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Riding the Bull: Are We Set to Rally Higher?SPDR S&P 500 FUTURES CME_MINI:ESM2023 & AMEX:SPY ETF - Evening Market Update - 10/18/23 Today's Recap We saw a remarkable movement in ES over the past week. It was technical analysis at its finest: a 10-day tight range was followed by a breakout, just as the underlying trend suggested. As per historical trends, these range breakouts can lead to sustained rallies. Key Structures Several key structures have emerged that are worth watching: The Week-Long Triangle Structure: This structure triggered the recent breakout. The market dynamics can be summarized as follows: bulls control above it, and bears control below it. The back-test level is now 4140-42. The Purple Uptrend Channel: This structure, connecting the May 4th low and this week's low, is a crucial support area at around 4140-42. Bulls will want to hold this structure. The Blue and White Broadening Formation: This structure has been a focus in our discussions. The white broadening formation resistance, at around 4197, was the target for weeks, and it broke out late today. Support Levels As long as 4147 holds, we continue our upward trajectory. The 4140-42 area, derived from the triangle structure and the purple uptrend channel, is an obvious structure bulls want to hold. 4197, the previous resistance, has now turned into a support level. 4197-95 (major), 4182-85 (major), 4175, 4168, 4156 (major), 4140-42 (major - backtests the triangle breakout), 4135, 4126 (major - triangle support), 4114, 4106, 4092-95 (major - broadening formation support). Resistance Levels Initial resistance was at 4192, acting as a magnet, as previously identified. According to the blue broadening formation, the next major resistance level is now at 4242. 4212, 4221 (major), 4235, 4243 (major), 4249, 4263 (major), 4270-72, 4277 (major), 4296, 4306 (major). Trading Plan for Tomorrow The plan for tomorrow is straightforward: If the market remains above the key structures (4140-42), we should anticipate a continued upward trend toward the resistance at 4242. However, if the market dips below these structures, it could signal a shift in control to bears. Wrap Up Stay patient and adhere to your trading plan. Follow the key structures, resistance, and support levels closely. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Bulls Maintain Control as Market Holds Near Breakout LevelsThe market closed higher today. The move higher was driven by a number of factors, including stronger economic data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in June. However, the looking debt deadline is not in the review mirror yet. Key Points The market broke out from the tightest range seen since April 2017. The next level of resistance for ES_F is at 4175. If ES_F can break above this level, it could open the door to further gains towards 4200. The next major economic event for ES_F is the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 13-14. The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates. Bull Case As long as the 4155-47 breakout back-test area holds, bulls are in control. If it fails, bulls will want to recover quickly from 4135 support. Generally though, as long as that backtest holds, bulls are in control and we likely chop, bull flag, then continue to push to 4195 megaphone resistance. Possible pullback there then on to break the May highs. In terms of spots to add on strength, I will be watching for bull flag formation. We have the flag pole with todays rally, and the flagging would occur under 4178-80 and above 4166. If this flag can develop overnight, I may consider buying it in the morning. Bear Case Several levels need to fail for there to be any short-able bear case. The first warning, though is the 4147 breakout back-test. 4125 support needs to crack. However, a breakout short, perhaps 4122, to work down the levels to 4100 and lower. Final Thoughts The market is in a bullish trend, but it is important to be aware of the risks. The market could pull back in the coming days, especially if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, and it is important to be prepared for this possibility. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
5.15.23 RTYM23 Long RTY has been strong recovering from the recent banking sell-off (for the time being). Looking at a few demand areas for longs. The first zone is mean to be an overnight set and forget. The closer the zone to the origin of the move the better the chance of it working so the lower DZs are likely stronger. Watch for tomorrow's 8:30am Retail Sales reports as they could add volatility to the markets. If reports produce worse than expected numbers, market sentiment may shift in the short-term. - Trades taken using confirmation entires have a higher probability for sucess. - Using an initial 1:1 target is recommended for reducing risk. - Short-term income trade ideas are good for the day unless otherwise stated. *** For educational purposes only ***
CME_MINI:RTYM2023Long
by randy876
Chop or Pop? Tackle This Week's Tricky Market On $ES_F & $SPYIntraday Update Coming into this week, ES tested support at 4112 Friday with a double bottom. So far it’s been a choppy start to the OPEX week, with key support at 4132-29. There have been six round trips between ~4150s and 4120s, and we observed good follow-through in the market. 4155 just rejected down to 4136. Last Week We saw the market consolidating with 4165 resistance and 4115 support, as well as range expansion and complex trading patterns. The big picture context is a 1.5-month-long "megaphone" pattern, while the shorter term shows a smaller megaphone pattern with a 60% upside breakout bias. We also discussed the importance of level acceptance and not trading constantly in our trade recap. Plan for the Week Our focus this week is on navigating a tactical chop range between 4112 and 4181. The bull case for Monday is to defend 4129 and aim for 4145, 4158, and high 4170s. The bear case for Monday involves a loss of 4129 as the first warning, with a crack of 4112 for a real selloff. Expect tactical, trappy trading overall. Economic Events April Retail Sales: A potential downside surprise may affect rate pause and rate cut expectations. April Industrial Production: Expected to be flat; a higher-than-expected reading may support the Fed's hawkish stance. May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: An above-expectations reading is seen as inflationary. Bonds Update 2-year Treasury yield at 4%, little changed 10-year Treasury yield advanced to 3.494% 30-year Treasury yield climbed 5.5 basis points to 3.831% Support Levels 4129-32, 4118 (major), 4112 (major - broadening formation support), 4106, 4099 (major), 4089, 4078-81 (major), 4061, 4040-4045 (major), 4031, 4017-20 (major), 4005, 3980-85 (major), 3967 (major), 3950-54, 3937 (major). Resistance Levels 4147, 4158 (major), 4172-75 (major), 4180, 4191 (major), 4205, 4212, 4217, 4227 (major), 4236 (major - broadening formation resistance), 4243, 4252, 4270-75 (major), 4286. 4158 as well as 4172-75 are decent zones to look for reactions as is 4191. Summary In summary, the market experienced consolidation and complex trading patterns last week. This week, our focus is on navigating the tactical chop range between 4112 and 4181, with both bull and bear case scenarios in play. Economic events, such as April Retail Sales and Industrial Production, may impact decisions on rate pauses and cuts. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
QQQ Bear SetupNice setup here with great r/r. As you can see there is a good chance that we just completed an ending diagonal which is a pattern that breaks sharply to the downside. We also have triple bear divergence on the RSI confirming weakness and the ending diagonal pattern, The harmonic pattern is not something I typically make trade decisions based off of however it does add more context and support for the setup overall. Let me know what your thoughts are. Give me a like if you found this information to be beneficial to your trading plan. Thank you!
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by wstchse
6
Is a Two-Phase Market Sell-Off on the Horizon for $ES1/$SPY?SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( / AMEX:SPY ) - Market Update - 10/9/23 Introduction Monitoring possible market changes as we move through the constantly evolving financial environment is essential. In today’s release of the SPY Trading Pro newsletter, we will examine how a significant market decline may happen in two separate stages and its potential effects on investors who are either optimistic or pessimistic. We'll also talk about how economic occurrences like the imminent publishing of April's CPI figures can influence the market's direction. Phase 1: A Quick Tumble for CME_MINI:ES1! Futures The first phase of the predicted sell-off sees the CME_MINI:ES1! future losing a staggering 664 points over just five days. This rapid decline may prompt a market rebound, which would be the ideal outcome for bullish investors. However, if the market fails to recover at this point, we could be in for an even more significant downturn. Phase 2: A Prolonged Plunge Should the market not bounce back after Phase 1, we'll find ourselves in the midst of Phase 2. This would entail ES futures losing an additional 2,255 points over the following 23 days. When including Phase 1, the entire process would span 18 days, resulting in the most significant sell-off of the year – a 33% drop compared to the February to March decline. CPI Data and Market Trends Economic events often strongly influence market movements, and the upcoming release of April's CPI monthly data is no exception. Scheduled for release at 8:30 AM on 5/10/23, this crucial data could significantly impact market trends. Based on my analysis and signals, I expect the CPI to be hotter than the previous month, potentially contributing to the sell-off. Strategic Trade: PUT Options with Upcoming Expirations In anticipation of the potential market sell-off, I placed a trade today for 6/16/2023 expiration in-the-money (ITM) PUTs with a strike price of 414. This trade aims to capitalize on the market movement and secure profits amid the anticipated downturn. Additionally, I have set a limit order for 410 6/16/2023 expiration out-of-the-money (OTM) PUTs with a strike price of 405, providing a further opportunity to profit from the predicted sell-off. Support Levels: 4138 (major), 4134, 4123-4118 (major), 4110, 4095 (major), 4083-4078 (major), 4066, 4062 (major), 4048 (major), 4039, 4022-25 (major), 4010-4013 (major), 3987, 3981-3983 (major), 3974 (major), 3967, 3950-55 (major) Resistance Levels: 4142, 4147, 4156 (major), 4165, 4178-4181 (major), 4191, 4197 (major), 4205, 4212 (major), 4221, 4228 (major), 4242 (major), 4249, 4262, 4272 (major), 4281 (major), 4289, 4301-4305 (major), 4310, 4328 (major), 4341 (major) Conclusion: While predicting market movements is never an exact science, current indicators suggest we may be on the verge of a significant two-phase sell-off. By staying informed about economic events, such as the release of CPI data, investors can better prepare for these potential market shifts and make more informed decisions about their investments. Keep following the SPY Trading Pro newsletter for the latest market insights and trading strategies. Not Investment Advice: Please note that the information and strategies shared in this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only. They should not be considered investment advice, nor should they be used as a basis for making any investment decisions. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions, and ensure you understand the risks involved in trading and investing.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
3
XAUUSDI wanna explain this position First We have retest on the key level 4h Explain position If We switch timefrrime to 45min First candle close under resistance as we can see Second candle also close under resistance We expect now some thing come in next minutes Like we see what happen after close two candles I explain how I read the price action between multi timefrime Im not focus for one timefrime So I advise all my followers To be focus on the multi time frime It's amazing to be read the chart one thing last I wanna expain every position I take Good work for everyone Like and subscrib for more free informations Have good trade with good profits Thank you
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Hamzaelghandori222
woo usdt perpetual Hello fellow traders Greetings from team Trading The Tides lets talk about Woo which we been trading for the last 3 days and made around 30% in profits . today as the FOMC is really close and there many crucial Data down the line . First of all specifically today I don't see much buying in WOO , secondly Woo is creating more and more resistance to the upside , which make me think not to trade woo until it goes back to support and on atleast 15 min time frame creates a wick which in other sense gives idea about institution getting in to take the prices higher , so I will wait till then . My second opinion about woo is to break the lows of the symmetrical triangle on 4h , 1h and then we can plan a short trade again on the basis of breakdown structure with proper risk n reward . I don't take more than 2% SL so if the trade goes opposite , I will accept the SL and look out for other opportunities . Note : I am just a technical , fundamental analyst and day trader . Any info given is not a financial advice , i am only posting what i think is right , feel free to guide if u think i am wrong plz . Thanks .
by TradingTheTides