Get started

Futurestrading

Emini Elliott Wave Possibilities. Right now the Price Action is hitting many markers for an impulse move from the High. All of the notes are for the bearish impulse down, but time is running out for this sideways Wave 4 move, its getting a bit big in relation to the Wave 2. A break above 4478 would have me a bit suspicious if it is still a valid impulse, though 4572 is the official invalidation. Indicators are pointing towards a possibility of more down as well. A price drop below the current low with divergance on the indicators, would lend toward the possibility of a completed impulse and a move up. MO
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by CryptoKnee
LUNAUSD 15m Trend Line Analysis with Trading Zones!Play the chart with simple rules: Buy/Sell into entries when the candle completes above "Long Entry", or when candle completes under "Short Entry" Have small stop losses (10-15 pips) in order to not encounter a fake out (goes above our entry line and goes back down for example) Play with minimum 2 positions. Once trades hits TP1, change stop loss to break even, making it a risk free trade. If passes TP2, change stop loss again to TP1 to lock in profit if trade goes in reversal. Have tight stop losses to lock in profit, If trade hits TP3, closes. If you do see a reversal (For example going from TP2 short to TP1 short, get into a BUY and have take profit @entry point) If trade breaks through our TP3, wait for a candle to come back to it and reverse the trade back to entry. Once a candle breaks above/below our trend line that's a perfect time to get into the trade.
L
by CoverchefsFX
GC1!Futures In A Very Important Area! (daily analytics)Is the market is close to break the resistance? According to my technicale analysis of The Gold Futures , we can see that the gold market is in a trading range, and it's approaching a very important zone. Stay tuned, we note that we are goning to see Long trend in the next few weeks! Why get subbed to me on Tradingview? * Professional chart break downs * Supply/Demand Zones * TD9 counts / combo review * Key S/R levels * No junk on my charts * Frequent updates * Before/after analysis * 24/7 uptime so constant updates 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment for support ! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.tight stop loss.
COMEX:GC1!
by ALMAZakaria
2
What is lumber telling us about the economy?The lumber price was nothing short of wild in 2021. After rising to a new all-time high at $1711.20 in May, the price plunged, reaching a bottom at $488 per 1,000 board feet in August. Lumber fell to under one-third the price at the high in three months. Rates are heading higher Lumber has been rallying A spring scramble for new homes Infrastructure rebuilding requires more wood Lumber says inflation will continue unless the Fed gets serious The lumber futures arena is illiquid. On most days, fewer than 500 contracts change hands. The total number of open long and short positions at 2,458 contracts at the end of last week reflects the low market participation level. Crude oil’s open interest was over 2.01 million contracts, and gold’s stood at over 531,000 contracts. The lack of liquidity makes lumber untradeable for speculators and investors. Hedgers experience problematic margin calls because of the high volatility. Illiquid markets like lumber tend to experience far more price variance than liquid markets as bids evaporate during selloffs and offers to sell disappear during rallies. The low volume and open interest level exacerbate price moves, creating highs and lows that defy logic, reason, and rational fundamental analysis. I do not trade lumber as the futures arena is a roach motel. Getting into the wrong position is easy; a risk position in the correct direction can be problematic. When wrong, getting out is often impossible as limit moves are the norm, not the exception. While I do not participate, I am a keener observer of the price action in lumber as it is an industrial raw material that provides clues about the path of least resistance of other industrial commodities and the overall economic landscape. Rates are heading higher Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose by 7% in 2021. Excluding food and energy, inflation rose 5.5% in 2021, which was far above the Fed’s 2% average target rate. Measuring inflation by excluding food and energy may suit economists because prices can be highly volatile, but it is a mirage for the average consumer as food and energy make up significant percentages of household budgets. Meanwhile, the producer price index of wholesale prices rose by nearly 10% in 2021. The latest inflation reports only increase the chances of the end of quantitative easing and liftoff from a zero percent Fed Funds rate in March 2022. The Fed will likely begin to reduce its swollen balance sheet simultaneously which will tighten credit further out along the yield curve as bonds roll off and are not replaced. The central bank is not likely to miss a step as it shifts from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening. The latest CPI data validates that the US Federal Reserve is far behind the inflationary curve. Tightening credit via higher interest rates has become a certainty in early 2022. Lumber has been rallying Lumber may be one of the most illiquid futures markets, but it is a bellwether industrial commodity. After a highly volatile 2021, the lumber price moved back into bullish mode after reaching a bottom in August 2021. The monthly chart (featured above) highlights that nearby lumber futures settled at $873.10 per 1,000 board feet at the end of 2020. Lumber was already trading at an elevated price. Before 2017, the all-time high was in 1993 at $493.50 per 1,000 board feet. While many commodities tend to rise and fall to illogical, irrational, and unreasonable prices that defy fundamental and technical analysis when they move, less liquid markets tend to experience magnified price volatility. During significant price moves, bids or offers in less than liquid markets can evaporate, causing price gaps and moves to levels that market participants never believed possible. Lumber futures rose to a high of $1711.20 per 1,000 board feet, an all-time high, in May 2021 where they ran out of upside steam. They proceeded to plunge to less than one-third of that price over three months, reaching a low of $488 in August 2021. Lumber reached unsustainable prices on the up and downside. At the end of last week, it was elevator up again for lumber with the price above the $1300 per 1,000 board feet level. March lumber futures settled at $1308.70 on Friday, January 14. The total open interest of 2,458 contracts and daily trading volume below 500 contracts make lumber untradeable, but it is a critical market to watch as it provides clues about other raw material prices and the economy’s overall state. A spring scramble for new homes Lumber’s latest ascent is likely because of a scramble to buy new homes before interest rates move appreciably higher. Wood is a critical construction component. The Fed’s plans to increase short-term rates and tighten credit will not happen overnight; it will be a slow and steady process that will take years. Three factors support the increasing demand for new homes in 2022: Rising interest rates will push mortgage rates higher over the coming years. New home buyers are under pressure to lock in interest rate risks at historically low levels as 30-Year conventional mortgage rates remain below the 4% level. The migration from cities and high-tax states supports new home building in low-tax states like Florida, Texas, Tennessee, and Nevada. In those states, home buyers are waiting up to one year or more for new home deliveries as builders cannot keep up with the demand. The incredible gains in real estate prices since early 2020 have caused a frenzy of buying where homes are selling above initial offer prices and have been rising each week. Few things entice buyers like a bull market trend. Framing lumber is at the heart of the construction business and is pushing wood’s price higher in January 2022. Rising interest rates mean that procrastinating buyers are likely to pull the trigger over the coming months. Infrastructure rebuilding requires more wood In 2021, the US passed an infrastructure rebuilding package to build and refresh roads, bridges, tunnels, airports, government buildings, schools, and many other parts of infrastructure over the coming years. Construction projects will require wood, increasing the demand. Meanwhile, Canadian supplies have struggled to keep pace with the US demand, putting upward pressure on prices. New COVID-19 variants only increase supply chain bottlenecks and mill issues for the lumber industry. Lumber says inflation will continue unless the Fed gets serious The trend in lumber remains bullish, with the price now above the 2021 midpoint at the $1,100 per 1,000 board feet level. We are coming into the peak season for construction projects in the spring, which means demand is likely to continue to increase over the coming months. Lumber’s price action has been head-spinning. The wood price is a barometer for the housing market and all industrial commodities. Over the past weeks, crude oil, copper, and other industrial raw material prices have been rising. WTI and Brent crude oil prices were back over the $83 per barrel level in early 2022, threatening to move to new multi-year highs above the early October 2021 peaks. Copper traded to the $4.60 per pound level last week, the highest price since October 2021 before correcting to the $4.40 level. Natural gas prices were back over $4.25 per MMBtu, after trading below $3.55 in late December. Lumber had led the way higher for many industrial commodities as the price eclipsed the $1000 level in early December when most industrial commodities were under selling pressure. Lumber is a bellwether and an indicator that provides clues about the industrial commodities sector, and it is also an economic barometer that tells us about the housing market. In mid-January 2022, the wood market is screaming that inflation remains the most significant financial challenge facing markets across all asset classes this year. The US central bank’s most recent forecast of a 0.90% Fed Funds rate in 2022 and 1.60% in 2023 is far short of what is necessary to stem inflation. Lumber’s price action screams that the Fed is far behind the inflationary curve. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
L
by Andy_Hecht
1
Commodities In 2021 and a View for 2022It is official- Inflation is no longer “transitory,” according to the US central bank. After blaming rising prices on pandemic-inspired supply chain bottlenecks throughout 2021, the Federal Reserve swallowed its pride, admitting inflationary pressures are far more structural than “transitory.” Economist Mohamed El Erian called “transitory” the worst call in the Fed’s history. What the Fed, US Treasury, and most mainstream economists have not said is that the blame lies at their feet. The liquidity tidal wave and stimulus tsunami lit the inflationary fuse in 2020 that continues to burn in early 2022. The dollar index may have rallied by 6.34% in 2021, but its appreciation is little more than a mirage. The foreign exchange market conveniently measures one currency’s value against another. The dollar’s ascent may make the greenback the strongest fiat currency, but it is the best horse in the glue factor when it comes to value. All fiats have lost purchasing power since 2020, and the dollar is no exception. The stock market, real estate prices, cryptocurrencies, and commodities have all experienced substantial price appreciation, which is also a mirage. Fiat currency’s purchasing power continues to decline, and that trend remains firmly intact as we head into 2022. Commodity prices began rallying after reaching bottoms in early 2020 as the pandemic swept across the world. The rally continued in 2021 and looks set to take prices to higher lows and higher highs in 2022. 2021 was a very bullish year in the commodities asset class A composite of 29 of the leading and most liquid commodities futures and forwards that trade on the US and UK futures and forwards exchange moved 4.73% higher in Q4 2021 and 26.79% higher in 2021. In Q4, the leading sectors posted the following results: Base metals moved 9.65% higher Grains gained 9.31% Animal proteins moved 4.73% higher Soft commodities appreciated by 4.25% Precious metals posted a 2.80% gain Energy commodities fell 3.02% In 2021, four of the five sectors posted double-digit percentage gains while only precious metals moved lower: Energy was 54.13% higher Base metals gained 38.09% Soft commodities rallied 31.57% Grains moved 29.71% to the upside Animal proteins appreciated by 19.16% Precious metals fell 11.91% The overall performance was highly bullish as inflationary pressure, pandemic-inspired supply chain bottlenecks, and other factors pushed prices to multi-year, or in some cases, new all-time highs. An interesting observation between a commodity composite and the S&P 500 In a sign that inflation pushed all asset prices higher, the performance of the leading stock market index and commodities asset class was virtually the same. The long-term chart of the S&P 500, the most representative stock market index, reflects a 26.89% rise in 2021. The commodity composite that includes the leading precious and base metals, energy, soft, gains, and animal protein markets was 26.79% higher. The results are uncanny but reflect inflation’s impact on prices. Thirty-three winners and eight losers for the year Winners outnumbered losers by better than four-to-one in the commodities asset class that includes 41 different markets. Metals, foods, and energy commodities posted the most significant gains. Thirty-two of thirty-three markets that moved higher posted double-digit percentage gains, and thirteen markets were up over 50%. Of the eight markets that moved lower in 2021, five were precious metals. The sector may have lost 11.91% in 2021, but it moved 27.85% higher in 2020. Gold reached a new all-time high in 2020 and palladium in 2021, before the shiny metals corrected. Iron ore, the worst-performing commodity in 2021, was nearly 73% higher in 2020. Soybean meal rose by over 43% in 2020. Cocoa posted a marginal gain in 2020 and a market loss in 2021. Three reasons the bullish relay race will continue The ascent of commodity prices since the 2020 lows has been nothing short of a bullish relay race, with one market handing the bullish baton to the next. Three factors favor a continuation of bullish price action in 2022: Inflation : The Fed may be talking a hawkish game in early 2022, but action speaks a lot louder than words. At the December FOMC meeting, the committee forecast a 0.60% Fed Funds rate in 2022 and a 1.90% short-term rate in 2023. Even if inflationary pressures recede, real interest rates will remain in negative territory, which is fuel for higher inflation. As fiat currencies’ purchasing power declines, commodity prices are likely to continue to make higher lows and higher highs. The supply chain : Geopolitical issues and the pandemic’s legacy continue to create bottlenecks preventing commodities from moving from producers to consumers. Moreover, tensions between the US and Russia and the US and China develop roadblocks for commodities and distort prices, creating gluts in some regions and shortages in other areas. Policy : The shift in US energy policy to address climate change changed the fundamental equation for fossil fuels. OPEC and Russia now control world petroleum pricing. Increased regulations on US drilling and fracking will weigh on supplies. Moreover, addressing climate change dramatically increases the demand for battery metals and other commodities that are critical inputs for greener energy via alternative and renewable sources. Energy is an essential input for all commodity production. As energy prices rise, it puts upside pressure on all commodities, including grains, animal proteins, and metals. Inflation is a vicious cycle that is challenging to address once it gains speed. The US Fed and other world central banks are far behind the inflationary curve in early 2022. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines Bull markets can experience brutal corrections. In 2021, we saw copper drop from a new record high at nearly $4.90 per pound in May to below $4 in August. Lumber dropped from over $1700 per 1,000 board feet in May, a record high, to under $500 in August. Crude oil fell from its highest price since 2014 at $85.41 in October to below $63 in early December. Natural gas tanked from $6.466 per MMBtu in early October to below $4 in December and January. Many other commodities suffered equally ugly corrections. However, most found bottoms and have rallied from the higher lows than in 2020. I expect a continuation of higher lows and higher highs in the commodities asset class in 2022. The trend is always your best friend, and it remains higher in the raw materials asset class since 2020. 2021 was a bullish year in commodities, and I expect that trend to continue in 2022, but the road to higher prices is likely to be very bumpy. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPXEducation
by Andy_Hecht
1