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#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures: Bullish until bears come around. Big bull surprise to start 2025 with strong follow through above 72. Market has still a bit room to the bear trend line, that started in 2024-04, around 75. I can’t see this breaking above 77.38 and I have my doubts about a break of the trend line, so longs are no option for me here. I want to see selling pressure next week and wait for decent second signal before shorting this. comment: Big bull surprise early in 2025. I did not expect the market to just melt through 3 months of lower highs. We now have the big bear trend line right above us around 75 and it’s reasonable to expect market to get there before we could see bigger profit taking. Any short would need a stop 77.4 but I still think the odds are very good for the bears that we won’t make a higher high. Volume is still garbage so once we have decent selling pressure, I will take that swing short. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 70 - 75 bull case: Bulls want 75 and a retest of the bear trend line. Easy as that. They could overshoot it some but market has respected it two times before so I expect the trend line to hold. Volume is atrocious so it’s possible that the market just melts lower over the next 1-2 weeks after the retest. It would be very strong by the bulls if they keep the market above 70 now. Invalidation is below 70. bear case: Bears have nothing for now but since we have made lower highs since 2023-09, they expect this to be one as well and the closer they can short to 77 the better. It’s too early to short and bears need to build much bigger selling pressure. We will probably have to go sideways first before this can come down again. Invalidation is above 77.4. short term: Bullish until bears come around. Longing pullbacks is decent until we make lower lows again. Every touch of the 2h 20ema was bought, so keep looking for longs close to it. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Neutral but slightly bearish if bears get follow through on Monday. Market tested the 50% of the last leg down and found more sellers than buyers. Bulls now have 3 pushed up which went nowhere as of now. We also closed right at the daily 20ema so this is as neutral as it gets. If bulls get a daily close above 2680, we can continue to 2700 and below 2650 I expect more downside to 2600/2620. comment: Likely more neutral than anything else. 50% retracement of recent bear leg is 2680 and market stopped there on Friday. We have more room to the upside inside this bigger triangle. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2620 - 2720 bull case: Bulls want a retest of 2700 but they have tried 3 times now and price went nowhere. Friday could have been a retest of the breakout but bulls would need a very strong reversal on Monday to confirm that. Bulls don’t have much until they get above 2680 and then the upside could be limited to 2700. No matter how you put it, this is not strong buying by the bulls and nothing to get excited about. Invalidation is below 2600. bear case: Bears sold every new high at made money for 3 weeks now. They also fail to make lower lows and that is why we are in a bigger triangle with bad follow-through after every decent bull/bear bar. I think Friday was strong enough to expect a bit more downside but where do you put your stop? 2680? Very high probability market will retest it or go above before it turns again. Most bears would like to short closer to 2700. Invalidation is above 2730. short term: Neutral inside given range. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Neutral. Much less bearish than dax because the pull-back above 6100 was so strong. We are right below the most important price 6000 and with it the bear case lives or dies. If bulls can go above again and test the bear trend line around 6050, the odds for the bears become really bad. Much more likely outcome then is more sideways inside the triangle. If bears do a strong move below 5900 on Monday/Tuesday, they took control again and odds are decent for the big second leg down. It’s 50/50 for me right now who wins this. comment: 6000 is the big round number for both sides to close above or below. The longer bears can close below, the better the odds for a second leg down. I do think bear’s fumbled their chance for now a bit with the strong bullish close on Friday. If bulls continue higher on Monday we will likely test the bear trend line 6040ish again and it will be interesting to see if big sellers come around again. If the bears would have been stronger, this second bounce at 5870 wouldn’t have happened. The current triangle could continue for couple more days. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 5870 - 6100 bull case: Strong close on Friday and it’s reasonable to expect more upside on Monday. The current descending triangle pattern has room for a couple of more days. Bulls who scaled into longs with a stop below the October and November low 5797 are making money and bears would need to build bigger selling pressure below 5860 for them to cover. I don’t think many bulls will hold long on Monday if we fail to trade above 6000. Invalidation is below 5860. bear case: Bears are not doing enough below 5800. Bulls printed a decent double bottom to buy. Now they need to stop the market from finding acceptance above 6000 again. If we stay below 6000 and go more sideways between 5860-6000, I do think bears are favored for the second leg down because scaling in bulls can’t hold long if we break below 5860 and late bulls who got trapped above 6100 will likely also give up on a bigger pull-back above 6100 again. Invalidation is above 6100. short term: Neutral between 5900 - 6000, bullish above 6000 for at least 6040 and bearish only below 5860. Shorts near 6050 are great r:r wise and I will take them for a swing. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.05 - 1.10.25Last Week : Sunday Globex opened inside VAH of 6054 - 5933 HTF Range after a Friday failure over upper Edge. Failures over/under HTF Edges usually provide good reaction back to previous Value and Edges which is what we got to start the week as we got a move from VAH to VAL and pushed out to tag lower Edge but the whole move pretty much happened during pre market hours so when we opened up we didn't get continuation, instead we got balancing/covering with weakness since we had supply that was coming out from above, we balanced most of the week between the lower Edge and Value of the range until we built up enough supply to flush it through the Edge, the sell through was strong but we only had enough supply to tag lower VAH where buying came in to push us back inside the Edge. Since it was end of the week we expected more covering to be done, since the Edge held pre market without any more size selling that brought in more covering and momentum buying to push back into our current HTF Ranges Value to close the week. This Week: Last weeks close may seem strong but we have to keep in mind that currently our structure is going through a change on higher time frames, for now Daily is slowly transitioning into a possible longer correction after failing and building supply over the Daily Edge which was 640s - 70s area ( Remember Failures over Edges bring us back to Value AND could target previous Edges, since its daily it can take time to get there but Daily VAL is 846 - 28 and Daily lower Edge is 754 - 24) We are holding under Smaller and Bigger MAs and they are getting closer for a cross which will be signaling a correction lower, seems like this time around we are in for a longer/slower correction that can take time to play out and time to end. Last few weeks with failures over the Daily Edge we have been getting moves back to Daily Value and going back and forth between it's VAH and Mean areas with dips under the Mean that were bought. Daily VAH is around 987 - 67 Area and going into this week if we can't show stability over it by holding over/between 5993 - 6007 areas and get tests at/over above VAH then we would look for price to return under the VAH back inside 973 - 932 Intraday Range and possibly start holding under Daily VAH. Lower Edge 993 - 913 may provide enough support for us to continue balancing over it but we have to keep in mind that holding under current HTF Ranges VAL and building more supply at/over the Edge can bring in more weakness and if we get through Intraday area of 932 - 27 with more supply above that can give us sells towards lower VAH again and possibly this time around we can try to get inside lower Value again, we have swing stops to watch out for under 850s which if taken could provide more selling towards lower VAL and possibly moves out of it IF we will have enough supply. We do have that area of 800 - 750 and next Edge below us which was our distribution balance for some time at one point, so we have to watch out what we do that as we may hold above it or price may want to try and get inside it again as that is an area where it found balance before. Of course all of this we have to watch area by area for continuation as we may keep getting buying at and under current Edge but things are set up for these moves if we want to go at least for lower Value but we MUST take out key areas for any continuation as price may find balance around current Value and stay in this range if we are not ready to move yet. For price to remain stable we would need to be able to hold inside current Value without getting back under VAL that could keep us stable enough to balance inside the Value in current intraday range of 6018 - 78 which so far we haven't showed acceptance in, and for any strength beyond that we would need a strong push over above VAH and hold over it to start building new cost basis, even if we get moves to or over current VAH it's a place to be careful as we can keep seeing sells from there back inside Value.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Palm Oil Market Watch: Technical Breakdown & Fundamental ShakeupIn the ever-changing landscape of the global vegetable oil market, palm oil takes center stage once again. From India’s sharp increase in imports to Indonesia’s biodiesel policy adjustments and Malaysia’s declining export figures, the palm oil market is witnessing a dynamic interplay of forces. On the technical front, critical price levels and trend shifts are adding layers of uncertainty and opportunity for market participants. This article delves into the latest developments and future outlook of the palm oil market through both fundamental and technical perspectives. 1. News and Fundamental Analysis Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at the Mumbai-based vegetable oil brokerage Sunvin Group, stated that palm oil futures rebounded from earlier weakness because India, the world's largest edible oil importer, increased its palm oil purchases. India bought approximately 100,000 metric tons of palm oil during the first two working days of 2025. Indonesia’s Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Yuliot Tanjung, announced on Friday that the country would provide a 1.5-month transition period for businesses to meet the new B40 biodiesel policy requirements. Initially, Indonesia planned to mandate a 40% palm oil content in biodiesel starting January 1, but industry stakeholders are still awaiting technical regulations for implementation. Independent inspection company AmSpec Agri reported on Tuesday that Malaysia's palm oil product exports for November totaled 1,381,837 tons, a 2.5% decrease from November's 1,417,436 tons. Meanwhile, data from Intertek Testing Services (ITS) showed Malaysia’s palm oil product exports for December fell to 1,359,504 tons, down 7.8% from November's 1,473,761 tons. Palm oil prices followed the trends of other competing edible oils as they vie for market share in the global vegetable oil market. In China, the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped by 2.56%, while the most active palm oil contract declined by 1.36%. The CBOT March soybean oil futures contract remained steady. 2. Technical Analysis Malaysian BMD crude palm oil (CPO) futures rose on Friday but ended the week with a decline of over 5%, reversing gains from the previous week. The benchmark March CPO contract on BMD increased by RM41, or 0.95%, to RM4,374 per ton. The weekly chart for the continuous contract FCPO1! shows that prices failed to hold the support level around RM4,500, instead falling to RM4,374. Despite losing the RM4,500 level, the overall upward trend structure remains intact on the weekly chart. The next support level is anticipated around RM4,120. If this level is also breached, it will be necessary to reassess whether the major trend has shifted from bullish to bearish. On the daily chart for FCPO1!, the overall trend leans bearish. A clear double-top formation is evident, with a neckline break, resistance retest, and distinct downward waves. While support is visible around RM4,250, it is unlikely to be strong. Both the weekly and daily charts for the March contract indicate that RM4,250 does not represent a solid support level. 3. Summary By referencing the March and continuous contracts, the next significant support level is likely between RM4,120 and RM4,150. Until this support range is breached, the overall trend can be described as long-term bullish with short-term bearish corrections.
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by goldong01
GOLD soars on positive conditions, despite USD strengthOANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase after a strong increase in yesterday's trading day. Gold price is currently at about 2,663 USD/ounce. Despite the strength of the US Dollar, spot gold still rose to its highest level in more than two weeks, due to safe-haven buying and falling US bond interest rates. The market is rushing to open positions before the Trump administration's tariff and trade policies are introduced. US media exclusively reported: Biden discussed a plan to attack Iran's nuclear facility before Trump took office US President Joe Biden has discussed plans to attack Iran's nuclear facilities before Trump's inauguration on January 20 if Tehran accelerates its development of nuclear weapons, US website Axios reported. Reuters reported that Russia carried out drone attacks in Kiev early Wednesday morning, causing damage to two areas, while Israel attacked a community near Gaza City. The market at the beginning of the year will pay close attention to the development of geopolitical risks. Any sign of tension in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine could send the price of gold, the traditional safe haven, higher. Gold is considered a hedge against geopolitical instability and discovery risk, but because it doesn't earn interest, it does better in a low interest rate environment. The latest report from Britain's Reuters today (Friday) said that Gaza authorities said an Israeli air strike on Thursday killed at least 68 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, including a tent camp and people standing head of the Hamas-controlled police force in the Gaza Strip. His deputy and nine evacuees died there. The attack took place in the Al-Mawasi area, which was previously designated a humanitarian zone for civilians during the 14-month war between Israel and Hamas, which rules Gaza. According to the Hamas-controlled Interior Ministry, Gaza police chief Mahmoud Salah and his assistant Hussam Shahwan were killed in the attack while they were checking in refugees. The Gaza Interior Ministry added in a statement: "By committing the crime of assassinating the Gaza Strip police chief, the occupiers are determined to spread chaos in (the enclave) and deepen the suffering of people." Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After struggling for quite a while in the area of ​​the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level yesterday, since gold broke this important confluence around 2,634 USD, it has had bullish conditions in the short term. The area of ​​POC Volume Profile with EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.618% now becomes a short-term support area. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index also rose above the 50 level, which should be considered a positive signal as the current 50 level also becomes support for the RSI in the short term. Temporarily, the gold price chart is limiting its upward momentum by the 0.50% Fibonacci level and if gold continues to break this level it will tend to increase further with the next target being $2,693 which is the position of the upper edge of the triangle. purple price tag. Thus, the intraday trend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following levels. Support: 2,634 – 2,640USD Resistance: 2,664 – 2,693USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2694 - 2692⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2698 →Take Profit 1 2687 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2682 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2629 - 2631⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2525 →Take Profit 1 2636 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2641
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2025-01-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Neutral. 4th consecutive bull bar on the daily chart and it’s the biggest of the 4. We are close to a bear trend line from the triangle (depending on how you want to draw it) and I rather think this is the climactic end of the rally for now and we pull back more. I can be totally wrong and market breaks above the trend line to retest the August high above 76 but trend lines are support/resistance until broken. Neutral because I think it’s too high to buy and too early to short. The close above 73 was really strong though. comment: Bulls with a strong break above the November high and they closed above 73. We are now in a dead zone between 72.35 and 74 (or the area around the bear trend line). We could see a bigger pull-back down to 72 or 71 before we test the bear trend line. Longs in the dead zone are bad trades, no matter how you put it. I do think the breakout is strong enough to wait for pull-backs and go long then. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 71 - 74 bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side now but buying this close to the bear trend line is probably unwise. Many bulls will probably want to see a decent pull-back and form a better channel up. Any pull-back should stay above 70/71 though or more could see it as a bull trap like all other highs above 72 were for 3 months now. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Bears had to give up once market continued above 72.35. Can they hold short and scale in higher with a stop 78? Not really. They will never reach even 1x their risk, so we will probably have to wait and see where the interest in buying vanishes and market stalls. Bears want to start shorting as close to the bear trend line as possible and if we just use the July & October highs, we could go up to 75. Bears really don’t have much here. Best they can hope for is to stall the market below 75 and wait for more bulls to take profits. Invalidation is above 74. short term: Bullish. Buying near the 2h 20ema or most recent bull trend line is reasonable. Targets above are 74 and maybe 75. I will wait for a better pull-back to buy. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Long since 10 a.m. CET. Strong 1h bull bar closing at the high tick and immediate follow through. Market never looked back.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
2025-01-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - Bullish. Clear breakout on the 4h tf and market looks like it wants to retest 2700. The triangle is the dominant pattern for now and there is no more resistance until 2700 for the bulls. Market kept above the 1h 20ema since the breakout and any long close to it is reasonable until it’s clearly broken. Bears need something below 2650 again and make the market go sideways for longer to turn it neutral again. comment: Bullish breakout and very strong close at the high. Clear buy signal and market turned bullish again. 2700 is the next big target for the bulls and best case for them would be to keep the 1h 20ema support. Bears need a strong move down to get below 2650 again and then sideways for many bars to turn it neutral again. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2560 - 2760 bull case: Bulls want 2700 next but I doubt they will get much higher than that. Longing any pullback for target 2700-2720 is reasonable for now. The last time bulls printed two consecutive strong bull bars on the daily chart was in mid December when we moved 120 points up. A measured move from the past 2 days brings us to 2730ish and close enough to the lower highs around 2740/2760. Invalidation is below 2640. bear case: Bears were nowhere to be found today. They could not print 1 decent 1h bar and that is why I think today’s price action is so strong. Every small dip was bought and volume is also picking up again. Bears would need something below 2640 again but for now the best they can hope for is to stay below 2700 and go sideways. Invalidation is above 2710. short term: Bullish. Want to see 2700 and markets reaction there. Depending on the next pull-back, this could continue to 2740+ and break above the bear trend line but for now I look for longs for target 2700. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher. current swing trade : None trade of the day: Buying near the 1h 20ema.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
REZ. Coin Stabilizing Post-Listing: Potential for Upside.BINANCE:REZUSDT 1D The coin experienced a steep and prolonged decline after listing, eventually finding a bottom and gradually starting to recover. Currently, the price is in consolidation but made an attempt to break upward, which, unfortunately, was unsuccessful. The price encountered resistance (selling pressure) at the $0.06682 level, leading to a continuation of the correction. In the short term, I expect the correction to continue toward support levels near our pending orders (yellow horizontal lines: $0.03600 - $0.03130), followed by a bounce (buybacks) and further upward movement. DYOR.
Long
by trendbooster
GOLD maintains a narrow recovery rangeOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintains a recovery trend and narrow range during the day. As of the time of writing, gold price is currently trading at about 2,633 USD/ounce. On this trading day, investors will pay attention to many important data such as the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, PMI and the housing market, which are expected to stimulate activate market conditions and create market volatility. Today (Thursday), seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of December 28 will be released, expected to be 224,000, compared to 219,000 the previous week. If the latest initial unemployment claims are lower than expected, this will have a positive impact on the US Dollar and affect the price of gold and major non-US currencies. On the same day, the final value of the US Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December will be announced, expected to be 48.3. US construction spending in November will be released, with the monthly rate expected to increase 0.3%. On the daily chart it's OANDA:XAUUSD is still trading in a very narrow operating range, with temporary short-term rallies still limited by pressure from the EMA21 and the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. Note to readers in digital publications out first. Temporarily, gold's trend is quite neutral with the possibility of accumulation depicted by the purple triangle. However, based on the current position, gold has more conditions to decrease in price with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still below level 50, level 50 is considered resistance or support for RSI depending on conditions. RSI's lawsuit. On the other hand, gold could open a new bearish cycle once it is sold below the 0.786% Fibonacci level and the subsequent target of $2,538 in the short term. Even if gold recovers above EMA21, it is still unable to create a concrete uptrend, with pressure from the upper edge of the purple price triangle. Using the POC Volume Profile we will also see that the area around 2,634 – 2,640USD is an area where a lot of trading occurs, this should be considered a pressure area given gold's current position. During the day, gold's trend is neutral with technical conditions tilted to the downside and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,604 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,640USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2651 - 2649⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2644 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2639 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2606 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2611
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-01-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and happy new year. comment: Bears have all the arguments on their side now. Santa rally was drowned and market formed a textbook head & shoulders pattern. My lowest target in my year end special was around 5300 and the h&s target is 5400. The yearly close below 6000 was very important for the bears because now we have multiple confirmations of the sell-off and sell signals going into the new year. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6120 bull case: Bulls are in serious doubt about this bull trend. They need a strong close above 6000 to keep the market neutral between 5900 - 6100. If they manage that, we move sideways for longer. We have a triangle on the daily chart which could hold for a couple more days before we see a bigger breakout. We are also still trading above the weekly 20ema but that’s at 5930 and the next daily bear close will close below. Invalidation is below 5860. bear case: Bears have many arguments on their side. For bulls it’s a bad place to force the market to bottom out because they have much bigger support at 5800. Bulls have also blown the rally by printing the lower high 6107 and the head & shoulders looks too perfect for bears. Volume has also increased decently so bears have now created many good sell signals going into 2025. My rough guess for the next days is either more chop inside the triangle before the second leg down or a fast and decisive move tomorrow/Friday down to 5800 and below to test the bigger bull trend line around 5750. Invalidation is above 6100. short term: Neutral 5900 - 6000. Bearish below 5900 for 5800 and then 5750. Can’t see this going above 6100 but if we do, I am wrong and we likely do 6200. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Market was closed
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-12-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral between 20000 - 20100, Bearish below 20000. Bears tried to break down the bear flag and make new lows but failed above 19900 and bulls retraced 50% of it. Good for bears is that they kept the 1h 20ema resistance and xetra closed the year below 20000, which is a sell signal going into January. Bulls did a good job at retracing more than 50% of the sell-off the keeping it above 20000. Market formed a triangle so buy low and sell high inside it. Below 19900 we could see an acceleration downwards and I see the chance of that happening much greater than going above 20160 again. comment: Xetra closed below 20000 and that was very important for the bears. The December bar is now a nasty reversal bar and once we make new lows below 19800, bulls can’t hold long since we could easily pull back down to 19100 - 19400. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19800 - 20200 bull case: Bulls do not have much going for them currently, other than keeping the market close to 20000 and that means above the breakout price for the recent bull leg. They have to keep this above 19800 or this bull leg was indeed the exhaustive end of this bull trend and market will test lower. Bulls would need a daily bull bar closing above 20000 to begin with. Invalidation is below 19800. bear case: Bears are in control but not as strong as I hoped they would be. Daily bear bars all have tails below but at least bears have now printed 5 consecutive bear bars. This looks clearly like a bear flag about to break down after the strong selling from 20500 down to 19800. Confirmation would be a daily close below 19800 and bears next target then is 19500 and testing the bull trend line. Bulls would have to break above two bear trend lines to start making the market neutral again. Invalidation is above 20160. short term: Neutral around 20000. Bearish below 19990 and uber bearish below 19900 for 19800 or lower. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling the pull-back at 20100 down to 19900 was good. Buying 19900 second best trade today.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2024-12-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Bearish. Good selling today and bulls could not close above the breakout price around 5990. The close was near the open of the week and since we had a big gap down, this is bearish confirmation. Below 5900 this could very well close the year below 5860, which would be a nasty bearish reversal bar on the monthly chart and a clear sell signal going into January. Bulls need to break above the trend line and 6000 again and a close above it would be neutral. comment: I am heavily favoring a yearly close below 5900 as of now. The selling is strong enough and bears made lower highs again. Anything below 5860 would surprise me though. We are in a clear bear channel and bulls need something above 5965 and bears a break below 5900. The open of December was near 6100 and the lower bears can close this monthly bear bar, the better. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6050 bull case: Bulls retraced 78.6% of the sell-off which was the fib retracement to the tick. Did it help? No. Very strong selling into the close again and after hours. Bulls need to fight for 6000. The only thing they have going for them is that we made a higher low. Any yearly close above 6000 would be good for them. Invalidation is below 5860. bear case: Bears are trading below the 1h 20ema, daily 20ema and have 2 bear trend lines going for them. They need strong follow through tomorrow and close this below 5865, which was the previous December low. We have nested bear channels on the 1h chart but also a triangle with last weeks low. Objectives for the bears tomorrow are to keep the 1h 20ema resistance and break below 5900 to test 5865. Invalidation is above 6038. short term: Neutral 5950 - 6000. Bearish below 5950 for 5900 and then 5865. Uber bearish below 5865. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling since Globex open. The reversal from the 5918 low was very strong and trapped many late bears. Second best trade was to take it and hold until market stalled for multiple hours near 5990.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202452 - priceactiontds - year end special - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Probably the most boring outlook to write. Oil has been in a triangle since 2023-09 and we will see a bigger breakout in 2025. To which side? Absolutely no idea. Oil has been stuck inside a 10% range for the past 10 weeks and it’s almost not possible that the range contracts further. We have nested triangles and the biggest of those can play out a couple of more weeks. It’s always possible that the pattern fails and market could just continue sideways for longer. Since I don’t have a crystal ball, I do not have an opinion on where this could break out. Market is in total balance around 69. I will continue to take this market level by level and play the given range. Since neither side has any arguments for their case, I won’t write a bull/bear case for this. If you don’t like trading ranges, just don’t trade this. current market cycle: trading range (nested triangles on multiple time frames) key levels for 2025: 65 - 75 short term: I won’t make up stuff. Market is as neutral as it gets. Clear support 66/67 and clear resistance 70.5 / 72.3 medium-long term: Nope to the nopedy nope. Go follow some macro schmackro dude who tells the world Oil will go to 100$ again because of *insert hypothetical macro event*. current swing trade: None
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202452 - priceactiontds - year end special nasdaq eminiGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: If you have read part 1 of 2, much of the following will be the same. Nasdaq has now gained 80%+ since the 2022-10 lows. Again, if you think it’s more likely that we will do another 15%+ up next year because this time it’s different, I don’t have much for you and you can stop reading now. Now matter how you draw the bull trend since, it has had at least 3 clear big legs up where the last one was the shortest with the least pull-backs. The confirmation for it to end would be consecutive daily closes below 20800. For now bears have not had two consecutive weekly bear bars since September. The trend is overdone to say the least. As for dax and sp500, a 20% correction would bring us down to big previous support 2024-04 and 2024-08 at 17900. My first medium-term target would be the big bull trend line, which is overlapping a fair bit with the monthly 20ema. The trend line is around 19700-20000 and the monthly 20ema is currently at 18900. For the near term I expect the market to get it’s second leg down early in 2025 and potential targets are the 50% pb of the last bull leg and the previous ath from 2024-07 which would bring us to 20400-20650. current market cycle: Bull trend of the past two years has likely ended and new lows below 20900 will be the confirmation, at least to me. Technically only a break of the big bull trend line would confirm it (around 19700 currently) key levels for 2025: 17800 - 22500 (decent chance we will see 20000 only in the first couple of weeks and then only in a couple of months or years again) bull case: Bull trend is technically over once we break below the bull trend line which is currently 19600. Bulls are still very far above that and trading above the weekly 20ema. They remain in control for now but after such a long ongoing rally they are trading the momentum only because stonkz can only go up eh. I really don’t have much for the bulls here. We could do another try of 22000 and above and even print a new ath but the upside will probably be very limited. Don’t expect bullish outlooks from me over the next weeks. I will only scalp long on big support. The best outcome for bulls that I see is sideways above 20000. Anything below will accelerate to the downside. Invalidation is below 17400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 15000 again. bear case: In order, my first big target for the bears for 2025 is 19000, where I expect more sideways movement. Below 19000 comes 18000 which was previous support and the lowest I can see this for now is 17400. Bears would need stronger follow through below 21500 early in January and then make new lows below 20900. Then I see the odds of a measured move down to 19500-20000 as decent. On my weekly chart you can see my preferred path forward for the next months. 3 legs down where leg 1 was the drop from 22450 to 21000. I do think it’s much more likely to expect a break of the dashed bull trend line than another leg up. Invalidation is above 22600. short term: The year end rally was stopped short at 22110 and I don’t think bulls have enough strength to go above it Monday/Tuesday. We could see a spike up after new years but if we close 2024 below 21500, I expect the spike to be sold as well. If we don’t trade above 22000 by 2025-01-03, I see the odds that the top is in at 70%. My short term target for the bears is 21000 and lowest for now is 20700 for me. If 20700 is not bigger support, 20300 is my next target. medium-long term: As stated above, “If we don’t trade above 22000 by 2025-01-03, I see the odds that the top is in at 70%.”. In that case, my bear targets medium term are 19000 and long term lowest target as of now, is 17400. Anything above 22500 would surprise me. current swing trade: I will initiate longer term shorts depending on next weeks price action. Any short would need a stop with at least 22600.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds
GOLD tries to recover after the holidayOn this trading day, gold traders OANDA:XAUUSD will need to focus on data on initial jobless claims in the US, which could have an impact on market trends in the short term. The seasonally adjusted number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the week of December 21 will be released today (Thursday) and is expected to be 224,000. Data released last week showed initial jobless claims in the United States fell from 242,000 to 220,000 in the week ended December 14, below expectations of 230,000, showing signs that the labor market movement is still steady. If the latest initial unemployment claims turn out to be lower than expected, this will have a positive impact on the US Dollar and a negative impact on the price of gold and major non-US currencies. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has recovered from the technical level of $2,613, but the recovery is still limited by the upper edge of the price channel, along with the nearest resistance level noted at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement point. % and EMA21. Considering the current price position, gold still has a technical outlook of falling in price with the main trend being noticed by the price channel. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet surpassed the 50 level, the 50 level is considered resistance/support depending on the position of the RSI and on the current daily chart it is considered a resistance. In the short term, if gold falls below the technical level of $2,613 it will have room to fall a bit further with a target level then around $2,600 and more to the $2,592 price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement. . As long as gold does not break above the price channel, with price activity stabilizing above the EMA21, it remains biased to the downside, with notable levels listed below. Along with that, using POC Volume Profile, at 2,646USD there is also a large trading volume, this position should also be considered a technical resistance. Support: 2,613 – 2,600 – 2,592USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,646USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2651 - 2649⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2644 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2639 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2585 →Take Profit 1 2596 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2601
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading