Futurestrading
Four Factors Driving Gold Prices Relative to Silver2600 years ago, the Anatolian Kingdom of Lydia minted the world’s first gold and silver coins. In doing so, the Lydian King Alyattes and his successor Croesus introduced the world’s first exchange rate: the gold-silver cross. Like any cross rate, the amount of silver that can be purchased with an ounce of gold is driven by both demand and supply-side factors, and the cross rate is anything other than stable. Sadly, we don’t have the time series of the gold-silver ratio dating back to ancient times, but we do have data going back to the launch of gold futures on December 31, 1974. Since the mid-1970s, one ounce of gold bought anywhere from 17 ounces to as many as 123 ounces of silver (Figure 1).
Figure 1: The amount of silver an ounce of gold can buy has been highly variable
In addition to the impact of monetary policy, which we have covered here, the gold-silver ratio appears to be governed by four other factors:
Relative volatility and the silver beta
Fabrication demand and technological change
Gold’s use as a monetary asset
Supply-side dynamics
Relative volatility and beta
To borrow an expression from the equity markets, silver is the high-beta version of gold. First, silver and gold prices usually have a strong positive correlation. Since 2004 the one-year rolling correlation of their daily price moves has hovered around +0.8 (Figure 2). Second, silver is more volatile than gold. As such, when gold prices move up, silver tends to move up more, thereby lowering the gold-silver price ratio. By contrast, during bear markets, the gold-silver ratio tends to rise.
Figure 2: The correlation of gold and silver price changes has hugged +0.8 since 2004.
For example, when gold and silver prices peaked in September 2011, one ounce of gold bought fewer than 32 ounces of silver (Figure 3). In the ensuing bear market, the ratio rose to as high as 124 ounces of silver per ounce of gold. The ratio snapped back to 64 in 2020 as gold and silver rallied early in the pandemic. In 2024, as both metals have rallied, silver has outperformed, rising 23% in the first five months of the year compared to 12% for the yellow metal.
Figure 3: Positive correlation plus much higher volatility give silver a high beta to gold
Fabrication Demand and the Impact of Technological Change
What is curious is that while gold and silver have rallied thus far in 2024, gold broke to new record highs of nearly $2,500 per ounce whereas silver prices remain 40% below their twin 1980 and 2011 peaks despite having outperformed gold since 2020 (Figure 4). The reason may lie in technological advances.
Figure 4: Gold has hit records in 2024 while silver is still 40% below its 1980 and 2011 record highs
Even before the Lydians minted the first gold and silver coins around 600 BCE, both metals had been used to make jewellery: silver since around 2500 BCE and gold since 4500 BCE. Some things don’t change. Even today, the primary use of both metals is to make jewellery. Yet, thus far this century, silver has been buffeted by two sets of technological developments: the digital revolution and the energy transition. Both have impacted the relative gold-silver ratio.
In 1999, photography used 267.7 million troy ounces of silver which accounted for 36.6% of that year’s total silver supply. By 2023 photography used only 23.2 million ounces of silver or about 2.3% of 2023’s total supply due to the rise of digital photography. Meanwhile, silver’s use in electronics and batteries grew from 90 million ounces to 227.4 million ounces or from 12.3% to 22.7% of silver’s total annual supply, partially offsetting the decline in traditional photography, which may partially explain why silver has struggled to hit new highs in recent years even as gold has set records.
The good news for silver, however, is that it is finding new use in the energy transition. Over the past few years silver has seen strong growth coming from solar panels, which accounted for 20% of 2023 silver demand, up from essentially nothing in 1999 (Figure 5). Solar panels may explain in part why silver has recovered relative to gold since 2020.
Figure 5: Battery and solar panel demand have grown as photography demand has shrunk
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By contrast, gold fabrication demand has shown itself to be immune from recent technological developments and is still overwhelmingly dominated by jewellery demand, with electronics, dental and other uses absorbing just 17% of annual gold mining supply (Figure 6). The differences in silver and gold fabrication demand underscores that gold is considered the purer of the two precious metals.
Figure 6: Gold fabrication demand has remained little changed
Gold and global monetary policy
Indeed, central banks around the world treat gold as money while they largely ignore silver (Figure 7). They hold a combined 36,700 metric tons of gold, the equivalent of 1.2 billion troy ounces or 13 years of global mining output. Moreover, central banks have been net buyers of gold every year since the global financial crisis.
Figure 7: Central banks have been net buyers of gold since the global financial crisis
Central bank buying of gold since 2009 contrasts sharply with their tendency to be net sellers from 1982 to 2007. Central banks’ accumulation of gold suggests that they want a hard asset to complement their foreign exchange reserves of dollars, euros, yen and other fiat currencies, a view that appears to have been reinforced by on-and-off quantitative easing since 2009 and increased use of financial sanctions. Central bank buying impacts gold prices directly, but only boosts silver prices indirectly via the gold market.
The supply side of the equation
Central bank gold buying reduces the amount of gold available to the public. Over the past decade, central bank buying has removed the equivalent of 8%-20% of new mining supply from the gold market each year (Figure 8) which may also explain why the gold-silver ratio rose significantly from 2011 to 2020 and why, even today, it remains at 2x its 2011 level.
Figure 8: Net of central bank buying, gold supply has stagnated since 2003
Total gold supply net of official purchases has stagnated since 2003. Meanwhile, silver mining supply peaked in 2016 and gold mining supply peaked the next year (Figure 9). The fact that new supply is arriving on the market more slowly than in the past may be bullish for both gold and silver.
Figure 9: Gold and silver respond negative to changes in each other’s mining supply.
Our econometric analysis shows that gold and silver prices are negatively correlated with changes to one another’s mining supply. A 1% decrease in gold mining supply, on balance, boosted gold prices by 1.9% and silver by 3.0% from 1974 to 2023. A 1% decease in silver mining supply boosted the prices of the metals by 1.3%-1.6% (Figure 10). Secondary supply appears to respond to price rather than drive it. Higher prices incentivize more recycling, but recycled metal doesn’t appear to depress prices as it doesn’t bring any new metal onto the market.
Figure 10: Secondary supply responds to price rather than drives it
What connects the two markets is jewellery. Because gold is 70x as costlier than silver, when prices rise, demand for gold jewellery falls while silver’s jewellery demand is relatively unresponsive to price because it costs much less. Gold and silver can be seen as a sort of binary star system where the two stars orbit a common center of gravity or barycenter. Gold is the larger, more stable and more influential of the two, but it is by no means immune from silver’s pull.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Options Blueprint Series: Swap Strategies for High VolatilityIntroduction
CME Group Gold Futures have always been a cornerstone in the commodities market, offering investors and traders a way to hedge against economic uncertainties and inflation. With the current market environment exhibiting heightened volatility, traders are looking for strategies to capitalize on these fluctuations. One such strategy is the Straddle Swap, which is particularly effective in high volatility scenarios.
By utilizing the Straddle Swap strategy on Gold Futures, traders can potentially benefit from price swings driven by news events, economic data releases, and other market-moving occurrences.
Strategy Explanation
The Straddle Swap strategy is designed to capitalize on high volatility by leveraging options with different expirations. Here’s a detailed breakdown of how this strategy works:
Components of the Straddle Swap:
1. Buy one call option (longer expiration)
This long call option benefits from upward price movements in Gold Futures.
2. Sell one call option (shorter expiration)
This short call option generates premium income, which offsets the cost of the long call option. As it has a shorter expiration, it benefits from faster time decay.
3. Buy one put option (longer expiration)
This long put option benefits from downward price movements in Gold Futures.
4. Sell one put option (shorter expiration)
This short put option generates premium income, which offsets the cost of the long put option. It also benefits from faster time decay due to its shorter expiration.
Rationale for Different Expirations:
Longer Expirations: The options with more days to expiration provide a longer timeframe to capture significant price movements, whether upward or downward.
Shorter Expirations: The options with less days to expiration decay more quickly, providing premium income that reduces the overall cost of the strategy. This helps mitigate the effects of time decay on the longer-dated options.
Market Analysis Using TradingView Charts:
To effectively implement the Straddle Swap strategy, it’s crucial to analyze the current market conditions of Gold Futures using TradingView charts. This analysis will help identify optimal entry and exit points based on volatility and price trends.
The current price action of Gold Futures along with key volatility indicators. Recent data shows that the 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month Historical Volatilities have all been on the rise, confirming a high volatility scenario.
Application to Gold Futures
Let’s apply the Straddle Swap strategy to Gold Futures given the current market conditions.
Identifying Optimal Entry Points:
Call Options: Buy one call option with a 100-day expiration (Sep-25 2024) at a strike price of 2370 @ 64.5. Sell one call option with a 71-day expiration (Aug-27 2024) at the same strike price of 2370 @ 53.4.
Put Options: Buy one put option with a 100-day expiration (Sep-25 2024) at a strike price of 2350 @ 63.4. Sell one put option with a 71-day expiration (Aug-27 2024) at the same strike price of $2350 @ 52.5.
Target Prices:
Based on the relevant UFO support and resistance levels, set target prices for potential profit scenarios:
Upper side, target price: 2455.
For put options, target price: 2260.
Potential Profit and Loss Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Significant Upward Movement
If Gold Futures rise sharply above 2370 within 100 days, the long call option will generate a potentially substantial profit. The short call option will expire in 71 days, limiting potential losses.
Scenario 2: Significant Downward Movement
If Gold Futures fall sharply below 2350 within 100 days, the long put option will generate a potentially substantial profit. The short put option will expire in 71 days, limiting potential losses.
Scenario 3: Minimal Movement
If Gold Futures remain relatively stable, the premiums collected from the short options (71-day expiration) will offset some of the cost of the long options (100-day expiration), minimizing overall losses. Further options could be sold against the long 2350 call and long 2350 put once the shorter expiration options have expired.
Specific Action Plan:
1. Initiate the Straddle Swap Strategy:
Enter the positions as outlined above following your trading plan, ensuring to buy and sell the options at the desired strike prices and expirations.
2. Monitor Market Conditions:
Continuously monitor Gold Futures prices and volatility indicators.
Adjust or close the strategy if necessary based on significant market changes.
3. Manage Positions:
Use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses.
If the market moves favorably, consider exiting the positions at the target prices to lock in profits.
4. Reevaluate Periodically:
Periodically reevaluate the positions as the options approach their expiration dates.
Make any necessary adjustments to the strategy based on updated market conditions and volatility.
By following this type of trade plan, traders can effectively implement the Straddle Swap strategy, taking advantage of high volatility in Gold Futures while managing risk through careful monitoring and the use of stop-loss orders.
Risk Management
Effective risk management is crucial for success in options trading, particularly when employing strategies like the Straddle Swap. Here, we will discuss the importance of risk management, key techniques, and best practices to ensure that traders can mitigate potential losses and protect their capital.
Importance of Risk Management:
Minimizing Losses: Trading inherently involves risk. Effective risk management helps minimize potential losses, ensuring that a single adverse move does not significantly impact the trader’s overall portfolio.
Preserving Capital: By managing risk, traders can preserve their capital, allowing them to stay in the market longer and capitalize on future opportunities.
Enhancing Profitability: Proper risk management allows traders to optimize their strategies, potentially increasing profitability by avoiding unnecessary losses.
Key Risk Management Techniques:
1. Stop-Loss Orders:
Implementing stop-loss orders helps limit potential losses by automatically closing a position if the market moves against it.
For the Straddle Swap strategy, set stop-loss orders for the long call and put options to exit positions if prices reach predetermined levels where losses would exceed the desired trade risk set by the trader.
2. Hedging:
Use hedging techniques to protect positions from adverse market movements. This can involve purchasing protective options or futures contracts.
Hedging provides an additional layer of security, ensuring that losses in one position are offset by gains in another.
3. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure:
Ensure that all positions have defined risk parameters. Avoid strategies that can result in unlimited losses.
The Straddle Swap strategy inherently has limited risk due to the offsetting nature of the long and short options.
4. Precision in Entries and Exits:
Timing is crucial in options trading. Ensure precise entry and exit points to maximize potential gains and minimize losses.
Use technical analysis key price levels such as UFO support and resistance prices, and volatility indicators to identify optimal entry and exit points.
5. Regular Monitoring and Adjustment:
Continuously monitor market conditions and the performance of open positions.
Be prepared to adjust the strategy based on changing market dynamics, such as shifts in volatility or unexpected news events.
Additional Risk Management Practices:
Diversification: Spread risk across multiple positions and asset classes to reduce the impact of any single trade. Other liquid options markets could be WTI Crude Oil Futures; Agricultural products such as Wheat Futures, Corn Futures, or Soybean Futures; Index Futures such as the E-mini S&P 500 Futures; and even Bond and Treasury Futures such as the 10-Year Note or the 30-Year Bond Futures.
Position Sizing: Carefully determine the size of each position based on the trader’s overall portfolio and risk tolerance.
Education and Research: Stay informed about market conditions, economic indicators, and trading strategies to make well-informed decisions.
By incorporating these risk management techniques, traders can effectively navigate the complexities of options trading and protect their investments. Ensuring more precision with entries and exits, using stop-loss orders, and implementing hedging strategies are essential practices that contribute to long-term trading success.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
INJ we've probably seen the bottomWe are currently looking at futures trade with members on certain coins, as well as dca zones. INJ has covered the weekly and monthly levels behind it at the price of $24. We waited for the news to see how buyers would react. Now that we have confirmation, we get the courage to go long on this coin.
In this case, INJ must hold $28 until the 200 DMA is at $31. If in this case we see a consolidation and not a big sale, my advice is to go long this coin at the bottom of that consolidation.
For example, catch up to $27 and put a stop loss below just in case
TFEX S50 FuturesTFEX S50 Futures
All Trend is Down in Primary, Secondary and Minor
Strategy 1: Wait for the price to rise to the resistance level (Supply Zone, POC of Volume and Regression Trend) then open Short Position.
Strategy 2: Divide Open Short Position and cut the losses short with Minor Trend
Target at Range Volatile 1 Month and 3 Month Low around 800 -790 point as last opinion.
#Heromoto 4th time tested 4950, above 4955 fatega kya?Heromoto since Feb'24 4th time has tested the fib resistance of 4954.A day close above 4954 can take this stock towards 1) 510 2)5177 3)5329 4)5473, below 4632 will be exit for me. Since my indicator is also not giving any negative signs, I have high hopes from this setup. Only thing is weakness in overall market can affect it. Lets see
XAU/USD Swing TrendXAU/USD Swing Trend
- Primary : Down Trend
- Secondary : Down Trend
- Minor : Down Trend
I think now It may be at the end of leg C of 4. and Finished 13 day of Down Trend Already.
However, Trade with the trend, when my Minor Trend looked up, I then waited for the price to adjust down to the EMA line and to the +1 SD line as well.
Therefore, the Buy Position has been opened. The target is to make a profit in the area of 2400, which is the Supply Zone. And place SL when the price breaks the POC of Volume below.
Options Blueprint Series: Secure Interest Rates with Box SpreadsIntroduction
The E-mini S&P 500 Futures is a popular and widely traded derivative product. These futures are used by traders and investors to hedge their portfolios, gain market exposure, and manage risk.
The Options Box Strategy is an advanced options trading technique that involves creating a synthetic long position and a synthetic short position simultaneously. This strategy is designed to lock in interest rates and profit from price discrepancies, essentially securing a risk-free return through arbitrage. By using Box Spreads, traders can secure interest rates and achieve a potential arbitrage opportunity in a controlled and predictable manner.
An interesting application of the Box Spread strategy is using unutilized capital in a trading account. Traders can earn a risk-free return on idle cash by deploying it in Box Spreads. This approach maximizes the utility of available capital, providing an additional revenue stream without increasing market risk exposure, thus enhancing overall portfolio performance.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures Contract Specifications:
Contract Size: $50 times the S&P 500 Index
Minimum Tick Size: 0.25 index points, equal to $12.50 per contract
Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours a day, five days a week
Margin Requirement: $11,800 at the time of publishing this article
Micro E-minis: 10 times smaller than the E-minis
Understanding Box Spreads
A Box Spread is a sophisticated options strategy that involves simultaneously entering a long call and short put at one strike price and a long put and short call at another strike price.
Components of a Box Spread:
Long Call: Buying a call option at a specific strike price.
Short Put: Selling a put option at the same strike price as the long call.
Long Put: Buying a put option at a different strike price.
Short Call: Selling a call option at the same strike price as the long put.
How Box Spreads Secure Interest Rates: Box Spreads are designed to exploit mispricings between the synthetic long and short positions. By locking in these positions, traders can secure interest rates as the net result of the Box Spread should theoretically yield a risk-free return. This strategy is particularly useful in stable market conditions where interest rate fluctuations can impact the profitability of other trading strategies.
Advantages of Using Box Spreads:
Arbitrage Opportunities: Box Spreads allow traders to capitalize on discrepancies in the pricing of options, securing a risk-free profit.
Predictable Returns: The strategy locks in a fixed rate of return, providing certainty and stability.
Risk Management: By simultaneously holding synthetic long and short positions, the risk is minimized, making it an effective strategy for conservative traders.
Applying Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures
To apply the Box Spread strategy on E-mini S&P 500 Futures, follow the following step-by-step approach.
Step-by-Step:
1. Identify Strike Prices:
Choose two strike prices for the options. For instance, select a lower strike price (LK) and a higher strike price (HK).
2. Enter Long Call and Short Put:
Buy a call option at the lower strike price (K1).
Sell a put option at the same lower strike price (K1).
3. Enter Long Put and Short Call:
Buy a put option at the higher strike price (K2).
Sell a call option at the same higher strike price (K2).
Potential Outcomes and Rate Security: The Box Spread locks in a risk-free return by exploiting price discrepancies. The profit is determined by the difference between the strike prices minus the net premium paid. In stable market conditions, this strategy provides a predictable and secure return, effectively locking in interest rates.
Advantages of Applying Box Spreads:
Risk-Free Arbitrage: The primary benefit is securing a risk-free profit through arbitrage.
Predictable Returns: Provides a fixed return, beneficial for conservative traders.
Minimal Risk: By holding both synthetic long and short positions, market risk is mitigated.
Considerations:
Ensure precise execution to avoid slippage and maximize the arbitrage opportunity.
Account for transaction costs, as they can impact the overall profitability.
Monitor market conditions to ensure the strategy remains effective.
Example Trade Setup:
Let's consider a practical example of setting up a Box Spread on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures while its current trading price is 5,531. We'll use the following strike prices:
Lower Strike Price (K1): 5450
Higher Strike Price (K2): 5650
Transactions:
Sell Call at 5650: Premium = 240.01
Buy Put at 5650: Premium = 352.85
Sell Put at 5450: Premium = 270.59
Buy Call at 5450: Premium = 347.39
Note: We are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts.
Net Premium Calculation:
Net premium paid = 347.39 - 240.01 + 352.85 - 270.59 = 189.64
Potential Profit Calculation:
Profit = (Higher Strike Price - Lower Strike Price) - Net Premium Paid
Profit = 5650 – 5450 – 189.64 = 10.36 points = $518 ($50 per point)
Rate Of Return (ROR) Calculation:
Margin Requirement = (Higher Strike Price - Lower Strike Price) × Contract Multiplier = 200 x 50 = $10,000
ROR = 518 / 10000 = 5.18%
Annualized ROR = 518 / 10000 x 365.25 / 383 = 4.94% (based on the screenshots, expiration will take place in 383.03 days while a year is made of 365.25 days)
Interesting Application: Utilizing Box Spreads with Unutilized Capital
An intriguing application of the Box Spread strategy is the use of unutilized capital in a trading account. Traders often have idle cash in their accounts that isn't actively engaged in trading. By deploying this capital in Box Spreads, traders can earn a risk-free return on otherwise dormant funds. This approach not only maximizes the utility of available capital but also provides an additional revenue stream without increasing market risk exposure. Utilizing Box Spreads in this manner can enhance overall portfolio performance, making efficient use of all available resources.
Importance of Risk Management
Risk management is a critical aspect of any trading strategy, including the implementation of Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures. Effective risk management ensures that traders can mitigate potential losses and protect their capital, leading to more consistent and sustainable trading performance.
Conclusion
Implementing the Options Box Strategy on E-mini S&P 500 Futures may allow traders to secure interest rates and potentially achieve risk-free arbitrage opportunities. By understanding the mechanics of Box Spreads and applying them effectively, traders can capitalize on price discrepancies in the options market to lock in predictable returns.
Key points to remember include:
E-mini S&P 500 Futures offer accessible and efficient trading opportunities for both hedging and speculative purposes.
Box Spreads combine synthetic long and short positions, providing a powerful tool for securing interest rates through arbitrage.
By following the outlined steps and leveraging classical technical indicators, traders can enhance their ability to set up and analyze Box Spreads, making the most of this advanced options strategy.
Utilizing Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures not only can secure interest rates but can also provide a structured and disciplined approach to trading, leading to more consistent and sustainable trading performance.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
As predictedPrice has delivered exactly as predicted weeks ago. Look for buys at the fvg or ideally the OTE.
S&P 500 (US500):🔴Bearish or bullish...?!🔴By examining the weekly and 4-hour charts, we can determine the price was heavily pushed down after creating the all-time high.
I am not bearish for the long-term on the S&P500, but for now, I think the price can have a bearish reaction to the bearish breaker block and move down at least till the previous week's low, then we should study the price to find out the next move.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️27/05/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
Dow Jones (US30):🔴Is it bearish..?!🔴Hello trader
By examining Dow Jones on the weekly and 4-hour chart we can figure out the chart is bearish and there is sell-side liquidity that can be defined as targets for smart money.
In this chart, the price failed to create an all-time high and dropped, the price made the bearish breaker and respected it and shifted the market structure.
Now we can see the bearish order block with bearish FVG that makes an important resistance, If the price reaches this zone we can look for a sell position in a lower time frame.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️27/05/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
TFEX S50 : Swing TrendTFEX S50 : Swing Trend
Case Study : Entry short when the price moves up to the resistance level and makes a Reversal Pattern.
When the Minor Trend returns to Down Trend Bias, aligned with the Primary Trend, it is the entry point for a Short Position. So can take profit at the support Poc of Regression Trend Line.
HG Copper Futures LONGHG - copper demand is higher this year as the economy expands globally. On the 60 minute chart
price hit a high pivot on May 15th and pulled back in a standard Fib 0.5 fhsion. Price
has touched the upper boundary of that support three times and has now printed a wide range
green HA candle. I believe that this is a reversal pattern and will take a long trade here
targeting the pivot high mentioned. This is a 5% expectant profit amplified by the leverage
of a futures trade.I see this as a safe trade of a commodity that has a bullish bias overall.
I am also looking for some increased volume at this juncture to assure that some buying
momentum is coming into the market.
Nasdaq 100 - Futures Day Trading - 15min HypoYesterday we took the all-time high with a liquidity sweep creating a market structure shift on the 15min timeframe. Asia/London session is now in a range market. 8.30 Am we have Canadian CPI news. Careful for manipulation. I will be looking for clear indications and confirmation to trade in direction of the American market open. The overall value migration is up for long term investors, however with this temporary market structure shift model I will be looking for an intraday short when sweeping Asia/London highs.