21/08/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $29678.9
Last weeks low: $26943.6
Midpoint: $24208.4
August so far has been living up to it's history of being a red month. Last week we saw price fall ~18.45% from weekly high to low, filling in the fair value gaps from the previous HTF rally and printing a new 1W lower high for the first time this year.
Now that the FVG has been filled and a bit of volatility reintroduced into the market the next move is very important. For BTC to stand a chance in the near term I think the bulls need to reclaim the 1D 200EMA very quickly. Last weeks midpoint at 26942.4 is also approximately at the 1D 200EMA. However, If price rejects off that level when retesting it then I do think price will slowly find itself tending towards the yearly open of around 19k.
Fvg
US30 - Weekly reviewHello Traders!
Hope this week was a profitable one.
US30 had a rather bearish week - we can see that after last weeks low was broken. Market gave us clear direction for sellside to be taken out.
Yellow lines are showing us previous areas of where sellside liquidity could be.
I expect the bearish momentum to continue however we must also anticipate corrections before the real move happens.
Today is Friday naturally we notice reversals to the current trend for the week. Traps and sweeps will be on the agenda ;)
i will be watching price from 34765 to 34745 for entry zone
REMEMBER this is not confirmation but merely anticipation.
Follow your rules ;)
$ES New All Time High ExpectedOur projected path for CME_MINI:ES1! to take out the January 2022 High which also happens to be the All Time High. We are using a range from a Weekly Volume Imbalance and a Weekly Bullish Order Block combined to give us a price range between $4190-$4288 to find long positions. This price range is also in a discount for the current weekly price leg; giving us more reason to look for buying opportunities here. Look for price to reach this are late August or early September. We will post a smaller time frame once we get into this area and we see a favorable trade. We will take a small swing position but we are more excited to ride the price legs to the new high through intraday trading. We have used Fibonacci Projections to give us $4854 as our first target.
Just for fun we want to call $5092 as the 2023 High of The Year. Leave your best guesses for the 2023 High below :)
Happy Trading,
BlackOakCapital
TSLA fifth wave and bullish FVG 4h timeframeI've been keeping a close watch on TSLA's recent movements, and there's something worth sharing. It seems we're in the midst of the fifth wave, if we follow Elliott Wave Theory. What's even more intriguing is that on the 4-hour chart, a bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap) could be in the works, indicationing the end of the bearish (fourth) wave.
Adding to the excitement, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is giving us some interesting signals. It's right on the edge of slipping into oversold territory, a potential sign of a turnaround. Plus, keep an eye out for the impending cross between the RSI and its RSI-based Moving Average (MA), as that could indicate a significant move coming up.
This setup has definitely caught my attention, and I'm thinking there's a trading opportunity brewing. If taking the trade I would suggest a safe stoploss below the fourth wave or a more risky one below the next bullish liquidity void on the chart. I would target the end of the fifth wave as a TP area because after that I believe we will see the first correction wave of the ABC pattern.
Of course, as traders, we know the drill – careful analysis and risk management are key before making any moves.
Unlocking the Secrets of Price Inefficiency: Dive Deep into FVG👑Price inefficiencies are also known as imbalances, gaps or voids. Healthy price action moves in a zigzag fashion, making highs and lows in line with the directional bias at any given moment. When price isn’t trending we find it consolidates, in which case highs lows are still being made. However, we may also see price move in straight lines with huge volume and momentum. When this happens, price finds itself unable to deliver price in an efficient manner. For example, in a bullish environment, price may continue to make higher highs without providing higher lows at a discount price. When price moves with this much momentum, it leaves behind imbalances.
🟠An imbalance can be identified by open space in price action, where the wicks on either side of a candle do not match each other. On the left is an example of price inefficiency, since the wick high of candle 1 does not meet the wick low of candle 3, leading to an imbalance on candle 2.
🟠This is an example of healthy price action with no imbalances. This is because all candles have wicks on either side of them. Since wicks were bodies during live price action and are bodies on lower time frames, this shows that price was delivered efficiently to buyers and sellers in this area. Whereas the example above shows an imbalance on a bullish candle, which shows that price was only available to buyers in that imbalance and therefore is not efficient.
👉For price to be efficient, it needs to be delivered to buyers and sellers. This helps us understand that in our original bullish imbalance, price has to come back and fill that imbalance using bearish price action in order to make that price available to sellers. This re-balancing could take hours, days, weeks or years, but it is our job to understand that it must happen at some point. Inline with the rest of the strategy, we can use this knowledge to pick out the specific imbalances that will be filled and how we can capitalise on this.
🟠This is an example of the correctly identified imbalance and where we expect price to react from
🟠This is an example when is our level being met, it is at this point that we use the rest of the strategy and knowledge to capitalise on the move that is about to unfold with high risk:reward entries.
🟠This is the completion of this particular market cycle, with our level being respected and price giving us a nice bullish leg.
🔴Bearish Order Flow:
🟢Bullish Order Flow:
EUR/USD BEARISH SETUP WAITING NFPWe have a bearish setup on the Euro Dollar, with the price currently located around 1.0945, practically retesting a block that previously acted as support and is now serving as resistance. The objective will be to look for a short entry in the golden square I have highlighted, as that area aligns with the 50-61 Fibonacci levels. However, please be cautious as today we have the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) data release. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
USD/CAD LONG & SHORT SETUPOn USD/CAD, we have a bullish setup, with the price navigating within a high volatility zone (fvg) since this morning, suggesting a potential long opportunity. Today's trading activity will be focused solely on the London session, as we have significant macroeconomic data from 14:00 to 17:00 Italian time. Currently, I am waiting for the price to close a candle on the H1 timeframe outside the fvg. Once that happens, I'll look for a confirmation on the next candle at the M15 timeframe. If it's not a pin bar or doji, that will be my entry signal. Have a great day from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
AUDNZD BUY ICT 20 PIP SCALPSince the Yen will be dropping some suspect news tonight, I'm moving my usual ICT 20 Pip Scalp (21 with the spread) from my AUDJPY pair to the AUDNZD. It already bounced from my 1 hour Breaker Block/4 hour FVG point of interest. If price doesn't clear the buy side liquidity resting above, I believe I'll have a scalp this Asian Session.
XAUUSD Buy I'm interested in a tight Order Block entry seen on the 1 minute time frame. I like how it swept out previous liquidity and started towards the upside. The stop would be safest below the Fair Value Gap that the point of interest dipped into towards the left. And I would target the equal highs above.
Gold is Ready For a Bullish WeekFOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Gold is currently bouncing off monthly and weekly FVG.
It has taken the Sellside liquidity on 4HR with a clear Buyside liquidity above to take and clear FVG to fill, both serving as draw on liquidity.
Hence, I expect gold to be bullish for the next few days till atleast those liquidity above are taking and FVG is filled.
Entry:
Entry is at the extreme of the fvg below, precisely the optimum trade entry level of the Fibonacci retracement tool.
What is your view on gold?
Do follow for more updates
My July And Long-Term Bias on Gold (Xauusd)FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Monthly View On Gold
Currently Gold is at a monthly time frame premium level, which means we can see sell moves on lower time frames anytime from now.
However, when you follow the monthly order flow and price delivery on Gold, you will discover that, prior to this current leg move to the premium draw on liquidity, gold took out sell-side liquidity first before making the move up.
And right now, price has formed a triple top liquidity draw above through the wicks of the 3 leg moves to the premium zone.
I expect price to keep going higher, at least to take out the liquidity at the triple top above.
Also, price is currently at a bullish order block, which can help to push the price higher.
Weekly Time Frame
On Weekly, price is currently at a discount level of the range and currently reacting to the discount PD array of FVG serving as a support for price. Which might hold and push price higher.
Overall, for July, I expect Gold to be bullish.
The only reason price might drop is to rebalance an imbalance below the price, which is less likely to happen this month.
But, hey, this is a Financial market where market makers determine the direction of price delivery they want.
What do you see on your chart for Gold?
The Two Reasons I Might Go Long On TeslaOn the weekly timeframe for NASDAQ:TSLA , I noticed two things immediately.
- A candle closed above the downwards trendline indicating strength in buyers
- NASDAQ:TSLA recently bounced off of a Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Given these two reasons, I am bullish on NASDAQ:TSLA as of now.
Stop Loss / Take Profits
Stop loss:
The stop loss of this trade is set at a close below the low of the candle that bounced off of the FVG. A close below the FVG would signify that the bounce was fake, and there is still more downside.
Take Profits:
All of these take profits are set at levels that were recent highs.
My plan would be to scale out half of my position at TP1, 1/2 of the remaining position at TP2, and fully out at TP3
Let me know what you think of this trade!
Short Trade = Daily Anti Cypher + Bearish Maxlev PatternShort Trade = Daily Anti Cypher + Bearish Maxlev Pattern
Price seems to be in a downtrend, creating lower low market structures.
Confluences:
1. Price below FRVP POC
2. Price below AVWAP bands
3. Large Bearish Harmonic Pattern
4. Bearish Maxlev Pattern
Target:
1. Liquidity Hunt from Maxlev Pattern
2. FVG
SP500 probably "peaked". Powe(r)ll "shocked/Shorted" on 26/7/23?After reviewing SPX smaller time frame chart and referring back to the "bigger pic". SPX probably at its top "temporarily". P/s. There are many gurus/ textbook written "documented" that E.G : "Market is unpredictable";' Never try to predict the market".. BUT but.. not just Option / Future trading instruments but many others instruments "are designed" for "Big Boy" who has "edge" over retail traders to "Speculating/ Anticipating" Next Market Moves.. E.g Warrent Buffet "Getting his stock's portfoilio "discounted" by "speculating" option..
Last but not least, As many said : No one can predict the long term trend. e.g Monthly, Weekly or even daily market ..See money "in short term e.g 5 min , hourly chart" take money first is their "Trading's motto". BUT tell you what. If we can't tell what the longer chart next moves, we will "failed more" in short term chart, it's like "zooming" into our face's skin.. Silky "SMOOTH" from far But "Lot of cracking" Much more "chaostic" "surface once zoom into 1min, 5min etc "skin face"!!! So trade lesser in higher time frame chart is "Making lesser losing trade with better risk/reward Setup!