Do not trade if you do not have high probability XAUUSDIt’s not just about the thrill of nailing a setup and making profits. It’s also about recognizing when an asset has you emotionally trapped, even when there’s no solid argument for your position. Here’s a lesson from my own experience:
After making a huge trade on gold ( ) , I became fixated on the idea that it would keep falling, completely ignoring the market structure. This blinded me to the obvious bullish signals the market was giving.
Here are the 7 bullish arguments for gold that I overlooked in my post-trade euphoria:
Monthly PCH disrespected
Weekly FVG respected
Weekly Swing Low respected
Daily Swing Low respected
Daily FVG respected
Bearish 4H FVG disrespected
4H Swing Low respected
Not a single bearish argument in sight—a full 100% probability that the price would rise, and indeed it did.
🚨 Lesson learned: Being a profitable trader isn’t just about technical analysis. It’s about mastering your emotions, understanding market structure, and managing your risk. Stay humble, stay disciplined.
Fvg
Gold h1 Buying and selling opportunities!For tomorrow, the resistance areas are: 2524 and 2521. The support area we're finding on the M30 is at 2507-2505. These levels will perform tomorrow, and we should also keep an eye on geopolitical events. Additionally, tomorrow we have (PPI) news affecting us.
XAUUSD ShortGold Trade Update 💡💰
I’m still holding the same view on gold: it needs to dip before continuing its upward trajectory. This setup is intended as a swing trade, but I’ll be taking multiple quick scalping opportunities along the way.
My Plan: I’ll focus on the bearish 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG), entering the trade as soon as I spot a wick in the 4H chart seeking liquidity from above.
Trade Management:
Take partial profits as soon as we see a decline 📉
Move Stop Loss (SL) to Break Even (BE) after taking the first profit.
Capital at Risk: 2% 💼
Risk/Reward Ratio: 4:09 🔥
Let’s see how this works out! 🧐
BTC Short High riskI'm seeing that the price of bitcoin could explode at any time. However, I'm starting to notice weakness in the bounce so I've taken the opportunity to make a short entry as it hasn't broken strongly above the 4h FVG and only went up for liquidity.
Trade management: SL in the wick in case it resumes the upward bias better get out of the way. TP on the swing low.
Risking capital: 0.50%.
RR: 2.7
EURJPY LongMarket Idea for This Week 🔍
FX:EURJPY
After analyzing last week's sharp drop, I'm seeing a strong opportunity with the market's current reaction. The Asian range at the start of this week has created a significant bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) on both the 4H and 1H timeframes. Although the 4H FVG carries more weight, I've opted to place my Stop Loss (SL) based on the 1H FVG for tighter risk management.
Trade Management Plan:
Target: Take profit (TP) as soon as the Order Block (OB) is reached on the 15min chart.
Risk Management: Move SL to break-even (BE) once first TP is hit.
USOIL / TRADING BELOW SUPPLY ZONE - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Prices are currently on a downward trajectory, trading below the identified supply zone at approximately 70.04 and 69.21. The market is now approaching the support level at 67.27. There is a possibility of a brief retest of the supply zone before the price continues its decline towards the next support levels, which are around 66.87 and 65.58.
Conversely, if the price manages to break above the resistance level at 70.04, this would suggest a potential upward movement. In this case, the next target would be the resistance level at 71.54. For a confirmed upward trend, the price would need to break and maintain stability above 71.54. Achieving this could lead to further gains, with the next resistance target being around 74.03.
KEY LEVELS :
Supply Zone: 70.04 , 69.21 .
Resistance Levels : 71.54 , 74.03 .
Support Levels : 67.27 , 66.87, 65.58 .
WTI Crude Oil USOUSD LongIn my humble opinion, the worst seems to be over for oil.
Trading Idea: After analyzing multiple sessions, I noticed how well the price has absorbed the recent drop, reclaiming the liquidity distribution from last month. There’s no strong indication of further downside. The Asian session has brought it into a solid accumulation range. I’m looking for an entry within the lower zone, aligned with a 15-minute FVG.
Trade Management: Once the rally begins, I plan to take partial profits (40%) at yesterday’s NY session high, and let the remaining position run toward the swing high. I’m targeting a rally up to the $73 area, but will wait for additional high-probability confirmations as the rally unfolds.
Risk: 0.50%
R/R: 6.78
Golden Hunt with ICT Strategy: Perfect XAU/USD Analysis in the 1Hey everyone! Today, I’m excited to share a fascinating analysis of the XAU/USD pair in the 1-hour timeframe using the ICT strategy. I’ve added a free indicator to the chart that not only identifies swing points but also beautifully connects them with lines. This indicator even marks the days of the week, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), and includes a 20-period EMA. It’s truly an amazing tool!
What’s more, it has features for displaying Kill Zones, sessions, and Silver Bullet, but I’ve turned those off for now to keep the focus on the essentials.
As you can see, Break of Structure (BOS) points are clearly marked, and I’ve highlighted the areas where the market structure has shifted. Notice how sometimes strong swing highs or lows are "hunted" by a shadow that pierces through, leading to a sharp bearish move afterward. The indicator highlights most of these hunts in red, helping us better anticipate market movements.
For entering trades, I used a simple tool to highlight green zones on the chart. I employed Fibonacci retracement levels of 61.8%, 70.5%, 79%, and 50% to pinpoint key entry areas. Additionally, using a custom method based on standard deviation, I marked potential future price zones with dotted lines.
In summary, this analysis combines advanced ICT techniques with practical tools to give you a clearer view of gold’s movements. I hope these insights help you achieve more successful trades! ✨
Nasdaq100 High risk LONGIdea in Progress: Noticing that during the Asian and London sessions, the price hasn’t made a new low, I see potential for an upward move. Given that the price is currently within a bullish 4H FVG, there’s a chance it could rise toward the bearish 4H FVG created yesterday before resuming its decline.
Trade Management: I'll take profit at the first swing high and then move my stop loss to break even.
Risk: 1%
Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.34
XAUUSD ShortAfter the great rally yesterday, I decided to open another short taking advantage of a bearish FVG in 5 min looking for the 4h FVG in the 2487$ area.
Risk: 1%.
RR: 3:92
Risk management: Today there is a lot of movement due to financial events like the CPI so we will have to take partial profits.
EURUSD ShortThere is not much volatility today due to the U.S. holiday. However, I have seen that so far the FX:EURUSD has not made a new high, I take the opportunity to enter short towards the low zone.
Risk: 0.50%.
Trade Management: Take partial profits, for example at the low of the Asian session and then move the SL in BE.
RR: 3:81
GBPUSD SHORTI'm currently participating in a trading competition, which is why I'm opening more trades than usual—these are not on my personal account. Typically, I only open one trade per day on my personal account, but only when my setup shows a high probability of confirmation.
Trade Management: I've decided to open a short position because the price has been creating Fair Value Gaps (FVG) consecutively on the 5-minute chart, and it seems likely that it will seek liquidity in the lower zones. Additionally, there's a 4-hour FVG, which increases the probability of the price continuing to drop. However, once it reaches the sell-stop, I plan to take partial profits (70%).
Risk: 1%
Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.84
XAUUSD ¿Can we confirm WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTION?1️⃣ Demand Taking a Break: After hitting its ATH with a clear UPTHRUST, the market has paused.
2️⃣ Triple Test Failure: Three tests with no significant demand generated.
3️⃣ Price Exhaustion: With the price looking worn out, we could see a move towards the $2487 liquidity zone and potentially lower, offering the supply side a chance to find fair value.
Keep an eye on how this unfolds. ⚠️
ETHBTC Analysis🚨📉 Analysis ETH/BTC:
1️⃣ Demand MIA: No demand in #Ethereum at the moment.
2️⃣ Supply in Charge: Sellers are firmly in control.
3️⃣ Heads Up: If the price doesn’t bounce soon from last month’s lows, a bigger drop in BINANCE:ETHBTC could be on the horizon.
For now, I’m staying on the sidelines and looking for shorts in the short term. ⚠️
EURAUD Sell IdeaThe reason I am selling the EUR/AUD currency pair is because
inflation in the Eurozone has eased to 2%, which could prompt the ECB to cut interest rates again.
Meanwhile, inflation in Australia has risen slightly while the Reserve Bank of Australia has kept interest rates unchanged, and on the other hand, Australia's trading partner, China, is making efforts to boost its inflation, which has been under pressure, by cutting interest rates and providing future stimulus.
Therefore, the AUD has better long-term prospects compared to the EUR.
Sell Limit : 1.65700
Stoploss : 1.66100
Take Profit : 1.64500
Be safe and protect your capital with stoploss
GOLD shortSeeing the demand weakening, I have decided to open a short right on a FVG that was formed and wait for a reaction to a temporary swing low. It really looks like gold is going to fall quite a bit but well, one step at a time. The important thing is to generate profits and protect capital. OANDA:XAUUSD
BITCOIN Is Bullish! Heading To the Highs!After breaking the ATH (All Time High) in March, BTC has formed the a huge Bear Flag, incrementally retracing to a Weekly bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap). The +FVG has proved to be resilient, holding price from going lower... and now price is rallying from said +FVG.
Friday, price formed another +FVG on the Daily TF. This is the bullish indicator I look for to get a sense of the order flow. Should price pullback into the Daily +FVG, it will use it to move higher toward the ATH.
ICT has taught that price will move towards the "smooth edges" when seeking liquidity. Look at the path to the ATH. It is a series of highs that at relatively close together. Compare that to the lows. Price had a hugh heat seeking liquidation wick to sweep the sell side liquidity before moving higher.
The liquidity pools are above now.
Price moves from IRL->ERL->IRL. This is how a trend works. HH->HL->HH.
Price is now moving from Internal Liquidity (FVGs) to External Liquidity (HIghs/Lows). This is how the market moves. It's all about the liquidity.
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 21/08/2024Last week, the Judas Swing strategy produced just two trades, both on EURUSD. It served as an excellent lesson in risk management; despite having one win and one loss, we concluded the week with a profit, securing a 1% gain. Even during a slow week, we concluded on a positive note, and it's these small victories that sustain a trader's enthusiasm for the new opportunities each week brings. As is customary, at 8:25 AM EST, we commenced the day by reviewing the essential items on our Judas Swing strategy checklist, which comprises:
- Setting the timezone to New York time
- Confirming we're on the 5-minute timeframe
- Marking the trading period from 00:00 - 08:30
- Identifying the high and low of the zone
We now wait for the high or low of the trading zone to be swept, which would guide our bias for the session. After 1 hour and 35 minutes, the low of the zone was swept, indicating that we should look for buying opportunities during this trading session
After 35 minutes, there was a break of structure (BOS) to the buy side, leaving behind a Fair Value Gap (FVG). Now, all that remains is to patiently wait for price to retrace into the FVG, presenting us with a trading opportunity
The subsequent candle formed a bearish marubozu, closing the gap left from the previous upward move. We executed our trade after the candle's closure, as it met all the criteria on our checklist
After executing our trade, we experienced minimal drawdown as the position quickly turned profitable. These are the types of trades we all hope for, aren't they?
All we need to do is wait for our Take Profit (TP) to be reached, right? Let's observe the outcome. Price got close to our TP and then began retracing. This is the moment when traders who have not thoroughly backtested their strategies might panic and close their trades prematurely. Some may consider moving their stop loss to break even; however, our backtesting data shows that this approach does not benefit us in the long run, as price may hit the break even point and then proceed in our anticipated direction. Therefore, in such situations, we should not panic; instead, we patiently wait for either our TP or Stop Loss (SL) to be triggered.
Price returned to our entry point, and at this juncture, traders who risked more than they could afford are likely experiencing an emotional roller coaster. However, we remained undisturbed since we only risked 1% on this trade with the aim of achieving a 2% return
After 3 hours and 30 minutes, our Take Profit was triggered, and our patience paid off as we hit our target on AUDUSD, resulting in a 2% gain from a 1% risk on the trade.This trade served as an excellent illustration of the importance of patience and adherence to your trading plan. We hope you have gained some insights from this.