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VIX vs S&P500The VIX index (officially known as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index), developed by CBOE in 1993, is calculated based on the implied volatility of call and put options on the S&P500; index (SPX) over a 30-day period. The theory behind the volatility index is that if investors believe the market is going to decline, they will hedge their portfolios by buying puts (the right to sell an asset at a predetermined price before a specific expiration date). Conversely, if traders are bullish, they may not want to hedge against potential downturns. This index shows a negative correlation with the S&P500.; When there is high volatility, the VIX reaches high values and is often accompanied by declines in the S&P500;, indicating fear and pessimism in the market. These events often lead to significant movements in the stock markets. Conversely, when the VIX is at lows, there is confidence in the market and movements are smoother. Relevant VIX levels: VIX<20: Investor confidence. Often coincides with bullish periods for the S&P500.; 2030: Increased investor pessimism or fear. High volatility and the potential for significant downward corrections in the prices of the S&P500; and major stock indices.
TVC:VIX
by JRiquelmeTrading
1
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂️XAUUSD👉1H Price Targets 1944/ 1950🟡 Hey there, 🌀Well, as you can see, the price has finally broken above the resistance level of 1935. ◼My expectation for gold is that the price will experience a minor correction and confirmation before continuing to rise toward the desired initial target within the price range of 1944. To better understand the continuation of the price trend, we should observe how the price reacts to the resistance level. It's important to note that this week will bring important economic data, which could lead to significant market fluctuations. 💹 Just keep these scenarios in mind as you analyze the market. Remember, things can always change unexpectedly, so stay flexible in your trading approach. Wishing you loads of success in your trading adventures, my friend!✌ ❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️ Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help! And if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you! 🙌 daily timeframe analysis 👇
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by SasanSeifi
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂️USDCHF👉4H ⏭ 0.90200 / 0.90400 Hey there, buddy!✌ ◼In the 4-hour chart, as you can see, the price is just bouncing around between 0.89 and 0.90. Right now, the situation looks like this: the price might have a little dip after hitting the resistance at 0.90, but then it could bounce back up towards the targets around 0.90200 and the selling zone at 0.90400. 💹 ◼ We gotta keep an eye on how it reacts to the resistance levels to get a better idea of where it's heading. It might face some correction if it gets confirmed and hits the selling zone. But, we already have a probable trend identified, and the support at 0.89600 is quite important.❗ 🔹Just keep these scenarios in mind as you analyze the market. Remember, things can always change unexpectedly, so stay flexible in your trading approach. Wishing you loads of success in your trading adventures, my friend!✌ ❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️ 🔹Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help! 🔹And if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you! ✌
Long
by SasanSeifi
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂️EUR /USD 👉1H🔻 1.084 / 1.080 Hey there, buddy!✌ ◼In the 1-hour timeframe, we can see that the price has dropped from the significant resistance level at 1.10 and is currently fluctuating positively, trading around the price range of 1.084. It is currently being traded at 1.094.💹 ◼Here's a possible scenario to consider: If the price manages to stay below the resistance levels of 1.095 / 1.098, we may see a more significant correction toward the support range of 1.084 / 1.080 / 1.078. To gain a better understanding of the price's future movement, it's important to observe how it reacts to these resistance levels.💹 On the other hand, if the price consolidates above the resistance levels, there is a higher chance of further growth.❗ ⭕Just keep these scenarios in mind as you analyze the market. Remember, things can always change unexpectedly, so stay flexible in your trading approach. 🔹Wishing you loads of success in your trading adventures, my friend❗ ❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️ Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!✌ And if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you! 🙌
Short
by SasanSeifi
2
USD/JPY Pair Poised for Bullish Momentum, Targeting 142.000Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair experienced a decline to around 139.00 but has since shown signs of recovery. Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates further in order to combat persistent inflation in the United States. As a result, there is optimism that the asset will surpass the significant resistance level of 140.00. Interestingly, despite discussions surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's consideration of moving away from an ultra-dovish interest rate policy, the Japanese Yen has not gained strength. According to Bloomberg, experts monitoring the BoJ anticipate no policy adjustments in June, as Governor Ueda consistently supports the need for monetary stimulus to maintain inflation above the 2% target. In light of these factors, our outlook suggests a new bullish momentum with a target of 142.000.
Long
by FOREXN1
18
Trade report of 15-6Today the unemployment figures of the US have come out. These were the same as last month and the market was not counting on that. The Dollar slipped on this news. The ECB countered with an interest rate adjustment. Unlike the FED, the ECB will continue to raise interest rates to combat inflation. The interest rate was 4.00%. 0.25% higher than last month. After yesterday and today we have new positions to take: EURUSD : We executed a new buy at 1.08927. EURCAD : new buy executed at 1.44956. Target is 1.46500. GBPAUD : the pair has gone range. We take the sell trades out of the system. AUDUSD : a new buy at 0.68351 deposited. AUDJPY : a buy trade executed at 96,130. The target of this trade is 97,442. AUDCAD : in line with the other major pairs, this pair is certainly interesting to perform a buy in. It ran at 0.90949 with a target of 0.92150.
by Probeleg
1
AUD/USD Pair Climbs to One-Month High, Faces Consolidation AheadOn Tuesday, the AUD/USD pair reached its highest level in a month at 0.6807 following the release of US economic data. However, it later retreated, reducing its daily gains. The Australian dollar struggled to stay above 0.6800. Although the upward trend remains intact after rising in eight of the last nine trading days, it appears that some consolidation or correction is overdue. The latest data revealed that the Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence increased by 0.2% in June, in line with expectations. On the other hand, the National Australia Bank reported a larger-than-expected decline in the Business Conditions Index from 15 to 8 in May, along with a drop in the Confidence Index from 0 to -4. The most significant economic report of the week, which includes employment numbers, is scheduled for release on Thursday. It is expected to show a positive change of 15,000. The decision by the People's Bank of China to ease short-term policy rates contributed to the positive sentiment towards the Australian dollar. This move by Chinese policymakers could potentially lead to further rate cuts. Specifically, on Tuesday, the 7-day reverse repo rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.9%. However, the impact on commodities and Chinese equities remained limited. In the US, data indicated that consumer inflation eased in May, with the Consumer Price Index rising by 0.1% and the annual rate at 4.0%, the lowest reading since March 2021. These figures reinforced the Federal Reserve's decision to pause. On Wednesday, the FOMC will release new economic projections, and Chair Powell is expected to provide a message that might signal the possibility of more rate hikes despite recent numbers. Additionally, the US May Producer Price Index is due before the FOMC statement. The US dollar and risk sentiment will continue to be the key drivers in the next few hours. Market participants will closely analyze the inflation figures from the US ahead of the FOMC statement. If a positive tone prevails in equity markets during the Asian session and commodity prices continue to rise, the Australian dollar could strengthen. The performance of the AUD/USD pair after the FOMC statement will be crucial in determining its trajectory, particularly in the 0.6800 area. From a technical standpoint, we anticipate a potential reaction and drop to the 38.2% or 50% Fibonacci level from the previous swing low before resuming growth.
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD:US Inflation Annual Consumer Price Index Slows in MayIn May, the Annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US is projected to show a 4.2% increase, marking a slowdown compared to April's 4.9% rise. The Core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to grow at a slightly faster pace of 5.6% year on year, surpassing April's 5.5% growth. The forthcoming release of US CPI inflation data by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on June 13 at 12:30 GMT is expected to have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and the US Dollar markets. As a result, market participants have been closely monitoring the US Dollar's performance ahead of this crucial inflation report, particularly following the mixed May Nonfarm Payrolls report. The recent string of disappointing US economic indicators has reinforced expectations of the Federal Reserve opting for a pause in its interest rate hike trajectory during its upcoming two-day policy meeting. The outcome of the US CPI inflation data could shed new light on whether the Federal Reserve, the world's most influential central bank, will align with market expectations and pause its tightening cycle. Hence, this highly anticipated economic data release is likely to significantly impact the valuation of the US Dollar. What should we anticipate in the upcoming CPI data report? According to market consensus, the US Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by 4.2% in May compared to the previous year, indicating a deceleration from April's 4.9% increase. Conversely, the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to advance at a slightly quicker pace of 5.6%, surpassing April's growth rate of 5.5%. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index is forecasted to increase by 0.3% in May, following a 0.4% uptick in April. However, the Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.4%, maintaining the same pace as the previous month.
Short
by DAY_PROFITS
18
GBP/CAD Pair in Pullback Mode: Assessing Bullish OpportunitiesThe GBP/CAD pair is currently experiencing a pullback phase following a notable reversal at the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. This retracement suggests a temporary correction in the price movement. However, there is potential for a new bullish impulse to emerge, which could propel the price towards the 1.6900 level. If this bullish momentum continues, the pair may eventually approach the resistance level at 1.69200. Considering these factors, traders are actively seeking a long setup in this market. The pullback presents an opportunity to enter a long position, anticipating a continuation of the upward trend. Traders will closely monitor price action and key technical indicators to confirm the strength of the bullish bias and assess the likelihood of the price reaching the target level of 1.6900. It's important to exercise caution and employ appropriate risk management strategies while trading in order to navigate potential market fluctuations and optimize trade outcomes.
Long
by DAY_PROFITS
2
EUR/JPY Reaches Two-Week High on ECB-BoJ Policy DivergenceFor the second consecutive day, EUR/JPY has scaled higher, reaching a two-week high on Tuesday. The ongoing upward move is supported by the policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), favoring bullish sentiment. Traders are now eagerly awaiting the upcoming ECB decision and BoJ meeting before making fresh directional bets. During the early European session, the EUR/JPY cross continues its positive momentum, extending the steady climb witnessed in the previous day. The spot prices surge to over the 150.70-150.75 region, marking a two-week high. The upward trajectory of the EUR/JPY cross is driven by the increasing expectations of further policy tightening by the ECB. The shared currency benefits from this sentiment, with ECB President Christine Lagarde suggesting the likelihood of additional interest rate hikes. She stated that there is no clear evidence of a peak in underlying inflation, aligning with recent hawkish remarks from several ECB policymakers. Despite a decrease in the headline Eurozone CPI to 6.1% in May, these factors indicate that the central bank still has room to raise borrowing costs. In contrast, the BoJ is expected to maintain its dovish stance to support the economy and ensure the sustainability of recent positive signs. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the need to continue with ultra-loose monetary policy until durable wage growth accompanies price increases. Additionally, BoJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe recently expressed the overwhelming case for the continuation of ultra-easy monetary policy measures. These factors contribute to the boost in the EUR/JPY cross. However, concerns about a global economic slowdown and the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening to support the domestic currency could provide some support to the safe-haven JPY. Traders may exercise caution in placing aggressive bullish bets on the EUR/JPY cross and instead wait for the upcoming central bank events. The ECB decision on Thursday, followed by the BoJ meeting on Friday, pose significant risks. Nevertheless, considering the aforementioned fundamental backdrop, the path of least resistance for spot prices appears to be on the upside.
Long
by DAY_PROFITS
1
GBP/USD Rides High on Weaker US Dollar, but Challenges Lie AheadOn Monday, GBP/USD capitalized on the overall weakness of the US Dollar (USD) and surged to its highest level in a month, surpassing 1.2590. However, the pair now faces resistance at 1.2600, and the short-term technical outlook suggests the possibility of a downward correction before the next upward move. The positive market sentiment at the start of the week has prevented the safe-haven USD from remaining resilient against its main rivals, thereby supporting GBP/USD in maintaining a positive stance. The UK's FTSE 100 Index rose by 0.3%, while US stock index futures showed gains ranging from 0.1% to 0.3% during the European session. Earlier in the day, hawkish comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Jonathan Haskel further bolstered the strength of Pound Sterling. Haskel expressed his view that it is important to counter the risks of inflation momentum and did not rule out the possibility of further interest rate increases in the future, as stated in an article published in The Scotsman newspaper. On Tuesday, the UK's Office for National Statistics is set to release labor market data, including wage inflation figures. Average Earnings Excluding Bonus, a measure of annual wage inflation, is expected to rise to 6.9% in April from 6.7% in March. Currently, the markets have fully priced in a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike by the Bank of England at the upcoming policy meeting on June 22. Therefore, if wage inflation comes in weaker than expected, it could pose challenges for Pound Sterling to outperform other currencies. Conversely, a stronger-than-forecast reading may have a short-lived positive impact on the currency. The GBP/USD pair may experience significant volatility due to the release of May inflation data from the US and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech during the Lords Economic Affairs Committee hearing on Tuesday. From a technical analysis perspective, the pair exhibits a Gartley pattern, where there was a reversal in price followed by a recovery. This suggests a bearish setup is still plausible.
by FOREXN1
7
EUR/USD Hits Resistance at 1.0800 on Fed-ECB Policy Convergence The Euro has seen significant demand as market participants anticipate a decrease in the policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Despite concerns of a recession in Europe, an ECB interest rate hike is anticipated. Expectations of a softer US headline inflation due to a decrease in energy prices, while core inflation remains persistent, have contributed to the Euro's strength. This has pushed the EUR/USD pair closer to the key resistance level of 1.0800, following a strong recovery from 1.0743. This week, the Euro is expected to experience volatility as ECB President Christine Lagarde announces the June interest rate decision. Similarly, the US Dollar is likely to see increased volatility as the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate policy on Wednesday. Prior to these announcements, significant market action is anticipated in the EUR/USD pair ahead of the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May. Market participants are closely focused on the US inflation data as it will provide important guidance regarding the Fed's policy. It is expected that monthly headline inflation will accelerate at a slower pace of 0.2% compared to April's 0.4% pace. However, core CPI, which excludes oil and food prices, is projected to remain steady at 0.4%. The softening of headline inflation can be attributed to the negative impact from the energy component, while core CPI is expected to show persistence due to solid demand for durables and services. A weaker reading of US CPI would strengthen the case for a neutral interest rate policy announcement by the Federal Reserve, especially considering other factors such as the unemployment rate, jobless claims, and contraction in factory activities. There are indications that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious stance, as tight lending conditions imposed by US commercial banks are impeding inflationary pressures. Furthermore, President Joe Biden is set to announce the appointment of a Federal Reserve Vice Chair and fill the vacant Fed Board seat, which could influence the central bank's policy direction. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%, despite concerns of a deepening recession in Europe. The final reading of the Eurozone's Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) indicated a contraction of 0.1%, largely driven by declining factory activities. Germany, in particular, has already entered a recession after two consecutive quarters of contraction. An ECB interest rate hike combined with an unchanged policy stance by the Fed would narrow the policy divergence between the two central banks. The US Dollar Index is currently defending its immediate support level of 103.35 amid positive market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the price has dipped below 1.0800, and a rebound at this resistance level with a subsequent pullback is possible.
by FOREXN1
3
USD/CHF Struggles Amid Fed Rate Hike UncertaintyThe USD/CHF pair is struggling to take full advantage of its recent strong gains. Uncertainty surrounding the Fed's interest rate hike is keeping USD bulls on the defensive and limiting the upside. Traders are also hesitant to take aggressive positions ahead of the crucial US CPI report. During the Asian session on Tuesday, the USD/CHF pair is trading within a narrow range below the 0.9100 level, consolidating the significant gains it made in the past two days. The strengthening belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to postpone a rate hike this month continues to weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and act as a hindrance for the USD/CHF pair. It's important to note that several influential Fed officials have recently reinforced market expectations of a temporary pause in the US central bank's year-long tightening cycle. However, Fed fund futures indicate the possibility of a 25 basis point increase in the July FOMC meeting. This speculation gained traction following surprise rate hikes by other major central banks such as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) last week, indicating that the fight against inflation is ongoing. Consequently, the USD losses are limited, supporting the USD/CHF pair. Traders are also showing reluctance to take significant positions and are waiting for the release of the latest US consumer inflation data, which will be available later during the early North American session. This critical US CPI report will impact the Fed's policy outlook and drive USD demand, potentially providing momentum to the USD/CHF pair before the FOMC policy decision on Wednesday. Furthermore, the generally positive sentiment in equity markets may weaken the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF) and offer some support to the USD/CHF pair. However, a slight decline in US Treasury bond yields could discourage traders from anticipating a substantial USD recovery. As a result, the pair is more likely to continue its subdued or range-bound trading pattern on Tuesday. From a technical standpoint, there is a possibility of a price pullback within the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, followed by potential growth.
by FOREXN1
7
EUR/USD Surges Amid Soft US Employment DataThe EUR/USD faced downward pressure, remaining below the 1.0800 level. However, it experienced a notable upswing on Thursday, delivering its strongest performance in weeks, primarily driven by a weakened US Dollar. The Greenback faltered across the board as softer employment data from the US emerged ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting next week. This favorable outlook suggests the potential for further gains in the near term. Despite downward revisions in Euro area Q1 GDP, the Euro remained unaffected. The growth rate was adjusted from 0.1% QoQ to -0.1% QoQ. Growth varied across countries, with Italy and Spain displaying a 0.5% expansion, France at 0.2%, and Germany experiencing a contraction of 0.3%. These figures did not significantly alter expectations for the upcoming European Central Bank meeting. Market pricing already accounts for a 25 basis points rate hike. However, the updated macroeconomic forecasts may carry more significance. Thursday's rally in EUR/USD was propelled by a combination of factors, including a weakened US Dollar, increased risk appetite, and technical considerations. In the US, Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly rose to their highest level since October 2021. These figures further tempered expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. However, the crucial report to watch will be the release of the May Consumer Price Index next Tuesday, just a day before the FOMC decision. Interestingly, Wall Street responded positively to the negative employment numbers, boosting risk appetite and exerting additional downward pressure on the US Dollar. As we approach Friday, the highlight on the economic calendar will be a speech from ECB's Guindos. Currently, the US Dollar appears weak in the lead-up to the Asian session, potentially extending its losses after some consolidation. However, it's worth noting that a shift in market sentiment could limit the upside potential and potentially favor a sharp correction. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is now approaching a series of resistance levels, particularly around the 1.0800 mark, where a reversal may occur. Based on this analysis, our recommendation is to consider a short setup.
by FOREXN1
20