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Futurestrading

Can Bullrun Start Without Gap Fill? 🌄🕳️ The Gap Dilemma: Price gaps occur when there's a notable difference between the closing price of one trading period and the opening price of the next, often seen on the charts as a "hole" in price action. 🔍 Gap Filling: Traditional market wisdom suggests that gaps tend to get filled, meaning that the price revisits the gap area and trades within it. In Bitcoin's case, this could mean a retracement to fill a previous gap before further upward movement. 📈 Historical Anomalies: Interestingly, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to defy this norm. In its historical price data, there have been instances where significant bullish trends started without revisiting or filling previous gaps. 🌐 Market Sentiment: Bitcoin's behavior often reflects overall market sentiment. If there's overwhelming bullish sentiment, it might bypass gap filling and initiate an upward move. 🚧 Caution Required: While Bitcoin's past actions might suggest the possibility of such scenarios, it's important to approach each situation with caution. Market conditions can change, and historical patterns don't guarantee future outcomes. 💡 The Takeaway: Bitcoin's unique nature means it doesn't always conform to conventional market expectations. While gap filling is a common phenomenon, the cryptocurrency has demonstrated the ability to start bullish trends without revisiting these gaps. In trading and investing, adaptability and a comprehensive strategy are key. Keep a close eye on market sentiment, technical analysis, and news developments to make informed decisions. Remember, there are no absolutes in the crypto world, and flexibility in your approach is your greatest asset! 📊🚀
CME:BTC1!
by AlexWhale
📊#BTC Death Cross is about to flash!🆘📉 ‼️Dumping is not far away from us. This is not alarmist, because it is the general trend. Before making a specific analysis, we need to first understand an event that we should pay attention to in the future:👇 On October 17, the SEC will review 5 BTC spot ETFs again. Regardless of the outcome, the market will experience wild swings, so use necessary risk management.⚠️ 🧠Now that the event driving factors are in place, let’s analyze them based on the event expectations. Then I opened the EMA technical indicator and simulated its possible trajectory, and made a surprising discovery: the death cross is about to appear! ! ! ✔️We all know that technical indicators are delayed. When the death cross occurs, we may have missed the entire market opportunity. In addition, we have been consolidating here for a long time. BTC is likely to break the wedge structure and start falling before the 17th.📉 let us see👀
Short
by wolf_king888
Short-Term Outlook: ZN Bonds will decline to 109.16$.I. Bearish Momentum: The ZN bonds market has recently displayed signs of bearish momentum, with several key indicators pointing towards a potential downturn. One of the most notable factors contributing to this sentiment is the presence of strong seller volume, indicating that there is significant downward pressure on bond prices. II. Seller Dominance: Seller dominance can be a powerful indicator of market sentiment. When sellers outnumber buyers, it often leads to downward price movements. In the case of ZN bonds, the sellers have been in control, suggesting that the short-term bias leans towards a bearish outlook. III. Price Target: 109.16: Based on the current market conditions and the prevalence of seller dominance, it is reasonable to anticipate a decline in ZN bond prices. Our short-term price target is set at 109.16, which reflects the potential support level where prices may find temporary stabilization. IV. Intraday Resistance: 110.31: In addition to the seller dominance, there is a notable intraday resistance level at 110.31. This resistance level acts as an obstacle to any upward price movement and can further support the notion of a downward price trend. Traders should pay close attention to this level as it may provide an opportunity to enter short positions. In conclusion, the ZN bonds market appears poised for a short-term decline to the 109.16 price area, supported by seller dominance and the presence of an intraday resistance level at 110.31. As a bonds trader, it's vital to remain vigilant and adaptable to changing market conditions while implementing effective risk management strategies. The financial markets are dynamic, and staying informed is essential to making well-informed trading decisions.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by Gassem_futures
Grayscale Victory Funded by Perpetual Future BTC TradingIn the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to dominate the market, attracting both seasoned traders and new investors. Recent developments surrounding Grayscale's victory have shed light on the influence of perpetual future trading in shaping the BTC landscape. Today, we delve into this topic cautiously, urging traders to be wary of who trades BTC and to exercise prudence in their investment decisions. Unveiling the Grayscale Victory: Grayscale, a digital asset management firm, recently made headlines with its monumental victory in the SEC's lawsuit. This victory has solidified Grayscale's position in the market and highlighted the role of perpetual future trading in funding such endeavors. Endless future trading refers to a trading strategy where traders enter into contracts that do not have an expiration date, enabling them to hold positions indefinitely. The Influence of Perpetual Future Trading: While perpetual future trading has merits, it also introduces volatility and uncertainty into the BTC market. The ability to hold positions indefinitely allows traders to exert significant influence on the price movements of BTC. This influence, coupled with the vast resources at their disposal, can potentially distort the market and impact the decisions of other traders. A Call for Caution: Given the increasing prevalence of perpetual trading, BTC traders must exercise caution and remain vigilant. Here are a few points to consider: 1. Research and Verify: Before making any investment decisions, thoroughly research and verify the credibility and intentions of the parties involved. Look beyond the surface and explore the trading strategies employed by BTC entities. 2. Diversify Your Portfolio: Instead of relying solely on BTC, consider diversifying your portfolio with other cryptocurrencies or traditional assets. This approach can help mitigate risks associated with the influence of perpetual future trading on BTC. 3. Stay Informed: Regularly stay updated with the latest news and developments in the cryptocurrency market. You can better assess the impact of perpetual future trading and make informed investment decisions by keeping yourself informed. Conclusion: As BTC continues to gain popularity, traders must be cautious and discerning in their investment choices. The recent Grayscale victory, funded by perpetual future trading, is a timely reminder of the potential risks associated with this trading strategy. By researching, diversifying, and staying informed, traders can confidently navigate the BTC market and protect their investments. Call-to-Action: In this volatile landscape, it is crucial to remain cautious when trading BTC. Take the time to understand the motivations and trading strategies employed by entities involved in the market. By doing so, you can safeguard your investments and make informed decisions. Stay informed, diversify your portfolio, and trade responsibly.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
Natural Gas from Pipelines to PortfoliosNatural gas was once considered a byproduct of oil production. It is now becoming increasingly important as one of the cleanest burning fossil fuels and a key piece of the clean energy transition. Today, it forms the backbone of global energy production. This paper delves into the supply and demand factors affecting natural gas prices and proposes a long position in Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG1!) to harness gains from seasonal price trends with an entry of 2.484 with a target of 3.099 and a stop loss at 2.172 delivering risk/reward ratio of 2x. Natural Gas Supply and Demand Supply Largest producers and exporters of Natural Gas are US, Russia, Iran, China, Canada, Qatar, Australia, Norway, and Saudi Arabia. The standout in the list is Russia. Following the conflict in Ukraine, gas exports from Russia plummeted 58% in 2022. This led to price shocks in EU natural gas (TTF). US supply is unable to adequately bridge this deficit as transporting natural gas using ships requires converting it to Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and using special refrigerated vessels which is not economical for large quantities of natural gas. This is also why the spread between EU and US natural gas is much wider than EU and US oil. Notably, US shale reserves have a high concentration of natural gas. Along with newly developed fracking techniques, this has led to increasing gas production in the US. Moreover, natural gas is also obtained in the process of oil extraction, which means gas production is linked to oil production. This has interesting ramifications when looking at present supply. Despite low natural gas prices over the past few months, production in the US has remained high as a result of high oil production. Similarly, higher prices do not readily translate to higher production. This suggests that Natural Gas price-supply relationship is inelastic. Demand Demand for Natural Gas comes from: • Energy Production – Natural Gas is used in power plants to generate electricity. Natural Gas electricity production has been rising over the last decade as it replaces Coal. Notably, manufacturers using natural gas as an energy source can switch to other energy sources during price spike, which provides some elasticity to demand. • Commercial and Residential Heating – Natural Gas is used for heating homes in winter. This can lead to a seasonal demand during winter months in the Northern Hemisphere. • Industrial Use – Natural Gas is used as a raw material for industrial products such as plastics, ammonia, and methanol. Natural gas demand is heavily affected by weather. Unusually warm summers in the Northern Hemisphere drive higher energy usage from air conditioners while colder winters drive higher demand for heating. Inventories Gas can be injected into storage facilities and stored for later use. These inventory levels play a major role in balancing supply-demand. Summer months (April-October) are referred to as injection periods while winter months (November-March) are withdrawal periods. Inventory levels help even out the surge in winter demand. However, natural gas is much harder to store than oil as it is less dense. This means the inventory effect is not as apparent which explains the larger seasonal variation in natural gas prices as compared to oil prices. Seasonality in Natural Gas Prices Seasonal price action of Natural Gas shows two distinct price rallies. A large rally during winter in the US and EU driven by surge in supply for heating in winters, during this period, prices peak in early-December before declining. The other, smaller spike is during summers in the US and EU when demand for electricity rises, during this period, prices peak in early-June before declining. Further, prices show the highest deviation from the seasonal trend in late-September. Over the past five years, the winter rally has become wider, with prices staying elevated from August to early-December. Additionally, seasonal trend points to a price appreciation of +11% between September and December. However, investors should note that past seasonal trends are not representative of current or future market performance. Henry Hub Futures Henry Hub is the most prominent gas trading hub in the world. It is located at the intersection of major on-shore and off-shore production regions and connected by an extensive pipeline network. This is also where US natural gas exports are dispatched. CME’s benchmark Natural Gas futures (NG) deliver to Henry Hub and is the largest gas futures contract in the world. Other notable Natural Gas futures contracts are TTF (EU) and JKM (Asia). Futures from both regions are also available for trading on CME. Asset Managers are Bullish Commercial traders are heavily net short on Natural Gas futures, short positioning in July was at its highest level since 2021 but has since reduced. Overall, net short commercial positioning points to bullish sentiment. Asset managers have switched positioning in Natural Gas futures from net short to net long since May. Last week net long positioning reached its highest level since May 2022. Options markets OI points to a neutral market view on natural gas with Put/Call ratio close to 1. Options P/C has stayed close to 1 for the past 3 months. At the same time, Implied Volatility on Natural Gas options has been rising in August. A rally last week failed to break past a key support level but vols remain elevated suggesting that price may retest that level again. Henry Hub Gas Dynamics with European Gas Last week, EU Natural Gas futures (TTF1!) spiked by almost 28% due to a strike at Australia’s second largest LNG plant, still the rally soon retraced almost entirely. LNG supply disruption, especially at the key transition to the winter season can lead to volatility spikes. Though, EU gas inventories are 90% full, supply disruptions like this can still have a major effect on gas prices but especially on volatility. Over the past few years, higher flexibility and capacity in the global LNG supply chain has led to the various global natural gas benchmarks tracking each other more closely. This means that Henry Hub natural gas futures are exposed not just to US and Canada Natural Gas production but also to disruptions in global supply. However, the effect is comparatively limited due to ample supply in the US. This can be seen in the price action of Henry Hub natural gas futures which rose by 6% on the same day. Recent Trend in Natural Gas Inventories As per the EIA, Natural Gas supply fell 0.1% WoW last week. At the same time demand rose by 0.3% WoW. Note that working natural gas in underground storage has started to flatten over the past 4 weeks, rising by just 94 billion cubic feet (BCf) compared to the 5Y average increase of 140 BCf during the same period. Still, inventory levels are close to the top of their 5-year maximum, elevated by high US gas production during the summer driven by higher oil production. EIA forecasts that the depletion season will end with inventories 7% higher than their 5-year average. EIA expects production to remain flat for the remainder of the year, so watching weekly consumption reports could point to early indicators of seasonal inventory depletion. However, due to elevated inventory levels, the seasonal effect may not be as strong as prior years. In a longer-term trend, gas rigs in the US have started to decline this year after surging over the past year. This will likely lead to lower production over the next year. Trade Setup With options markets pointing bullish and seasonal trends suggesting price appreciation during this period, a long position in Natural Gas futures expiring in October (NGV) allows investors to benefit from an increase in Natural Gas prices. Each contract of CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures provide exposure to 10,000 MMBtu of Natural Gas while the October contract has maintenance margin of USD 5,070 for a long position. A USD 0.001 MMBtu change in quoted price per MMBtu leads to a PnL change of USD 10 in one Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures. Entry: 2.484 Target: 3.099 Stop Loss: 2.172 Profit at Target: USD 6,150 Loss at Stop: USD 3,120 Reward/Risk: 2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by mintdotfinance
17