Position QHF 29.10.2018The price continues to slowly crawl down, narrowing the range of trades.
The model is interpreted as a descending wedge with a possible way up.
Local purchases with short goals are possible.
After working out the wedge model, we expect another dump within the range of 6300-6400.
Futuresbtc
Position QHF 26.10.2018The situation around the bitcoin -0.03% does not improve, but only becomes more complicated.
The price is still in the zone of "trend uncertainty".
If we compare the price movement structure of 2 exchanges, the Bitstapms' has formed a small level triangular pattern, from which the local movement can play in any direction. The question is in the candlestick fix beyond the model border. However, this won't give the required impulse for the breakout from the main range.
We continue to watch the development.
Today / tomorrow should be published the SEC on Crypto-ETF.
We hope that the news will contribute to an increase in the volatility .
Position QHF 24.102.2018The price of bitcoin, as before, is in no hurry, changing very slowly within the two-month range.
We believe that the level of 6400 will be tested a little later, when the company announces the decision on the need for ETF on crypto assets for financial markets, which will be announced soon.
This may be followed by impulsive growth.
Position QHF 22.10.2019Prices are moving turtle speed.
Most likely the reason is that there is a mid-term accumulation in bigger models of the market, prior to the faster distribution of the volume.
The situation with the bitcoin does not change.
The price has fallen into the conditional buying zone, where, perhaps, there will be some time.
As before, the priorities of purchase with a smooth averaging to the lower boundary of the model.
We do not recommend to sell at the bottom of the established range.
Position QHF 19.10.2018In past ideas, we have identified a large triangle, the boundaries of which were broken by a false shadow of market makers closing shorts (assuming the volume was created by market maker).
The range of buyers interest was specified (the price slowly slides down to that).
The position remains. In preference the game in long from the green range.
The primary targets at the exit of the model may be the levels near 7800.
Position QHF 17.10.2018After a short squeeze on the "tether is scam" news, the market began to stabilize.
The current situation with BTC indicates the formation of a possible (local) triangle model, out of which both up and down is possible to exit.
The boundaries of the midterm model of a larger triangle still remain relevant, as well as the logical development of the situation with the future price increases and the breakthrough up or down.
We are skeptical about a possible catastrophic sale down to the new minimum of 5750, because for the long period each negative event draws the rising minimums ..
We agree, not everyone is able to make money now. However, if you remove all info-noise and concentrate on simple and clear models, with constant risk / reward values, you can find the way.
Position QHF 15.10.2018The price broke out of a large triangle model, which, apparently, turned out to be a bear trap.
At this stage, you can safely look for longs. The model objectives are outside of 8500. Look for enter points on the local correction.
The target level of purchases located in the range of 7000-6800.
Position QHF 12.10.2018The price went down out of the local triangle, giving no signal to action.
At this stage, it is clear that the BTC didn't leave the area of the maximum volume during the correction from 20,000.
Since the decision about the ETF is scheduled for October 26, the whole plunge could be false at this stage, and the price will return back to the range of 6500-6700 or hight.
By the nature of the upward movement of correction it will be clear what to expect from the market in the future.
Position QHF 10.10.2018Bitcoin quotes still remain in narrow trading ranges.
The marked market models (local and medium-term triangles) have not been pierced to this day.
Our position does not change relative to the position of the price of digital gold.
As before, we consider it a topical idea to break through graphic models with objectives to increase the value of the asset to 7000-7200 in the near future, as well as 9000+ a little later.
At the moment, everything is also waiting for confirmation of our plan to make a successful trade.
Alts, of course, behave in the same perspective as the main cryptocurrency.
Position QHF 08.10.2018The price of Bitcoin continues to narrow the range of volatility, forming a triangle in a triangle. We have identified on the chart zones of double Fibonacci levels, which are most of all under the price, rather than higher.
The edges of possible graphical formations are built.
Paying attention to these details - they made an action plan, which suggests another sharp drop in prices a little later from the level of 7000-7200, in order to scare those who buy Bitcoin intraday.
In the coming hours, a test level of 6500 is possible, followed by an increase in the price to 7000, from where we expect another correction within the larger triangle model.
Position 05.01.2018 (repeat due to lack of volatility)In the last idea, we defined for ourselves the framework of a market model, such as a "triangle".
The price of bitcoin 0.19% is moving slowly, which gives once again and a reason to think about the current picture.
No matter how much the majority of market participants wish, we are inclined to the side that the price does not fall below 5900.
At the moment there are some local boundaries of the triangle, which act as support and resistance , as well as a key range of active trading 6600-6200.
If we consider the Fibonacci levels of past ranges, we can see that the price is near a cluster of double levels of 76.4%, 23.6% is a good support for the price.
We believe that after the correction, the bitcoin price will start the next recovery.
Position QHF (03.10.2018)In the last idea, we defined for ourselves the framework of a market model, such as a "triangle".
The price of bitcoin is moving slowly, which gives once again and a reason to think about the current picture.
No matter how much the majority of market participants wish, we are inclined to the side that the price does not fall below 5900.
At the moment there are some local boundaries of the triangle, which act as support and resistance, as well as a key range of active trading 6600-6200.
If we consider the Fibonacci levels of past ranges, we can see that the price is near a cluster of double levels of 76.4%, 23.6% is a good support for the price.
We believe that after the correction, the bitcoin price will start the next recovery.
Position QHF (01.10.2018)The range of fluctuations in the price of bitcoin narrows into a triangular formation.
If you look at the daily charts, you can notice a similar situation regarding the intraday.
"The spring contracts." Soon a very serious period of volatility in the markets of crypto-currencies may come.
We are considering buying on the range 6500-6300.
Position QHF 28.09.2018BTC began its recovery by testing resistance at 6700.
If the price stays above the level of 6600, further digital gold growth is probable.
6900, 7200 - possibly the new levels of the correction of the market.
Looks like that for the breakdown of high volume resistance level at the level of 6400, a longer correction of the entire range of 7400-6100 is required.
Position QHF 26.09.2018Once again BTC tests the active volume level of 6350.
The range between 6550-6650 with low accumulation (Fibonacci 0.61) is currently appearing. There the market maker position correction is possible.
Fund's position is short loading in range between 6550-6650 with targets below 6000.
Position QHF 24.09.2018BTC was pushed higher, creating another volume resistance / support level at 6700.
The current nature of the price change indicates the formation of an upward correction model for the movement in the past from 7400 to 6100.
We assume that the local growth is not over yet and the price will test the levels of 6900-7100, where the beginning of the short-term bearish cycle is possible.
Position QHF 21.09.2018Tthere were some events recently that led BTC 3.65% in an unstable situation.
The reason was quickly expounded, although it is clear from the nature of the price behavior that this was a planned manipulation against market participants.
At the moment the market is stabile. The price is above the wide resistance. Above there is an "open window" (up to 6800 and higher), the test of which we expect.
Based on the market reaction on the volume-free levels (6800-7200) it will be clear whether it is worth considering further long positions.
Perhaps the current growth is part of a large correction, and then the bear market will regain its strength.
Position QHF 19.09.2018Within the previous idea one of the assumptions was testing of the resistance levels 6300-6200.
BTC Price successfully bounced and at the moment consolidates near the important level of 6350.
If the price will get out of the consolidation channel to the levels of 6400-6500, then on the return to the levels of 6400-6300 our fund, as planned, is going to load a long position with 6800 as target.
Also, if the BTC fall below the tested level of 6200, the wide channel will be the strong resistance.
Returning to the levels of 6300-6400, the sale with the objectives of 5800 and bellow will be considered.
Everyone Longs to BeLongA close look at the CME futures BTC1! chart tells us that we're still in up trend, clear as day:
1. there's only one clear bottom
2. bull volume is rising
3. we're in a clear upwards channel
4. we're above EMAs, golden cross, fanning up
5. divergence on RSI and EWO caused wave 4 correction
Bull targets:
- 8800 (2.618 of wave 1, 100% of wave i + iii, 100% of wave i)
- 8950-9050 (78.6 of prev swing, -0.236 algo target)
Bear targets for wave 4 (another leg down is possible):
- 7750 - EMA50, 1.618 of wave 1
- 7550 - 38.2% correction of wave 3
- 7400 - EMA100
As Bitcoin depends heavily on the futures, it makes more sense now to analyze the futures chart other than all of the BTCUSD charts.
Good Luck!
This is not a financial advice. The market is prone to manipulation and unpredictable. I'm not responsible for possible losses.
The Effect of Futures Expiration and ETF Decisions on BTCAll traders and investors should be aware of two sets of key dates in BTC:
1) The date that Bitcoin Futures contracts expire (shown on the chart in black in the past, and orange in the future)
Futures contracts let traders bet on whether the price will rise or fall, without actually having to hold bitcoins. Whilst in principal the start of these should push the value of BTC up, the dates that these contracts expire has never coincided with a bullish few days in Bitcoin (although the effect, if indeed there is correlation, thankfully seems to be short term). In fact the very first futures expiration was December 17th 2017... coinciding with Bitcoin dropping like a rock from it's all time high of the previous day! This may have been coincidental, or the futures expiration just might have been the trigger for the beginning of the correction, which is always inevitable and necessary after a huge pump.
Regardless, the next Bitcoin Futures contract (by CME) expires tomorrow 27th July and hence is unlikely to coincide with a bullish period. The epic bull run to a new all time high is more likely to come with my next point...
2) The date that a decision is given on a Bitcoin ETF (shown on the chart in green)
If you haven't heard of the various Bitcoin ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) applications which have been filed you really should do some research - they will open the floodgates to literally billions of dollars from retail traders and individual accredited investors in the US public market and is widely anticipated to mark the start of the next moon shot in BTC. The US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) are due to give their next ETF decision on August 16th, although this is widely expected to be delayed to September. However market sentiment remains positive on the impending decision and likely the reasoning behind the recent pump in BTCUSD as this anticipated approval is being priced in. I say "anticipated", but well-connected individuals may already have been advised of which way the decision is going to go. On the other hand, this could be a bull trap, it's very hard to say.
"With the release of an ETF, this allows investors to add BTC to their retirement portfolio. Global Pensions Market: $41.3 trillion. If BTC captures just 1% of global pensions, that would create $413,000,000,000 of exposure for cryptocurrencies."
These Bitcoin Futures expiration and ETF decision dates may or may not be included in your trading and investment strategies, but they are at the very least worth being aware of.
Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting. This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.