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EURUSD - Sell at Market!As expected, the FOMC cut 25bp albeit with 8-2 vote. A bit surprisingly, the Fed also decided to end its balance sheet reduction. Most importantly, the Fed repeated in the statement that it ‘will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’, which we interpret as an easing bias suggesting more cuts may come. However, it is also clear that Powell will not pre-commit to more cuts, which left markets disappointed and was slightly to the hawkish side. Hence we’re left with USD strength and we suggest selling some at market, but keeping in mind that we might rally towards the short-term resistance before falling further.
Short
by Sam_Eder
1
NZDUSD - Short Setup in Play as RBNZ "considers" QENZD may be reversing. It's early days yet but the Bird fell after Bloomberg reported that the RBNZ is looking to refresh their unconventional policy strategy. “This year the Reserve Bank has begun scoping a project to refresh our unconventional monetary policy strategy and implementation. This is at a very early stage,” the RBNZ said in response to an Official Information Act request for work on non-standard policy measures. We like selling with feeder-stakes (small positions) at current levels, looking to add if the move grows legs.
Short
by Sam_Eder
Dax - Continuation Short Setup!Equities lost ground last week, as earnings reports from major US banks and other large US companies didn’t inspire a lot of confidence. This week sees some of the FAANG companies report – with Facebook, Amazon and Alphabet in the lineup of earnings reports. Bellwether Caterpillar also reports so the forward guidance from these companies will shape expectations for the global economic outlook in the second half of 2019. We like shorting through the continuation levels today, during the EU morning session.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by Sam_Eder
1
Nasdaq - Continuation Short Setup!Equities lost ground last week, as earnings reports from major US banks and other large US companies didn’t inspire a lot of confidence. This week sees some of the FAANG companies report – with Facebook, Amazon and Alphabet in the lineup of earnings reports. Bellwether Caterpillar also reports so the forward guidance from these companies will shape expectations for the global economic outlook in the second half of 2019. We like shorting through the continuation levels today, during the US cash session.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Sam_Eder
GBPJPY - Potential Breakout Setting Up! On Thursday, UK retail sales beat, The Irish PM was confident the border issue could be resolved and EU negotiator Barnier expressed willingness to seek out alternatives to the Irish backstop. Meanwhile, the UK House of Commons voted to back an amendment designed to make it tougher for the next PM to suspend Parliament in an effort to force a no-deal Brexit. Alongside higher equity prices on the back of FOMC easing jitters, there may be scope for more of a rally in GBPJPY today. We like playing the break of 135.00 with a tight stop, looking for 135.20 (intraday) and then 135.80 (next week perhaps).
Long
by Sam_Eder
GBPNZD - Short Setup in Play!GBP has been suffering from renewed No-Deal Brexit speculation. The Grieve amendment was rejected and the no-deal option is still on the table. PM Johnson emerged in a TV debate with his opponent, Hunt, shortly after the vote. A no-deal Brexit would be “vanishingly inexpensive” to the British economy, said Johnson, if mishandled. “The crucial thing is to prepare… It’s vanishingly inexpensive if you prepare.The markets do not like this stance and the higher odds of a no-deal Brexit. At the same time, NZD is in splendid shape and we like further downside in GBPNZD.
Short
by Sam_Eder
GBPCAD - Monetary Policy Divergence Suggest Shorts!The Loonie is the strongest currency out there at the moment and is ignoring the decline in Crude Oil. Firming inflation and a decent BoC business survey will encourage the BoC next week to reiterate an optimistic tone. On the flip side, BOE's Carney was quite dovish yesterday, and that's why we like further GBPCAD downside. Sell a tad at market even, but remember that we're still transacting a round number. Pullbacks to 6550 are possible.
Short
by Sam_Eder
1