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Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 02/02/16The outlook for EUR / USD: Eurodollar constantly moving in a tight trading range that has lasted a good few weeks. On Monday, despite increases in the level around 1.09, we have not received any signals that may indicate clearly on the future direction in the medium term. Therefore, I repeat, what I said earlier. If you happen to break the resistance level at 1.0945, it will open the way to higher price levels. First, the demand will be forced to deal with resistance area at 1.0970-90. Otherwise, supply, beating 1,08-1,0810 level support, should lead to declines in around 1.0715. Looking at the charts with larger intervals, we can conclude that it is close to breaking point. If Tuesday not manage to overcome the 1.09 level and demand will not lead to increases towards 1.0945, the supply should take the lead and push the exchange rate towards support at 1.08.
by RobertPapon
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Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (01.02-05.02)The analysis for EUR / USD pair on Monday: Last week, once again, there is an attempt to break the level 1.0945. Demand side managed to only test the strong resistance zone 1,0970-90 from which rebounded quite dynamically. Still stuck trading sideways between 1.0945 1,08- (unsuccessful wybiciami in the vicinity of 1,0970-90). Nearby hours should bring correction of recent declines attempt (around 1,0845-75). Then you can return towards 1.08 or even 1.0778 area. Since defense of these support levels will depend discussed the future direction of the currency pair. Assuming that the supply side will lead to a break in / at levels Eurodollar should direct towards lower price levels. I refer to 1,0710-15 level (lows from early January). At this level, it would be possible rebound inheritance and derivation of a larger correction. If demand defense is an important support at 1.08, it will be possible to return to the vicinity of 1.09, the fracture will lead to growth toward 1.0945 and higher. In my opinion, a variant of correction of recent increases and another test of 1.08 is the preferred option. In this case, it may lead to further declines.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 01/28/16The outlook for EUR / USD: On Wednesday, there was an attempt to breach the resistance at 1.09 but without success. At the moment there has been a breaking of the downward channel, but it could be another false breakout. Therefore, we should consider the analysis of two ways. If you believe that the breakout is actually in the coming hours, the course should turn around in the vicinity of the upper limit of the channel (1.0845) and the demand side will head back toward the 1.09 level and 1.0945. (There is a possibility that further increases will occur from the current price level, towards the level of 1.0945). Please note that we are still in sideways and just beat the 1.0945 level, will indicate the direction in the medium term. Alternative Version assumes that Wednesday's killing was a trap, and once again the supply side will lead to a return to the interior of the channel. In this case, the aim seems to be a level of 1.08 in case of his defeat support at 1.0778.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 01/27/16Before us the most important figure of this week due to a Fed meeting. Along with the writings of the meeting, the Federal Reserve will release its decision on interest rates. Members of the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged and certainly will refer to external factors that may affect the pace of raising interest rates in the future. Whereas falling oil prices and the situation in China, it seems probable that the Fed members will reject the fast pace of interest rate increases. After the recent market turmoil, analysts assume the next hike until June. The outlook for EUR / USD: The technical situation on the main currency pair remained virtually unchanged. Eurodollar has long been moving sideways, waiting for a signal for further direction. According to me the signal to stronger traffic can be records of the meeting of the Fed. If there is a break through 1.0945 level demand will have an open path to higher price levels. In this case are possible increases in the vicinity 1,0980-90 or even 1,1025-50. In the second case, if the supply will lead to break support at 1.08 and 1.0778 supply should head for the support 1,0680-1,0715. At this level, it will be possible rebound declines. In my opinion, the downward variant is more likely.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (25.01-29.01)Analysis EUR / USD: In recent days last week, the supply has led to declines, setting new minimum. Currently, the course is located around support at 1.08. This means that once again returned to the channel of the drop. Nearby hours should lead to a correction of the recent declines, towards level 1.0840 (the upper limit of the channel). Bearing in mind the words of Mario Draghi and possible future action by the ECB, the option of further declines seem to be more likely. This means that after the correction awaits us next test support at 1.08, which may fall out positively for supply. In this case, it will open the way toward lower price levels. The aim is for the supply of aids zone between 1,0680-1,0715. At this level, it will be possible rebound declines. Otherwise, if the start of the week will bring gains over 1.0840 then the demand will be driven toward the 1.09 level. Considering the Eurodollar from the purely technical, we can conclude that we are in a sideways direction and further decides to break the support at 1.08 and resistance level at 1.0945. In my opinion, a variant of the defeat of support at 1.08 seems more likely
by RobertPapon
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Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 01/20/16Analysis EUR / USD: Not much has changed for the eurodolarze during the first session of this week. All the time we move sideways. On Tuesday afternoon, but there has been a growth in demand has not led to a significant break the resistance level at 1.0945. In my opinion any there, they may be subdued anticipation of Thursday's ECB meeting. It is very likely that the greater the upward or downward impulse may take place during Thursday's conference, the ECB president. Although still in the game it is a variant of growth, which involves breaking the resistance level at 1.0945. This in turn will pave the way towards the next resistance levels are located at 1.0971 and 1,0980-90. Otherwise once again we turn back to the south, towards the recent support levels at levels 1.0860 / 1.0847 and 1,08-1,0810. If there has been a breach of the last level, the target for the supply side will correct support levels between 1,0680-1,0715.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (18.01-22.01)Defence support at 1.09 leads to an increase in resistance towards 1.0945 and 1.0987. 1.09 If the support is broken, the supply will lead to declines in around 1.0847 and 1,08-1,0810 In summary analysis should remember that regardless of the data that will be announced early in the week, the effect of supply and demand may be limited because of the anticipation related to Thursday's conference of the President of the ECB. In my opinion, the occurrence of Mario Draghi, can cause strong movements in the currency pair and this should be taken into account in their investment strategy.
by RobertPapon
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Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 15/01/16During the Thursday session, we witnessed the failed attack on the resistance level of 1.0945. The supply side decisively taken the lead and consequently led to return inside the channel succession. Minimum fell below Thursday's opening at 1.0834. Ahead of us the last session of the week, which may give an answer as to the further direction of EURUSD in the medium term. The economic calendar is full of many interesting reading but the most important of which will flow from the US. The market will be live data on retail sales and core retail sales. Especially important for investors will read the producer price index (PPI), which acts as prognostic and may signal subsequent changes in readings of consumer inflation (CPI). The outlook for EUR / USD: The situation on the currency pair once again has not changed, despite the defense support of 1.08 and another unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.0945 level. The market certainly waits for a pulse and for me the signal may be afternoon data from the US. Therefore, I do not think there may be a decision before 14:30. At the moment we are in sideways, limited support for 1,08-1,0810 and resistance at 1.0945. If my assumptions are correct, we should be prepared for stronger moves after data from the US. As discussed in previous reports, breaking the 1.0945 level (peaks 7 and 11 January), will open the way toward 1.0971 and 1,0980-90. In turn, defeat-level support 1,08-1,0810, will direct toward lower price levels. The aim in this case, be a zone aids at levels 1,0680-1,0715.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 14/01/16Wednesday's session took place under the dictation of the demand side, which in the first part of the day we defend support at 1,08-1,0810. Then, as expected, demand led the counterattack towards the upper limit of the downward channel. Maximum recorded at the level of 1.0883. Thursday is another day where we do not have too many macro data. In the afternoon it will be presented the minutes of the meetings of the ECB and the price indices of import and export from the United States. In contrast, the US Department of Labor will present data on the pre-declared unemployed. The outlook for EUR / USD: The situation in the eurodolarze slowly begins to clarify and according to my previous assumptions, demand took the initiative after the defense support at 1,08-1,0810. Accordingly, in the next few hours, the upward movement should continue. The aim for the demand side should be the level of 1.09 (upper limit of the channel) and the rest of his defeat. Another natural resistance level will be 1.0945 (peaks 7 and 11 January), whose defeat will open the way toward 1.0971 and 1,0980-90. Nearby hours should verify the strength of the demand side and in my opinion, we should not go below 1.0847 (Monday minimum). In an alternative version supply may lead to a return to Wednesday's lows (support 1,08-1,0810), but at the moment, it is not for me option under consideration.
Long
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 01/12/16The situation in the most important currency pair failed despite breaking above resistance at the 1.0940 level has not changed. Demand side only reached the level 1.0971 and then supply systematically pushed euro-dollar exchange rate to lower price levels. Minimum fell to 1.0847 level. On Tuesday, we do not have any data on the calendar macroeconomic and this means that the EUR / USD can be considered only from the purely technical. Therefore, we should keep in mind that the demand side once again will have a chance of defense support, at 1,08-1,0810. If this test is positive, we may see a return in around the upper limit of the downward channel. At present they are around the level of 1.0925. (Keep in mind that despite a failed clearance, the situation of variant growth has not been negated). In the case of another breaking upside, the next resistance levels are 1.0945 (maximum of 7 January), 1.0971 (maximum 11 January), and 1,0980-90 (peak at the beginning and the end of December). In a more optimistic version, the growth may reach the next resistance located in the area of 1,1025-60 (casings candles, and peaks from 9-15 December last year). In an alternative version the demand side will not defend 1,08-1,0810 support level which will result in declines, in the vicinity of the lower limit of the downward channel. The objective in this case will zone support levels between 1,0680-1,0715.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (14.12-18.12)Ahead of us the most important week of the year due to a Fed that at the next meeting (15-16 December), has decided to commence a series of increases in interest rates and present to forecast further rises in 2016. Investors in particular will await a press conference, Janet Yellen, which will take place 30 minutes after the Fed meeting. At the moment, the chances of an interest rate hike in the US amounts to 79.4%, while the market expects another two hikes in 2016. Calendar for next week is as extremely interesting. In the first part of the week the markets attention will be paid to the reading of core inflation in the US. With Germany will flow information concerning the ZEW economic mood. In the middle of the week we will know the whole pack PMI for the euro zone. From the United States will flow data on building permits and PMI reading for the industry. In the second part of the week we will know the Ifo business sentiment index and the industrial index by the Fed in Philadelphia. The next and final reading associated with the pair EUR / USD will be reading the PMI for services in the US. The outlook for EUR / USD: Last week there was the establishment of a double peak at 1,1030-41, which from a technical point of view should support the supply side. In the first part of the week (the Fed), the eurodollar rate should head south toward support at 1.0930 and 1.09. If you happen to break the 1.09 level of supply will head towards support levels at levels 1,0795-1,0810. On Wednesday, investors will focus on the communication of the Fed meeting, which does not necessarily imply the fast pace of monetary policy tightening in 2016, which could disappoint markets. The Fed certainly will take into account external stimuli and the possible consequences, which may suggest that further rate hikes will be flat and elongated over time. Therefore, we may be witnessing strong growth. in the direction of the last maxima at 1,1030-41. Further demand could lead to wywindowania course around the resistance level of 1.1140 (peak of 23 October).
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 02/10/15During Thursday's session we have witnessed, gave attacking the demand side. From the daily minimum (1.1136), demand led to growth in the area around support levels, noting 1,12-1,1215 high of 1.1208. Largely thanks to Thursday's gains were weaker economic data from the US. (Applications for unemployment benefits were at 277 thousand. Against a forecast of 270 thousand. In contrast, ISM Manufacturing index also proved to be worse than the market consensus and amounted to 50.2 against expectations of 50.6). Bringing together members of the FOMC's hawkish comments and mixed readings from the US, we can easily come to the conclusion that markets are receiving contradictory information. Forecast for Friday: At the time of writing the analysis of a currency pair is just below an important resistance zone at 1,12-1,1215. In the first part of the day did not have any relevant information in relation to the Eurodollar can move between the support and the resistance to 1.1155 at 1.12. The impetus for the movement will be stronger in the afternoon US data. Support for supply during Friday's session will be data from the US. The supply side able to once again have a chance break support at 1.1155, which will open the way toward lower price levels 1.1115 and 1,1085-90. In an alternative version much worse US data can lead to overcome the resistance zone 1,12-1,1215. Another object of the demand will be the level of 1.1240, the fracture may lead to test the level of 1.1270. In my opinion, a variant of the defense of the resistance (1,12-1,1215) and further declines toward 1.1115, is to me the more likely option. My answer: a currency pair has no fundamental basis for further growth and any, if they occur, will result from the temporary weakness of the dollar. In a broader term, the dollar should gain based on expectations of the Fed and the ECB.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (07.09-11.09)In the first part of the week, we have seen increases, which were caused by good readings from Germany and the euro zone. The strong support for the euro was also weak readings from the US. The EUR / USD made a high of 1.1333. Then, the common currency began to lose in anticipation of Thursday's Mario Draghigo conference after the ECB meeting. As expected, the ECB president did not disappoint "bears", cautioning against possible deflation in the euro zone. An additional incentive for the dollar, proved to be weaker outlook for economic growth. Mario Draghi also confirmed that the ECB is ready to do more in order to save the economic slowdown. The market took this as an opportunity to increase the scale of QE. Finally, the single currency weakened against the dollar by 0.23%, closing took place at the level of 1.1147. In the coming week, the economic calendar is not full of key readings, which could materially affect the direction of the currency pair discussed. Especially worthwhile to note on Monday on industrial production in Germany, while US markets will be closed due to Labor Day. On Tuesday we will know the German trade balance and GDP for the euro area. His speech will be a member of the Fed - N. Kacherlakota. On Thursday we get on the rate of import and export prices in the US and the preliminary reading for the unemployed. Key data this week will be announced on Friday, when we get CPI reading for Germany and Spain, and the USA will flow data on PPI and the index of consumer sentiment University of Michigan. Forecast for Monday: On Monday we can see the low liquidity in the market, due to the lack of data and a day off in the USA. In my opinion, the most likely scenario during Monday's session seems to be a lateral trend. Currently, the course is consolidating around the 1.1155 level, which may be reflected in the vicinity of 1,12-1,1240. Any increase will only be a correction of the recent declines, which should allow the supply side turn the game around the mentioned resistance. Then, the course should once again come back in around 1.1155 or lower. In an alternative version we see the recent lows test or 1,1113-28 area (peaks in late July) and minimum last week at 1.1086. You can then return at around the level of 1.1155.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 03/09/15The first part of the week was marked correction of recent declines that took place last week. On Tuesday, there was a failed attack on the resistance level of 1.1368. Demand reached only to the level of 1.1333 and then the supply has led to declines. The weakness in demand we have seen also during Wednesday's session, when the EUR / USD retreated despite weaker economic data from the US (non-farm employment change in the ADP 190K, with market consensus at 201K). On the demand side weakness may be affected by several factors. First of all, remember that on Thursday Mario Draghi will take part in a press conference after the ECB meeting, which will discuss the current economic situation and present a macroeconomic projections. It is worth mentioning that the recent problems of the Chinese economy adversely impact the entire EU economy. President of the ECB will signal whether any additional action (to increase the current QE), if a stronger slowdown in China? To summarize the above sentence, it is worth remembering that a weak recovery in the EU is far from perfect, the strong slump in China could squash them. Another reason for limiting the growth expectations of investors who are counting on heavily hawks records at the next Fed meeting, which will take place on 17 September. In this case, we can assume that a rate hike should occur within the next 6 months. On Thursday, in addition to an ECB President Mario Draghi, we will see a variety of data from Europe and the US. The outlook for EUR / USD: On Thursday, we should see the clearance of lateral trend, what is discussed currency pair. Pro downward signal may be weak data from Europe and a press conference by Mario Draghi. If you also get better data from the US, the supply should not have a problem with breaking the next support levels at levels 1.1179 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement increases of 1,1016-1,1712) and 1.1155 (minimum of 28 August). Subsequently, the next props should be 1,1113-28 area (peaks in late July). In the long-term, natural target remains 1.1016 level. In an alternative version, the currency pair will be supported by the data and the comments of the ECB President will support common currency, which will lead to strong growth. In this case, you must reckon with increases in the vicinity of the last peak at 1.1333 and 1.1368. Previously, however, demand will also have to deal with resistance at 1,1277-86. In my opinion, a variant with a predominance of decline appears to be a variant more likely.
by RobertPapon
3
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 08/27/15Thursday was another day where we could watch the appreciation of the dollar against the euro. The supply side supported by very good data from the US, no major problems overcome support at 1,1277-82 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement increases of 1,1016-1,1712). Then the supply headed for the area aids at levels 1,1180-1,1225 I presented as a goal in yesterday's report this morning. After reaching a low of 1.1202 there was profit. According to yesterday's analysis, on Friday we can get another package of data that will support the dollar. I refer to consumer inflation in Spain and Germany. These are not figures of the caliber of Thursday's readings from the US, but in my opinion it is worth going to look at them. Friday's readings may be weaker because of the falling prices of raw materials. In the event of deflation, the European Central Bank will be forced to further action. In the second part of the day we will see a series of US data. Investors will pay indicators of inflation (PCE and core PCE), which are used by the Fed to create forecasts. It will also look at the data relating to personal expenses and the index of consumer sentiment University of Michigan final. The outlook for EUR / USD: After reaching at least on the level of 1.1202, we can see a small rebound, which in my opinion should not exceed the resistance level at 1,1277-82. Then the voice should reach the supply side. The signal to stronger declines will be weaker data from Europe and better readings from the US. In this case, the first should be directed toward Thursday low at 1.1202 and then further object should be support at 1.1179 (76.8% Fibonacci growth of 1,1016-1,1712). Maximum range for supply in Friday's session seems to be a zone at levels 1,1113-28 support levels (peaks in late July). At the end of the day may be profit-taking due to the closure of part of the position before the weekend. In an alternative version Friday's data will support the euro, which will demand for a stronger rebound past declines. In this case, demand should overcome resistance at 1,1277-82 and head for higher price levels.
by RobertPapon
7
Analysis and forecast for WTI Crude OilOil is close to this year's lows 44 $ -45 $ per barrel, which should in the near future to limit further declines in prices. Nevertheless, you should remember not only the production oversupply by the OPEC area countries, which to a large extent, does not allow for the development of correction, or larger increases. Yesterday the US Department of Energy gave information on oil stocks, which fell by -4.41 million barrels against a forecast of 1.5 million. Despite reading, which is support for the demand side, we saw further declines. In addition, increases are not conducive weak readings from China, the largest buyer of crude oil. Considering crude oil from the technical analysis, we can be tempted to say that in the near future is a chance for a rebound. Indicators on all intervals indicate the extreme oversold, which should greatly weaken further declines and to support the demand side. The first goal should be around the $ 48.80 level, then at a later date, we can be tempted to increases in the vicinity of $ 51.20. In the case of any correction, you should keep in mind the fundamental data and these are not conducive to strong increases. It is worth mentioning that in the near future to fight for the market will turn to Iran, which will be able to produce up to one million barrels a month! Already, the Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh Nadmar said that this could be in November. Iran can play a key role in shaping crude oil price on world markets because of its huge deposits of oil, which are assessed currently at 9.3% of total oil reserves. This amount gives Iran the 4th place in the world.
NYMEX:CL1!
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD pair on 08.06.15On Wednesday, despite a whole series of data from Europe and the US data, we did not get a definite answer as to the future direction of the currency pair discussed. It is worth mentioning that the PMI for the euro zone's biggest economy, and for the whole euro zone were better than expected. In contrast, US data proved mixed, the reading of ADP was worse than expected, while the ISM services index surprised positively. Particularly noteworthy are data from the US, which may cool expectations on the September interest rate hikes. On Thursday, there are not many data that can show the right direction and thus the situation in the EUR / USD pair should be decided only on Friday. During the last session of the week, we will see data on changes in employment in non-agricultural sectors and the size of the unemployment rate in the United States. Forecast for Thursday: The situation at present is not clear. On Tuesday, there was a breakthrough level of 1.0916, which was the lower limit prior to consolidation. However, the declines stopped today at 1.0847 and supply ultimately led to the test zone support levels at 1,0808-31. The situation has not changed and must be examined in two ways: if tomorrow comes to overcome the resistance level at 1.0916 then we can count back toward the 1.0990 level. Otherwise, the maintenance of a resistance below 1.0916 may result in declines in around 1.0869. In the case of overcoming support, next target will be 1.0847, and at least Wednesday zone 1,0808-31 support levels. Summarizing the above facts, we can conclude that tomorrow currency pair should move up in the subsequent consolidation. So much for now you can write on the currency pair discussed. In my opinion, investors' eyes will be focused on Friday's US data that may be an impulse to determine the direction in the medium term.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD pair on 08.04.15Summary Monday: The dollar gained slightly today despite better data from Germany and the Euro zone. Data from the US were much worse than expected but did not harm the dollar. Finally, none of the parties have failed to lead to a decision, no key levels have not been punctured. Minimum today recorded at the 1.0940 level which is above the major support at 1.0916. Economic Calendar for Tuesday: 9:00 EUR Performance unemployment rate in Spain 16:00 USD factories Orders (m / m) (Jun) Forecast for Tuesday: The situation remains unchanged. The market at the moment is suspended between the support at 1.0916 (major support 1,0808-31), and resistance at 1,1113-29. Investors tomorrow do not have too much data and in turn, should not favor any side. It seems that the market will await Wednesday's data, which can outline the direction for the currency pair discussed. Therefore, we have to wait to overcome, one of the levels. If it comes to overcome the resistance level at 1,1113-29 will try to bring the market to test the level of 1.1218. Otherwise, overcome support at 1.0916 will lead to a decline in support for 1,0808-31 area.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (03.08-07.08)Summary of last week: Neither side could not take the initiative, which resulted in minimal appreciation of the euro against the dollar. The opening took place at the level of 1.0971, and closing the week slightly higher as at the level of 1.0988. On the one hand, we had information that supported the dollar (the basic contract of fixed assets and records of the FOMC, which suggested that the US economy is strong and ready for a possible interest rate hike in 2015. Partially dollar supported the statements by members of the IMF, who suggested that the International Fund Currency can not take part in the next tranche of aid for Greece). On the other hand, we know better than expected Ifo index of German and Friday's surprisingly weak US data that indicate what the truth better improvement in the labor market. However, better readings from the labor market does not go hand in hand with wage pressure, which translates into poor inflation readings. The economic calendar for next week: Monday: PMI Manufacturing indicators for individual European countries and the PMI collectively for the entire Euro zone. Then we will get data from the US: ISM and PMI; Tuesday: factory orders in the US; Wednesday: PMI services for individual European countries and the PMI for the services for the entire euro zone, further data from Europe is retail sales in the euro zone and the PMI according to Markit. Then we will change the ADP non-farm employment in the US as well as ISM and PMI for services in the US; Thursday: from Germany will flow data on factory orders. USA shows the number of declared pre unemployed; Friday: industrial production in Germany and the German trade balance. Then, in the US we will average hourly wages and the change in nonfarm employment. We will also unemployment in the US. Forecast for Monday: The currency pair after Friday's growth impulse, once again returned below the downtrend line, which is presented on the chart. At the moment there will be no settlement, which could indicate further, unequivocal direction. On the one hand, we are below the important and strong resistance of 1,1113-29, on the other hand, we are more than strong support 1.0916. It is worth mentioning that a significant level of support at the moment, is the level of 1,0808-31. Taking into account indicators and technical analysis we can conclude that the market is in equilibrium and only further macroeconomic data, they can affect the direction of the currency pair discussed. Comparing the data tomorrow in one piece, keep in mind that data from the US have a stronger meaning, due to market expectations towards the Fed. Accordingly, the market will work according to the scheme better data from Europe and the US worse will support the single currency and vice versa. In the case of strong readings from Europe and weak in the US, the market will try to address the euro towards recent highs at 1,1113-29. Only you raise this level will test the level of 1.1218. In another case comes to inheritance, because better data from the US will strengthen the dollar and the increased expectations on the September interest rate hikes. Supply should not have a problem with piercing support at 1.0916 and referral toward the next support levels at levels 1,0865-80 and 1,0808-31.
by RobertPapon
Commentary for USD / CAD.The currency pair reached last week to the resistance zone located around the level of 1.3101. Recently such high price levels we saw on July 24, and in 2008-2009. Strong gains last week were caused by poor GDP reading for Canada (-0.2% at the forecast 0.1%). It is not without significance for the Canadian dollar remain further declines in oil prices, to which the Canadian economy is strongly linked. It is also worth mentioning the good readings from the US, which always increases the chance of an interest rate hike in the US. In my opinion, may be acting out recent increases. What, then, points to a correction? 1) RSI indicates the possibility of a trend reversal (negative divergence) 2) On the weekly chart appeared candle "hangman", which is a signal of a possible change in the trend; 3) strongly sold out pus, which soon should be directed to higher price levels. At the moment, oil is trading at around 47$. Demand should lead to increases in the vicinity of 51$, which automatically will be a strong support for the Canadian dollar. Investors interested in this currency pair will surely follow in the next week, data from the US and Canada. On Monday we will know the ISM and PMI in the US. Then on Wednesday we will see US data on ISM and the PMI for the services. Important data from Canada will be announced on Friday, when it will be presented the data on the PMI unattended and the unemployment rate. Note: in case of very good data from the US, can lead to further increases. In this case, the correction starts with a higher price level. Any adjustment if it will take place, will only pause in further increases.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 30.07.15Summary Wednesday: Today most of the day the market behaved fairly stable waiting for the FOMC notes. To greater volatility occurred after the announcement notes. The currency pair after breaking the resistance level at around 1.1065 eventually turned south, breaking the 1.10 level. At the moment, the minimum recorded in the second support around 1.0966. The Fed today confirmed that it is ready to raise interest rates. Reach them most likely in September. The Fed statement confirmed moderate economic growth and a steady improvement in the labor market and reducing unemployment. Inflation is still below expectations, but should in the medium term aim objective of 2%. Economic calendar for Thursday: 9:00 EUR in Spain CPI (y / y) (Jul) 9:00 EUR Spain's GDP (q / q) (Q2) 9:00 EUR HICP in Spain (y / y) (Jul) 9:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (Jul) 9:55 EUR German unemployment rate (Jul) 10:00 EUR ECB's Economic Bulletin 14:00 EUR German CPI (m / m) (Jul) 14:30 USD GDP (q / q) (Q2) 14:30 USD GDP deflator (q / q) 14:30 USD ascendant declared unemployed Tomorrow we have a very important US data namely the GDP for the second quarter. Investors certainly will expect better readings which should reinforce expectations for a quick increase in interest rates in September. Also noteworthy data on German unemployment change which will give the answer in what condition is the German economy, given the recent turmoil with Greece. Forecast for Thursday: Yesterday the market back below the downtrend and today repelled from the resistance level at 1.1065 and there was a further decline. Support for the supply of the FOMC are records that suggest possible rate hike in September. The preferred option tomorrow, it will be a variant with a predominance of declines. Market after the defeat of support at 1,0966-69 (50% fibo level drops 1,1218-1,0808), should direct towards the next support level of 1.0916 that is. Lots of tomorrow will depend on macroeconomic data from the US. Every good data will support the dollar and confirm the thesis of the rise in interest rates. Otherwise, if we know the good data from Germany and the US worse possible will increase the area of 1.1065 and 1.1129 levels. Note: The market certainly will assume the September term and this should support the dollar in a wider horizon. It is a possible strengthening of the dollar in August as an attempt to discounting and overtaking facts.
by RobertPapon
2
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 07.29.15Summary Tuesday: Strengthening of the dollar today was due to profit-taking after reaching yesterday's highs at 1.1129. Additional support for supply was dodarcie to the trend line drawn on the tops of 29 June and 10 July. Today also begins a two-day Fed meeting at which decisions may be adopted about interest rate hikes. Market expectations assume increases in the September deadline. Minimum recorded at the level of 1.1021. Economic calendar for Wednesday: 8:00 EUR GfK consumer climate in Germany (Aug) 16:00 USD Sale of real estate in progress (m / m) (Jun) 20:00 USD FOMC Statement Tomorrow, the calendar does not have too much data but the most important figure of the day will be the FOMC meeting records that may point the way for the dollar in the coming months. Members of the Fed suggested several times recently that there is a chance to raise interest rates (0.35%?). Mystery remains a term in September. If the deadline will be pushed during the euro will gain. To sum up this year's macroeconomic data from the US, we can conclude that the US economy is worse moments behind him and after a weak first quarter, other data were in line or better than expected. It is worth noting that the project assumed the Fed macroeconomic developments. In addition, it is worth recalling recent statements by Janet Yellen, who confirmed in their speeches that the US economy is ready for the next step which is the rise in interest rates. The question at the moment is whether the increase will take place in September or until late autumn? The forecast for Wednesday: On the currency pair EUR / USD has today been reversed and return below the downtrend line. Supply led to a break of support at 1.1065 and then remained below this level. It looks like that: yesterday's breakout was false and a variant of the ongoing correction is still valid. However, tomorrow we will know the Fed's economic projections, which significantly affect the currency pair. Taking this into account, do not suggest to tomorrow only technical analysis. Accordingly, analysis of tomorrow can be considered in two aspects: The first option involves rapid increase in interest rates (September?). Such information greatly strengthen the dollar and in a sense is consistent with the assumptions of investors. In this case, no problem will break the supply of further support to 1.1029 / 1.0969 / 1.0916 / 1,0865-80. An increase in interest rates will affect the strengthening of the dollar in the broad market and target for EUR / USD will be this year's lows 1.0456. Earlier, the market will have to deal with a zone of support levels at 1,0808-31. The second variant: the Fed gave at the time of interest rate hikes, which automatically supports the common currency. Here, demand should have no problems with yesterday's attack on the 1.1129 peak and will attempt to go higher. After breaking the resistance level will further aim of 1.1218. In this case, it seems quite real strengthening of the euro, even to the level of 1.1456 or higher over the next session or weeks. Tomorrow will flow as data from Germany and the USA but they will have an indirect impact on exchange rate fluctuations, as the market waited records will be the FOMC. NOTE: Tomorrow's FOMC notes may determine the future direction for the currency pair in a broader horizon.
by RobertPapon