Ctxc now what ?
A reaction is expected within the area. It can break down and turn into IFVG, while an upward break may signal the beginning of the rise again. YTD.
Fvg
GBPJPY Analysis - SellGBPJPY Analysis Overview
1. Seasonality:
GBP: Bearish — Historical data for this time period shows GBP typically weakens.
JPY: Bullish — Seasonal trends favor JPY strength, aligning with a sell bias for GBPJPY.
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2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders):
GBP:
4-week flip indicates a Sell bias.
JPY:
4-week flip indicates a Buy bias.
Non-commercial long positions are increasing, indicating strong demand for JPY.
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3. Fundamental Analysis:
LEI (Leading Economic Indicator):
GBP: Decreasing — Suggests economic slowdown and bearish momentum for GBP.
JPY: Range — Neutral economic outlook, but overall supportive of its safe-haven appeal.
Endogenous Factors:
GBP: Decreasing — Internal economic conditions are weakening, favoring a sell bias.
JPY: Increasing — Positive domestic factors support JPY strength.
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4. Exogenous Factors:
GBPJPY:
Classified as a Strong Sell due to broader external influences such as global risk aversion and JPY's safe-haven demand.
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5. Technical Analysis:
On the 4-hour chart:
There is a visible order block and a fair value gap (FVG) in the price structure.
The price has retraced to 50% of the order block, presenting a favorable opportunity to enter a short position.
Confluence from bearish market structure and resistance zone further validates the sell setup.
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Bias: Strong Sell
Based on seasonality, COT data, fundamentals, exogenous influences, and technical analysis, GBPJPY is poised for a significant downside move. Look for selling opportunities at or near the current resistance levels within the order block.
BTC DOMINANCE- BEARISH AFLife and Trading: Decisions Shape Outcomes
Life can shift dramatically in a single day—either for the better or worse. Everything boils down to the decisions you make, whether in heated moments or calm reflection. When chaos and panic dominate, your best refuge lies in creativity, knowledge and balls.
During the recent shakeout, I stayed silent—not because I lacked an opinion, but because moments like these require clarity. It’s like a car crash—you first ensure your safety before analyzing the damage. So, I distanced myself from the noise and dove deep into the charts.
Key Observations: Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin dominance, a critical indicator during altcoin crashes, was rising but met resistance at significant levels. Bearish arguments at that time included:
Weekly Bearish FVG respected
Daily Bearish FVG respected
Trendline retest confirming the break
Current Bearish Arguments:
PMH & PML respected
PWH & PWL respected
Weekly and Daily Bearish FVG respected
4H swing highs/lows respected
4H Bearish FVG respected
Strategy:
Given these signals, it’s tempting to go all-in on altcoins. However, I anticipate a ranging market until Christmas, followed by a dip below the 50% level—a precursor to a true altcoin bull market.
Be cautious: I expect another shakeout around December 18 or 23, where I plan to take significant positions. Always have a clear entry and exit plan to navigate these volatile waters.
Follow me to stay updated, and remember—this market rewards patience and preparation.
God bless you.
-Jay
ATOM- BULLISH MOMENTUMEyeing Altcoins Near Their March 2024 Highs
BINANCE:ATOMUSDT
I focus on setups where altcoins are approaching their potential March 2024 peaks. These trades are straightforward in strategy but challenging emotionally, as we can expect turbulence and liquidation cascades along the way.
Bullish Arguments
PMH being disrespected
PML being disrespected
PWH being disrespected
PWL being disrespected
PDL being disrespected
PDH being disrespected
Bearish Arguments:
4H swing high being respected
4H swing low being respected
Trade Management
I keep a tight SL to protect capital in case the market hunts liquidity. If stopped out, I’ll reassess and re-enter if price action confirms. TP is around the March 2024 zone, but partial profits may be taken earlier.
A Word of Caution
As futures trading intensifies, we’ll encounter frequent liquidation cascades and stop hunts. This is where discipline and resilience truly matter. The hardest phase starts now.
Trade wisely, stay focused, and take care.
POLKADOT - Strategic Patience for the Next MovePolkadot: Strategic Patience for the Next Move
I've been holding Polkadot since $5.82 and still have my trade open. While I haven’t taken profits yet, this time I plan to secure gains once it approaches $10 again, as I anticipate a correction around December 18th. This pullback could last until December 23rd, where I aim to significantly increase my position.
📈 Scalping Opportunities:
For now, patience is key. However, scalpers will find plenty of opportunities leading up to December 17–18. Be vigilant during those dates, as volatility may spike.
💡 Swing Trading Insight:
Any swing trades entered on December 23rd or the early hours of the 24th could offer exceptional returns.
⚠️ Key Advice:
Always stick to your plan.
Don’t let greed cloud your judgment—secure partial profits to maintain liquidity.
From January onward, the market's psychological and analytical demands will increase. Be prepared and don’t get distracted by noise.
🔑 Closing Thoughts:
This market rewards discipline and foresight. Stay sharp, stay humble, and remember: the best opportunities often come to those who are patient and prepared.
May your trades be fruitful.
God bless you.
—Jay
ETHEREUM - BULLISH AFEthereum: A Technical Masterpiece with a Psychological Challenge
Ethereum's price action showcases remarkable technical precision. However, the real test lies in managing emotions: impatience and impulsive decisions often lead traders to quick losses.
📈 Projection:
Expect a steady climb toward $4,300 until around December 17–18. At that point, a correction of -15% to -30% is likely, though the exact scale will depend on market conditions.
📅 Key Date:
By December 23, ensure your positions are set. As the market evolves, navigating increased difficulty will require discipline—this phase is not for the unprepared.
📊 Comparison:
The current price movement mirrors Ethereum’s 2020 trend, proving that while history doesn’t repeat, it often rhymes.
⚠️ Plan Ahead:
Approach the market with a clear strategy. Maintain well-defined entry and exit plans, and avoid emotional decision-making. Recklessness has no place here.
🚀 Looking Ahead:
January promises explosive growth, likely peaking around mid-month. This period demands focus and resilience—those who stay disciplined stand to benefit the most.
💡 Takeaway:
Ethereum’s journey is more than just price action; it’s a test of patience and strategy. Stick to your plan, trust the process, and let the market work for you.
💼 Upcoming Trade:
I’m about to open a new trade, which I’ll share with you here—just like the one I posted at $3,100. Now’s the time to make money and stay laser-focused. Don’t hesitate to follow me and keep an eye out for updates!
Stay sharp, stay grounded, and may the odds be in your favor.
God bless you.
—Jay
Ethereum time to shine-Swing trading LONGEthereum: Your Time to Shine
BINANCE:ETHUSDT
Ethereum, it’s your moment. You’re in a prime setup for traders, where psychology is playing a crucial role. As Bitcoin consolidates sideways, Ethereum is retesting a key zone, preparing for what could be its true breakout.
This is your time to shine.
Remember, this is not financial advice. Always use a responsible risk management strategy. My trade is targeting the ATH zone, where I plan to take profits and wait for a similar setup to reposition myself strategically
Trading EURUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 10/12/2024Yesterday, we got a trading setup on EURUSD. This came after a week of little activity with the Judas Swing strategy, where we executed just one trade. Fortunately, that trade turned out to be a winner, yielding a 2% gain to conclude the week. It felt great to finally get some activity with the strategy earlier in the week with EURUSD, and we plan to guide you through the trading day's events.
We aim to arrive at our trading desk five minutes before the trading session starts (08:30 EST), to ensure we're fully prepared for the session. The session has finally begun, and a crucial aspect of this strategy is establishing a trading bias for the session. This involves waiting for a sweep of liquidity at either the high or low of the trading zone. Typically, a sweep of liquidity occurs a few minutes into the session; however, this time it was delayed. Despite this, we didn't rush into any trades. Instead, we waited patiently and eventually got a sweep of liquidity on the sell side, indicating that in this session, we should be on the lookout for potential buying opportunities.
Once the liquidity sweep requirement is complete, the next step is a break of structure to the buy side to confirm our bias for the session. Keep in mind, all this needs to occur before 11:00 EST. Once the break of structure to the buy side occurred, it was followed by a retrace into the Fair Value Gap formed by the subsequent candle, indicating that all the criteria on our entry checklist were satisfied.
We executed our trade after meeting all our criteria. Initially, we saw profits for the first five minutes, but then a large bearish marubozu candle appeared, plunging us into a significant drawdown. This exemplifies why we avoid tight stop losses and maintain a minimum stop loss requirement of 10 pips.
Upon reviewing the position again, we noticed that the trade had begun to move in our favor. However, since the objective has not yet been met, we must wait for one of two outcomes: either our stop loss is triggered or our take profit is reached
Our patience finally paid off when our trade, where we risked just 1% of our capital, yielded a rewarding 2% return. This trade was a testament to the importance of sticking to your trading plan and waiting for the right setup, rather than chasing trades out of impatience
Gold Idea - 09/12/2024This plan is for Monday, but as we know, Mondays tend to have more volatile market movements. This plan might not work well in such scenarios.
This plan is specifically designed for Mondays with a sideways market only.
Intraday Levels For NQ 12/5Intraday levels for NQ
- 21,480-21,500 as a current level of support
- 21,517-21,525 as overhead support
- 21,560-21,575 as an ATH range containing a Fib target
STELLAR BULLISH MOMENTUM-XLMCRYPTO:XLMUSD
XLM Continuation Rally: An Analysis
Bullish Arguments:
PMH (Previous Monthly High) disrespected
PML (Previous Monthly Low) disrespected
Weekly Bullish FVG respected
PWL (Previous Weekly Low) disrespected
PWH (Previous Weekly High) disrespected
PDL (Previous Daily Low) disrespected
4H swing low disrespected
4H Bullish FVG respected
Bearish Arguments:
PDH (Previous Daily High) respected
4H swing high respected
Bullish 81.82%- Bearish 18.18%
Trade Management:
This setup involves high risk and requires close monitoring of price action. Use a tight stop-loss (SL) to manage risk, and aim for a take-profit (TP) near the 2021 ATH zone. Staying alert to market movements is critical for this trade
FXS- BULLISH MOMENTUMClear Path for Long Positions Until January 20th
We have a green light to focus on long setups leading up to January 20th, but emotional Discipline is critical—avoid letting euphoria or emotional demons dictate your decisions.
BINANCE:FXSUSDT is a standout candidate for a strong rally based on my criteria:
Monthly and Weekly Structure supported by FVG (Fair Value Gaps).
PMH and PML (Previous Monthly High/Low) being disrespected.
PWH and PWL (Previous Weekly High/Low) being disrespected.
PDH and PDL (Previous Daily High/Low) being disrespected.
4H Swing Highs and Lows also being disrespected.
At this moment, I see no valid reasons to adopt a bearish stance. The primary risk lies in potential liquidity spikes. To mitigate this, a solid Stop Loss is essential to safeguard your position and allow for re-entry if price action justifies it.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 9.53
Stay focused and protect your trades.
EURUSD-TIME FOR REVERSAL- SWING TRADEReversal Opportunity Amid a Bearish Bias
FX:EURUSD
The EUR/USD is showing potential for a reversal, although the overall probabilities remain bearish. This setup offers an opportunity with a possible 3RR.
Trade Management:
Today's FED meeting could cause sharp and unexpected market movements. It’s crucial to keep a tight SL to protect against liquidity hunts, especially near the November PML wick. The TP is set at the bearish FVA, but if the price reaches this area, it could signal a higher probability of continued upside.
Stay cautious and adapt to market conditions. Manage your risk and remember: capital preservation comes first.
POLKADOT- FUEL FOR A RALLYThe fuel is loaded, the engines are running-this rally is about to explode.
BINANCE:DOTUSDT
Let's get higher this week POLKADOTPolkadot: Rising from the Ashes
BINANCE:DOTUSDT
Polkadot appears to be breaking free from its prolonged downturn. Comparing to Cardano, its about time to reach the fibonacci 1.62 and the buyside liquidity. The charts suggest strong bullish potential, but it’s crucial to stay grounded—corrections are part of the game. In my view, a significant pullback may happen when geopolitical events, such as TRUMP's potential return to the White House, create waves across the markets.
For now, the focus should be on crypto over the coming weeks. Avoid over-leveraging or taking excessive risks. Remember, the market will always present opportunities—it's often your mind that gets in the way. Discipline is key: master your fears by following your trading plan without compromise.
Success isn’t about how much you make in one trade; it’s about consistently executing a solid plan. Over time, this approach allows you to grow your capital as if you’re your own bank. Stay committed, keep learning, and protect your mental clarity by managing risk wisely.
I currently have an active trade on Polkadot and am holding steady.
Let’s see how this plays out!
FANTOM BULLISH-POTENTIAL 6.39RRFantom (FTM): A Bullish Opportunity with Controlled Risk
BINANCE:FTMUSDT
The current price action of Fantom presents an attractive setup for taking calculated risks. Here are the key bullish arguments supporting this perspective:
Previous Monthly Low (PML - November): Disrespected, signaling strength.
Previous Monthly High (PMH): Disrespected, further affirming bullish momentum.
Monthly Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG): Holding so far; confirmation expected by early Sunday morning.
Previous Weekly High (PWH): Disrespected.
Previous Weekly Low (PWL): Disrespected.
Daily Bullish FVG: Being respected, showing demand at this level.
4H Swing High: Disrespected.
4H Swing Low: Disrespected.
Bearish Arguments:
Previous Daily High (PDH): Respected, a minor resistance to watch.
Previous Daily Low (PDL): Respected.
Trade Management:
Stop Loss (SL): $0.84–$0.82
Take Profit (TP): $1.90–$1.88
Entry Zone: $0.9951–$0.9683
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RR): 6.39
I am using Quantfury to manage this trade, a platform I find effective for precise execution.
Final Thoughts: The market appears poised for further upside, but stay disciplined and avoid being influenced by noise. The next five months are crucial for crypto, requiring full focus and adherence to your own strategies. Remember, every lesson comes from experience, not just from external opinions.
Stay patient, trade smart, and blessings to all!
gbpjpy next moveAs can be seen, a bear flag has also formed. The top of this flag corresponds to the filling of the FVG. In the short term, I expect a further decline to hit the monthly liquidity. After this, I anticipate an upward movement fueled by the momentum from the liquidity grab. At one of the potential liquidity points on the 4H timeframe, there will likely be a break of structure, hopefully forming a new FVG, allowing us to take a significant short position targeting 180,000, where another liquidity grab could occur.
EURJPY | 30M | TECHNICAL CHART |I have prepared a FX:EURJPY analysis for all of you. I have marked my target and stop-loss levels on the chart. Thanks to everyone who likes and supports my work. I work hard for you here and I will never give up on you.
We will continue to win together. All I ask is that you show your support with a like.
GBPJPY daily/montly liqOn the chart with monthly candles, a liquidity grab can be seen at the last higher low (HL). On the daily timeframe, you can observe that there has already been a break of structure and a test of a fair value gap (FVG). Therefore, the expectation is for further decline. For this, I will conduct an analysis on a smaller timeframe.
SELL XAUUSD on ignore LevelWhen Price goes up to Ignore level and goes down with displacement I will sell and the target at least midnight NY.
Sell XAUUSD Sell XAUUSD when Price Goes Up Between 2645.19 to 2650.11
1.Here I have box that is my Optimal Trade Entry
2.Ignore level
when price rally up to this box and reduce with displacement I open short on XAUUSD and the first target is 2631.20 (NY Midnight) and the second Target is the low of the day.
Trading EURUSD this week | Judas Swing Strategy 25-27/11/2024The Judas Swing strategy has recently seen a surge in activity. After experiencing a week of losses, it rebounded last week with a 1% gain. This week appears promising, as a setup emerged on Monday, positioning us to take advantage of the opportunity that presented itself
After observing a sweep of liquidity at the high of the trading zone, we shifted our focus to look for potential selling opportunities. However, to capitalize on a clear setup, we require a break of structure to the sell side. This price leg must create a Fair Value Gap (FVG), and a retracement into this FVG will assist us in securing an entry point for the trade. At 10:30 EST, all the criteria on our entry checklist were met, allowing us to proceed with the trade.
Upon entering this trade, we experienced minimal drawdown, which is the ideal scenario every trader seeks. Sniper entries are highly coveted, but it's important to recognize that they won't occur with every trade. Therefore, it's essential for traders to allow their trades sufficient space to fluctuate and to place their stop-loss at a point where, if triggered, it signifies the invalidation of the trade setup
We were in this trade for just 1 hour and 15 minutes, and with only a 1% risk, it yielded a 2% return for the day
On Tuesday, we returned to scout for trading setups, but unfortunately, none emerged that matched the Judas swing strategy, so we took no action. Notice what we did? Nothing. And why? Because no trade setup fulfilled the criteria on our checklist, and we didn't force any trades. Whenever a trade doesn't meet your checklist requirements, avoid forcing a trade. The likelihood of regretting that decision is high, and even if a forced trade happens to win, it means you're developing a bad habit that could haunt you later on
We showed up on Wednesday to scout for trades again and late in the session a setup started forming. We got a sell bias early but getting a confirmation for sell trade took forever to form, but when we got that confirmation we didn't hesitate to take this trade. We entered a sell for this trade setting our Stop loss at 1.05788 and our TP at 1.05383
After executing the trade, the subsequent bullish candle, which was a bullish marubozu, went straight to our stop loss and then reversed in our intended direction. However, since our stop loss was triggered, it marked the end of our trading day. According to our rules, we do not re-enter the trade. We accept the 1% loss with dignity and prepare to trade another day. This loss means that we are now only 1% in profit on EURUSD for the trading period from November 25th to 27th.
Silver Bullet Strategy EURUSD USDCAD AUDUSD | 26/11/2024Yesterday served as a classic example of the importance of risk management in every trader's system. We initiated three trades across three different currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD) and plan to provide a detailed breakdown of each trade, including the outcomes.
We began scouting for potential setups that matched our entry criteria at 10:00 EST. By 10:30 EST, a FVG had developed on GBPUSD, indicating potential selling opportunities during this trading session. All that remained was to wait for a retracement into the created FVG to secure an entry point for the trade
The subsequent five-minute candle entered the Fair Value Gap (FVG) on GBPUSD, indicating that we could execute our trade upon its closure. Simultaneously, we were exploring additional trading opportunities across various currency pairs. It was then that we observed the emergence of a FVG on USDCAD, necessitating a wait for a retracement into the FVG before executing a trade. We executed the trade on GBPUSD while awaiting confirmation to enter the USDCAD position.
The USDCAD setup provided an entry confirmation, indicating that we would have two trades active during this session. Additionally, the session was still ongoing when we observed that another EURUSD setup was approaching the fulfillment of our entry criteria.
Immediately after initiating the trades on GBPUSD and USDCAD, we observed a significant drawdown on both. This was due to a large bearish marubozu candle printing on the USDCAD, while the GBPUSD experienced two successive bullish candles, casting both positions in an unfavorable light. While all this was happening the setup on EURUSD had fulfilled all the requirements on our checklist so we had to execute that trade as well.
Our USDCAD position hit the stop loss, and shortly after, our GBPUSD position also reached the stop loss, resulting in a 2% reduction of our trading account for the day. This leaves us with just one active position on EURUSD.
Being in such a position wouldn't be easy to bare if we hadn't managed risk properly. We entered these trades risking only 1% per trade and had already accepted the potential outcomes, which greatly diminished any emotional attachment to these trades. With that in mind, the EURUSD position began moving in our desired direction, which was a considerable relief after two out of three trades had reached the stop-loss point
We patiently waited, and this time our patience paid off when our EURUSD position hit the take profit (TP) for a 2% gain. Thus, for the day, we experienced two losses and a win, but with effective risk management, our win offset both losses, and we broke even for the day. Do you see the importance of ensuring your wins outweigh your losses? We experienced just one win and two losses, yet our single win was more significant that it offset all the losses we had for the day
