2024-11-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures - Same as for dax. Retest of yesterday’s open price and bears could only correct sideways and biggest dip was 5 points. Big bull trend line was support and we are on our way up. I expect 6040 and probably higher. If not tomorrow then next month. We have a perfect channel upwards which leads 6100+. I don’t think bears can even get below 6015 again. If they do, 6000 has to hold or we could have seen the highs.
comment: Not much difference to my dax outlook. Relentless buying today, ath in sight and a decent channel upwards. Bears need something below 6000 to make bulls cover. Big bullish bias for me. Possible that we stay around 6000-6050 for November, to then do the Santa rally somewhere in December. Closing 2024 above 6000 would be amazing for bulls.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 6000 - 6050 (above 6050 comes 6100 in play)
bull case : Higher lows and higher highs. Clear invalidation price given and big resistance above. I doubt bears can get this below 6010/6015 tomorrow. Only longs for me. If we stall around 6040, you should have a tight stop and from a r:r perspective, new longs above 6040 are bad.
Invalidation is below 6010.
bear case: Bears need something below 6000. That’s it. How likely is that? Look at the daily chart. Is there any bearishness in there?
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term : Bullish.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Could have bought pretty much anywhere.
Futures
2024-11-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Max bullishness. Bulls bought it all today. We barely made higher highs and are still under 19500 but every small dip was relentlessly bought. Bulls also defended the Globex gap and that fact + that we closed right at the highs is the strongest buy signal going into tomorrow there is. I expect a quick move abov 19500, followed by some sideways movement before we go for 19600 and I don’t think it can prevent a new ath either tomorrow or next week. I only get bearish below 19350.
comment : Bulls set up a big breakout for the coming days. Every dip was bought and we closed at the highs. Easy validation levels now. 19519 was high of the week and we will likely hit it tomorrow for some sideways movement afterwards. Very bullish for 19600 after that. If we drop below 19380 again, means the bull trend line broke and we have many support prices between that and 19300. Do or die for the bulls here. Fail and down to 19300 or lower. Break above and likely 19600 and new ath.
current market cycle : trading range
key levels: 19300 - 19600
bull case: Bulls want the breakout above 19520 and they are perfectly set up to get it. Measured move from today brings us almost exactly to the ath 19802. There. Are. No. Coincidences.
Invalidation is below 19350.
bear case: Bears need to stay below 19500 to have a reasonable chance of going more sideways and then down below 19350. Below that, they will likely gain more momentum and go down to 19300 or 19200. Until then, they have little arguments on their side after today. Market now closed 4 consecutive bars above the daily 20ema and bears could not even close the Globex gap today. That is so bullish because it’s so rare, you can not think about shorting this until bears have shown strength again.
Invalidation is above 19520.
short term: Bullish. Expect a meltup.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Longs only. Every dip buy made you money.
GOLD fell rapidly in the short term, pressured by US dataIn the early trading session in Asian markets on Thursday (November 28), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly dropped sharply in the short term, currently trading around 2,629 USD/ounce. Gold prices gave up much of their earlier recovery gains after data showed inflation progress was stalling, as the data could make the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting interest rates further.
According to Wednesday's economic data, US durable goods orders rose 0.2% month-on-month in October. While it did not meet expectations of 0.5%, it was an improvement. improved compared to a decrease of 0.4% in September.
The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the US in the week of November 23 remained stable at 213,000, lower than the expected level of 217,000.
The real (quarterly annually adjusted) rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States in the third quarter was unchanged from its baseline value, at 2.8%, and growth slowed from 3% in the second quarter.
But the GDP report still shows that the US economy still has good resilience. GDP growth has exceeded 2% in eight of the past nine quarters.
A report released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the Fed's favorite inflation index rebounded in October compared to September. The data supports Fed officials taking a more cautious stance in recent times. next interest rate cut.
The Fed's favorite measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index that excludes volatile food and energy, rose 2.8% year-on-year in October, a highest since April this year compared to September, up 2.7%.
Additionally, the core PCE price index increased 0.3% month-over-month in October, in line with expectations.
The PCE price index increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.3% year-on-year in October, both in line with the forecasts of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones. The PCE index's annual increase in October was higher than September's 2.1% gain.
Wednesday's data showed that U.S. personal income rose 0.6% month-on-month in October, significantly better than the expected increase of 0.3%.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's November monetary policy meeting released Tuesday showed that although Fed officials said they expected to continue cutting interest rates in the future, they said the pace Interest rate cuts will take place “gradually”.
The gold market fluctuated strongly this week. As Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon declared a ceasefire, reducing demand for safe havens, gold suffered its biggest one-day drop in more than five months on Monday and prices fell to a low. most since November 18 on Tuesday.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to maintain its main bearish trend after approaching and coming under pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
The drop below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement is a good signal for bearish expectations as the target behind that is at the levels of 2,606 – 2,600USD. Note to readers in the previous issue.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is flat below 50, if it is pointing down this can be considered a good signal for a downtrend.
As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, it will remain bearish in the near term and price rallies should only be considered short-term recoveries without changing the current primary trend.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable points listed as follows.
Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,634 – 2,644USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
→Take Profit 1 2679
↨
→Take Profit 2 2674
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2575
→Take Profit 1 2586
↨
→Take Profit 2 2591
GOLD should continue bullish as the Dollar takes a breakcaught a nice move yesterday and looking for the move to continue today. We are sitting in a high volume level on the VP and bears are starting to fall back from being active. waiting for the next 2hours of the Asian kill zone to show me what price wants to do.
#IOTX 1D: 100% Circulating Supply – Stable Growth. 11/28/24Launched in 2017 as an open-source project, IoTeX has evolved into a decentralized platform empowering the open economy for machines. It is an ecosystem where people and machines interact with trust, autonomy, and carefully designed economic incentives.
Nearly 100% of all tokens are already in circulation, a crucial factor as it eliminates future unlocks that could lead to large-scale sell-offs. This reduces market volatility caused by major sales.
The current price level appears to be a "bottom," making further declines unlikely.
With a market cap exceeding $400 million, IoTeX has growth potential. If its market cap increases significantly, the token price could follow, indicating the project has yet to reach its full potential.
IOTXUSDT shows promising potential for further growth, supported by the limited availability of tokens for large investors.
#DOGS 1D. Symmetrical Triangle – Key Levels Inside! 11/28/24Over the past week, I noticed that trading volumes for this token on Binance have risen to levels comparable to many popular tokens, both on futures and spot markets.
Currently, the price has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on increasing volume, bouncing off the support level. This could indicate potential for further growth.
I plan to take profit on both spot and futures positions in the $0.010 - $0.012 range, as I don’t see value in holding beyond that. Setup is shown on the chart.
DYOR.
2024-11-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra - 19300 was crushed early and we tested 19200 and given yesterday. Market tried to reverse it but failed below the breakout point. That’s bearish on one hand but we closed above the daily and 1h 20ema. Bulls need 19500 and bears 19100. We are trading right in the middle of it and that zone is death for your account. Wait for a strong breakout. It will likely happen tomorrow.
comment: Market hit the midpoint of this trading range and went back above 19300. We are in no mans land between 19200 and 19400. Bearish below, bullish above. Break above 19350 tomorrow and we will see 19400 and likely 19460 afterwards. Fail at 19200 and we go down to 19000. Absolute in balance is what this is, so no bias on my end.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19200 - 19400
bull case: Bulls need a 1h close above 19350 for higher prices. That’s all there is to it right now.
Invalidation is below 19250.
bear case: Bears want to stay inside the bear channel and test 19200 again. We are seeing many converging lines for tomorrow, so it’s reasonable to hope for a bigger trend day tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 19350.
short term: Neutral. Clear levels given, hoping for a big day tomorrow.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Short from the open, which was a bit unexpected imo. Market then formed clear and expected support at 19200, which was a good long for 200+ points.
2024-11-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Market tested the 50% retracement to the tick and reversed up. It also closed above the daily 20ema, so bulls remain in control but barely. Clear triangle on the daily chart and it has room for 1-2 more days but it could also break out big time tomorrow.
current market cycle: Bull trend but also nested triangle on the daily chart
key levels : 20500 - 21500
bull case: First target is a break above 2100 and we would likely see giving up by the bears then and no more resistance until 21340. If bulls fail here and the bull trend line from August breaks, market is free to crash down to 18000.
Invalidation is below 20500.
bear case: Bears need strong follow through selling below 20700 or we won’t see lower prices. 20850 is around the mid point of the triangle and my line in the sand for bears. If they manage to keep it below, we could test down to 20700 and maybe break below.
Invalidation is above 21000.
short term: Neutral. Either wait for a bigger breakout or play the range.
medium-long term: If we stay above 20500, will likely rally more into year end before a bigger correction.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling the US open. Market traded below the 2m 20ema for 240 points down.
#APT 1D: Sharp Moves Ahead – Plan Your Trade! 11/28/24The price is currently consolidating within a range. Historically, such accumulation phases often precede sharp upward moves, particularly in favorable market conditions. Given Aptos' behavior, it’s also capable of diverging positively from the broader market trends.
I plan to enter the position using two limit orders at $11.74 and $10.94. My exit strategy involves three limit orders at $15.87, $17.83, and $20.43. Stop-loss levels are indicated on the chart (note: no stop-loss for spot positions).
DYOR.
#ETC 1W: Stable Asset with Growth Ahead. 11/28/24This is a long-term, consistently stable asset. Its price is influenced by Ethereum’s (ETH) dynamics, often following ETH’s price movements.
For over 1,000 days, the asset has traded within a sideways range, suggesting liquidity accumulation and a consolidation phase, where the price remains relatively unchanged. Such phases often precede significant growth.
Currently, resistance is at the upper boundary of the range, which may not be broken on the first attempt, potentially causing a pullback to current levels. In any case, it’s reasonable to begin building a spot position from current levels and consider swing trades with further accumulation on corrections. Targets are shown on the chart.
Personally, I anticipate further growth after breaking through resistance and plan to open a long position on the pullback.
DYOR.
#ETH 4H: Support at $3K – Rally to $6K? 11/27/25I expect a corrective pullback to the support level. On spot and futures, I plan to accumulate around $3,000. Based on my analysis, this price zone offers a solid entry opportunity.
Since Bitcoin (BTC) influences the entire cryptocurrency market, Ethereum’s forecast depends on Bitcoin's performance. If Bitcoin rises, other cryptocurrencies are likely to follow, and vice versa.
In my view, Ethereum will show strong performance and begin to rise in December.
A reminder: important news is expected on Wednesday, which could trigger significant price volatility in the crypto market.
Setup is on the chart! For beginners: use a stop-loss!
I personally plan to open a swing position as follows:
Entry (EP): $3,000 - $2,800
Take Profit (TP): $4,000 - $6,000
Stop-Loss (SL): $2,500
DYOR.
#DAR 1D: Symmetrical Triangle – Pump Incoming?DAR is an Ethereum token powering the game Mines of Dalarnia. This play-to-earn game features mining, multiplayer battles, and resource collection. DAR tokens can be used to upgrade items, trade on the in-game NFT marketplace, and vote on platform development plans.
Currently, the asset is in a prolonged accumulation phase, with the price forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on volumes, which could indicate further growth. Assets like this, after such extended accumulations, often pump rapidly and unexpectedly. From current levels, there’s a potential for 50% to 500% gains without leverage—depending on luck.
DYOR.
#ANKR 1D: Potential 2x-5x Move. 11/27/24Ankr leverages shared resources to provide simple and affordable blockchain node hosting solutions. Founded in November 2017, it has developed a marketplace for container-based cloud services by utilizing shared resources.
The project currently has a market capitalization of about $400 million. All tokens are already in circulation with no further issuance planned, signaling potential for future growth.
I will be accumulating from current levels and adding 2-3 pending orders down to $0.03350 (if it even gets there, which I personally doubt). Targets are indicated on the chart. Potential movement ranges from 2x to 5x from current levels.
#WIF 1D. Ready to Jump? 11/25/24Among meme coins, #WIF is currently the most appealing. It's worth considering building a spot position and opening a swing trade in the $3.2 - $2.8 range (support level).
The support level is a price range where an asset has historically not fallen below and is expected to bounce back upward.
Personally, I look for opportunities to open positions when the market is volatile or after significant moves that could impact an asset's price in the future. But if you're trading (entering positions or buying on spot) only when everything is pumping, then panic-selling on every dip and/or being afraid to buy or enter trades—well, I pity you. You'll never make money this way. Trading is not for you! Quit this right now!
The nearest target for #WIF is $4.304, and we will absolutely reach it!
Long Lean Hog Futures as Slaughter Rates DeclineThe lean hog market consistently demonstrates a seasonal price increase from November to April, primarily driven by reduced slaughter rates following the peak summer grilling season. This seasonal supply shortage occurs because fewer hogs are brought to market during the winter months. Since 2016, the only exception to this trend was during the disruptions caused by COVID-19.
GOLD recovered from $2,606, before a series of key weekly dataIn the Asian market on Wednesday (November 27), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is trading around 2,638 USD/ounce. During this trading day, investors will receive many important data such as the US PCE inflation index, which is expected to create great fluctuations in the gold market in particular and the financial market in general.
The US will release some headline data ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday today (Wednesday).
On Wednesday, the US will release a series of important economic data, with US PCE inflation data expected to receive the most attention.
Today, US durable goods orders for October, last week's initial jobless claims and third-quarter real GDP data will be released.
Surveys showed the U.S. monthly initial durable goods ordering rate in October was expected to rise 0.5%, compared with a 0.7% decline the previous month.
The number of Americans filing seasonally adjusted unemployment claims for the week of November 23 is expected to be 217,000, compared with 213,000 the previous week.
Additionally, U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter is expected to grow at an annualized quarterly rate of 2.8%.
On the same day, the United States will release the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report for October. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
Surveys show that the US PCE price index in October is expected to increase 0.2% monthly and 2.3% annually. Additionally, the US core PCE price index in October is expected to increase 0.3% monthly and 2.8% annually.
The core PCE price index could cause a short-term market reaction, with investors expecting core PCE to rise 0.3% month-over-month in October, in line with September's gain. Data Stronger-than-expected data could boost the US Dollar in its initial reaction and drag gold prices lower. On the other hand, a level of 0.2% or lower could have the opposite impact on gold price action.
Expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bps in December are currently at 63.1%, according to CME group's FedWatch data.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold recovered from the initial support level noted by readers in yesterday's edition at 2,606 USD and is now close to reaching the initial target resistance at 2,644 USD.
The recent decline has created a medium-term trend price channel for gold. This price channel is inclined towards the possibility of a decrease in price. Along with that, gold will also be under the current main pressure with the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
In the interim, gold still has room to recover as long as it remains above its original price point of $2,600, on the other hand if gold breaks $2,644 it could continue to recover a bit further with a target then around $2,663 The price point of the Fibonacci 0.50% is confluent with the EMA21.
However, in case gold falls below the original price point of 2,600 USD, it will be eligible for a new short-term down cycle to open, with a target of 2,591 USD in the short term, more than 2,538 USD.
During the day, gold's technical outlook leans towards price reduction along with the above recovery levels, notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,644 – 2,663USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2665
→Take Profit 1 2654
↨
→Take Profit 2 2649
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2575
→Take Profit 1 2586
↨
→Take Profit 2 2591
VELAS IS IN THE PROGRESS - TO THE TOP, WHERE IT BELONGSDescending Triangle Pattern:
A bearish continuation pattern is forming, typically indicating potential further downside if it breaks below the horizontal support. However, a breakout above the descending resistance could invalidate this pattern and indicate bullish momentum.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels:
$0.0075: A critical support zone. A break below this level could lead to significant downward momentum.
$0.0052: The next potential target for bearish continuation.
Resistance Levels:
$0.0165: Key resistance from the descending triangle trendline.
$0.0202 and $0.0251: Potential targets for a bullish breakout.
$0.0338: A major long-term resistance level.
Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI is hovering near 44, showing a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment. A move below 30 would indicate oversold conditions, while crossing above 50 could signal bullish momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator:
Currently near oversold territory (15.97), suggesting the potential for a bullish reversal in the short term.
VMACD (Visual MACD):
Divergences observed on the chart indicate a potential bullish reversal. Pay attention to the crossover points.
Market Sentiment:
The ongoing consolidation within the triangle suggests indecision in the market. A clear breakout or breakdown will dictate the next directional move.
Trading Plan
Entry Strategy:
IMMEDIATELY
Exit Strategy:
When you feel good about it :)
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is the main pressureOn the Asian market on Tuesday (November 26), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading is still under pressure after yesterday's terrible plunge. Gold price is currently around 2,629 USD/ounce.
Hopes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah are turning the gold price outlook bearish, with gold prices set to test $2,600 an ounce.
On Monday, gold prices fell more than 3% on reports that Israel and Hezbollah were close to reaching a ceasefire agreement and that Trump nominated Bessant as US Treasury Secretary, reducing its appeal as a haven. Safe for gold.
Two senior Israeli officials and two US officials told Axios that Israel and Lebanon are close to reaching a ceasefire agreement to end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, US-based Axios reported on Monday.
According to the Israeli ambassador to the US, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is very close. Authorities are expected to announce a 60-day ceasefire today (Tuesday).
Previously, gold prices increased more than 6% last week, due to escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions.
Britain's Reuters also reported today that US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to soon announce a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.
According to Reuters, the French presidential palace announced that discussions on a ceasefire had made significant progress.
In Jerusalem, a senior Israeli official said the Israeli cabinet would meet today (Tuesday) local time to approve a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
After yesterday's terrible price drop, gold is trying to recover from its original price point of 2,600 USD.
However, the recovery also encountered a lower limit from the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, followed by horizontal resistance at 2,644USD.
Technically, gold has conditions for a downtrend, with the price channel as the main trend, pressure from EMA21 along with the RSI pointing down, bringing activity below the 50 level.
In the short term, if gold fails to hold above $2,600, a new bearish cycle could be opened with a target level of around $2,538 once $2,600 is broken below. However, currently gold still has the ability to recover with a resistance target of around 2,634 USD in the short term, more than 2,644 USD.
During the day, the technical outlook leans to the downside with the following recovery levels.
Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,634 – 2,644USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2665
→Take Profit 1 2654
↨
→Take Profit 2 2649
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2575
→Take Profit 1 2586
↨
→Take Profit 2 2591
Alphabet (GOOGL): Perfect wave reaction. This is our planWhat can we say except—just take a look at this. Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ) has followed our analysis perfectly over the last two months, reacting strongly to the targeted area for wave B and selling off immediately after reaching the exact 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentally, pressure is mounting on Alphabet. Last Wednesday, U.S. prosecutors presented a case to the Department of Justice arguing that Google must sell its Chrome browser, share data and search results with rivals, and potentially sell Android to dismantle its monopoly on online search. This landmark case could reshape how users find information, creating uncertainty around Alphabet’s future operational structure.
From a technical perspective, we still anticipate more downside for $GOOGL. The level of $137.8 now appears even more significant. It aligns with the Fibonacci retracement of wave (2), the Point of Control (POC), and the wave C target—an extremely strong confluence zone. This makes $137.8 a likely magnet and a strong candidate for support, offering a potentially lucrative long setup if the price reaches this level.
We are monitoring closely to see how NASDAQ:GOOGL performs in the coming weeks and how these levels react to ongoing market conditions and DOJ pressures.