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GOLD hits Bullish targets, heading for all-time highAs tariff uncertainty pushed money into safe havens, cooling US inflation kept market expectations of a Fed rate cut intact and optimism over a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine cooled, OANDA:XAUUSD surged and broke out of its recent sideways consolidation trading range. OANDA:XAUUSD surged past the $2,942/oz target on safe-haven demand. Weaker US CPI data also supported expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, pushing gold higher. The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-on-year in February, slightly below the 2.9% expected and down from January's 3.0%. The year-on-year increase in the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, eased to 3.1% from January's 3.3%. Recent news of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine also cooled earlier optimism. British news agency Reuters reported on Wednesday that Russian officials were skeptical about the U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that the Kremlin was still waiting for the United States to announce its proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine. The Kremlin needs to hear the results of the U.S.-Ukraine talks before commenting on whether Russia can accept the ceasefire. Commenting on a ceasefire proposal that has been accepted by both U.S. and Ukrainian officials, an influential Russian lawmaker insisted on Wednesday that any deal must be reached on Russian terms, not U.S. A senior Russian source said President Vladimir Putin would be unlikely to agree to a ceasefire proposal without finalizing the terms and receiving some guarantees. Ukraine accepted a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia on Tuesday in exchange for the Trump administration resuming suspended military aid and intelligence sharing. The deal was announced by US and Ukrainian officials after eight hours of talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. Trump said US officials would meet with their Russian counterparts on Wednesday and he could meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. The World Gold Council (WGC) revealed that central banks continued to buy gold. The People's Bank of China and the National Bank of Poland added 10 tonnes and 29 tonnes of gold, respectively, in the first two months of 2025. Traders will next keep a close eye on the release of the US producer price index (PPI) for February, initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. OANDA:XAUUSD technical outlook analysis On the daily chart, as of the time of writing, gold has achieved all the bullish targets noted by readers in the weekly publication, along with all the conditions for the possibility of a price increase when there is no more resistance ahead other than the all-time high. The short-term price channel is noted as the trend at the moment, along with the Relative Strength Index RSI maintaining above 50, surpassing 61, showing that the bullish momentum dominates the market and there is still a lot of room for price increase ahead because it is still quite far from reaching the overbought area. The most notable supports now are the $2,929 level in the short term, followed by the EMA21 area. Overall, the uptrend is dominating on the daily chart, with notable price levels listed below. Support: $2,929 – $2,915 Resistance: $2,956 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2761 - 2974⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2980 →Take Profit 1 2968 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2962 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2904 - 2906⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2900 →Take Profit 1 2912 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2918
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
What Are Financial Derivatives and How to Trade Them?What Are Financial Derivatives and How to Trade Them? Financial derivatives are powerful instruments used by traders to speculate on market movements or manage risk. From futures to CFDs, derivatives offer potential opportunities across global markets. This article examines “What is a derivative in finance?”, delving into the main types of derivatives, how they function, and key considerations for traders. What Are Derivatives? A financial derivative is a contract with its value tied to the performance of an underlying asset. These assets can include stocks, commodities, currencies, ETFs, or market indices. Instead of buying the asset itself, traders and investors use derivatives to speculate on price movements or manage financial risk. Fundamentally, derivatives are contracts made between two parties. They allow one side to take advantage of changes in the asset's price, whether it rises or falls. For example, a futures contract locks in a price for buying or selling an asset on a specific date, while a contract for difference (CFD) helps traders speculate on the price of an asset without owning it. The flexibility of derivatives is what makes them valuable. They can hedge against potential losses, potentially amplify returns through leverage, or provide access to otherwise difficult-to-trade markets. Derivatives are traded either on regulated exchanges or through over-the-counter (OTC) markets, each with distinct benefits and risks. Leverage is a very common feature in derivative trading, enabling traders to control larger positions with less capital. However, it’s worth remembering that while this amplifies potential returns, it equally increases the risk of losses. These instruments play a pivotal role in modern finance, offering tools to navigate market volatility or target specific investment goals. However, their complexity means they require careful understanding and strategic use to potentially avoid unintended risks. Key Types of Financial Derivatives There are various types of derivatives, each tailored to different trading strategies and financial needs. Understanding the main type of derivative can help traders navigate their unique features and applications. Below are the most common examples of derivatives: Futures Contracts Futures involve a contract to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a specific future date. These contracts are standardised and traded on exchanges, making them transparent and widely accessible. Futures are commonly used in commodities markets—like oil or wheat—but also extend to indices and currencies. Traders commonly utilise this type of derivative to potentially manage risks associated with price fluctuations or to speculate on potential market movements. Forward Contracts A forward contract is a financial agreement in which two parties commit to buying or selling an asset at a predetermined price on a specified future date. Unlike standardised futures contracts, forward contracts are customizable and traded privately, typically over-the-counter (OTC). These contracts are commonly used for hedging or speculating on price movements of assets such as commodities, currencies, or financial instruments. Swaps Swaps are customised contracts, typically traded over-the-counter (OTC). The most common types are interest rate swaps, where two parties agree to exchange streams of interest payments based on a specified notional amount over a set period, and currency swaps, which involve the exchange of principal and interest payments in different currencies. Swaps are primarily used by institutions to manage long-term exposure to interest rates or currency risks. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) CFDs allow traders to speculate on price changes of an underlying asset. They are flexible, covering a wide range of markets such as shares, commodities, and indices. CFDs are particularly attractive as they allow traders to speculate on rising and falling prices of an asset without owning it. Moreover, CFDs provide potential opportunities for short-term trading, which may be unavailable with other financial instruments. Trading Derivatives: Mechanisms and Strategies Trading derivatives revolves around two primary methods: exchange-traded and over-the-counter (OTC) markets. Each offers potential opportunities for traders, depending on their goals and risk tolerance. Exchange-Traded Derivatives These derivatives, like futures, are standardised and traded on regulated exchanges such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Standardisation ensures transparency, making it potentially easier for traders to open buy or sell positions. For example, a trader might use futures contracts to hedge against potential price movements in commodities or indices. Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives OTC derivatives, including swaps and forwards and contracts for difference, are negotiated directly between two parties. These contracts are highly customisable but may carry more counterparty risk, as they aren't cleared through a central exchange. Institutions often use OTC derivatives for tailored solutions, such as managing interest rate fluctuations. Strategies for Trading Derivatives Traders typically employ derivatives for speculation or hedging. Speculation involves taking positions based on anticipated market movements, such as buying a CFD if prices are expected to rise. Hedging, on the other hand, can potentially mitigate losses in an existing portfolio by offsetting potential risks, like using currency swaps to protect against foreign exchange volatility. Risk management plays a crucial role when trading derivatives. Understanding the underlying asset, monitoring market conditions, and using appropriate position sizes are vital to navigating their complexity. CFD Trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are among the most accessible derivative products for retail traders. They allow for speculation on price movements across a wide range of markets, including stocks, commodities, currencies, and indices, without owning the underlying asset. This flexibility makes CFDs an appealing option for individuals looking to diversify their strategies and explore global markets. How CFDs Work CFDs represent an agreement between the trader and the broker to exchange the difference in an asset's price between the opening and closing of a trade. If the price moves in the trader’s favour, the broker pays the difference; if it moves against them, the trader covers the loss. This structure is straightforward, allowing retail traders to trade in both rising and falling markets. Why Retail Traders Use CFDs Retail traders often gravitate towards CFDs due to their accessibility and unique features. CFDs allow leverage trading. By depositing a smaller margin, traders can gain exposure to much larger positions, potentially amplifying returns. However, you should remember that this comes with heightened risk, as losses are also magnified. Markets and Opportunities CFDs offer exposure to an extensive range of markets, including stocks, forex pairs, commodities, and popular indices like the S&P 500. Retail traders particularly appreciate the ability to trade these markets with minimal upfront capital, as well as the availability of 24/5 trading for many instruments. CFDs also enable traders to access international markets they might otherwise find difficult to trade, such as Asian or European indices. Traders can explore a variety of CFDs with FXOpen. Considerations for CFD Trading While CFDs offer potential opportunities, traders must approach them cautiously. Leverage and high market volatility can lead to significant losses. Effective risk management in derivatives, meaning using stop-loss orders or limiting position sizes, can help traders potentially navigate these risks. Additionally, costs like spreads, commissions, and overnight fees can add up, so understanding the total cost structure is crucial. Key Considerations When Trading Derivatives Trading derivatives requires careful analysis and a clear understanding of the associated risks and potential opportunities. Understanding the Underlying Asset The value of a derivative depends entirely on its underlying asset, whether it’s a stock, commodity, currency, or index. Analysing the asset’s price behaviour, market trends, and potential volatility is crucial to identifying potential opportunities and risks. Choosing the Right Derivative Product Different derivatives serve different purposes. Futures might suit traders looking for exposure to commodities or indices, while CFDs provide accessible and potential opportunities for those seeking short-term price movements. Matching the derivative to your strategy is vital. Managing Risk Effectively Risk management plays a significant role in trading derivatives. Leverage can amplify both returns and losses, so traders often set clear limits on position sizes and overall exposure. Stop-loss orders and diversification are common ways to potentially reduce the impact of adverse market moves. Understanding Costs Trading derivatives involves costs like spreads, commissions, and potential overnight financing fees. These can eat into potential returns, especially for high-frequency or leveraged trades. A clear understanding of these expenses may help traders evaluate the effectiveness of their strategies. Monitoring Market Conditions Derivatives are sensitive to their underlying market changes, from geopolitical events to macroeconomic data. In stock derivatives, this might be company earning reports or sudden shifts in management. Staying informed helps traders adapt to shifting conditions and avoid being caught off guard by sudden price swings. The Bottom Line Financial derivatives are versatile tools for trading and hedging, offering potential opportunities to access global markets and diversify strategies. While their complexity demands a solid understanding, they can unlock significant potential for informed traders. Ready to explore derivatives trading? Open an FXOpen account today to trade CFDs on more than 700 assets with competitive costs, fast execution, and advanced trading tools. Good luck! FAQ What Is a Derivative? The derivatives definition refers to a financial contract whose value is based on the performance of an underlying asset, such as stocks, commodities, currencies, or indices. Derivatives are financial instruments used to hedge risk, speculate on price movements, or access specific markets. Examples include futures, forwards, swaps, and contracts for difference (CFDs). What Are the 4 Main Derivatives? The primary categories of derivatives are futures, forwards, swaps, and contracts for difference (CFDs). Futures are commonly traded on exchanges, while forwards, swaps and CFDs are usually traded over-the-counter (OTC). Each serves different purposes, from risk management to speculative trading. What Is the Derivatives Market? The derivatives market is where financial derivatives are bought and sold. It includes regulated exchanges, like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and OTC markets where customised contracts are negotiated directly between parties. This market supports hedging, speculation, and risk transfer across global financial systems. What Is the Difference Between Derivatives and Equities? Equities signify ownership in a company, typically in the form of stock shares. Derivatives, on the other hand, are contracts that derive their value from the performance of an underlying asset, which can include equities. Unlike equities, derivatives do not confer ownership. Is an ETF a Derivative? No, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) is not a derivative. It is a fund that tracks a basket of assets, such as stocks or bonds, and trades like a stock. However, ETFs can use derivatives, such as futures, to achieve their investment objectives. Is the S&P 500 a Derivative? No, the S&P 500 is not a derivative. It is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 large companies listed in the US. Derivatives, like futures, can be created based on the S&P 500’s performance. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYMEX:CLJ2025Education
by FXOpen
1
GOLD recovers and stays above $2,900, pay attention to CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded, driven mainly by safe-haven flows as trade war concerns dampened market risk sentiment and markets focused on US inflation data. TVC:DXY hit a four-month low, making gold more attractive. Meanwhile, the main event of the week is the US CPI report today (March 12), which could cause major market moves. Positive data could lead to a sharp sell-off in gold, while weak data could give the green light for further gains in gold. CPI is expected to have risen 0.3% in February, according to a Reuters poll. The New York Federal Reserve's latest consumer expectations survey forecasts inflation at 3.1% over the next year, up slightly from 3% in January. Markets are now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, in terms of trend, gold is still in the accumulation phase after recovering from the $2,880 level noted by readers in the previous editions and the break above the $2,900 level provides conditions for further testing of the $2,929 level in the short term. For now, gold is still trading around the EMA21 and is still in a consolidation state, but in terms of technical conditions, it is more likely to increase in price. With the price channel as a short-term trend, and the RSI activity above 50, quite far from the overbought zone, it shows that the bullish momentum is still ahead. However, the technical chart still needs a strong impact to break the current accumulation structure. And during the day, the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 - 2,880 USD Resistance: 2,929 - 2,942 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2961 - 2959⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2965 →Take Profit 1 2953 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2947 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2899 - 2901⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2895 →Take Profit 1 2907 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2913
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2025-03-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears are clearly in control and we have two bear trend lines above us. One around 22600 and the bigger one around 23000. Bulls need to claim 22900 and bears obviously want 22k. Absolutely no idea what we get first. Buying volume increased big time at previous low around 22300 but overall market sentiment has to reverse. I can not see dax rallying 2%+ if us indexes stay at the lows. 22400 is the neutral price, so don’t trade it. current market cycle: trading range - bull trend clearly broken now key levels: 22000 - 24000 bull case: Bulls need to get back above 22800 if they want further upside. For now they have buy new lows and scalp. For bulls to reverse this, they would need to print a clear higher low and trapping late bears. Market can not rally, if we make lower lows the whole time. Not much for bulls here and it could be because they expect 22k to be hit and want to buy that. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears want to finally print 22000 again. last time we did was early February. Problem for them is, we are at huge previous support. Should you bet that the breakout will happen? Never. Wait for it to happen and join along and wait for a bounce to sell higher. Any bounce has to stay below 22600 and then we can continue down. Selling below 22400 is bad, no matter what. Bears remain in control until the current bear channel is broken. Invalidation is above 23600. short term: Neutral around 22400. Bearish above 22500 if we stall too much and bears come around again. If bulls stay above 22300/22400 and print a lower high, I will join them if us markets do the same. I expect a huge bounce soon. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying during the Globex session was fun and then selling above 22800 again, since it was resistance from yesterday. Where should you have sold? Market hit 22835 and then only printed lower highs for 7 15m bars. That was certainly strong enough to cover longs.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD recovers to trade around $2,900, still has a lot of supportOANDA:XAUUSD has stabilized and recovered after falling more than $20 yesterday and is now trading around $2,900. Earlier, investor concerns about a US economic slowdown caused a broad decline in stocks and commodities, dragging down precious metals, especially gold. OANDA:XAUUSD held above $2,880 after falling nearly 1% on Monday. US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that the US economy could get worse before it gets better and that he was adjusting trade policy through tariffs, fueling market concerns about a possible economic recession. When broader financial markets take a hit, investors may sell gold to cover losses in other assets, causing the price of gold to fall in the short term. Gold prices have rallied 10% so far this year, hitting a new high. The rally has been fueled by uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s policies, central bank purchases of gold, and expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates further. Lower borrowing costs typically benefit non-yielding assets like gold. While rising gold prices have dented physical demand in some major Asian economies, inflows into gold ETFs have remained steady. Holdings of gold ETFs hit their highest level since December 2023 as of last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Investors had begun to reduce their exposure to gold ahead of Monday’s sharp market sell-off. Hedge funds’ long gold positions fell to their lowest in nine weeks, according to the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). While this correction appears to be broad-based, the underlying forces will still be a solid support for gold's upside potential, from the geopolitical landscape to Trump's policies creating global trade conflicts to expectations of Fed rate cuts. Overall, gold still has a lot of support. Markets focus on US inflation data and Fed policy expectations Investors are now focused on upcoming US inflation data to gauge whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) – due on Wednesday US Producer Price Index (PPI) – due on Thursday Traders are now fully pricing in the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that it is not yet known whether the Trump administration’s tariff policies will lead to higher inflation. In general, lower interest rates increase the appeal of gold because it is a non-interest-bearing asset, making it cheaper to hold than other assets. OANDA:XAUUSD Technical Outlook Analysis On the daily chart, after gold fell to the support level noted by readers in the previous issue at 2,880 USD, it received support to recover, currently trading around 2,900 USD. A break above the 2,900 USD price level would be considered a positive signal with the next target being the EMA21 area, followed by 2,929 USD rather than 2,942 USD. In the short term, gold has not yet shown a specific trend when entering the accumulation phase, which is described by 2 green trend lines. But in the medium and long term, the possibility of price increase is still very good when in terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index RSI is still above 50. During the day, gold is in the accumulation phase with the main trend leaning towards price increase, the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,880 - 2,868 USD Resistance: 2,900 - 2,929 - 2,942 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2908 - 2906⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2912 →Take Profit 1 2900 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2894 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2857 - 2859⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2853 →Take Profit 1 2865 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2871
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Putting the current pullback from ATHs into context ES FuturesCME_MINI:ES1! Big Picture: ATH on December 6th, 2024: 6,184.50 There has been no significant correction or pullback since the ATH. Currently, the market has pulled back ~8.20% from the ATH. The previous correction (over a 10% pullback, but less than a 20% downturn) occurred after ES futures hit an all-time high of 5,856 on July 15th, 2024. The market bottomed out on August 5th, 2024. Currently, ES futures are trading below the 50% retracement level from the ATH on December 6th, 2024, and the swing low on August 5th, 2024, at 5,719.25. Given the current "risk-off" sentiment, let's review the updated price map for ES Futures. Key Levels: Important level to reclaim if no correction: 5,795.25 - 5,800 Key LVN (Low Volume Node): 5,738 - 5,696 Mid 2024 range: 5,574.50 Key Support: 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 2024 YTD mCVAL (Market Composite Value Area Low): 5,449.25 2022 CVAH (Composite Value Area High): 5,280 Key Support: 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 This zone is important in the event of a 10% pullback, which could lead to a bounce thereafter. On our regular 4-hour time frame, which we use for weekly analysis and preparation, higher lows have been breached, and ES futures are now trading below the lows from November 4th, 2024, January 13th, 2025, and February 28th, 2025. The probable next downside target is the 50% retracement of the 2024 range, which stands at 5,574.50. Unless we see a sustained bounce that reclaims the 5,795.25 - 5,800 zone, the key support level at 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 is likely to be tested, aligning with our expected 10% pullback. Note that a bear market (i.e., a pullback greater than 20%) wouldn't begin until prices drop to around 4,900, which is still about 750 points away from the current price level of 5,650. Considering all the above, what can we expect this week? CPI and PPI data are due this week, and the market is currently in "risk-off" mode. This sentiment is exacerbated by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on needing more data before altering rate path, combined with tariffs complicating the US economy. What price level might prompt policymakers to adjust their stance? The Fed’s dual mandate considers both 2% inflation and low unemployment. With the unemployment rate edging above 4% and inflation remaining high, this upcoming inflation reading is critical. We believe this report may trigger volatility not seen in recent months with CPI releases. We have the SEP and FOMC rate decision coming up on March 19th, 2024. Scenario 1: Soft CPI than expectations Expecting volatile price action, however, a V-shaped recovery given softer CPI reading. Markets go in wait and see Scenario 2: Range bound week In this scenario, we expect a range bound week, with inflation print in line and markets in wait and see mode for FED FOMC announcement. Scenario 3: High CPI print With a higher CPI print, FED will be in a difficult position to cut rates. Will this bad news be bad for the market or good? Mounting risks point to further downside if we do not get any pivot on macro level to support the economy.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
GOLD falls slightly as Dollar recovers, news, main trendsOANDA:XAUUSD has just dropped to around $2,912/ounce, down nearly $10 from the intraday high of $2,918/ounce reached earlier in the session. The recovery of the US Dollar can be seen as the current pressure causing gold prices to slightly decline from the intraday high. Overview of data and event news The Labor Department report showed the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, compared with economists polled by Reuters who expected a gain of 160,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, compared with expectations of 4%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said early Friday that the Fed would take a cautious approach to easing monetary policy, adding that the economy “remains in good shape.” While gold is a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates could reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. The market is now expecting the Fed to continue cutting interest rates starting in June, with a total of 76 basis points of interest rate cuts over the rest of the year. Market attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. In addition, inflation reports and retail sales data will also provide additional guidance for market trends in general and the gold market in particular. On the daily chart, gold is generally still in the accumulation phase with the positioning conditions tilted towards the upside. The short-term trend is highlighted by the price channel, while the nearest support is the EMA21 and the technical level of 2,900 USD. At the raw price point of 2,900 USD, it also created significant price increases in the last 2 days of the weekend. The relative strength index is facing some resistance from the 61 level noted in the previous issue, where once the RSI breaks this level it will continue to head towards the oversold zone which is a signal that will facilitate the possibility of gold price increasing in terms of momentum. In the coming time, as long as gold remains above 2,900 USD, it will still tend to be bullish in the short term, and the target continues to be the all-time high or higher. The notable technical price points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868 USD Resistance: 2,929 – 2,942 – 2,956 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2956 - 2954⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2960 →Take Profit 1 2948 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2942 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2877 - 2879⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2873 →Take Profit 1 2885 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2891
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#202510 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear rejections around 20000 are getting stronger and we could have seen the intermediate lows on Friday. I lean heavily bullish since we have touched the big bull trend line and market reacted there as expected. Bounce up could easily go for 21k again, which is the 50% retracement. Again. Bears need to form a proper wider channel down if they want lower prices. The past 3 weeks of selling were getting climactic and unsustainable. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19500 - 21400 bull case: Very bullish daily bar on Friday and bulls need follow-through to trigger a short squeeze. They want at least 21k again and if bears are not strong enough there, this selling could already be over again. 50% retracement is 21k and two big magnets are enough for me to have this as my main target next week. Bulls have to stay above 20k or they risk more poking at the bull trend line that started 2 years ago. On the monthly chart we are in a perfect bull wedge that has room to the upside and a bounce would fit the structure much more than a break below 19700. Invalidation is below 20400. bear case: Bears have shown strength for 3 consecutive weeks but are they really gonna fight the big trend line before we had a bounce? Selling around 20k is bad, no matter how you look at it. My measured move target for the bears was 19600 and the low was 19766. I really don’t have much for the bears at these lows. Sure we can continue down but it’s very unlikely. Best bears could get is probably sideways movement and if they are really strong, we stay below 20400. Invalidation is above 20400. short term: Neutral until bulls continue. Heavy bullish bias going into next week. I doubt we go much lower than 19766. 21k is my target. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000. current swing trade: None chart update: Updated possible bigger wave thesis for the next months. Until we have a W2 and new lows afterwards, it’s a rough guess.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 10 - March 14]OANDA:XAUUSD have recovered strongly this week, rising from $2,858/oz to $2,930/oz before adjusting to $2,910/oz. The main reason is political tension when US President Donald Trump stopped military aid to Ukraine and threatened to sanction Russia if it did not negotiate a ceasefire. This increased instability, supporting gold prices. However, if Russia and Ukraine move towards peace negotiations, gold prices may face downward pressure in the short term, although the possibility is still low. Furthermore, Mr. Trump’s move forced the European Union (EU) to launch a spending package of nearly 1 trillion euros to strengthen the defense of EU member states. This means that the EU’s budget deficit will become larger, leading to higher inflation and lower growth, thereby increasing the role of gold as a safe haven. The US non-farm payrolls (NFP) figure for February came in at 151,000, slightly below the forecast of 159,000. The unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.1% from 4% in January, but the labor market remains untroubled. As a result, the Fed may maintain its current interest rate. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also stressed that the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates as the labor market remains strong and inflation risks remain high. Rising inflation while the Fed maintains stable interest rates has caused real interest rates to fall, supporting gold prices. In addition, economic instability due to US tariff policies and the complicated developments of the Russia-Ukraine war have also increased the demand for safe haven gold. However, since most of the risks have been reflected in prices, gold may not increase sharply next week and there is a risk of correction due to short-term profit-taking pressure. 🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Inflation will be in focus next week as markets digest a number of key data on US prices and consumer spending. The most notable is the February CPI report on Wednesday, followed by the PPI on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday. Other key events include the US JOLTS jobs report on Tuesday, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision on Wednesday morning, and the US weekly jobless claims report on Thursday. 📌Technically, gold prices will fluctuate in a relatively narrow daily range next week with support at $2,890/oz and resistance at $2,930/oz. If gold prices rise above $2,930/oz next week, they could rise to $2,950/oz, followed by strong resistance at $3,000/oz. However, if gold prices are pushed below $2,890/oz next week, they could fall to the $2,835-$2,860/oz range. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868USD Resistance: 2,929 – 2,942 – 2,956USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2976 - 2974⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2980 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2809 - 2811⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2805
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Markets hesitant, GOLD sideways on NFP data dayIn the Asian trading session on Friday (March 7), the spot OANDA:XAUUSD maintained a very slight decline during the day and the current gold price is around 2,911 USD/ounce. On this trading day, investors will pay attention to the US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to impact the main trends in the gold market. The US non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 160,000 in February. Gold is likely to react more strongly to disappointing employment data than to an optimistic non-farm payrolls report because this will push gold prices higher, ending the period of downward adjustment and subsequent recovery and accumulation in the past. The US will release its February non-farm payrolls report at 20:30 Hanoi time on Friday. Surveys show that the number of non-farm payrolls in the US will increase by 160,000 in February, after increasing by 143,000 in January. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.0% in February. Surveys also show that the monthly increase in average wages in the US is expected to slow to 0.3% in February, after increasing by 0.5% in January. Average hourly earnings are likely to increase at an annual rate of 4.1% in February. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring signs of weakness in the labor market as it tries to balance supporting the labor market and controlling inflation. The slowdown in employment data certainly adds complexity to the Fed’s decision-making process. Review of expected data: A large negative surprise in non-farm payrolls, at 100,000 or lower, could put significant pressure on the dollar and open the door for a move higher in gold to help it end the week on the positive side. On the other hand, if the non-farm payrolls figure reaches or exceeds 180k, the dollar could remain firm and limit the upside potential for gold. Technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still in the process of accumulation before receiving a strong impact of structural change from NFP data released today. Up to now, the upward momentum is limited but short-term price declines are supported from the base price area of ​​2,900 USD, this is considered the closest support to pay attention to readers in the previous publication. Technically, the short-term trend is currently unclear as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also moving sideways in the 60-50 range, indicating that market sentiment is still hesitant. However, considering the overall fundamental and technical picture, my personal opinion is to defend the bullish view, with each decline only being considered a short-term correction or a buying opportunity. During the day, the technical outlook for gold continues to target the technical level of 2,942 USD in the short term, more than the all-time high. Notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 - 2,880 USD Resistance: 2,942 - 2,956 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2976 - 2974⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2980 →Take Profit 1 2968 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2962 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2877 - 2879⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2873 →Take Profit 1 2885 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2891
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2025-03-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Another ath but two rejections for 300+ points. I give bulls one more try at this and if we pull back below 23300 again, this likely sells off into the weekend. Past 3 Friday’s we chopped into the weekend after a gap down. Right now is not the time to have bigger positions over the weekend when orange face is at work. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22000 - 24000 bull case: Bulls want 24k now. They are high enough that they could get there but the upper bull trend line is still resistance and every time we touched it in the past days, we sold off for couple hundred points. Bulls know that and since we closed high, I doubt many want to buy above 23200 and hold those over the weekend. Weekly close above 23000 would be very good for the bulls though. Invalidation is below 22900. bear case: Bears need the week to close below 23k, no ifs or buts. A head & shoulders breakdown would be my preferred structure tomorrow, with a measured move down could get us to 22500 but we would need a news bomb I guess. Technically chop between 23000 - 23500 is most likely after a wild week. Weekly close couple ticks below 23k. Anything below 22900 tomorrow is a bear surprise and could go much lower then. Again, my bullish targets were all met with 23k and this channel can’t go on forever but until it’s broken, bulls are in control. Invalidation is above 23600. short term: Neutral around 23200/300. Bearish only below 22900 or around 23500. I’d like to see a lower high tomorrow and then some really big bear bars and a bear surprise. More likely is chop though. Next days we could get some news that the current government might not be able to get enough votes to get the gigantic special budget approved. If so, could trigger a mini-crash. This market is up here on the hopes and dreams of German stimulus. Not saying it won’t happen but front-running goes horribly wrong sometimes. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying from 23130 was insanely strong on US open but so was the rejection. Both trades were good if you are comfortable with reversing positions. You could have bought at previous support and sold at previous resistance. So both were amazing trades and not the hardest to take.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD fluctuates strongly, affected by ADP and Trump's policiesOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading fluctuated strongly due to the impact of US jobs data and news of Trump's tariffs. ADP's national jobs report, also known as the "small nonfarm" report, showed that private-sector job growth in the United States slowed in February, with just 77,000 jobs created, well below the expected 140,000 jobs. "Policy uncertainty and slowing consumer spending may have contributed to a slowdown in layoffs or hiring last month." ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a statement. "Our data, combined with other recent indicators, shows that employers are hesitant to hire as they assess the future economic environment." After the ADP data was released, the US Dollar index fell sharply, and spot gold prices recovered strongly from the lowest level in Wednesday's trading session of 2,894.27 USD/ounce. As of the time this article was completed, spot gold was trading at 2,923USD/oz, an increase equivalent to 0.15% on the day. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump will waive tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month for automakers, responding to calls from industry leaders, the White House said on Wednesday. "We will give a one-month exemption to any imported cars that come in through USMCA," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. "The tariffs will still be in effect on April 2, but at the request of the USMCA companies, the president will give them a one-month exemption so they are not financially disadvantaged." According to Bloomberg, US President Trump is considering reducing tariffs on some agricultural products from Canada and Mexico. On Wednesday local time, US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said "everything is on the table" and hoped the government would decide to provide relief to the agricultural sector. Specific waivers and exceptions for the agriculture industry, which could include potash and fertilizers, have not yet been determined, Rollins said at the White House. “We believe that the President (Trump) cares very much about these communities,” Rollins said at the White House. On the geopolitical front, aides to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed steps toward peace with the U.S. national security adviser, and Ukraine and the United States agreed to meet soon. The cooling geopolitical situation in Ukraine can be seen as a pressure on gold prices in the short term. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Concerns about Trump's tariffs have pushed safe-haven gold prices to an all-time high 11 times this year, peaking at $2,956 an ounce on February 24 and rising 11% this year. On the daily chart, gold is currently trading with a newly formed price channel, and the next notable target level at $2,942 is more of an all-time high. However, in terms of momentum, it is facing some obstacles due to the 61 level of the RSI Relative Strength Index. If RSI breaks above this level, this will be a positive signal for price momentum. Even if gold falls below the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook, the current declines should still only be seen as a short-term correction or a buying opportunity. Some notable locations of the day will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880USD Resistance: 2,942 – 2,956USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2943 - 2941⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2947 →Take Profit 1 2935 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2929 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2877 - 2879⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2873 →Take Profit 1 2885 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2891
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2025-03-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market made a lower high. Most important fact today. Higher low also but for bears it was more important than for the bulls. Range is contracting between 20300 and 20730, so play it. News bombs will likely determine what we will do tomorrow. Embrace the volatility. Trade small and take profits along the way. current market cycle: trading range - only daily closes below 20000 mark the end of this bull trend key levels: 20300 - 20730 (above 20730 we will likely go for 21k / below 20300 is 20000) bull case: Bulls are in reach to break the bear channel and melt higher again. They need to break above tomorrow or bears might do the unthinkable and go below 20000 into the weekend. We have corrected 10% from the ath and a bounce would be a bit more fitting than continuation. My W2 target is around 21200. Very important for bulls is to print higher lows tomorrow, means staying above 20215. Invalidation is below 20215. bear case: Bears continue to have deep intraday bear legs so bulls are not too happy in buying high, which is probably why we are contracting again. Bears want to continue this sharp sell off into the weekend, likely below the big round number 20000. They are still in control until the bear channel is broken. Invalidation is above 21740. short term: Neutral but I kinda slightly favor the bulls since we are at the 2024-11, 2025-02 and 2025-01 support. If the bear channel continues, so be it. Happily shorting this for 20k then but I’d be more surprised if we do not make new highs above 20740 tomorrow and test 21k again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000. trade of the day: Range was clear and given, have to play it. Both sides made good money today.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
Recap: Short below LIS/Yearly Open Crude OilNYMEX:CL1! Another day and EdgeClear brings you another recap where one of the highlighted scenarios in our weekly plan for WTI crude oil, published on February 24, 2025 , played out as expected. Our Scenario 3 looked at price discovery extending the 2025 range into Q4 2024 lower distribution. Our analysis indicated an initial move lower bouncing from CVPOC 2022 support. The key was price moving below key LIS/yearly open. We did not see a bearish head and shoulders pattern develop, however, the rest of the plan played out as expected. Note the price action till Friday, 28th Feb 2025. We have been consistently providing traders with a roadmap for WTI crude oil with our thoughts and opinions on the market. WTI crude oil is a fundamental product that is affected by several factors, such as: macro, geopolitical, economic, supply, demand, and oil production dynamics. Our analysis considers these developments along with auction market theory and key indicators that may be important to watch at times. As an example, for our January 13, 2025, blog , we noted increased volume with increased open interest that drove bullish sentiment in crude oil prices. We also highlighted potential short opportunities that played out per our plan. For last week’s blog, we noted the overall trend in volume and open interest falling, indicating a potential move lower. This combined with multiple tests of our key LIS/ yearly open, strengthened our thesis for further price discovery lower. In our blog, we have highlighted two key ranges: $70 - $75 - Q1 2025 Value Area $65 - $70 - Q4 2024 Lower Distribution Focus is shifting towards oil market fundamentals i.e., supply, demand, and production outlook. While headline news may drive short-term and intraday volatility, investors and market participant’s focus will shift towards oil market fundamentals. On March 3rd, 2025, OPEC+ reaffirmed its decision from December 5, 2024, to proceed with gradual and flexible return of 2.2 mbpd voluntary cuts, starting April 1, 2025. It provided a detailed table along with a cautious approach should this decision require any amendments. In our analysis, while trade war and tariff tantrum create uncertainty around demand outlook, any news providing clarity on tariffs will be considered net positive.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
GOLD recovers, fueled by trade risks as key support Influenced by US President Trump's imposition of new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and the doubling of tariffs on Chinese goods, the situation has raised fears of a global trade war. OANDA:XAUUSD found support after fresh tariff concerns and rebounded to target $2,900 and above it the momentum is waning. Trump's tariff policy continues to boost inflation expectations while weakening economic growth expectations, and real yields continue to decline. The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will have an important impact on the market. If data shows rising inflation, gold prices could fall as the market may reduce expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Recently, the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year, up from 44 basis points last week. Trump's tariff action, which could affect nearly $2.2 trillion in annual US two-way trade with China, takes effect at 12:00 Hanoi time on Tuesday. China responded immediately by imposing additional tariffs of 10%-15% on certain US imports effective March 10 and imposing a series of new export restrictions on certain designated US entities, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa will immediately apply a 25% tariff on $20.7 billion worth of US goods. JPMorgan said it has a structurally long-term bullish view on gold and expects gold prices to reach $3,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025. Trump's tariffs are considered inflationary and have prompted many investors to move money into the safe-haven gold, which has risen more than 10% this year. However, higher inflation in the United States could force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for longer, which could reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Markets await the ADP jobs report on Wednesday and the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday for more information on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has achieved the $2,900 target gain readers noticed in previous editions since it reached support at $2,835. Temporarily, the recovery momentum is weakening but maintaining price activity above the original price level of $2,900 is considered a positive signal for continued upside, and the next target is $2,942 in the short term, more than the all-time high of $2,956. The interim relative strength index is also showing signs of reacting to the 61 resistance level, a continued break towards the overbought area would be a positive signal for bullish expectations in terms of momentum. During the day, gold's price recovery prospects and notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868USD Resistance: 2,942 – 2,956USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2941 - 2939⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2933 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2927 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2884 - 2886⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2880 →Take Profit 1 2892 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2898
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2025-03-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Very strong selling followed by very strong buying but bears defended where they had to. Another one for the 50% retracement if you go from ath down to 22348, the 50% is around 22849 and market stopped the bounce pretty much there. Now we have a big gap up from 22357 up to 22707 but I doubt this will stay open. My bias is bearish with stop 23091 but for now we can’t expect market to drop below 22300 since the buying down there was so strong. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22000 - 23351 bull case: Bulls reversed 78.6% of the selling almost to the tick. I let you figure out which glorified pattern that is. I do not care about them nearly as much as others. I only care about the 50% and then maybe 30% or 60% to determine how strong the pullback is. Bulls showed strength by rallying for 500+ points and that naturally makes me think the downside is limited for now. Problem for them is, the rejection from 22351 on Monday was so strong that they likely won’t buy high again and wait for pullbacks. Since bears also showed strength, we will likely continue sideways. Bulls need something above 23091 to retest 23355 or go higher. Invalidation is below 22300. bear case: Bears had an amazing small-pullback-bear-trend but bulls bought heavily the lows on the news that the EU will do a new fund and Germany will also likely do new debt to finance defense and infrastructure stuff. Does it matter? Not really. Clear descending triangle for us to trade until we make higher highs or lower lows. We are above the 50% of it and I favor the bears to retest at least 22400 tomorrow. So shorts close to 22800 are reasonable. Bears also have going for them, that lately not-bad news got bought but then reversed to the downside, which I believe suits the sell-the-rip market we could be in. US indexes will likely have more downside over the next weeks, since this whole move down could be seen as a bigger W1 on the weekly chart for sp500 and nasdaq. Dax will follow them, just takes a bit more time I guess. Plan for this week is still to hit 22000 and then some strong moves down to 21000 over the next 1-2 weeks. Invalidation is above 23091. short term: Neutral around 22700. Bearish above 22800 and bullish below 22450. Strong moves to both sides will likely result in sideways movement and not a strong breakout to either side. My thesis is still that Monday was a higher high major trend reversal and we could have seen the highs. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Small pullback bear trend from EU open 22955 down to 22357. It was so strong, you had to be short. 5m 20ema held like a champ. 22350 was previous support and once market stopped making new lows, bears needed to reduce risk and take profits. Could you have anticipated that the bounce would be good for 500+ points? Hell no. If you took a long, good for you. To make a living from trading you don’t have to be perfect or amazing, you just have to be good and that meant, taking reasonable profits on shorts and not watching them disappear on the bounce.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds