading plan for next week will consider selling around 2200, buying around 2090.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Thursday, March 21st, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, March 21st, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery after breakout Weekly Volatility Risk: High (potentially elevated due to price discovery post-breakout) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5275-80 (major), 5266-68, 5260, 5251 (major), 5246, 5236, 5231, 5221-26 (major), 5217, 5212 (major), 5200-02 (major), 5196, 5189-91 (major) ,5178, 5169 (major), 5162, 5155 (major), 5147, 5136 (major), 5126-29 (major), 5116, 5109, 5103 (major), 5095, 5091, 5079-82 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5285, 5295-5300 (major), 5315 (major), 5330 (major), 5339, 5345, 5352 5360, 5369, 5376-81 (major), 5389, 5405, 5423, 5428-32 (major) Trading Strategy: Price Discovery Mode Post-Breakout Caution: The parabolic rally yesterday makes today a less favorable environment for aggressive trading. Exercise caution, as setups are likely to be less reliable. Prioritize capital preservation. Long Opportunities: Watch for potential long entries at 5275-80 or after a dip and reclaim (to 5273 or 5268). Target a retest of the 5295 resistance if we haven't tagged it yet. The backtest of the triangle breakout zone at 5251-46 is interesting but carries more risk. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the breakout. Bull Case Breakout Continuation: The triangle breakout, as long as the 5251-47 zone holds, targets a move towards 5295-5300, then 5315 and potentially up to 5330. Basing and Building: Bulls could base above 5275 after a bullish leg, creating the potential for further upside moves. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5251-47 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. News: Top Stories for March 21st, 2024 Fed Rate Decision: Fed holds rates steady and projects three cuts this year. March 2024 Market Outlook: Analysts provide insights and forecasts on the global economy, equities, interest rates, and upcoming financial events. Corporate Earnings Updates: Companies like Borregaard ASA and Affimed N.V. release their financial reports, detailing performance and future guidance. Bank of America Reporting Schedule: Investors have access to the financial reporting dates for Bank of America in 2024. AI and Market Sentiment Some analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally and the extent to which it reflects actual revenue growth. Global Economic Developments: Central banks in Switzerland and Russia make interest rate adjustments, impacting currency markets. Financial Trends for 2024: Focus on sustainable investing, digital assets, AI and automation, cybersecurity, and financial literacy. Remember: The market is undergoing price discovery after the breakout. Be adaptable, manage risk, and react to price action rather than predicting.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
GOLD had its first weekly decline in 4 weeksGold prices stabilized on Friday (March 15) but recorded their first weekly decline in four weeks, as investors lowered expectations for US interest rate cuts after data this week showed pressure. price increases. At the end of the trading session on March 15, the spot gold contract was almost flat at 2,159.99 USD/oz. This week, the gold contract lost 0.8%, recording the first weekly decline since mid-February 2024, after reaching a record high of 2,194.99 USD/oz last week. Gold futures contracts retreated 0.3% to 2,161.5 USD/oz. This week's data shows that CPI consumer prices in the US increased stronger than forecast in February and PPI producer prices also show that inflation is somewhat stable. Gold is already pricing in any positive boost it can get from expectations that interest rates will fall… if inflation starts to rise again, that means policymakers will have to maintain Tighter monetary policy for longer periods of time. Higher-than-expected inflation maintains pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates high, thereby putting pressure on gold. Non-yielding precious metals are also used as an inflation hedge. The USD index saw its strongest weekly increase since mid-January 2024, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 20th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 20th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Extremely cautious ahead of FOMC decision Weekly Volatility Risk: Extremely High (FOMC) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5236, 5230, 5220-17 (major), 5212, 5209 (major), 5202, 5196, 5192 (major), 5184, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5155-57 (major), 5147, 5137 (major), 5126 (major), 5117, 5100-03 (major), 5091, 5075-80 (major), 5069, 5056 (major), 5050, 5043 (major), 5038, 5032, 5020-25 (major), 5014, 5010 (major), 5000, 4995 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5246-49 (major), 5258, 5265, 5276-80 (major), 5295-5300 (major), 5308 (major), 5317, 5323 (major), 5330, 5338, 5352, 5358, 5365-70 (major), 5384, 5395, 5406-11 (major) Trading Strategy: FOMC Extreme Caution FOMC Volatility: The FOMC decision is the dominant factor today. Expect unpredictable market swings and heightened volatility. Prioritize capital preservation above all else. Triangle Pattern: The triangle pattern with resistance at 5246-50 and support around 5184 remains in play. FOMC is likely to trigger a breakout or breakdown. Long Opportunities: (High Risk) FOMC-related dips present potential long opportunities, but only with extremely cautious sizing. Consider targeting 5220-17 first, and even then, only if it shows a failed breakdown and reclaim. In a severe melt-down scenario, watch for failed breakdown setups around major supports. Short Opportunities: (High Risk) Counter-trend shorting on FOMC days is extremely risky. If considering shorts, the 5295-5300 zone, after a strong move up, could be one potential area. Focus on Reactions: Don't predict FOMC outcomes, focus on reacting to price action post-decision. Bull Case Triangle Breakout: A decisive breakout above the triangle resistance at 5246-50 could lead to targets at 5258, 5276-80, and then the 5295-300 zone. Be wary of traps on any strong moves post-FOMC. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below the triangle support at 5184 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise extreme caution and patience in a fast-moving market. News: Top Stories for March 20th, 2024 FOMC Decision: The Federal Reserve concludes its March meeting, with a decision on interest rates expected at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell. Focus is on the Fed's outlook, updated economic projections, and any guidance on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts and how data will determine those decisions. Market Volatility: Expect unpredictable market swings around the FOMC decision, with the potential for large gains or losses. Economic Outlook: Recent economic indicators, the latest CPI figures, and concerns about recession risks will be closely watched alongside the Fed's announcements and commentary. Intel Investment Boost: Intel receives a major investment, boosting the company and its stock. EU Regulatory Vote Delayed: The EU delays the vote on a nature restoration law due to concerns and farmer protests. Remember: The FOMC decision has the potential to cause extreme market volatility, whipsaws are likely. Be extremely adaptable, prioritize capital preservation, and focus on managing risk today above all else.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Lower Canadian CPI brings interest rate cut closerCANADIAN CPI, OANDA:USDCAD ANALYSIS - Canadian inflation slows more than expected in February – raising USD/CAD - Markets bring a potential BoC cut closer while delaying the onset of Fed cuts - USD/CAD’s bullish response tapered off but pair heads for channel resistance CANADIAN INFLATION SLOWS MORE THAN EXPECTED IN FEBRUARY – RAISING USD/CAD Canadian inflation, both core and headline measures, came in lower than last month's figures. CPI was well below the estimated 3.1% at 2.8%. The core measure reached lows not seen in over two years, putting pressure on the Bank of Canada to consider loosening financial conditions. In comparison to countries with inflation rates of 8% or higher, Canada stands out as a standout performer, as shown in the graph below. Annual Percentage Change in Inflation (CPI) OANDA:USDCAD BULLISH RESPONSE TAPERED OFF BUT PAIR HEADS FOR CHANNEL RESISTANCE USD/CAD continued its bullish momentum after softer inflation data but lost some steam during the New York session. The current upward move was triggered by a bounce off channel support at 1.3420, breaking above the 200-day simple moving average and reaching 1.3500. 1.3500 has previously acted as both support and resistance since October 2022. The current trend aims to test channel resistance, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the major 2020-2022 move (1.3651). However, today's significant upper wick suggests that bulls may need to regroup before pushing higher. Canada has been successful in keeping inflation within the targeted range of 1-3% set by the Bank. Based on implied probabilities from rate markets, the Bank of Canada may need to prepare for a rate cut in June. There is a 62% chance of a cut at that time. The Canadian dollar may face pressure due to consistently low inflation, which could lead to easing monetary policy. On the other hand, market estimates for when the Fed may cut interest rates have been pushed back from June to July. This delay in monetary easing supports the US dollar, as it is expected to have a higher interest rate compared to most G7 currencies for a little longer.
by Xayah_trading
S&P500 Futures Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZOne Pro & UMVD Indicators. * Trend is Based on TrapZone Color * Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves. * Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand -------------------- 1-15-2024 Downtrend with UMVD showing Divergence. Price sliding as US MSI also points to weakening in the market. Hold On to You Hats I Say :)
CME_MINI:MES1!
by SnowflakeTrader
NASDAQ Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & Unusual Market Volume Detector (UMVD) Indicators. * Trend is Based on TrapZone Color * Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves. * Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand -------------------- 1-15-2024 Up trend with GREEN TrapZone but RED UMVD at the moment causing price to move sideways.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by SnowflakeTrader
BANKNIFTY Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & Unusual Market Volume Detector (UMVD) Indicators. * Trend is Based on TrapZone Color * Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves. * Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand -------------------- 1-15-2024 UP trend with Green TrapZone and UMVD. Price has not retraced to TrapZone yet. Strong momentum up.
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!
by SnowflakeTrader
Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 19th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 19th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious ahead of FOMC decision Weekly Volatility Risk: High (amplified by FOMC) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5209, 5203 (major), 5191, 5182-77 (major support/triangle), 5171, 5165, 5157-55 (major), 5147, 5136, 5124-26 (major), 5115 (major), 5109, 5103, 5095 (major), 5087, 5083 (major), 5076 (major), 5072, 5066, 5060, 5055 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5215-20 (major), 5230, 5236 (major), 5246-50 (major - triangle resistance), 5257, 5264, 5270, 5275-77 (major), 5283, 5295-5300 (major), 5306, 5313 (major), 5326, 5333, 5340, 5355, 5362-66 (major), 5370, 5377, 5385, 5395 (major), 5400-5405 (major) Trading Strategy: FOMC Focus Holding Pattern: The market might be on hold until the FOMC announcement, so pre-announcement moves may lack conviction. Triangle Trading: The triangle setup with resistance at 5246-50 and support around 5182-77 defines the range for today. Profit-taking at each end of the range is advisable. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5203 (especially if it's a major support test). Below that, interest in longs arises at the triangle support (5182-77). Avoid aggressive longs below 5182-77 with more substantial sell-offs possible. Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Watch for short entries on failed breakdowns or bounces off resistance. FOMC Volatility: Expect increased volatility during and after the FOMC announcement. Bull Case Triangle Support: Bulls need to defend the triangle support at 5182-77. Holding above this level allows for a potential retest of 5245-50 resistance within the triangle. Building a Base: Overnight basing below 5215-20 and above 5202/5209 support suggests potential for an upside move. Breakout Potential: A decisive breakout above the triangle resistance at 5246-50, likely post-FOMC, could lead to targets at 5275-77 and then the 5295-5300 zone. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below the triangle support at 5182-77 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Cascading Sell-off: If 5202 support fails, a deeper test of the triangle support is possible, potentially leading to a more severe correction. News: Top Stories for March 19th, 2024 FOMC Decision: The Federal Reserve concludes its March meeting, with a decision on interest rates expected at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell. Focus is on the Fed's outlook, dot plot projections, and any hints on the timing of potential rate cuts Banking Concerns: Economists warn of a potential new banking crisis triggered by the end of the Federal Reserve's BTFP program and potential geopolitical disruptions to credit markets. Economic Outlook: Recent economic indicators suggest a mixed picture. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was impressive, while the Conference Board's leading economic index signals a potential slowdown. Market Performance: Market volatility could spike around the FOMC decision. Long-term investors are focused on the Fed's interest rate path and its impact on earnings and valuations. Global Trends: The end of the negative interest rate era, the decline in North American Pay TV subscribers, and strategic CFO priorities highlight key global shifts. Remember: The FOMC decision has the potential to cause significant market volatility. Be prepared to adapt your trading strategy accordingly, prioritize capital preservation, and focus on managing risk.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Gold price coils furtherOANDA:XAUUSD Analysis and Chart - Gold trading on either side of $2,165/oz. but a break may be near. The latest US PPI data – wholesale inflation - came in above market expectations, and last month’s print, but the dollar and US rate cut forecasts, remain little changed. US Retail Sales in February picked up, turning positive, but again missed market forecasts. With the greenback barely moving, gold has found it difficult to make a move, one way or the other. This period of consolidation is starting to look like a new bullish pennant formation, although it will need another couple of candles to see if this plays out. If this pattern is formed, gold is likely to push further ahead and make a fresh record high. Support is seen at $2,148/oz. ahead of $2,128/oz. Retail trader data show 40.95% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.44 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.53% higher than yesterday and 2.21% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.91% higher than yesterday and 6.62% higher than last week. On the weekly timeframe, XAUUSD is holding the ascending channel and approaching the resistance zone at 2280, which coincides with the channel's upper limit and the 100% Fibonacci extension. If XAUUSD sustains above the 2070 support zone, further upside to the 2280 Resistance Zone is possible. Conversely, a break below the 2070 support could prompt a further decline towards the 1950 support, coinciding with the lower boundary of the channel. Resistance: 2170 - 2175 - 2185 Support: 2146 - 2135 - 2125
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Trading Plan for Monday, March 18th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, March 18th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5171-73 (major), 5167, 5162, 5152-55 (major), 5147, 5136, 5127 (major), 5115 (major), 5109, 5104, 5092 (major), 5083 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5181, 5191, 5202 (major), 5207, 5213 (major), 5220-24 (major), 5230, 5236, 5246-51 (major), 5260, 5267 (major), 5280, 5285, 5294 (major), 5300, 5304 (major), 5315, 5320-22 (major), 5332, 5340, 5345, 5354-57 (major) Trading Strategy: Pivot Point: The 5171-73 support (white trendline) is crucial. A potential bounce is possible, but exercise caution as significant selling pressure could develop if this level fails. Long Opportunities: Look for buying opportunities on a bounce or reclaim of 5171-73. The 5152-55 major support is the last line of defense for bulls. Avoid aggressive longs below that level. Look for entries around 5115 or 5127 only if they show strong signs of a rebound. Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Watch for short entries on failed breakdowns or bounces off resistance. Knife Catching Caution: Avoid impulsive buys deep into red candles on violent sell-offs. Treat them as short-term, smaller position trades. Bull Case Support Defense: Bulls need to hold the 5171-73 trendline, with ideally no further tests. A bounce here, particularly if it extends to the 5152-55 zone, provides a low-risk entry for a move back towards resistance at 5202/5207. Building a Base: Overnight basing below 5191 and above the 5170s support suggests potential upside for a move to 5202/5207. Path to New Highs: A successful defense of the trendline and subsequent move through resistance zones could lead to fresh all-time highs. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5171 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience here as breakdowns are often tricky and require skilled execution. Cascading Sell-off: If the 5152-55 major support fails, a deeper, more severe correction is possible. News: Top Stories for March 18th, 2024 Taiwan's Defense Strategy: Taiwan weighs investing in smaller, cheaper weaponry to counter potential invasion threats from China. Goldman Sachs Departure: The exit of a senior executive at Goldman Sachs signals potential internal shifts within the company. Middle East Conflict: Israel's raid on a hospital in Gaza risks escalating tensions in the region. Retail Challenges: Joann's bankruptcy highlights the ongoing difficulties faced by traditional retailers in the current consumer landscape. European Defense Stocks: The value of European defense stocks is fluctuating based on political rhetoric and policy shifts. FedEx-Amazon Partnership: Possible collaboration under discussion could reshape logistics and e-commerce dynamics. Fed Policy Outlook: The Federal Reserve's latest report highlights potential vulnerabilities due to leverage and high stock valuations. No rate cuts are expected until the Fed is confident inflation is under control. Bank Regulation Debate: A year after financial instability, regulators prepare new rules while facing industry criticism. Labor Market Update: Continued strength in the US job market puts factors into play the Fed will consider in its interest rate decisions. Inflation and Consumer Spending: The paradox of resilient consumer spending despite high inflation is a key focus of economists and policymakers. Additional Factors: Keep an eye on Nvidia's GTC Conference, updates on Indian markets, scrutiny of Adani Group, and shifts in startup financing trends. Remember: Prioritize capital preservation during this time of uncertainty. Be prepared for potential volatility and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
📈LTC Analysis: Short Position Opportunity in Volatile Market🔥🔍Today, we are focusing on analyzing LTC for future prospects. It's worth noting that it's Monday, typically associated with lower market volume and increased market volatility. 🔒On the 4-hour timeframe, we find ourselves within a trading range, with the resistance ceiling at $94.34 and the support floor at $82.97. A recent rejection from the upper boundary suggests that sellers have more strength compared to buyers. Thus, initiating a short position could be a more secure move. 📉In case the $82.97 support level is breached, entering a short position with a target price of $75.98, accompanied by a well-defined stop-loss, could offer a minimum risk-reward ratio of 2. 💎The SMA7 indicator has converged with the price, potentially signaling further downward momentum. If the SMA7 fails to maintain the trend, we'll wait for confirmation from the SMA25. Failure on both indicators may lead to a sideways movement, possibly retesting the upper boundary of the trading range. 📊In the recent downtrend, the volume of red candles has diminished compared to the initial wave. While this could be attributed to the typically lower trading activity on Sundays, a resurgence in volume from tomorrow onwards is essential. Failure to observe increased volume could indicate weakness in the trend. 💥 Additionally, the RSI oscillator provides a critical support level at 32.64. Simultaneous breach of the $82.97 support level and the RSI support could serve as another confirmation for a short position. ❌In conclusion, vigilance is paramount today. If the short position trigger is breached or if setting a large stop-loss to avoid unnecessary risk or setting too small a stop-loss to quickly hit the target, it's crucial to maintain a balanced approach. 🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
Short
by itsparham96