Just looking for some premium around the market on these up days. Found an "okay" IV in FXE. Trade setup: - 1 FXE Mar 17 101/103/103/105 Iron Fly @ 1.37 DTE: 32 Max Win: $137 Max Loss: $63 Trade Management: 25% Winner or ~ $35; Full loser or will roll out ITM/tested side if on the dance floor. Green is profit zone and vertical black line represents expiration.
... for a 2.25 credit. Although general background IV in FXE isn't high here (it rarely is, comparatively speaking), it's high relative to where it's been in the last six months. Metrics: Max Profit: $225 Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $175 BE's at 98.75/103.25 Notes: Will look to manage at 25% max profit. Just trying to keep the theta coming in here with what...
As a large time frame trader, my tendency with the Euro or with its stock proxy FXE, has been to short it on strength given the cycle of ECB easing and Fed tightening. The shorts I have taken have been been few and far between since early 2015, having all been taken around EURUSD 1.150. Given the fact that we are at or near long-term support (the Oct 1997/Mar...
Another breakout is possible for the euro dollar FXE. See the full newsletter here: forum.marketstockoptions.com
Ugh. In spite of abysmal non-farm payrolls, the week ended with the VIX still in sub-15 territory, meaning that less than 45 DTE premium selling in the broader indices is "off the table" for another week in the absence of something earth-shaking occurring in the markets here. This could come in the form of the most recent "Brexit" referendum poll, which shows...
There are basically two variations on a "Super Bear," the first uses a short call to finance a long put debit spread, the other uses a short call credit spread to do the same thing, the difference being that a naked call Super Bear is an undefined risk trade, while a call spread Super Bear is defined. In this particular case, in order to be capital efficient, I'm...
With VIX at sub-14 levels and without much on the earnings calendar that is ideally playable with options from a premium selling standpoint, next week is likely to be a schnooze in the absence of a broad market volatility pop. Nevertheless, there are a couple of plays I might consider. MON: MON announces earnings on April 6th before market open. With an implied...
I don't frequently put on debit spreads, but here's an instrument in which I have a fairly firm directional bias and which, additionally, has extremely low implied volatility at this point in time, making it ideal for either a calendar or a diagonal, both of which benefit from expansions in volatility (which will occur in the instrument assuming further weakness...
Okay, okay, okay ... . So I've griped on occasion about trading FXE as the EURUSD proxy (no volatility, not good for premium selling, blah blah blah). But I can't help but think that I might get an another opportunity to short FXE on one of these weak dollar/risk off spikes. We're three points away in FXE, so I might get a shot ... . Keep an eye on the...
Unfortunately for me I guess, I don't trade spot forex anymore, but I do keep an eye on the majors, particularly EURUSD, because I can trade that using options via FXE, the EURUSD proxy. I have traded FXE a total of five times this year, but it's always been about selling into strength; given Fed tightening and ECB easing, it's always been short with short call...
In my previous FXY chart, I detailed the weekly/monthly time at mode trend signals and with Tim West's help I noticed that the downtrend was expiring during August. After seeing the reaction to this event, I conclude that both FXE and FXY are reversing the longterm downtrend, judging by post pattern behavior after forming a clear bottom. This currently eludes...
I have drawn out a guess for how the EURUSD will advance back to the 1.13-1.14 area. I draw reactions from clusters of time and where there is low time and draw a progression of about 16 days similar to the number of days at the mode across March through April. The secondary reason for this chart is today's "Range Expansion Down Day" that started from a "HIGHER...
My previous guess at the course of the dollar was wrong with the long term down trend line and the 50% retraction not effecting price action. I have changed my perception of the formation that has formed. Now we are near the .618 retraction. From my EWT count (always subjective) we are at the 4th wave of lessor degree which supposedly is a good spot for a...
Folks on this site seem to know a lot more about currencies than I do. But here is how the euro looks to me. In EWT (which I recommend you NEVER use by itself) one form of consolidation in a correction is A,B,C with the B wave a 5 wave triangle a,b,c,d,e. I think that is what we likely have here. Often the C wave is some Fib relationship to A such as C=A, C=.62X...
Oversold daily and weekly readings are off the chart. ECB conference tommorrow could mark a S/T low. Worth a shot or avoid all together? Seem tempting to put in a small speculative position for a quick bounce.
Natural area for the EURUSD to consolidate and digest the recent major down move. H/S target achieved at 1.30158 and price bounced off major down trend line that has defined pivot areas of supply and demand since 2013 (dotted black line - see shaded circles for times that price has pivoted off of this line. Would not be surprised to see a counter trend covering...