FXI to $55.00 someday ?FXI , the most representative ETF of the Chinese stock market, reflects, in our view, a 15-year stagnation that contrasts with the remarkable economic growth China has experienced during the same period.
Since May 2008, the FXI has unsuccessfully attempted to break above the $55.00 level, registering relative highs at the following points:
May 2008: $55.00
April 2015: $52.85
January 2018: $54.00
February 2021: $54.53
At the same time, since October 2008, the ETF appears to have established a support level near $20.00, with notable lows at:
October 2008: $19.35
October 2022: $20.87
January 2024: $20.86
A key level: $33.73
Currently, FXI is attempting to break above $33.73, which corresponds to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This calculation is based on the relative high of $54.53 (February 2021) and the lows recorded in October 2022 ($20.87) and January 2024 ($20.86).
In October 2024, the price temporarily surpassed this level, driven by high volume, reaching the 0.50 level ($37.70). However, this movement was short-lived and lacked follow-through.
The key question
Will FXI manage to decisively break through the $33.73 (0.382) level in the coming days? And if so, will it reach the following key Fibonacci levels?
$37.70 (0.50)
$41.67 (0.618)
$47.32 (0.786)
$54.53 (1.00)
While FXI is still far from breaking through the $55.00 barrier, a sustained move from the $20.86 lows could signal a historic trend shift, challenging the ceiling that has capped its price for the past 15 years.
Our opinion is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell. Before making any investment, consult with your financial advisor.
