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Cryptomania Is Back - Afghanistan Is BullishThis week is the beginning of September 2021, the twentieth anniversary of the horrendous terrorist 9/11 attacks on the United States. Soon after, the US began military operations in Afghanistan, a hotbed of harboring terrorists under the Taliban. It took twenty years, four US Presidents, trillions in military expenses, and many lives to achieve the goal of replacing the Taliban with the Taliban. On August 31, the US will officially leave Afghanistan, and it will not be the first superpower to learn a lesson in the mountainous, tribal country. The Russians paid a price in the 1980s when they left the nation after failing to achieve military objectives. Bitcoin and Ethereum rise above the midpoint of a very volatile move since April and May The market cap is back above $2 trillion Afghanistan is bullish for cryptos- Portable wealth that transcends borders and scrutiny The Taliban’s return shatters faith in foreign policy Weak governments weaken currencies - Expect the evolution of the crypto revolution to continue Tens of thousands of Afghans that assisted the US and NATO are now in a dangerous situation at the hands of the new leadership. While promising to be a “kinder and gentler” Taliban, the punishment for treason is likely to cost many lives. Moreover, the strict interpretation of Sharia Law will bring a return of brutal punishments and human rights violations. Scenes of the crowds of Afghans descending on Kabul’s airport in the final days of the US and NATO presence and the terrorist attack at the hands of ISIS-K were heartbreaking. While tens of thousands left their homeland to start over, others are stuck as the borders have sealed. Over history, we have seen many events where refugees fled their homes carrying little more than the shirts on their backs. The events over the past weeks strengthen the case for means of exchange that transcend borders and are easily portable. The case for cryptomania may have never been more compelling than right now. Bitcoin and Ethereum rise above the midpoint of a very volatile move since April and May Bitcoin reached its most recent all-time high on April 14, the day of the Coinbase (COIN) listing. Ethereum followed, making its high in May. Over the past years, cryptocurrencies reached new peaks on the back of supportive events. In late 2017, the leading cryptocurrencies rose above the $20,000 level for the first time when futures contracts began trading. Meanwhile, the parabolic moves that took the two leading cryptos to highs in April and May ran out of upside steam, and both more than halved in value, reaching lows in late June. China’s ban of crypto mining and trading and news that Elon Musk’s Tesla (TSLA) decided not to accept Bitcoin for its EVs because of the carbon footprint helped push crypto prices appreciably lower from the highs. As the weekly chart shows, Bitcoin dropped from $65,520 to a lot of $28,800. The midpoint of the move stands at $47,160. At the end of last week at $48,030, the leading crypto was above the mean and had probed above the $50,000 level on August 23. The market cap is back above $2 trillion The overall market cap of the cryptocurrency asset class peaked above the $2.4 trillion level when Bitcoin and Ethereum were on the highs in April and May. The correction sent it well below $1.4 billion. As of the end of last week, the asset class’s value was back on the upswing, over the $2 trillion level. According to CoinMarketCap, on Sunday, August 29, a total of 11,468 cryptocurrencies had a market cap of over $2.088 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum accounting for 61.8% of the value. Meanwhile, the other 38.2% was spread over 11,466 tokens. Only 94 tokens or 0.82% of the asset class have market caps above the $1 billion level, so there is plenty of room for growth. While two trillion is a huge number, considering Apple’s (AAPL) market cap was $2.,456 trillion on August 27, cryptocurrencies remain an emerging asset class that poses little systemic threat to the financial system. However, the potential for disruptions will rise with the value over the coming months and years. Afghanistan is bullish for cryptos- Portable wealth that transcends borders and scrutiny Capital flight occurs when assets or money flow out of a country because of an event of economic consequence or as the result of economic globalization. There are many historical examples of people fleeing their homeland because of a change in the political landscape. In 1930s Nazi Germany, many people fled to other countries with only the shirts on their backs. Some carried gold and diamonds as flight capital to assist in starting a new life in another home. The latest example comes from Afghanistan, where the sudden takeover by the repressive Taliban caused panic to get western citizens and Afghans that assisted in the two-decade failed war effort out of the country. As the Taliban took control of Kabul, banks shuttered, and it became impossible to withdraw cash. Those with the foresight to open cryptocurrency accounts could carry a flash drive or secure password out of the country, protecting their wealth and savings. Cryptocurrencies that sit in computer wallets in the cloud are portable wealth instruments that transcend borders and scrutiny and are likely to gain utility and acceptance in the aftermath of the situation in Afghanistan. The Taliban’s return shatters faith in foreign policy Meanwhile, the US and NATO defeat at the hands of the Taliban after a costly twenty-year war and the surrender of control, leaving many at risk, has divided allies. Criticism over the retreat logistics could change the US’s role as a world leader over the coming years. Afghanistan’s legacy could make countries think twice about the US commitment to world security. We could see the event trigger other political changes as some interpret US foreign policy as weakened. China has made no secret of its desire to “unify” Taiwan, which it considers a part of Chinese sovereign territory. Russia has designs on influence in Ukraine and other bordering former Soviet bloc countries. After a twenty-year war where the Taliban and terrorist organizations believe the US occupied their lands, the potential for attacks in the US and NATO countries will increase. Afghanistan is back in the hands of a government with a history of harboring terrorists that seek to strike outside its borders. Fiat currencies reflect the full faith and credit of the governments that issue legal tends. The dollar may still be the world’s reserve currency, but the standing along with all fiat currencies has taken a giant step backward. Monetary and fiscal stimulus have diluted the currency values, and the foreign policy missteps have taken the US down more than one notch in the world’s eyes. The bottom line is the faith has declined, and the credit is suspect, weighing on the dollar and all other fiat means of exchange. Cryptocurrencies are the embodiment of libertarian ideology, returning power to individuals. The decline in faith and credit only bolsters the case for the burgeoning asset class. Weak governments weaken currencies- Expect the evolution of the crypto revolution to continue An almost perfect bearish storm has descended on fiat currency markets. It is challenging to watch them depreciate because the foreign exchange arena is a mirage. We watch the value of one currency versus another; the dollar versus the euro, the euro versus the pound, the dollar versus the yen, and the many other cross-currency relationships. It is easy to identify when one currency weakens against another. However, what is not readily apparent is the decline of the entire fiat currency asset class. Inflationary pressures erode currency values. In 2019 and 2020, gold rose to a new record high in almost every currency on the planet. Over the past months, commodity prices have increased to multi-year, or in some cases, all-time highs. The US Fed calls the inflationary trend “transitory,” blaming it on supply chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-related reasons. Meanwhile, the Fed, other central banks, and governments planted the inflationary seeds with a tidal wave of liquidity, artificially low interest rates, and a tsunami of fiscal stimulus to stabilize the US and global economy because of COVID-19. The currency markets were already under pressure from a credit perspective. Afghanistan is another blow to the faith component of their value. Cryptocurrencies are in the right place at the right time, and timing is critical in markets. Expect the evolution of the cryptocurrency revolution to continue. The technical trends remain higher. Moreover, the underlying fundamentals on the political and economic landscapes favor the continued decline of fiat values, lifting the potential for gains in instruments that embrace fintech. Cryptomania is back, and the events in Afghanistan add another reason for the asset class to thrive. As the prices rise, expect the speculative fever to reach even higher levels over the coming months and years as market participants search for the next Bitcoin or Ethereum. Use the link below to sign up for early access to articles and more. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CME:BTC1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
3
Futures Levels | Look Ahead For The Week of Aug 22The VIX popped and dropped last week making the selling again a very short term event. The S&P ES1! is right back on trend after holding the 55EMA on the daily. Gold GC1! is in balance and crude CL1! continues to look like it wants lower prints. Economic Calendar Week Starting Sun, Aug 22 Monday, August 23 EU Manufacturing & Services PMI 2:15 AM CST US Manufacturing & Services PMI 8:45 AM CST Thursday, August 26 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium All Day US Preliminary GDP 7:30 AM CST Friday, August 27 US Core PCE Price Index 7:30 AM CST
NYMEX:CL1!
by RodCasilli
3
NQ1!, Trading the Market one Swing at a TimeThe market remains massively unchanged. The sell side made an attempt to go lower but the buy side had entered aggressively at the 61.8% extension of the most recent swing, a confluence with 50 DMA, and pushed back. A strong rejection suggests higher prices to come. The monthly R1 retest is not ruled out. I've been mentioned that level in the previous posts. The buyers success is easy to gauge through Fib levels. Holding 23.6% put them on the path to a new all time high. Breaching it would lead to a retest of the 61.8% and potentially monthly S1. I continue to emphasize that the market is very technical. This is the result of the Algos being involved more and more in the trading. Without hard "stop and turn" they move the price from a level to level. It makes sense to trade one swing at a time. Applying Fibs and watching the reaction on a smaller timeframe is a proven strategy. It is also very mechanical and objective helping to overcome the overthinking syndrome. The Fib levels are more accurate for the most recent swing. 08/21/2021
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
ALPHAUSDT forming falling wedge, watch the dip for best entry!after the price breakdown it's consolidation block on 0.95 price level, ALPHA start to form falling wedge, there are 2 possible scenario : 1. it's continue to complete the falling wedge pattern and will blast out (cause by the time it will be on the bullish divergence area). 2. it's hodling up on the consolidation box and start rising up, but if this scenario happen i dont think it have enough buy pressure to reverse the trend. keep wait and see for the best possible entry cause at the end the market will tell. safe trading and have a continouse profit !
by hajinaim18i
Day Trading ES with Simplicity! Initial Balance VWAP and LevelsHey everyone I thought I can share with you what I see working intraday trading the Futures markets. One size definitely does not fit all. Beware of people that tell you their way or the highway! This may resonate with some traders and not with other traders. Getting really good at identifying the Initial Balance, VWAP and Daily Weekly Monthly Levels for areas of Supply and Demand, (where macro traders sit) you can get a great edge over time with your trading and build a ton of confidence. Check it out for yourself. I also use order flow to actual enter and manage my trade ideas but that is for another topic. Everyone take care out there.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by New_Wave_Trading
2
Gold Futures 15 min Gold futures climbed Monday for a second straight session, settling at their highest in over a week. "Disappointing economic data out of China and a lacklustre U.S. Empire manufacturing survey for August, has seen U.S. 10-year yields slip back further after their sharp fall on Friday," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. That helped push gold prices higher "on concerns over a weaker growth outlook as we head into the autumn." December gold GCZ21, +0.61% climbed $11.60, or nearly 0.7%, to settle at $1,789.80 an ounce. Prices for the most-active contract ended the session at the highest since Aug. 5, FactSet data show.
COMEX:GC1!
by Anasshnada
The CPI Fantasy And Commodity PricesRodney Dangerfield was one of my all-time favorite comedians. He was a master at the one-liner, and while his catchphrase was “I don’t get no respect,” he got plenty. Rodney passed in 2004, but his legacy lives on in films. His role as Thornton Melon in the 1986 comedy classic Back to School continues to have a cult following. As he sat in an economics class, the professor created a theoretical company that sold widgets, the favorite product of academics. The lesson included funding the company and developing a marketing strategy for the widgets. Rodney’s character, already a wealthy businessman, attempted to point out the realities of starting a business, but the professor objected. Rodney then glibly asked the economist if his factory was in “fantasy land.” While the film was a fictional comedy, there is a fine line between fiction and nonfiction. The US Federal Reserve continues to call rising inflationary pressures “transitory.” Long ago, the economists massaged the consumer price data to extract a core that excludes food and energy prices called “core CPI.” Thornton Melon would call the core data “fantasy land” as food and energy are the critical factors that take a bite out of consumers’ budgets. Another significant increase in the inflation barometer Core CPI is fantasy land Look at the evidence- It costs more to power our lives and fuel our bodies Transitory in Fed Speak and the literal definition is not the same The trend is always your friend- Economists are behind the curve Another significant increase in the inflation barometer In June and July, the previous month’s consumer price index data was off the charts, indicating rising inflation. This month, the July CPI reading rose 5.4%, another sky-high level. While the number was in line with the market’s expectations, core CPI, excluding food and energy, was up 0.3% compared to the forecast level at 0.4%. The market interpreted the core number as less inflationary as it was below the expected reading. Core CPI is fantasy land Economists are social scientists, making their projections and interpretations highly subjective. They argue that core CPI better reflects inflationary pressures because food and energy prices can be highly volatile. Excluding them from the inflation barometer smooths the data. In statistics, the science of data, hedonic regression is the application of regression analysis to estimate the impact of various factors on the price of demand for a good. Hedonics is commonly used in real estate pricing as a quality adjustment for price indices. When it comes to inflation, excluding food and energy from the CPI is similar. The problem with core CPI is that food and energy make up a significant part of budgets. Rising prices for the products that fuel our lives and provide nutrition for our bodies is taking an ever-increasing bite out of paychecks is a reality, while eliminating them distorts the actual cost of living for the majority of people. Economists massage data. The US Federal Reserve relies on statistics in its monetary policy decision-making process. Thornton Melon would say that core CPI only exists in “fantasy land.” Look at the evidence- It costs more to power our lives and fuel our bodies Anyone that fills their car with gasoline, heats or cools their homes, or eats, will tell you that prices are a lot higher in August 2021 than they were in August 2020. Futures prices are real-time objective data as they reflect where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent environment. The evidence pointing to the reality of rising inflation from the August 2020 high to the August 13, 2021 closing level on the nearby futures contracts is clear: Nearby NYMEX crude oil prices increased from $43.78 to $68.44 per barrel, an increase of 56.3%. Gasoline moved from $1.4395 to $2.2626 per gallon or 57.2%. Heating oil and distillate prices rose from $1.3054 to $2.0779 per gallon, a 59.2% rise. Natural gas appreciated from $2.743 to $3.861 per MMBtu or 40.8%. Corn rose from $3.53 to $5.6825 per bushel or 61.0%. Soybeans rallied from $9.67 to $13.73 per bushel or 42.0%. CBOT wheat increased from $5.5175 to $7.6225 per bushel or 38.2%. Coffee rose from $1.3080 to $1.8275 per pound or 39.7%. Sugar moved from 13.28 cents to 19.95 cents per pound or 50.2%. Live cattle appreciated from $1.08225 to $1.28125 per pound or 18.4%. Lean hogs are up from 56.70 cents to 86.525 per pound or 52.6% over the period. The substantial increases in food and energy commodities paint a very inflationary picture. Moreover, the price rises reflect wholesale levels. Retail prices have risen far more over the past year. Yesterday, I paid over $4.20 per gallon for gasoline in Las Vegas, double the price last year. Food and energy prices are the tip of an inflationary iceberg. Education, health care, and housing costs are soaring. All raw material prices have moved appreciably higher. Transitory in Fed Speak and the literal definition is not the same In reality, prices are soaring in the Fed’s “fantasy land,” the core CPI data does not look all that bad as they only rose 0.3% in August. However, our food and energy bills went up a hell of a lot more last month. Over the past months, the Fed blamed rising inflationary pressures on lumber, new and used car prices, and other “transitory” factors created by bottlenecks in supply chains and other pandemic-related factors. The academic ivory tower where the economists sit is far above ground zero, where consumers shop each day. The definition of “transitory” is not permanent. Adjectives are temporary, transient, brief, short, short-lived, fleeting, and passing. “Transitory,” in a literal sense, requires an end date. So far, the Fed has not provided that data to the market. When asked about the period the central bank measures its 2% average inflation target, Chairman Powell replied it is “discretionary” or available for use at the user’s discretion. Transitory and discretionary is Fed-speak for leave it to us. They are non-answers to critical questions about the Fed’s interpretation and policy stance. Transitory reflects the central bank’s hopes and wishes, while discretionary tells us they will figure it all out someday. The trend is always your friend- Economists are behind the curve The bottom line is that the most objective measures of inflation are the wholesale futures prices and the retail costs of living. Food and energy prices are only a microcosm of rising prices across all asset classes. Money’s purchasing power is eroding because of the tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus. Even if the Fed bites the bullet and addresses rising inflation, the government continues to spend without abandon. A $3.5 trillion budget initiative before the US Congress with an infrastructure rebuilding package only increases the debt level. The Fed is living in “fantasy land” as inflation continues to rise. In August 2020, gold made a new record high. In May 2021, lumber, copper, and palladium prices rose to all-time peaks. Grains and oilseeds rose to eight-year highs in 2021. In July, coffee futures rose to their highest price since 2014. Bull markets in the volatile commodities sector rarely move in a straight line. The ascent of prices has been nothing short of a bull market relay race, with one commodity handing the baton to the next. The most recent recipient was the sugar market, which rose to over 20 cents per pound last week, the highest price since 2017. Even if we use statistical methods to smooth the bullish price action, the underlying trends reveal that the Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy is far behind the inflationary curve. Inflation can be a challenging beast to tame. As it rises, the central bank’s refusal to acknowledge and address the economic condition will reward it with the lack of respect it deserves. We live in a stark reality created by policies that continue to erode money’s value. Rodney Dangerfield was a comedian. There is a fine line between comedy and tragedy. If the approach to monetary policy that hides behind massaged data were not so tragic, it would be funny. 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CBOT:ZC1!
by Andy_Hecht
NQ1!, Market is at an Inflection PointThe market finished the last week at an inflection level. The rising bottom, higher lows, is suggesting a potential breakout and a retest of the monthly R1 (15250 ish) level. That level may attract profit takers . Many are puzzled by a relentless upside move. Even smaller advances but still the more important part is no selling. My personal view is only technical. As a day trader with 1000s hours of screen time who watches the moves days in and days out on a tick level. Market is very technical and driven by machines(Algos) in auto-pilot mode most of the time. Their masters don't see a reason to override that behavior at the moment. Potential scenarios for the upcoming week: - A breakout and a retest of the monthly R1 and above - A breakout and return back into the consolidation - a fake out. That may lead to a retest of monthly pivot and even monthly S1. - Horizontal development - continued consolidation within the narrow range. This type of action would build even more energy for a strong move up or down. 08/15/2021 50 year anniversary of US dollar/gold divorce.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
2