Silver Bullet Strategy EURUSD AUDUSD | 03/12/2024Trading the Silver Bullet strategy was tough yesterday. While many may only discuss the wins associated with their trading strategies, we encountered some losses yesterday. We entered two trades on two major currency pairs (EURUSD, AUDUSD) and aim to walk you through what happened during our trading session using the Silver Bullet strategy.
At 10:00 EST, we began scouting for potential trading setups, as this marks the beginning of the Silver Bullet window, which concludes at 11:00 EST. By 10:20 EST, a Fair Value Gap (FVG) had formed on the EURUSD currency pair, presenting us with a sell bias and directing our attention to potential selling opportunities in EURUSD for the current trading session. Upon reviewing AUDUSD, we observed that an FVG had also formed at 10:20 EST, further indicating a sell bias for the currency pair.
Once we establish a bias, we typically wait for a retracement into the formed FVG and only execute the trade after the candle that enters the FVG has closed. This step is crucial on our checklist because our backtesting revealed scenarios where the candle entering the FVG could proceed to hit the stop loss. This check helps us avoid entering trades under such conditions. Meanwhile, those who use limit orders may find themselves at a disadvantage in these situations. After a 20-minute wait following the formation of the FVG, we identified a trade on EURUSD that satisfied all the criteria on our checklist, and without hesitation, we proceeded to execute the trade.
In this trade, since the high of candle number 1 from the entry price is approximately 7 pips, which does not satisfy the minimum stop loss requirement, we adjust it to a 10 pips stop loss, our minimum threshold. This rule ensures the trade has sufficient room to fluctuate. Immediately after executing the EURUSD trade, we identified another opportunity with AUDUSD that met all the criteria on our checklist. As it fulfilled the necessary requirements, we proceeded without hesitation to execute the trade.
Please be aware that we risk 1% of our trading account on each trade. This level of risk is acceptable for us, as it's an amount we're comfortable with potentially losing, thus preventing emotional attachment to the trades. Ten minutes after initiating a sell position on EURUSD, our trade reached the stop loss, resulting in a 1% loss for the day. Consequently, we are left with our sell position on AUDUSD.
After incurring a loss on EURUSD, we examined the AUDUSD position and found that this trade was also facing a drawdown. Did we experience any emotions upon realizing we might lose 2% that day? No, because we had already accepted the risk and were prepared for any outcome, whether it was a win or a loss. We were aware that the strategy's win rate was around 48%, indicating that losses are a part of the process. However, with a positive risk-to-reward ratio, our wins are expected to outweigh the losses.
While awaiting the outcome of the AUDUSD trade, we noticed a setup on USDCAD where a Fair Value Gap (FVG) had formed. However, upon closer inspection, we realized it materialized exactly at 11:00 EST. This timing meant we couldn't engage in the trade, as our checklist mandates that trades must be executed before 11:00 EST, thus invalidating this setup. It's important to note our discipline here; despite the temptation, we didn't enter another trade out of revenge. Instead, we let it pass because it failed to meet certain criteria on our checklist. Discipline is a crucial quality of a successful trader and should never be underestimated.
Upon reviewing the AUDUSD trade once more, we observed that it was no longer in a drawdown; instead, the trade had returned to our entry price. Consequently, there was no action required other than to allow the trade to proceed as it will
After being in the trade for an hour and 10 minutes, the AUDUSD position hit the stop loss, putting us down 2% for the day. Indeed, we took two losses and it's likely we'll face more, as that is the nature of trading. It's normal to encounter multiple losses throughout your trading career, and it's crucial not to let them discourage you. Ensure that any strategy you use has been thoroughly backtested and has the data to support its long-term profitability. Also, make certain that your wins consistently exceed your losses, so that during a losing streak, just a few wins can compensate for the losses.
