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Candlestick pattern: 1 Hour RetraceThe 1 Hour Retrace pattern is a candlestick formation with great potential for success and strength. This pattern originates after a false breakout of the level in which the price is contained, for example, in a channel. The beginning of this pattern occurs when one of the candles breaks outside the levels that contain the price and, subsequently, the next candle forcefully returns inside the pattern, closing within it. This indicates a false breakout and that the new price direction was incorrect. The stronger the candle on the return, the higher the probability that the price will swing back to the previous levels before the false breakout.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by JRiquelmeTrading
Candlestick pattern: Bullish Triple FormationThe 'Bullish Triple Formation' is a pattern in which two large bullish candles appear, separated by three small bearish candles. These three bearish candles make new lows and are contained within the body of the first large bullish candle. This pattern occurs in an uptrend and is interpreted as a correction of the trend after an upward impulse, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish movement thereafter. It's important to note that this pattern may have variations, as instead of three candles correcting the first large bullish candle, there can be two or more than three. The reliability of this pattern is high; however, it is still a single signal that should be accompanied by others to increase the probability of success in our analysis.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by JRiquelmeTrading
1
Metrics: Expected Value (EV)Expected Value (EV) is a statistical concept that indicates whether our trading system or strategy will yield positive, negative, or neutral results in the medium or long term. It is based on previous results. As we know, past performance does not guarantee future results, but it helps us get an idea of how it might work and allows us to base our decisions on objective terms. The formula for calculating Expected Value (EV) is as follows: Expected Value (EV) = (Win Rate * Average Win) - (Loss Rate * Average Loss) When interpreting the result, it indicates whether you will gain or lose in the medium or long term per unit of currency at risk. An example: A trader achieves an expected value of 0.5 with their trading operations. This means that every time they risk 1€ in the market, they gain 0.5€ in profit.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by JRiquelmeTrading
1
Candlestick pattern: Confirmed HammerA Hammer candlestick is a single-candle reversal pattern that indicates a potential change in the trend direction. These candles are typically characterized by a high or low that is significantly distant from the closing price, with the shadow being at least twice the size of the body. Like any candlestick pattern or analysis tool, its reliability increases with the presence of more confluences or signals. Therefore, in this case, we choose to trade this pattern when the confirmation criteria are met. However, in practice, there may be other factors to consider that could influence the decision to enter or not enter a trade. Additionally, there is another type of confirmation for this pattern. The most secure confirmation (but with less projection) would be to wait for the candle following the Hammer to close above it (in the case of a reversal to the upside). This would indicate that the rejection of continuing the current trend is genuine and that a change in direction is more likely.
PEPPERSTONE:CRYPTO30Education
by JRiquelmeTrading
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bearish Outlook Explained 🥇 Gold perfectly respected a key horizontal resistance and a falling trend line on a daily, forming a double top pattern. The neckline of the pattern was broken this week and it is a very important sign of strength of the sellers. I think that the market may drop lower. For entries, consider the underlined confluence zone based on a trend line and the underlined resistance. ❤️Please, support this video with like and comment!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VasilyTrader
14
Contracting Inflation Crushes the DollarThe US Dollar has been thriving on borrowed time. Time has run out. The US Dollar plunged to its lowest in 15-months in what many experts see as the beginning of a secular decline. Till now, A hawkish Fed served as a solid tail wind. A Fed pause will take the wind out of USD sails. The USD peak is behind us. Leveraged funds have repositioned their portfolios to go net short over the last month. Rising demand for FX gamma in the options market forebodes rising volatility in FX markets and a precursor to sharp out of the range price moves. Currency opportunities abound in developed markets (DM) and emerging markets (EM). Each of the G10 currencies have strengthened against the US Dollar over the last one month. High yield from double digit carry will position EM currencies to outperform the US Dollar in second half this year. Not all gloom and doom for King Dollar though. A resurgence in US inflation, onset of recession, and any further geo-political shocks will strengthen the US dollar as the world’s only global FX reserve. In this paper, we will explore two specific opportunities in the Euro and the Pound. Central Bank policy divergence and equity portfolio repositioning will drive Euro and Pound to significantly outperform the US Dollar. This paper posits two potential opportunities with long position in CME Micro FX Futures. First, a long position in CME Micro EUR/USD Futures with an entry at 1.128, target of 1.196 and hedged by a stop loss at 1.09 to deliver a reward to risk ratio of 1.8x. Second, a long position in CME Micro GBP/USD Futures with an entry at 1.31, exit at 1.399 and hedged by a stop loss at 1.265, delivering a reward to risk ratio of 2x. THE US FED APPEARS TO TAME INFLATION DOWN The US Fed has been fiercely fighting a raging inflationary environment. Its relentless battle is yielding results. Latest CPI reading shows that annual inflation is losing steam and now stands at 3% YoY. Both inflation and core inflation are now receding faster. Market expectations is for a final rate hike on July 26th marking the end of an unprecedented hiking cycle. The Fed seems to have tamed down inflation. Market anticipation of a Fed pause is taking winds off US Dollar sails. A clutch of DM and EM currencies have sharply outperformed the dollar over the last one month as seen from the chart below. Across the Atlantic, inflation remains stubbornly high in the EU and UK. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) have indicated that their hiking cycles are far from over. More fire power is required to tame inflation down. TAKING THE WIND OUT OF DOLLAR SAILS Policy Divergence: Exchange rates are all about interest rates. Central bank policy divergence plays a massive role in charting the forward path of FX-pairs. Combining Hawkish BoE and ECB with a US Fed that is expected to “pause for good” has led to a sharply weaker USD and strong Euro and Sterling. Equity Portfolio Repositioning: Besides policy divergence, it is the hedge funds fuelling rally in Euro and Sterling. These funds have been ramping up their equity positions in European stocks while slashing down the weighting in US equities as per prime brokerage data from Goldman Sachs. Portfolio repositioning by the hedge funds should come as no surprise. The Nasdaq recorded its best first half year in 40 years and is up >31% YTD. European stocks have been more subdued. Stoxx 600 is up merely 5% while the FTSE100 is down YTD. Lower valuations in Europe appear compelling for some hedge fund managers. FX Options Market Forebodes Sharp FX Moves: Time now is ripe for large moves in the FX market. FX option dealers have been witnessing rising demand for gamma in G10s. Gamma in FX options represents the sensitivity of FX options' delta to underlying FX rate. Typically, rising demand for gamma is a precursor to sharp FX moves. TRADE SETUP CME Micro FX Futures enable affordable access into the deeply liquid FX Futures market. Each lot of CME Micro EUR/USD provides exposure to 12,500 euros with each tick delivering a P&L of USD 1.25 per lot for every pip (0.0001) move in EUR. Similarly, each lot of CME Micro GBP/USD provides exposure to 6,250 pounds delivering USD 0.625 per lot in P&L for every pip (0.0001) move in GBP. LONG EURO FX FUTURES • Entry Level: 1.1280 • Target Level: 1.1960 • Stop Level: 1.0900 • Profit at Target: 680 pips x USD 1.25 = USD 850 • Loss at Stop: 380 pips x USD 1.25 = USD 475 • Reward/Risk: 1.8x LONG GBP/USD FUTURES • Entry Level: 1.3100 • Target Level: 1.3990 • Stop Level: 1.2650 • Profit at Target: 890 pips x USD 0.625 = USD 556.25 • Loss at Stop: 450 pips x USD 0.625 USD 281.25 • Reward/Risk: 2x Please note that the above P&L illustrations do not consider transactional costs and the cost of capital required for placing margins with CME clearing members and service providers which varies across brokers. CME clearing & trading fees can be found on CME Group's website. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
TVC:DXYShort
by mintdotfinance
VIX vs S&P500The VIX index (officially known as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index), developed by CBOE in 1993, is calculated based on the implied volatility of call and put options on the S&P500; index (SPX) over a 30-day period. The theory behind the volatility index is that if investors believe the market is going to decline, they will hedge their portfolios by buying puts (the right to sell an asset at a predetermined price before a specific expiration date). Conversely, if traders are bullish, they may not want to hedge against potential downturns. This index shows a negative correlation with the S&P500.; When there is high volatility, the VIX reaches high values and is often accompanied by declines in the S&P500;, indicating fear and pessimism in the market. These events often lead to significant movements in the stock markets. Conversely, when the VIX is at lows, there is confidence in the market and movements are smoother. Relevant VIX levels: VIX<20: Investor confidence. Often coincides with bullish periods for the S&P500.; 2030: Increased investor pessimism or fear. High volatility and the potential for significant downward corrections in the prices of the S&P500; and major stock indices.
TVC:VIX
by JRiquelmeTrading
1
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂️XAUUSD👉1H Price Targets 1944/ 1950🟡 Hey there, 🌀Well, as you can see, the price has finally broken above the resistance level of 1935. ◼My expectation for gold is that the price will experience a minor correction and confirmation before continuing to rise toward the desired initial target within the price range of 1944. To better understand the continuation of the price trend, we should observe how the price reacts to the resistance level. It's important to note that this week will bring important economic data, which could lead to significant market fluctuations. 💹 Just keep these scenarios in mind as you analyze the market. Remember, things can always change unexpectedly, so stay flexible in your trading approach. Wishing you loads of success in your trading adventures, my friend!✌ ❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️ Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help! And if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you! 🙌 daily timeframe analysis 👇
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by SasanSeifi
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂️USDCHF👉4H ⏭ 0.90200 / 0.90400 Hey there, buddy!✌ ◼In the 4-hour chart, as you can see, the price is just bouncing around between 0.89 and 0.90. Right now, the situation looks like this: the price might have a little dip after hitting the resistance at 0.90, but then it could bounce back up towards the targets around 0.90200 and the selling zone at 0.90400. 💹 ◼ We gotta keep an eye on how it reacts to the resistance levels to get a better idea of where it's heading. It might face some correction if it gets confirmed and hits the selling zone. But, we already have a probable trend identified, and the support at 0.89600 is quite important.❗ 🔹Just keep these scenarios in mind as you analyze the market. Remember, things can always change unexpectedly, so stay flexible in your trading approach. Wishing you loads of success in your trading adventures, my friend!✌ ❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️ 🔹Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help! 🔹And if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you! ✌
Long
by SasanSeifi
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂️EUR /USD 👉1H🔻 1.084 / 1.080 Hey there, buddy!✌ ◼In the 1-hour timeframe, we can see that the price has dropped from the significant resistance level at 1.10 and is currently fluctuating positively, trading around the price range of 1.084. It is currently being traded at 1.094.💹 ◼Here's a possible scenario to consider: If the price manages to stay below the resistance levels of 1.095 / 1.098, we may see a more significant correction toward the support range of 1.084 / 1.080 / 1.078. To gain a better understanding of the price's future movement, it's important to observe how it reacts to these resistance levels.💹 On the other hand, if the price consolidates above the resistance levels, there is a higher chance of further growth.❗ ⭕Just keep these scenarios in mind as you analyze the market. Remember, things can always change unexpectedly, so stay flexible in your trading approach. 🔹Wishing you loads of success in your trading adventures, my friend❗ ❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️ Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!✌ And if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you! 🙌
Short
by SasanSeifi
2