DXY - Signs of Strength After False BreakThe USD is still within a short-term range but yesterday's false break of the floor 94.90 is encouraging for bulls.
Fxrenew
Dow Jones - Short-Term Range conditions continueDow is currently neutral in it's short-term range. It can really go both ways from here, so the break is the key to the next move.
DXY - Neutral within 94.90 to 95.40 The USD is currently neutral within a short-term range. Watch for the breakout as a cue to further directional movement.
DXY - Bias is Still Negative in the Short-TermThe USD must break 95.40s in order to establish any kind of positive momentum.
For now, the bias remains neutral to slightly negative in the short-term.
Dow - Short-Term Range is KeyShort-term range barriers help in gauging the next move. Wait for a break before acting.
Keep a tight watch on trades these days...headline risk is increasing.
YM - Sell-off Overdone?The Dow bounced a very clear support zone yesterday and we have bounced all the way towards yesterday's highs.
This is a sign of strength and perhaps it's time to start looking to get long on dips - cautiously of course.
FTSEMIB - Negative Bias Continues Our bias on the Italian stock market continues to be short. The deadline for presenting an acceaptable budget to the EU is Oct. 15th, and no progress has been made. Italy still remains on an opposing foot and thus the markets are maintaining the pressure on Italian stocks.
FTSEMIB - Biased Down on Budget IssuesItalian stocks are taking the hardest hit in Europe, on recent budget issues.
USDCNH - Yesterday's rise spooked markets, today calmer storyYesterday's risk-off mode was likely driven by the rise in USDCNH after China's return to the markets. Remember that the 6.9000-7.00 zone is the line in the sand. Any trade war jitters, or economic difficulty in China could weaken the Yuan even more, driving up the USD and putting more pressure on Emerging Markets.
DXY - Uptick still intact post-NFPSolid wage growth and higher yields continue to hold the USD up. Together with some risk-off tone in Asia, and issues in Europe, the USD seems poised for further gains.
BTP - Italian Yields soar as Budget Issues remainItaly continued to be a sticking point for European policymakers. Salvini and DiMaio are not collaborating and want a higher budget deficit for 2019 than the EU will allow. Deadline is October 15th.
BTP - Italian Bonds Under Pressure Post-Budget MeetingItaly's populist government kept some of it's promises and delivered a hefty budget for 2019 ata deficit of 2.4%.
Markets are pricing in more of a conflict between Italy and Brussels. THis move down has quite a ways to go.
DXY - Shallow consolidation ahead of key resistanceThe USD seems poised for further gains today, as we have negotiated 95.00 without pulling back at all. This is a sign of strength and we expect another boost higher towards 95.70.
DXY - Short-term Bias flipped back Long after FOMCUSD Buyers are back after Powell raised rates and said nothing too dovish in the statement yesterday. We look for a move back up to previous flip zones now.
Silver - Volatility Contraction highlightedSilver is catching up to Gold with it's volatility contraction. We are appraoching an influential FOMC meeting and
perhaps the market is preparing for a breakout in the USD.
DXY - Pressure on 94.40s again, with a Higher LowIn volatile trade yesterday, the USD did post a higher low which gives even more juice to our feeling of a short-term bias change (heading higher).
Don't expect much ahead of FOMC tomorrow but still these are warning signs that the downside is weakening.
DXY - Most studies Neutral but short-term strength notedTHe market has punched back above 94.00 and is pressing the previous support at 94.20.
The feeling is that - despite the downtick - pressure is heading north for the time being.
Gold - Volatility Breakout ExpectedGold has been in a tight range for the past couple of weeks. Our relative width indicator is pointing to a volatility contraction which leads to volatility breakouts. Keep your eye on this one.
DXY - Volatility Breakout in PLayWe got the breakout we were waiting for. Next downside targets in the 93.10/50 zone.
EurUsd - Volatility Contraction in PlayThe Euro is also coiling, and we may get a break of previous monthly highs in line with the current trend.
However, from a fundamental perspective it's tough to justify Euro longs given the political drama in Germany
alongside the other internal fractures in the Euro Area.
But we must trade what we see, not what we think.
DXY - Volatility Contraction in playThe short-term negative bias for the USD is still in play, but we have gone rangebound. However, the major behaviour now is the volatility contraction that is setting up an explosive move. We would favour a move to the downside, but who knows.
DXY - Short-Term bias flipping to negativeWe're once again flipping the short-term bias on the Dollar. With 94.50s under pressure, we think a break lower is more probable.
Also, we are in a volatility contraction so any break might grow legs quite quickly.
AUDUSD - Downtrend ResumesThe Aussie is taking yet another hit on the back of renewed US/CHINA tensions.
Trump will be pursuing the 200 Bln in tariffs and Australia, as a proxy for China and
also for risk-appetite, is taking a beating.
It's downtrend has resumed and we look for further weakness.
