Ethereum climbs past $1700 but can it continueThe H4 imbalance (white shaded box) was filled and the structure of ETH on the 4-hour remained bearish. The OBV saw a bounce but did not trend upward.
The Fibonacci retracement levels plotted for the move down to $1630 last week showed that the $1716 and $1740 are important resistances.
Entry: $1716
Stop-loss: $1753 (a move above $1740 and $1750 will signal bullish intent and a bullish MSB)
Take-profit: $1597 (the 23.6% extension level, although a drop below $1600 could eventually see $1500 retested in the coming weeks)
R:R- 3.45
Fvg
USDJPY Short IdeaWe are Currently in Premium, testing a Bearish Orderblock in the form of PDA. Inside this Orderblock, we have a new orderblock from which price moved rapidly away from as well as it took out previous high, which validates the OB. Price Manipulated the Previous Highs with a long wick, making this a Smart Money Reversal. We have a lot of FVG and EQL (SSL) to fill in. As another confirmation, we expect a retracement down as we have an overextended W, which should attract the market to move downwards.
If the price should reach there, I'm looking to scale off some profits at around 110.077.
Two possible Scenarios,
One entry (main setup), it's a lower entry so more likely to get triggered.
One entry at Equilibrium (CE), which has way better Risk to Reward but is less likely to get triggered. (however, LTF created lots of imbalance inside the new OB, which could definitely get filled)
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Confirmations:
- In Premium
- Orderblock INSIDE bigger Orderblock
- Manipulation of the High
- FVG & SSL Targets
- W formation Retracement
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My ONLY Concern for me is that we have a lot of News today which could impact price to move the other direction.
This may fail, but at least I'm not afraid to show my risk to reward box BEFORE it happens, unlike 95% of everyone on this platform.
If it fails, I still have a strong belief that these FVG and SSL level will get filled soon, and I'll still keep them as targets for future trades.
S&P500 to Sellside Liquidity
S&P500 DAILY TIMEFRAME / ("ESM2023" Futures Contract)
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ORDERFLOW & TARGETING:
The Orderflow in S&P is Bearish. Every Bearish Orderblock and Fair Value Gap have been holding price lower. I'm looking for this Orderflow to continue being Bearish until the Sellside Liquidity gets mitigated...
S&P500 has now engineered Sellside Liquidity below current price, inducing Retail traders to Buy at this price point. Therefore, many orders are resting below these equal lows, so the market should seek this Liquidity.
TREASURY BONDS:
The Bond-Market is looking Bullish, which would indicate Lower prices in the S&P - due to their Inverse Correlation against each other.
The Bonds are aiming for their Equal Highs Buyside Liquidity:
POTENTIAL INVALIDATION OF THE IDEA:
- Although I'm Bearish... From where price is at right now - I NEED to see the current Bullish Orderblock's Equilibrium 50% traded THROUGH to the Downside with a Daily Candle closure. (The Bullish Orderblock is that Bearish candle I marked up that price is currently testing) . So right now, price is above the 50% price point, and therefore Orderflow is still Bullish short-term. Only when the first Daily Candle CLOSES Below the 50% of the orderblock is when I will be looking to Sell down into Sellside Liquidity. (The 50% of the Orderblock is at 3940. I need to see price Close Below that) .
- Market Structure is currently Bearish. However, if the Protected High (the High that caused the Lower Low - Annotated "PH" on the chart) gets traded Above (at 4057) , that would become a Bullish Market Stucture Break, and I would no longer be Bearish, but I would rather aim for Buyside Liquidity at 4245 (annotated "SMS" in the chart) .
But as long as we Remain Below the Protected High, I still hold my Bearish Bias down into the Sellside Liquidity.
So in Summary of the Invalidations...:
I need to see the Bullish orderblock's 50% get traded Down through, and only then I will start looking for selling into Sellside Liquidity.
As long as price remains below the Protected High - I'm Bearish.
#TechnicalScience ;)
ES - Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis
June 5 - June 9, 2023
In the current market, we find ourselves inside the Daily Liquidity Area. 50% of this area aligns with the end of the Daily Volume Imbalance at 4314.
For this week, I anticipate a test of the Consequent Encroachment of Liquidity Area and a potential fill of the Daily Volume Imbalance. I believe that 4317.75 could act as a significant barrier preventing further upward movement in price. Therefore, my key level to watch is 4317.75, as I am likely to consider closing my long positions at this point.
A break above 4317.75 will attract more bulls into the market, and I can expect a bounce towards the 4339 level, which would fill the Daily Breakaway Gap.
However, if the market fails to hold the Daily Liquidity Area and breaks below 4380, it would present a short trade opportunity with a target of 4266-4264. I am particularly interested in observing a test of the 5-minute Order Block, as it has shown strong support thus far.
In order to see further bearish momentum, it would be necessary for another Liquidity Area in the range of 4254-4247 to be breached. In such a scenario, I would initiate a short scalp trade with a quick target at the 4240.50 level, which represents the Consequent Encroachment of the 5-minute wick.
Looking ahead, my next key level to monitor is 4223.75. However, I will provide more details about this level during the week, as currently, there don't appear to be sufficient reasons to anticipate a move towards this level due to multiple barriers situated above it.
EAZE STRATEGY UP 20% ON ARBITRIUM My Eaze Strategies is a Strategy thats stress free base on it has just 1 or 2 entry per week and i have used it on Arbitrium(ARB) since they launched and we are Up 20%. In 9 and Half weeks since ARB launched i have heard 4 trades, three wins , 1 lost and 2 did not hit my entry and some did not play my Strategy criterial. if you want me to share this strategy like and follow.
Eurusd weekly forecast 1 to 5 RRhello traders the market has left fair valuation before we see any real bullish trend as we are overall bull . we need to balance the market and the market has left it .we just need that pull back on 15 min fvg for entry then we target the fvg down it is a nice 1 to 5 rr if it play out this is nice setup let me know what you think
Panning for Gold on market structureOANDA:XAUUSD
Didn't take a trade today, as I scalped my usual 10 spot early on Asia session open.
But looks like the markets treated everyone good today with the hopes of USA debt ceiling fight might be resolved soon.
Gold looking good on this 4H market structure template
ES - short-term analysis Yesterday, we witnessed a sell-off down to the 4-hour Breaker Block, followed by a bounce from that level.
There is a 15-minute SMT divergence between NQ and YM, as well as a 1-hour SMT divergence with YM. This could indicate the possible formation of a MMBM (Market Maker Buy Model).
Currently, I'm interested in observing the testing of two short-term BSL levels: 4158 and 4166. After that, we may see a rapid bounce towards the 4175 level, which is an OB on the 15-minute chart.
My primary focus area is around the 1-hour OB, which ranges from 4186 to 4190.
However, for a comprehensive analysis, we need to see the retesting of the Monday High. If the market holds above the New Week Open Gap (NWOG), then my long target will be in the range of 4198 to 4200.
Please note that the Monday High at 4222.75.
ES short-term analysisToday I want to see fill of the 1h Breakaway Gap - 4139.
My key level 4125. This is buystops level. Pretty sure it will want to test it to complete ATM/ICT Mentorship Model.
My Pre-market Plan for May 24, 2023:
Bullish Scenario - Break above 4165 (short-term BSL, 4163 NY Midnight Open Price as well) can bring some bulls —> 4175 - this is "NWOG" - 04/16-04/21.
Market looks more bearish anyway. Once it tested 4175 level and failed to hold it, I am going to play long w/ target at 4186-90.
1h OB - 4190 + 1h FVG.
Bearish Scenario - Break below 4132 ("NWOG" - 05/07-05/12) will give short trade opportunity with target at 4126.
Next my trade can be below 4120 - SSL on 1h chart.
Once it breaks this SSL level, it will open the room to the 4111.
Key Levels for long today: 4158, 4168, 4185
Key Levels for short today: 4131, 4122, 4104
ES short-term analysisWe have 1h Breaker block 4213.75-4220.50. We might see possible bounce to this BB and a drop to the 15m Breakaway Gap - 4177.
But it can drop from 4204 - there is 15m FVG there + 3m BB.
Break above 4227 will bring us to the 4244. This is Buyside Liquidity level.
I want to see fill of the breakaway gap first. 4177 and 4170 my key levels. They act as a magnet for the price. Once it fails to hold 4161 - SSL, we are going to have short trade opportunity with target at 4145. There is 15m Liquidity Void
ES Monthly Analysis After Market Structure Shift, it bounced right to the Monthly Breaker Block and started selling off to the Monthly Measuring Gap.
Looks like ICT 2022 Mentorship Model to me. I want to see bounce to the 4232-35 level. This is 50% of the long wick on the down candle that touched Breaker Block.
After that I want to see sell off to the Internal Liquidity level at 3500. Break below 3500 will bring us to the 3380. This is Mean threshold of the Monthly Order Block
USDCHF 0.89747 -0.11% SHORT IDEA 📈💡🐻HELLO EVERYONE
HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD.
* Looking at USD/CHF HEADING INTO THE LONDON SESSION
1. LOOKING FOR ASIAS TO TAKE SOME BSL BEFORE CORRECTION TO THE DOWNSIDE.
2. The trend is still bullish so should we continue higher looking for long opportunities.
3. We are trading in premium so shorts are favoured .
4. Looking at that unfilled FVG as a possible entry with the bears to continue higher.
5. should this happen the trade will most likely happen in NY-SESSION fo continuation with the bulls
5. TARGET would be the the SSL & THE DAILY +OB/ +FVG.
lets see how it goes.
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE
SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
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* Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
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| * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤
LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
ES AnalysisES inside the 4h FVG and 4h Breaker Block.
Sunday Open:
1) Possible pullback to the 15m Breaker Block and bounce to the 4147-4153.25 will be great to see.
There is 1h Breaker Block (4149.50-4153.25).
Break above 4166 should offer the test of the daily Volume Imbalance at 4179.50-4185.75.
2) Failure to hold 4h Breaker Block should offer short opportunity to the 4h OB. 4087.25-4079.75 where 4079.75 is mean threshold of this Order Block.
USDJPY Long- Fair Value GapThe USDJPY currency pair has demonstrated a recent uptrend, characterized by bullish price action. As a prudent investor, I awaited a retracement to a level where the market exhibited a disparity between buyers and sellers, commonly referred to as the fair value gap (FVG). Subsequently, I aligned my investment strategy with the prevailing market trend and executed a long position to capitalize on the ongoing bullish momentum.