Something Interesting with Bitcoin Halvings (Future Prediction)Hey all,
Thought we'd share with you our predictions for the price of Bitcoin over the next year or 3.. :)
We've loaded a logarithmic chart up with over a decade of BTCUSD data, plotted some lines and drawn some rather interesting conclusions. As you can see the price fits into an ever-decelerating *almost* parallel curved trend channel, that leads us a potential first conclusion -
Will the price of Bitcoin hit it's absolute top at some time in 2025 at around the $130,000 mark?
I know, the trend lines aren't exactly perfect, and the price fitting isn't spot-on either, but it sure is an interesting concept, and, if so, would the price thereafter start to actually decline with a downward curved channel, and how far, for how long? Many questions! What do you think?
But that's not what I came to tell you about today - I've gone ahead and plotted the dates of the last few Bitcoin halving events, and the upcoming date of the next halving in April 2024. BTC has been hitting new All-Time-Highs around a year or two after the previous halving, followed by an extended period of consolidation until the next halving, when the price has, historically, taken off "to the moon" once again.
This is not necessarily news to anyone, it's common knowledge if you've been in the crypto arena for a short while. But here's where things could be considered interesting -
The All Time High price of Bitcoin has historically dropped around 50% by the next halving
Looking at the current chart of BTCUSD you can see that it's pretty clear we've hit that ATH during this 4-year cycle already, it does look a little different in that it double-topped this time around, and hasn't behaved like that before, but markets do interesting and unpredictable things all the time, right!?
Given what we've discussed already and assuming that history does indeed repeat itself, it seems pretty safe to suggest that Bitcoin will indeed drop further from where it's currently sat, it has to tickle that lower trend line before it can move on up in price toward the next halving event.
It looks like BTC could touch $12,000 before the ascent to $36,000 by April 2024
Yep, I said it. Another 25% wiped off the price of BTC before it starts to rise again. This is obviously speculation, but speculation based on repetitive historical data nonetheless! Like I said previously, the trend lines aren't perfect, and the price fit isn't perfect either, in early 2019 the price dropped somewhat but did not touch that lower trend line, and it may well be the case again this time around.
But one thing seems pretty clear, the price of Bitcoin has already hit it's ATH during this 4-year cycle, and even if it can go above the predicted halving price of $36,000 before April 2024, it probably won't be by much, and it will return to this price by April 2024 to greet it's halving at a price of half it's most recent ATH.
After that, to the moon? Well, almost certainly upward given history, almost certainly above $100,000 too - it might take a year to reach these prices after the 4th halving. But just how much further can the price of BTC really go?
Let us know what you think below
