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GBPJPY - Poised for further gains on UK data GBP is holding up today despite PM May's government is losing pieces (various resignations in the past days). Today's upwards move was bond-driven but we feel there is scope for further upside as UK data should be supportive.

Long

AUDUSD - Head & Shoulders Reversal AUDUSD looks poised for further gains after a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern was completed and price is being propelled higher by risk-on sentiment and a broader USD reversal.

Long

GBPUSD - Poised for further gains GBP closed approximately at a previous week's high and just under 1.3300. The UK June PMI surveys all surprised on the upside last week relative to market expectations, while BoE Governor Carney sounded more upbeat about the economy in a speech in Newcastle. Markets now attach around 80% probability of an August rate rise and GBP remains rather robust against the USD (which is receiving negative vibes off the NFP report). We like the odds of further gains this week.

Long

USDCAD - Biased Short into the BOC rates decision Buoyant Crude Oil and, more recently, stronger Jobs data and weaker US data have kept the bias tilted to the downside on USDCAD. We like the odds of further losses this week, given the weekly close below 1.3100. Bank of Canada should also raise rates this week which could be a further boost to CAD.

Short

Copper - Negative Bias In Play Our negative Bias on Copper was confirmed last week, and we remain biased short into this week as well. Pressure should remain, so long as China data shows weakness this week. Main support is 2.8 which we bounced Friday. Look to sell rallies up to 2.88 or breaks below 2.80.

Short

Nasdaq - Biased Long after NFP Friday's NFP report highlighted lower wages and higher unemployment. This has given birth to a recovery in equities and we like playing the Nasdaq on this driver.

Long

CADJPY - Amidst Event Risk, Further Gains are Possible Cad has been benefitting from higher Crude prices, beyond a stronger GDP report last week. This week has been quite dull thus far due to a plethora of political events and market closures. However, as the market now starts to focus on local drivers, CAD seems poised for further gains and our expectation for today's Employment report is positive.

Long

EurJpy - Amidst Event Risk, Further Gains are Possible EurJpy has benefitted from some hawkish ECB members and from a recovery in risk appetite. We have Non-Farm Payrolls out today, and we also have to see what China does after the USA implemented their first batch of tariffs. But, technically, this chart offers confidence in a breakout north.

Long

GBPAUD - Long Bias in Play After a strong reaction in a bull market type, GBPAUD is potentially poised for further gains. We have had a bullish engulfing off the Bollinger Median Line (20 SMA) and contextually the Aussie has been weakening. Keep in mind that today we have a crunch Brexit meeting in the UK which could either amplify the recovery or throw a spanner in things.

Long

Global Risk Monitor - Higher Lows confirmed Volatility is rising and we have confirmed higher lows in the 16.00/17.00 range with spikes higher. It seems we are transitioning into a higher volatility environment, despite currently being in no man's land.

Long

EURCAD - Bearish bias developing Strong Canadian data matched with political chaos in the EU is keeping EURCAD compressed in a tight range. We like the odds of continuation (south) on these drivers. For now, the Euro has been resilient but we believe it's just a matter of time until the market pays attention to the political chaos.

EURAUD - Short Bias developing The market is responding to better Australian data. It's early to start shorting this, but it remains on our watchlist. Today is also Independence Day so participation is light and we do not suggest opening new positions.

NZDCAD - Bias Short, No Change Overnight Kiwi Q2 business confidence dropped to 7-year low at minus 20 from -11 last quarter. This is keeping a lid on NZD crosses. We continue to look for further weakness.

SHCOMP - Bias remains negative Trump continues to escalate the Trade War, now hitting China Mobile. Chinese bourses are being watched in order to gauge the seriousness of Trump's moves. Remember that Tariffs come into place Friday July 6th.

SShort

Crude Oil - Libya keeps the bias intact Crude Oil up on story from Economic Times: Libya declared force majeure on significant amounts of its supply – disruptions to Libyan supplies caused the move up. We are approaching the first targets for the week, and support should come in around 74.00.

Long

Dax - Negative Bias In Play The Dax is starting off the week on a negative note after Seehofer's resignation intent. Not a done deal yet as the CSU meets at 8.30 CET today. But this should keep the pressure on the Dax unless a deal is reached between CSU and CDU (not likely).

Short

Copper - Bias remains negative but supports in focus Copper remains under pressure, and it should continue to do so after a weaker CHN PMI over the weekend, and with US tariffs expected to hit this week (Jul 6th). Pressure will ease if Trump pulls back at the last minute. So once again, this is a trade that depends as much on politics as it does on broader technical considerations.

Short

Crude Oil - Bias Remains Positive The OPEC deal has given quite a boost to Crude. However, Trump is attempting to persuade Saudi Arabia to enhance production by 2 mln bpd. This is double what the market expected and might stall the rally. For now, Crude remains a buy on dips. But keep your eyes on the wires.

Long

EURNZD - Bias Up but Strong Resistance Ahead We have reached previous monthly highs on EurNzd after a dovish hold by RBNZ and efforts to find a deal regarding the EU immigration crisis. The deal isn't finalized yet, so things may change. But if all goes according to plan, EurNzd will likely remain strong this week.

NZDCAD - Bias Remains Short The combination of negative sentiment on NZD and positive sentiment on Cad (due to Crude Oil) is keeping the pressure on NZDCAD. We look for lower prices this week.

Short

GBP - Temporary bullish signal The combination of a hawkish BOE and the USD short-squeeze has setup a Friday-reversal trade. We are looking to keep this tight with initial target at 1.3300 then hopefully 1.3350.

Long

GBPUSD - Bearish bias into BOE Today's BOE meeting will set the stage for August. The jury is still out on whether the Q1 slowdown was temporary, or the start of a more pronounced deceleration in economic activity. The BoE can cite a slew of recent positive data releases (services PMI, retail sales) but trade balance, inflation developments and business confidence are weaker. Overall we don't expect the BOE to be positive today.

Short

USDCAD - Steady as she goes Our bullish call has been slowly progressing. The new key support level is 1.3300 and we remain seated looking for 1.3350s. Iran might agree to oil output increases, which should keep the lid on Crude and Cad.

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