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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Feb 10 - Feb 14]This week, rising Treasury yields and the threat of a global trade war are contributing to a stagflation environment, causing investors to rush into gold, and spot gold prices at one point climbed as high as $2,886/oz. US President Donald Trump has launched trade war 2.0 with the imposition of strong tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China. The 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico were postponed for a month, but the 10% tariffs on China took effect. China responded with 10-15% tariffs on US energy and agricultural products, effective from February 10, 2025. Trade war 2.0 expands in scope compared to 2018, includes many major trading partners and takes place in parallel with the US-China technology war. Countries with large trade surpluses with the US face the risk of becoming new tariff targets. If negotiations between the US and its partners fail to reach an agreement, retaliation could escalate, disrupting global trade, weakening economic growth and creating inflationary pressures, leading to stagflation, thereby boosting gold prices. On the contrary, if the Trump administration "cools down" the trade war by reaching an agreement after imposing tariffs, gold prices may decrease due to weakening shelter demand. Some economic data affecting gold prices next week: Tuesday: US Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee. Wednesday: US consumer price index (CPI), FED Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee. Thursday: US producer price index (PPI), US weekly unemployment benefit applications. Friday: US retail sales 📌Technically, gold prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium and long term. However, downward corrections can occur at any time considering shorter time frames such as H4, D1. On the H4 chart, the price can adjust to around the hard resistance level which is also the dynamic resistance level around 2790 before entering an upward trend again. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,844 – 2,834USD Resistance: 2,869 – 2,886 – 2,891USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2911 - 2909⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2915 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2789 - 2791⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2785
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
Market Update: Tariffs, Trade Shifts & Bitcoin's Next MoveCME:BTC1! News and Economic Calendar Update President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, effective Monday, with reciprocal tariffs to follow on Tuesday or Wednesday. As Trump has shared, “if they tax us, we tax them the same amount.” This move is expected to reshape global trade relations, with China reportedly considering probes into U.S. tech firms such as Broadcom (AVGO) and Synopsys (SNPS), according to WSJ. Japan's PM Ishiba remains optimistic about avoiding higher U.S. tariffs, while Australia and India are negotiating exemptions and trade concessions. Meanwhile, the EU has hinted at retaliatory measures should new tariffs be imposed. The U.S. dollar strengthened following Friday’s jobs report and fresh tariff announcements, while the Japanese yen under-performed. The EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.03 before rebounding, and the British pound remained stable ahead of comments from BoE’s Mann. U.S. Treasury yields were unchanged, while European bunds edged higher amid rising trade concerns. Gold surged to an all-time high above $2,900/oz, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets due to tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, crude oil reached session highs, and European natural gas prices climbed to a two-year peak due to colder temperatures and tight storage. Looking Ahead Key upcoming data releases include Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, U.S. CPI data, Chinese M2 Money Supply, and U.S. retail sales. Additionally, multiple central bank officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, providing further insights into monetary policy direction. Macro Update: Trade War 2.0 and Tariff Shifts Impact Markets. The latest reciprocal tariff announcements from Trump, in our view, presents a strategic opportunity for the U.S. This approach enables negotiations for lower tariffs on U.S. exports with individual trading partners, fostering a more flexible and targeted trade policy. This shift aligns more with global trade integration and could provide a more balanced framework for U.S. exporters. Gold continues to exhibit renewed strength as a safe-haven asset, marking fresh all-time highs amid market uncertainty. Meanwhile, Bitcoin—often referred to as "digital gold"—has lagged behind, struggling in a climate of risk-off sentiment. However, it remains within its post-election trading range, signaling resilience despite broader market volatility. At the fiscal level, U.S. House Republican leaders are proposing federal spending cuts ranging between $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion, according to Punchbowl sources. These cuts are expected to focus heavily on Medicaid spending. However, the effectiveness of government spending adjustments remains in question—whether such measures will enhance efficiency or simply reduce overall spending is yet to be seen. In addition, extending President Trump’s tax proposals could cut revenue by $5-11T over a decade, potentially pushing U.S. debt to 132-149% of GDP by 2035. Senate Republicans propose $342B in border and defense spending, with offsetting cuts. Meanwhile, Musk’s DOGE Service aims to automate government functions, reduce the federal workforce, and slash spending. Bitcoin Big Picture: Bitcoin has been consolidating after making new all time highs post US elections. Although price action and consolidation points towards further bullishness. We remain cautious and prepared for any of the scenarios that may happen as a result of many different factors influencing risk assets and market sentiment. To better manage your exposure to Bitcoin, consider using CME’s Micro Bitcoin and Bitcoin Friday Futures . Additionally, you can take part in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, allowing you to showcase your Micro Bitcoin trading skills in The Leap —risk-free. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Yearly Hi: 110,920 mCVAH: 104,400 Dec 2024 mid range: 101,570 Jan 2025 mid range: 100,610 mCVPOC: 98,075 mCVAL: 93,730 Key Bull Support: 92,505 - 90,000 Scenario 1: Further chop and acceptance In this scenario, we may see price action remain range bound. Traders look for clarity on how policy may affect market sentiment before further committing capital. Scenario 2: New ATHs Price attempts to create new ATHs which marks a significant move. Although bitcoin created new all time highs in January 2025, these were rejected and price action pointed towards market top. Scenario 3: Souring market sentiment Scenario 2 and 3 requires remaining alert to all developments as fundamental and macro news is turning ever so significant in driving short-term volatility and price action. Any further hint towards tighter monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy may send BTC prices lower very quickly.
CME:BTC1!
by EdgeClear
GOLD recovered strongly, Trump stimulated risk aversionDuring the Asian trading session on Monday (February 10), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot has recovered strongly after a short decline. Gold price has now recovered to about 2,874 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of about 15 USD during the day. US President Donald Trump said on Sunday local time that he would announce a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum on Monday. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that the tariffs would apply to metal imports from every country. He did not specify when the tariffs would be applied. Trump also said he would announce corresponding tariffs later this week for countries that impose tariffs on U.S. imports. These comments stimulated the market's risk aversion, the Asia-Pacific stock market and the US stock futures market fell, and the two safe-haven assets, the US dollar and gold, recovered together. On the daily chart, OANDA:XAUUSD recovered after receiving support from the upper channel edge, and in terms of technical structure nothing changed from previous releases with a bullish bias dominating the technical chart. Maintaining price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci extension provides the conditions for continued upside with the next target being at $2,891 the 0.382% Fibonacci extension, more so than the original price point of $2,900. With the price channel making a short-term uptrend, along with the Relative Strength Index providing no signs of a strong downside correction, gold is expected to continue searching for new all-time highs. The positions will be noted as follows. Support: 2,869 – 2,844 – 2,834USD Resistance: 2,891 – 2,900USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2906 - 2904⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2910 →Take Profit 1 2899 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2894 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2829 - 2831⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2825 →Take Profit 1 2836 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2841
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Crude Oil Analysis near resistance areaAs the market continues to react to various economic indicators and geopolitical developments, Crude Oil prices are currently at a pivotal point. Below are two potential scenarios based on the current market conditions. Current Analysis: Crude Oil is currently facing a critical resistance zone between $71.5 and $72.8. Based on the price action and market sentiment, I foresee two potential scenarios: Scenario 1: Bearish Reversal Resistance Strength: The resistance at $71.5 and $72.8 is strong. Expected Movement: If the price fails to break through this resistance, I anticipate a rebound, leading to a decline towards the $68-$69 area. Action Plan: Entry Signal: Monitor for bearish price action signals, such as a Shooting Star or a Bearish Engulfing Pattern, indicating a potential reversal. Entry Point: Enter a short position upon confirmation of the bearish signal. Target: Set a target at the $68-$69 range. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $72.8 to manage risk effectively. Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout Resistance Strength: The resistance at $71.5 and $72.8 is weak. Expected Movement: If the price successfully breaks above this resistance, I expect it to rally towards the $77-$77.5 area. Action Plan: Entry Signal: Wait for a confirmed close above $72.8, ideally accompanied by a strong bullish candle (preferably a long green candle) to validate the breakout. Entry Point: Enter a long position upon confirmation of the breakout. Target: Set a target in the $78-$79 range. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $71.5 to protect against potential reversals. Summary The key levels to watch are $71.5 and $72.8 for potential reversals or breakouts. I will wait for confirmation through price action signals befare takeing a decision.
NYMEX:CL1!
by dPEngineering
#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: RUN IT AGAIN. Lower highs, higher lows. Body gaps above (small though) and big bull gap below 21200. Market is in balance around 21500 and I do think for now market will spend more time between the given key levels until bigger news change that fact. Play was selling Friday, big gap down Monday and then sideways to up until late Friday. Let’s see if we repeat the cycle. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20500 - 22100 bull case: Bulls want to stay above the weekly 20ema which is currently around 21200. They are fine with this trading range above 20000 because that’s still really bullish if you think about it. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears get spikes and that’s it. They are deep, so they are making money but it’s a tough way to make a living to wait for some news and be quick with the sell button. I do think they are heavily favored to continue down below 21600 and test 21500 and hopefully 21200 again. What I can’t see happening is a lower low below 20940 though. We have a big body gap from 21405 to 21566 and it would be good for the bears if they can close it tomorrow. Invalidation is above 22000. short term: Bearish. I want to see 21200 next week. For now all stops for shorts have to be 21970. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-09: Another lower high but also higher lows. Bears are not doing enough, so we are in a trading range below the ath. We are close to it that there is always the possibility of printing a higher high again. Bears need lower lows below 20600 before we can talk about 20000 again. I still think 20000 is doable in February. current swing trade: None but will decide on futures open tonight if I want to get short with stop 21970. chart update: Added triangle and bull & bear gap.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 70 should be bigger support and I expect more sideways movement here. It is somewhat lower probability than bears continuing with the selling because bulls managed to go above the prior day’s bar exactly two times in the last 15 trading days. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 70 - 75 bull case: Bulls need to print some consecutive bull bars or the selling won’t stop. Their first target is to test up to 72 and the daily 20ema and then test the bear trend line from 79.45. Bulls have going for them that market is not making meaningful lower lows and new lows are bought. Still, best they can hope for next week is to go sideways between 70 - 73. Invalidation is below 69.7. bear case: Bears are selling any bounce harder than bulls are buying new lows. They prevent bulls from printing any decent bull bar or even consecutive bars above the 4h 20ema. They also have going for them that the volume during the selling is much greater than during the pull-backs. For now bears are still in full control and they are favored for lower prices. Problem for them is that 70 is a big round number and also above the trading that the market stayed in from October to December. Selling close to 70 is a bad sell and unless we get bearish oil news, we can expect bears to wait for pull-backs to 72 or 73 before selling again. Invalidation is above 75. short term: Neutral for now. No interest in this tbh. 70 should hold but the last thing I want to do is buying this. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear channel
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Strong correction, quick recovery, pay attention to NFP dataOANDA:XAUUSD Strong correction then quickly recovered and returned to close to $2,878, an important technical level for a new up cycle to open. In economic data released Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose 11,000 to 219,000 last week, compared with an expected 213,000. The data has weighed on the US Dollar Index (Dxy) for some time, which hit a two-year high of 110.17 on January 13 but has fallen 2% since then. In the absence of tariff-related news, the market is focused on today's US nonfarm payrolls report, which will be the next big influence on the US monetary policy outlook. In the latest news, the Federal Reserve announced on Thursday local time that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify in the US Congress next week. This will be the first time he has answered questions from members of Congress since last July. Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee next Tuesday and testified before the House Financial Services Committee the following day. Before the end of last year, the Fed cut interest rates by 100 basis points in three meetings. In January, the Fed voted to leave interest rates unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%. At the press conference following last month's interest rate decision, Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to cut interest rates further.　 US President Trump has toned down his criticism of Powell and his colleagues, which may help Powell's appearance go more smoothly. On Sunday, Trump said the Fed "did the right thing" by pausing interest rates. According to LSEG data, the market now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in July and a total of 46 basis points in December. Markets today belong to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, US nonfarm payrolls are expected to fall to 170,000 from 256,000 in January. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. The strong labor market is boosting economic growth and prompting the Fed to pause interest rate cuts as it assesses the inflationary impact of Trump's fiscal, trade and immigration policies. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold decreased and corrected then recovered when it gained support from the upper edge of the price channel, the Fibonacci extension 0.618% and Fibonacci 0.50%. Now that the rapid recovery has brought it back close to the target level of $2,878, the Fibonacci extension position is 0.786% and if the gold price is trading above this key technical level it will have conditions for a new bullish cycle with a target of around $2,900 in the short term, more than $2,918. The relative strength index (RSI) is operating in the overbought area, but does not show any signs of a possible correction; a correction signal will be identified when the RSI folds below the 80 level. During the day, the uptrend still dominates the technical chart, so the current pullbacks should only be considered a short-term correction without changing the trend. Along with that, notable locations will be listed as follows. Support: 2,846 – 2,834 – 2,824USD Resistance: 2,878 – 2,900 – 2,918USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2878 - 2876⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2882 →Take Profit 1 2871 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2866 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2839 - 2841⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2835 →Take Profit 1 2846 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2851
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Trump's policy promotes safe asset purchasesOANDA:XAUUSD increased sharply and reached a record high as uncertainty about Trump's policies prompted buying of safe assets, along with a decline in the US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields. OANDA:XAUUSD renews record highs as traders seek safe haven. The escalation of the Sino-US trade war has caused investors to flock to gold as a safe haven. Earlier this week, China responded to the new round of US tariffs by imposing tariffs on US goods, further escalating the trade war. US President Trump's rhetoric and policies continue to push investors toward gold. Amid the uncertainty caused by Trump's policies, gold prices will likely continue to reach new all-time highs in the near term. As Trump postponed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for 30 days but imposed 10% tariffs on China, the uncertainty has investors concerned about the potential for disruption to global trade. As a result, they continue to seek safety in precious metals and abandon the US Dollar. Investors are looking to Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report for more clues on the outlook for interest rates. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold corrected slightly after reaching the target level at the 0.786% Fibonacci extension noted by readers in yesterday's publication. However, gold can still continue to renew with new all-time highs, once the 0.786% Fibonacci extension is broken it will tend to continue rising with the target then around 2,900 USD in the short term, more than 2,918 USD. Although the Relative Strength Index is entering the overbought area, there is no sign of a correction yet; if the RSI slopes below 80, it will be considered a signal for a correction. During the day, as long as gold remains in/above the price channel, above EMA21, it still has a bullish outlook. Notable levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,846USD Resistance: 2,878 – 2,900USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2889 - 2887⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2893 →Take Profit 1 2882 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2877 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2844 - 2846⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2840 →Take Profit 1 2851 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2856
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2025-02-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Relentless selling on every rip. Bulls can’t catch a break and only a daily close above 75 will change that. Bears will likely get 70 tomorrow and then we will either see some bigger support or acceleration downwards. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 70 - 75 bull case: Well, some bulls are buying heavily for an hour or two and then it crumbles again. Bulls have no arguments and they better make 70 support or 65 is next. Invalidation is below 70. bear case: Bears are selling every rip. That’s about it. Their next target is 70 and for now I think it could be support for longer but we will have to see. I currently not trading this much. Bears have a wedge down and are still inside a bigger bear channel. Try to look for shorts close to the upper bear trend line with stop 75.2. Invalidation is a daily close above 75. short term: Bearish on pull-backs higher for target 70 but then neutral again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling every big rip continues to be the name of the game.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2
2025-02-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Strong bull trend from the open and I now have several measured moves that lead to 21800 and 22k. It would be surprising if bulls could not get it tomorrow or Friday. Can only get bearish again below 21550ish. current market cycle: bull trend until we get a daily close below 21550. key levels: 21400 - 22000 bull case: Bulls continue with higher highs and higher lows but the highs are barely higher. They will likely get another ath over the next 2 days but the upside will probably be very limited around 22k. Pullback has to stay above 21550ish but best would be to stay above 21600. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: If bulls can not claim 21800 tomorrow, I do think we have a decent chance of a big reversal but for now, bears have completely given up and they need a bull trend line break to turn market neutral again. Invalidation is above 22100. short term: Bullish for 22k if we stay above 21550ish and if we get 21800 tomorrow early. 22k is possible over the next 2 days. medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full bear mode. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying anywhere I guess.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
Obvious Long on Soybeans Soybeans have been consolidating for some time between the yellow and red trend lines after finding support just above the 1500 week ma. Corn has led the market with downward action and now leads it with upward trajectory. Soy's have finally broken out of the RSI downtrend they've been in for almost 4 years. It seems obvious that Soybeans will follow corn and move to the green line at the very least. The stochastic RSI on the monthly has had a confirmed cross up signaling bu8llish momentum in the next several months. For reference corn had a confirmed cross up last fall. The price I'm expecting is 12.5 a 15-17% gain from todays prices. If corn can keep moving higher the next target for soybeans is 14ish. I will start booking my soybeans for the 2025 season if we can get a 10-15% gain from here. I'm a farmer from Canada and have been studying charts for about 8 years now. i started implementing my TA into commodity futures a few years ago. Thanks for reading
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by andrewcation1979
2
GOLD constantly renews ATH, global trade conflict risksOANDA:XAUUSD spiked to a new record high, with continued upward momentum pushing the relative strength index (RSI) into overbought territory. Upcoming changes in US trade policy could support precious metals prices as they will increase uncertainty about the outlook for global economic growth. Against this backdrop, monetary authorities may still face pressure to take measures to protect their economies, even though US President Donald Trump has postponed tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Additionally, the risk of policy mistakes by major central banks could push gold prices higher as gold becomes more attractive as an alternative to fiat currencies. After Mexico and the United States reached an agreement to postpone tariffs, Canada did the same and the world's attention immediately turned to China. However, a sudden easing appears unlikely after China retaliated against the US's comprehensive tariffs on Tuesday and warned some US companies, including Google, that they could face sanctions. While global markets welcomed the US postponement of tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the partial easing does not eliminate long-running trade tensions in Asia. A planned phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday did not take place, a sign that relations between the two sides remain frosty. However, China's tariff measures will not officially take effect until February 10, giving Trump and Xi Jinping time to reach a "deal." While currency markets still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year (each time by 25 basis points), inflationary pressures from US tariffs are increasing, which makes the path of monetary policy through 2025 still very uncertain. On the daily chart, OANDA:XAUUSD renewed its all-time high after reaching the target increase at 2,846 USD, which readers noted in the previous issue. With that said, a break above this key technical level would qualify gold for a new bull run, and the target would then be around $2,878 in the short term rather than the original price point of $2,900. Although the RSI has entered the overbought zone, there are no signs of a decline indicating that the gold price may correct with the uptrend depicted by the line. As long as gold remains in/above the price channel, it still has a short-term trend to the upside, with the current position suitable for a new bull cycle to be opened. Notable locations will also be listed as follows. Support: 2,846 – 2,824USD Resistance: 2,878 – 2,900USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2863 - 2861⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2867 →Take Profit 1 2856 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2851 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2823 - 2825⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2819 →Take Profit 1 2830 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2835
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Feb 03 - Feb 07]Gold prices have just completed an accumulation period and this week broke out to a record high. Specifically, gold price increased quite strongly from 2,732 USD/oz to 2,817 USD/oz, then decreased and closed the week at 2,799 USD/oz. The White House announced that from February 1, 2025, the US will impose a tax of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on goods from China. This information caused global financial markets to fluctuate strongly. US stocks plunged, Treasury bond yields increased, while gold and USD became safe havens for cash flow. Gloomy US economic data and the risk of tariff escalation have pushed gold prices to a record high. After a week focusing on interest rates and inflation, the market next week will focus on the labor market with the December non-farm payrolls report. Gold traders will also monitor many other important data such as ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment report, and Bank of England policy decision, along with a preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. Next week's gold price may still maintain an upward trend when supported by many factors, along with the positive views of investors who expect gold prices to reach higher levels in the near future. 📌Technically, after reaching a record price above the threshold of 2,817 USD/oz, on the weekly chart, the average price of gold has also exceeded the threshold of 2,335 USD/oz. This shows that the average price of gold is higher, creating room for further increases in gold prices. A shorter-term perspective with the H4 chart, if next week's gold price benefits from worse economic data, the price will break out of the old peak of 2817 and rise above the 2850 threshold. If the resistance level is not broken, the gold price will temporarily decrease and adjust to around the EMA89 moving average line of the H4 chart, around the 2738 mark. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,785 – 2,774 – 2,762USD Resistance: 2,802 – 2,817 – 2,824USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2851 - 2849⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2855 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2737 - 2739⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2733
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
2025-02-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Gap is still open but bulls making higher lows. Can go both ways tomorrow and it will probably be another news-driven impulse. 50% retracement is 21560 on my chart and we are close to it, so don’t try to be clever and think you know which way the breakout will happen. Odds are even. Wait for it an hop along. current market cycle: bull trend until we get a daily close below 21600. key levels: 21000 - 22000 bull case: Bulls making higher lows but failed to close the gap. I don’t think we have seen strong selling at 21600 but since we have not moved down either, bulls chances of a breakout are as good as those for the bears. Bull targets are 21650, then 21755 and finally 22000. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: I won’t make stuff up here. below 21550 bears are favored again but for now they are obviously not doing enough. First target is 21500 and then 21400. If 400 won’t hold, we quickly move down to 21200 again. Invalidation is above 21600. short term: Bullish above 21600 for 700/800. If we break below 21450, we will likely test 400 and then if bears are strong, below 21370 we go for 21200 again. Most likely is a continuation sideways between 21370 - 21550. medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full bear mode. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying the double bottom 21400. Big bars with huge tails below at a big round number. Just buy it.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-02-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Higher highs and higher lows. Market have formed another bull wedge but until bears break below 21500 again, we can’t know for sure that we top out around 21700. Bears need something big tomorrow or we will likely reverse the complete sell-off and go above 22000 again. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21300 - 22000 bull case: Bulls want all those stops above the start of the sell-off on Friday and print 22k. They have closed the gap and closed today at the highs. They are in control and favored to continue higher. Can you long above 21600? I would not. We will likely get better pull-backs to 21550 or the 1h 20ema where r:r will be better. Invalidation is below 21450ish. bear case: Bears need a big surprise tomorrow or we will go higher again. They failed to make lower lows again and every bear bar after EU open printed big tails below it. Sure sign that bears are weak, despite the decent selling during Globex session. First target for bears is 21500 and if they get below 21450ish, they are favored to break below the bull wedge and go down further. Below targets are 21350, 21200 and then 21000. Invalidation is above 21900. short term: Neutral. Can go both ways but I think bulls are favored as long as the bull wedge holds. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying US open since bears just gave up after the gap close. Shorting 700 was also decent since every new high was heavily sold this week.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2025-02-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Huge gap down and bulls tried their best in making this an endless pull-back. Bears defended the gap to 21800 and even the Globex gap to 21700. As long as that stays open, bears can dream of a second leg down or at least retesting the lows. current market cycle: bull trend until we get a daily close below 21600. key levels: 21000 - 22000 bull case: Bulls bought the lows and closed the day 200 points higher. We have a clear bull wedge/channel up and as long as we don’t break below support, bulls can have an endless pull-back and move higher. Problem for them is that they were to weak to close the gap to 21700/800. Bulls now need to stay above 21450 and continue higher. If they poke couple more times at 21550, it will likely break and we move quickly higher. Bulls are not favored though. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears kept the gap open, Hooray. They need to break below 21450 and the bull wedge. Targets below are today’s open price 21398 and then 21200. My daily chart has a third bear target at 21080 and xetra closed 21428. The daily 20ema is there and a big open bull gap. Futures came very close to it, so it’s possible that this was all the bears get for now. Invalidation is above 21600. short term: Bullish above 21600 for 700/800. If we break below 21450, we will likely test 400 and then if bears are strong, below 21370 we go for 21200 again. Most likely is a continuation sideways between 21370 - 21550. medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full bear mode. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 21400 was decent for many scalps.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD corrected and recovered, as the US Dollar soaredOANDA:XAUUSD Spot prices fell below 2,780 USD/ounce and recovered slightly. As of the time this article was completed, gold prices were trading at around 2,783 USD/ounce, as the strong US Dollar overshadowed safe haven demand. after the United States announced tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China. On February 1, US President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China. The United States will also impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and Canada. On the evening of February 2 local time, Trump announced that he would "definitely" impose new tariffs on the European Union. While these developments typically boost safe-haven demand for precious metals, the stronger dollar and interest rate outlook have offset those pressures. The inflationary impact of tariffs could cause borrowing costs to remain high, which could put pressure on gold as it does not pay interest, while a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated gold expensive. red and less attractive. However, the current price decline is not something to worry about for the uptrend of gold prices, and in terms of general fundamental assessment, it still has a positive outlook in the near future when there are too many risks. with the potential for a long-lasting trade war. On the daily chart, OANDA:XAUUSD recovered after approaching the 0.236% trendline Fibonacci extension and is currently trading around 2,783USD. With its current position, gold still has conditions to increase in price with the price channel as the main trend and main support from the EMA21. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in the green uptrend. Although the room for growth is not much, it does not mean it is over. If gold breaks above the $2,785 technical level it will have upside conditions with a target then around $2,800 in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci extension. As long as gold remains within the price channel, above EMA21, it still has a bullish outlook and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,774 – 2,762USD Resistance: 2,785 – 2,800USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2827 - 2825⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2831 →Take Profit 1 2820 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2815 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2767 - 2769⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2763 →Take Profit 1 2774 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2779
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#202505 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Huge rejection right under the previous lower high, which now makes it 3 failed attempts to get above 22k and find acceptance. The selling on Friday was surprising enough to expect follow-through because many traders got trapped. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20000 - 22500 bull case: Bulls need to keep this a higher low above 21400 or risk that market will go much lower to 21200 or even 20600. The 50% retracement of this trading range is 21600 and market stopped around that price on Friday. No matter how you want to draw this right now, it’s either a descending triangle or a trading range and the bulls are not favored to buy this rejection again. They need a bigger surprise than the bears on Friday to stop this from going down. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears have now the best chance of doing another deep pullback below 21000. The surprise on Friday was big enough that we can expect follow-through selling. First bear target is to make a new low below 21419 and then we have 21200 as bigger previous support. Last target for next week would be around 20800 where market decides if we make lower lows or continue in this trading range under the ath. If you look at the weekly NDX chart, you can see that we are also in a bigger diamond pattern, which is just a form of a trading range with expanding and now contracting ranges. Invalidation is above 22000. short term: Bearish. I do think the top 21965 will hold and we go down from here. For now I doubt we will make lower lows below 20800 though. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear trend lines
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds