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GBPUSD - Double Top in Place, Downtrend to Resume?Bloomberg article released today speculates October Brexit deal unlikely. November also unlikely perhaps and deal being pushed into December. Chances are we get no deal whatsoever. GBP attracting some sellers on this. This may open up the downside again, so go over the GBP crosses (perhaps GBPCAD) for value picks.

Short

DXY - Momentum Stalling, Bias still Negative The DXY is still headed towards 94.00 despite the recovery late into yesterday's trade. Momentum is now sluggish but end of month flows in the next couple of days should keep a lid on the USD.

BTPs - Negative Bias Remains In Play Recent comments from Italy's DiMaio continue to worry markets that a future clash is possible which will put yet another dent in the EU's cohesion.

Short

EURGBP - Long Bias in Play The Euro remains favoured in the current environment, and GBP remains weak(er) on Brexit concerns. We like EURGBP longs today once again, looking for 9100 as the initial target. 9050 and 9035 are the pullback zones that should host bids if this uptick is to continue.

Long

DXY - Negative Bias in Play We consolidated below 95.00 and until we break back above, the odds favour a push towards 94.00.

Short

CNH Driving FX The market continues to move based on USDCNH, which poked the DXY lower/EurUsd higher stops were triggered as the pair traded 1.1654. The next level to watch is 1.1685, beyond that we will see another wave of stop losses.

Short

DXY - S-T Range 95.00/70 key to direction The DXY will need to make a decision this week, breaking south (and opening up more downside) below 95.00 OR breaking above 95.70s (and opening up a test of recent highs). Inside the 95.00/70 range do nothing.

DXY - Profit Taking in play, but uptrend still intact The DXY is retracing on the back of profit taking but this uptrend is still very much intact, with supports at 95.50 and 95.00.

TRY - The only thing that matters This is really contagious. After the news about Turkish banks’ swap, the panic spilled over to other EM pairs. USDZAR traded up to 15.70. USDMXN rose to 19.35. This panic has caught attention of some Asian central banks.

Long

TRY - No Help from Erdogan Erdogan speaking publicly for the first time since the TRY rout started (years ago). His comments are not being appreciated by the markets. Quite a closed mind it seems, and an aggressive posture against the international community. This will only exacerbate capital flight from Turkey.

Long

GBPNZD - Our Choice on Positive UK data GBPNZD holding up at the 23% retracement of yesterday's range. We have UK data in just a bit, and are expecting better data. GBPNZD seems like a decent odds play (post-data) if we are correct, matching GBP strength with NZD weakness.

Long

BTP - Holding below Flip Zone Our negative bias remains in play as prices continue to hold below the recent flip zone.

Short

TRY Driving Flight to Quality The 10-year Turkish government bond yield rose 24 basis points to 19.91%, a record high. The ECB is starting to worry about European bank exposure to Turkey, which is on the brink of hyperinflation due to Erdogan's dictatorship. Capital is fleeing the country and the market is showing a flight to quality today with aggressive USD buying and Jpy buying.

DXY - Range Broken, Trend Up The USD is being pushed by stop-loss buying in thin markets. Beware of resistance levels further up the ladder. Bias remains up, but today's CPI might throw a temporary wrench in things.

Long

BTPs - Poised for Further Losses BTPs bounced the key resistance area and have closed below a recent flip zone on the back of fears that Italy will not comply with EU rules in forming it's next budget, that contains flat-tax proposals and a hefty pension reform. Look for further losses today.

Short

DXY - Short-Term Range Still Valid DXY still holding within it's (higher) short-term range. We tested the floor during Asia, perhaps we test the ceiling during London?

USDCNH - Technical View Uptrend still in place, despite the lack of momentum.

USDCHN Guiding USD Moves Industry contacts report USD moves driven these days by USDCNY. The chart illustrates the point.

USDCAD - Potential for a Move to 3100 The recent Saudi/Canada dispute has weighted heavily on the Canadian Dollar. This short-term driver may boost USDCAD towards 1.3100 so long as we can hold the 1.3040/50 zone. The only risk is the DXY falling through recent supports.

Long

DXY - Testing Short-Term Support DXY at a key juncture in the short-term. If we can rotate higher from 95.00, there is a serious chance at breaking current range highs. A break lower would cause even more profit taking in USD-pairs as we head back down to the bottom of the range. Watch for clued here in the 95.00 area.

BTP - Italian bonds still under scrutiny Italy's Deputy PM DiMaio confirms markets' fears: this morning he said that respecting fiscal rules is not the priority in the next budget. Until 94.00 is broken to the upside, pressure still remains. Better picture if we hold here below 93.00 and push towards 90.00 again.

Short

DXY - Pressuring top of Range The DXY is responding positively to recent developments and has knocked on the door of it's top range barrier. THough is was rejected, short-term support has held which is a positive sign for bulls. We're not in a clearly bullish pattern yet, but the odds still favour higher prices.

Long

BTPs - Low Volatility Breakout Italian BTPs are under pressure again, after bouncing recent highs. The narrative this time round is a top-level meeting amongst ministers to plan the next budget. The market fears that Italy's populist government will pressure EU fiscal rules...

Short

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