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Chop or Pop? Tackle This Week's Tricky Market On $ES_F & $SPYIntraday Update Coming into this week, ES tested support at 4112 Friday with a double bottom. So far it’s been a choppy start to the OPEX week, with key support at 4132-29. There have been six round trips between ~4150s and 4120s, and we observed good follow-through in the market. 4155 just rejected down to 4136. Last Week We saw the market consolidating with 4165 resistance and 4115 support, as well as range expansion and complex trading patterns. The big picture context is a 1.5-month-long "megaphone" pattern, while the shorter term shows a smaller megaphone pattern with a 60% upside breakout bias. We also discussed the importance of level acceptance and not trading constantly in our trade recap. Plan for the Week Our focus this week is on navigating a tactical chop range between 4112 and 4181. The bull case for Monday is to defend 4129 and aim for 4145, 4158, and high 4170s. The bear case for Monday involves a loss of 4129 as the first warning, with a crack of 4112 for a real selloff. Expect tactical, trappy trading overall. Economic Events April Retail Sales: A potential downside surprise may affect rate pause and rate cut expectations. April Industrial Production: Expected to be flat; a higher-than-expected reading may support the Fed's hawkish stance. May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: An above-expectations reading is seen as inflationary. Bonds Update 2-year Treasury yield at 4%, little changed 10-year Treasury yield advanced to 3.494% 30-year Treasury yield climbed 5.5 basis points to 3.831% Support Levels 4129-32, 4118 (major), 4112 (major - broadening formation support), 4106, 4099 (major), 4089, 4078-81 (major), 4061, 4040-4045 (major), 4031, 4017-20 (major), 4005, 3980-85 (major), 3967 (major), 3950-54, 3937 (major). Resistance Levels 4147, 4158 (major), 4172-75 (major), 4180, 4191 (major), 4205, 4212, 4217, 4227 (major), 4236 (major - broadening formation resistance), 4243, 4252, 4270-75 (major), 4286. 4158 as well as 4172-75 are decent zones to look for reactions as is 4191. Summary In summary, the market experienced consolidation and complex trading patterns last week. This week, our focus is on navigating the tactical chop range between 4112 and 4181, with both bull and bear case scenarios in play. Economic events, such as April Retail Sales and Industrial Production, may impact decisions on rate pauses and cuts. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
QQQ Bear SetupNice setup here with great r/r. As you can see there is a good chance that we just completed an ending diagonal which is a pattern that breaks sharply to the downside. We also have triple bear divergence on the RSI confirming weakness and the ending diagonal pattern, The harmonic pattern is not something I typically make trade decisions based off of however it does add more context and support for the setup overall. Let me know what your thoughts are. Give me a like if you found this information to be beneficial to your trading plan. Thank you!
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by wstchse
6
Is a Two-Phase Market Sell-Off on the Horizon for $ES1/$SPY?SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( / AMEX:SPY ) - Market Update - 10/9/23 Introduction Monitoring possible market changes as we move through the constantly evolving financial environment is essential. In today’s release of the SPY Trading Pro newsletter, we will examine how a significant market decline may happen in two separate stages and its potential effects on investors who are either optimistic or pessimistic. We'll also talk about how economic occurrences like the imminent publishing of April's CPI figures can influence the market's direction. Phase 1: A Quick Tumble for CME_MINI:ES1! Futures The first phase of the predicted sell-off sees the CME_MINI:ES1! future losing a staggering 664 points over just five days. This rapid decline may prompt a market rebound, which would be the ideal outcome for bullish investors. However, if the market fails to recover at this point, we could be in for an even more significant downturn. Phase 2: A Prolonged Plunge Should the market not bounce back after Phase 1, we'll find ourselves in the midst of Phase 2. This would entail ES futures losing an additional 2,255 points over the following 23 days. When including Phase 1, the entire process would span 18 days, resulting in the most significant sell-off of the year – a 33% drop compared to the February to March decline. CPI Data and Market Trends Economic events often strongly influence market movements, and the upcoming release of April's CPI monthly data is no exception. Scheduled for release at 8:30 AM on 5/10/23, this crucial data could significantly impact market trends. Based on my analysis and signals, I expect the CPI to be hotter than the previous month, potentially contributing to the sell-off. Strategic Trade: PUT Options with Upcoming Expirations In anticipation of the potential market sell-off, I placed a trade today for 6/16/2023 expiration in-the-money (ITM) PUTs with a strike price of 414. This trade aims to capitalize on the market movement and secure profits amid the anticipated downturn. Additionally, I have set a limit order for 410 6/16/2023 expiration out-of-the-money (OTM) PUTs with a strike price of 405, providing a further opportunity to profit from the predicted sell-off. Support Levels: 4138 (major), 4134, 4123-4118 (major), 4110, 4095 (major), 4083-4078 (major), 4066, 4062 (major), 4048 (major), 4039, 4022-25 (major), 4010-4013 (major), 3987, 3981-3983 (major), 3974 (major), 3967, 3950-55 (major) Resistance Levels: 4142, 4147, 4156 (major), 4165, 4178-4181 (major), 4191, 4197 (major), 4205, 4212 (major), 4221, 4228 (major), 4242 (major), 4249, 4262, 4272 (major), 4281 (major), 4289, 4301-4305 (major), 4310, 4328 (major), 4341 (major) Conclusion: While predicting market movements is never an exact science, current indicators suggest we may be on the verge of a significant two-phase sell-off. By staying informed about economic events, such as the release of CPI data, investors can better prepare for these potential market shifts and make more informed decisions about their investments. Keep following the SPY Trading Pro newsletter for the latest market insights and trading strategies. Not Investment Advice: Please note that the information and strategies shared in this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only. They should not be considered investment advice, nor should they be used as a basis for making any investment decisions. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions, and ensure you understand the risks involved in trading and investing.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
3
XAUUSDI wanna explain this position First We have retest on the key level 4h Explain position If We switch timefrrime to 45min First candle close under resistance as we can see Second candle also close under resistance We expect now some thing come in next minutes Like we see what happen after close two candles I explain how I read the price action between multi timefrime Im not focus for one timefrime So I advise all my followers To be focus on the multi time frime It's amazing to be read the chart one thing last I wanna expain every position I take Good work for everyone Like and subscrib for more free informations Have good trade with good profits Thank you
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Hamzaelghandori222
woo usdt perpetual Hello fellow traders Greetings from team Trading The Tides lets talk about Woo which we been trading for the last 3 days and made around 30% in profits . today as the FOMC is really close and there many crucial Data down the line . First of all specifically today I don't see much buying in WOO , secondly Woo is creating more and more resistance to the upside , which make me think not to trade woo until it goes back to support and on atleast 15 min time frame creates a wick which in other sense gives idea about institution getting in to take the prices higher , so I will wait till then . My second opinion about woo is to break the lows of the symmetrical triangle on 4h , 1h and then we can plan a short trade again on the basis of breakdown structure with proper risk n reward . I don't take more than 2% SL so if the trade goes opposite , I will accept the SL and look out for other opportunities . Note : I am just a technical , fundamental analyst and day trader . Any info given is not a financial advice , i am only posting what i think is right , feel free to guide if u think i am wrong plz . Thanks .
by TradingTheTides
ES Sunday Trend Analysis We are still ranging in this orange downtrend channel but still within the larger purple channel. We broke out of the uptrend that price was following since March, so where we go from here is yet determined. If the purple channel is broken to the downside, I believe we'll see some selling pressure, if we hold, I believe we can work our way above 4200. Price has been holding 4145-4150 since Friday the 14th and price has tested it multiple times since then, making it weaker each time we tough. If 4140 fails and we close blow, 4128-4122 is my target. I wouldn't be interested in any longs on a bounce, as the risk to reward isn't there while we are still within the orange downtrading channel. I would try longs off of 4122-4128 bounces and I would try shorts off of 4150.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AmpedTrading
ES Trend Analysis UpdateIt is clear on one thing. ES is basing for either a large move up, or down. Which direction? Who knows. We just have to react when it does. You can see ES is still within this purple main channel but riding the orange trend down. We have already broken out of the main uptrend (white), which usually indicates price would like to retest the highs or make a new high. If ES retests the main purple channel's support around the time it touches the orange downtrend's support at ~4126, ES could see another dip buy with strong momentum. Strong momentum buys or sells usually can be seen when two trend correlate with each other. On the other hand, if we fail 4126, we can probably see 4100-4080.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AmpedTrading
ES Measured Move and Running out of Steam?I do believe it's time for a slight cool off for the ES. The swings are getting smaller and we are getting tighter. Currently in a fairly large channel (main channel) but currently still in an uptrend as well. With the swings getting smaller, we will either break to the upside for a push above 4200, or break down for a cool off period back to around 4130-4100. We have also completed two legs up for a measured move. Looking like it's time for some correction. I am currently short at the 77's with profit targets of 65 (targeting the uptrend support) and 50 (targeting a breakdown of the uptrend and a third retest of ~50.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by AmpedTrading