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BTCUSDTPERP- Trading from these zones is...the best strategy to make a lot money. Hi, in today's post we're going to talk about imbalances and wicks(candle shadows). All you need for your successful trading is to find these zones on high timeframes(month, week, day, 4h) and trade on low timeframes using setups( 5minutes - 1 hour). Imbalances are the places, where the price was traded ineffectively. For finding these zones, you can use indicator "Imbalance finder" Wicks are the places, where price collected stop loses and went in the opposite direction. The main task of algorithms is to fill these zones. When the price approaches these zones, we can expect a good reaction on low timeframes. We don't use levels from which there was a reaction. Monthly Chart Support levels: 0.5 wick (month) - 19369.4 ---------- imbalance (month) - 17604.4 0.5 imbalance (month) - 15926.5 FullFill (month) - 14217.5 ----------- imbalance (month) - 13215.8 0.5 imbalance (month) - 12620.8 FullFill (month) - 11951.6 Resistance levels: FullFill (month) - 26695.5 0.5 imbalance (month) - 25739 imbalance (month) - 24727.1 Hope that this information was useful for you. You can practise finding these zones on weekly, daily, 4h chart. Do I need to tell how to find setups on lower timeframes? If YES, send + in comments.
by Anastasia_Momont
Short the Hog Margin If You Expect Lower Pork PriceCME:HE1! CBOT:ZC1! CBOT:ZM1! On August 1st, USDA Daily Hog and Pork Report shows that benchmark Iowa Carcass Base Price averages $128/cwt. This is a 15% increase year-over-year, and a whopping 70% higher than the five-year average of $75. Is pork still affordable? Meanwhile in the futures market, while August Lean Hog contract (HEQ2) is quoted at $120.50/cwt, October (HEV2) is sharply lower at $97, and December (HEZ2) is even lower at $87.80. Do we expect pork price to fall a few months down the road? Let’s find out what moves pork price. We start with hog production. It consists of five phases: 1. Farrow-to-wean 2. Feeder pig 3. Finishing 4. Breeding stock 5. Farrow-to-finish Pork price fluctuates following a cobweb pattern due to production lags and adaptive expectations, according to Cambridge economist Nicholas Kaldor. When prices are higher, it draws more investments. However, due to breeding time, there is lapse in the cycle. Eventually, market becomes saturated, leading to a decline in prices. Production is thus decreased. Again, this leads to increased demand and prices. The Hog Cycle repeats, producing a supply-demand graph resembling a cobweb. Hog farmers make business decisions based on their expectations of production profit, which is called Hog Crush Margin . It is defined by the value of lean hog (LH) less the cost of weaned pig (WP), corn (C) and soybean meal (SBM). Below is a sample formula. HCM = 2 x LH - WP - 10 x C -.075 x SBM In futures market, traders could replicate the economic hog crush margin with a Hog Feeding Spread involving CME lean hog (HE), CBOT Corn (ZC) and CBOT Soybean Meal (ZM). There is no futures contract for weaned pig (piglet). The size of relevant futures contracts: HE, 40,000 lbs.; ZC, 5,000 bushels; and ZM, 100 short tons. A typical hog feeding spread is 7:3:1, which may be expressed as: Hog Feeding Spread = 7 x HE – 3 x ZC – 1 x ZM If you expect hog margin to grow, Long the feeding spread: Buy lean hog, sell corn and soybean meal. For a shrinking margin, Short the spread: Sell hog, buy corn and meal. According to Chicago-based consultancy CIH, hog margin for July 1st-15th was $16.74. Margins surged over the first half of July as hog futures rallied while projected feed costs mostly trended sideways during this period. I expect a narrower hog crush margin going into 2023. It may likely turn negative. My theory : On the one hand, corn and soybean meal prices may fall but stay elevated. Russia-Ukraine conflict, bad weather and supply chain bottleneck present real risk for global food supply shortage. On the other hand, pork price could fall faster than feed ingredients. The combined effect is a narrowing hog crush margin. Several factors are at work: Firstly, the hog cycle. Higher price this year will induce more production next year, eventually lowering price. Secondly, with hyperinflation and a pending recession, we should expect substitution effect. Consumer would choose lower-priced protein over pork, reducing pork demand. Finally, China is the wild card. China is the world's largest pork producer. In 2018, it produced 54 million tons (MT) of pork, accounting for 45% of global pork production. With the outbreak of African Swine Fever starting in August 2018, it is estimated that half of China’s hog stock was wiped out over the next year. Pork production in 2019 was 42.55 MT, down 21%. To make up for the shortfall in domestic supply, China began buying pork in the global market in a big way. Frozen pork import grew from 1.19 MT in 2018, to 2.11 MT in 2019 (+75%), and 4.39 MT in 2020 (+108%), which took up half of global pork trades that year. CME lean hog rallied 60% in 2019. More buying from China means more pork demand in Americas and Europe. Global pork price and pork futures price both went up as a result. However, the party did not last long. China’s large hog firms aggressively racked up production capacity with government support. Muyang Group SZSE:002714 , the largest hog producer in the world, grew sales from 9 million hogs in 2019, to 18 million in 2020 (+100%), and 40 million in 2021 (+120%). It is on track to produce 55-60 million hogs this year (+38%~+50%). With domestic production largely recovered, China reduced pork import to 3.71 MT in 2021, down 15%. For the first six months in 2022, China imported only 810,000 tons, down 65% from the same period in 2021. China’s pork price has doubled from its February low. Again, with the Hog Cycle at work, there will be an oversupply of pork next year, further reducing the need for import. We could examine corn price trend further. Corn generally traded in the range of $3 to $4.50 per bushel but shot up to $7 in May 2021. It broke record again this year at $8 per bushel in April. I expect the corn price to fall but stay elevated from previous-year level. Soybean Meal is 50% higher than two years ago. Again, I expect it to fall but stay higher than pre-2020 level. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:HE1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1
ICX BREAKOUT HAPPEN ON 1 DAY TIME FRAME ICX ANALYSIS FOR SCALP AND SWING TRADE ICX breakout happen from a long term bearish trend at 0.37 faced rejection at 0.42 and drops till 0.235 but didn`t close a single candle below that breakout trendline , icx confirm its bottom by making tripple bottom pattern and price was moving in Rectangle with LH pattern and now breakout happen from tripple bottom pattern and rectangle pattern Breakout will confirm on 4h candle closing above 0.35 now icx getting rejection from 0.347 and testing its breakout support area which is on 0.32 for spot do some buying on following areas 0.32 - 0.3 with expected targets 0.35 - 0.366 - 0.379 and 0.4 for future swing you can go with 8% of your portfolio by picking it with 4% portfolio on 0.32 range and 4% on 0.3 and targets will remain same for scalp follow the indicator 5min time frame and 15min time frame for picking it from the mentioned supports 0.32 and 0.30 and use the same strategy 5% portfolio and 20x lev and start booking your profit between 20% to 100% on 20x lev . for future swing and scalp only pick it after confirmation of indicator for spot pick on mention areas for short term with 15% to 25% target
Long
by TeamCaptainAlts
1
ETH/USD SHORTAnother short entered for ETH/USD on July 31 at 3pm at 1725. Previous short was stopped out due to small SL, there was some chop and ranging over the weekend, however with new week coming a good short setup presented itself Confirmation was provided after weekend manipulation with liquidity grab both sides. Very small SL for 7$ move just above 1730 with initial target at 13:1 RR. Currently targeting $1560 with total 21:1 RR. Total targeting $160 move with possibility for continuation if an opportunity presents itself. Ideas that we are trading are supply and demand for smart money concepts and overall looking at liquidations levels for high and medium leveraged trades etc. Ethereum reached 1700$ last week which was a support previously and turned to a major resistance. New month of August is expected to be bearish with different fundamental factors such as high inflation, US entering into a recession, tensions between China & Taiwan + other major factors. Overall, looking for crypto to create a bottom in Q4 around October-November, until then not expecting any major upside movements or break of BTC above 28k. Follow to stay up to date with our ideas, soon more ideas will be posted in advance. Good trading week all! Cheers, DB
BINANCE:ETHUSD.PShort
by bans777
2
ZW / WHEAT FUTURESAbout FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS . ---We are now in the corn-demand zone and there are many factors supporting the buying. 1-The Ukrainian war. 2- - dehydration. 3-The rise in the price of oil will lead to a rise in the price of transportation. About TECHNICAL ANALYSIS --- we look at (" Sell VOLUME ") and ("Sell pressure") is in decreasing , Volume drives all markets. About Psycho- --- The short sellers start to take their money from wheat market because of a psycho- demand zone.
CBOT:ZW1!
by Gassem_futures
ZC / Corn futures ZC / CORN FUTURES About FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS. ---We are now in the corn-demand zone and there are many factors supporting the buying. 1-The Ukrainian war. 2- - dehydration. 3-The rise in the price of oil will lead to a rise in the price of transportation. About TECHNICAL ANALYSIS --- we look at (" Sell VOLUME ") and ("Sell pressure") is in decreasing , Volume drives all markets. About Psycho- --- The short sellers start to take their money from CORN market because of a psycho- demand zone.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Gassem_futures
ETH/USD SHORTHi again, everyone! After our previous LONG post we are now looking for SHORTs. Ethereum broke out above previous highs, however this looks more like a manipulation by whales to liquidate early shorters. An entry at 1730 with tight stops at $1745 ( 2% risk) and targeting first 7:1 RR at $1610 with a potential for 15:1 RR at $1510. With such high risk trade, tight stop loss is a must. Overall we have made a BOS on a 3 min TF and candle shave exhausted by the end of London session. Potentially stronger PA will come at Asian session after 8PM EST. We are first targeting today's daily supply and then supply from July 26. Good trading everyone and thanks for your time. More to come soon! Cheers, DB
BINANCE:ETHUSD.PShort
by bans777
2
Brent Oil in trading range, low volumeMOEX:BR1! Brent Oil Futures has been in a trading range since March of 2022 on the daily chart forming a rectangle pattern. The support is found at $96.00 and the resistance at $124.00. A close above $127.00 will confirm the pattern's breakout, with a target price of $152.00. A close below $90.20 will confirm the pattern's breakout, with a price target of $73.30. Note that not every price target is met. $BR1! has been trading below the 100 EMA since the first week of July of 2022. It is essential to observe the low trading volume since the month of March. A low volume after an uptrend could indicate that the trend is ending, and a reversal might start.
RUS:BR1!
by SanchezAxline
SEE THIS BEFORE TAKING ANY LONG POSITION! ALTPERP UPDATE!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Welcome to this ALTPERP update. Here is the 3hr chart of Altperp. Altperp is a index which we can use while we trade in futures Altcoins. As you see in the chart, Altperp is retesting the symmetrical triangle after the breakdown. After this successfully retest we can expect a drop in this index so we can see drop in Altcoins too. So imo it's a bit risky to taking a long position here. Invalidation level:- If it break above the triangle then this chart become invalidated. If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow. Also, share your views in the comment section. Thank You!
FTX:ALTPERPShort
by CoreCrypto1
1