Foreign markets have made some headlines in recent months. The German Dax and French CAC 40 hit record levels toward the end of 2023. Those indexes are generally priced in local currency, and a rising dollar in 2023 led to relative underperformance among US-traded ETFs. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has consolidated around the key 104 level lately. Amid this FX...
I'm not normally a currency trader, but I do take a look at them here and there along with U.S. bond yields, I drew this trend channel awhile back, and now it's looking like there's a good chance EURUSD reverses back to the upside here soon. To further the basic idea here, in a couple weeks we will have another FOMC meeting, and based on the way the 3 month...
My two most recent posts were identifying a potential upcoming trade idea behind Euro bouncing back vs. USD soon, the chart today has made it looked more prime for reversal, finding ever increasing support, and slightly weakening 5 year yields in both Euro and U.S.. The difference between the two looks like it may start to contract a little in the coming weeks as...
So I will allow for one more minor move up in the us $ But I would want to take this trade at all it could happen tonight in the over sea markets and anyone outside of my desk or the trade will be able to be filled and out . not sure but the dsi in the us $ is now at a level for trouble I am not short yet as the math allows it as high...
The May 24 expiration 107 calls are under a dime, spread is bit wide and the Mqy 31 expiration 107 calls again spread wide .16 - .20. Im gonna grab 100 shares of the ETF for a short term move and throw stops very tight just under $106
Both sides will concede and we will ultimately have a Brexit that looks something like a Bremain.
There are a number of catalysts that point to the end of the dollar run, however, the Feds pivot is a necessary piece of the puzzle.
Leaks of a new TLTRO program came out today yet the price remained strong. At worst this should worry dollar bulls.
An overview of the drivers of this currency pair and a reminder to remain patient
Recent tweets from Trump show his frustration with the strength of the dollar relative to the Euro as he labeled the ECB currency manipulators. The business cycle is long in the tooth and although the data is still expanding, it is doing so at an ever slower pace. This favors a weaker $
Contracting USD liquidity supports a bullish US Dollar view and a risk-off positioning. If the global Dollar liquidity fails to improve and continues to contract a deflationary environment may be ahead. Certainly the USD indebted EM countries & corporations have already been heavily impacted by the rapid rise in the dollar. Commodity indexes have shown this...
Shorting Euro here on weakness and DXY strength. +3 Aug17 110.5/111.5 put spreads for $.43 db/contract. I'll manage these if they're quick winners, otherwise I'll just let them do their thing.
This is quite easy, the next phase is discerning whatever participants are doing.
I've a bearish bias on the EURUSD based on capital outflow due to the low yield on Bunds vs much more attractive US treasury yield. In a nutshell I've short straddled FXE at 111 until Aug expiry and longed a 104/122 strangle until year end. Back in June 26 When EURUSD @ 1.165 I sold the FXE AUG 111 straddle for @2.70 with IV at 7.98. This gave me breakevens at...
Hi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart! Have a great day everyone!
Hi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart! Have a great day everyone!
Hi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart! Have a great day everyone!