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Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) – A Complete GuideWhat Are Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)? A Fair Value Gap (FVG) is a price imbalance on a chart that occurs when the market moves aggressively in one direction, leaving an area where price did not trade efficiently. These gaps are often created by institutional traders (banks, hedge funds, and large market participants) executing big orders. Key Characteristics of a FVG: ✅ Occurs when price moves impulsively, creating an imbalance ✅ Appears in a three-candle formation ✅ The gap forms between the wicks of the first and third candles How to Identify a FVG: 1️⃣ Look for a strong price move (bullish or bearish). 2️⃣ Find a three-candle sequence where the middle candle has a large body and a gap between the first and third candle wicks. 3️⃣ Mark the area between the first and third candle wicks—this is your Fair Value Gap. Example: Imagine price explodes upward with a big green candle, skipping multiple price levels without much resistance. This creates an inefficiency because price hasn’t traded fairly in that area, making it likely that price will revisit it later to fill the imbalance. Here you can see that price completely filled up that gap and moved higher. Same here: How to Use Fair Value Gaps in Trading FVGs can serve as key zones where price is likely to react. Here’s how you can use them to improve your trading: 1️⃣ Fair Value Gaps as Support & Resistance Bullish FVG (Support Zone): If price retraces into a bullish FVG (gap formed in an uptrend), it can act as support and push price higher. This is a good area to look for buying opportunities. Bearish FVG (Resistance Zone): If price retraces into a bearish FVG (gap formed in a downtrend), it can act as resistance and push price lower. This is a good area to look for selling opportunities. 2️⃣ Using FVGs for Trade Entries & Exits Price often revisits a Fair Value Gap before continuing its original trend. A trader can wait for price to fill the gap and then look for confirmations like candlestick patterns or volume spikes before entering a trade. Stop-loss placement: Put your stop-loss below/above the FVG zone to reduce risk. 3️⃣ Liquidity & Institutional Activity Institutional traders often target these inefficiencies to fill their orders. When price returns to an FVG, it may be because institutions are executing trades at those levels. Why Are Fair Value Gaps Useful? They act as magnets for price – Price tends to revisit these gaps before continuing its move. They provide high-probability trade setups – FVGs help traders find potential reversal or continuation zones. They improve risk management – You can use them for better stop-loss placement. They align with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) – Institutions often use these levels for liquidity. Tips & Tricks: How to Combine Fair Value Gaps with Other Strategies 1️⃣ FVG + Order Blocks = Strong Confirmation If a Fair Value Gap aligns with an Order Block, it becomes a powerful area of interest. This increases the chances of a successful trade. 2️⃣ FVG + Fibonacci Retracements If an FVG aligns with a key Fibonacci level (like 61.8% or 50%), the chances of a price reaction increase significantly. 3️⃣ FVG + RSI or Divergence If price revisits a FVG while RSI is overbought or oversold, it signals a high-probability reversal. 4️⃣ Higher Timeframe FVGs Are More Reliable FVGs on the 1-hour, 4-hour, or daily charts are more effective than those on smaller timeframes. 5️⃣ Monitor News Events If an FVG is formed due to a major news event (e.g., Fed announcement, CPI data, earnings report), be cautious, as price may act differently than expected. Final Thoughts Fair Value Gaps are a powerful tool that help traders identify key levels of liquidity and institutional price action. They work best when combined with other strategies like Order Blocks, Fibonacci, and RSI to increase accuracy. By understanding how and why price moves back into these gaps, traders can anticipate potential high-probability trade setups and trade alongside smart money. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment—I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈✨
KRAKEN:BTCUSDEducation
by TehThomas
31
EUR/USD - High-Probability Short Setup! Are we going lower?EUR/USD - This trade is based on a bearish retracement rejection from a key Fair Value Gap (FVG), targeting a strong confluence area where Fibonacci levels and volume profile data align. 🔹 Entry Criteria: Price has tapped into a Fair Value Gap (FVG) twice, showing signs of rejection. The green zone represents an imbalance where sellers previously stepped in, making it an ideal short entry area. Look for bearish confirmation, such as wicks, bearish engulfing candles, or lower timeframe breakdowns before executing the trade. 🔹 Target (Take Profit - TP): The primary target is the 0.618 - 0.65 Fibonacci retracement zone (Golden Pocket), a strong level where price often reverses. This level aligns with the Point of Control (POC) from the volume profile tool, adding further confluence. 🔹 Stop-Loss & Invalidation: Stop-loss should be placed above the last high near the FVG zone to protect against invalidation. If price closes above the FVG zone, the trade setup becomes invalid, as it would indicate bullish strength and a possible continuation higher. 🔹 Additional Considerations: Price is likely seeking sell-side liquidity below previous lows, supporting the downside move. Market conditions and potential fundamental catalysts (news events) should be monitored before entry. 📌 Summary: This trade idea involves shorting from a key imbalance zone (FVG), expecting price to fill the gap and move toward a high-probability support area at the Golden Pocket + POC confluence zone. However, if price closes above the FVG, the trade setup is invalidated, signaling a potential bullish continuation. 🚀 __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 🙌 and leave a comment—I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together!📈
Short
by TehThomas
4
Bitcoin's Next Big Move? Critical $103K Resistance Ahead!Bitcoin has broken out of its recent consolidation range after a classic liquidity sweep at the lows. As marked on the chart (red line), we saw a significant stop-loss hunt below the previous support level, triggering a cascade of liquidations before BTC swiftly rebounded. This move confirmed bullish intent, allowing Bitcoin to reclaim momentum and push back toward the critical psychological level of $100K. Now, all eyes are on the $103K resistance zone, which is a major confluence area for multiple reasons: 📌 Fair Value Gap (FVG) – This imbalance in price action suggests that liquidity is resting in this region, making it a key level for market reactions. 📌 Fibonacci Golden Pocket (0.618 - 0.65 retracement) – One of the strongest retracement levels in trading, often acting as a magnet for price action before a decisive move. 📌 Historical Resistance – This area has already been tested twice (marked as "First Hit" and "Second Hit" on the chart) and resulted in strong rejections both times. What’s Next for Bitcoin? 🔹 Bullish Scenario: If BTC can break through $103K with strong volume, we could see a continuation towards $105K - $107K, with a potential extension toward $110K in the mid-term. 🔹 Bearish Scenario: A rejection from this resistance could lead to another pullback, possibly back to the $96K support level or even lower before another attempt to push higher. Why This Level Matters: The liquidity structure here is key. Many traders will have short positions stacked at this resistance, and a breakout could trigger a short squeeze, fueling a rapid move higher. However, if sellers overpower buyers in this zone, BTC could struggle to sustain its gains and might need another accumulation phase before making a decisive breakout. Final Thoughts This is a critical moment for Bitcoin. Will the bulls break through $103K and continue the rally, or will this level act as a major roadblock once again? Watch this level closely, and let me know your thoughts in the comments!
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by TehThomas
EURUSD retracement? I'm watching OANDA:EURUSD today. My bias is bullish and would like to see it swipe some liquidity and reach some buy zones. There's also an imbalance in the Daily timeframe. However being a US holiday today, I don't expect a lot of movement. So I'm also considering the retracement down to those levels, considering its distance from them. Observing and waiting for liquidity to be taken first before taking any trades. Maybe preserving capital is the right trade today?
by CinnamonErreDe
ETH : The Suffering Ends Now !I’m back in an ETH position and honestly hoping this sideways grind ends soon. Yesterday’s Ethereum ETF announcement opened up a perfect opportunity to play the retest and the Fair Value Gap – and that’s exactly what I did. Looking at on-chain data, we’re seeing continuous buying from whales. They clearly know something. And let’s not forget Trump and his team, along with his close circle, are stacking Ethereum like crazy. I’m sticking to my belief that Trump will do whatever it takes to pump his bags higher. But if we lose this level, see you at $2,400.
Long
by stromm
2
A small BTC longI entered a long position on BTC at 96,003.8, buying at the bottom of a 1H/4H order block. The confluence between these timeframes suggests strong bullish potential, as price often reacts positively when multiple timeframe order blocks align. My Take Profit (TP) is set at 97,151.0, while my Stop Loss (SL) is at 95,452.0. Despite the bullish setup, I’m cautious because there’s a 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) sitting right above my order block. This FVG could act as short-term resistance, limiting upward momentum. Given this, I’ve opted for a conservative TP to secure profits without overexposing myself to potential reversals.
Long
by Alex-HKM
5
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 29/01/2024Last week was a slow one for the Judas Swing strategy, with only a single trade across our key currency pairs—GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD. But here’s the good part: that one trade was a winner, closing the week up 2% This is a perfect example of why sticking to your strategy matters. We didn’t force trades just because opportunities were scarce. Instead, we trusted our tested system and the data behind it. In trading, discipline is everything, short-term fluctuations don’t matter as much as the long-term edge. By staying patient and following the plan, we set ourselves up for consistent success. In this post, we’ll walk you through the entire process, from setup to outcome and share key insights from these trades By 8:25 EST, we were already at our desks, prepping for the session. As always, we marked out our key zones, patiently waiting for either the high or low to be swept to establish a directional bias. By 8:45 EST, price had already taken out the liquidity resting at the low of our zone—our cue to start looking for potential buying opportunities With our bias established, we don’t just jump into trades, we wait for our key conditions to be met: 1. Break of structure to the buy side 2. A Fair Value Gap (FVG) must be left behind 3. Price must retrace into the FVG Until all three conditions align, no trade is taken. Even if two out of three are met, we stay on the sidelines. Following this plan ensures we only take high-probability setups. By the close of the 9:35 EST candle, all the conditions on our entry checklist were met, confirming a valid trade setup. We executed the trade with a 1% risk on our account, aiming for a 2% return Entry: 0.62168 Stop Loss: 0.62058 Take Profit: 0.62368 Now, it’s all about letting the trade play out according to the plan After executing the trade, we saw minimal drawdown as price moved smoothly, printing higher highs (HHs) and higher lows (HLs), perfect for our buy position. A sharp drop suddenly sent price back to our entry point. But instead of pushing down further, price quickly rejected that level, leaving wicks behind before reversing back in our favor. This trade is a prime example of why we don’t move our stop loss to breakeven just because a trade is moving well. Through extensive backtesting, we've observed for this strategy that these temporary pullbacks happen often, and in most cases, the trade still plays out as expected. Of course, there are times when price fully reverses and hits our stop loss but that doesn't happen often. Our patience paid off as our 1% risk translated into a 2% return, proving once again that disciplined execution and sticking to the plan yield results.
by CleoFinance
BTC Fractal PredictionFacts: The orange oval shows the part of the chart I used to create the forecast. Yelllow green zones are demand FVGs and purple zones are supply. The green zone signifies the demand order block, and the zones are based on 9h TF. Fibs are based on long term levels (not drawn from renko values). *Note this is a Renko chart Opinion: If the prediction has any semblance to what will happen, it would be reasonable to suggest longs are accumulating down to maybe 88k without going too low where traders will then try to grab as much liquidity from 91-99k on the way up to sell after they push the price past ATH. A wick down to 88k, as low as even 84k could be expected here, and if the fear index continues dropping we might even see 80k being the target with a wick down to 76k. A bottom in the 70k range might result in an ATH target around 169k, while 141k would be what I think is the next top for a less extreme scenario, 123-125k being either the consolidation or retracement level for all cases. Next level after 141/169 would be the big 200k, where in most attempts at using this method of pattern prediction has shown it would very quickly retrace from. As time passes, confidence in the 73k level as final support is increasing quickly as VWAPS, ATR based supports and moving averages continue to meet and surpass that price level on longer and longer timeframes and lengths. It might require very specific circumstances along with a very coordinated selloff to cause the price to drop below 73. How the market reacts once we break our 91k support will be interesting to see as there are more new investors and crytpo derivatives this season than ever.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sadture
Two Daily Gaps attract market for pullbackAlthough S&P500 is within uptrend, recent days has left two clearly visible gaps behind. That means that it is highly possible that SPX will come back to cover those gaps in the near future, before it continue uptrend (if it will). Same picture at NDX chart with two 4H gaps. I take this idea to apply to all markets including crypto. While chances to resume higher timeframe uptrend are valid for Bitcoin, Stock Indices will most probably influence it's short term price action.
TVC:SPX
by WiseAnalyze
ENA LONG/SHORT Strategy on 4 Hour (and long-term TP's)For some short term plays: I always have limit orders placed at FVG's and ENA has just posted two big FVG's on the 4HR chart as it recovers from this weeks volatility. I'd be expecting these to be filled/touched at some point, with the 0.618 FIB also playing a role I think a reasonable buy would be at the ~1.0159 mark. If the price continues to rally to ~1.23 I may go short if OBV (yellow line is 14 EMA) indicates so. I have a limit order buy at this level but will need to confirm with OBV (I also have Stoch OBV, OBV RSI for confirmations not shown here). Why this may be not happen? A very strong project with great potential to reach new all time highs. Price could easily keep running based on its fundamentals alone. A long term perspective: I've got take profit targets at 1.73, 1.97, 2.67, 3.81 and 4.94 for my long term positions.
by Off-The-Chart-CTC
Trading EURUSD and NZDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 17/01/2024Last Friday was an exciting day trading the Judas Swing strategy! We were fortunate to spot two solid opportunities, one on EURUSD and the other on NZDUSD. Both trades presented similar setups, and once they ticked all the boxes on our trading checklist, we didn’t hesitate to execute. In this post, we’ll walk you through the entire process, from setup to outcome and share key insights from these trades. By 8:25 EST, we were at our trading desk, prepping for the session to kick off at 8:30 EST. During that brief wait, we marked our trading zones and patiently watched for liquidity resting at the highs or lows of the zones to be breached. It didn’t take long, NZDUSD breached its low within 20 minutes, while EURUSD followed suit just 40 minutes into the session. With the liquidity sweep at the lows complete, we quickly shifted our focus to spotting potential buying opportunities for the session ahead. Even though we had a bullish bias for the session, we never jump into trades blindly. Instead, we wait for confirmation—a break of structure to the upside, accompanied by the formation of a Fair Value Gap (FVG). A retrace into the FVG serves as our signal to enter the trade. On this occasion, both currency pairs we were monitoring met these criteria perfectly. All that remained was for price to retrace into the FVG, setting us up to execute the trade with confidence. Price retraced into the FVG on both EURUSD and NZDUSD, meeting all our entry requirements. We executed the trades risking 1% on each setup, putting a total of 2% on the line. Our target? A solid 4% return. The setup was clear, the risk was calculated, and we were ready to let the trades play out After executing the NZDUSD trade, it was pure momentum—zero drawdown as the trade went straight into profit without hesitation. The same was true for EURUSD, which also faced minimal to no drawdown and quickly hit our take-profit target. Both trades wrapped up in just 25 minutes, netting us a solid 4% return. These are the kinds of sniper entries traders dream of! But let’s be real, trading isn’t always this smooth. There will be times when you face deep drawdowns and even losses. The key is ensuring your strategy wins more often than it loses. And if your losses outweigh your wins, make sure your winners are big enough to cover those losses. Consistency and proper risk management are what keep traders in the game for the long haul
Education
by CleoFinance
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 15/01/2025Yesterday, we had an awesome trading session using the Judas swing strategy. We entered a trade on AUDUSD and secured a 2% gain! As is customary, at 8:25 AM EST, we commenced the day by reviewing the essential items on our Judas Swing strategy checklist, which comprises: - Setting the timezone to New York time - Confirming we're on the 5-minute timeframe - Marking the trading period from 00:00 - 08:30 - Identifying the high and low of the zone Once we’ve covered the basics on our checklist, the next step is to identify a sweep of liquidity on either side of the zones we’ve marked. For this trade, we observed a sweep of liquidity above the high of the zone, signaling a potential opportunity to focus on selling setups for this trading session. To avoid getting ahead of ourselves, we patiently wait for a break of structure to the sell side as additional confirmation of our sell bias. Notice how we didn’t rush into the trade, despite having a bias for the session. Instead, we chose to wait for the market to validate our bias. After some time, the break of structure to the sell side occurred, leaving behind a FVG, further supporting our analysis The next 5 minute candle retraced to fill the FVG left behind, completing all the requirements on our entry checklist. With our criteria met, we executed the trade, risking 1% of our trading account in pursuit of a 2% return After executing the trade, we encountered minimal drawdown as it quickly began moving in our intended direction. From that point, all that was left was to patiently wait for the trade to reach our objective and secure the 2% return Our patience paid off with this AUDUSD trade, as our take-profit target was hit after just 1 hour and 20 minutes in the trade. This reinforces the importance of sticking to your plan and trusting the process—discipline and patience are key to long-term trading success
by CleoFinance
Is ZEN Preparing for a Bounce? Key Levels to WatchZEN recently broke down from a 10-day descending triangle, signaling bearish continuation with strong selling volume. This triangle forms the B wave of an ABC corrective pattern, indicating further downside is likely before any potential reversal. Let’s dive into the technical details and key levels to watch. Key Observations and Levels: 1.) Descending Triangle Breakdown: The measured move target of the descending triangle lies at $18.7, aligning perfectly with multiple confluences: The 0.702 Fibonacci retracement from the recent lows. The previous trading range highs, adding historical support to this level. 2.) Fair Value Gap (FVG): Back in December, ZEN broke out of its previous trading range, leaving an unfilled FVG around $19.5, our previous high on December 7th, 2024. This gap represents a significant area where price may return before resuming its trend. 3.) Support Zone – $20 to $18.7: The $20 psychological level is a key point and aligns with our support trendline from previous lows. The Fibonacci negative 1 extension of the descending triangle also targets $18.7, further reinforcing this level as a significant support. 4.) Trade Setup: The $20–$18.7 zone presents a strong support area with multiple confluences, making it a favourable entry point for a long position. However, confirmation is essential! Watch for bullish candle patterns and volume signals before entering. Conclusion: ZEN’s breakdown from the descending triangle suggests further downside, but the $20–$18.7 zone offers a robust support area with several technical alignments: Fibonacci retracements, the descending triangle target, historical range highs and an unfilled FVG. This zone presents an attractive long opportunity, provided confirmation signals are present. Monitor the price action closely in this range to capitalise on a potential bounce. Happy trading everyone!
Long
by SiDec
UDSCAD Sell SetupPrice had broken the sideway movement support at 1.4335, and risen back to the H4 FVG area between 1.4406 - 1.4440, presenting an entry opportunity. ------------- Disclaimer The analysis and content provided here are intended solely for personal journal and educational purposes. This information does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Short
by Phoenix-Rise-Trade
Trading GBPUSD and NZDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 30-03/01/25The past week offered a subtle reminder that trading isn't always about pushing the buy or sell button. Sometimes, when market conditions are less predictable, it is advisable to sit back and concentrate on tape reading to allow market to reveal its intentions before engaging in trades. During the festive season and approaching the New Year, the market often exhibits erratic behaviour, making trading a bit difficult, and traders are often slaughtered under these conditions. Using the Judas Swing strategy, we scouted for trades during this period to evaluate how the strategy would perform under these conditions. On Monday, we did not find any trading opportunities on the four currency pairs we were monitoring. Fortunately the next day, we saw a potential trading setup forming on GBPUSD which caught our attention. We saw a sweep of liquidity on the sell side, signalling potential buying opportunities on GBPUSD. This followed a break of structure to the buy side, that price leg also left behind a fair value gap (FVG). With these conditions aligning, all we need is a retrace into the FVG to fulfil the entry requirements on our checklist. Twenty minutes later, we saw the retracement needed to enter the GBPUSD trade, triggered by the candle that closed within the FVG. We executed the trade with a 1% risk allocation from our trading account, aiming for a 2% return on this setup. This trade barely showed any profit before hitting our stop loss within twenty five minutes, leaving us down by 1% for the day. Did losing that amount bother us? Not at all. We were fully comfortable with the risk we had allocated for the trade. Wednesday didn’t present any trading opportunities, but on Thursday, we identified a promising setup on AUDUSD that we were eager to capitalize on. Once the price retraced into the FVG and all the requirements on our checklist were met, we executed the trade, risking 1% of our trading account with the goal of achieving a 2% return The AUDUSD trade came within a few pips of hitting our take profit (TP) before reversing and going the other way. From our backtest data, we’ve observed that taking partial profits negatively impacts the strategy’s overall performance over time. Instead, allowing trades to play out fully either hitting the stop loss or the take profit has consistently delivered better results in the long run. While reviewing our data, we also noted that it’s not uncommon for trades to come very close to hitting TP, only to reverse and hit the stop loss. Although this doesn’t happen often, it’s a pattern we’ve seen before during our backtesting sessions, so it wasn’t surprising when it occurred here. Taking a loss like this can be emotionally taxing, especially if you risked more than you could afford to lose or weren’t prepared for such scenarios due to a lack of backtesting. That’s why we can’t stress enough the importance of backtesting—it allows you to observe various scenarios in action and equips you to handle these situations more effectively. Friday didn’t present any trading opportunities, leaving us down 2% on our trading account for the week. However, we’re okay with this outcome, knowing that one good trade can offset those losses.
Education
by CleoFinance
Update: EUR/USD Downward Movement to Continue?In my previous analysis, I highlighted the potential for bearish continuation, targeting the sell-side liquidity (SSL) below. As anticipated, the price respected the retracement into the Daily FVG and Fibonacci zones, sweeping liquidity by taking out the highs. This reaction confirmed bearish intent. On the lower timeframes, a clear entry opportunity emerged, and the pair has since moved lower, heading toward the anticipated SSL target. The bearish structure remains intact, with the next key area of interest around the liquidity pool below. This setup took a week to deliver an entry, but the rewards were definitely worth the wait! This goes to show that patience is essential in trading—there’s absolutely no need to trade every day to succeed. Trade safe!
Short
by jp7fx
1
Possible 97,800 jumpDaily: Downtrend 4H: Downtrend to turn Uptrend 1H: Uptrend 30M: Uptrend to turn downtrend for entry. Two decent big FAV gaps as you can see on screen, and 4 Liquidity spots for price to draw to. I think we will see the bitcoin to go up before it can follow the daily downtrend, because it needs to fill in those FVG and claim the liquidity spots. Entry: 93,0xx when price drops into an premium buy at the FAV on the lower side, entry when seeing MACD signal line getting crossed at the 3Min. Take Profit: 1: 94,800 2: 95,800 3: 96,900 4: 97,800.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by LucasIMH
1
Week of Oct 24, 2022 - Price Action StudyDownload the Chart and Use the Groups of Drawings to Navigate the HTF Bias(Trend) and Context (PD Arrays), Narrative (Probable PD Array to be reached for next), Entries (1H/15m), and Risk (CBDR and levels in chart) With the period starting mid-week Oct 24, 2022 - Thursday Journal Define Weekly Range Profile with IPDA True Day Markers Done - IPDA True Day Lines Out of IPDA 60 Day Range, Price is in the bottom of a Discount range Guess for Weekly Range Profile - Classic Tue Low of Week Reason: Tues had a lower close, my hypothesis is that Price will make the high of the week aligned with the short term weekly high from Sep 12, 2022 Therefore if Price has not reached the target Premium PD Array by the London session, I aim to buy Orderblocks into the Sep 12 Weekly High before turning Bearish (FULL CONTEXT HYPOTHESIS) On 1H Chart, you can frame the target areas you want to trade from EOD Wednesday - End of NY PM Session ends the day on a higher high and the high of the week so far Thu Asian Session - Consolidation above the 1H OB from Oct 26th The 1H OB has been wicked twice in previous NY AM Session Price has created EQ Candle lows across Wed NY PM Session and Asian Session Thu London Session - Price moves aggressively into the 1H OB I know now that I am going to drop down to the 15m timeframe to look to execute an entry Huge Detail: WE ARE LOOKING FOR A LTF PD ARRAY TO FORM INSIDE THE 1H ORDERBLOCK TO VALIDATE ENTRY London Session continues to move down into the 1H OB Thu London Session EOD (5m/15m) Shortly after 5am Close, 5m and 15m chart shows MSS and creates 15m OB Looking for Entry on PD Array on 15m Timeframe (More Probable TF) 5m if refined entry NY Session AM (5m/15m) BIG NOTE: If News coming at 830a EST, move should happen after that - try to not Trade through 830a - that is GAMBLING, not Trading Depending on news being present, entry as the following Entry Price: Top of OB - 1.157 OB 50% Threshold - 1.156 No High Impact News/Events post 830a EST: 15m candle down close inside of 15m OB With High Impact News/Events post 830a EST: After 830a or whenever time the news is released (FOMC 2p EST) Entry in Case Study if condition is present: 845am Entry in Case Study if condition NOT present: 800am May just wait for 830a since it’s closer to NY AM Session Open? Important: What made this entry work? Price never closed under OB low after entering 15m OB Price showed 15m MSS (a 2 bar close under 15m OB is low proabability) William %R Divergence: Price making Lower Lows dropping into 15m OB and Higher Highs on William %R Exit Analysis: Original Price Target: Sept 12th Old Highs (4:1 RR) | Price: 1:174 Intermediate Target(s): Asian Session Bearish OB (1:1 RR) | Price: 1.162 (50% threshold) Result: Price failed to reach Original Price Target which makes sense as there did not seem to be high impact news present - with this we would aim for 1:1 or 2:1 moves using CBDR as reference for spread Move ended up reaching 1:1 RR aligned with 1H Bearish OB BREAKEVEN Thu IPDA Range Conclusion: Asian Session created Thu High NY Session AM Distribution leg created a lower high on 1H timeframe IPDA True Day closed in Discount area of the Wed 1H OB Midnight Price closed at EQ area of the Wed 1H OB With the period starting mid-week Oct 24, 2022 - Friday Journal Define Weekly Range Profile with IPDA True Day Markers Done - IPDA True Day Lines Guess for Weekly Range Profile - Classic Tue Low of Week Reason: Wed had a higher close and made the High of the Week around 1AM Thu before selling off and creating a lower high, my hypothesis is that Price will finish the week with a choppy day or lower close than Thu Therefore if Price has not reached the target Premium PD Array by the London session, I aim to buy Orderblocks into the Sep 12 Weekly High before turning Bearish (FULL CONTEXT HYPOTHESIS) On 1H Chart, you can frame the target areas you want to trade from EOD Thursday - End of NY PM Session ends with price Idenfied Wed FVG under the 1H OB that was mitigated Thu Marked 50% level of FVG Thu Asian Session Short Rally after closing below Thu NY Close then selling off later into day I know now that I am going to drop down to the 15m timeframe to look to execute an entry Fri London Session - Price moves aggressively down into the 1H FVG Huge Detail: WE ARE LOOKING FOR A LTF PD ARRAY TO FORM INSIDE THE 1H ORDERBLOCK TO VALIDATE ENTRY Price creates a 15m Breaker Block and 15m Bullish OB in London Fri London Session EOD (5m/15m) Price trades back into Breaker Block at 5am Entry Price: 1.152 NY Session AM (5m/15m) Price Trades to Thu NY Session close before print Bearish hammer candle and close below Thu NY Session close Intermediate Price Target As price moves into NY Session, adjust 15m OB to last unmitigated candle before 830a EST BIG NOTE: If News coming at 830a EST, move should happen after that - try to not Trade through 830a - that is GAMBLING, not Trading Depending on news being present, entry as the following Same with or without News: FVG nested Breaker Block retest 845am | Entry Price: 1.152 Important: What made this entry work? Breaker Block forming on 15m timeframe aligned with 15m OB inside of 1H FVG near EQ (Strong Probablity) Exit Analysis: Original Price Target: Fri Asian Session Highs (2:1 RR) | Price: 1:159 Intermediate Target(s): Thu NY Session Close (1:1 RR) | Price: 1.156 Result: 2 Trade Opportunities London Session 530a - 730a, 1:1 (Entry/Exit/RR) NY Session AM 845a - 1045a, 2:1 (Entry/Exit/RR) If held through 4p EST close, 2.75:1 RR (2x CBDR from entry) Fri IPDA Range Conclusion: Friday closes Higher than NY Session Low We do not count Sun price action independently Confirmed Weekly Profile - Classic Tue Low of Week Price seems to be close to discount than Premium range Traded inside of Wed Oct 26th candle on Thu/Fri
Long
by EaszzzyE