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GBP/USD Showing Bullish Continuation Pattern 50% Fibo 1.2400 SUPDuring early Easter Monday morning in London, the GBP/USD currency pair is experiencing a drop for the fourth consecutive day, as it takes offers to refresh the intraday low near 1.2400. This is a result of the US Dollar rebounding due to risk aversion and hawkish bets on the US Federal Reserve (Fed), following last week's pullback from a 10-month high. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's (BoE) next move is uncertain, causing doubts about the pair's future direction. Based on our analysis, the GBP has experienced a pullback towards the 1.2400 area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci level. We have identified a bullish flag pattern of continuation, indicating that there is a high probability of a new bullish impulse for the Cable.
by FOREXN1
10
EUR/USD:Market Risks Weigh on Exchange Rate, says INGAccording to economists at ING, the Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is likely to be primarily driven by the US Dollar in the near future. The pair may see a surge above the 1.1000 level, but the economists believe that it will be challenging to sustain any further gains. The economists note that if the ISM services reading comes in below consensus, it could trigger a break above the 1.1000 level. However, they caution that the sustainability of rallies beyond that point would need to be tested against the market's confidence to consistently unwind defensive dollar positions. This is particularly important given the ongoing risks of fresh financial turmoil and tighter liquidity. Looking to the European Central Bank (ECB), several key members of the ECB Governing Council, including Boris Vujcic, Bostjan Vasle, and Chief Economist Philip Lane, are scheduled to speak. While there is always a risk of surprise remarks by ECB officials, the economists believe that these risks have moderated recently, as most key speakers have aligned themselves with a pledge to keep raising rates, in line with their position on the dovish/hawkish spectrum. In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair may see a temporary surge above 1.1000, it is unlikely to sustain further gains without the market's confidence in consistently unwinding defensive dollar positions. Furthermore, ongoing risks of financial turmoil and tighter liquidity add to the uncertainty surrounding the pair's future movements.
by FOREXN1
9
USD/JPY Bears Dominate as US Dollar Hovers Near 2-Month LowsThe bears appear to be in charge of the USD/JPY as the US Dollar lingers close to a 2-month low. The market's focus now shifts to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls jobs data. The USD/JPY has dropped in Tokyo, reflecting the US Dollar's continued weakness. The pair is currently trading at around 131.50 and has fallen from its earlier high of 131.73 to a low of 131.30. The US Dollar remains under pressure, hovering near its two-month lows, as a result of several concerning data releases from the United States. These developments have reduced expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, which now seems to be approaching the end of its monetary tightening cycle. Overnight data shows that labor market conditions may finally be easing, with job openings, a key labor demand indicator, down by 632,000 to 9.9 million on the final day of February. Furthermore, US factory orders have declined for the second consecutive month, falling by 0.7% in February after a 2.1% decline in January, following a 1.7% increase in December. This data follows the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s report yesterday that its Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.3 last month, the worst level since May 2020, from 47.7 in February.
by FOREXN1
3
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 05.04.2023 1h chart– Previous Daily candle closed strong Bullish at 2020.600 as Daily breaks above recent Daily Resistance and the previous Monthly High. – Buys on close above 2025.100 targeting 1h previous Support formed on 9th March 2022 at 2030.100, Leaving Runners to the next 1h previous Support formed on 9th March 2022 at 2038.600. – Sells on close below 2016.200 targeting Previous Weekly / Daily Rejection wick formed on 20th March 2023 to retest 2009.800, Leaving Runners to the 4h previous Resistance formed on 24th March 2023 at 2000.200. – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change to be released 15mins after New York session opens forecasting 208k / Previous : 242k. Later on the New York session we have ISM Services PMI.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SalimFX20
1
EUR/USD Expected to Break 1.10 Before US Nonfarm PayrollsBased on the analysis of economists, it is expected that the EUR/USD currency pair will reach the 1.10 level before the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls data. However, some experts suggest that there may be a pause before this anticipated jump, and the pair may find some support around 1.0870/1.0880 due to a potential recovery of the US Dollar and the need for further tightening by the European Central Bank to address core inflation. Nevertheless, the overall outlook for the EUR/USD remains bullish, and the 1.10 level may be breached next week, unless there is unexpectedly strong data from the US ISM and a generally quiet data calendar until the Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday.
by FOREXN1
11
USD/JPY Remains Depressed on Soft Data and Lower YieldsThe USD/JPY currency pair has declined to 132.20, continuing its retreat from a two-week high. The drop in US Treasury bond yields and softer data, as well as upbeat comments from Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, may be behind the recent losses. Kishida has pledged more investment to speed up private investment in green transformation bonds to promote domestic decarbonization. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields have dropped for the past four days to 3.42%, while the two-year counterpart has also declined for two consecutive days to 3.97%. Softer US PMIs and lack of inflation fears from the OPEC+ supply cuts and the resulting oil price run-up have weighed on yields. Furthermore, the downbeat Fed calls have also contributed to the decline in yields and USD/JPY prices. As a result, the USD/JPY may face downward pressure ahead of this week's key US jobs report.
by FOREXN1
5