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Qualified for increases, but be careful with adjustmentsOANDA:XAUUSD remains in the rising channel after a significant downward correction since the recent record price rally and investors are focused on inflation data due out later this week and the latest developments on US President Donald Trump's tax plans. OANDA:XAUUSD was trading at nearly $2,905/oz as of press time, about 60Dollar below the all-time high reached on Monday after Trump announced his administration would impose 25% tariffs on the European Union without clarifying whether the tariffs would affect all EU exports or be limited to certain products or industries. At the same time, Trump also announced US tariffs on Mexico and Canada would take effect on April 2, delaying the original March 4 effective date. Late Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed he will maintain 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and added the European Union to the list of countries he will punish American consumers for importing goods from. Trump added that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect on April 2. Market participants will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump's next tariff policy. Tariff uncertainty could spur flows into safe assets, benefiting precious metals. Since Trump returned to power, his comments on the timing, scale and targeting of tariffs have often confused global markets and raised questions about his policies. This instability, coupled with geopolitical changes, highlights gold's role as a store of value in times of uncertainty. Gold prices have also been supported in recent days by weak U.S. economic data, which has traders expecting the Federal Reserve to make just two 25 basis point interest rate cuts this year. Lower borrowing costs typically favor gold because the metal doesn't pay interest. On the other hand, Trump's plan to raise tariffs could raise the Federal Reserve's concerns about inflation, which could convince the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. This may limit gold's rise. Looking ahead, investors will analyze Friday's core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favored measure of inflation, for more reading and anticipation of the direction of monetary policy. Basically, gold still has a lot of potential support as the recent decline was mainly due to profit-taking and partly affected by the cooling situation in Ukraine, which was brought to the attention of readers through daily publications and short comments. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold continues to decline as the recovery fails to take gold price above the POC Volume Profile and the Fibonacci point extends 0.236%. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also pointing down with a significant slope, showing that the price momentum is overwhelming because profit-taking activities in the market are overwhelming. It is very likely that gold will continue to decline more with a target of around 2,865 USD, this is also the confluence position of the lower edge of the price channel with EMA21, this support position is very important for the uptrend of gold prices in the medium term. Once gold is sold below $2,865, further downside will be noticed at $2,835 – $2,790 in the short term, so long protection levels should be placed behind this price point. Regarding the current position, gold still has enough upside conditions and notable levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,865USD Resistance: 2,933 – 2,946USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2941 - 2939⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2933 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2927 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2869 - 2871⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2865 →Take Profit 1 2877 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2883
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Dow Jones Bullish Setup for a Friday Dump?We've swept today's lows while also establishing a new high. This sets the stage for a strong buyback toward the 44,000 level, where we previously dumped last Friday. I am eyeing the areas around 43,470 & 43,562 as potential opening structures. With high-impact news closing out both the week and the month, we should see some solid volatility—presenting prime opportunities to capitalize on market moves. Let’s lock in⚡ Its too early to tell, but I am anticipating a crazy dump on Friday that will take us back to 2025 Open price.
CBOT_MINI:MYMH2025Long
by GeneralJWS
1
GOLD recovered after a 1.3% correction, paying attention to PCEOANDA:XAUUSD rose slightly on Wednesday (February 26), after a sharp 1.3% drop in the previous trading day, as traders took profits from a new record high set by gold. Spot gold prices fell to their lowest level in more than a week yesterday as investors took profits after a period of gold prices reaching record highs amid ongoing concerns about instability caused by US President Trump's tax imposition plan. OANDA:XAUUSD traded at nearly 2,915Dollar.oz, about $40 below the all-time high set on Monday. Gold prices have been supported in recent days by weak U.S. economic data that raised expectations the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in July, while President Donald Trump's growing tariff threats have increased safe-haven demand. In addition, gold is also receiving renewed attention from gold ETFs. Last week ETFs saw their largest net inflows since 2022, according to Bloomberg data. - The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its gold holdings by 0.29 tons compared to the previous day and the current gold holdings are 907.82 tons. - The world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust reduced its holdings by 73.62 tons compared to the previous day and its current holdings are 13,655.67 tons. Meanwhile, investors and economists expect the Fed to respond “robustly and systematically” to changes in inflation and the labor market, according to research released Monday by the San Francisco Federal Reserve. Rising inflation could force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold. Uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's use of tariffs as a negotiating tool has caused traders to become risk-averse. On Monday, Trump hinted that tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada would take effect next week, even as both countries work to combat fentanyl and illegal immigration. This week, key US data also includes durable goods orders, revised fourth-quarter GDP and the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After a shock correction in yesterday's trading session, gold recovered to maintain price activity above the original price level of 2,900 USD, which can be considered a positive signal when the downward momentum is limited. Downside corrections can occur at “shock” levels, which have come to the attention of readers in many publications whenever the market has been up for a long period of time and the Relative Strength Index enters the overbought area. This can be considered normal market activity, because any type of asset that increases or decreases in price does not move in a straight line. On the current daily chart, Gold still has bullish conditions with support from the trend channel and EMA21 as key support, on the other hand price activity above the $2,900 level also plays a positive role. As long as gold remains in the price channel, above EMA21, its main prospective trend is still bullish, price drops should only be considered short-term corrections. During the day, important positions will be highlighted as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880USD Resistance: 2,938 – 2,946USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2941 - 2939⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2933 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2927 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2876 - 2878⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2872 →Take Profit 1 2884 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2890
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Nasdaq volatility ahead into close of week!Wonderful opportunity to extract profits from the markets on current Nasdaq futures setup. Pay close attention to those buy-side & sell-side liquidity zones relative to the doji candle established on the 15min tf. Expect that range to be tested once again into London/NY sessions. Sell-side liquidity target expected to be reached at 21075-21090 levels, corresponding to 1.272 fibonacci extension target on sell structure. After that, I anticipate a strong buy sequence to 21440's buy-side target
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by DaveTradesLive
1
2025-02-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Very important day tomorrow. Bulls made a new high and higher lows. A breakout above would certainly open the path to the ath-retest 23000. Bulls have defended the bull trend line so far and if bears just step aside enough, we could print a big green day. Bears need lower lows below 22280 to keep this neutral and continue sideways. They would also then have a chance of breaking below the bull trend line and testing down to 22000. Important this day was. Bulls followed-through as expected but came short of 22900 and a new ath above 23000. Again we have clear invalidation prices for both sides. Above 22750 bulls could try again and continue inside the current bull channel. Below 22550 the bull channel is broken and 22500 has to hold or we flush to 22400. Below 400 is 22k and I do think there is a decent chance we could close February below 22000. Be prepared for some EU trade war news and this could become a risk-off event tomorrow. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22100 - 23000 bull case: Was this a lower high major trend reversal? Bulls keep the bull channel alive if they stay above 22550ish. If they do, they remain in control and we could try another run at 22900 or a new ath. Biggest problem for them sits in the White House and we can expect some trade war related news tomorrow, which could be a big trigger for another sell-off. Invalidation is below 22550. bear case: Bears have a good setup to crash this down. Double tops on multiple time frames and a news event that could be a huge risk-off event. I have given invalidation prices for both sides, set up notifications and trade accordingly. Invalidation is above 22750. short term: Neutral until prices break above or below my given targets. I dream of a February close below 22000. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long above 22600 as given yesterday. Was good for 280 points.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
NEARUSDT on a bullish climb! 🚀 The price BINANCE:NEARUSDT.P is moving steadily inside an ascending channel, testing *3.080 USDT* resistance. If the breakout holds, we could see a push toward higher levels! 🔑 *Key Levels:* **Support:** *3.051 USDT* – main level keeping the trend intact. *3.000 USDT* – deeper support if retracement kicks in. **Resistance:** *3.094 USDT* – key breakout point. *3.150 USDT* – potential next stop for bulls. 🚀 *Trading Strategy:* *Long Entry:* After confirming a breakout above *3.094 USDT*. *Stop-Loss:* Below *3.051 USDT* – protecting against fakeouts. *Profit Targets:* *3.120 USDT* – quick scalp target. *3.150 USDT* – solid take-profit zone. *3.200 USDT* – full bullish extension if momentum builds. 📊 *Technical Outlook:* Price respecting the channel = continuation likely. Volume picking up – signals increasing bullish interest. Failure to break resistance could lead to a pullback to support. 💡 *What to Watch?* Watch for volume confirmation on breakout! If resistance rejects, look for a retest at lower support before re-entering. Bulls in control, but risk management is key. Are we heading for a breakout or a pullback? Drop your thoughts! 🚀🔥
Long
by Max_Pr0fit
1
2025-02-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Very important day tomorrow. Bulls made a new high and higher lows. A breakout above would certainly open the path to the ath-retest 23000. Bulls have defended the bull trend line so far and if bears just step aside enough, we could print a big green day. Bears need lower lows below 22280 to keep this neutral and continue sideways. They would also then have a chance of breaking below the bull trend line and testing down to 22000. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22100 - 23000 bull case: Bulls give up above 22600 and we sold off on every touch since Thursday. If bulls want to retest 23000, they need to break strongly above 22600 and trap bears who are selling that price for 4 days now. The daily chart still looks bullish enough that bulls remain in control. We are above the daily ema, above the bull trend line and we still have a bullish gap from 22000 - 22300. Plan for tomorrow is to either get a strong breakout above 22600 to buy or look for longs around 22400 and continue with the higher lows. Invalidation is below 22300. bear case: Bears need lower lows again or bulls will become more aggressive for a ath retest. If 22600 continues as resistance we will likely go down to 22400 and there we will likely get a decision tomorrow. If we print higher lows again, the next touch of 22600 could get the breakout. Below 22400 the bull trend line could have become weak enough that we might do lower lows again and test down to 22200 or 22170 (last weeks low). Bearish plan is to wait and see if 22600 is still resistance and join the bears down to 22400 but keep a tight stop. I won’t bet on lower lows. Invalidation is above 22650. short term: Neutral. Clear plan given, mark the prices and set up alarms. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 22600 was the trade that worked since Thursday. Buying the EU open was also decent since 22300 has been support since Globex open on Monday.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
Targeting a new era peak, risks blanket the marketOANDA:XAUUSD hit another all-time high as U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs increased market fears of a global trade war, boosting safe-haven demand. Trump's tariff policy and global market reaction Trump said on Wednesday that he would announce new tariffs on lumber, autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals "next month or sooner." Since taking office on January 20, Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on imports from China and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. As trade risks increase, global central banks are likely to continue buying gold, which is one of the key supporting factors for gold prices. Ukraine situation and the possibility of gold correction in the short term Trump also criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as a "dictator" on Wednesday and warned that Ukraine must quickly reach a peace deal with Russia or lose the country. If a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is reached, geopolitical tensions could temporarily ease in the short term, which could put pressure on gold prices. However, gold still has enough fundamental support and the long-term uptrend could continue. Fed policy and Swiss gold exports soar Minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting released Wednesday showed that Trump's early economic policies have raised concerns about rising inflation. This reinforces the Fed's stance on maintaining the current interest rate policy. According to foreign media, Swiss customs data showed that Swiss gold exports increased significantly year-on-year in January, with gold exports to the United States reaching their highest level in at least 13 years. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold reached the target level of 2,946 USD, readers noted in the previous issue that the price point of the Fibonacci extension was 0.382%, it broke this level to renew its all-time high. With the current position, if gold takes price action above the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level once again, it will have conditions to continue to increase with a target then around 2,971 USD in the short term, more than 2,996 – 3,000 USD. The relative strength index also does not indicate any possibility of a downward correction in terms of momentum. During the day, the short-term uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by trend, and as long as gold remains in the price channel, it still has a main bullish outlook, declines should only be considered as short-term corrections or a buying opportunity. Notable locations will also be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,922 – 2,915USD Resistance: 2,954 – 2,971 – 2,996USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2971 - 2969⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2975 →Take Profit 1 2963 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2957 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2909 - 2911⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2905 →Take Profit 1 2917 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2923
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Minor correction, GOLD renewed its peakOANDA:XAUUSD spiked to a record high on Monday as concerns about Trump's tax plans fueled safe-haven demand, and inflows into the world's largest gold ETF also provided further support. Although there have been adjustments as of the time this article was completed, this price decrease is insignificant, currently gold is trading around 2,940USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of 0.41% on the day. OANDA:XAUUSD hit an intraday high of $2,956.29 an ounce on Monday, a record high and the 11th all-time high refresh this year. The US Dollar Index (Dxy) hit its lowest since December 10 last year in intraday trading on Monday, making gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Another positive news for gold was that the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 1 basis point to 4.443%. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, announced its gold holdings rose to 904.38 tons last Friday, the highest level since August 2023. Trump says tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be imposed on time US President Donald Trump said on Monday that comprehensive US tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will take effect as scheduled after a one-month reprieve ends next week. Trump signed an executive order on February 1 imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. However, on February 3, Trump announced that new tariffs would be postponed for 30 days as Mexican President Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau both pledged to increase border enforcement. According to Trump's announcement, tariffs on Canadian goods will be deferred for 30 days, while tariffs on Mexican imports will be deferred for one month. Markets generally believe that these tariff plans will cause inflation and potentially trigger a trade war, thereby increasing demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although on the daily chart, the RSI shows that the buying force is "exhausted" with price activity in the overbought area, the corrections that have occurred are not significant because the RSI has not yet gone below the 80 level with its steep slope. Looking at the technical chart, staying above $2,940 is a bullish factor and if gold continues to trade above the 0.382% Fibonacci extension it has a bullish outlook and a target then around $2,971 in the short term. The trend will still act as a short-term trend, even in case it breaks below, the main outlook for gold is still bullish with the price channel and EMA21 as main support. However, the market will not move in a straight line, so traders must always be ready for large downward corrections that can occur when RSI operates for a long time in the overbought area. In terms of trading, trades should be trend-based with support and resistance positions noted again as follows. Support: 2,922 – 2,915USD Resistance: 2,946 – 2,956 – 2,971USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2971 - 2969⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2975 →Take Profit 1 2963 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2957 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2909 - 2911⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2905 →Take Profit 1 2917 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2923
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2025-02-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears have turned 21650 (last weeks low) resistance, which is a huge sign of strength. Their problem is, that they could not break below the previous bear trend line and as long as that holds, we could have another bounce from 21400 up to 500 or 600. It’s a clear bear wedge and I think the next push down would bring us much closer to the bull trend line around 21200. For now I still don’t have any confidence in the bears to make new lows below 20900. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 21700 bull case: Bulls bought the dip but it keeps dipping. They failed to get above Friday’s low 21650 and after 2h of trying bulls gave up and we closed at new lows. Bulls now need to keep the bear wedge alive and buy 21400 to test back up to 21500 or 600. Market is respecting the trend lines and 1h ema. So don’t bet on a breakout of either. Wait for it to happen and tag along. Bulls can only turn this neutral with consecutive 1h closes above the 20ema. Invalidation is below 21300. bear case: Bears did amazing, which is surprising to me. They have no erased 2 weeks of gains in 3 days. Interesting to say the least. Lower targets are 21200, followed by 21000 and 20940. The bear wedge is valid until broken and I wait for the Globex open to see if bulls buy 21400 or bears want blood. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect the trend lines to hold and chop some up to at least 21500 and getting closer to the 1h ema before we can have a third leg down. Invalidation is above 21700. short term: Bearish near the 1h 20ema or upper bear wedge line. Would be amazing to see 21000 this week but for now I still have doubts. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000. trade of the day: Buying the Globex open obviously and then shorting 21600 once we broke below the 15m ema again at bar 52 or 53.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
#202508 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Much more neutral again, since we are exactly at the 50% retracement of the recent bull leg. We are in a 4 month trading range and the middle is the worst place to take trades, at least on higher time frames. I do think bears will get follow-through and we will see 21300 or lower next week but we could also have a bounce first. Is this also still a bull trend? Yes. Only below 20600 we are making meaningful lower lows and market would have a chance of testing 20000. If you look at the weekly or monthly chart, there is no doubt that this is still a bull trend until we go below the 2024-08 lows below 17900. These time frames are good to look at on a weekly basis to remind you where we are but your daytrading should not be affected by it too much if at all. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 22500 bull case: 22k failed and we went down to the 50% retracement. Bulls just have to buy here or we will go down 300-500 points lower early next week. What are the odds that this was another spike and now we strongly move back up again? That’s the question probably everyone is trying to guess. All previous spikes over the past 2 weeks were bought heavily and this could be as well. I have no opinion on who is likely to win this, so I think it’s 50/50, as it’s probably the best answer, given that we are at the most neutral price again. Targets above are 21950 breakout price, 22000 big round number and then likely the high at 22320 or even 22500 for a new ath. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Very strong selling on Friday by the bears. The odds of this happening on an Opex day are low. We are not at the 50% retracement and I have no idea if we get immediate follow-through down or not. Every time I have no bias, I am neutral and expect sideways movement. Since the bears closed the week at the very low, they remain in control until proven otherwise, no matter my neutral stance. If they keep it below the 15m or 1h 20ema, we could just continue down. The next lower targets are 21400 which would close the first gap and then 21200 which is my next bull trend line but that one is a big uncertainty. Below is obviously 21000 and I think the odds are decent we could get there over the course of next week. Invalidation is above 20900. short term: Neutral but if bears keep the bounce very shallow and below the 15m or 1h ema, I lean heavily bearish for 21400 or even 21000. The momentum is clearly on the bear side but given that Friday was Opex and some fishy news came out, I’d rather be neutral going into next week. The high was certainly high enough to qualify as another rejection above 22000 and market is free to test lower or even make new lows. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000. current swing trade: None chart update: Only removed lines and added potential targets for both sides. Only clear pattern right now are the bull wedges on the weekly/monthly chart.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
#202508 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: How fitting that the week where I gave up on bearish targets, that we start to see big selling again. Bears certainly surprised with the intensity all of a sudden but it’s the nature of markets that highs get retested. After such a climactic move up, it is not wise to get uber bearish on the first sign of bear strength. Market has moved down very quickly now to important magnets and until they are clearly broken, I will not bet on a breakout below. I stop with the xetra update because I always questioned the decision to do xetra analysis as well. Is this really worth it because of the gaps or are futures just as good? What shattered my case was the futures 23000 touch and strong sell-off. You can not convince me that xetra is more important to most algo’s after this. No more xetra, only futures. If you do not trade futures, calculate the difference between eurex dax futures and your symbol and you are good. It’s not that hard and if it is, hit me up and I explain it to you. current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000 key levels: 22000 - 23000 bull case: Bulls see this is a pull-back in a bull trend, down to obvious support. The last time we dipped to the daily 20ema, we rallied 1800 points afterwards. It’s hard to imagine this going to 24000 but I think it’s more likely than continuous selling through the bull trend line and daily ema and 22000. Too much support and important magnets to not expect a bounce. Targets for the bulls are 22400 and then 22600 which is the 50% of the bear leg and then probably already 23000 again. It’s likely that the market has to move sideways first before we can go higher. Right now we are still in a strong sell-off where the market is not touching the 4h ema on the pull-backs. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears are in a spike and channel bear trend and until bulls can make higher highs above 22500 again, bears are in full control. Problem for their case is, who is willing to sell at multiple support in hopes of further downside after such a big rally? We will likely get our answer early on Monday. I think bears are absolutely not favored here and will give up quickly if bulls start the week strong. What I do think is that any upside will probably be limited to around 23000. For now I need to see how Globex opens and if we bottom out around 22200 or need to get to 22000 before we can bounce. Below 21900 I think the odds favor a flush down another 800-1000 points. Invalidation is above 23000. short term: Neutral but if bulls show strength, bullish for retest 23000. Problem is that we could go down to 22000 as well and right now I don’t want to risk 300-400 points on longs. Below 21900 this could drop much much lower though. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next. current swing trade: None chart update: Highlighted current bull channel.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
Can ES Hold Steady? This week’s data and Nvidia earnings (Feb 26) are pivotal. Options Positioning Volume: High, with daily averages ~1.5M contracts (CME data trends). Expect ~1.7M this week due to macro catalysts. Call vs. Put Skew: Call-heavy (1.4:1), reflecting hedging against a pullback and speculative upside bets. Key Strikes: NTM (6,000–6,050): GEX high (+$300M), IV ~25%, DEX balanced. Gamma pinning likely keeps NYSE:ES stable early week (Feb 24–25) unless data shifts sentiment. OTM Calls (6,100–6,150): GEX moderate (+$150M), VEX positive, IV 30%. Heavy OI (40,000 contracts) at 6,100 suggests a volatility spike target if Nvidia beats and PCE cools. OTM Puts (5,900–5,950): GEX low (+ LSE:80M ), VEX flat, IV ~20%. Put buying reflects downside hedges if PCE surprises hot (>2.7%). Term Structure: March futures (~6,050) in slight contango, but a volatility event (e.g., Nvidia miss) could flip to backwardation, boosting OTM call IV. Key Data Releases and Impact Feb 25 – Consumer Confidence: <110 lifts NYSE:ES to 6,000; >115 pushes to 6,100. Feb 26 – Q4 GDP: <2.5% supports 5,950–6,000; >3% pressures to 5,900 on inflation fears. Feb 26 – Nvidia Earnings: Beat holds 6,050–6,100; miss drops to 5,900–5,950. Feb 28 – PCE: <2.5% lifts to 6,150; >2.7% sinks to 5,900, spiking OTM put volume. Forecast: Range: 5,900–6,150. Base case: 6,000–6,050 unless PCE or Nvidia disrupts.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
NASDAQ Future long: after resitance broken, new support formed Current Analysis: Nasdaq futures are currently facing a critical support at 22100 I see the chance of a Bullish rebound: Support Strength: This support was a resistance in past weeks, then it was broken on Feb 14th and act as support in last 3 days. Additionally, from Dec. 17th to February 12th, price formed a triangle that was broken up on Feb.13th. Expected Movement: If the price successfully breaks above 22100, I expect it to rally towards the $22400 area. Action Plan: Entry Point: entered long with limit order at 22100 Target: Set a target in the $22425 (high of December 17th) Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at 21937.75, below minimum of Feb.20th and with Risk/Reward Ratio of 2.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by dPEngineering
2025-02-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Interesting day ahead of us. Selling was strong but bulls retraced 70% of it already. If bears come around again and keep this a lower high below 22230, it would show some strength and we could expect another test of 22000. The daily chart looks much more bullish than bearish. Big tails below bars and all bars closing above their mid-point. We have also touched the bull trend line above the daily 20ema. If anything I have a long bias but due to Opex I tend to lean neutral for tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 22000 - 22500 bull case: Another dip another bad follow-through. Bulls buy it all and they have all the arguments on their side. They bought where they had to and we now have a decent two-legged pull-back to the bull trend line. Market is free to melt higher but tomorrow is opex and I fare best when I lean neutral on those days and trade less. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears can generate enough selling pressure to go down hard but as soon as the momentum is gone, so are the bears and market just reverses. I doubt bears can keep this a lower high and continue inside the bear channel. If they do, a weekly close below 22k would be amazing for them. That is the only target I have for them for tomorrow because I can’t imagine this going below 21900. Above 22200 bears just have to cover and we could accelerate upwards. Invalidation is above 22230. short term: Neutral. No bigger opinion on who wins this tomorrow. Both have reasonable arguments and we are inside the big bull channel and now also inside a bear channel. I wait for strong momentum again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-16: Bulls are on their way of making a new ath again. So no bearish thoughts until market character changes dramatically again. I can see this going up to 23000 but not beyond. No bigger opinion on a medium-term outlook for this. trade of the day: Buying 22k. Was close enough to the bull trend line, daily 20ema and bears found no acceptance below it.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds