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ES | Oct. 23, 2023 - Weekly FVG, NWOG, and BreakerUsing the 15m bellwether chart for ES, we observe price opening higher creating a nice new week opening gap (NWOG). At the 9:30am open, a Judas swing takes out London sell-side liquidity before rallying to take out the 8:00am swing high, closing above the high forming a bullish breaker. Price continues to climb into the NWOG and retraces back down into the breaker and into the fair value gap (FVG) providing a clean entry for the ICT 10 - 11am Silver Bullet. Price continues to run higher, trading above the NWOG and showing support as it ultimately trades into the consequent encroachment (CE) of the weekly FVG. Throughout the NY PM session, price fell back through the NWOG, touching the breaker one last time before closing and consolidating at the NWOG's CE.
CME_MINI:ESZ2023
by tristanlee85
Weekly Outlook - SPX 10-22-23 Weekly Chart: We gapped up last week only to trade near last week's high and into the W-FVG(MT). Price failed to continue the move up. We are down for the month and this week's candle has opened inside of last week's candle. Staying bearish for now with last week's low at risk PWL and 10/2-10/6 PWL as well. Getting a bullish short term move into the last up close candle would be where I'm looking for setup unless we go after the PWL first. Weekly Chart: Daily Chart: Opened to the upside is likely my short term bias and I'm okay with seeing prince move into the D-FVG above Friday's PDH. However, just given the proximity oof Friday/PWL (previous week low) this is the first place at risk to be taken out. 10/4 is holding the next PWL target if Friday's PWL is taken out. Daily Chart: 4H Chart: As we push up short term, I'll be looking to see how price pushing and if we reach into this 4H-OB during the over night sessions. That will be my first POI to determine how we setup Monday morning. We don't have a swing low from the weekly to the 4H so far so this still plays into this pushing to the downside a bit more. 4H Chart: 1H Chart: Short term focus will be how we move, if we move into this 1H-FVG, take out the +LP above Friday's closing session high, or if we move immediately after the PWL. Overall I'll be paying attention to the short term move but looking to see if I can get into a HTF setup. 1H Chart:
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by Cory4rex
BIG Potential Long For Gold/ XAUUSD This Week !Weekly Candle has bounced off the weekly support area. Daily candle closed bullish engulfing after Fridays Non Farm Payroll numbers were released. This supports a bullish bias going into the new week. We can expect a continuation to 1850 and 1862 in the next couple days. 15 Minute chart has taken sellside and then given us a market structure shift as annotated. The market structure shift has caused displacement and left behind an FVG which was then tapped into on Friday post NFP. We have a new untapped fair value gap which resides below the equal lows on the 15 minute chart. This is likely the next draw on liquidity before the next move to the upside. I'd like to see price sweep the lows and then run for the breakout of the m15 bullish flag that is currently forming. A breakout will be the confirmed entry in to the run for 1850 and 1862 which is the next H4 FVG / imbalance area. Hope you guys catch this great opportunity with me. Shakeel_SS.FX
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shakeel_SSFX
SOLANA LONG TERM (1D)Solana is in the news of late due to the worry that FTX will have to sell their holdings in SOL and Solana based altcoins. Solana tokens account for $128m out of the $1.5b in assets on the Solana network held by FTX. The fear is that a dump of these coins would be detrimental to the altcoins price. For me the chart is simple. When we look at the 1D chart there is a clear mini range we're working with. Large wicks at the high and low of the range, at the midpoint there is a small bearish FVG just above. I believe this is where we will trade for the remainder of this year. Now that we're at the 0.25 line and looking to react off it, I could see a retest of the midpoint, and if a SFP after tagging the FVG I would look to target the demand zone for a long term hold. For the next bullrun Solana is definitely a large cap alt that is set up to be one of the top gainers. With an ATH of $260, we are already at a great long term hold entry point. However, the best spot buy is in the demand zone. A sweep and reclaim would be great for the bull run to come. The supply zone may be difficult to fill in the next few months, given the FTX news, general market/macro sentiment and recession fears. I would expect a retest to come in Q1 of 2024. If we don't tag the demand zone and move into the supply zone that would be a good short opportunity in my mind. Overall, this is a complicated matter. The token itself has huge potential to reach its ATH in the coming years, but Solana must weather this storm successfully in order to get the chance to reach its potential. Buying blood and being patient will be rewarding.
by ProR35
Weekly Bias for SPX - 10/1/2023Weekly Chart: Traded into last week's bearish engulfing candle and then took out its low. Traded into a +POI (W+FVG), wicked near MT at 4236.6 Weekly Idea: Because we are bearish but entered into this +POI, with may get a bounce but would look to see if the PWL is taken out for a continuation lower. For now, I'm 505/50 on this mainly because of the W+FVG. A bullish scenario would need to be revisited Daily Chart: Price took out the PWL and set a low on the Daily in the W+FVG, however, price bounced from the area without making a new high. This is logic to stay on the downside for now. Another thing to note, Friday's close is at the mid point of the weekly range, Weekly high 4347.4, Weekly Low 4243.2, and Weekly mid point 4295.3, finally Weekly close/ Friday closing price 4295.3. Daily idea: Because of the close and the price failing to make a new high this give reasoning to at least look for the price to take out the PDL and -LP ( $ trend line liquidity) with best case scenario, price taking out the PWL. A bullish scenario would need to be revisited 4H Chart/Idea: We have a 4H-OB and 4H-FVG, one the LTF, do we have price return to mitigate this area? The +breaker is hold price up for now and this will be the first thing that I look at for a response of what price decides to do. The low was made in a +POI, a +OB but will it hold?
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Cory4rex
10/2/23: Sell Setup on SPX10/2/23: Sell Setup: I was looking for a continuation set up on SPX. TK/SY session set a small range that held London but was taken out in the premarket session. This left a 1H/15m-FVG set up with a -OB on the 1H. Price trades into the 15m-FVG (L) and pushed down and failed to make a new low followed by EQLs being set in NY open session. Once the EQLs were made we traded back into the 15m-FVG(MT) and tapped into the mid point. I didn’t see the clean enter in the 15m but the 5m chart gave a great entry that I missed. My targets were the PDL, EQLs/Thurs PDL, and PWL. No entry on the setup, had two attended two meetings back to back and I had to present on the calls. This was the 1st set up I was looking for but I was on a work call and miss this one. This gave confirmations on the 5m/15m charts and this would have been a trade that would have hit the first target of 4274.08 then BE on the remaining. This was the second entry I was looking for, higher into the 15m-FVG. NAS was also reaching into its own FVG which gave me a more validation this was a good setup. But as soon as we passed the mid point at 4297.80 it tanked without confirmations on any of the LTFs, even as far as the 1m chart. This was the final entry, later than I would normally be looking for anything but also no confirmation and this was a good thing because the price could not take out the low and pushed back up off to the DL. Sell Entry: 4293.05,4297.80, 4284.39 SL: 4300,4303.65,4293.05 Targets: 4274.08, 4263.03,4238.23 We’re pushing up for now, we have NY session high, Weekly opening price, and Friday PDH 15m chart:
BLACKBULL:SPX500Short
by Cory4rex
Weekly Bias for DXY/GU - 10/1/23Weekly Chart: DXY and GU both have reach POI, on DXY a W-OB and on GU a W+FVG. In this scenario, I'd be looking for DXY to see how we respond to the PWH if we fail to take it out and trade back into last week's range, I'll look to the downside potentially. If we trade through it, the +LP at 107.993 will be the next draw. GU will have to deal with the W+FVG and the YOP which may be a tough task. Weekly Idea: DXY's strength be the thing I'm watching. This is a good area to fall from and that will spring GU to the up side. A fall lines up with the YOP holding price up on GU. However, if we take out the high on DXY, GU reaches into the YOP Daily Chart: The first draw is the PDH on DXY and the PDL on GU. We will need to pay attention to how the engulfing candles made on Thursday on DXY/GU are handled and this will be a range that the LTF will need to deal with. 4H Chart: DXY has a small 4H-FVG but the one above it is the one I'm interested in. The PDH has already been taken out and the response to the highs are what I'm looking for. On GU, the PDL hasn't been taken yet but its at risk so, I'll be looking at how price reacts to all of the +POIs (D+FVG,4H+Breaker, and the 4H+FVG, 4H+OB). If DXY fails to push through PDH, well look for price to trade into the 4H+FVG and and the same time I'll be looking at price inside of the 4H-FVG on GU.
by Cory4rex
Weekly Bias for Nas100 - 10/1/2023Weekly Chart: Price took out the PWL and the August low into a W+OB and we did close positively for the week. We did create the low of a W-FVG (not drawn but, it's there) and price closed near the middle of the weekly range, Weekly High 14906.5, Weekly Low 14429.3, Weekly Mid point 14667.9, Weekly close 14741.8. Weekly idea: Price took out lows into the W+OB but for now there is a W+FVG below that may be the target. If we take out the PDL, this will be my target into the the W+FVG(H) near 14232.7. In order to turn bullish I will need to see a high taken out and I'll want to see what price does inside the W-FVG. Daily Chart: Price traded into a D-FVG and set the high near the D-FVG (MT) and left a huge wick with a Friday close near the Mid point of the Weekly range. We took out the bearish engulfing made on Tuesday but by Friday we traded back into it. Daily Idea: Price leaving that large wick will cause for me to look at how price response to the close, middle and high of the candle. Do we fail inside this wick or take out the high? This is the question I'll be looking to answer. If we fail, I'll be looking to take out the PDL and THURS PDL. If we take out the high, price should close the D-FVG and trade into another D-FVG just above (not drawn) with the low near 14974.1. 4H Chart: Price left a 4H-OB inside the daily wick and the low was made inside a 4H+FVG(H) 14661.5. There is a +CHOCH above THURS PDH and the this is my hesitation to go full on bearish on the short term. There is also a 4H+Breaker that Friday could not take out as well. 4H Idea: I want to see if price will take out the 4H-OB or the PDL
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by Cory4rex
CPI 13/09/23 CORE CPI (YoY): PREVIOUS: 4.7% FORECAST: 4.3% In the last 5 months of core cpi results, 3/5 actuals have equalled forecasts, with the last 2 months both coming in below forecast. This month is predicted to have the biggest percentage drop out of those previous months. CPI (YoY): PREVIOUS: 3.2% FORECAST:3.6% When looking at the CPI numbers in the same previous 5 months, 5/5 results have come in lower than forecast, could this be 6 in a row? This month we have conflicting forecasts with core CPI going up, but CPI dropping at the same time. With price hovering around the previous Higher Low, I'm interested to see if any event news volatility could cause a print of a lower low on the 1D timeline for the first time this year. Even if it's just a wick and not a full close on the daily, this could confirm a new HTF bearish bias. Added confluence for this would be the loss of the bullish trendline in red. Weeks of consolidation under that area after a bearish retest plus all 3 EMA's suggesting downtrend, Bitcoin has a lot of work to do. The large FVG needs filling at some point, and it looks to be on its way there currently. I'm always cautious going into these big news events, the first move is usually wrong so remember that.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by ProR35
2
BTC possible next move.here is my insight on BTC. we might see it pump again before going back down or break a new high for this year. marked the zones that might become a reversal area for BTC or steppingstone as we make new highs. #BTCUSDT This is not a financial advice, It is not 100% guarantee, and I only share base on what I see. Still DYOR, and TYOR ^-^! just giving you a possible next scenario in my perspective. Happy trading everyone, hope you will have a profitable year.
Long
by itsmeharuru
BTCUSDT.P | 0.618 Fib-level holds: price up three days in a rowBTCUSDT.P is (finally) up a bit. The weekly 0.618 Fib-level has held as support and now the chart shows three green daily candles in a row. That has been a while... Price also broke the daily (downward) trendline. That's the positive. But on the other hand... Price is now facing a big FVG (Fair Value Gap). Above that the 21 weekly EMA resistance is creeping closer. The weekly (downward)trendline (dotted) also has yet to be broken. Once BTC has broken all of these, there's a bearish order block (red) waiting at 30.000ish. So: price is up, but where not out of the woods yet.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by FibonaccIvo
IPDA Ranges to Cast Future Price Movement for ES Familiarizing ourselves more on IPDA Ranges to help form daily bias and to work on high time frame analysis. The first idea we ever published was actually a very similar thought but now that we have a better understanding of how to use IPDA ranges we wanted to post what we hope to be a more accurate version of what is to occur in CME_MINI:ES1! price action. We are trading down off of a weekly order block that was traded into on July 18th; we have taken out the July 10th low of 4660.25 and we have failed to make a higher swing above 4683.50. It seems like the market has shifted to bearish conditions for the intermediate term. Using the look back and cast forward train of thinking, we have been trading higher for the 60 trading days prior to August 1st which is just 3 trading days after making our current intermediate high; meaning our cast forward should have plenty of sell side liquidity to draw to in order to clear out stops below our 20-40-60 day ranges. It just so happens that we have a +Breaker Block that contains a Fair Value Gap/Liquidity Void inside of it. This gives us a lot of confidence in our bearish outlook as the 60 day low is quite literally is the top of our Liquidity Void and also falls into a zone for Optimal Trade Entry (OTE). The only major bounce we should see is off of the March 13th Premium/Discount range as the Equilibrium for that range falls right in a Liquidity Void. The only thing that will push us through that with ease is some red folder news. Should be a piece of cake.. We are proud to put ourselves out there with ideas. It forces us to use logic and apply concepts and ideals that we have learned. Any questions or comments leave them below! CME_MINI:ES1! EIGHTCAP:SPX500 CBOE:SPX TVC:SPX BLACKBULL:SPX500 SKILLING:SPX500
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by blackoakcapital
BITCOIN IMBALANCE : March 2023 Fractal Today, we're delving into one of the essential aspects of trading - imbalances. This concept can be your trusted ally in navigating the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies. As an example, let's consider a situation from March 2023 when we experienced a drop due to an imbalance, followed by a retest and a continuation of the upward trend. 💡 What Are Imbalances? Imbalances occur when there's a significant disparity between supply and demand in the market. This can lead to rapid price movements as the market seeks equilibrium. 📉 The March 2023 Scenario: In March 2023, Bitcoin saw a significant drop, which many attributed to a market imbalance. However, what followed was a crucial moment. Instead of a continued decline, there was a retest of lower levels. 🔍 The Importance of Retests: Retests are pivotal events. When an asset retests a previous low or support level and manages to hold or bounce back, it often signals a shift in market sentiment. In this case, it marked a potential end to the imbalance-induced decline. 🚀 The Resumption of Uptrend: After the retest in March 2023, Bitcoin started to climb again. This example illustrates how imbalances can be opportunities for traders, especially when combined with a thorough understanding of market psychology. 🔮 The Future Awaits: Imbalances are just one aspect of the intricate cryptocurrency market. While they can provide valuable insights, always conduct proper research, and consider other factors before making trading decisions. In conclusion, understanding imbalances can be your compass in the crypto world. By recognizing their presence and closely watching retests, you may identify potential turning points in the market, just as we saw in March 2023. Stay vigilant, stay informed, and remember - in trading, imbalances can be the precursor to significant opportunities! 🌐💰
INDEX:BTCUSD
by AlexWhale
Swing Trade on SPXNow that I have 2 funded accounts, going to use one for swing trades with around 1-2 lots just cause I'd like to have 1 funded account on a higher TF level. I find Swing Trading 1 account will let me keep my higher TF bias in check or analyzed consistently without choice, and so I am starting it off with this SPX trade. We've had Equal Highs into a previous FVG around the 50% mark of said FVG. So I am placing a short here. Wicks show the damage done to that liquidity. I'm quite sure we are going to head downward on a daily level toward the next FVG. I have a bearish bias this week as long as we stay below the weekly open. We are also sitting in Buyside Liquidity while we had pretty good displacement from the downtrend and this displacement has brought us to retest the break in market structure. TP1 will be at 50% of the FVG, and TP2 will be at the fully closed FVG. If that were to play out there are some Bullish Order Blocks formed below the FVG, and that would be where I can start to look for a long. Depends on what happens over the next few days. Looking to stay in this trade to around Friday or Monday; Really depends on the price action. If the trade hits and we react strong off that FVG I will be looking for continuation trades to the bullish first Bullish OB. My stop is set at the Equal Highs because if we return to those double Equal Highs there is a high probability we break above it a bit. So just trying to keep losses minimal with a bit of wiggle room to those highs. Let's see.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500Short
by taztrader
ES Morning Shorts From Last Nights IdeaGood Afternoon everyone, I will show in depth order entries in this post, read the updates to see. This idea was formed last night around 10PM NY Time. I originally was hoping to trade up into the most recent Order Block (green path arrow) during the London session and end at the Terminus -4 around 8:00AM NY time. I then would've liked to see accumulations followed by a Turtle Soup or sweep of that low at the Terminus -4 during market open. I wanted to take countertrend longs in that area into the Order Block resting above the Liquidity Void, this move is denoted by the orange path arrow. However we ended up going straight to Terminus -4 during London and we rallied above Asia accumulation into the Bearish Order Block sitting right above (green path arrow). We took shorts from this area and we were looking to target the Sellside Liquidity below to complete our MMSM (Market Maker Sell Model) on the 15M chart. We were able able to bank 2.1% off the move just by taking profits at the short term low 4507.5 and holding a few more contracts to a slightly lower price once we noticed price wasn't wanting to break the low at the Terminus -4 just yet. The Sellside Liquidity is still a viable target, we have just been choppy since right after open so taking profits is worth the time spent waiting for price. Hopefully this was more insightful on how to form an idea for the next trading day. I will commit to making more informational posts like this. Please read the updates for a 5M look at the entries and a reference to the MMSM.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by blackoakcapital