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GBPUSD accelerated to the upside this past weekGBPUSD accelerated to the upside this past week, briefly reaching its highest level in nearly two months at one point before the weekend. If the rally continues and gains momentum in the coming sessions, resistance is likely to appear at 1.2720, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 decline. Further strength could then direct focus toward the 1.2800 mark. On the flip side, if the upward impetus fades and sellers regain control of the market, confluence support extending from 1.2615 to 1.2585 could offer stability in case of a pullback. If tested, traders should watch closely for price reaction, keeping in mind that a breakdown could give way to a move towards the 200-day simple moving average hovering around 1.2540.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD rallied early on TuesdayGBP/USD rallied early on Tuesday, briefly reaching its highest point since March 21, but gains were short-lived as sellers quickly pushed the pair down from the psychological 1.2800 level, driving it towards 1.2755. If this ceiling holds in the near term, bulls may start bailing, creating the right conditions for a move toward 1.2700. Further weakness could shift focus to 1.2635. Conversely, if buyers manage to reclaim dominance in the coming days and take out resistance at 1.2800, the upward momentum could intensify, propelling GBP/USD towards 1.2895 – the March peak. While overcoming this ceiling might be difficult, it is still feasible. On that note, upside clearance of this barrier could result in a rally towards the 1.3000 handle.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD holds firm despite hawkish FOMC minutesUK inflation data for April showed a slower-than-expected decrease in consumer inflation. However, services inflation, which has been persistently high, exceeded the estimated level predicted by analysts and economists. This unexpected outcome caused a delay in the expected rate cut from August to November, with only one rate cut now anticipated for this year. As a result, the pound and Gilt yields increased, leading to a rise in GBP/USD. GBP/USD briefly rose above 1.2736 but was pulled back down by hawkish FOMC minutes. It is now trading higher again, showing resilience around the 1.2736 level. With both the BoE and Fed leaning towards a more hawkish stance, a significant move may be challenging without another catalyst. The upcoming US PCE data at the end of next week could provide that catalyst. For now, the pound is pushing higher.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD also edged down on ThursdayGBPUSD also edged down on Thursday, but managed to stabilize around the 1.2515/1.2500 range. Bulls must strive to maintain prices above this support region to prevent sentiment towards the pound from deteriorating; otherwise, sellers could seize the opportunity to launch a bearish assault on 1.2430. On the other hand, if buyers make a new appearance and propel prices higher, resistance emerges at 1.2550, where the 200-day simple moving average converges with a short-term descending trendline. Moving further up, attention will be focused on Fibonacci resistance at 1.2590, followed by 1.2620.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD is experiencing bearish conditions due to a dovish BoEBritish private sector business activity grew in June at its slowest pace since November last year, according to the latest S&P Global Flash UK PMI report. According to Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global, the slowdown partly “reflects the uncertainty surrounding the business environment in the run-up to the general election.” UK service sector inflation remains high “still evident in the survey, but will at least ease from the current 5.7% pace in the coming months.” UK government bond yields continue to fall, boosted by dovish moves by the Bank of England. Financial markets are currently pricing in a 50/50 chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the BoE's monetary policy meeting in August and a total cut of just under 50 basis points this year. On the daily chart, OANDA:GBPUSD has technical conditions that support the possibility of a bearish price with pressure from the newly formed short-term price channel, the price channel and the break below the price channel indicate an uptrend for GBP/ The USD is no longer technically functional. Additionally, GBP/USD is also under pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21), along with the RSI pointing down but still quite far from the oversold area. This shows that there is still a lot of room for technical downside for GBP/USD. With price activity below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement and within the price channel, GBP/USD is expected to decline further in the near term with a short-term target level of around 1.25956 price points of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. In the short term, technical conditions lean bearish for GBP/USD and technical levels are in focus again as follows. Support: 1.25956 Resistance: 1.26650 – 1.27400
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD attempts to hold 1.0700OANDA:EURUSD ANALYSIS - Focus returns to Europe and France in particular in the lead up to the elections - Will the ECB step in to calm widening bond spreads considering Frances debt load? - EUR/USD fails to capitalize on Mondays reprieve – downside risks remain WILL THE ECB STEP IN TO CALM WIDENING BOND SPREADS CONSIDERING FRANCE'S DEBT LOAD? With the focus shifting back to Europe, particularly France, the campaign for the upcoming parliamentary elections is in full swing. The rising popularity of Marine Le Pen's National Rally party has concerned markets, as they see it as a potential unpredictable force impacting European bond markets. The risk premium applied to riskier nations like Italy and France is reflected in the French-German spreads, while investors have turned to safer German bonds. Keep an eye on any sell-off in periphery nations' bonds as it could lead to a weaker euro when France goes to vote. The ECB's Chief Economist, Philip Lane, described the recent bond market movement as "repricing" and not chaotic. The ECB introduced a new tool to address any potential fragmentation in the bond market in 2022, which involves purchasing bonds from qualifying member states if borrowing costs become uncontrollable. France's debt to GDP ratio is currently above the EU's recommended 60%, which may complicate their eligibility for assistance if spreads get out of control. OANDA:EURUSD ATTEMPTS TO HOLD 1.0700 BUT DOWNSIDE RISKS REMAIN On Monday, the pair attempted to break through the 1.0700 level, but concerns about momentum and downside risks persist. The price is currently trading below the 200 simple moving average and is likely to retest 1.0700. Key support levels are at 1.0600 and potentially even 1.0450, which was the low point of the major decline in 2023. EU inflation data has been declining despite a slight increase in May. The ECB is considering another interest rate cut. Today, ZEW economic sentiment fell short of expectations at 47.5 (slightly better than last month's 47.1). Inflation expectations have increased due to the slightly higher May figures.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD ticked up on TuesdayEURUSD ticked up on Tuesday but failed to decisively push past confluence resistance between 1.0865 and 1.0880, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement of last year's decline intersects a key short-term descending trendline. Traders should continue to watch this ceiling in the coming days, bearing in mind that a bullish breakout could set the stage for a rally toward 1.0980. In the event of sellers successfully defending the technical zone at 1.0865/1.0880, we could see downside pressure drive the exchange rate down toward support at 1.0810. The pair may stabilize around this floor during a pullback before resuming its ascent. However, if a breakdown occurs, a retest of the 200-day simple moving average at 1.0790 could be imminent, with attention then transitioning to 1.0775.
by Xayah_trading
1
EURUSD remains tight as the market can take cues from PCE dataThe lack of US data last week resulted in lower volatility, benefiting the dollar and treasury yields. Low volatility favors higher yielding currencies in the FX market. The upcoming US PCE data could impact the dollar's performance. Better than expected survey data on Friday revealed a decrease in inflation expectations, causing temporary weakness in the dollar and a rise in EUR/USD. This recovery in EUR/USD may lead to bearish movement next week. If inflation in the eurozone, particularly in Germany, continues to weaken, the euro could face pressure midweek. Many ECB officials have expressed a preference for a 25 basis point cut next month, which could lead to further easing leading up to the June ECB meeting. In contrast, the May Fed meeting minutes showed a more hawkish approach and lack of confidence in reaching the Fed's 2% inflation target, supporting a stronger US dollar and higher US yields. The upcoming EU inflation data could cause the Lower German pair to trade lower. This could be further influenced by disappointing PCE inflation. If there is no new swing high at the beginning of the week, it may lead to a bearish move for the rest of the week. A sell-off could occur if the pair drops below 1.0800, while a bullish continuation would require surpassing the recent high of 1.0895 on a daily closing basis.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD has broke back of interests for the weekEarlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed confidence in the euro zone inflation being under control. In contrast, the recently released Fed minutes indicate a negative impact on the committee's confidence in achieving 2% inflation and suggest that it will take more time to recover. The minutes were recorded before the latest US CPI data, highlighting that a single positive print is not enough for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts seriously. EURUSD was expected to give up last week's gains as the FX market focused on higher yielding currencies like the US dollar, Pound Sterling, and the Kiwi dollar. Despite breaking out of an ascending channel, EURUSD traded slightly higher in the London AM session following improved European flash PMI data for May. German manufacturing data showed signs of improvement, moving closer to the neutral 50 mark, and there was a slight increase in sentiment in the services sector as well. Channel support, now resistance, serves as the nearest challenge to dollar strength heading into the end of the week. 1.0800 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) present downside levels of interest.
by Xayah_trading
2
$ES top in?We got a large reversal today which makes me think that top is in for this cycle. As you can see from the chart, price went over resistance and closed back below it which is extremely bearish. From here, I think we'll see a move down to the first support at $4800, then I think it's likely that we bounce higher to make people think we're going to see another move higher, but instead of having a sustained trend, we'll roll over down to new lows. My base case is that we'll see the lowest supports at $2750-2900 before we see any sustainable bull market trend form. Let's see how it plays out.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by benjihyam
GOLD driven by CPI, next eye on PPI dataThe release of the US inflation report shows that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. The US Dollar fell sharply and gold prices reached a 6-week high then corrected slightly in the Asian trading session today Friday (July 12). CPI data reinforces expectations of a Fed rate cut • US consumer prices unexpectedly fell in June, with the smallest annual increase in a year, reinforcing the view that disinflation is back on track and prompting the Federal Reserve to take action an important step in cutting interest rates. • The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% month-over-month in June, the first decline since May 2020 US seasonally adjusted CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year in June, below market expectations of 3.1%, the lowest since June last year. • Additionally, the seasonally unadjusted core CPI in the US recorded an annual increase of 3.3% in June, below market expectations of 3.4% and the lowest level since April /2021. • The seasonally adjusted monthly core CPI rate in June was 0.1%, below market expectations of 0.2% and the lowest since August 2021. CME Group's (CME) Federal Reserve interest rate tracker shows that after the release of US CPI data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 92.6%, significantly higher than Wednesday's 70%. Since gold does not earn interest, falling interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and increase the investment appeal of the precious metal. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has attended US Senate and House committee hearings over the past 2 days, and his testimony shows that the Fed is getting closer to a decision to cut interest rate. Today (Friday), investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for July. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After reaching and breaking the original price level of 2,400 USD, the target increase noticed by readers in previous publications, gold is also making certain adjustments. And the $2,400 raw price point now becomes the closest support on the daily chart. The bullish technical structure of gold prices remains unchanged with all supporting factors from the trend price channel, support level at the original price point of 2,400 USD and maintaining price activity above the 21-day moving average (EMA21). In addition, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price increases in the near future. As long as gold remains within the trending price channel, the main technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with notable technical points listed below. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,424 – 2,449USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2441 - 2439 ⚰️SL: 2445 ⬆️TP1: 2434 ⬆️TP2: 2429 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2379 - 2381 ⚰️SL: 2375 ⬆️TP1: 2386 ⬆️TP2: 2391
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading