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NZD/USD Bears Remain in ControlSince early October, sellers have largely taken control of the NZD/USD (New Zealand versus the US dollar) and sent price to lows not seen since late 2022, with limited pullbacks seen. Overall, the currency pair is down nearly 10% from October highs. Ichimoku Resistance Supporting Sell-On-Rally Setups What is technically important to recognise is that the current downtrend remains supported by the area formed between the Ichimoku’s Conversion Line (blue at US$0.5830) and Base Line (red at US$0.5892). Consequently, as long as the pair continues to explore lower levels, any pullback will likely prompt traders to closely monitor price action for signs of bearish intent from within the aforementioned area. Adding to the bearish outlook for the NZD/USD, in addition to the 200-day simple moving average (US$0.6050) rotating lower, and price crossing south of the line in early October, it is clear that the Ichimoku’s Leading Span A (light green at US$0.5861) crossed below the Leading Span B (light orange at US$0.6012). This provides a bearish signal and helps establish another resistance area that investors will watch closely should a deeper pullback come to fruition: the Ichimoku Cloud. Price Direction? With the downtrend clear, should a pullback to resistance at US$0.5816 materialise – which, at that point, will likely line up with the resistance area between the Ichimoku’s Conversion/Base Lines – this could be an area that sellers are drawn to.
Short
by FPMarkets
XAGEUR - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure. We can notice the break of market structure (sign of weakness) on key liquidity level, so there is a higher probability to see price lower at least on opposite level (marked lower). Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
OANDA:XAGEURShort
by Maks_Klimenko
Crude Oil - High Tide Pt.2Pt 1 found here . This is an extremely critical market at this time. What must be understood, is NYMEX light crude oil is not its' own independent market, but rather a BENCHMARK for a larger market for crude oil globally, and its' derivatives. Consider a Kenyan bank, that owns a loan on a Kenyan gas station. What is the best instrument to hedge their investment? Well, obviously the answer is NYMEX:RB1! , NYMEX gasoline futures. The sovereign bond of gasoline prices so to speak. Examining the market technically, we see that it appears bullish. The market experienced a severe panic in price during 2020, as demand and logistics collapsed in face of a global epidemic. However the price has recovered considerably, due to OPEC controls and the global necessity for this commodity. In fact, the market has even retested attempts made at reaching its 2008 high. Many local market do not have access to global markets as might be expected, such as the NYSE and CME to conduct their day-to-day affairs. This highlights the importance of NYMEX:CL1! globally, not only for the physical delivery of light crude in the United States. But the global marketplace for light crude oil and its' derivatives, such as plastic containers, heating oil and cosmetic products. The reference price for such items by suppliers, is naturally the most liquid benchmark available to them. Which is to say, they will sell their product based on the most available market for their ingredients. A notion common in all business, to be examined at a global level to understand the relevance of this market into the future. This market exists in the United States, which is what underpins the importance of the US Dollar as this principle applies to all commodity and equity benchmarks. Furthermore, the principle of liquidity remains relevant all through history, where commodities as long as trade exists have been priced according to the most liquid benchmark. The relevance of the US Dollar can most clearly be observed in global bond markets. As capital becomes scarce as Quantitative Easing globally comes to an end, and begins to flow towards the USA, creating the rally in $TVC:DXY. Rates in sovereign debt markets in the US and abroad have risen, and prices have fallen. A lack of demand in sovereign debt outside the USA is being realized, as FRED:RRPONTTLD RRP usage has risen since the beginning of the war between Ukraine and Russia. Because the USA is also the global benchmark for interest rates, due to its deep liquidity. Banks all around the globe balance and hedge their local debt based on this proxy market. For all intents and purposes, this is the only game in town. It may seem odd that the price of crude oil in US Dollars has risen, given that the value of the US Dollar has risen significantly worldwide. Inflation domestically might dictate that the price of NYMEX:CL1! should fall, but this has not been the case. There is something beneath the surface, that indicates a deep value in this trade yet to be realised. Despite governments and activist organisations fighting against the product, its relevance in commerce has not diminished. Coupled with the importance of this global benchmark, the whole of oil-based product globally appears as important as ever. The market indicated last week the potential for a turning point, as it has capitulated. Traders should consider the market will likely make another low, but appears to be setting up for a rally.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by FPS_Denny
EUR/USD Analysis Update: Impact of Election OutcomesIn light of recent developments, particularly the election victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump, market sentiment has shifted significantly. As anticipated in my previous analysis, this outcome has fueled optimism, contributing to a further decline of the EUR/USD pair by over 130 pips. The so-called "Trump trade" continues to support the strength of the USD, as the Republican sweep of both the House and Senate clears the way for the implementation of Trump's policy agenda. From a foreign exchange perspective, this is likely to result in increased fiscal spending, tariffs, and tighter immigration rules. These factors are expected to sustain the DXY (Dollar Index), along with upward inflation pressures that could keep interest rates higher than previously projected. From a technical standpoint, the bearish trend remains firmly in place across all timeframes: Daily (D1) Chart: The price action recently broke below the lower boundary of a two-year-old neutral rectangle at approximately 1.0670. This breakout signals further downside potential, with the next key support level at 1.0500, which I expect to be tested by the end of the year. Weekly (W1) Chart: The price action failed to break below the important support level 1.0640. If this level is breached, the next support at 1.0450 comes into play, indicating the potential for further declines. Monthly (1M) Chart: Notably, an interesting pattern emerges from historical performance in the last three months of election years. In years when a Democratic candidate won (2012, 2020), the EUR/USD recorded an approximate rise of 4.8%. Conversely, during Donald Trump’s first presidency in 2016, the EUR/USD fell by 4.6% during the same period. If this pattern holds for the October-December timeframe of 2024, we could see the EUR/USD reach levels as low as 1.0425 before a potential correction at the beginning of 2025. As you've likely heard many times recently - the next few weeks will be critical - in determining whether these levels hold or if we see a more significant breakdown.
Short
by XAUBanker
1
SasanSeifi| Where is the Next Support?Hey there, ✌ In the 10-hour timeframe, the Dow Jones Index has been correcting from the 43,300 price range. With a structural break around the 42,700 to 42,500 zone, the price entered a corrective phase, reaching down to 41,700. Currently, it is trading around 42,000. The general outlook leans more towards a bearish scenario. One potential scenario is that after some slight upward fluctuations or sideways movement, if the 42,500 supply zone doesn’t break, we may see further correction to lower levels around 41,400 and 41,300. Following this, a range-bound movement is possible upon reaching these levels. Should there be a correction in the price trend, it’s important to watch the price reactions in these zones to better understand the continuation of the movement. Additionally, if demand picks up and the critical 42,500 level breaks and holds, we could see a further price rise toward the 42,700 and 43,000 levels. 💢This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
SKILLING:US30Short
by SasanSeifi
USDCAD Sell Short (Final)I have been analyzing USDCAD for a while now and I believe this is the time for a double top to be formed and that M formation shall be taking place like the previous W pattern USDCAD has built up. As seen in the chart, USDCAD touched for a double bottom at 1.34213 which I predict that we shall be lead to that level again. USDCAD has far too long rallied and we should all be shorting this very top to make all our profits again. Rinse, repeat, and learn from these lessons in trading. I also wanted point out that in our analysis we have highlighted where previous support and resistances have broke out and lead to new higher highs and now lower lows when we come back down from this entry at 1.38973 I hope you all enjoyed our analysis! We also have included TP and SL in the chart and please follow our page for more signals like these! If you have any questions about this trade please send me a direct message and I will respond swiftly. Thanks for stopping by!
Short
by KingTraderFX
3